Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Last week, the A-share market showed many highlights, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 3,600 points during the week. The current market risk appetite is high, and the capital acceptance ability is strong. The policy and liquidity environment have entered a relatively favorable stage, and the expansion of the general trend is the main theme of the market. However, as the market rises rapidly, structural risks are emerging, and there is a game between fundamental pressure and policy hedging. This week, the market is expected to continue the pattern of shock and strength. In the short term, it is recommended to pay attention to domestic policy guidance and the results of China-US trade talks [30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **A-share Indexes**: On July 25, the three major A-share indexes collectively declined slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.33% to 3,593.66 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.22% to 11,168.14 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.23% to 2,340.06 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 178.73 billion yuan [2]. - **Bond Market**: Last week, 30-year and 10-year treasury bond futures rose, while 5-year and 2-year treasury bond futures fell. The 30-year treasury bond futures had a weekly decline of 2.14% and closed at 117.950 yuan; the 10-year treasury bond futures had a weekly decline of 0.58% and closed at 108.180 yuan; the 5-year treasury bond futures had a weekly decline of 0.41% and closed at 105.570 yuan; the 2-year treasury bond futures had a weekly decline of 0.12% and closed at 102.310 yuan [3]. - **Stock Index Futures Market**: Last week, the domestic stock index futures market showed a continuous strengthening trend. The CSI 300 futures (IF2509) closed at 4,116.0 with a weekly increase of 1.84%; the SSE 50 futures (IH2509) closed at 2,796.8 with a weekly increase of 1.08%; the CSI 500 futures (IC2509) closed at 6,216.0 with a weekly increase of 3.59%; the CSI 1000 futures (IM2509) closed at 6,605.8 with a weekly increase of 3.00% [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Industrial Profit**: In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year-on-year. From January to June, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 3.4365 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. From January to June, the profits of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 13.7 times year-on-year, the agricultural and sideline food processing industry increased by 22.8%, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 13%, and the mining industry's profits decreased by 30.3% year-on-year [8]. - **Agricultural Policy**: Ten departments including the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Agricultural Product Consumption", aiming to optimize the supply of high-quality green products, meet multi-level consumption needs, and promote the R & D of new food ingredients [8]. - **US Economic Data and Policy**: The Federal Reserve will hold an interest rate meeting from July 29 to 30. The market generally expects the Fed to keep the interest rate in the current range of 4.25% - 4.5%. The US will release the second-quarter GDP preliminary data on July 30, with the market expecting an annualized quarterly rate of 2.5%. On August 1, the US will release the July non-farm payroll data, with the market expecting an increase of 102,000 in employment and an increase in the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.2% [9]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 165.63 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, 40 billion yuan of MLF operations, and 10 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed deposit operations this week. There were 172.68 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, 20 billion yuan of MLF maturities, and 12 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed deposit maturities. The net investment for the whole week was 10.95 billion yuan. Next week, there will be 165.63 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities [9][10]. 3.3 Valuation Analysis - **Index Valuation**: As of July 18, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 13.59 times, with a percentile of 77.45%, and the PB was 1.43 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 11.48 times, with a percentile of 85.1%, and the PB was 1.27 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 41.19 times, with a percentile of 66.27%, and the PB was 2.29 times [14]. - **Stock-Bond Yield Spread**: The stock-bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the treasury bond yield. Two formulas are provided for calculation. The data of the CSI 300 stock-bond yield spread is presented [18].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On July 18, 2025, China's A-share market showed a slight upward trend. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.50% to 3534.48 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.37% to 10913.84 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.34% to 2277.15 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.5711 trillion yuan, an increase of 31.7 billion yuan from the previous day [3]. - Last week, the domestic stock index futures market showed a strengthening trend. The weekly increases of the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures were 1.21%, 0.56%, 1.36%, and 1.48% respectively [3]. - Last week, 30-year and 10-year treasury bond futures rose, while 5-year and 2-year treasury bond futures fell [4]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - The National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference held a symposium on the analysis of the macroeconomic situation in the first half of 2025. Some members put forward suggestions on stabilizing and activating the capital market, promoting technological innovation in the private sector, and other aspects [8]. - From 2020 to 2024, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased from 39.1 trillion yuan to 48.3 trillion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5%. It is expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year [8]. - In the first half of this year, central state-owned enterprises achieved an added value of 5.2 trillion yuan and completed fixed - asset investment of 2 trillion yuan. In the second half of the year, they will focus on developing new - quality productive forces [8]. - From July 12 - 18, there were 97 domestic investment and financing events, a 21.25% increase from the previous week. The total disclosed financing amount was about 5.041 billion yuan, an 8.85% increase. The artificial intelligence field had the highest disclosed financing amount, about 2.486 billion yuan [9]. - Last week, the central bank conducted 1.7268 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1.2011 trillion yuan. This week, 1.7268 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases, 200 billion yuan of MLF, and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits are due [9]. 3. Valuation Analysis - As of July 18, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 13.32 times, with a percentile of 72.16%, and the PB was 1.40 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 11.33 times, with a percentile of 82.75%, and the PB was 1.25 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 40.1 times, with a percentile of 61.96%, and the PB was 2.23 times [12]. - The report introduced two formulas for calculating the stock - bond yield spread: one is based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [19]. 4. Comprehensive Analysis - The main contract of the CSI 300 stock index futures (IF2509) closed at 4041.80 points on July 18, with a weekly increase of 1.21%. The current low risk - free interest rate and reduced supply of high - yield risk - free assets have created favorable conditions for incremental funds to enter the market. The market is expected to continue a moderately strong trend this week, but there may be insufficient momentum for a significant upward movement in the short term. Traders are advised to control risks [28].

Group 1 - The core concept emphasizes the importance of foundational knowledge in investment and fund selection, suggesting that a solid understanding of investment basics is crucial for success [2] Group 2 - The article introduces the concept of the equity-bond yield spread, which is the difference between the expected returns of stocks and bonds, highlighting its significance in assessing investment value [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of a stable valuation system for investors to navigate market fluctuations and make informed decisions, especially during periods of market uncertainty [3][4]. Group 1: Market Valuation Insights - On September 12, 2024, the overall market PB reached a historical low, indicating potential investment opportunities [6]. - The current valuation of the A-share market is at 42.36°C, which is considered a normal valuation stage, suggesting that while it is not overly expensive, the safety margin is lower than before [15][23]. - The article emphasizes that opportunities often arise during periods of extreme pessimism, as seen in past market conditions [9][10]. Group 2: Valuation Metrics - The "All Market Temperature" is calculated using a weighted average of PE and PB ratios, with the current temperature indicating a normal valuation phase [15]. - The Graham Index, which reflects the potential return of equity markets relative to risk-free rates, has been adjusted to lower its weight due to recent distortions caused by declining interest rates [16]. - The stock-bond yield spread, currently at 3.32%, indicates that the equity market's earnings yield is approximately double the risk-free rate, which has been a driving force behind recent market rallies [23]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The article advises against excessive greed or chasing high returns, as current valuations suggest a normal range with insufficient safety margins for new investments [25]. - It highlights the importance of a valuation judgment as a foundational element for long-term investment strategies, helping investors maintain confidence during market uncertainties [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The A-share market showed a volatile upward trend last week, with the futures market showing a differentiated pattern. The market has strong expectations for policies at the end of July, which has increased risk appetite. However, factors such as weak manufacturing PMI, deflation pressure, and insufficient domestic demand have affected the performance of some contracts. The loose liquidity environment supports the A-share market, and the market may maintain an upward - biased state in the short term. Traders are advised to avoid blind chasing and seize callback opportunities [2][20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - On July 11, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01% to 3510.18 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.61% to 10696.10 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.80% to 2207.10 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1712.1 billion yuan, an increase of 218 billion yuan from the previous day. Industry sectors mostly rose, with shipbuilding, small metals, securities, diversified finance, and software development leading the gains, while glass fiber, engineering consulting services, and the banking sector leading the losses [2]. - Last week, the domestic stock index futures market showed a differentiated trend. The weekly increases of the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures were 1.46%, 1.27%, 2.69%, and 3.40% respectively [2]. - Last week, 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures rose, while 5 - year and 2 - year treasury bond futures fell [3]. Fundamental Analysis - The Ministry of Finance requires state - owned commercial insurance companies to improve asset - liability management and adjust the assessment methods of "return on net assets" and "(state - owned) capital preservation and appreciation rate" [7]. - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange will revise the compilation plan of the ChiNext Composite Index on July 25, including introducing a monthly elimination mechanism for risk - warning stocks and an ESG negative elimination mechanism [7]. - As of July 12, 483 companies have disclosed their semi - annual performance forecasts, of which 281 reported good news, accounting for 58.18%, and 155 are expected to have a net profit increase of over 100% [8]. - Last week, the central bank's open market had a net withdrawal of 22.65 billion yuan. This week, 42.57 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire, and 10 billion yuan of MLF will expire on July 15 [8]. Valuation Analysis - As of July 11, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 13.34 times, the percentile was 72.35%, and the PB was 1.39 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 11.42 times, the percentile was 84.12%, and the PB was 1.25 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 39.33 times, the percentile was 58.24%, and the PB was 2.18 times [9]. - Two formulas for calculating the stock - bond yield spread are provided, one based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio and the other based on the dividend yield [15][17]. Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the main contracts of stock index futures showed a volatile upward trend, but there were obvious differences among varieties. The market has strong expectations for policies at the end of July, which has increased risk appetite. However, factors such as weak manufacturing PMI, deflation pressure, and insufficient domestic demand have affected the performance of some contracts. The loose liquidity environment supports the A - share market, and the market may maintain an upward - biased state in the short term. Traders are advised to avoid blind chasing and seize callback opportunities [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market ended its weak oscillation last week, with major indices rebounding across the board and the market center significantly shifting upwards. However, trading volume shrank in the second half of the week, indicating increased capital divergence. The index rebound was due to the Fed's more moderate stance on short - term interest rate cuts, the inflow of funds into the stablecoin sector due to regulatory policies, and the limited impact of the end of the Middle East (Israel - Iran) geopolitical conflict on the A - share market. It is expected that the stock index will likely oscillate in the future, with limited upside due to insufficient financing demand and a weak inflation environment, but a low probability of a significant decline due to the support of allocation - type funds. In a stable volatility environment, the calendar spread strategy can be used for stock index options to earn Theta returns [28][29]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes Review - On June 27, the three major A - share indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.70% to close at 3424.23 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.34% to 10378.55 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.47% to 2124.34 points. Most industry sectors rose, with non - ferrous metals, diversified finance, professional services, small metals, electronic components, power supply equipment, and communication services leading the gains, while banks, insurance, the mining industry, and tourism hotels led the losses. Last week, stock index futures closed up collectively, with small - and medium - cap varieties rising significantly more than large - cap blue - chips. The four major stock index futures' main contracts saw both long and short positions increase significantly, with short - position increases greater than long - position increases, especially in the IM contract [5]. - Last week, 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures fell, while 5 - year and 2 - year treasury bonds rose slightly. The 30 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.37% to close at 120.89 yuan, the 10 - year fell 0.11% to 109.045 yuan, the 5 - year rose 0.01% to 106.265 yuan, and the 2 - year rose 0.03% to 102.542 yuan [6]. - Last week, the central bank's open - market net injection was 126.72 billion yuan, resulting in abundant short - term liquidity [7][9]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From January to May, the total operating revenue of state - owned and state - holding enterprises nationwide decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the total profit decreased by 2.8% year - on - year [8]. - The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee's 2025 Q2 meeting noted that macro - control has been strengthened this year, with moderately loose monetary policy, enhanced counter - cyclical adjustment, and the use of multiple monetary policy tools to serve high - quality economic development. The efficiency of the loan market quotation rate reform has continued to be released, the deposit rate market - based adjustment mechanism has played an effective role, the transmission efficiency of monetary policy has increased, and social financing costs are at a historically low level. The foreign exchange market supply and demand are basically balanced, the current account surplus is stable, foreign exchange reserves are sufficient, and the RMB exchange rate is floating bidirectionally and remains basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. The financial market is generally operating stably. The current external environment is more complex and severe, with weakening global economic growth momentum, increasing trade barriers, and differentiated economic performances among major economies, as well as uncertainties in inflation trends and monetary policy adjustments [8]. - The US dollar's "bull - to - bear" trend has advanced further. The RMB exchange rate's appreciation has been relatively "restrained." Since June, more emerging - market investment funds have shifted their RMB positions from short to long, expecting the RMB's equilibrium exchange rate to rise to between 7.13 and 7.18 due to the easing of tariff frictions and the increasing expectation of an early Fed rate cut. They are also watching China's economic fundamentals and geopolitical risks to determine if the RMB will have a catch - up rally [9]. - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges are seeking public opinions on adjusting the price limit ratio of risk - warning stocks on the main board from 5% to 10%, to be consistent with other main - board stocks [9]. - Next week, 202.75 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open - market operations, with 22.05 billion, 40.65 billion, 36.53 billion, 50.93 billion, and 52.59 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [10][11]. 3.3 Valuation Analysis - As of June 28, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 13.02 times, with a percentile of 64.31%, and the PB was 1.36 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 11.19 times, with a percentile of 80.39%, and the PB was 1.22 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 38.47 times, with a percentile of 52.16%, and the PB was 2.13 times [13]. - The report also introduced the concept and calculation formulas of the stock - bond yield spread, including using the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio and the dividend yield [22][23].

Group 1: Market Performance - On June 20, the three major A-share indices closed down. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07% to 3359.90 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.47% to 10005.03 points, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.84% to 2009.89 points. There were more falling sectors than rising ones [2]. - Last week, stock index futures closed down. The decline of small and medium - cap varieties was significantly greater than that of large - cap blue - chips. The CSI 300 futures (IF2506) fell 0.19%, the SSE 50 futures (IH2506) rose 0.38%, the CSI 500 futures (IC2506) dropped 1.42%, and the CSI 1000 futures (IM2506) declined 1.14% [2][3]. - Last week, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The 30 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.71%, the 10 - year rose 0.21%, the 5 - year rose 0.12%, and the 2 - year rose 0.09% [4]. Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - From January to May, the national general public budget revenue was 9662.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. Tax revenue was 7915.6 billion yuan, down 1.6% year - on - year, and non - tax revenue was 1746.7 billion yuan, up 6.2% year - on - year. Central revenue decreased by 3%, while local revenue increased by 1.9%. The national general public budget expenditure was 11295.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [10]. - The inter - connection of the fast payment systems between the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong was launched, and cross - border payment services were launched in Shenzhen on June 22. The initial participating institutions included major banks in the mainland and Hong Kong [10]. - Last week, the central bank conducted 960.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations. This week, there are 858.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 182 billion yuan of MLF maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 79.9 billion yuan. This week, 960.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 100 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit will mature [11]. - On June 21, US President Trump claimed that the US had attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities. US B - 2 bombers were reported to be involved, and Iran had no response [15]. - On June 20, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0% and the 5 - year - plus LPR was 3.5%, remaining stable compared to the previous period [15]. - In the first five months of this year, the balance of household time deposits increased monthly, reaching 119.34 trillion yuan in May. The proportion of household time deposits reached a record high in May [15]. Group 3: Valuation Analysis - As of June 20, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 12.83 times with a quantile of 60%, and the PB was 1.34 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 11.08 times with a quantile of 78.04%, and the PB was 1.21 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 36.87 times with a quantile of 42.35%, and the PB was 2.04 times [16][17]. Group 4: Other Data - The equity - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the treasury bond yield. There are two formulas for calculating it: one is based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [23][24]. Group 5: Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the A - share market continued its weak and volatile pattern. External pressure increased due to the Fed's hawkish stance and the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, while internal momentum was insufficient due to the policy vacuum and doubts about economic recovery [27]. - In the short term, the A - share index futures are difficult to break the oscillation pattern. The strategy should be "box threshold operation + strict stop - loss", and maintain a neutral position to wait for policy or geopolitical signals [27].

Group 1: Report Title and General Information - Report Title: Volatility Narrowing and the Stalemate between Long and Short Positions [1] - Report Author: Investment Consulting Department of Hualong Futures - Report Date: June 9, 2025 [2] - Financial Sector Researcher: Deng Xiayu [4] Group 2: Market Review - IF2506 closed at 3855.4 points, up 33.0 points or 0.86% from the previous week [4] - IH2506 closed at 2673.6 points, up 6.4 points or 0.24% from the previous week [4] - IC2506 closed at 5725.4 points, up 97.6 points or 1.73% from the previous week [4] - IM2506 closed at 6100.2 points, up 134.2 points or 2.25% from the previous week [4] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will visit the UK from June 8 - 13 and hold the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism with the US [7] Group 4: Valuation Analysis - As of June 8, the PE of the CSI 500 Index was 29.11 times, with a quantile of 68.63% and a PB of 1.8 times [9] - The PE of the SSE 50 Index was 10.9 times, with a quantile of 74.9% and a PB of 1.2 times [9] - The PE of the CSI 300 Index was 12.56 times, with a quantile of 53.73% and a PB of 1.31 times [9] - The PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 40.05 times, with a quantile of 60.39% and a PB of 2.09 times [9] Group 5: Other Data - Stock - Bond Yield Spread - Stock - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the government bond yield. There are two calculation formulas [17] - Formula 1: Stock - bond yield spread = (1 / Index static PE) - 10 - year government bond yield [17] - Formula 2: Stock - bond yield spread = 10 - year government bond yield - Index static dividend yield [17] Group 6: Comprehensive Analysis - The A - share market showed an oscillating pattern with significant differentiation among sectors. The CSI 1000 and CSI 500 Indexes outperformed the SSE 50 and CSI 300 Indexes [20] - The overall market showed a relatively strong trend, but the future upward space may be limited [20] - Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to macro - economic data, Sino - US economic and trade negotiation policies, and external market fluctuations [20]

Group 1: Report Core View - The weak performance of overseas markets during the "Dragon Boat Festival" may drag down the A-share market. It is expected that the A-share market will shift from the previous upward oscillation to a downward oscillation after the festival. Investors are advised to closely monitor market dynamics, flexibly adjust their position allocations, and reasonably control their position levels [1][15] Group 2: Market Performance - Last week, IF2506 closed at 3,822.4 points, down 13.0 points or 0.62% from the previous week. IH2506 closed at 2,667.2 points, down 25.8 points or 0.96% from the previous week [4] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - On May 31, local time, the US Trade Representative's Office announced an extension of the tariff exemptions for some products in the Section 301 investigation into China's actions, policies, and practices regarding technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation. These exemptions, originally set to expire on May 31, 2025, have been extended to August 31, 2025 [7] Group 4: Valuation Analysis - As of June 3, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 12.46 times, with a quantile of 51.18%, and the PB was 1.3 times. The PE of the SSE 50 Index was 10.86 times, with a quantile of 72.16%, and the PB was 1.19 times. The PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 40.06 times, with a quantile of 59.8%, and the PB was 2.01 times [7] Group 5: Other Data - The equity - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the government bond yield. There are two formulas for calculating the equity - bond yield spread: one is based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [12]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - Last week, IF2506 closed at 3846.2 points, up 37.4 points or 0.01% from the previous week; IH2506 closed at 2693.0 points, down 2.2 points or 0.08%; IC2506 closed at 5561.8 points, down 40.0 points or 0.71%; IM2506 closed at 5872.0 points, down 61.8 points or 1.04% [3] 2. Fundamental Analysis - On May 20, 2025, the 1 - year LPR was 3.00% and the 5 - year - plus LPR was 3.50%, both down 10 basis points from the previous period [6] 3. Valuation Analysis - As of May 25, the PE of the CSI 500 Index was 28.53 times, the quantile was 65.1%, and the PB was 1.76 times; the PE of the SSE 300 Index was 12.55 times, the quantile was 52.55%, and the PB was 1.31 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 10.9 times, the quantile was 73.9%, and the PB was 1.2 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 39.04 times, the quantile was 55.49%, and the PB was 2.03 times [8] 4. Other Data - The equity - bond spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the government bond yield. There are two formulas: one is (1/Index static PE) - 10 - year government bond yield; the other is 10 - year government bond yield - Index static dividend yield [17] 5. Core View - The A - share market's oscillation pattern has changed, showing weak characteristics. The market turnover has decreased, and sector rotation is frequent without sustainability. It is expected that the A - share market may shift from oscillation to weak oscillation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 Indexes may underperform the SSE 50 and SSE 300 Indexes. Investors are advised to be cautious, closely monitor macroeconomic data, policy trends, and external market fluctuations. They can consider lightly short - selling the CSI 1000 Index with the 5 - day moving average as the stop - loss point or selling small - cap stock indexes and buying large - cap stock indexes for arbitrage [20]