Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The A-share market showed a volatile upward trend last week, with the futures market showing a differentiated pattern. The market has strong expectations for policies at the end of July, which has increased risk appetite. However, factors such as weak manufacturing PMI, deflation pressure, and insufficient domestic demand have affected the performance of some contracts. The loose liquidity environment supports the A-share market, and the market may maintain an upward - biased state in the short term. Traders are advised to avoid blind chasing and seize callback opportunities [2][20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - On July 11, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01% to 3510.18 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.61% to 10696.10 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.80% to 2207.10 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1712.1 billion yuan, an increase of 218 billion yuan from the previous day. Industry sectors mostly rose, with shipbuilding, small metals, securities, diversified finance, and software development leading the gains, while glass fiber, engineering consulting services, and the banking sector leading the losses [2]. - Last week, the domestic stock index futures market showed a differentiated trend. The weekly increases of the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures were 1.46%, 1.27%, 2.69%, and 3.40% respectively [2]. - Last week, 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures rose, while 5 - year and 2 - year treasury bond futures fell [3]. Fundamental Analysis - The Ministry of Finance requires state - owned commercial insurance companies to improve asset - liability management and adjust the assessment methods of "return on net assets" and "(state - owned) capital preservation and appreciation rate" [7]. - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange will revise the compilation plan of the ChiNext Composite Index on July 25, including introducing a monthly elimination mechanism for risk - warning stocks and an ESG negative elimination mechanism [7]. - As of July 12, 483 companies have disclosed their semi - annual performance forecasts, of which 281 reported good news, accounting for 58.18%, and 155 are expected to have a net profit increase of over 100% [8]. - Last week, the central bank's open market had a net withdrawal of 22.65 billion yuan. This week, 42.57 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire, and 10 billion yuan of MLF will expire on July 15 [8]. Valuation Analysis - As of July 11, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 13.34 times, the percentile was 72.35%, and the PB was 1.39 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 11.42 times, the percentile was 84.12%, and the PB was 1.25 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 39.33 times, the percentile was 58.24%, and the PB was 2.18 times [9]. - Two formulas for calculating the stock - bond yield spread are provided, one based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio and the other based on the dividend yield [15][17]. Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the main contracts of stock index futures showed a volatile upward trend, but there were obvious differences among varieties. The market has strong expectations for policies at the end of July, which has increased risk appetite. However, factors such as weak manufacturing PMI, deflation pressure, and insufficient domestic demand have affected the performance of some contracts. The loose liquidity environment supports the A - share market, and the market may maintain an upward - biased state in the short term. Traders are advised to avoid blind chasing and seize callback opportunities [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market ended its weak oscillation last week, with major indices rebounding across the board and the market center significantly shifting upwards. However, trading volume shrank in the second half of the week, indicating increased capital divergence. The index rebound was due to the Fed's more moderate stance on short - term interest rate cuts, the inflow of funds into the stablecoin sector due to regulatory policies, and the limited impact of the end of the Middle East (Israel - Iran) geopolitical conflict on the A - share market. It is expected that the stock index will likely oscillate in the future, with limited upside due to insufficient financing demand and a weak inflation environment, but a low probability of a significant decline due to the support of allocation - type funds. In a stable volatility environment, the calendar spread strategy can be used for stock index options to earn Theta returns [28][29]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes Review - On June 27, the three major A - share indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.70% to close at 3424.23 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.34% to 10378.55 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.47% to 2124.34 points. Most industry sectors rose, with non - ferrous metals, diversified finance, professional services, small metals, electronic components, power supply equipment, and communication services leading the gains, while banks, insurance, the mining industry, and tourism hotels led the losses. Last week, stock index futures closed up collectively, with small - and medium - cap varieties rising significantly more than large - cap blue - chips. The four major stock index futures' main contracts saw both long and short positions increase significantly, with short - position increases greater than long - position increases, especially in the IM contract [5]. - Last week, 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures fell, while 5 - year and 2 - year treasury bonds rose slightly. The 30 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.37% to close at 120.89 yuan, the 10 - year fell 0.11% to 109.045 yuan, the 5 - year rose 0.01% to 106.265 yuan, and the 2 - year rose 0.03% to 102.542 yuan [6]. - Last week, the central bank's open - market net injection was 126.72 billion yuan, resulting in abundant short - term liquidity [7][9]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From January to May, the total operating revenue of state - owned and state - holding enterprises nationwide decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the total profit decreased by 2.8% year - on - year [8]. - The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee's 2025 Q2 meeting noted that macro - control has been strengthened this year, with moderately loose monetary policy, enhanced counter - cyclical adjustment, and the use of multiple monetary policy tools to serve high - quality economic development. The efficiency of the loan market quotation rate reform has continued to be released, the deposit rate market - based adjustment mechanism has played an effective role, the transmission efficiency of monetary policy has increased, and social financing costs are at a historically low level. The foreign exchange market supply and demand are basically balanced, the current account surplus is stable, foreign exchange reserves are sufficient, and the RMB exchange rate is floating bidirectionally and remains basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. The financial market is generally operating stably. The current external environment is more complex and severe, with weakening global economic growth momentum, increasing trade barriers, and differentiated economic performances among major economies, as well as uncertainties in inflation trends and monetary policy adjustments [8]. - The US dollar's "bull - to - bear" trend has advanced further. The RMB exchange rate's appreciation has been relatively "restrained." Since June, more emerging - market investment funds have shifted their RMB positions from short to long, expecting the RMB's equilibrium exchange rate to rise to between 7.13 and 7.18 due to the easing of tariff frictions and the increasing expectation of an early Fed rate cut. They are also watching China's economic fundamentals and geopolitical risks to determine if the RMB will have a catch - up rally [9]. - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges are seeking public opinions on adjusting the price limit ratio of risk - warning stocks on the main board from 5% to 10%, to be consistent with other main - board stocks [9]. - Next week, 202.75 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open - market operations, with 22.05 billion, 40.65 billion, 36.53 billion, 50.93 billion, and 52.59 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [10][11]. 3.3 Valuation Analysis - As of June 28, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 13.02 times, with a percentile of 64.31%, and the PB was 1.36 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 11.19 times, with a percentile of 80.39%, and the PB was 1.22 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 38.47 times, with a percentile of 52.16%, and the PB was 2.13 times [13]. - The report also introduced the concept and calculation formulas of the stock - bond yield spread, including using the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio and the dividend yield [22][23].

Group 1: Market Performance - On June 20, the three major A-share indices closed down. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07% to 3359.90 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.47% to 10005.03 points, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.84% to 2009.89 points. There were more falling sectors than rising ones [2]. - Last week, stock index futures closed down. The decline of small and medium - cap varieties was significantly greater than that of large - cap blue - chips. The CSI 300 futures (IF2506) fell 0.19%, the SSE 50 futures (IH2506) rose 0.38%, the CSI 500 futures (IC2506) dropped 1.42%, and the CSI 1000 futures (IM2506) declined 1.14% [2][3]. - Last week, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The 30 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.71%, the 10 - year rose 0.21%, the 5 - year rose 0.12%, and the 2 - year rose 0.09% [4]. Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - From January to May, the national general public budget revenue was 9662.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. Tax revenue was 7915.6 billion yuan, down 1.6% year - on - year, and non - tax revenue was 1746.7 billion yuan, up 6.2% year - on - year. Central revenue decreased by 3%, while local revenue increased by 1.9%. The national general public budget expenditure was 11295.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [10]. - The inter - connection of the fast payment systems between the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong was launched, and cross - border payment services were launched in Shenzhen on June 22. The initial participating institutions included major banks in the mainland and Hong Kong [10]. - Last week, the central bank conducted 960.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations. This week, there are 858.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 182 billion yuan of MLF maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 79.9 billion yuan. This week, 960.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 100 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit will mature [11]. - On June 21, US President Trump claimed that the US had attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities. US B - 2 bombers were reported to be involved, and Iran had no response [15]. - On June 20, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0% and the 5 - year - plus LPR was 3.5%, remaining stable compared to the previous period [15]. - In the first five months of this year, the balance of household time deposits increased monthly, reaching 119.34 trillion yuan in May. The proportion of household time deposits reached a record high in May [15]. Group 3: Valuation Analysis - As of June 20, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 12.83 times with a quantile of 60%, and the PB was 1.34 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 11.08 times with a quantile of 78.04%, and the PB was 1.21 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 36.87 times with a quantile of 42.35%, and the PB was 2.04 times [16][17]. Group 4: Other Data - The equity - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the treasury bond yield. There are two formulas for calculating it: one is based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [23][24]. Group 5: Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the A - share market continued its weak and volatile pattern. External pressure increased due to the Fed's hawkish stance and the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, while internal momentum was insufficient due to the policy vacuum and doubts about economic recovery [27]. - In the short term, the A - share index futures are difficult to break the oscillation pattern. The strategy should be "box threshold operation + strict stop - loss", and maintain a neutral position to wait for policy or geopolitical signals [27].

Group 1: Report Title and General Information - Report Title: Volatility Narrowing and the Stalemate between Long and Short Positions [1] - Report Author: Investment Consulting Department of Hualong Futures - Report Date: June 9, 2025 [2] - Financial Sector Researcher: Deng Xiayu [4] Group 2: Market Review - IF2506 closed at 3855.4 points, up 33.0 points or 0.86% from the previous week [4] - IH2506 closed at 2673.6 points, up 6.4 points or 0.24% from the previous week [4] - IC2506 closed at 5725.4 points, up 97.6 points or 1.73% from the previous week [4] - IM2506 closed at 6100.2 points, up 134.2 points or 2.25% from the previous week [4] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will visit the UK from June 8 - 13 and hold the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism with the US [7] Group 4: Valuation Analysis - As of June 8, the PE of the CSI 500 Index was 29.11 times, with a quantile of 68.63% and a PB of 1.8 times [9] - The PE of the SSE 50 Index was 10.9 times, with a quantile of 74.9% and a PB of 1.2 times [9] - The PE of the CSI 300 Index was 12.56 times, with a quantile of 53.73% and a PB of 1.31 times [9] - The PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 40.05 times, with a quantile of 60.39% and a PB of 2.09 times [9] Group 5: Other Data - Stock - Bond Yield Spread - Stock - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the government bond yield. There are two calculation formulas [17] - Formula 1: Stock - bond yield spread = (1 / Index static PE) - 10 - year government bond yield [17] - Formula 2: Stock - bond yield spread = 10 - year government bond yield - Index static dividend yield [17] Group 6: Comprehensive Analysis - The A - share market showed an oscillating pattern with significant differentiation among sectors. The CSI 1000 and CSI 500 Indexes outperformed the SSE 50 and CSI 300 Indexes [20] - The overall market showed a relatively strong trend, but the future upward space may be limited [20] - Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to macro - economic data, Sino - US economic and trade negotiation policies, and external market fluctuations [20]

Group 1: Report Core View - The weak performance of overseas markets during the "Dragon Boat Festival" may drag down the A-share market. It is expected that the A-share market will shift from the previous upward oscillation to a downward oscillation after the festival. Investors are advised to closely monitor market dynamics, flexibly adjust their position allocations, and reasonably control their position levels [1][15] Group 2: Market Performance - Last week, IF2506 closed at 3,822.4 points, down 13.0 points or 0.62% from the previous week. IH2506 closed at 2,667.2 points, down 25.8 points or 0.96% from the previous week [4] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - On May 31, local time, the US Trade Representative's Office announced an extension of the tariff exemptions for some products in the Section 301 investigation into China's actions, policies, and practices regarding technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation. These exemptions, originally set to expire on May 31, 2025, have been extended to August 31, 2025 [7] Group 4: Valuation Analysis - As of June 3, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 12.46 times, with a quantile of 51.18%, and the PB was 1.3 times. The PE of the SSE 50 Index was 10.86 times, with a quantile of 72.16%, and the PB was 1.19 times. The PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 40.06 times, with a quantile of 59.8%, and the PB was 2.01 times [7] Group 5: Other Data - The equity - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the government bond yield. There are two formulas for calculating the equity - bond yield spread: one is based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [12]

研究报告 股指周报 市场震荡格局生变，弱势特征初现 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | 金融板块研究员：邓夏羽 | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F0246320 | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0003212 | | | | | 电话：13519655433 | | | | | 邮箱：383566967@qq.com | | | | | 报告日期：2025 5 20 | 年 | 月 | 日星期一 | 【行情复盘】： 上周 IF2506 报收于 3846.2 点，相较前一周 上涨 37.4 点，涨幅 0.01%。IH2506 报收于 2693.0 点，相较前一周下跌 2.2 点，跌幅 0.08%。IC2506 报收于 5561.8 点，相较前一周下跌 40.0 点，跌 幅 0.71%。IM2506 报收于 5872.0 点，相较前一周 下跌 61.8 点，跌幅 1.04%。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 *特 ...

上周 IF2505 报收于 3840.2 点，相较前一周 上涨 88.2 点，跌幅 2.35%。IH2505 报收于 2683.6 点，相较前一周上涨 56.4 点，涨幅 2.15%。IC2505 报收于 5702.4 点，相较前一周上涨 112.2 点，涨 幅 2.01%。IM2505 报收于 6056.2 点，相较前一周 上涨 150.8 点，涨幅 2.55%。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 研究报告 股指周报 市场短期震荡上行可期 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 金融板块研究员：邓夏羽 期货从业资格证号：F0246320 投资咨询资格证号：Z0003212 电话：13519655433 邮箱：383566967@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 5 月 12 日星期一 【行情复盘】： *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 研究报告 1、2025 年 4 月份，全国居民消费价格同比下降 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The A-share market is expected to continue the trend of volatile upward movement after the holiday, and the gap formed on April 7 is expected to be filled. Investors are advised to closely monitor market dynamics, flexibly adjust their position allocation, and reasonably control their position levels [27][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Market Review - Last week, IF2505 closed at 3752.0 points, down 22.8 points or 0.6% from the previous week. IH2505 closed at 2627.2 points, down 17.8 points or 0.67% from the previous week [5]. (2) Fundamental Analysis - In April, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level [7]. - In April, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, still above the critical point, indicating that the non-manufacturing sector continued to expand [9]. - In April, the Composite PMI Output Index was 50.2%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, still above the critical point, indicating that China's business production and operation activities continued to expand [11]. (3) Valuation Analysis - As of May 5, the PE of the CSI 500 Index was 28.3 times, the quantile was 63.14%, and the PB was 1.74 times. The PE of the SSE 50 Index was 10.65 times, the quantile was 61.76%, and the PB was 1.17 times. The PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 40.06 times, the quantile was 59.8%, and the PB was 2.01 times [16]. (4) Other Data - The stock-bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the government bond yield. There are two formulas for calculating the stock-bond yield spread: one is based on the reciprocal of the price-earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [23][24]. (5) Comprehensive Analysis - During the pre-holiday trading period, the A-share market showed a volatile and weak adjustment trend, and investor sentiment was relatively cautious. During the "May Day" holiday, the Hong Kong stock market performed strongly, which is expected to inject positive momentum into the A-share market after the holiday [27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The sharp decline in the US stock market has put significant downward pressure on the A-share market. The US announced a "reciprocal tariff" policy, leading to a sharp drop in the three major US stock indexes on the 4th. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below the 40,000-point mark, and the Nasdaq Composite Index entered a technical bear market. Against this backdrop, the A-share market will face huge downward pressure on Monday [28][29]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, IF2504 closed at 3,861.6 points, down 47.2 points or 1.21% from the previous week; IH2504 closed at 2,664.4 points, down 16.2 points or 0.6%; IC2504 closed at 5,822.4 points, down 47.2 points or 0.8%; IM2504 closed at 6,168.4 points, down 44.2 points or 0.71% [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In March, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued recovery in the manufacturing sector's prosperity [7]. - In March, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, showing an accelerated expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [10]. - In March, the Composite PMI Output Index was 51.4%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an overall acceleration in the expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities [12]. 3.3 Valuation Analysis - As of April 7, the PE of the CSI 500 Index was 28.5 times, with a quantile of 64.1%, and the PB was 1.85 times; the PE of the SSE 300 Index was 12.42 times, with a quantile of 48.04%, and the PB was 1.33 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 10.69 times, with a quantile of 63.73%, and the PB was 1.2 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 38.3 times, with a quantile of 50.39%, and the PB was 2.13 times [17]. 3.4 Other Data - The equity-bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the government bond yield. There are two formulas for calculating the equity-bond yield spread: one is based on the reciprocal of the price-earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [25][26]. 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - The US stock market experienced a sharp decline due to the "reciprocal tariff" policy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 5.50%, the S&P 500 Index fell 5.97%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 5.82%. The Nasdaq entered a technical bear market. Against this background, the A-share market will face huge downward pressure on Monday [28][29].