Group 1: Report Title and General Information - Report Title: Volatility Narrowing and the Stalemate between Long and Short Positions [1] - Report Author: Investment Consulting Department of Hualong Futures - Report Date: June 9, 2025 [2] - Financial Sector Researcher: Deng Xiayu [4] Group 2: Market Review - IF2506 closed at 3855.4 points, up 33.0 points or 0.86% from the previous week [4] - IH2506 closed at 2673.6 points, up 6.4 points or 0.24% from the previous week [4] - IC2506 closed at 5725.4 points, up 97.6 points or 1.73% from the previous week [4] - IM2506 closed at 6100.2 points, up 134.2 points or 2.25% from the previous week [4] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will visit the UK from June 8 - 13 and hold the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism with the US [7] Group 4: Valuation Analysis - As of June 8, the PE of the CSI 500 Index was 29.11 times, with a quantile of 68.63% and a PB of 1.8 times [9] - The PE of the SSE 50 Index was 10.9 times, with a quantile of 74.9% and a PB of 1.2 times [9] - The PE of the CSI 300 Index was 12.56 times, with a quantile of 53.73% and a PB of 1.31 times [9] - The PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 40.05 times, with a quantile of 60.39% and a PB of 2.09 times [9] Group 5: Other Data - Stock - Bond Yield Spread - Stock - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the government bond yield. There are two calculation formulas [17] - Formula 1: Stock - bond yield spread = (1 / Index static PE) - 10 - year government bond yield [17] - Formula 2: Stock - bond yield spread = 10 - year government bond yield - Index static dividend yield [17] Group 6: Comprehensive Analysis - The A - share market showed an oscillating pattern with significant differentiation among sectors. The CSI 1000 and CSI 500 Indexes outperformed the SSE 50 and CSI 300 Indexes [20] - The overall market showed a relatively strong trend, but the future upward space may be limited [20] - Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to macro - economic data, Sino - US economic and trade negotiation policies, and external market fluctuations [20]

Group 1: Report Core View - The weak performance of overseas markets during the "Dragon Boat Festival" may drag down the A-share market. It is expected that the A-share market will shift from the previous upward oscillation to a downward oscillation after the festival. Investors are advised to closely monitor market dynamics, flexibly adjust their position allocations, and reasonably control their position levels [1][15] Group 2: Market Performance - Last week, IF2506 closed at 3,822.4 points, down 13.0 points or 0.62% from the previous week. IH2506 closed at 2,667.2 points, down 25.8 points or 0.96% from the previous week [4] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - On May 31, local time, the US Trade Representative's Office announced an extension of the tariff exemptions for some products in the Section 301 investigation into China's actions, policies, and practices regarding technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation. These exemptions, originally set to expire on May 31, 2025, have been extended to August 31, 2025 [7] Group 4: Valuation Analysis - As of June 3, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 12.46 times, with a quantile of 51.18%, and the PB was 1.3 times. The PE of the SSE 50 Index was 10.86 times, with a quantile of 72.16%, and the PB was 1.19 times. The PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 40.06 times, with a quantile of 59.8%, and the PB was 2.01 times [7] Group 5: Other Data - The equity - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the government bond yield. There are two formulas for calculating the equity - bond yield spread: one is based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [12]

研究报告 股指周报 市场震荡格局生变，弱势特征初现 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | 金融板块研究员：邓夏羽 | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F0246320 | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0003212 | | | | | 电话：13519655433 | | | | | 邮箱：383566967@qq.com | | | | | 报告日期：2025 5 20 | 年 | 月 | 日星期一 | 【行情复盘】： 上周 IF2506 报收于 3846.2 点，相较前一周 上涨 37.4 点，涨幅 0.01%。IH2506 报收于 2693.0 点，相较前一周下跌 2.2 点，跌幅 0.08%。IC2506 报收于 5561.8 点，相较前一周下跌 40.0 点，跌 幅 0.71%。IM2506 报收于 5872.0 点，相较前一周 下跌 61.8 点，跌幅 1.04%。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 *特 ...

上周 IF2505 报收于 3840.2 点，相较前一周 上涨 88.2 点，跌幅 2.35%。IH2505 报收于 2683.6 点，相较前一周上涨 56.4 点，涨幅 2.15%。IC2505 报收于 5702.4 点，相较前一周上涨 112.2 点，涨 幅 2.01%。IM2505 报收于 6056.2 点，相较前一周 上涨 150.8 点，涨幅 2.55%。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 研究报告 股指周报 市场短期震荡上行可期 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 金融板块研究员：邓夏羽 期货从业资格证号：F0246320 投资咨询资格证号：Z0003212 电话：13519655433 邮箱：383566967@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 5 月 12 日星期一 【行情复盘】： *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 研究报告 1、2025 年 4 月份，全国居民消费价格同比下降 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The A-share market is expected to continue the trend of volatile upward movement after the holiday, and the gap formed on April 7 is expected to be filled. Investors are advised to closely monitor market dynamics, flexibly adjust their position allocation, and reasonably control their position levels [27][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Market Review - Last week, IF2505 closed at 3752.0 points, down 22.8 points or 0.6% from the previous week. IH2505 closed at 2627.2 points, down 17.8 points or 0.67% from the previous week [5]. (2) Fundamental Analysis - In April, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level [7]. - In April, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, still above the critical point, indicating that the non-manufacturing sector continued to expand [9]. - In April, the Composite PMI Output Index was 50.2%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, still above the critical point, indicating that China's business production and operation activities continued to expand [11]. (3) Valuation Analysis - As of May 5, the PE of the CSI 500 Index was 28.3 times, the quantile was 63.14%, and the PB was 1.74 times. The PE of the SSE 50 Index was 10.65 times, the quantile was 61.76%, and the PB was 1.17 times. The PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 40.06 times, the quantile was 59.8%, and the PB was 2.01 times [16]. (4) Other Data - The stock-bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the government bond yield. There are two formulas for calculating the stock-bond yield spread: one is based on the reciprocal of the price-earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [23][24]. (5) Comprehensive Analysis - During the pre-holiday trading period, the A-share market showed a volatile and weak adjustment trend, and investor sentiment was relatively cautious. During the "May Day" holiday, the Hong Kong stock market performed strongly, which is expected to inject positive momentum into the A-share market after the holiday [27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The sharp decline in the US stock market has put significant downward pressure on the A-share market. The US announced a "reciprocal tariff" policy, leading to a sharp drop in the three major US stock indexes on the 4th. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below the 40,000-point mark, and the Nasdaq Composite Index entered a technical bear market. Against this backdrop, the A-share market will face huge downward pressure on Monday [28][29]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, IF2504 closed at 3,861.6 points, down 47.2 points or 1.21% from the previous week; IH2504 closed at 2,664.4 points, down 16.2 points or 0.6%; IC2504 closed at 5,822.4 points, down 47.2 points or 0.8%; IM2504 closed at 6,168.4 points, down 44.2 points or 0.71% [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In March, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued recovery in the manufacturing sector's prosperity [7]. - In March, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, showing an accelerated expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [10]. - In March, the Composite PMI Output Index was 51.4%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an overall acceleration in the expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities [12]. 3.3 Valuation Analysis - As of April 7, the PE of the CSI 500 Index was 28.5 times, with a quantile of 64.1%, and the PB was 1.85 times; the PE of the SSE 300 Index was 12.42 times, with a quantile of 48.04%, and the PB was 1.33 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 10.69 times, with a quantile of 63.73%, and the PB was 1.2 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 38.3 times, with a quantile of 50.39%, and the PB was 2.13 times [17]. 3.4 Other Data - The equity-bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the government bond yield. There are two formulas for calculating the equity-bond yield spread: one is based on the reciprocal of the price-earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [25][26]. 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - The US stock market experienced a sharp decline due to the "reciprocal tariff" policy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 5.50%, the S&P 500 Index fell 5.97%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 5.82%. The Nasdaq entered a technical bear market. Against this background, the A-share market will face huge downward pressure on Monday [28][29].