Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of Trump dismissing Powell is considered low due to the high difficulty, low reward, and significant risks involved. Trump is more likely to influence the Federal Reserve by announcing a successor in advance, but the impact on reshaping the Fed may be limited due to internal policy disagreements [1][3]. Group 1 - Trump's criticism of Powell reflects the spread of "fiscal anxiety," exacerbated by the passage of the "Big Beautiful Bill," which indicates a growing reliance on pro-cyclical deficits, leading to high debt issuance costs and declining long-term bond acceptance [1]. - Pressuring the Federal Reserve is viewed as a "damaging tactic" to address fiscal anxiety, which may have immediate effects but significant side effects, increasing the probability of a "triple whammy" scenario in the stock, bond, and currency markets if investors perceive threats to the Fed's independence and transparency [1]. - The recent stablecoin legislation aims to alleviate the Treasury's debt issuance pressure while stripping the Fed of its authority to issue digital currency, thereby creating a "shadow Fed" represented by stablecoin issuers, which expands the White House's control and regulatory scope over the money supply [1]. Group 2 - Historical experience shows that the credibility of the Federal Reserve in maintaining price stability is crucial. The case of Burns during Nixon's presidency illustrates the risks of political pressure leading to overly accommodative monetary policy, which can create long-term inflationary pressures [3]. - The loss of the Fed's independence and a "stop-and-go" approach to monetary policy could increase the risk of unanchored inflation expectations, making it costly to restore credibility once lost [3]. - The mechanisms designed to ensure the Fed's independence present three significant obstacles for Trump in achieving his rate cut goals [2][5].

Core Viewpoint - The political turmoil in Japan is causing significant ripples in the financial markets, with concerns about the country's fiscal outlook intensifying following the ruling coalition's defeat in the House of Councillors election [1]. Group 1: Political Developments - Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ruling coalition suffered losses in the recent elections, leading to increased calls within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) for his resignation [1][8]. - Several LDP members have publicly demanded Ishiba step down, indicating a loss of support following two election defeats [1][9]. - The LDP is facing its weakest parliamentary position in 70 years, having lost majority seats in both houses, which raises concerns about the party's future leadership [9][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the election results, the Japanese bond market showed signs of weakness, with prices of 20-year and 40-year government bonds declining and yields rising by 1 and 4 basis points respectively [1][6]. - The Japanese yen depreciated approximately 0.2% against the US dollar, trading at 147.7, while the stock market also faced pressure [1][5]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Analysts warn of a potential "triple decline" scenario for the yen, bonds, and stocks due to political uncertainty, which could lead to higher bond yields as Ishiba may need to make fiscal concessions to appease opposition parties and voters [5][7]. - The weak performance of the bond market reflects investor concerns over government fiscal expansion, with expectations of a steepening yield curve, particularly for long-term bonds [6][10]. - The ongoing political instability may hinder Japan's ability to effectively negotiate in international trade discussions, particularly with the US, which has threatened to impose tariffs on Japanese exports [7][10].

锚定机构目标位，黄金本周将作出方向抉择 黄金上攻3375阻力，大摩重磅预言：欧元剑指1.30，3.6万亿对冲资金蓄势待发，美元长期上升通道恐破 裂？鲍威尔去留预演股债汇三杀，黄金飙升技术面逻辑全解析，速览一周行情"风暴眼">> 相关链接 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing challenges and potential shifts in the international monetary system, particularly focusing on the decline of the US dollar and the implications of stablecoins in this context [3][4][5]. Group 1: Current Monetary System Challenges - Since early 2025, the narrative of "American exceptionalism" has been challenged, leading to a 12.5% decline in the US dollar index [3]. - Following the "reciprocal tariffs" impact in April, the US financial markets experienced simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currency [3]. - The "Triffin Dilemma," which predicts a crisis of confidence in the dollar due to excessive credit expansion, is highlighted as a historical precedent for current issues [3][4]. Group 2: Stablecoins and Their Role - The article raises questions about the nature and functions of stablecoins, exploring their potential roles in the monetary system and their relationship with the US dollar [5]. - It emphasizes the need for a deeper understanding of the essence of money and the functions it serves, particularly in the context of stablecoins [5]. Group 3: Political and Economic Interconnections - The relationship between alliance politics, monetary issues, and strategy is underscored, indicating that the dollar and gold issues are intertwined with broader political concerns, such as US-NATO relations and Germany's role [6]. - The article stresses that economic policies cannot be viewed in isolation from strategic and foreign policy issues, highlighting the political dimensions of monetary matters [6].

Market Performance - On July 16, US stock indices collectively rose, with the Dow Jones up 0.53%, Nasdaq up 0.25% reaching a new high, and S&P 500 up 0.32% [1] - Most popular Chinese concept stocks declined, with Baidu down over 7%, JD.com and Alibaba down over 1%, while Bilibili rose over 1% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.41% [1] - Chip stocks declined, with ASML down over 8% [1] - Energy stocks fell across the board, while stablecoin concept stocks surged [1] Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.52% to $3354.2 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures increased by 0.04% to $38.125 per ounce [2] Currency Market - The US dollar index fell by 0.23%, closing at 98.392, with a year-to-date decline of over 9% [3][4] US Treasury Bonds - On July 16, the 30-year US Treasury yield broke above 5%, while the 10-year yield approached 4.5%, marking four consecutive days of increases [7][8] - Traders significantly increased bearish bets on US Treasuries, with options betting on a rise in the 30-year yield to around 5.3% within five weeks, with total premiums reaching $10 million [8] Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June rose by 2.7% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations and marking the largest increase since February [12] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 2.9% year-on-year, slightly below expectations but higher than May's 2.8% [12] - Following the CPI report, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July rose to 97%, while the likelihood of a rate cut in September dropped to around 50% [12] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Factors such as tariffs may compress this year's fiscal deficit, and the US Treasury General Account (TGA) balance remains at $372.2 billion, seven times that of the same period in 2023 [14] - The US is not currently increasing the issuance of medium to long-term Treasuries [14] - Economic growth, oil prices, and Federal Reserve policies are relatively favorable, but if inflation exceeds expectations, the risk of simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currency should be monitored [14]

Group 1 - The "Beautiful Bill" expands the total deficit by approximately $4.1 trillion, primarily continuing existing policies [2][6][9] - The bill legalizes Trump's economic policies, enhancing federal control over local governments and increasing discretionary power in key areas [2][6] - The economic effects include a mild boost to the U.S. economy, benefiting traditional industries while negatively impacting low-income groups [3][21][32] Group 2 - The bill is expected to increase the annual GDP growth rate by an average of 0.1% from 2025 to 2034, with the most significant impact occurring between 2026 and 2028 [21][22] - The legislation will lead to a 3.9% income decrease for the lowest 10% of households, while the highest 10% will see an average increase of 2.3% [3][32] - Traditional and capital-intensive industries will benefit from investment depreciation incentives, while the renewable energy sector may suffer due to reduced subsidies [32][55] Group 3 - The supply of U.S. Treasury bonds is expected to remain stable, with a relatively friendly macro environment, although there may still be upward pressure on term premiums [4][35] - The fiscal deficit is projected to rise moderately, with tariff revenues potentially offsetting 54% of the deficit increase [40][56] - The bill is unlikely to trigger a significant debt crisis, but it may systematically elevate term premiums [5][45][56]

Group 1 - The performance of major markets has diverged significantly in the first half of the year, with the Dow Jones up 3.64%, Nasdaq up 5.48%, and S&P 500 up 5.50%, while the KOSPI index surged 28.04%, DAX index rose 20.09%, Hang Seng index increased by 20.00%, and IBOVESPA index grew by 15.59% [1] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index saw a nearly 14% increase in the first half of the year, marking the best performance for the same period since 2017 [1] - The shift of capital from the US to Europe and Asia is evident, driven by the US government's tariff policies and the resulting uncertainty in the US market [1][3] Group 2 - The US has experienced a "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and currencies, with expectations that this may become a norm due to political and policy uncertainties [2] - The rising US debt and persistent fiscal deficits are undermining market confidence and financial stability, leading to a potential decline in the attractiveness of dollar assets [2][5] - If the US does not effectively manage its debt, the long-term risk of a decline in dollar assets may increase, prompting investors to diversify into other assets [5] Group 3 - The economic growth in Europe and Asia is relatively stable, with declining interest rates attracting more capital, as investors seek value in previously underperforming markets [4] - The capital cycle that traditionally supported US assets is being challenged, leading to accelerated "de-dollarization" among global economies [4][7] - The potential for a financial crisis exists if the US continues to expand its debt, which could disrupt the global financial chain [7] Group 4 - The US dollar index has dropped over 10% in the first half of the year, the largest decline since 1973, attributed to slowing economic growth and rising debt levels [6] - The demand for long-term debt is raising concerns about a "gray rhino" risk, which could lead to a debt crisis affecting global financial markets [7] - Stablecoins are seen as a potential support for US debt, but they come with regulatory and liquidity risks that need to be addressed [8] Group 5 - Hong Kong is positioned as a leading area for stablecoin development, with expectations for enhanced regulatory frameworks and international cooperation [9] - By 2025, global capital is anticipated to continue flowing into emerging markets and digital assets, reshaping the global market landscape [10] - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to interest rate cuts may influence market stability, with potential implications for both US and Asia-Pacific markets [11] Group 6 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance, particularly in technology and renewable energy sectors, with expectations for continued growth [12] - A-share markets are expected to catch up with Hong Kong stocks, driven by government policies aimed at stimulating economic growth and innovation [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential risks of an unexpected downturn in the US economy, emphasizing the importance of monitoring unemployment rates and the implications of tariffs on trade and economic growth [1][5]. Economic Forecasts - The IMF has revised the global GDP growth forecast for 2025 down to 2.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from January [2][3]. - The US GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been lowered from 2.7% to 1.8%, reflecting a decline of 0.9 percentage points [2]. Key Economic Indicators - A rise in the unemployment rate to the range of 4.4-4.6% could trigger a "recession trade" in the market [1][5]. - The article highlights the uncertainty in trade, industrial production, and economic growth due to the implementation of Tariff 2.0 [1]. Currency Trends - There is a possibility of further depreciation of the US dollar, which may lead to an appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the dollar, similar to the situation observed in August-September 2024 [1][9]. - The potential for a gradual depreciation of the dollar may continue if the US government pursues fiscal balance and creates more room for interest rate cuts [9]. Economic Scenarios - The article outlines three possible scenarios for the US economy, indicating the risks associated with stagflation and the "triple whammy" of stocks, bonds, and currency [7][6].

Group 1 - The "Beautiful Bill" Act is expected to expand the total deficit by approximately $4.1 trillion, primarily continuing existing policies rather than introducing new ones [2][6][9] - The Act is projected to provide a mild boost to the U.S. economy, with an average annual increase in real GDP growth of 0.1% from 2025 to 2034, peaking at 0.8% during 2026-2028 [2][22][32] - The Act will negatively impact low-income households, with the lowest 10% of earners expected to see a 3.9% decrease in income due to cuts in medical assistance and SNAP benefits [3][32] Group 2 - Traditional and capital-intensive industries are likely to benefit from the Act, while the renewable energy and electric vehicle sectors may suffer due to reduced subsidies [3][32][55] - The Act includes significant increases in defense spending, with an additional $150 billion allocated, and immigration enforcement spending reaching a historical high of $1.74 trillion [13][16] - The Act's tax cuts are heavily skewed towards higher-income households, with the top 10% expected to see an average income increase of 2.3% [3][32] Group 3 - The liquidity of U.S. Treasuries is expected to remain stable, with manageable supply pressures and a friendly macroeconomic environment, although there may still be upward pressure on term premiums [4][35][45] - The projected federal debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to reach 103% by 2026 and 116% by 2030, but the likelihood of a sovereign debt crisis remains low [5][45][56] - The Act's impact on inflation is anticipated to be minimal, with peak inflation effects projected to be only 0.12% by 2027 [22][32]

Group 1: Overview of the "Beautiful Bill" - The "Beautiful Bill" is expected to expand the total deficit by approximately $4.1 trillion, primarily continuing existing policies[1] - The bill includes tax cuts, increased spending on immigration enforcement, expanded defense spending, and cuts to welfare and renewable energy subsidies[1] - The overall deficit scale ranks among the highest since World War II, second only to the 1981 Reagan tax cuts when measured as a percentage of GDP[1] Group 2: Economic Effects - The bill is projected to moderately boost U.S. GDP growth by an average of 0.1 percentage points annually from 2025 to 2034, with the most significant impact occurring between 2026 and 2028, potentially reaching 0.8 percentage points[2] - The lowest 10% of income households may see a 3.9% decrease in income due to cuts in medical assistance and SNAP benefits, while the highest 10% could experience an average income increase of 2.3%[2] - Traditional and capital-intensive industries are expected to benefit, while the renewable energy and electric vehicle sectors may suffer due to reduced tax credits[2] Group 3: U.S. Treasury Bond Liquidity - The supply of U.S. Treasury bonds is expected to remain stable, with manageable macroeconomic conditions, although there may still be upward pressure on term premiums[3] - The projected increase in the deficit rate for next year is around 0.7%, potentially reaching approximately 7%[3] - The federal government's leverage ratio is anticipated to reach 103% by 2026 and 116% by 2030, but the risk of a sovereign debt crisis remains low[3] Group 4: Market Reactions and Asset Performance - Major U.S. stock indices rose collectively, with the S&P 500 increasing by 1.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 2.3%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 6 basis points to 4.4%, while the dollar index fell by 0.3% to 96.99[4] - The upcoming expiration of tariff exemptions raises concerns about potential tariff escalations, with about 20 countries facing the possibility of reinstated tariffs[4]