Core View - Today, the trends of Treasury bond futures were divergent. The 2-year Treasury bond futures oscillated and declined slightly, while the 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury bond futures oscillated and rose. Currently, Treasury bond futures are mainly affected by monetary policy expectations and the risk appetite of the stock market. In the medium and long term, there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. However, in the short term, due to the low necessity of a comprehensive interest rate cut, the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is not strong. The inflation data in August remained weak. Subsequently, the policy side will continue to introduce policies to stabilize demand, promoting a moderate recovery of inflation. It is expected that fiscal policy will be intensified in the fourth quarter, thus exerting supply-side pressure on Treasury bonds. The risk appetite of the stock market is at a high level, siphoning off bond-buying funds and suppressing the demand side of Treasury bonds, showing the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly undergo low-level oscillatory consolidation in the short term [2] Industry News and Related Charts - On September 12, the People's Bank of China announced that it carried out 230 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate through quantity tendering, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%. There were 188.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the open market today, resulting in a net injection of 41.7 billion yuan [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the TL2509 variety is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", and the overall view is "oscillation" due to the decreased possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut and the rising risk appetite in the stock market [1] - For the main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS) in the financial futures stock index sector, the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". In the short term, the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient because the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low, the central bank focuses on implementing existing policies and provides structural easing for consumer and technology - related enterprises, and the rising risk appetite in the stock market weakens the demand for treasury bonds. However, the anchoring effect of policy interest rates limits the upward space of market interest rates, so the downward space of treasury bond futures is also limited [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term is "oscillation", the medium - term is "oscillation", the intraday is "oscillation with a weak bias", and the view reference is "oscillation". The core logic is the decreased possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut and the rising risk appetite in the stock market [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that last Friday, treasury bond futures oscillated narrowly. In the short term, the low possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut, the central bank's focus on existing policies and structural easing for specific enterprises, and the rising risk appetite in the stock market lead to insufficient upward momentum of treasury bond futures. But the anchoring effect of policy interest rates limits the upward space of market interest rates, so the downward space of treasury bond futures is also limited [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the overall trend of treasury bond futures is expected to be range - bound. In the short - term, both upward and downward movements are limited, with a forecast of consolidation. The main reasons are the decreased possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut and the rise in the stock market's risk appetite, which restricts the rebound momentum of treasury bond futures. However, the anchor effect of policy interest rates limits the upward movement of market interest rates, providing strong support for treasury bond futures [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is "sideways", the medium - term view is "sideways", the intraday view is "sideways with a weak bias", and the overall view is "sideways". The core logic is the decreased possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut and the rise in the stock market's risk appetite [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view for varieties TL, T, TF, and TS is "sideways with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the reference view is "sideways". The core logic is that treasury bond futures fluctuated and slightly declined yesterday. With the monetary policy emphasizing implementation and detailed measures in the second half of this year and focusing on structural easing, the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased. The rise in the stock market's risk appetite attracts funds into the stock market, suppressing the demand for treasury bonds. However, due to the anchor effect of policy interest rates, the upward movement of market interest rates is restricted, and treasury bond futures still have strong support [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views for TL2509 are shock, shock, and shock - weak respectively, with an overall view of shock due to the decreased possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut and the rising risk appetite in the stock market [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is shock - weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock. The overall situation is that treasury bond futures are expected to maintain a bottom - shock operation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is shock - weak, and the overall view is shock. The core logic is the decreased possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut and the rising risk appetite in the stock market [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, all treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose slightly. Due to the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the upward space for market interest rates is limited, so treasury bond futures rebounded from the bottom. However, the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is expected to be insufficient in the short term. From the policy perspective, monetary policy is mainly structurally loose, focusing on boosting consumption and supporting scientific and technological innovation - related fields, and the possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut has decreased. From the perspective of capital preference, the risk appetite in the stock market has been rising recently, and the profit - making effect has attracted funds into the stock market, reducing the demand for funds to buy treasury bonds. In general, treasury bond futures will maintain a bottom - shock operation in the short term [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view of treasury bond futures is to maintain a bottom - side oscillating trend in the short term. The upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient due to a decreased possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts and a rising risk appetite in the stock market. However, the anchoring effect of policy interest rates limits the upward space of market interest rates, providing strong support for treasury bond futures [5]. - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillating, with an intraday view of slightly weak oscillation, mainly because the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased and the risk appetite in the stock market has increased [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, the intraday view is slightly weak oscillation, and the overall view is oscillating. The core logic is that the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased and the risk appetite in the stock market has increased [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is slightly weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating. - The core logic is that although treasury bond futures oscillated upwards yesterday, their upward momentum is insufficient. On one hand, the monetary policy in the second half of this year emphasizes implementation and structuring, reducing the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts. On the other hand, the risk appetite in the stock market continues to rise, with the trading volume in the stock market exceeding 3 trillion yuan, attracting funds to flow into the stock market and suppressing the demand for purchasing treasury bonds. However, the anchoring effect of policy interest rates limits the upward space of market interest rates, providing strong support for treasury bond futures, so they will maintain a bottom - side oscillating trend in the short term [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of treasury bond futures is "oscillation". In the short - term (within a week), the TL2509 variety is expected to oscillate; in the medium - term (two weeks to one month), it will also oscillate; and on an intraday basis, it is expected to oscillate weakly. For TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating. Overall, treasury bond futures will maintain a bottom - oscillating operation in the short term [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, with an overall view of oscillation. The core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased, and the risk appetite in the stock market has increased [1] Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, and TS is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating. Last Friday, all treasury bond futures oscillated and sorted, with a slight decline. From a monetary policy perspective, the LPR in August remained unchanged, and the central bank emphasized future implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, mainly in a structural way, reducing the possibility of comprehensive loosening. From a capital preference perspective, the risk appetite in the stock market has been rising recently, attracting funds into the stock market due to the profit - making effect, and the trading volume in the stock market has remained high, suppressing the demand for treasury bonds. However, due to the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the room for further increase in market interest rates is limited, providing strong support for treasury bond futures [5]

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2 - Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of government bond futures is that they will maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term. The possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased, and the risk appetite in the stock market has increased. The TL2509 variety is expected to oscillate in the short and medium - term and show a slightly weaker oscillation trend during the day [1][5] Group 3 - Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is slightly weaker oscillation, with an overall view of oscillation. The core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased, and the risk appetite in the stock market has increased [1] Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is slightly weaker oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillation. The core logic is that government bond futures oscillated and slightly rebounded yesterday. As market interest rates continue to rise, the anchoring effect of policy interest rates is gradually emerging, limiting the upward space of market interest rates, which means government bond futures have strong support. From the perspective of monetary policy, the focus of implementing a moderately loose monetary policy in the future is on structural loosening, and the possibility of comprehensive loosening has decreased. From the perspective of capital preference, the risk appetite in the stock market has continued to rise recently, and the profit - making effect in the stock market has attracted funds into the stock market, suppressing the demand for buying government bonds [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term view of treasury bond futures is weak - side oscillation, and the medium - term view is oscillation. The overall view is oscillation. The reason is that the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased, and the risk appetite of the stock market has risen [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are oscillation, and the intraday view is weak - side oscillation. The core logic is that the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased, and the risk appetite of the stock market has risen [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, TS is weak - side oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillation. The core logic is that treasury bond futures rebounded slightly in oscillation yesterday. On one hand, future policy will focus on structural easing, and the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased. The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy implementation report emphasizes "refinement" and "structure", indicating that future monetary policy will introduce structural easing policies in areas such as inclusive small and micro financial services, financial support for scientific and technological innovation, and financial support for consumption promotion. On the other hand, the risk appetite of the stock market has been rising recently, and the money - making effect of the stock market has attracted funds into the stock market, suppressing the demand for buying treasury bonds. However, due to the continuous recovery of market interest rates, the anchoring effect of policy interest rates is gradually emerging, and the room for further increase in market interest rates is limited. In general, treasury bond futures will operate in a weak - side oscillation in the short term [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - On August 15, 2025, stock indices showed an oscillating upward trend, with significant gains in CSI 500 and CSI 1000. The stock market trading volume has remained above 2 trillion yuan for multiple days, indicating optimistic market sentiment and a continuous rise in investors' risk appetite [3]. - Policy - side positive expectations strongly support the stock indices. Anti - involution and consumption - promotion policies are conducive to a moderate recovery of the price index, the repair of listed companies' profit margins, and the positive cycle of the "residents' consumption - corporate profits - employees' salaries" chain, leading to an increase in the expectation of a better macro - economic outlook [3]. - The balance of margin trading funds has exceeded 2 trillion yuan, indicating strong confidence of leveraged investors in the market. The continuous entry of patient capital such as social security and insurance funds has also promoted the continuous recovery of long - term confidence in the stock market [3]. - In the short term, there are strong positive expectations on the domestic policy side, and external risk factors have temporarily eased. The risk appetite in the stock market continues to recover, and the stock indices will be mainly oscillating upward in the short term [3]. - Currently, the implied volatility of options has rebounded. Considering the long - term upward trend of the stock indices, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads for a moderate bullish view [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1 Option Indicators - **ETF and Index Performance**: On August 15, 2025, 50ETF rose 0.37% to 2.965; 300ETF (SSE) rose 0.92% to 4.295; 300ETF (SZSE) rose 0.91% to 4.432; CSI 300 Index rose 0.70% to 4202.35; CSI 1000 Index rose 2.02% to 7117.50; 500ETF (SSE) rose 2.21% to 6.658; 500ETF (SZSE) rose 2.38% to 2.663; GEM ETF rose 2.58% to 2.509; Shenzhen 100ETF rose 1.44% to 3.035; SSE 50 Index rose 0.12% to 2832.88; Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF rose 1.40% to 1.16; E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF rose 1.62% to 1.13 [5]. - **Volume PCR and Open Interest PCR**: Various option products have different volume PCR and open interest PCR values, and most of them have changed compared with the previous trading day [6]. - **Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility**: Different option products have different implied volatilities of at - the - money options in different months and 30 - trading - day historical volatilities of the underlying assets [7][8]. 2 Related Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Include the trend of SSE 50ETF, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [9][10][11]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Include the trend of SSE 300ETF, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [20][21][22]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Include the trend of SZSE 300ETF, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [33][34][35]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Include the trend of CSI 300 Index, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [46][47][48]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Include the trend of CSI 1000 Index, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [59][60][61]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Include the trend of SSE 500ETF, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [70][71][72]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Include the trend of SZSE 500ETF, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [83][84][85]. - **GEM ETF Options**: Include the trend of GEM ETF, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [94][95][96]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Include the trend of Shenzhen 100ETF, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [107][108][109]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Include the trend of SSE 50 Index, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [120][121][122]. - **Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF Options**: Include the trend of Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [133][134][135]. - **E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF Options**: Include the trend of E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [136][137][138].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report predicts that the stock index will show an upward trend in the medium - term and maintain a volatile and slightly stronger performance in the short - term. Policy support and positive expectations are the main driving forces, although there may be short - term technical consolidation needs [1][5]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is volatile and slightly stronger, and the overall view is upward. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view for IF, IH, IC, and IM is volatile and slightly stronger, and the medium - term view is upward. The reference view is upward. Last Friday, the stock indexes were in a narrow - range volatile consolidation. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1736.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 116.2 billion yuan from the previous day. Although the expectation of short - term policy intensification has weakened, the policy support expectation still exists. Policy support and positive expectations drive the recovery of stock market risk appetite. Considering the large gains of some stocks and the approaching deadline of the Sino - US tariff suspension period, there may be short - term technical consolidation, but the medium - and long - term upward trend remains unchanged [5].