Core Viewpoint - TOP TOY has submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise funds for various strategic initiatives, including IP development and global market expansion [3][4]. Financial Performance - TOP TOY has experienced significant revenue growth, with income increasing from RMB 678.8 million in 2022 to RMB 1.91 billion in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 67.7% [9]. - The adjusted net profit has shown a rapid increase, from a loss of RMB 38.2 million in 2022 to a profit of RMB 180 million in 2025 [9]. Revenue Structure - The company's revenue is heavily reliant on licensed IP products and externally sourced products, which together account for nearly 100% of total revenue [4][11]. - In 2025, revenue from licensed IP products was RMB 889 million, while self-developed IP products contributed only RMB 6.8 million, indicating a significant dependency on external sources [11][13]. Market Position and Strategy - TOP TOY is recognized as the largest and fastest-growing collectible toy brand in China, with a product matrix that includes figures, 3D models, and plush toys [6]. - The company plans to expand its domestic store count from 299 to between 380 and 400 by the end of 2023, with a long-term goal of opening 1,000 stores globally [8][9]. Sales Channels - The sales structure is primarily composed of offline distributors, which accounted for 51.6% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, with the largest distributor being its parent company, MINISO [20][21]. - The sales model includes direct retail, sales through franchise partners, and sales to offline distributors, with the latter being the most significant contributor to revenue [16][20]. Competitive Landscape - TOP TOY's business model differs fundamentally from that of its competitor, Pop Mart, positioning itself as a collectible retail store rather than a self-branded retailer [10][14]. - The competition between TOP TOY and Pop Mart is expected to intensify, particularly in core urban markets and global expansion efforts [14]. Financial Health - TOP TOY's financial health is concerning, with a debt-to-asset ratio exceeding 100% and liquidity ratios below safe thresholds, indicating potential financial instability [23].

Core Viewpoint - TOP TOY has submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise funds for various strategic initiatives, despite its impressive revenue growth being overshadowed by significant risks related to its business model and reliance on licensed IP products [2][4][18]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Growth - TOP TOY's revenue has seen rapid growth, increasing from 678.8 million RMB in 2022 to an expected 1.91 billion RMB in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 67.7% [5][7]. - The company reported adjusted net profits of -38.2 million RMB in 2022, 213 million RMB in 2023, and 294 million RMB in 2024, indicating a trend of increasing profitability [5][7]. - As of June 30, 2025, TOP TOY's revenue for the first half of the year reached 1.36 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 58.51% [5][7]. Group 2: Business Model and Revenue Structure - TOP TOY's revenue is heavily reliant on licensed IP products, which account for nearly 100% of total revenue, while self-developed IP products contribute only a negligible amount [2][9][11]. - The sales structure shows that the highest proportion of sales comes from distributors, with 51.6% of total revenue generated through this channel in the first half of 2025 [15][16]. - The company has a significant dependency on its parent company, Miniso, which serves as its largest distributor, raising concerns about its operational independence [12][16]. Group 3: Market Position and Competitive Landscape - TOP TOY is recognized as the largest and fastest-growing collectible toy brand in China, with plans to expand its store count from 299 to 1,000 globally over the next five years [4][5]. - The company aims to establish a "China Toy Going Global Alliance" to enhance its international market presence, competing directly with established players like Pop Mart [5][11]. - The strategic focus on expanding its own IP development is critical, as the current reliance on licensed IP limits pricing power and long-term profitability [11][18]. Group 4: Challenges and Risks - The company faces challenges in developing its own IP, with only 17 self-owned IPs compared to 43 licensed IPs, which may hinder its ability to compete effectively in the market [8][11]. - TOP TOY's gross margin is significantly lower than that of competitors like Pop Mart, with margins reported at 19.9% to 32.7% compared to Pop Mart's 57.49% to 70.34% [17][18]. - Financial health indicators show that TOP TOY has a high debt ratio, with an asset-liability ratio exceeding 100%, indicating potential liquidity issues [18].

Core Viewpoint - TOP TOY has submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise funds for diversifying its IP matrix, enhancing global market presence, and improving digital capabilities, despite facing significant challenges related to its business model and reliance on licensed IPs [3][6][21] Group 1: Financial Performance and Growth - TOP TOY has experienced rapid growth, with revenue increasing from 678.8 million RMB in 2022 to an expected 1.909 billion RMB in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 67.7% [7][10] - The company’s net profit has also shown a positive trend, with adjusted net profits rising from -38.2 million RMB in 2022 to 180 million RMB in 2025 [7][10] - As of June 30, 2025, TOP TOY had 299 stores, with plans to expand to 1,000 stores globally within five years [8][7] Group 2: Business Model and Revenue Structure - TOP TOY's revenue is heavily reliant on licensed IP products, which account for nearly 100% of total revenue, while self-developed IP contributions are negligible [11][21] - The sales structure shows that the highest revenue share comes from distributors, with 51.6% of total revenue generated through this channel in the first half of 2025 [18][19] - The company’s sales model includes online and offline channels, with offline sales primarily through distributors and franchise partners [15][18] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - TOP TOY is positioned as a retail aggregator in the toy market, contrasting with competitors like Pop Mart, which focuses on proprietary brands [21][13] - The company faces challenges in creating its own IPs, which could limit its long-term profitability and market differentiation [13][21] - The competition with Pop Mart is expected to intensify, particularly in core urban markets and global expansion efforts [13][21] Group 4: Financial Health and Risks - TOP TOY's financial health is concerning, with a debt-to-asset ratio exceeding 100% and liquidity ratios below safe thresholds [20][21] - The reliance on the parent company, Miniso, as the largest distributor raises questions about the sustainability of its revenue model [19][21] - The gross margin of TOP TOY is significantly lower than that of Pop Mart, indicating a potential vulnerability in profitability [20][21]

Core Insights - TOP TOY, a潮玩 brand under Miniso, is seeking to raise approximately $300 million through an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to enhance its IP matrix, global market presence, brand marketing, and digital capabilities [1] - Despite being a latecomer in the潮玩 industry, TOP TOY has shown significant growth, positioning itself as the "largest and fastest-growing潮玩集合 brand in China" [2][3] Company Overview - Established in 2020, TOP TOY sells products across various categories, including self-owned IP, licensed IP, and third-party IP, with a portfolio of 17 self-owned IPs [2] - The company is projected to achieve a GMV of 2.4 billion yuan in 2024, ranking third among China's top five潮玩 retailers by retail sales [2] Financial Performance - TOP TOY's revenue is expected to grow from 679 million yuan in 2022 to 1.909 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 67.7% [3] - The company turned a profit in 2023, with net profits of 212 million yuan, 297 million yuan, and 180 million yuan for 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025, respectively [3] Market Strategy - TOP TOY leverages Miniso's supply chain and distribution channels to rapidly market products based on globally recognized IPs, achieving significant sales figures [4] - As of June 30, 2025, TOP TOY operates 293 stores globally, with a significant number being franchise stores, indicating aggressive channel expansion [4] Dependency on Miniso - Miniso remains TOP TOY's largest channel and customer, with sales to Miniso accounting for 36.8%, 53.5%, and 48.3% of TOP TOY's revenue in 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively [5] Challenges and Risks - The reliance on licensed IP poses a challenge for TOP TOY's long-term profitability, as competition for IP rights increases and costs rise [6][8] - The company has struggled with developing its own IP, leading to a shift towards a lower-risk model of licensed IP [7] Future Directions - TOP TOY is attempting to enhance its self-owned IP portfolio through acquisitions and collaborations with artists, aiming to create unique products that stand out in the market [10] - The company has seen improvements in profitability, with self-developed products accounting for 49.1% of revenue in 2024, up from less than 40% in 2022 [11] Competitive Landscape - The潮玩 industry is characterized by the need for brands to create emotional connections with consumers, as demonstrated by successful brands like泡泡玛特 [12] - TOP TOY's future success will depend on its ability to establish a distinct brand identity and not solely rely on external IP and Miniso's ecosystem [12]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 9.39 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 22.6% to 910 million yuan, indicating a mixed performance with growth in revenue but a decline in net profit [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 9.39 billion yuan, up 21.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 910 million yuan, down 22.6% year-on-year [1] - Adjusted net profit for H1 2025 was 1.28 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [1] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 44.3%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a higher proportion of overseas market revenue and improved product mix [2] Group 2: Business Segments - Domestic business shows signs of a turning point, with a 11.4% increase in revenue from the Miniso brand in mainland China, while same-store GMV showed a low single-digit decline [1] - The overseas market for the Miniso brand saw a revenue increase of 29.4%, with a net addition of 554 stores, totaling 3,307 stores [1] - TOP TOY brand revenue grew by 73%, with a net addition of 98 stores, reaching 293 stores globally [1] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is shifting from reliance on external licensed IP to a dual strategy of "licensed + proprietary" IP to enhance brand value and product margins [2] - The company has signed contracts with 9 toy artists to kickstart a new chapter in its toy segment [2] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company is expected to see a turning point in its main business, with continued high growth in overseas markets and TOP TOY [3] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 2.42 billion, 3.40 billion, and 4.24 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year change of -7.5%, +40.3%, and +24.8% [3] - The target price for 2026 is set at 53.82 HKD, based on a valuation of 18X PE [3]

Core Insights - TOP TOY, a潮玩 brand under Miniso, has officially initiated its IPO process by submitting its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to achieve the goal set by founder Ye Guofu to go public within three years [1][2] - The潮玩 market has been rapidly growing, with competitors like Pop Mart creating significant market presence, and TOP TOY's entry is expected to intensify the competition [1][2] Company Performance - TOP TOY has shown remarkable growth, with revenue jumping from 6.79 billion RMB in 2022 to 19.09 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 67.7% [3] - The company transitioned from a loss in 2022 to profitability in 2023, with net profit projected to reach 2.94 billion RMB in 2024, and gross margin increasing from 19.9% in 2022 to 32.7% in 2024 [3][4] - The number of stores has expanded from 117 in 2022 to 293 in 2024, supported by Miniso's extensive retail network [3] Market Position and Challenges - Despite rapid growth, TOP TOY remains heavily reliant on Miniso, with 45.5% of its revenue coming from the Miniso ecosystem as of mid-2025, raising concerns about its independence post-IPO [4] - The潮玩 industry is increasingly competitive, with self-owned IP becoming a critical differentiator. TOP TOY's reliance on licensed IPs poses risks, as evidenced by its lower revenue from self-owned IP compared to competitors like Pop Mart [5][7][10] International Expansion - TOP TOY has begun to focus on international markets, aiming for overseas sales to exceed 50% within five years and planning to open 1,000 stores globally [9] - Initial success has been noted in Southeast Asia, with profitable openings in Thailand and Malaysia, but overall overseas revenue remains low compared to competitors [9][10] Industry Outlook - The潮玩 market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a market size of 825 billion RMB by 2025 and 2,133 billion RMB by 2030, indicating a CAGR of 20.9% [11] - The competition is shifting towards IP ecosystem development and global strategies, emphasizing the need for brands to cultivate their own successful IPs to thrive in the market [11]

Core Viewpoint - TOP TOY International Group Limited, a subsidiary of Miniso Group, has officially submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to capitalize on the booming collectible toy market in China [1][11]. Company Overview - TOP TOY was established in December 2020 and is recognized as the largest and fastest-growing collectible toy brand in China, with a projected GMV of 2.4 billion RMB for 2024 [1][4]. - The company currently holds 17 proprietary IPs, 43 licensed IPs, and over 600 third-party IPs, but its revenue heavily relies on external IPs, with proprietary IPs contributing less than 1% of total revenue [4][5]. Financial Performance - TOP TOY's revenue has significantly increased from 679 million RMB to 1.909 billion RMB over the past three years, with a revenue of 1.36 billion RMB and a net profit of approximately 180 million RMB in the first half of this year, resulting in a net profit margin of about 13.2% [4][7]. - In 2023, approximately 47% of the company's revenue, around 889 million RMB, came from popular licensed IPs such as Sanrio and Disney [4]. Market Position and Strategy - TOP TOY operates 293 stores nationwide, benefiting from Miniso's extensive distribution network, which includes over 4,300 stores in mainland China [7][9]. - The company plans to open 100 new stores domestically this year, aiming for a total of 380 to 400 stores by year-end, and has set a goal to expand internationally to 1,000 stores across 100 countries within five years [11]. Future Outlook - With a reserve of 10 billion RMB for ongoing expansion, TOP TOY is positioned to leverage the current collectible toy trend and potentially achieve a higher valuation upon successful listing [11].

Core Viewpoint - TOP TOY International Group Limited, a subsidiary of Miniso Group, has officially submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to capitalize on the booming collectible toy market and potentially achieve a higher valuation upon successful listing [1][12]. Company Overview - TOP TOY was established in December 2020 and is recognized as the largest and fastest-growing collectible toy brand in China, with a projected GMV of 2.4 billion RMB for 2024 [1][4]. - The company has experienced significant revenue growth, with revenue increasing from 679 million RMB to 1.909 billion RMB over the past three years, and achieving 1.36 billion RMB in revenue in the first half of this year [4]. Revenue Sources - TOP TOY's revenue is heavily reliant on external IPs, with approximately 47% of its revenue in 2024 expected to come from popular licensed IPs such as Sanrio and Disney, generating around 889 million RMB [4]. - The company holds 17 proprietary IPs and 43 licensed IPs, but its own IPs contributed only 680,000 RMB to revenue last year, indicating a weak market influence [4]. Market Position and Strategy - As of June 30, 2023, TOP TOY operates 293 stores, supported by Miniso's extensive distribution network, which includes over 4,300 stores in mainland China [8][10]. - Miniso is not only the controlling shareholder of TOP TOY, holding 86.9% of its shares, but also its largest customer, contributing nearly 45.5% of TOP TOY's total revenue in the first half of this year [8][9]. Future Plans - The company plans to open 100 new stores domestically this year, aiming for a total of 380 to 400 stores by year-end, and has set a goal to expand internationally by opening 1,000 stores in 100 countries over the next five years [12]. - TOP TOY has prepared a reserve fund of 10 billion RMB to support its ongoing domestic and international expansion efforts [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.966 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 23%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 490 million yuan, a decrease of 17% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was 691 million yuan, reflecting an 11% increase year-on-year [2][4]. Revenue Performance - The company reported that both domestic and U.S. same-store sales have turned positive. As of Q2 2025, the company had 4,305 domestic stores, 3,307 overseas stores, and 293 TOPTOY stores, with a net increase of 30, 94, and 13 stores respectively in the quarter. Domestic same-store sales grew by 14% year-on-year, while overseas and TOPTOY saw increases of 29% and 87% respectively [7]. Profitability Analysis - The decline in net profit was primarily due to losses from Yonghui Supermarket, which amounted to 120 million yuan. Despite this, the adjusted net profit showed a double-digit growth of 11% year-on-year, with a gross margin increase of 0.4 percentage points. The sales and management expense ratios changed by -2.9 and -0.4 percentage points respectively, indicating improved operational efficiency [7]. Strategic Developments - The company has optimized its operations significantly in both domestic and overseas markets. The domestic strategy focuses on transitioning from small to large stores and refining inventory management, which has led to improved same-store sales. The overseas business, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, is expected to continue growing due to enhanced direct operations [7]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a solid growth trajectory, with projected adjusted net profits of 3.12 billion, 3.73 billion, and 4.28 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The long-term investment highlights include a stable domestic business foundation, expansion of direct overseas operations, and the development of proprietary IP [7].

Core Viewpoint - Miniso's total revenue reached 9.393 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, while profit decreased by 23.1%, primarily due to the acquisition of a 29.4% stake in Yonghui Supermarket, which has negatively impacted Miniso's financial performance [2][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Miniso's revenue for the period was 9.393 billion yuan, reflecting a 21.1% year-on-year growth [2]. - The company's profit, however, saw a decline of 23.1% during the same period [2]. Group 2: Strategic Direction - CEO Ye Guofu has outlined a new growth strategy for Miniso, focusing on a dual approach of "international IP + self-owned IP" [3][4]. - This strategy is influenced by the success of the IP company Pop Mart, which reported a revenue of 30 billion yuan for the year [4]. Group 3: TOP TOY Brand Performance - TOP TOY, a brand under Miniso, generated 742 million yuan in revenue, marking a 73% increase, driven by rapid growth in the number of stores [5]. - As of mid-2023, TOP TOY had 293 stores, including 10 opened overseas since its international expansion began [5]. - The brand has signed contracts with nine toy artists, with the IP "Youyoujiang" expected to achieve sales of 40 million yuan this year and over 100 million yuan next year [5]. Group 4: Future Plans and Market Position - Miniso is evaluating the potential for a separate listing of its TOP TOY brand, which is still in the early stages of assessment [6]. - If successful, this could position Miniso as a significant player in the blind box market, similar to Pop Mart [7]. - TOP TOY has received new financing led by Temasek, achieving a post-investment valuation of approximately 10 billion HKD [8]. Group 5: Expansion Goals - TOP TOY plans to open over 1,000 stores in 100 key global shopping districts over the next five years, with a target of 50% to 60% year-on-year growth in store numbers by 2025 [8][9]. - The brand aims for overseas sales to account for over 50% of its total sales in the future [9]. Group 6: Challenges Ahead - Despite the ambitious plans, Miniso faces challenges in managing its self-owned IP, as the experience in operating self-owned IP differs significantly from licensing established IPs [10]. - The success of Pop Mart's self-owned IP is attributed to years of experience in nurturing and managing IP, which is a complex process [10].