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惠誉:巴基斯坦预算显示财政整顿取得进展。
news flash· 2025-06-13 09:43
Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings indicates that Pakistan's budget reflects progress in fiscal consolidation [1] Group 1 - The budget demonstrates improvements in revenue collection and expenditure management [1] - Fiscal measures are aimed at reducing the budget deficit and enhancing economic stability [1] - The government is focusing on structural reforms to support long-term fiscal health [1]
日本政府顾问小组警告日债收益率上升将对财政造成冲击
news flash· 2025-05-27 06:47
日本政府顾问小组敦促当局加大财政整顿力度,日本央行持续的货币紧缩行动加剧了日本债务偿还成本 上升的风险。据周二提交给日本财务省加藤胜信的一项建议,财政制度委员会警告称,日本央行加息和 缩减债券购买规模正在导致国债收益率稳步上升,日本财政状况需要更多关注。该委员会表示,"我们 必须以高度的紧迫感来管理财政,以防止不断上升的债务成本挤占必要的政策支出。" ...
BIS总经理警告各国政府尽快“收手”:别再乱花钱了!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-05-27 04:09
这位BIS总经理的警告正值美国、日本、欧州债券收益率持续攀升之际——市场普遍预期这些政府将通 过扩大债务融资来增加支出。 卡斯滕斯强调,若政府债务违约,可能引发全球金融体系动荡并威胁货币稳定,因为央行可能被迫为政 府债务融资,导致"财政支配货币政策"的困局。"其后果将是通胀攀升与汇率急剧贬值。基于这些风 险,财政当局遏制公共债务攀升已刻不容缓。" 国际清算银行(BIS)总经理卡斯滕斯(Agustin Carstens)周二在日本央行主办的东京会议上发出严厉 警告:随着利率攀升导致部分国家财政路径不可持续,全球各国政府必须遏制公共债务的"无休止"增 长。 卡斯滕斯指出,全球金融危机后的长期低利率环境曾让巨额赤字和高负债显得"可以承受",使得财政当 局能够回避削减开支或增税等艰难抉择。然而,"超低利率时代已经结束。在公众对政府承诺的信任开 始动摇之前,财政当局整顿财政的窗口期非常短暂。" 他警告称,"市场已逐渐意识到,某些财政路径根本不可持续。面对巨大的财政失衡,金融市场可能突 然失稳。"因此,他强调,"多数经济体必须立即启动财政整顿,敷衍应对已行不通。" 作为"央行的央行",BIS致力于促进各国央行间货币与财政 ...
国际清算银行总经理卡斯滕斯:不应指望央行能在很短的时间和很窄的范围内稳定通胀
news flash· 2025-05-27 00:26
Core Viewpoint - The General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements, Carstens, emphasizes the critical importance of fiscal authorities curbing the ongoing growth of public debt as the era of ultra-low interest rates comes to an end [1] Group 1 - Fiscal authorities have a narrow window to improve fiscal conditions before public trust in their commitments begins to wane [1] - There should be no expectation that central banks can stabilize inflation in a short time frame and within a limited scope [1]
国际清算银行总经理卡斯滕斯:超低利率的时期已过去,各国财政当局在公众对其承诺的信任开始动摇之前,只有有限的时间来整顿财政状况。财政当局遏制公共债务不断攀升是至关重要的。
news flash· 2025-05-27 00:22
Group 1 - The era of ultra-low interest rates has ended, indicating a shift in monetary policy dynamics [1] - Fiscal authorities must act to curb the rising public debt, which is becoming increasingly critical [1] - Public trust in the commitments made by fiscal authorities is beginning to wane, highlighting the need for accountability [1]
从导弹互袭到全面停火,印巴冲突“急刹车”原因很硬核
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-05-11 13:50
Group 1: Conflict Overview - The India-Pakistan conflict escalated unexpectedly but ended with a comprehensive ceasefire agreement on May 10, 2023, after intense military exchanges [1][3][4] - The ceasefire was announced by both countries' officials, with military communication established to facilitate the agreement [3][4] - Despite the ceasefire, small-scale skirmishes continued in the border regions shortly after the announcement [3][4] Group 2: Military Actions - Prior to the ceasefire, India launched missile strikes on three military bases in Pakistan, marking a rare direct attack near the capital Islamabad [4][6] - In retaliation, Pakistan initiated a military operation targeting over 20 Indian military sites and claimed to disrupt 70% of India's power grid, although this was later contested [6][10] - The military actions and subsequent ceasefire negotiations highlight the precarious balance of power and the potential for escalation between the two nuclear-armed nations [8][10] Group 3: Economic Implications - The ongoing conflict poses significant risks to both countries' economies, with potential negative impacts on Pakistan's growth and fiscal stability, especially after recent IMF support [10][11] - India's economic growth is also at risk, with projections indicating a decline from 8.2% to 6.4% in the upcoming fiscal year due to the conflict and other external factors [11] - The situation underscores the importance of economic stability as a deterrent against further military escalation, as both nations are at critical junctures in their economic development [10][11] Group 4: Diplomatic Efforts - Multiple countries, including China and Saudi Arabia, are involved in diplomatic efforts to mediate the conflict, emphasizing the international community's interest in regional stability [8][10] - The involvement of over 30 countries in diplomatic negotiations indicates a broad recognition of the potential consequences of a prolonged conflict between two nuclear powers [8]
穆迪:更高的国防开支可能会对印度的财政实力造成压力,并减缓其财政整顿。
news flash· 2025-05-05 08:40
Core Viewpoint - Increased defense spending in India may exert pressure on the country's fiscal strength and slow down its fiscal consolidation efforts [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Fiscal Impact - Higher defense expenditures could lead to a deterioration in India's fiscal position, potentially impacting overall economic stability [1] Defense Spending - The anticipated rise in defense budget may divert resources from other critical areas, affecting long-term fiscal health [1]
外部需求疲软冲击摩洛哥经济
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-05-01 15:55
Core Insights - Fitch Ratings has downgraded Morocco's economic growth forecast for 2025 from 4.8% to 4.3% and for 2026 from 5.5% to 4.8% due to weak external demand [1][2] Economic Impact - The primary impact of U.S. tariffs on Morocco's economy is not from bilateral trade but from the ripple effects on demand in other markets, particularly Europe, which accounts for 69.2% of Morocco's total exports in 2023 [1] - The expected actual export growth rate for 2025 is projected to drop significantly from 6.1% in 2024 to 2.9%, marking the lowest level since 2020 [1] Medium to Long-term Outlook - Despite challenges, the report maintains a cautiously optimistic view on Morocco's medium-term economic prospects, citing factors such as falling international oil prices and increased agricultural production that will help mitigate the impact of weak European demand [2] - The trade deficit as a percentage of GDP is expected to decrease from 17.4% to 17% [2] - Average inflation is projected to remain low at 1.1% in 2025, aided by declining global oil prices [2] Sectoral Developments - The hosting of the Africa Cup is anticipated to boost the tourism sector, contributing to an increase in service trade exports [2] Debt Sustainability - The report indicates that stable economic growth and a basic fiscal deficit of 0.7% of GDP will keep the debt level manageable [2] - The government debt burden is expected to decrease from 70.2% of GDP in 2025 to 62.5% by 2034, supported by broadening tax sources and structural reforms [2]