Group 1: Malaysia Economic Outlook - Malaysia's economy recorded a surprising 5.2% growth in Q3, but growth momentum is expected to weaken in the coming quarters due to multiple pressures, including falling commodity prices and weak global demand [1] - The Malaysian central bank is anticipated to have at least one more rate cut available to support the economy, given the slowing growth outlook and expected moderate inflation [1] Group 2: Singapore Export Performance - Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) showed signs of resilience despite a year-on-year contraction in Q3, with a rebound observed in September [2] - The export outlook remains cautious due to ongoing risks from U.S. tariffs, although the current impact has been somewhat controlled [2] Group 3: Developed Markets Debt Challenges - Fitch Ratings highlighted that sovereign debt levels in developed markets have surpassed $71 trillion, with refinancing costs rising, exacerbating sustainability challenges [2] - The U.S. accounts for half of the total debt in developed markets and has contributed over 60% of the total increase since 2007 [2] Group 4: U.S. Job Market Trends - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. are expected to decrease from 235,000 to 217,000, indicating a short-term decline in applications [4] - Despite this decline, the overall job market remains weak, with many job seekers still unemployed, reflecting a decrease in employment momentum [4] Group 5: Eurozone Economic Recovery - The Eurozone's economic recovery is expected to be slow, supported by the lagging effects of monetary policy easing and gradual fiscal policy implementation [4][5] - Key factors to monitor include the EU's ability to implement structural reforms and the sustainability of consumer spending, which is currently influenced by high savings rates [5]

Group 1 - The French Prime Minister Le Cornu announced a new government program that includes concessions to left-wing parties, specifically by suspending pension reform to avoid a no-confidence vote in the National Assembly [1][3] - The government aims to maintain control over the fiscal deficit, with a target to keep it within 5% of GDP by 2026, emphasizing the importance of not causing a public finance crisis [1] - The suspension of the pension reform, which would have gradually raised the legal retirement age from 62 to 64, is expected to result in a financial loss of €400 million in 2026 and €1.8 billion in 2027, necessitating economic compensation without increasing the fiscal deficit [1][3] Group 2 - The suspension of pension reform is viewed as a significant concession to the Socialist Party, which has indicated it will not support any no-confidence motions against the new government [3] - The new cabinet's first meeting included the submission of a budget draft for 2026, which outlines €30 billion in austerity measures, including cuts to thousands of civil service jobs and controlling healthcare spending [3]

Group 1 - French Prime Minister Le Cornu submitted his resignation to President Macron on October 6, just under a month after his appointment, with the reasons for his sudden resignation currently unknown [1][2] - Following the news, the French financial market reacted swiftly, with the CAC40 index initially dropping over 2%, marking the largest decline in nearly three months, before narrowing to a drop of approximately 1.6% [1] - The euro/dollar exchange rate fell by about 30 points within five minutes, and the yield spread between French and German 10-year government bonds widened to 86 basis points, the first increase in a month [1] Group 2 - Le Cornu was appointed as Prime Minister on September 9, following the resignation of his predecessor, who failed to pass a confidence vote related to the 2026 budget proposal [2] - The new government, announced on October 5, includes 18 members, with 16 ministers and 2 ministerial representatives, retaining several key positions while replacing others [3] - Criticism arose from some political parties regarding the new government members, with leaders from the National Rally and La France Insoumise expressing that the new cabinet is merely a continuation of the previous government without substantial changes [3]

Core Viewpoint - French Prime Minister Le Cornu submitted his resignation to President Macron, which was accepted, following the announcement of the new government members [1] Group 1: Government Changes - The new government members were announced on the evening of September 5, with Le Cornu expected to present the government's overall policy in both the National Assembly and the Senate [1] - The new government has faced criticism from leaders of both the far-right National Rally and the far-left La France Insoumise, who claim that the new members are merely a continuation of the previous government without substantial changes [1] Group 2: Context of Resignation - Le Cornu was appointed as Prime Minister after the previous Prime Minister, Borne, resigned due to a failed confidence vote related to a controversial 2026 budget proposal focused on fiscal tightening [1] - Le Cornu had been serving as Minister of Defense since May 2022 and was viewed as a loyal supporter of President Macron [1]

Core Insights - The fate of the Argentine peso is crucial for the Milei government's ability to navigate the current crisis, with consensus among Wall Street analysts indicating that the peso is significantly overvalued and requires a substantial devaluation to aid the government [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Context - Barclays Bank suggests that the real effective exchange rate of the Argentine peso needs to depreciate by up to 30% to stimulate the economy, while StoneX and local broker One618 estimate the peso is overvalued by about 20% [1]. - One618's chief economist, Juan Manuel Pazos, states that to meet the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) terms for a $20 billion agreement, the peso must reach an exchange rate of 1650 to 1700 against the dollar, compared to the recent closing price of 1408 [1]. - StoneX analyst Ramiro Blazquez believes a peso to dollar exchange rate of 1500 to 1600 is more reasonable for Argentina [1]. Group 2: Political Challenges - The Milei government faces significant political pressure, making it unlikely to allow a substantial weakening of the peso before the critical midterm elections in October, especially after recent local election losses [2]. - Following the unexpected defeat in local elections, investor confidence in the Milei government has wavered, leading to a sell-off of the Argentine peso [2]. - The Argentine central bank reportedly sold over $1 billion in foreign reserves within three days to defend the exchange rate [2]. Group 3: Inflation and Economic Impact - The strong peso, along with fiscal tightening, was initially used by the Milei government to stabilize the economy and combat hyperinflation, successfully reducing the annual inflation rate from over 200% a year ago to 33.6% currently [4]. - However, analysts indicate that the degree of overvaluation of the peso is increasing, causing concerns in a country with a history of long-term devaluation and defaults [5]. - The high valuation of the peso has led many Argentinians to shop abroad, and even local meat processors are importing beef, as it is more cost-effective than using local products [5]. Group 4: External Support - Amid market instability, the Milei government received support from the Trump administration, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin promising "all stabilization options" for Argentina, which led to a rise in Argentine assets and a 3.8% increase in the peso [6]. - However, this external support may complicate the situation, as it could exacerbate the overvaluation issue rather than alleviate it, making it harder to achieve the goal of currency recalibration [6]. - Further details are expected to emerge following a meeting between Milei and U.S. President Trump in New York [6].

Core Viewpoint - Argentina's President Milei has implemented aggressive fiscal tightening and free-market reforms, but following a significant local election loss, the foreign exchange market has become volatile, leading to a sharp depreciation of the Argentine peso against the dollar and declines in bond and stock markets [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Measures - The Argentine government has temporarily eliminated export taxes on grains, beef, and poultry to encourage exporters to bring more dollar income back to the country, aiming to stabilize the peso [3][4]. - The export tax on soybeans has been reduced to 26%, while the tax on its by-products is now 24.5%. Beef and poultry export taxes have been cut from 5% to zero [3][4]. - The government requires exporters to settle at least 90% of their foreign exchange in the market within three working days of submitting their export sales declaration [3]. Group 2: Political Context - The recent election results showed a significant loss for Milei's party, with the opposition receiving 47% of the votes compared to Milei's 33%, raising uncertainties ahead of the upcoming midterm elections [6]. - The political landscape is increasingly challenging, with expectations of continued volatility in foreign exchange and asset prices leading up to the elections [8]. Group 3: Financial Stability - The Argentine government is rapidly depleting its foreign exchange reserves to support the peso, with a record sale of $678 million in a single day, the highest since October 2019 [6][7]. - Economists warn that maintaining the current exchange rate could lead to a return of hyperinflation, jeopardizing Milei's reforms [7]. - The government has submitted a budget proposal for 2026, projecting an inflation rate of 10.1% and a dollar value of 1423 pesos [8]. Group 4: International Support - The U.S. Treasury has expressed support for Argentina, which has positively impacted local dollar rates and boosted stock and bond markets by 20% [9]. - The nature and scale of U.S. financial support will be crucial for the sustainability of Argentina's asset price recovery and Milei's political prospects [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election is drawing significant attention from financial and capital markets, with varying predictions on market impacts depending on the candidates' economic policies [2][4][5]. Group 1: Candidate Analysis - Among the candidates, Takashi Kawai is noted for his strong fiscal expansion and monetary easing stance, with predictions suggesting that if he wins, the Nikkei average could rise to around 48,000 points by year-end [2][5]. - Shunichi Suzuki, representing a continuation of the current government's fiscal tightening policies, is perceived as lacking the ability to drive overall market growth, leading to expectations of a slight market adjustment if he wins [4][7]. - Yoshihide Suga's policies are expected to maintain the status quo, with limited impact on market fluctuations if he is elected [7][8]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The market has reacted positively to the prospect of Kawai's victory, with short-term foreign capital inflows boosting related stocks, indicating a strong correlation between candidate selection and market performance [5][8]. - In the foreign exchange market, there is a consensus that Kawai's election would not hinder the Bank of Japan from raising interest rates, with expectations for the yen to appreciate towards 145 yen per dollar [4][7]. - Conversely, if Suzuki wins, the yen may depreciate by approximately 2 yen against the dollar, reflecting concerns over fiscal policy direction [7]. Group 3: Economic Policy Implications - Kawai's economic policies emphasize growth through advanced technologies and tax revenue increases, while also showing signs of pragmatic adjustments, such as reconsidering previous tax reduction proposals [7][8]. - Concerns about fiscal deterioration are prevalent, with predictions that the 30-year government bond yield could drop to around 3% from its current level of approximately 3.2% [4][7]. - The upcoming election is expected to be more dynamic than in 2024, with a smaller candidate pool allowing for more in-depth discussions, potentially exposing weaknesses in candidates like Suzuki [8].

7月，法国时任总理贝鲁推出主打财政紧缩的2026年预算草案，措施包括把两个公共假日改为工作日、 削减医保支出等，以缓解公共债务压力。该方案遭到法国国民议会和民众反对。9月8日，贝鲁就财政政 策向法国国民议会寻求信任投票失利而辞职。时任国防部长勒科尔尼翌日被任命为新总理。 9月10日，部分不满财政紧缩政策的民众发起无工会领导的"封锁法国"大规模示威活动。据法国政府统 计，各地约有17.5万人参加。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 当地时间9月18日，法国多地发生大规模罢工和示威活动。据法国政府部门统计，全法共有超过50万人 参与罢工，其中首都巴黎约5.5万人。这是法国近期因反对政府财政紧缩方案而爆发的又一次大规模抗 议活动。 巴黎警察局长努涅兹表示，他对巴黎游行队伍中可能出现大量破坏分子感到非常担忧，并呼吁巴黎的商 户关闭店铺。当天，法国交通、教育、电力、医药等行业劳动者在不同程度上响应工会号召举行罢工， 呼吁制订"更加公正"的财政方案。巴黎、里昂、雷恩等城市的街头示威活动还伴随暴力及破坏事件。 据法国内政部通报，全法有超过300人被捕。受大罢工的影响，一些著名文化景点如卢浮宫和奥赛博物 馆的部分展厅也临时关闭。 法国 ...

Core Points - The European Parliament is debating the continuation of security support to Ukraine amidst financial tightening and divided public opinion, with over €100 billion already spent since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] - EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell, stated that since the conflict began in 2022, the EU and its member states have provided nearly €169 billion in financial support to Ukraine, including over €63 billion in military aid [1] - Concerns were raised by German MEP Alexander Zeller regarding the impact of high energy prices on the German chemical industry, leading to significant layoffs and economic distress, attributing these issues to current EU policies [1][2] - Hungarian MEP József Szájer criticized the EU's proposed budget, which could allocate 20% of the overall budget to Ukraine, questioning the sustainability of such support if the European economy suffers [2] - Calls for peace and diplomatic solutions were voiced by some MEPs, emphasizing the need to avoid escalating military involvement in Ukraine [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses the increasing dissatisfaction among the Indonesian public towards the government under President Prabowo, particularly in the context of economic policies and social inequality [9][10][11] - President Prabowo aims for an 8% GDP growth while not expanding the fiscal deficit, which has led to tensions among the elite and dissatisfaction among vulnerable groups due to past corruption and inequality [10][11] - A specific policy example is the provision of free lunches for pregnant women and students, which has faced criticism for not including university students and teachers, highlighting the challenges of political support during economic downturns [11][12] Group 2 - The article draws historical parallels between current events and past political turmoil in Indonesia, specifically referencing the events of 1965 and 1998, which were also characterized by elite power struggles masked as public dissent [14][15][16] - The 1965 incident involved the military's rise to power following the assassination of army generals, while the 1998 protests were initially student-led but escalated into broader ethnic violence and political upheaval [15][16][17] - The article emphasizes that the underlying causes of these events often relate to economic downturns and the internal conflicts among Indonesia's elite, rather than solely external influences [14][15][18] Group 3 - The current political landscape in Indonesia is described as having three main factions, with President Prabowo caught between opposition forces and internal elite conflicts, particularly with former President Jokowi [19][20][21] - The article suggests that the outcome of these struggles will depend on who can control the state's security apparatus, which is crucial for maintaining order [22][23] - Potential scenarios include Prabowo consolidating power by weakening Jokowi's influence or a prolonged period of instability, but the author believes that the ultimate outcome will likely not lead to chaos due to the vested interests of powerful families in maintaining stability [23]