Group 1: Bond Market - In September, the total issuance of various bonds reached 81,027.8 billion yuan, with government bonds at 14,904.9 billion yuan, local government bonds at 8,519.1 billion yuan, financial bonds at 11,741.0 billion yuan, corporate credit bonds at 13,407.3 billion yuan, credit asset-backed securities at 365.7 billion yuan, and interbank certificates of deposit at 31,627.8 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Money Market - In September, the interbank lending market saw a transaction volume of 9.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.8% and a month-on-month increase of 5.3% [1] - The bond repurchase transactions totaled 159.0 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25.6% but a month-on-month decrease of 0.6% [1] - Standard bond repurchase transactions on exchanges reached 56.9 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 39.8% and a month-on-month increase of 7.6% [1] Group 3: Stock Market - By the end of September, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,882.8 points, a month-on-month increase of 24.9 points, representing a 0.6% rise [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,526.5 points, with a month-on-month increase of 830.4 points, reflecting a 6.5% rise [1] - In September, the average daily trading volume in the Shanghai market was 10,322.1 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 7.9%, while the Shenzhen market's average daily trading volume was 13,604.9 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 2.8% [1]

Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 342.6 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate; with 212.5 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing, the net injection into the market was 130.1 billion yuan [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for short-term instruments continued to decline, with the overnight Shibor falling by 9.70 basis points to 1.3170%, and the 7-day Shibor decreasing by 2.80 basis points to 1.4840% [1][2] Interbank Repo Market - In the interbank pledged repo market, all varieties continued to decline, with R007 and R014 still inverted; the transaction share of R007 rose to 16.8%. The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 fell by 9.3 basis points and 6.8 basis points, respectively, while transaction volumes decreased by 240.8 billion yuan and 198.8 billion yuan [4] - The weighted average rates for DR007 and R007 decreased by 4.3 basis points and 3.0 basis points, respectively, with transaction volumes increasing by 31.8 billion yuan and 275.2 billion yuan [4] Funding Conditions - On October 30, the funding environment appeared relatively loose, with major banks lending out funds, maintaining a generous supply. Overnight transactions were around 1.48%, with 7-day transactions in the range of 1.55% [9] - By the afternoon, the funding rates remained stable, with overnight transactions around 1.35% and 7-day transactions between 1.50% and 1.54% [9] Bank Performance Reports - China Construction Bank reported Q3 revenue of 179.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.98%, and a net profit of 95.28 billion yuan, an increase of 4.19%. For the first three quarters, revenue was 573.70 billion yuan, up 0.82%, and net profit was 257.36 billion yuan, up 0.62% [12] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China announced Q3 revenue of 201.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.42%, and a net profit of 101.80 billion yuan, up 3.29%. For the first three quarters, revenue was 610.97 billion yuan, up 1.98%, and net profit was 269.91 billion yuan, up 0.33% [12] - Agricultural Bank of China reported Q3 revenue of 180.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, and a net profit of 81.35 billion yuan, up 3.66%. For the first three quarters, revenue was 550.77 billion yuan, up 1.87%, and net profit was 220.86 billion yuan, up 3.03% [13] - Postal Savings Bank reported Q3 revenue of 85.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.48%, and a net profit of 27.38 billion yuan, up 1.04%. For the first three quarters, revenue was 265.08 billion yuan, up 1.82%, and net profit was 76.79 billion yuan, up 1.07% [13] - Bank of Communications reported Q3 operating income of 66.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.23%, and a net profit of 23.98 billion yuan, up 2.46%. For the first three quarters, operating income was 200.06 billion yuan, up 1.86%, and net profit was 69.99 billion yuan, up 1.9% [14]

Monetary Policy Operations - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 475.3 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate [1] - With 159.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing on the same day, the net injection into the open market was 315.8 billion yuan [1] Interbank Offered Rates - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed mixed movements, with the overnight Shibor rising by 2.70 basis points to 1.4690%, while the 7-day Shibor fell by 1.20 basis points to 1.5300% [2][3] - The 14-day Shibor increased by 4.90 basis points to 1.6470% [2] Repo Market Activity - In the interbank pledged repo market, various rates experienced slight fluctuations, with R007 and R014 continuing to show an inverted relationship [4] - The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 rose by 1.6 basis points and fell by 0.6 basis points, respectively, while DR007 and R007 saw declines of 2.4 basis points and 3.4 basis points [4] Funding Conditions - The funding environment on October 28 was characterized by a loose stance, with overnight transactions initially around 1.55% and gradually declining to a range of 1.45%-1.48% by the end of the day [8] - A total of 75 interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) were issued, with an actual issuance volume of 181.72 billion yuan [8] Financial Performance of Banks - China Bank reported a third-quarter revenue of 162.697 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.94%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 60.069 billion yuan, up 5.09% [11] - For the first three quarters, the bank achieved a revenue of 492.115 billion yuan, a 2.72% increase, and a net profit of 177.66 billion yuan, up 1.08% [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View Over the past half - week, the bond market showed an overall weak and volatile trend, characterized by "strong stocks and weak bonds, with sentiment disturbances as the main factor." The strong performance of A - shares and the rising expectations of Sino - US negotiations led to an obvious stock - bond seesaw effect. There was no urgent expectation for short - term interest rate cuts, resulting in insufficient motivation for loose trading. Emotional fluctuations made funds more inclined to play short - term bands rather than take long - term positions. The new redemption fee rules, active bond switching, and the wait - and - see sentiment before the release of external CPI data also suppressed long - term allocation demand. The bond market remained in a weak and volatile range, mainly reflecting the defensive behavior of trading desks and profit - taking at high levels. In the short term, attention should be paid to the rhythm of the stock market and the emotional recovery after the release of external inflation data [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis Macro - level - **Macro - policies**: On August 1, 2025, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from August 8, 2025, VAT would be restored on the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds. Previously issued bonds would still be exempt until maturity. From August 12, 2025, the 24% tariff was suspended for 90 days. The State Council emphasized measures to stabilize the real estate market, boost service consumption, and expand effective investment. The finance minister promised more proactive macro - policies, and the NDRC aimed to release domestic demand potential and manage over - capacity. In October, the US imposed export controls and special port fees on Chinese entities, and Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China starting from November 1 [1]. - **Inflation**: In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [1]. Capital - level - **Fiscal**: The fiscal data showed "moderate revenue recovery and strong expenditure expansion." In the first three quarters, the general public budget revenue increased slightly by 0.5% year - on - year, relying on individual income tax, VAT, and stamp duty. The expenditure on social security, education, and debt interest payments maintained high growth. The government - funded budget revenue was still weak, with a narrowing decline in land sales but limited recovery, while the fund expenditure increased by 23.9% year - on - year [2]. - **Financial**: Financial data continued to show "stable liquidity and structural deficiencies in broad credit." The M1 growth rate rose to 7.2%, and the gap narrowed, indicating improved business activity. However, social financing and credit were still at a low level, and enterprise medium - and long - term financing was weak. Government bonds were the main source of social financing growth, and the monetary policy remained moderately loose [2]. - **Central Bank**: On October 24, 2025, the central bank conducted 168 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - **Money Market**: The main repo rates for 1D, 7D, and 14D were 1.32%, 1.41%, and 1.57% respectively, and the repo rates had recently increased [2]. Market - level - **Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: On October 24, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.33 yuan, 105.62 yuan, 108.01 yuan, and 115.01 yuan respectively. Their weekly fluctuations were - 0.002%, - 0.04%, - 0.1%, and - 0.25% respectively [3]. - **Net Basis Spreads**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were 0.02 yuan, - 0.01 yuan, 0.00 yuan, and 0.14 yuan respectively [3]. Strategy - **Single - side**: With the rising repo rates and the fluctuating treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is considered neutral [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Attention should be paid to the rebound of the basis spread [4]. - **Hedging**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Core Insights - The low inflation data in the US for September may lead to a less significant reaction from the money markets than previously anticipated [1] Group 1 - Mizuho macro observer Jordan Rochester highlighted the implications of the US September inflation data [1]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 138.2 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous level, resulting in a net injection of 94.7 billion yuan after 43.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed slight declines in the 7-day and 14-day tenors, with the 7-day Shibor down by 0.40 basis points to 1.4220% and the 14-day Shibor down by 5.20 basis points to 1.4520% [1][2] - The overnight Shibor increased by 0.10 basis points to 1.3180% [2] Group 2 - In the interbank pledged repo market, short-term rates showed minor fluctuations, with DR001 and R001 weighted average rates rising by 0.3 basis points and 0.6 basis points, respectively, while DR007 and R007 rates had mixed movements [5] - The total transaction volume for DR001 decreased by 108.4 billion yuan, while DR007 saw a decrease of 216 billion yuan [5] - The overall funding environment was balanced and slightly loose, with overnight rates showing a slight decline throughout the day [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month. Repo rates are rising, and Treasury futures prices are fluctuating, with a neutral outlook for the 2512 contract. Attention should be paid to the decline in the basis of the 2512 contract. There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4]. - Affected by the strong stock market, the rising risk appetite suppresses the bond market. Meanwhile, the continued expectation of Fed rate cuts and increasing global trade uncertainties add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 0.30% year - on - year decrease; China's monthly PPI has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.30% year - on - year decrease [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale is 437.08 trillion yuan, with a 3.42 - trillion - yuan month - on - month increase and a 0.79% growth rate; M2 year - on - year is 8.40%, with a 0.40% decrease and a - 4.55% change rate; Manufacturing PMI is 49.80%, with a 0.40% increase and a 0.81% growth rate [9]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 98.94, with a 0.35 increase and a 0.36% growth rate; The offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1191, with a 0.003 decrease and a - 0.04% change rate; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.43, with a 0.01 increase and a 0.56% growth rate; DR007 is 1.44, with a 0.01 increase and a 0.70% growth rate; R007 is 1.53, with a 0.02 increase and a 1.49% growth rate; The 3 - month yield of AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit is 1.60, with a 0.01 increase and a 0.31% growth rate; The 1 - year AA - AAA credit spread is 0.09, with a 0.00 increase and a 0.31% growth rate [9]. 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On October 21, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.37 yuan, 105.72 yuan, 108.15 yuan, and 115.59 yuan respectively, with daily changes of 0.04%, 0.05%, 0.05%, and 0.16% [2]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL is - 0.018 yuan, - 0.005 yuan, - 0.034 yuan, and - 0.240 yuan respectively [2]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Fiscal data shows "moderate revenue recovery and strong expenditure expansion." In the first three quarters, general public budget revenue increased slightly by 0.5% year - on - year, relying on the recovery of individual income tax, value - added tax, and stamp duty, but its sustainability remains to be seen. Expenditure continued to increase, with high growth rates in social security, education, and debt interest payments, providing stable support for aggregate demand. Government - managed fund budget revenue is still weak, and the decline in land sales has narrowed but the recovery is limited, while fund expenditure increased by 23.9% year - on - year, indicating that the fiscal side is hedging against economic downward pressure by accelerating the expenditure pace [2]. - On October 21, 2025, the central bank conducted 159.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through quantity tendering [2]. - The main - term repo rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.317%, 1.426%, 1.504%, and 1.557% respectively, and the repo rates have recently rebounded [2]. 4. Spread Overview - The report presents various spread data through multiple figures, including the inter - period spread trends of Treasury bond futures varieties, the term spread of spot bonds, and the cross - variety spread of futures [27][31][32]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract through figures [34][37][45]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract through figures [47][51]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract through figures [54][55]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract through figures [61][63][67].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 159.5 billion yuan, with a bid amount and winning amount of 159.5 billion yuan, and the operation rate remained at 1.40% [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for short-term products showed a slight increase, with overnight Shibor unchanged at 1.3170%, 7-day Shibor rising by 0.80 basis points to 1.4260%, and 14-day Shibor increasing by 3.60 basis points to 1.5040% [1][2] Group 2 - In the interbank pledged repo market, the weighted average rates for 7-day and 14-day products showed slight divergence, with DR001 and R001 rates unchanged at 1.3141% and 1.3632%, respectively, while DR007 and R007 rates increased by 1.0 basis points and decreased by 0.9 basis points, respectively [5] - The trading volume for DR001 increased by 69.9 billion yuan, while that for R001 decreased by 133.8 billion yuan [5] Group 3 - The overall funding situation was balanced and slightly loose, with overnight transactions showing a weighted average rate of 1.40% and 7-day transactions at 1.43% [10] - As of 5:30 PM on October 21, there were 109 interbank certificates of deposit issued, with an actual issuance amount of 187.36 billion yuan [10][11]

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月19日 资金观察，货币瞭望 央行数量工具展现出呵护态度，预计10月市场利率下行 投资策略 · 固定收益 2025年第十期 证券分析师：赵婧 0755-22940745 zhaojing@guosen.com.cn S0980513080004 证券分析师：陈笑楠 021-60375421 chenxiaonan@guosen.com.cn S0980524080001 证券分析师：季家辉 021-61761056 jijiahui@guosen.com.cn S0980522010002 证券分析师：李智能 0755-22940456 lizn@guosen.com.cn S0980516060001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 ➢海外货币市场指标跟踪：美联储降息25BP符合预期，美债短期利率下行； ➢国内货币市场指标跟踪——价：9月银行间和交易所回购利率均值大多小幅上 行；R001、GC001、R007和GC007月均值分别变动4BP、5BP、4BP和8BP；短期债券收 益率方面，1年期短债收益率月均值大 ...

Monetary Policy Operations - The People's Bank of China conducted a 236 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous operation, resulting in a net withdrawal of 376 billion yuan due to 612 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed slight fluctuations, with the overnight Shibor remaining stable at 1.3160%, the 7-day Shibor rising by 0.50 basis points to 1.4190%, and the 14-day Shibor decreasing by 0.90 basis points to 1.4430% [1] Interbank Repo Market - In the interbank pledged repo market, most rates saw slight increases, with the R007 transaction ratio rising to 10.6%. The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 increased by 0.0 basis points and 0.1 basis points, respectively, while DR007 and R007 both rose by 0.6 basis points [4] - The transaction volumes for DR001 and R001 increased by 188 billion yuan and 102.8 billion yuan, respectively, while DR007 saw a decrease of 139 million yuan, and R007's transaction volume increased by 247.2 billion yuan [4] Funding Conditions - The overall funding environment is described as balanced and slightly loose, with major banks lending well. The overnight pledged repo rates were reported at 1.28% to 1.43%, while 7-day pledged repo rates were around 1.45% to 1.47% [9] - As of 5:30 PM on October 16, there were 110 interbank certificates of deposit issued, with a total issuance amount of 152.78 billion yuan [9] Certificate of Deposit Market - In the primary market for certificates of deposit, issuers are actively raising prices, leading to a lively trading atmosphere. The secondary market showed moderate trading sentiment, with overall yields slightly increasing [10] - The 1-month national bank stock ended at approximately 1.51%, while the 3-month and 6-month national bank stocks saw slight declines and increases, respectively, with the 1-year national bank stock yielding between 1.6675% and 1.6725% [10] Banking Sector Developments - Recent leadership changes were reported in several branches of the Bank of China, including the appointment of new branch heads in Henan, Shanghai, and Jiangxi provinces [12] - Jilin Bank's registered capital increased from approximately 13.14 billion yuan to about 13.81 billion yuan, alongside changes in several senior management positions [13]