Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, indicating a potential upward trend despite temporary declines due to easing trade tensions and market dynamics [1][5]. Price Movements - On July 24, gold opened at $3388.15 per ounce, reached a high of $3393.15, and then fell to a low of $3351.30, closing at $3368.39, marking a daily decline of $19.76 or 0.58% [3]. - The price is expected to remain within a range, with strong support below, suggesting limited downside potential [5][9]. Market Influences - The easing of trade tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Japan, and progress in U.S.-EU trade agreements have reduced demand for safe-haven assets like gold, impacting its price [5]. - The outlook for interest rate cuts in the U.S. is anticipated to support gold prices, as comments from U.S. Treasury officials and President Trump suggest a significant reduction in rates may be forthcoming [5]. Technical Analysis - Gold is currently in a consolidation phase within a triangular pattern, indicating that while there may be short-term fluctuations, the overall trend remains bullish [5][9]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3350 and $3335, while resistance levels are at $3382 and $3393 [9]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term perspective suggests that gold will continue to be supported by global economic slowdown, expectations of loose monetary policy, and geopolitical risks, maintaining its status as a safe-haven asset [5]. - Predictions indicate that gold prices may oscillate between $3000 and $3500 in the second half of the year, with potential for a bullish market in the following year [7].

Economic Indicators - In June 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index in June was 50.5%, also up 0.2 percentage points from May[1] - The comprehensive PMI output index rose to 50.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from May[1] Policy Impact - The rebound in manufacturing PMI is attributed to the ongoing effects of growth-stabilizing policies, including a series of financial measures announced on May 7, which led to a sustained increase in social financing[2] - The new orders index increased by 0.4 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone, indicating strong market demand[2] Trade Environment - The easing of trade tensions, particularly following the May 12 de-escalation of the "tariff war," contributed to a slight recovery in the new export orders index, which rose to 47.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[2] Sector Performance - The construction PMI in June was 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, indicating robust activity despite a slight decline in civil engineering indices[6] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI remained stable at 50.9%, reflecting strong demand and policy support[4] Challenges Ahead - Despite the positive indicators, the overall export slowdown may continue due to high tariffs exceeding 40% on Chinese goods[3] - The real estate market shows signs of intensified adjustment, which may limit the PMI's rebound potential[3] Future Outlook - GDP growth for the first half of the year is projected at around 5.2%, with no major new policy measures expected in the short term[7] - The manufacturing PMI is anticipated to remain around 49.7% in July, but with significant downward risks due to external pressures[8]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. stock index futures have increased their gains to intraday highs as Treasury Secretary Yellen indicates a de-escalation in trade tensions [1] Group 1 - U.S. stock index futures are showing significant upward movement, reflecting positive market sentiment [1] - Treasury Secretary Yellen's comments on easing trade tensions are contributing to the bullish outlook in the market [1]

Core Insights - The Dalian Commodity Exchange's iron ore futures prices have reached a one-week high, driven by improved market sentiment due to easing trade tensions [1] - Iron ore inventories have continued to hit a 14-month low, indicating a tightening supply situation in the market [1] - The future price trends of iron ore remain uncertain and are a point of interest for market participants [1]

Core Viewpoint - The trade situation appears to be easing, while the economy still faces shallow and short recession risks [1] Group 1 - The European Central Bank's council member Martins Kazaks commented on the current trade dynamics [1] - There is an indication that the economic outlook remains fragile, with potential for a brief recession [1]

Group 1 - Major Wall Street banks, including Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and Citigroup, have delayed their expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts to December, reflecting a significant change in market sentiment regarding monetary policy adjustments [3][8] - The latest interest rate swap contracts indicate that the Federal Reserve may only cut rates by approximately 55 basis points this year, down from previous expectations of 75 basis points, showcasing a cautious market outlook on economic conditions [4][8] Group 2 - The easing of trade tensions is expected to boost economic growth by enhancing business confidence and promoting investment and consumption, which has reduced the urgency for the Federal Reserve to implement rate cuts [5][8] - Concerns remain regarding inflationary pressures due to tariff policies, as indicated by Federal Reserve Governor Kugler, suggesting that even with improved trade relations, inflation could rise and impact the Fed's decision-making on rate cuts [6][7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent high-level trade talks between China and the United States have led to a consensus to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels, easing global trade tensions and boosting market sentiment [1]. Market Summary Stock Market - US stock futures are collectively down, with the Dow Jones futures down 0.22%, S&P 500 futures down 0.30%, and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.41% [9]. - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose by 1.83%, marking its 13th consecutive day of gains and reaching its highest level since August 2009 [2][9]. - The Australian S&P/ASX 200 index increased by 0.47%, while the Taiwan Weighted Index rose by 1.81% [8][9]. - Conversely, the Indian SENSEX index fell by 0.84%, indicating a pause in its upward trend [9]. Bond Market - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond remained stable at 4.458% [4]. Currency Market - The US dollar weakened slightly against the Japanese yen, down 0.35% to 147.84, after a significant overnight surge of 2% [5][8]. - The US dollar index decreased by 0.22%, now at 101.56 [8]. Commodity Market - Spot gold prices increased by approximately $30, with a daily gain of 0.61%, reaching $3,254 per ounce [6][12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that while expectations of easing trade tensions are putting downward pressure on gold prices, the escalation of the India-Pakistan conflict is likely to sustain demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2 - The article highlights that the current geopolitical tensions, particularly between India and Pakistan, are contributing to increased risk perception in the market, which may bolster gold's appeal [1] - It notes that the interplay between trade relations and geopolitical conflicts will be crucial in determining gold's price trajectory in the near future [1]

Group 1 - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and a downward trend on April 29, as traders reacted positively to the easing trade tensions, leading to a reduced demand for safe-haven assets [1][2] - Asian countries have recently decided to exempt certain U.S. goods from tariffs, indicating a potential thaw in trade relations, which has contributed to the decline in gold prices [2] - The U.S. dollar showed a slight rebound against a basket of currencies, with the index rising to 99.08, further suppressing gold prices [2] Group 2 - Barclays strategists recommend investors to buy five-year U.S. Treasury bonds in preparation for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 91.1% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in May, with an 8.9% chance of a 25 basis point cut [2] - Gold prices are currently fluctuating within a significant range, with key resistance levels around 3365-3370 and support near 3260, indicating potential for further oscillation [3]

期货热点追踪 市场预期贸易局势缓和、基金多头持续加仓，美豆期货能否冲破关键阻力位？ 相关链接 ...