根据野村证券4月23日的研报，美国可能会在外汇谈判中施压日本，要求日本配合美国通过让美元贬 值、日元升值来减少美国贸易赤字，并以此为条件降低关税。 特朗普的核心目标是减少贸易赤字，关税和弱美元政策都能实现这一目标。此前，关税政策引发了市场 暴跌和公众批评，特朗普做出了妥协，也因此变得更加谨慎。相比之下，弱美元政策不会立刻引发物价 上涨或经济放缓，因此特朗普可能会选择这一策略，通过施压日本合作来推动美元贬值。 特朗普可能会施压日本，要么接受高关税，要么合作推动日元升值。 4月24日周四，日本财务大臣加藤胜信将于4月24日在华盛顿与贝森特就外汇问题展开谈判。据新华社报 道，日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮上周与美方进行了首轮谈判。随后，据环球时报，日本首相石破茂上周表 态称，在与美国政府举行的关税谈判中，日本"不打算做出重大让步，也不会急于达成协议"。 特朗普的"小算盘" 在达成《广场协议》后，世界主要经济体曾担心美元贬值会引起全球经济和金融动荡，因此各国协调合 作，通过有序控制美元贬值来避免这种冲击。但如今，世界经济体不再那么担心美元崩溃，所以不太可 能和特朗普政府合作，通过共同干预外汇市场来削弱美元。 然而，日本政府面 ...

Group 1: Tariff Impact on Trade - The "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the U.S. are unlikely to resolve the structural trade deficit, leading to escalating tariff levels, particularly against China, which saw tariffs rise to 125%[7] - If trade negotiations occur mid-year, China's exports to the U.S. could decline by approximately 40%, impacting total exports by 5% and GDP by 0.6%[2] - Delayed negotiations until year-end could result in an 8% decline in total exports, with a 26% impact on trade surplus and a GDP effect of 1.2%[2] Group 2: Historical Context and Economic Trends - The last significant rise in U.S. tariffs occurred between 1920-1933, contrasting sharply with the current economic and political landscape[2] - Historical tariff increases have often led to retaliatory measures from other countries, significantly affecting U.S. exports and contributing to economic downturns[40] - The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 raised tariffs to historic highs, exacerbating the Great Depression and leading to a 66% decline in world trade from 1929 to 1934[46] Group 3: Asset Market Outlook - The U.S. dollar is expected to weaken in the long term due to the "Triffin Dilemma," despite short-term volatility caused by market uncertainty[3] - U.S. Treasury yields are projected to remain stable, with the Federal Reserve expected to pause interest rate cuts in May and potentially lower rates four times within the year, totaling 100 basis points[3] - The U.S. stock market is anticipated to face downward pressure due to policy uncertainties and recession fears, leading to continued volatility[3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Trump's announcement of a reciprocal tariff plan affecting over 180 countries, proposing at least a 10% tariff or higher, which has raised significant skepticism regarding the calculations and logic behind these tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Calculations - Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" were based on questionable calculations, claiming that countries like China, the EU, and Vietnam impose high tariffs on the U.S., with figures such as 67% for China and 90% for Vietnam [2][3]. - The calculations presented by Trump were criticized for being based on trade deficits rather than actual tariff rates, leading to misleading conclusions about the tariffs imposed by other countries [3][4]. - Trump's team attempted to justify their calculations with a complex formula, but it was revealed that the core of their calculation was simply the trade deficit divided by imports, which aligned with the initial flawed calculations [4][8]. Group 2: Economic Assumptions - The underlying assumption of Trump's tariff strategy is that any trade deficit indicates unfair treatment, which overlooks the natural differences in production and demand between countries [15][16]. - The article argues that this perspective is fundamentally flawed, comparing it to everyday transactions where individuals or companies do not expect a zero-sum trade balance [16][17]. - The logic driving U.S. trade policy under Trump is described as absurd, raising questions about how other nations can negotiate with the U.S. under such irrational premises [18].

白宫经济顾问哈塞特：我们专注于多年来一直给我们造成贸易赤字的大型贸易伙伴。 ...

"美国总统特朗普称要保护美国的工业。美国宣布针对汽车加征关税，使得美国的汽车业永久地丧失竞 争力。在汽车行业，美国将无法与中国竞争。"美国哥伦比亚大学教授杰弗里·萨克斯3月27日在博鳌亚 洲论坛2025年年会上说，中国汽车业已引领世界汽车业，"美国将无法竞争，请享受你们的车——比亚 迪。" 杰弗里·萨克斯进一步指出，没必要指望打开美国市场或者是依赖美国市场，外面还有广阔的世界。"全 世界需要绿色、数字技术，而中国在可再生能源等诸多领域的技术都是领先的，这些都是全世界需要 的。中国将会赢得21世纪。" （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 杰弗里·萨克斯称："我不想太费劲去理解特朗普的贸易政策，因为其政策的很多认知基础是错误和原始 的。"谈及特朗普的动机，杰弗里·萨克斯指出，特朗普希望消除贸易赤字。然而，一个国家贸易赤字巨 大的时候，意味着其支出大于生产，这实际上与贸易无关，而是涉及财政支出。 当前，美国预算赤字很大，储蓄率非常低。美国财政部3月12日发布数据显示，2025财年前5个月（2024 年10月至2025年2月）联邦财政赤字达1.147万亿美元，创同期历史新高。其中2月单月赤字3070亿美 元，同比扩大约4 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent economic activity data in the US has shown signs of weakness, leading to pessimistic expectations for Q1 GDP growth, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicting a decline to -1.5% annualized growth [1][2] Group 1: Trade Deficit and Gold Imports - The significant increase in gold imports has been identified as a major factor contributing to the widening trade deficit, with January's goods trade deficit exceeding 6% of GDP [2] - Goldman Sachs estimates that gold imports in January amounted to approximately $25 billion, accounting for nearly the entire $31 billion increase in the trade deficit [2] - The surge in gold imports is primarily driven by market participants in Europe seeking to mitigate potential tariff risks, rather than reflecting immediate consumption needs [2][3] Group 2: GDP Growth Predictions - Goldman Sachs forecasts a Q1 2025 GDP growth rate of 1.6%, which, while lower than previous expectations, remains above the Atlanta Fed's prediction [3] - The firm maintains its Q4 2025 GDP growth forecast at 2.2%, slightly down from an initial expectation of 2.4% [3] Group 3: Consumer Spending and Unemployment Claims - Weak consumer spending in January is attributed to multiple factors, including cold weather, seasonal influences, and a normal correction following rapid consumption growth in the latter half of 2024 [6] - The rise in unemployment claims may be overstated due to seasonal volatility and difficulties in seasonal adjustment, with past spikes in claims often reverting quickly [6]