Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the "14th Five-Year Plan" period presents four significant opportunities for China's capital market, including policy dividends from deepened reforms, new momentum from economic transformation, improved institutional foundations, and value reassessment to invigorate market vitality [1][2][3] Group 2 - The first opportunity is the comprehensive deepening of reforms that will release policy dividends, with structural issues needing resolution through high-level opening and reform, which is expected to return economic growth to a reasonable range [2][3] - The second opportunity involves economic transformation that will foster new momentum, with emerging industries and the upgrading of traditional industries expected to create a market space of approximately 10 trillion yuan over the next five years [2][3] Group 3 - The third opportunity is the improvement of capital market systems, emphasizing "investor first" principles and promoting coordinated reforms in investment and financing, which will solidify the foundation for healthy market development [3][4] - The fourth opportunity is the value reassessment that will stimulate market vitality, driven by domestic economic transformation, diversification of resident assets, and global asset rebalancing [3][4] Group 4 - Wealth management institutions are expected to play a larger role in asset allocation, particularly in a low-interest and high-volatility environment, with a focus on four key areas for equity asset allocation over the next five years [4] - Gold is highlighted as having continued allocation value, with its share in private investment potentially increasing from just over 2% to 4-5% due to ongoing economic uncertainties [4] Group 5 - The future investment opportunities arising from transformation and upgrading will require enhanced asset allocation capabilities from wealth management institutions to navigate through economic cycles [4][5]

来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下简称"十五五"规划建议）不 仅勾勒出下一个五年的中国经济社会发展蓝图，还向资本市场传递了清晰的政策信号，相关部署对于资 本市场的改革发展、运行特征和投资逻辑必将产生深刻影响。 一、"十五五"规划建议关于资本市场工作的部署 针对资本市场下一个五年的发展规划，"十五五"规划建议在"加快完善要素市场化配置体制机制"部分， 强调要"促进各类要素资源高效配置，建立健全城乡统一的建设用地市场、功能完善的资本市场、流动 顺畅的劳动力市场、转化高效的技术市场"；在"提升宏观经济治理效能"部分，围绕"加快建设金融强 国"提出了"提高资本市场制度包容性、适应性，健全投资和融资相协调的资本市场功能。积极发展股 权、债券等直接融资，稳步发展期货、衍生品和资产证券化"。 如与"十四五"规划建议关于资本市场发展提出的"全面实行股票发行注册制，建立常态化退市机制，提 高直接融资比重"这一部署相比较，"十五五"规划建议更加突出了宏观层面的资本市场功能作用发挥， 尤其是将其纳入金融强国建设这一国家战略中进行部署，充分体现了接续推进中央金融工作会议关 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant growth in stamp duty revenue from securities transactions, indicating a revitalization of the capital market and increased investor confidence [1][2][3] - In the first ten months of the year, the national stamp duty revenue reached 378.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.5%, with securities transaction stamp duty contributing 162.9 billion yuan, up 88.1% [1] - The A-share market showed a positive trend with a total trading volume of 338.6 trillion yuan, reflecting an 87.7% year-on-year increase, closely aligning with the growth rate of securities transaction stamp duty [1][2] Group 2 - The increase in stamp duty revenue is supported by a series of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, including coordinated efforts from the People's Bank of China and other regulatory bodies [2] - The performance of listed companies has improved, with total operating income reaching 53.46 trillion yuan and net profit at 4.7 trillion yuan, marking year-on-year growth of 1.36% and 5.5% respectively [2] - The technology sector has seen a significant increase in market capitalization, with the electronic industry surpassing the banking sector, now accounting for 12.42% of the total market value, reflecting a shift in investment focus [2][3]

Core Insights - The significant increase in securities transaction stamp duty reflects a resurgence of investor confidence and market activity, with a 29.5% year-on-year growth in total stamp duty revenue and an 88.1% increase in securities transaction stamp duty revenue [1] - The A-share market has shown a positive trend with a total trading volume of 338.6 trillion yuan, marking an 87.7% year-on-year increase, which aligns closely with the growth in securities transaction stamp duty [1][2] Group 1: Market Activity and Investor Confidence - The number of new A-share accounts opened in the first ten months reached 22.46 million, a 10.6% year-on-year increase, indicating a rise in market participation and inflow of new capital [2] - The balance of margin financing and securities lending approached 2.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a 35% increase since the beginning of the year, signaling a shift from stock-based trading to capital-driven growth [2] Group 2: Policy Support and Market Stability - A series of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market have been implemented, including coordinated efforts from the People's Bank of China and other regulatory bodies to support market expectations and liquidity [2] - The involvement of long-term capital from various institutions, including the National Social Security Fund and banks, has contributed to market stability and increased equity allocation [2] Group 3: Corporate Performance and Sector Trends - In the first three quarters, listed companies achieved a total operating income of 5.346 trillion yuan and a net profit of 470 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.36% and 5.5%, respectively [3] - The technology sector has seen significant growth, with the total market capitalization of the electronics industry surpassing that of the banking sector, now accounting for 12.42% of the total market [3] Group 4: Tax Revenue and Economic Impact - The active capital market has led to a notable increase in personal income tax, which grew by 27.3% year-on-year in October, driven by the wealth effect from the capital market [3] - The growth in securities transaction stamp duty and related tax revenues indicates a broader economic impact, with increased activity in stock transfers and dividends contributing to higher tax collections [3] Group 5: Future Outlook - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is planning to enhance the resilience and stability of the capital market, focusing on improving regulatory effectiveness and attracting higher-quality listings [4]

虽然低基数效应在一定程度上放大了同比增速，但剔除基数影响后，2025年前10个月证券交易印花税较 2023年同期的1616亿元，仍有增长，反映真实交易热度回升。 "证券交易印花税是基于证券交易金额征收，直接与A股成交额挂钩，放量增长的成交量直接拉动证券 交易印花税大幅增长。"南开大学金融学教授田利辉分析。 今年以来，A股市场呈现回稳向好、量价齐升的良好态势。持续回暖的行情吸引大量资金入场，据Wind 数据统计，前10个月A股市场累计成交额达338.6万亿元，同比增长87.7%，与证券交易印花税88.1%的 增速高度吻合，是推动其增长最直接的原因。 市场活跃度的提升还体现在多项核心指标的同步向好。投资者信心持续回升，参与热情高涨，前10个月 A股新增开户数达到2245.88万户，同比增长10.6%，为市场带来了增量资金；投资者风险偏好回升，愿 意通过融资加大投入，截至10月末，A股两融余额逼近2.5万亿元，较年初增长35%，市场从存量博弈转 向增量资金驱动。 资本市场的向好表现与证券交易印花税的大幅增长，背后离不开稳市场、稳预期的一揽子金融政策支 持。今年5月，中国人民银行、金融监管总局、中国证监会等部门协同发 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to significantly increase the resident consumption rate, which is crucial for macroeconomic regulation and high-quality economic development [2][4]. Economic Goals - The plan emphasizes achieving high-quality development with notable improvements in economic growth, total factor productivity, and a sustained increase in the role of domestic demand in driving economic growth [2][4]. - The target is for the resident consumption rate to rise, requiring consumption growth to outpace overall economic growth [2][4]. Mechanisms for Improvement - The plan suggests enhancing the proportion of resident consumption in relation to resident income or increasing the share of resident income in GDP as pathways to boost the consumption rate [2][4]. - Key strategies include optimizing income distribution, expanding the middle-income group, and improving social security systems to enhance consumer confidence and spending [9][8]. Role of Capital Markets - Capital markets are expected to play a more active role in increasing the resident consumption rate by improving wealth effects and enhancing residents' income expectations [3][14]. - The low proportion of property income among Chinese residents is identified as a barrier to consumption, with recommendations to stabilize the stock market and broaden income channels [14][15]. Historical Context and Comparisons - The document draws parallels with the U.S. experience, where structural changes and retirement accounts significantly boosted consumer spending and income expectations [15]. - It highlights that during bull markets, consumer spending growth rates are higher compared to bear markets, indicating a correlation between stock market performance and consumption [15][16]. Policy Recommendations - Suggestions include enhancing dividend and buyback policies, improving risk management tools, and encouraging long-term investments to stabilize the stock market [16]. - The plan advocates for increasing the coverage of enterprise annuities and optimizing financial product offerings to improve residents' equity allocation [16].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 【国泰海通：多重因素支持中国权益表现 维持对A/H股战术性超配观点】智通财经11月25日电，国泰海 通证券发布研报称，多重因素支持中国权益表现，维持对A/H股的战术性超配观点。全球风险偏好大幅 承压导致的资产波动叠加恐慌抛售使得微观交易风险大幅释放。随着十五五开年经济增速的重要性，政 策窗口期临近，市场后续有望建立新预期。短期监管层对于稳定资本市场具备较强决心与行动部署。过 去造成股市估值折价的因素已有所消解，随着尾部风险下降以及人民币资产逐步企稳，中国资本市场处 于估值回升和大发展的周期，后续或仍有较大上行空间。中国权益相较于其他主要大类资产的风险回报 比较高。 转自：智通财经 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ ...

构建适应未来产业发展的金融体制是一项复杂的系统工程，要求我们以党的二十届四中全会精神为统 领，坚持有效市场和有为政府相结合，勇于打破路径依赖和制度壁垒，推动金融发展、金融创新与金融 监管在更高水平上实现动态平衡。 "十五五"时期是我国在全面建成小康社会基础上，乘势而上开启全面建设社会主义现代化国家新征程的 关键五年。党的二十届四中全会公报（以下简称《公报》）指出，要建设现代化产业体系，巩固壮大实 体经济根基，特别是要优化提升传统产业，培育壮大新兴产业和未来产业。以此审视并前瞻性地规划未 来产业发展，并构建与之相匹配的现代化金融体制，具有至关重要的战略意义。未来产业代表新科技革 命和产业变革的方向，是塑造国家竞争新优势、培育新质生产力的核心场域。它以其颠覆性创新、高风 险长周期、知识资本密集等特征，对传统以银行信贷为主导、偏好抵押担保和稳定现金流的金融体系提 出了挑战。因此，必须以《公报》和"十五五"规划建议为指引，深刻把握金融与实体经济，特别是与未 来产业之间的辩证关系，破除体制机制障碍，构建一个能够创新引领、有效支撑、精准灌溉、审慎监管 未来产业发展的现代化金融体制。这不仅是金融自身实现高质量发展的内在要求 ...

Economic Outlook - The goal for GDP per capita by 2035 is set at $29,000, necessitating a shift in China's economic logic from solely pursuing GDP growth to a new paradigm focusing on productivity enhancement, moderate inflation, and currency appreciation[1] - The new growth paradigm emphasizes the importance of nominal GDP growth and inflation levels, which directly impacts corporate profitability and capital returns[1] Market Dynamics - The equity market is positioned for a systematic revaluation, supported by three main factors: profit foundation, valuation environment, and relative returns[1] - The expectation of RMB appreciation is a significant driver for valuation improvements, enhancing the attractiveness of RMB assets and drawing global capital to Chinese assets[2] Asset Allocation Trends - There is a notable shift in asset preference from real estate and bonds to equities, driven by the changing yield characteristics of various asset classes in a moderate inflation environment[2] - Bonds, while still a stabilizing component, are expected to see diminishing capital gains potential, while real estate is facing downward pressure due to income and price expectations[2] Consumption and Production Insights - Recent data indicates a recovery in consumption, with metro passenger flow increasing by 5.9% year-on-year and logistics delivery volume rising by 5.8%[12] - Production shows structural improvement, particularly in real estate-related sectors, with a narrowing decline in rebar production and a continued decrease in inventory levels[14] Trade and External Factors - Port cargo throughput has decreased to 266 million tons, reflecting a structural adjustment in external demand, while the export container freight index has risen to 1094.03 points[25] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly with Japan, have introduced new uncertainties into the external trade environment, impacting market sentiment[25] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The broad deficit for the week ending November 23 reached 204.3 billion, with a cumulative total of 11.2 trillion, indicating a slower pace compared to the previous year[35] - The monetary market remains in a loose state, with indicators suggesting continued low interest rates and a high willingness to leverage in the bond market[44]

徐绍祖（联系人） 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号： Z0022675 美汽油裂差高位震荡， 纯苯美-韩价差新高 苯乙烯周报 从业资格号：F03115061 2025/11/22 CONTENTS 目录 03 利润库存 06 需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 美国大型科技公司财报好于预期，宏观情绪转强，资本市场及大宗商品止跌反弹。纯苯-石脑油（BZN价差）上涨，EB非一体化 装置利润上涨，整体估值中性偏低。苯乙烯供应端压力较大，需求端进入季节性旺季尾声，下游三S开工出现回落，港口库存高 位震荡。短期地缘导致原油价格中枢上移，成本端原油或将驱动苯乙烯价格震荡上行。但中长期供需双弱背景下，苯乙烯价格 或将保持下降趋势。美国汽油裂解价差高位盘整，纯苯美-韩价差强势上行，创同期新高。 本周预测：纯苯（BZ2603）：参考整荡区间（5400-5700）；苯乙烯(EB2601)：参考震荡区间（6400-6700）。 纯苯&苯乙烯周度策略 【行情资讯】 政策端：美国大型科技公司财报好于预期，资本市场 ...