专题：资本市场大咖2026新春献词：骏马踏春来 驭势稳行启新程 编者按：辞旧迎新，金马贺岁。值此新春佳节，新浪财经特邀公私募领域数十位领军人物，通过镜头与 文字，为投资者送来马年新春祝福。信心如磐，笃行致远。愿这一声声真挚寄语，伴您策马扬鞭，共赴 投资长路。 摩根士丹利基金总经理兼首席投资官周文秱送来新春祝福。他表示，摩根士丹利基金在2026年将继续依 托全球一体化平台，结合本土市场超过20年的经验和洞察，为投资者提供多元化、差异化的产品选择， 致力于打造长期优异的产品业绩，以专业优质的服务帮助投资者把握全球市场的投资机会。 祝福全文： 过去一年，国内宏观经济增速进入新常态，全球资本配置进入再平衡，中国资本市场取得了跃迁式发 展。面对复杂多变的内外部环境以及资本市场的结构性机会，摩根士丹利基金秉承"全球智慧，全心为 你"的理念，在投资业绩和客户服务等方面均交出了一份亮眼的成绩单。除了大摩数字经济混合基金近 两年业绩同类排名第一，我们旗下多只固收类产品2025年业绩同类排名也跻身前十分之一，公司管理规 模更是稳中有升。 展望2026年，新一轮科技革命和产业变革有望孕育更多新机遇，中国资本市场发展前景依旧向好。摩 ...

专题：资本市场大咖2026新春献词：骏马踏春来 驭势稳行启新程 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：上证盈视频 责任编辑：杨赐 专题：资本市场大咖2026新春献词：骏马踏春来 驭势稳行启新程 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：上证盈视频 责任编辑：杨赐 ...

踏马我也玩，但用一个土点的例子来对比的话，智谱、MiniMax 等 AI 圈的资本市场故事和踏马相比，就是刘亦菲和村口小花的差距村口小花可能也是个好女人，但是谁不为刘亦菲着迷呢币圈现在的情况确实让人提不起劲，唯有等待，等待流动性的回归。也就是今年回村吃饭得坐小孩桌了Yuyue (@yuyue_chris):如今人们对币圈的悲观从下至上，充斥在每一个环节，更有着其他资本市场发生的更性感的故事冲击刚才才发现当初买了将近一万 u 的 espresso NFT 领空投还需要注册。权益类 NFT 不给你领取权益的机会，即便真的拿到也是反撸，好歹给人一个领取权益的机会呢？不给 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 专题：资本市场大咖2026新春献词：骏马踏春来 驭势稳行启新程 专题：资本市场大咖2026新春献词：骏马踏春来 驭势稳行启新程 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 ...

Group 1 - The central bank released financial data for January, showing that the broad money supply (M2) reached 347.19 trillion yuan at the end of January 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 9.0%, which is 0.5 percentage points higher than the previous month and 2.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] - Market experts noted that the year-on-year growth of M2 in January indicates an increase compared to the previous month, attributed to a base effect where January 2025 saw an increase of approximately 5 trillion yuan, resulting in a relatively low base for comparison [1] - The positive performance of the capital market at the beginning of the year is also contributing to the growth in M2, although it is expected that as the base effect diminishes, the M2 trend will stabilize [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the optimistic outlook for the capital market in 2026, suggesting a stable and promising journey ahead for investors and market participants [1][2]. Group 1 - The article highlights the importance of professional analysis and timely research reports in identifying potential investment opportunities in the stock market [1][2]. - It mentions the role of authoritative analysts in providing comprehensive insights that can aid investors in making informed decisions [1][2]. Group 2 - The piece is part of a special feature that aims to convey messages of hope and stability as the new year approaches, symbolized by the metaphor of a horse galloping into spring [1][2]. - The article is published by Guolian Minsheng Research, indicating a collaboration with Sina, which aims to disseminate valuable information to the public [1][2].

Core Insights - Hydrogen and nuclear fusion energy are identified as key economic growth points in China's 14th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the importance of a mature capital market for supporting breakthroughs in these industries [1][2][3] - The global energy landscape is undergoing significant transformation towards decarbonization and smart restructuring, with hydrogen and nuclear fusion positioned as disruptive future energy solutions [2][3] Global Industry Landscape - The hydrogen industry is entering a phase of commercialization and rapid expansion, driven by strategic planning and policy incentives in developed economies, leading to high valuations for hydrogen technology companies [3] - Nuclear fusion is transitioning from government-led research to a public-private partnership model, attracting significant investment from venture capital and tech giants, reflecting strong market expectations for its long-term potential [3] China's Role in Global Capital Landscape - China is becoming an increasingly important player in the global renewable energy capital landscape, with its vast market potential and rapid development in hydrogen and nuclear fusion attracting international capital [3][4] - To enhance its competitive position, China must focus on original technology leadership, self-sufficiency in core supply chains, and building a more internationalized and market-oriented innovation capital ecosystem [3][4] Capital Market Empowerment - The development of hydrogen and nuclear fusion industries in China is characterized by a "national leadership, market participation, and capital promotion" model, with the capital market playing a crucial role in driving innovation [4][5] - In the hydrogen sector, China has established a complete industrial chain, with capital market support focusing on upstream hydrogen production, midstream storage and transportation, and downstream applications [4][5] Technological Challenges and Investment Dynamics - Both hydrogen and nuclear fusion face significant technological and economic challenges, requiring substantial long-term capital investment and a shift in investment logic towards patience and long-termism [6][7] - The hydrogen sector's challenges include reducing production costs and improving storage and transportation efficiency, while nuclear fusion faces fundamental scientific hurdles that require decades of research [7][8] Policy and Financial Collaboration - Policy and finance are essential drivers for the development of hydrogen and nuclear fusion industries, with the capital market's role evolving from a passive financing channel to an active enabler and value integrator [8][9] - For hydrogen, policies should create stable expectations and clear pathways, while for nuclear fusion, establishing specialized funds and supportive regulatory frameworks is crucial for attracting investment [9][10] Opportunities for Securities Firms - The success of hydrogen and nuclear fusion will reshape global capital dynamics and investment paradigms, creating new asset classes and investment opportunities [10][11] - Securities firms are tasked with broadening financing channels, innovating financial products, and enhancing research capabilities to support the growth of these industries [10][11] Future Implications - The capital influx into hydrogen and nuclear fusion signifies a broader investment in future energy solutions, which will fundamentally alter the logic of capital markets and global financial landscapes [12][13] - This shift will lead to the emergence of new asset valuation models and accelerate the transition of global capital towards sustainable technologies [12][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Views - In the medium to long term, the policy's supportive attitude towards the capital market remains unchanged. The strategy is to buy on dips. For the bond market, it is expected to be in a strong and volatile trend. For precious metals, they are in a high - level volatile pattern, and the market focus has shifted to the upcoming US CPI data. For various commodities, their price trends are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, seasonal factors, and policy impacts, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed for each commodity [4][7][9]. Summary by Directory Macro - Financial Category Index - **Market Information**: On February 13, the central bank conducted 100 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations; the European Central Bank Executive Committee will expand the scope of application of the euro back - up financing mechanism; many car companies disclosed their solid - state battery technology paths and industrial plans; some companies made progress in 3D printing technology and PCB production [2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: Presented the basis annualized ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods [3]. - **Strategy View**: Due to the intensifying divergence in US monetary policy expectations, the risk appetite of the capital market is suppressed, and the US stocks and precious metals are highly volatile. Domestically, the liquidity is tightened seasonally approaching the Spring Festival. The strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On February 13, the central bank conducted 100 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operations, with an incremental scale of 50 billion yuan compared to the maturity amount. In 2025, commercial banks' net profit was 2.4 trillion yuan, and the average capital profit rate and average asset profit rate were 7.78% and 0.60% respectively. The central bank's net injection on Thursday was 44.8 billion yuan [5][6]. - **Strategy View**: The central bank emphasizes the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, and the capital market is expected to remain loose. The economic recovery foundation is not solid, and the bond market is expected to be in a strong and volatile trend [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: On Thursday, precious metals tumbled. The decline was due to the decline of US technology stocks, investors' forced liquidation, and profit - taking. The US initial jobless claims and continuing jobless claims data were released, and the US existing home sales in January decreased by 8.4% month - on - month [8]. - **Strategy View**: Although short - term monetary policy expectations suppress precious metals, they are still in a high - level volatile pattern. The market is waiting for the US CPI data. The strategy is to wait and see, with the reference ranges of 950 - 1100 yuan/gram for Shanghai gold and 18500 - 21000 yuan/kilogram for Shanghai silver [9][10]. Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: Before the domestic long holiday, funds were cautious. Overnight silver and US stocks declined, and copper prices fell after rising. LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory also increased [12][13]. - **Strategy View**: Although the market sentiment is affected by the decline of precious metals, the strong manufacturing in Europe and the US provides support. The copper price is expected to be in a high - level volatile pattern during the long holiday, with reference ranges of 99000 - 103000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 12500 - 13200 US dollars/ton for LME copper [14]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The Mozambique aluminum smelter is expected to shut down for maintenance in March. Aluminum prices rose and then fell. The domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased [15]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic demand is weak, but the low LME inventory and high US aluminum spot premium support the price. The aluminum price is expected to be in a volatile and upward trend during the long holiday, with reference ranges of 23200 - 23600 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum and 3050 - 3140 US dollars/ton for LME aluminum [16]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc index rose slightly. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory started to accumulate, and the downstream enterprise operation was average [17]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc mine inventory accumulation slowed down, and the zinc concentrate TC stabilized. Although the domestic zinc industry is weak, the strong US PMI may drive the zinc price to rise, and there is still a risk of price fluctuations during the Spring Festival [17][18]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead index fell slightly. The lead ingot social inventory increased, and the waste battery inventory was higher than that in 2025 [19]. - **Strategy View**: The lead ore inventory is still higher than the same period in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fee is low. The lead price is near the lower edge of the long - term shock range, and whether it can stabilize depends on the post - holiday restocking willingness of downstream enterprises [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price fluctuated. The spot premium of nickel was stable, and the nickel ore price was stable. The price of nickel iron rose slightly [20]. - **Strategy View**: After the second decline of precious metals and risk assets, there is a short - term rebound demand, but the nickel price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern due to fundamental pressure. The approved nickel ore production quota has little impact on the price, with reference ranges of 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai nickel and 16,000 - 18,000 US dollars/ton for LME nickel [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price fluctuated. The smelter's production in Yunnan was stable, and that in Jiangxi was low due to the shortage of waste tin raw materials. The downstream demand was weak [21]. - **Strategy View**: The tin price may rebound with the stabilization of precious metals, but it is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern in the short term due to the marginal relaxation of supply - demand and the increase in inventory. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference ranges of 350,000 - 410,000 yuan/ton for the domestic main contract and 46,000 - 50,000 US dollars/ton for LME tin [23]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The lithium carbonate spot index rose, and the futures price fell slightly. The inventory decreased [24]. - **Strategy View**: The supply has decreased, and the demand is expected to be strong. The short - term supply - demand pattern is tight. The upstream has more bargaining power after the holiday. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 143,000 - 157,000 yuan/ton [25]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index fell slightly, and the trading volume decreased. The spot price in Shandong was at a discount to the main contract [26]. - **Strategy View**: There is a strike in the Guinea bauxite mine area, and the alumina smelting capacity is in excess. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference range of 2750 - 3000 yuan/ton for the main contract AO2605 [27]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract fell. The spot price was stable, and the inventory increased [29]. - **Strategy View**: The supply pressure is controllable, and the demand is weak before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the reference range of 13,500 - 14,500 yuan/ton for the main contract [29]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast aluminum alloy price rebounded slightly, and the trading volume increased. The inventory increased [30]. - **Strategy View**: Although the demand is average, the price is supported by supply - side disturbances and seasonal raw material shortages [31]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased slightly. The rebar inventory started to accumulate, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased slightly [33]. - **Strategy View**: The carbon emission trading policy may increase the cost of the steel industry. The steel market is in a bottom - game stage, and it is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to inventory inflection points and policy changes [35]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract fell slightly. The overseas iron ore shipment decreased, and the port inventory decreased [36]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas iron ore shipment is in the off - season, and the iron water production is in a recovery trend. The ore price is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern before the festival. Attention should be paid to overseas shipments and domestic terminal demand after the festival [37]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke fell slightly. The spot prices of coking coal and coke were at a premium to the futures prices [38]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas coal - related disturbances have a positive impact on sentiment, but the short - term upward drive of coking coal is not strong. The downstream replenishment is coming to an end, and there is a risk of price correction after the festival. Coking coal may have a better performance from June to October [40][42]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The glass main contract fell. The inventory increased, and the downstream demand was weak [44]. - **Strategy View**: The glass market is expected to be in a volatile and sorted pattern, with the reference range of 1030 - 1120 yuan/ton for the main contract [45]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The soda ash main contract fell. The inventory increased, and the demand for heavy soda ash was weak [46]. - **Strategy View**: The soda ash market is in a weak and stable volatile pattern, with the reference range of 1140 - 1230 yuan/ton for the main contract [46]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell. The spot prices were at a premium to the futures prices [47]. - **Strategy View**: The long - term commodity market is expected to be bullish, but the short - term market sentiment is affected by precious metals. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is loose, and that of ferrosilicon is balanced. Attention should be paid to the cost push of manganese ore and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon [48][49]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon futures price fell. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weak [50]. - **Strategy View**: The industrial silicon market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in February. The price is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to market sentiment [51]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The polysilicon futures price fell. The supply decreased, and the inventory is expected to decrease slightly [52]. - **Strategy View**: The polysilicon market is expected to be in a volatile pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand and spot prices [53]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated with the commodity market. The tire enterprise operating rate decreased, and the inventory increased [56][57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to reduce risks before the Spring Festival, trade short - term on the disk, and hold a hedging position during the festival [58]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude oil futures price rose slightly. The US crude oil commercial inventory increased, and the diesel and fuel oil inventories decreased [59]. - **Strategy View**: The current oil price has priced in a high geopolitical premium. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [61]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol spot price changed slightly, and the futures price decreased [62]. - **Strategy View**: Methanol has priced in many negative factors. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions and wait and see in the short term [63]. Urea - **Market Information**: The urea spot price was stable, and the futures price rose [64]. - **Strategy View**: The import window has opened, and the fundamental outlook is negative. It is recommended to short - sell [65]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC futures price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [66]. - **Strategy View**: The PVC market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The short - term price is supported by electricity price expectations and export rush, and attention should be paid to capacity and operating rate changes [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol futures price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [68]. - **Strategy View**: The ethylene glycol market needs to reduce production to improve the supply - demand pattern. There is a risk of price rebound due to geopolitical factors and coal price rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA futures price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [70]. - **Strategy View**: The PTA market is in the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. The processing fee is expected to be stable at a high level, and there is an opportunity to buy on dips after the Spring Festival [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene futures price fell. The supply was high, and the demand from downstream PTA was weak. The inventory increased [72]. - **Strategy View**: The p - xylene market is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. The valuation is expected to rise after the Spring Festival, and there is an opportunity to buy on dips following the crude oil price [73][74]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price fluctuated. The trading volume decreased approaching the Spring Festival [76]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term pig price is under pressure due to large supply and high inventory. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies. The long - term price may be supported by seasonal factors and demand recovery [77]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price was stable in most markets approaching the Spring Festival [78]. - **Strategy View**: The egg market is in the inventory - accumulation period. The short - term price is under pressure, and it is recommended to short - sell. The long - term price trend depends on capacity reduction [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The domestic soybean meal price was stable, and the rapeseed meal price rose. The global soybean supply and demand were slightly adjusted in the USDA report [80]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term protein meal price is expected to be in a volatile pattern due to the increase in US soybean procurement expectations and the rise in import costs [81]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The domestic soybean oil price rose, the palm oil price fell, and the rapeseed oil price was stable. The global palm oil supply and demand data were released [82][83]. - **Strategy View**: The consumption growth of oils and fats is greater than the production growth this year. It is recommended to wait for a pull - back to go long [84]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The domestic sugar price fell. The domestic and foreign sugar production and sales data were released [85][86]. - **Strategy View**: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest is completed. The domestic sugar price has limited downward space. It is recommended to wait and see [87]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The domestic cotton price rose. The domestic and foreign cotton supply and demand data were released in the USDA report [88][89]. - **Strategy View**: The USDA report is neutral. It is recommended to try to go long at the lower edge of the shock range after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate and the new cotton target price policy [90].

重磅！"2025年度十大宏观经济学家"名单揭晓 中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛荣膺"2025年度十大宏观经济学家"！ 精彩观点回顾： 管涛：解读2025年中国经济收官答卷 管涛：从宏观视角展望2026年中国资本市场机遇 管涛："灵活高效"的货币政策意味着什么 管涛：人民币国际化急需六大配套改革 管涛："十五五"时期中国资本市场面临重大机遇 管涛：年内宏观政策或需适时加力 2025年，中国经济承压前行、向新向优，财政更加积极、货币适度宽松，宏观政策协同提效、精准发 力，推动经济运行稳中有进、高质量发展取得新成效。立足变局交织与转型攻坚的关键阶段，宏观经济 学家们紧扣时代脉搏，以全局视野、专业研判与扎实立论洞察发展大势；他们聚焦新质生产力、内需提 振、风险化解与长期增长建言献策，在变局中厘清发展逻辑，于前行中领航宏观方向。 新浪财经携手首席经济学家论坛、新经济学家智库，评选出"2025年度十大宏观经济学家"。 本次评选由评委会综合"专业性、影响力、创新性、前瞻性、活跃度"五大维度，经评审团投票，并参考 作品前瞻性、出产率等数据，综合评选出最终获奖结果。 新浪财经携手首席经济学家论坛、新经济学家智库，评选出"2025 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the non-bank financial sector, particularly the insurance and brokerage industries, with a positive outlook on the capital market's stability and growth potential [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Policy Support**: The chairman, Wu Qing, emphasized the commitment to consolidating the positive momentum in the capital market [3]. 2. **Market Stability**: The trading pressure is easing, enhancing the market's inherent stability and preventing significant fluctuations. The previous disruptions faced by brokerage and insurance sectors are being resolved, leading to a more stable market environment [3]. 3. **Market Performance**: - In 2026, the A-share market's daily trading volume reached nearly 30 trillion yuan, a 73% increase compared to 2025. - In January 2026, there were 4.92 million new A-share accounts opened, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 89% and a year-on-year increase of 213% [3]. 4. **Non-Bank Sector Outlook**: The non-bank financial sector is expected to perform well, with insurance showing improved profitability and a new cycle of growth established [3]. 5. **Asset Side**: Stable long-term interest rates and a favorable capital market environment are expected to enhance performance flexibility in the investment sector [4]. 6. **Liability Side**: The "opening red" (a term for the first sales of the year) sets a positive tone for new business throughout the year, with the insurance sector benefiting from the trend of bank deposits moving to insurance products, which are seen as a safe financial alternative [4]. 7. **Brokerage Sector**: - In a slow bull market, there is a significant mismatch between fundamentals and valuations, presenting high cost-performance ratios for investments. - Listed brokerages that have released earnings forecasts show a year-on-year net profit growth of approximately 60%. Leading brokerages are experiencing steady growth, while some smaller firms are showing notable performance elasticity [6]. - The overall price-to-book (PB) ratio for the brokerage industry is only 1.36 times, indicating a significant lag in valuation compared to fundamentals, suggesting a high cost-performance ratio at current levels [6]. Recommendations - Suggested companies to focus on include China Ping An, China Life, New China Life, and Guotai Junan [7]. Risk Factors 1. Significant fluctuations in the equity market could impact net profits. 2. Policy implementation may not meet expectations. 3. The growth rate of new business value (NBV) in the life insurance sector may fall short of expectations. 4. Risks associated with interest rate declines beyond expectations could lead to margin loss [8].