Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights an unprecedented level of bearish sentiment towards the US dollar, driven by concerns over Trump's erratic tariff policies and the expanding fiscal deficit [1][4][5] - The one-year risk reversal indicator, which measures the cost difference between buying and selling a currency, has dropped to -27 basis points, indicating a strong preference for put options over call options [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has declined over 6% year-to-date, marking the worst start to a year for the index in two decades [1] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding US policies, particularly Trump's inconsistent tariff strategies, is a significant factor undermining confidence in the dollar and raising doubts about the predictability of US economic growth [4] - The worsening fiscal situation in the US, exacerbated by a large tax cut proposal, is expected to further increase the already high federal deficit, leading to concerns about the dollar's stability [5] - Moody's has downgraded the US credit rating from AAA, citing a substantial increase in government debt and interest payments over the past decade [5] Group 3 - The extreme bearish sentiment towards the dollar suggests potential outflows from US assets, prompting investors to consider increasing exposure to alternative currencies such as the euro and yen [5] - Some analysts caution that such extreme pessimism could signal a potential rebound for the dollar, as overly negative market sentiment may create opportunities for contrarian trading [5]

Group 1 - The main risk facing the Japanese yen is the lack of progress in US-Japan trade negotiations, which could lead to a weakening of the yen during the summer [1][2] - Analysts from Bank of America indicated that if substantial progress is not made by mid-June, it will exacerbate fiscal and political risks in Japan, further weakening the yen [1][2] - The recent easing of trade tensions between China and the US contrasts with the stagnation in US-Japan trade talks, raising concerns about Japan's fiscal situation [1][2] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan has adopted a dovish stance in its recent monetary policy meeting, reducing market expectations for interest rate hikes, while the Federal Reserve maintained its position, dampening expectations for rate cuts [2] - Structural factors, including record purchases of foreign stocks by Japanese trust accounts, are contributing to the ongoing pressure on the yen [3] - If US-Japan trade negotiations do not progress by mid-June, further weakness in the yen and Japanese government bonds is anticipated [2][3] Group 3 - The trend of Japanese retail investors continuing to purchase foreign stocks indicates a structural outflow of funds, which will exert long-term pressure on the yen [3] - The potential for the euro to rise against the yen if EU-US trade negotiations progress faster than those between Japan and the US could further challenge the yen's performance [3] - June mid-point is critical for observing the yen's trajectory, with significant downside risks if trade negotiations remain stalled [3]

Core Insights - European real estate funds are facing a severe capital outflow, with retail investors redeeming €11.44 billion (approximately $13 billion) from registered real estate funds in the region as of March 2023, marking a 20% increase compared to the previous 12 months [1] - Since February 2023, euro-denominated real estate funds have consistently experienced net outflows [1] Group 1 - Investor sentiment is increasingly negative, driven by rising default rates and the impact of the interest rate hike cycle on the attractiveness of the sector [4] - The long transaction cycles and lagging valuation adjustments in commercial real estate make it difficult for fund net values to reflect real market risks, prompting investors to exit early to mitigate risks [4] - The shift in work patterns and stricter environmental regulations are reshaping the value system of commercial real estate, leading to significant valuation declines for office assets held by many funds, creating a vicious cycle of redemption pressure and asset disposal difficulties [4] Group 2 - A wave of fund liquidations is underway, with St James's Place Plc in the UK gradually liquidating its real estate fund portfolio after large-scale redemptions, and Aegon Ltd. in the Netherlands closing related products due to sustained fund sizes below breakeven [4] - Goldman Sachs also terminated a global real estate securities fund that had incurred losses for five consecutive years [4] - There is a notable trend of capital shifting towards more stable asset classes, with DWS Group's alternative real estate fund experiencing approximately €500 million in redemptions in Q1 2023, as funds flow into infrastructure and private credit [4] Group 3 - The industry has not yet reached a turning point, as market expectations of central bank interest rate cuts boosting real estate prices are tempered by reality [4] - Data from Green Street indicates that U.S. hotel property valuations fell by 2.8% in April due to weak international tourism, contributing to a 0.5% decline in the overall commercial real estate index [4] - The management scale of European real estate funds has shrunk to €156 billion, a decrease of approximately €44 billion from the peak in February 2023 [5] - DWS Group's CEO, Stefan Hoops, acknowledged ongoing capital outflows but expressed cautious optimism regarding the medium to long-term outlook due to current valuation levels [5] - The ongoing industry adjustment, initiated by capital movements, is testing the asset disposal capabilities and strategic transformation resolve of European real estate funds [5]

赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 陈达飞 首席宏观分析师 李欣越 高级宏观分析师 联系人： 李欣越 摘要 4月2日以来，特朗普关税落地后，美元汇率"意外"走弱、但人民币仍相对承压。近期美元走弱背后的"异 象"，后续美元、人民币汇率的可能演绎？本文分析，可供参考。 一、近期美元走弱有何异常？与美德利差走势背离，兑发达市场与新兴市场分化 年初以来，美元持续走弱，兑发达市场与新兴市场货币的走势明显分化。 1月10日以来，美元持续走 弱；截至4月17日，美元指数跌破100关口、跌至99.4，跌幅高达9.3%。分经济体来看，美元兑发达市 场、新兴市场货币的走势明显分化，分别回落7.6%、1.4%。 4月7日以前，美元的走弱主因美国衰退预期的升温。 1月10日以来，美国经济持续走弱，花旗经济意外 指数由14.5回落至-19.5。衰退担忧下，市场的降息预期也逐步回升，由1.2次一度升至4月4日的4.2次，10 年期美债利率随之大幅回落62bp、导致了美元的相对疲软。 4月7日以来，美债利率反弹、但美元仍在走弱，或因海外资金在"逃离美国"。 市场完成了从"flight to safety"向"flight to non-US ...