Key Points - The bond market is showing overall strength with a balanced and slightly loose funding environment [2][4] - The issuance of technology innovation bonds has exceeded 400 billion yuan, with 216 bonds issued since May 7 [4] - China's foreign exchange reserves increased by 3.6 billion USD to 328.53 billion USD at the end of May [4] - The Ministry of Finance announced the issuance of 50 billion yuan in savings bonds with fixed interest rates [6] - The total scale of bond ETFs has surpassed 300 billion yuan, indicating a growing trend in stable asset allocation [6] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, slightly above expectations, but previous months' data were significantly revised down [7] - International oil prices continue to rise, with WTI crude oil up 6.23% for the week [8] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 135 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net withdrawal of 151.6 billion yuan [10] - The bond market is experiencing a strong performance, with the yield on 10-year government bonds declining to 1.6525% [14] - The secondary market for credit bonds showed significant price deviations, with some bonds experiencing over 10% price changes [16] - The convertible bond market saw major indices rise, with a total trading volume of 69.546 billion yuan [18] - U.S. Treasury yields rose across all maturities, with the 10-year yield increasing to 4.51% [20] - Major European economies saw a decline in 10-year government bond yields, with Germany's yield down to 2.56% [23]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that market information is abundant and both positive and negative signals coexist, making it problematic to directly correlate events with outcomes [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a 126.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with 266 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 139.5 billion yuan [1]. - The funding environment is balanced and slightly loose, with stable funding rates; DR001 and DR007 remained around 1.41% and 1.55% for three consecutive days [1]. - The 10-year government bond yield opened slightly lower at 1.669% and fluctuated around 1.67% throughout the day [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Caixin Services PMI for May was reported at 51.1, slightly above the previous value of 50.7, indicating a modest expansion in the services sector [3]. - The central bank's early announcement of a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation was seen as a protective measure ahead of a significant maturity of 4.2 trillion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the news of a potential China-US dialogue, the stock market experienced a slight uptick, while the bond market showed minimal volatility with the 10-year bond yield fluctuating only 1 basis point [3]. - The article suggests that the real dynamics are occurring in the "dark card" area, where the implications of the China-US handshake and the central bank's bond purchases are closely intertwined [3].

Group 1 - The article discusses two types of market breakouts: one driven by rumors leading to a subtle rise, and the other driven by news resulting in a clear rise, with caution advised for the latter due to potential short-term pullbacks [1] - The current financial environment shows a balanced and slightly loose liquidity, with the central bank conducting a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 214.9 billion yuan, while 215.5 billion yuan of reverse repos are maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 0.6 billion yuan [1] - The interbank funding market shows a slight decline in long-term bond yields, with the DR001 rate around 1.41% and DR007 at approximately 1.55% [1] Group 2 - The bond market sentiment is positive, with the 10-year government bond yield opening at 1.675% and slightly decreasing to around 1.6715% before fluctuating again due to market reactions to news from Trump regarding trade agreements [3] - The stock market experienced a slight increase, while the bond market remains cautious, with the 10-year bond yield showing minor fluctuations influenced by external news [3] - A significant trading activity in the 30-year government bond futures was noted, driven by a large order that sparked buying interest, indicating a responsive market to external news [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market dynamics, highlighting the impact of interest rate adjustments on both the stock and bond markets, as well as shifts in consumer spending behavior and preferences in entertainment activities. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The trading volume indicates significant divergence in market sentiment, with low volumes suggesting indecision and high volumes indicating consensus on price levels, leading to energy accumulation and release cycles [1] - The central bank conducted a 3.57 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net injection of 1.77 billion yuan, contributing to a balanced and slightly loose funding environment [1][2] - The recent adjustments in deposit rates and LPR (Loan Prime Rate) led to a slight increase in stock prices and a modest rise in bond yields, with the 10-year government bond yield moving to approximately 1.666% [1][2] Group 2: Consumer Spending Trends - In 2024, the average per capita consumption in the national catering sector decreased to 39.8 yuan, a year-on-year decline of 6.6%, with the proportion of consumers increasing spending dropping from 50.0% in 2023 to 31.3% [4] - The contribution of the 20-39 age group to consumption growth has fallen from 30.3% to 19.1% since 2018, reflecting a shift in entertainment preferences towards more contemplative activities like park visits and City Walks [6] - A significant decline in traditional entertainment activities is noted, with KTV and bars experiencing a drop of 87% and 65% respectively, while activities like park visits and City Walks have seen substantial increases of 226% and 218% [8]

想要完全掌握一种手法，至少需要实盘训练半年以上，才能消化里面的一些细节。总结一招，就要猛练 一招，不然我们根本不会了解到其中的优缺点和适用场景。 ——笔记哥《交易》 【笔记20250507— 太多的巧合：中美，印巴，双降（-中美将在瑞士会晤-降准降息落地-股市偏强+资金 面均衡偏松=中上)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率明显上行。 在"924"的学习效应下，今日债市止盈者众。预期管理了半年了的降准降息今天终于落地，债农天天埋 怨YM怎么还在"择机"。今朝落地，每月都预测一波降息的债农还是不满：一个坏掉的钟，一天也能对 两次。但这次对了，下次不知还要多久哇。 中美大佬瑞士约茶，双方发言堪比言情剧剧本： 中方表示会谈是应美方请求举行的，属"霸道总裁"风：对方主动约的我。 美方表示瑞士谈判是"凑巧"，为"口嫌体正直"风：只是转角遇到爱啦。 今天很多的巧合，中美关税问题要会晤了，巴铁干掉印度6驾战机，国内降准降息落地。这么多的内外 利好在同一天展现，很多时候还是需要亮亮拳头的。 央行公开市场开展1955亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有5308亿元逆回购到期，净回笼3353亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金价格延续回落，DR001 ...

当我们感悟到异常，发现预期差时，阻碍我们去行动的最大障碍就是"希望交易"，尤其是，当市场已经开始出现相应的波动后，"回头看"会让我们后悔没 有在最佳的位置买入或卖出，于是就希望市场回到之前的位置再执行。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250429— 经济学 VS 医学（+博弈明日PMI数据+资金面均衡偏松=小下)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率小幅下行。 央行公开市场开展3405亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有2205亿元逆回购到期，净投放1200亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，DR001下至1.54%附近，DR007因跨月小幅上至1.78%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.04.29) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.59 | 3 1 | | 2. ...

上涨了，恐高的天性就会让你欲卖出落袋为安，上车的人一震就跑，没上的人，要么一直不敢上处于踏空中，要么一震就做空。总之，震荡中多数人眼里 看到的不是上车做多的机会，而是恐慌。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250428— 川大智胜，耗子尾汁（+"稳就业"发布会未超预期+资金面均衡偏松=小下)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率小幅下行。 央行公开市场开展2790亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1760亿元逆回购到期，净投放1030亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，DR001小幅下至1.59%附近，DR007因跨月小幅上至1.75%附近。 2400006 1.8800/1.8800/1.8680/1.8700 -1.10 -------------------------- 周末宏观消息面平静，早盘债市情绪略偏积极，10Y国债利率基本平开在1.655%后小幅下至1.65%附近。上午"稳就业稳经济"发布会未超预期，股市午后 小幅下跌，资金面全天均衡偏松，10Y国债利率小幅下至1.64%附近。 -------------------------- 从我们上周五的问卷调查结果来看，超七成的投资者选择"持券过节"而非"持币过节"。今日发布会 ...

资金面均衡偏松，DR001下行2BP至1.58%附近、DR007下行8BP至1.64%附近。 异常只是一种感觉，在有感觉之后，要找预期差。越是政策意图或方向上的预期差，给市场带来的波动就越大，而不是自己的感觉，政策意图上的边际变 化，才是债市波动的根本推动力。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250425— 操盘的艺术：3296->3297->3295，1.6575->1.6575->1.6575（-彭博称中国考虑豁免部分对美关税+政治局会议未超预期+资金面均衡偏松 =微上)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率微幅上行。 央行公开市场开展1595亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有2505亿元逆回购到期，净回笼910亿元。 -------------------------- 【今日盘面】 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 04. 25) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) ...

右侧，成功率更高，获利更为客观；同样的，与其主观预测行情结束，不如等行情盘整并开始反转后离场，虽然这样会错过一部分利润，但相比起错失之 后可能的行情延续，这些代价是值得的。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250423— 上，每调买机；下，落袋为安（-特朗普称或将大幅降低对华关税-传央行调研久期错配风险+资金面均衡偏松=小上)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率小幅上行。 央行公开市场开展1080亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1045亿元逆回购到期，净投放35亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，DR001与DR007双降，前者下行近8个bp至1.63%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.04.23) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利车 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.66 | | | 2.50 ...

资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率明显下行。 【笔记20250422— 购金大户不止央妈，还有大妈（+传MLF投标区间下移+资金面均衡偏松=中下)】 央行公开市场开展2205亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1645亿元逆回购到期，净投放560亿元。 试盘，不是让我们盲目地跟着感觉去随意地入场，赚了就加仓，亏了就止损。而是要建立自己的一套投资体系，哪怕只是简单的出入场标准。建立体系标 准之后，认真观察市场走势，耐心等待入场条件。 ——笔记哥《应对》 | | | | 2025年1-3月 | | | 单位:万元 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 | 글 | | 3月 | 同比增长(%) | 1-3月 | 同比增长(%) | | 社会消费品零售总额 | | | 10485729 | -9.9 | 34585593 | -3.3 | | 其中:限额以上批发和零售业、住宿和孵饮业网上零售额 | | | 4102255 | -13.8 | 12815218 | 0.5 | | 按消费形态分 | | | | | | | | 餐饮收入 | | | 1112777 | -3 ...