理财 2026 年展望：存款搬家、资产配置新 叙事 SAC 执证编号：S0080522070019 SFC CE Ref：BTC623 ziyu.wang@cicc.com.cn 证券研究报告 2025.12.10 王子瑜 分析员 李少萌 分析员 张帅帅 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080524060011 shaomeng.li@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080516060001 SFC CE Ref：BHQ055 shuaishuai.zhang@cicc.com.cn 纵轴：相对值（%） 90 100 110 120 130 2024-12 2025-03 2025-06 2025-09 2025-12 沪深300 中金银行 中金一级行业：金融 资料来源：Wind，彭博资讯，中金公司研究部 观点聚焦 投资建议 2025 年，理财行业在存款搬家、存续浮盈释放的背景下，实现了 超预期的增长。进入 2026 年，理财机构将拥有多资产布局、居民 储蓄率进一步下行的发展机遇，但同时也将面对平滑估值整改的 压力。本篇报告我们基于存款搬家、居民风偏、产品货架、监管导 向、资产配置等多维度进行拆解 ...

Core Viewpoint - The wealth management industry is expected to achieve unexpected growth in 2025, driven by deposit migration and the release of existing floating profits, while facing valuation adjustment pressures in 2026 [2] Group 1: Resident Risk Preference Insights - In 2026, residents are expected to show a slight increase in risk appetite, leading to a trend of more liquid deposits and asset management products [4] - The average decline in retail deposit rates in 2025 was approximately 30 basis points, with a significant slowdown in new fixed-term deposits, while demand for liquid deposits and wealth management products increased [4] - A total of 32 trillion yuan in fixed-term deposits will mature in 2026, with a repricing range of 70-170 basis points, indicating potential for further deposit migration [4][19] Group 2: Fund Flow from Excess Savings - From 2020 to 2025, an excess savings of 14.4 trillion yuan was generated, with a projected decrease in the savings rate to around 14.6% in 2025 [5][26] - A 1 percentage point decrease in the savings rate could release approximately 0.9 trillion yuan into wealth management, funds, insurance, and real estate [5][26] - The potential for an additional 2-4 trillion yuan in activated funds flowing into non-fixed deposit investments in 2026 is anticipated [5][26] Group 3: Wealth Management Asset Allocation Outlook - The wealth management industry is expected to see a growth rate of 8% in 2026, expanding by 2.6 trillion yuan to reach 36 trillion yuan, despite challenges from valuation adjustments [29] - Low-volatility fixed-income products will remain the core offering, while the growth of rights-based wealth management products is expected to accelerate [30][31] - The supply of long-term closed-end wealth management products is anticipated to increase due to the need for stable liabilities and the development of retirement financial products [36] Group 4: Market Impact and Fund Inflows - Wealth management institutions are projected to increase their equity asset allocation by 0.8 percentage points to 2.3% in 2026, potentially bringing nearly 1 trillion yuan in incremental funds to the capital market [6][39] - The demand for bond ETFs and rights-based funds is expected to grow rapidly, driven by external collaborations and the need for wealth management institutions to enhance returns [6][39] - The third phase of public fund fee reform may lead to increased allocation of bond ETFs by wealth management institutions, while short-term pure bond funds may face redemption pressures [6][39] Group 5: Supply-Side Reform Opportunities - The supply-side reform in wealth management is accelerating, with smaller banks exiting the wealth management business, creating opportunities for leading institutions to increase market share [49] - The market share of the top five wealth management institutions is expected to rise as regulatory tightening continues to limit the issuance of new wealth management licenses [49]

专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"！机构称A股迎全球资本涌入的大牛市 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 11月28日，2025分析师大会举行，摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强主题演讲《中国新篇章： 科技 与再平衡》。 邢自强表示，依托丰富的人才储备，中国处于AI创新前沿，中国大语言模型的性价比较高。AI既能增 益、也能替代劳动力，缓解人工智能对劳动力市场造成的扰动，还需更多政策支持。 邢自强认为，人形机器人5万亿美元全球市场大幕拉开，预测到2050年人形机器人累计应用规模将达到 10亿台，其中约30%来自中国。 附演讲PPT 美降温超预期,但持久性缓和仍难以实现 中美缓和超预期 然而在竞争性对抗格局下，中美缓和仍较为懿弱 | | 货量进口 如果大豆 | 2025 Jan | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一点 在的按照片 | - 10 2 2 10 10 2 2 4 10 10 2 2 10 | | | | | | 全身实质性描述明新芬太原资讯 | Sels | NULL | | | BOTACUL 201202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significance of the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 4000 points again after ten years, highlighting the differences in market conditions, valuation levels, and ownership structures compared to previous instances in 2007, 2008, and 2015 [6][13]. Valuation Levels - The current market valuation is compared using two indicators: the stock-bond yield ratio and the Buffett Indicator (total market capitalization/GDP). The stock-bond yield ratio for the CSI 300 is at 5.03, which is slightly below the median of the past decade, while the overall A-share market's ratio is at 2.59, also below its median [7][10]. - The Buffett Indicator for the A-share market is currently at 79%, which is lower than the 84% seen in December 2021 and significantly below the 95% during the peak of the 2015 bull market. This suggests that there is still potential for upward movement in the index if it approaches historical highs [10][11]. Ownership Structure - The ownership structure of the market has shifted significantly. Ten years ago, retail investors and speculative funds dominated, while now institutional investors hold over 40% of the free-floating market capitalization, with large-cap stocks primarily owned by major institutions [13]. - The article suggests that retail investors may take time to shift their funds from savings to the stock market, indicating a gradual transition rather than an immediate influx of capital [14][15]. Investment Strategies - The article emphasizes the importance of a measured approach to investing, suggesting that products like "fixed income plus" could see increased demand as retail investors gradually move their excess savings into the market. It estimates that if 20% of the anticipated 4.5-5 trillion yuan in excess savings enters the stock market, it could result in an additional 1 trillion yuan in investments [15][16]. - The article concludes that the current 4000-point mark may represent a slow bull market phase, encouraging investors to adopt strategies that align with their risk tolerance and investment beliefs rather than comparing themselves to others [16].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese economy, particularly the high household savings rate and low consumption levels, which are indicative of economic imbalance [1][8][30]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **High Household Savings Rate**: China's household savings rate stands at 35%, significantly higher than other major economies, reflecting structural issues in social security and economic uncertainties since 2018 [2][30]. 2. **Excess Savings Accumulation**: Over the past seven years, households have accumulated approximately 30 trillion RMB in excess savings, with 6-7 trillion RMB allocated to fixed deposits [2][12][37]. 3. **Need for Social Security Reform**: The report emphasizes that social security reform is crucial for releasing excess savings and achieving economic rebalancing, which is necessary to address the challenges of debt and deflation [8][21][30]. 4. **Three-Step Approach to Release Excess Savings**: - **Step 1**: Restore consumer confidence and risk appetite, particularly among high-income groups, to facilitate the transition of excess fixed deposits into equity markets [20][24]. - **Step 2**: Stabilize inflation expectations over the next 6-8 years to convert excess savings into consumption, which will further stimulate economic growth [20][26]. - **Step 3**: Implement comprehensive social security reforms to systematically lower the household savings rate [21][25]. 5. **Projected Economic Impact**: If reforms are effectively implemented, it is estimated that the release of excess savings could increase annual consumption growth by 1-1.4 percentage points over the next five years, potentially raising the consumption-to-GDP ratio by 1.3-1.6 percentage points by 2030 [3][26]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Structural Issues in Social Security**: The current social security system is fragmented and inadequate, leading to increased precautionary savings among households [9][30]. 2. **Impact of Economic Shocks**: Economic shocks since 2018, including trade tensions and the COVID-19 pandemic, have heightened the need for precautionary savings, further entrenching the high savings rate [10][35]. 3. **Potential for Consumption Growth**: Despite the high savings rate, there is significant potential for consumption growth if excess savings can be effectively mobilized [8][30]. 4. **International Comparisons**: The report draws parallels with Japan and the U.S. regarding how to manage excess savings and restore consumer confidence, highlighting the importance of timely policy responses [19][51]. Conclusion - The report outlines a comprehensive strategy for addressing the high savings rate in China through social security reform and economic policy adjustments, emphasizing the potential for increased consumption and economic rebalancing if these measures are successfully implemented [26][30].

Group 1: Market Insights - The combination of "low deposit rates + high investment returns" is insufficient to attract residents' deposits into the market from both relative and absolute return perspectives[2] - China's excess savings are approximately zero, contrasting with the large excess deposits seen in other markets[3] - The increase in savings rate and decrease in deposit proportion reflect a change in risk preference among residents[4] Group 2: A-Share Market Dynamics - The current A-share market rally is more akin to an "emotional bull market" driven by increased risk appetite rather than a substantial influx of resident deposits[4] - For A-shares to reach new highs, a recovery in earnings is necessary to solidify optimistic sentiment and transition into a "slow bull" market[4] - The expectation of a significant influx of resident deposits into the market lacks triggering conditions in the short term[4] Group 3: Financial Data Analysis - In July, resident deposits decreased by approximately 1.1 trillion yuan month-on-month, with a year-on-year reduction of about 780 billion yuan, raising market concerns[21] - The decrease in resident deposits was primarily due to a 92% contribution from a decline in demand deposits, while time deposits only decreased by 85 billion yuan[21] - In August, resident deposits increased by about 110 billion yuan, indicating a lack of large-scale market entry from deposits[22]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic research and its continuous evolution, highlighting the team's commitment to providing valuable independent research outcomes for 2025 and beyond [8][10]. Group 1: Macro Investment - The article outlines ten essential readings for macro investment, tracking major asset performances and changes in gold, RMB/USD exchange rates, and bond yields since the beginning of the year [8]. Group 2: Domestic Economy - Six key judgments regarding the domestic economy have been made, addressing issues such as tariff impacts, policy framework shifts, and new economic drivers, which differ from mainstream market expectations [8]. Group 3: 2025 Outlook - The team is focused on continuous improvement and adaptation in research methodologies, aiming to provide insights that are both practical and grounded in reality, with 2025 being a pivotal year for research upgrades [8]. Group 4: Classic Review - A discussion on Trump's "big cycle" and the re-evaluation of the dollar exchange rate is presented, analyzing global trade imbalances and the U.S. twin deficits, offering a comprehensive framework for understanding future trade conflicts and fiscal adjustments [10]. Group 5: Excess Savings - The report notes that excess savings among residents have surpassed 10 trillion, raising questions about who is contributing to this increase and how these savings might be released in the future [12]. Group 6: Interest Rate Trends - The article explores the implications of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, analyzing historical patterns of long-term U.S. Treasury yields and the factors influencing these trends [16]. Group 7: High-Frequency Tracking - Following the Fed's September meeting, global stock indices have generally continued to rise, indicating market reactions to monetary policy changes [18]. Group 8: Conference Insights - The article mentions various conference series that delve into topics such as the reversal of "rate cut trades" and new changes in economic dynamics, reflecting ongoing discussions in the macroeconomic landscape [22][24].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic research and its continuous evolution, highlighting the team's commitment to providing valuable independent research outcomes for 2025 and beyond [8][10]. Group 1: Macro Investment - The article outlines ten essential readings for macro investment, tracking major asset performances and macro trends since the beginning of the year, including changes in gold, RMB/USD exchange rates, and bond yields [8]. Group 2: Domestic Economy - Six key judgments regarding the domestic economy have been made, addressing areas such as tariff impacts, policy framework shifts, and new economic drivers, which differ from mainstream market expectations [8]. Group 3: 2025 Outlook - The year 2025 is positioned as a pivotal year for the research team, focusing on restructuring research frameworks and systematically presenting research findings, adhering to the principle of providing actionable insights [8]. Group 4: Classic Review - A review of Trump's "big cycle" and the re-evaluation of the dollar exchange rate is presented, discussing global trade imbalances and the U.S. twin deficits, along with potential solutions to these issues [10]. Group 5: Excess Savings - The article discusses the phenomenon of excess savings surpassing 10 trillion, questioning who is contributing to this increase and exploring potential release paths compared to international experiences [12]. Group 6: Interest Rate Trends - The article analyzes the implications of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, examining historical patterns of long-term U.S. Treasury yields and the associated market dynamics [16]. Group 7: High-Frequency Tracking - Following the Federal Reserve's September meeting, global stock indices have generally continued to rise, indicating a positive market response to the anticipated interest rate cuts [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the structure of excess savings in China, highlighting that lower savings rates and lower income residents are the primary contributors to this phenomenon [4][5][7]. Group 1: Structure of Excess Savings - Observations of excess savings should include all forms of savings, not just bank deposits, as total savings have increased by 52 trillion yuan over the past four years, exceeding historical trends by 11.1 trillion yuan [5][15]. - Regions with lower savings rates, such as Henan (+16.9 percentage points to 21.9%) and Sichuan (+22.6 percentage points to 14%), have seen significant increases in savings rates, while high savings rate areas like Beijing (29%) have seen limited growth [5][16]. - Areas with lower income levels, such as Shaanxi (34.9%), Shanxi (26.1%), and Liaoning (26.1%), exhibit higher savings rates, contrasting with high-income regions like Shanghai (16%) and Jiangsu (9.5%) [18][24]. Group 2: Formation of Excess Savings - The increase in excess savings is not primarily due to typical precautionary savings behavior; rather, it is linked to reduced housing expenditures and a temporary easing of early loan repayments [7][35]. - The annualized consumption of housing expenditures has decreased from 8 trillion yuan to 3.3 trillion yuan, contributing significantly to excess savings [35]. - The relationship between aging population pressures and excess savings is not straightforward, as both high and low elderly dependency ratios can coexist with high savings rates [37]. Group 3: Release Pathways of Excess Savings - Unlike the U.S. and EU, where excess savings are primarily directed towards consumption, China's excess savings are likely to flow into real estate rather than consumer spending due to deferred housing demand [10][43]. - The stabilization of the real estate market is crucial for the release of excess savings, necessitating policies that address both supply and demand sides [51][54]. - The "guarantee delivery" policy is highlighted as a potential key measure to stimulate investment, promote sales, stabilize housing prices, and release excess savings [54].

Group 1: Core Insights - The article discusses the structure of excess savings, indicating that regions with lower savings rates and lower incomes are the primary contributors to excess savings [1][2][3] - It highlights that the increase in excess savings is not primarily due to typical precautionary savings behavior but rather a reduction in housing expenditures [3][28] - The article emphasizes that the release of excess savings in China is likely to flow into real estate rather than consumption, contrasting with trends observed in the US and EU [5][36] Group 2: Savings Structure - The analysis of savings by region shows that areas with lower savings rates, such as Henan and Sichuan, have seen significant increases in their savings rates [9][12] - Income levels correlate with savings rates, where lower-income regions tend to have higher savings rates, while high-income areas like Shanghai and Jiangsu exhibit lower savings rates [12][30] - The age structure of savers indicates that excess savings are not dominated by older populations, as both high and low aging rate regions show similar increases in savings rates [16][30] Group 3: Formation of Excess Savings - The article argues that the increase in excess savings is more influenced by the adjustment in the real estate market rather than a direct response to income declines or consumption reductions [21][28] - It notes that the reduction in housing expenditures has significantly contributed to the increase in excess savings, with annualized consumption from housing dropping from 8 trillion to 3.3 trillion [28][36] - The impact of social security and aging pressures on savings rates is deemed minimal, as both high and low dependency ratio regions exhibit excess savings [30] Group 4: Release Pathways of Excess Savings - The article posits that the stabilization of the real estate market is crucial for the release of excess savings, requiring policies that address both supply and demand sides [40][44] - It suggests that the "保交楼" (ensure delivery of buildings) policy could play a significant role in stabilizing the market and facilitating the release of excess savings [48] - The current environment shows a significant gap in funding for unsold properties, which could be addressed through targeted fiscal policies to stimulate investment and sales [48]