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有色套利早报-20250814
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 03:11
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Report's Core View - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on August 14, 2025. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 79,510 (domestic) and 9,763 (LME) with a ratio of 8.11; March price is 79,380 (domestic) and 9,842 (LME) with a ratio of 8.05. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.16, and the profit is - 39.06. Spot export profit is 42.08 [1]. - **Zinc**: Spot price is 22,560 (domestic) and 2,840 (LME) with a ratio of 7.95; March price is 22,640 (domestic) and 2,841 (LME) with a ratio of 5.94. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.65, and the profit is - 1,994.05 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 20,760 (domestic) and 2,624 (LME) with a ratio of 7.91; March price is 20,765 (domestic) and 2,629 (LME) with a ratio of 7.91. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.48, and the profit is - 1,492.93 [1]. - **Nickel**: Spot price is 121,750 (domestic) and 15,099 (LME) with a ratio of 8.06. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.25, and the profit is - 1,531.68 [1]. - **Lead**: Spot price is 16,725 (domestic) and 1,974 (LME) with a ratio of 8.48; March price is 16,940 (domestic) and 2,017 (LME) with a ratio of 11.21. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.85, and the profit is - 719.66 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of next - month - spot, March - spot, April - spot, and May - spot are 370, 370, 390, and 410 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 497, 892, 1296, and 1700 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads of next - month - spot, March - spot, April - spot, and May - spot are 0, 40, 40, and 25 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 216, 338, 460, and 582 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads of next - month - spot, March - spot, April - spot, and May - spot are 35, 10, - 35, and - 70 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 215, 331, 446, and 562 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads of next - month - spot, March - spot, April - spot, and May - spot are 30, 40, 60, and 85 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 210, 315, 421, and 526 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads of next - month - spot, March - spot, April - spot, and May - spot are - 20, 110, 310, and 600 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is 1250, and the theoretical spread is 5593 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of current - month contract - spot and next - month contract - spot are - 430 and - 60 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 23 and 517 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads of current - month contract - spot and next - month contract - spot are 40 and 40 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 80 and 211 (also mentioned 78 and 207) [4][5]. - **Lead**: The spreads of current - month contract - spot and next - month contract - spot are 175 and 205 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 105 and 217 [4]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - For cross - variety ratios on August 14, 2025: Copper/Zinc (Shanghai "continuous three") is 3.51, Copper/Aluminum is 3.82, Copper/Lead is 4.69, Aluminum/Zinc is 0.92, Aluminum/Lead is 1.23, Lead/Zinc is 0.75; LME (continuous three) ratios are 3.47, 3.75, 4.93, 0.92, 1.32, and 0.70 respectively [5].
有色套利早报-20250813
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 03:15
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report's Core View The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on August 13, 2025, which helps investors understand the current price relationships and potential arbitrage opportunities in the non - ferrous metals market [1][4][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On August 13, 2025, the domestic spot price was 79,160, the LME price was 9,681, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.17 with a profit of 84.82. The March price had a ratio of 8.09 [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,510, the LME price was 2,823, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.66 with a profit of - 1927.11. The March price ratio was 5.99 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,640, the LME price was 2,600, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.49 with a profit of - 1445.13. The March price ratio was 7.94 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 121,600, the LME price was 15,079, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.25 with a profit of - 2046.03 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,775, the LME price was 1,966, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.86 with a profit of - 633.39. The March price ratio was 11.25 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On August 13, 2025, the spreads between the next month, March, April, and May and the spot month were 0, 60, 20, and 10 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 497, 892, 1296, and 1700 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 35, 55, 55, and 35 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 216, 338, 460, and 582 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 15, - 15, - 60, and - 80 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 330, 446, and 561 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 80, 90, 105, and 135 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 314, 420, and 525 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads were 540, 670, 840, and 1120 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 1330, and the theoretical spread was 5601 [4]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking On August 13, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.49, 3.82, 4.67, 0.91, 1.22, and 0.75 respectively, and in London (three - continuous) were 3.46, 3.76, 4.88, 0.92, 1.30, and 0.71 respectively [5].
有色套利早报-20250812
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 00:44
铅:跨市套利跟踪 2025/08/12 有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/08/12 铜:跨市套利跟踪 2025/08/12 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 79140 9676 8.12 三月 79050 9759 8.10 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.18 -117.15 现货出口 -247.43 锌:跨市套利跟踪 2025/08/12 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22530 2836 7.94 三月 22610 2840 5.94 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.66 -2036.17 铝:跨市套利跟踪 2025/08/12 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20630 2609 7.91 三月 20690 2617 7.89 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.50 -1542.06 镍:跨市套利跟踪 2025/08/12 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 120900 15028 8.05 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.26 -1921.73 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯,我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、 ...
有色套利早报-20250807
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 02:26
有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/08/07 铜:跨市套利跟踪 2025/08/07 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 78325 9602 8.19 三月 78290 9665 8.10 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.17 -79.58 现货出口 -182.22 锌:跨市套利跟踪 2025/08/07 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22330 2761 8.09 三月 22370 2771 6.08 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.67 -1602.01 铝:跨市套利跟踪 2025/08/07 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20630 2576 8.01 三月 20605 2575 8.01 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.49 -1251.83 镍:跨市套利跟踪 2025/08/07 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 120100 14903 8.06 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.25 -1667.45 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 16700 1952 8.57 三月 16850 1988 11.25 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.86 -567.51 跨期套利跟踪 2025/08/0 ...
养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20250801
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 10:18
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Report's Core View - **Soybean Oil**: The improvement of weather in the main soybean - producing areas in the US has led to a decline in US soybeans, dragging down domestic beans. There is no obvious progress in soybean imports from the Sino - US economic and trade talks. The export of about one million tons of soybean oil from China, fewer oilseed purchases in the fourth quarter, and an increase in direct imports of protein meal are expected to converge the oil mill's profit, which is beneficial to the price of oils. It is recommended to buy on dips for the soybean oil 2601 contract. Support is at 8000 - 8030 yuan/ton, and resistance is at 8400 - 8450 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Since July, the procurement and arrival of rapeseed in China have decreased, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory has declined from its high. However, it is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years. With fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter, there is an expectation of future inventory reduction. The import profit of new - crop rapeseed is okay, but the uncertainty of China - Canada trade relations remains. It is advisable to trade within a range, buy on dips, and exit long positions at high levels. Support is at 9300 - 9330, and resistance is at 9683 - 9790 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: High - frequency data shows good production of Malaysian palm oil but weak export demand, increasing the inventory pressure in July. The willingness of the origin to support prices has weakened, improving the domestic import profit and increasing domestic inventory. The upward momentum of the futures price has weakened, with a short - term need for shock adjustment. Indonesia's palm oil production is lower than expected, and its inventory is at a low level. The US biodiesel policy is beneficial to the long - term demand for US soybean oil. From the perspective of the international soybean - palm oil price difference, palm oil is cost - effective, and there is restocking demand from India and China. There is support below the futures price. Indonesia is preparing for the B50 biodiesel test, potentially beneficial to the long - term price. It is recommended to buy on dips. Support is at 8704 - 8796, and resistance is at 9480 - 9490 [4]. - **Soybean No. 2 and Soybean Meal**: There is no obvious progress in soybean imports from the Sino - US economic and trade talks. The improvement of the good - rate of US soybeans and favorable weather in the main producing areas have led to a bottom - building of CBOT soybean futures prices. The increase in imports of low - priced soybean meal from Argentina and the promotion of soybean meal reduction and substitution in China have led to a continuous decline in soybean meal prices. It is recommended to wait and see for now. The support for the main soybean meal contract is at 2930 - 2950 yuan/ton, and the resistance is at 3080 - 3100 yuan/ton. The soybean No. 2 main 09 contract is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with resistance at 3750 - 3800 and support at 3550 - 3560 yuan/ton [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Rapeseed meal shows a situation of both weak supply and demand. The cost - effectiveness of rapeseed meal is poor, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the third quarter. It is recommended to buy on dips. Support is at 2600 - 2621, and resistance is at 2791 - 2855 [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The external market is under pressure from the harvest in South America and the expected increase in US corn planting area. The domestic market is in a game between the release of old - crop corn and tight supply in some areas. It is recommended to reduce short positions on dips. The support for the corn 09 contract is at 2250 - 2260, and the resistance is at 2430 - 2450. For the corn starch 09 contract, the support is at 2600 - 2620, and the resistance is at 2830 - 2840 [5]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The gradual listing of new soybeans has increased supply, suppressing domestic soybean prices. It is recommended to wait and see for the main soybean No. 1 contract. The resistance for the 09 contract is at 4250 - 4300 yuan/ton, and the support is at 4000 - 4030 yuan/ton [6]. - **Peanut**: The low carry - over inventory of old - crop peanuts, the impact of the civil unrest in Sudan and the delay of port opening in Senegal on imports, and the high - level planting area and expected increase in yield of new - crop peanuts have different impacts on different contracts. It is recommended to take partial profit on short positions near the support level. The support for the 10 contract is at 8004 - 8020, and the resistance is at 8392 - 8398 [6]. - **Live Pig**: The futures price of live pigs is near - strong and far - weak. The spot price is likely to rise seasonally in August. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies for the 09 contract and wait for an opportunity to buy the 2511 contract on dips after the market cools down and the spot price rises [7]. - **Egg**: The egg 08 futures price has fallen back to the spot price, and the 09 contract has broken through the range. It is recommended to be cautious about short - selling, pay attention to the positive spread between September and January, and aggressive investors can buy the 09 contract on dips. The reference range is 3500 - 3800 points [8]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Part One: Sector Strategy Recommendations a. Market Analysis - **Oilseeds**: Soybean No. 1 09 is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see; Soybean No. 2 09 is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see; Peanut 10 is expected to be weakly bearish, and it is recommended to take partial profit on short positions [11]. - **Oils**: Soybean oil 01 is expected to be strongly bullish, and it is recommended to buy on dips; Rapeseed oil 09 is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to buy on dips; Palm 09 is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and it is recommended to buy on dips [11]. - **Protein**: Soybean meal 09 is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see; Rapeseed meal 09 is expected to be strongly bullish, and it is recommended to buy on dips [11]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn 09 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and it is recommended to reduce short positions on dips; Corn starch 09 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and it is recommended to reduce short positions on dips [11]. - **Livestock**: Live pig 09 is expected to rebound, and it is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies; Egg 09 is expected to find the bottom, and it is recommended to buy on dips [11]. b. Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - month Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see for most varieties, except for the positive spread for soybean meal 11 - 1 and the positive spread for live pig 9 - 1 and egg 9 - 1 [12][13]. - **Inter - commodity Arbitrage**: For oils, it is recommended to be bearish on 09 soybean oil - palm oil, bullish on 09 rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and wait and see for 09 rapeseed oil - palm oil; For protein, 09 soybean meal - rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate at a low level; For the oil - meal ratio, it is recommended to go long on the 09 soybean oil - meal ratio and wait and see for the 09 rapeseed oil - meal ratio; For energy and by - products, it is recommended to wait and see for 09 starch - corn [13]. c. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies There are data on spot prices, price changes, and basis changes for various varieties, but no specific strategies are mentioned other than the data presentation [14]. Part Two: Key Data Tracking Tables a. Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: There are data on the import cost of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping dates [16]. - **Weekly Data**: There are data on the inventory and operating rate of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [18]. b. Feed - **Daily Data**: There are data on the import cost of corn from different countries and different months [18]. - **Weekly Data**: There are data on the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [19]. c. Livestock - There are daily and weekly data on live pigs and eggs, including spot prices, production, consumption, and profit - related data [20][21][22][23][24]. Part Three: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock End (Live Pigs and Eggs)**: There are charts showing the closing price of the main live pig contract, the closing price of the main egg contract, spot prices, and other related data [25][28][29][34]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: There are charts showing the production, export, inventory, and other data of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [37][47][51]. - **Feed End**: There are charts showing the inventory, consumption, and profit - related data of corn, corn starch, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal [55][57][59]. Part Four: Options Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock, and Oils There are charts showing the historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [71][72]. Part Five: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils There are charts showing the warehouse receipt situation of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs [74][76][79].
新能源及有色金属日报:整体情绪向下铝价表现抗跌-20250731
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 05:29
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Neutral [10] - Alumina: Neutral [10] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [10] 2. Core Viewpoints - Despite a significant decline in market sentiment this week, aluminum prices remained relatively resilient. During the off - season, the spot market's premium and discount were weak. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's growth - stabilization plan has no impact on the electrolytic aluminum supply side, but potential policy support for the consumption side should be monitored. Although social inventories are accumulating during the off - season, the expected increase is limited due to supply constraints. There is a need to be vigilant about the squeeze - out risk in the 08 contract. The post - decline correction after the anti - involution sentiment fades is an opportunity for long - term buying hedging [6]. - There are still issues with alumina warehouse receipts. The supply side continues to resume production due to profit incentives, and the current and expected surplus situation remains unchanged, with the social inventory accumulation rate increasing. The short - term surplus may be in transit and form warehouse receipts later, while the spot market remains in a tight - balance state [7][8]. - Aluminum alloy is in the off - season. The futures price fluctuates with aluminum prices. The supply of scrap and raw aluminum remains tight, and the cost side supports prices. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [9]. 3. Key Data Summary Aluminum Spot - On July 30, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,670 yuan/ton, with a change of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The East China aluminum spot premium and discount was - 10 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 20,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium and discount was - 180 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,660 yuan/ton, a change of 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium and discount was - 20 yuan/ton, a change of - 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On July 30, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20,585 yuan/ton, closed at 20,625 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The highest price was 20,675 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 20,570 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 125,168 lots, and the position was 261,363 lots [2]. Inventory - As of July 30, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 533,000 tons, a change of 2.3 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 51,217 tons, a change of - 1,857 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 460,350 tons, a change of 4,250 tons from the previous trading day. The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 43,200 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 63,600 tons [2][4]. Alumina Spot Price - On July 30, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,250 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,230 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,300 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,315 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 380 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On July 30, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,349 yuan/ton, closed at 3,326 yuan/ton, a change of 54 yuan/ton (1.65%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 3,406 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 3,286 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 567,566 lots, and the position was 148,574 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On July 30, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,100 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,300 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 19,600 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost of aluminum alloy was 20,078 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 278 yuan/ton [5]. 4. Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a neutral stance on aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy [10]. - Arbitrage: Conduct long - short arbitrage on Shanghai aluminum and go long on AD11 while shorting AL11 [10].
有色套利早报-20250730
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 04:05
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on July 30, 2025, to help investors find potential arbitrage opportunities [1][4][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 79,030 (domestic) and 9,706 (LME), with a ratio of 8.15; March price is 78,860 (domestic) and 9,758 (LME), ratio 8.09. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.17, profit is - 398.80 [1]. - **Zinc**: Spot price is 22,580 (domestic) and 2,804 (LME), ratio 8.05; March price is 22,675 (domestic) and 2,808 (LME), ratio 6.03. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.65, profit is - 1,685.62 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 20,620 (domestic) and 2,616 (LME), ratio 7.88; March price is 20,590 (domestic) and 2,619 (LME), ratio 7.86. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.51, profit is - 1,652.64 [1]. - **Nickel**: Spot price is 120,300 (domestic) and 15,004 (LME), ratio 8.02. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.25, profit is - 1,795.71 [1]. - **Lead**: Spot price is 16,750 (domestic) and 1,984 (LME), ratio 8.46; March price is 16,915 (domestic) and 2,016 (LME), ratio 11.22. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.85, profit is - 772.80 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, May and the spot - month are - 160, - 140, - 180, - 240 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 497, 892, 1296, 1700 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads are 40, 60, 40, - 10, and the theoretical spreads are 216, 338, 460, 582 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads are - 40, - 55, - 110, - 165, and the theoretical spreads are 214, 329, 445, 560 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads are 20, 35, 55, 110, and the theoretical spreads are 209, 315, 420, 526 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads are 300, 430, 610, 870 [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is 1060, theoretical spread is 5526 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts to the spot are - 10 and - 170, and the theoretical spreads are 296 and 710 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads are 35 and 75, and the theoretical spreads are 146 and 278 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads are 130 and 150, and the theoretical spreads are 151 and 263 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - **Domestic (Three - Consecutive Contracts)**: Copper/zinc is 3.48, copper/aluminum is 3.83, copper/lead is 4.66, aluminum/zinc is 0.91, aluminum/lead is 1.22, lead/zinc is 0.75 [5]. - **LME (Three - Consecutive Contracts)**: Copper/zinc is 3.49, copper/aluminum is 3.76, copper/lead is 4.86, aluminum/zinc is 0.93, aluminum/lead is 1.29, lead/zinc is 0.72 [5].
新能源及有色金属日报:氧化铝盘面波动加剧,现货趋于降温-20250730
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 02:51
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminium: Neutral [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminium alloy: Neutral [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - Aluminium prices lack upward elasticity due to the consumption off - season and inventory accumulation. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's plan has no impact on the supply side, but policy support for the consumption side should be monitored. There is a risk of a squeeze in the 08 contract, and the long - term logic is supply constraints and expected consumption growth [6]. - The alumina supply side continues to resume production due to profit incentives, with an oversupply situation and expectations remaining unchanged. The inventory accumulation speed is increasing. There are still problems with the warehouse receipts, and the registration speed of warehouse receipts needs further observation. The long - term oversupply expectation remains, and the spot market is becoming more cautious [6][7]. - Aluminium alloy is in the consumption off - season, with the price following the aluminium price. The supply of scrap and primary aluminium is tight, and the cost side supports the price. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Important Data Aluminium Spot - East China A00 aluminium price is 20,620 yuan/ton, a change of - 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium is 0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. - Central China A00 aluminium price is 20,440 yuan/ton, and the spot premium has changed by 10 yuan/ton to - 180 yuan/ton. - Foshan A00 aluminium price is 20,600 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium has changed by - 10 yuan/ton to - 15 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminium Futures - On July 29, 2025, the main SHFE aluminium contract opened at 20,635 yuan/ton, closed at 20,605 yuan/ton, a change of - 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a high of 20,695 yuan/ton and a low of 20,570 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 119,985 lots, and the position was 272,707 lots [2]. Inventory - As of July 29, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminium ingots was 533,000 tons, a change of 2.3 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 53,074 tons, a change of - 524 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminium inventory was 456,100 tons, a change of 1,825 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On July 29, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,220 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,300 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,315 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 380 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On July 29, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 3,259 yuan/ton, closed at 3,307 yuan/ton, a change of 33 yuan/ton (1.01%) from the previous trading day's closing price, with a high of 3,311 yuan/ton and a low of 3,230 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 472,199 lots, and the position was 158,124 lots [2]. Aluminium Alloy Price - On July 29, 2025, the Baotai purchase price of civil primary aluminium was 15,100 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminium was 15,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. Aluminium Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminium alloy was 43,200 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 63,600 tons [4]. Aluminium Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,078 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 278 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminium - Aluminium prices lack upward momentum due to the consumption off - season and inventory accumulation. There is a risk of a squeeze in the 08 contract. The long - term logic is supply constraints and expected consumption growth [6]. Alumina - The supply side continues to resume production, with an oversupply situation and expectations remaining unchanged. There are problems with warehouse receipts, and the registration speed of warehouse receipts needs further observation. The long - term oversupply expectation remains, and the spot market is becoming more cautious [6][7]. Aluminium Alloy - Aluminium alloy is in the consumption off - season, with the price following the aluminium price. The supply of scrap and primary aluminium is tight, and the cost side supports the price. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [8]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral for aluminium, alumina, and aluminium alloy. - Arbitrage: SHFE aluminium positive spread and long AD11 short AL11 [9].
有色套利早报-20250725
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 00:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on July 25, 2025 [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On July 25, 2025, the domestic spot price was 79,790, the LME price was 9,897, and the ratio was 8.05; the domestic March price was 79,920, the LME price was 9,947, and the ratio was 8.01. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.14, with a profit of - 630.69, and the profit for spot export was 402.52 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,870, the LME price was 2,875, and the ratio was 7.95; the domestic March price was 23,015, the LME price was 2,876, and the ratio was 5.86. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.62, with a profit of - 1,901.83 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot and March prices were both 20,730, the LME spot price was 2,648, the March price was 2,646, and the ratio was 7.82. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.48, with a profit of - 1,741.60 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 122,850, the LME price was 15,403, and the ratio was 7.98. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.22, with a profit of - 2,151.35 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,650, the LME price was 2,011, and the ratio was 8.30; the domestic March price was 16,935, the LME price was 2,036, and the ratio was 11.26. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.81, with a profit of - 1,022.60 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On July 25, 2025, the spreads of the next - month, March, April, and May contracts relative to the spot month were 370, 400, 360, and 270 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 500, 897, 1304, and 1710 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 95, 95, 45, and 0 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 218, 341, 465, and 588 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 55, - 85, - 155, and - 210 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 331, 447, and 563 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 80, 125, 145, and 150 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 314, 419, and 524 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 1140, 1300, 1490, and 1720 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 240, and the theoretical spread was 5663 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were - 240 and 130 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 337 and 832 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 50 and 145 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 180 and 313 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 160 and 240 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 174 and 285 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On July 25, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (triple - continuous) were 3.47, 3.86, 4.72, 0.90, 1.22, and 0.74 respectively; in London (triple - continuous), they were 3.47, 3.73, 4.88, 0.93, 1.31, and 0.71 respectively [5]
【金十期货热图】甲醇价格与MTO利润有何关联?如何用MTO利润指标来指导交易?一图了解。
news flash· 2025-07-24 12:16
Core Viewpoint - The MTO (Methanol to Olefins) profit is significantly influenced by various factors including methanol prices, demand for olefin products, policies, and seasonal patterns, with a strong negative correlation to methanol prices [4][7][8]. Group 1: MTO Profit Calculation and Influencing Factors - MTO profit is calculated based on the cost structure, where 70-80% of costs are attributed to energy consumption and raw materials, with methanol prices being a critical component [5][7]. - The cost of producing 1 ton of polypropylene (PP) requires 3 tons of methanol, and catalyst costs also contribute to overall expenses [5]. - Key factors affecting MTO profit include: 1. Methanol prices, which are influenced by coal and natural gas prices, with a significant portion of methanol in China being coal-derived [7]. 2. Demand for olefin products, particularly from the packaging and automotive sectors, which can drive PP prices [8]. 3. Policies and environmental regulations, such as carbon taxes and subsidies for green methanol projects, which can impact production costs and profitability [8]. 4. Seasonal patterns, where winter months typically see higher methanol prices and reduced MTO profits, while summer months may lead to increased profits due to lower methanol prices and higher demand [9]. Group 2: Production Strategies and Market Dynamics - Companies may adopt different production strategies based on MTO profit levels, such as increasing raw material procurement during high-profit periods and reducing operational rates during negative profit periods [10]. - Seasonal trading strategies can be employed by investors, such as going long on profits during summer months and shorting during winter months, reflecting the cyclical nature of MTO profitability [10].