铅：跨市套利跟踪 2026/02/12 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 16625 1930 8.59 三月 16755 1978 12.43 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.50 165.28 跨期套利跟踪 2026/02/12 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 1030 1310 1480 1500 理论价差 608 1114 1628 2143 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 185 240 280 315 理论价差 225 356 487 618 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 225 295 360 405 理论价差 228 357 487 616 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 100 115 165 215 理论价差 208 312 417 521 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 6270 6570 6910 6960 锡 5-1 价差 1500 理论价差 8068 期现套利跟踪 2026/02/12 铜 当月合约-现货 次月合 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures on February 11, 2026, mainly including basis, inter - period and inter - variety spreads [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thermal Coal - The basis data of thermal coal on different dates from February 4 to February 10, 2026 are presented, such as the basis on February 10 being - 102.4 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: Basis data of fuel oil, crude oil, asphalt and INE crude oil on different dates from February 4 to February 10, 2026 are provided, along with their price ratios [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - Basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP on different dates from February 4 to February 10, 2026 [9]. - Inter - period spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol, including 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads [10]. - Inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol on different dates from February 4 to February 10, 2026 [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal on different dates from February 4 to February 10, 2026, such as the basis of rebar on February 10 being 158.0 yuan/ton [20]. - Inter - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, including 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month spreads [19]. - Inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil on different dates from February 4 to February 10, 2026 [19]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on different dates from February 4 to February 10, 2026, such as the basis of copper on February 10 being 10 yuan/ton [28]. - **London Market**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on February 10, 2026 [33]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn on different dates from February 4 to February 10, 2026, such as the basis of soybeans No.1 on February 10 being - 339 yuan/ton [38]. - Inter - period spreads of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton, including 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads [38]. - Inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch on February 10, 2026 [38]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 on different dates from February 4 to February 10, 2026, such as the basis of CSI 300 on February 10 being 25.91 [50]. - Inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including next - month - current - month and next - quarter - current - quarter spreads [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Report Core View - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and lead on February 10, 2026 [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On February 10, 2026, the domestic spot price was 101510, the LME price was 12992, and the ratio was 7.67; the three - month domestic price was 102050, the LME price was 13070, and the ratio was 7.80. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 7.86, with a profit of - 606.22, and the profit for spot export was - 266.73 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 24700, the LME price was 3336, and the ratio was 7.40; the three - month domestic price was 24565, the LME price was 3360, and the ratio was 4.94. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.25, with a profit of - 2829.45 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 23400, the LME price was 3062, and the ratio was 7.64; the three - month domestic price was 23620, the LME price was 3088, and the ratio was 7.66. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.33, with a profit of - 2097.21 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 133550, the LME price was 17055, and the ratio was 7.83. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.00, with a profit of - 2276.34 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16425, the LME price was 1909, and the ratio was 8.60; the three - month domestic price was 16605, the LME price was 1959, and the ratio was 12.61. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.52, with a profit of 160.56 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were 2030, 2240, 2430, and 2360 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 601, 1100, 1608, and 2116 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 85, 110, 150, and 155 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 225, 357, 488, and 619 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 255, 335, 405, and 470 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 227, 356, 484, and 613 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 95, 115, 170, and 200 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 207, 311, 414, and 518 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 3290, 3530, 3790, and 3770 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The spread for 5 - 1 was - 2650, and the theoretical spread was 7925 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 1720 and 310 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were - 64 and 791 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 245 and - 160 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 71 and 214 (also mentioned as 82 and 258) respectively [4][5] - **Lead**: The spreads were 65 and 160 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 104 and 214 respectively [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On February 10, 2026, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for the Shanghai (three - continuous) contracts were 4.15, 4.32, 6.15, 0.96, 1.42, and 0.68 respectively, and for the London (three - continuous) contracts were 3.90, 4.22, 6.69, 0.93, 1.59, and 0.58 respectively [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and lead on February 4, 2026 [1][4][7] Cross - market Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spot price: domestic 101250, LME 13282, ratio 7.33; March price: domestic 104780, LME 13351, ratio 7.62; equilibrium ratio for spot import 7.87, profit - 650.94; profit for spot export 2095.94 [1] Zinc - Spot price: domestic 25070, LME 3321, ratio 7.55; March price: domestic 25010, LME 3347, ratio 4.97; equilibrium ratio for spot import 8.27, profit - 2405.07 [1] Aluminum - Spot price: domestic 23290, LME 3069, ratio 7.59; March price: domestic 23890, LME 3092, ratio 7.63; equilibrium ratio for spot import 8.35, profit - 2324.16 [1] Nickel - Spot price: domestic 132700, LME 17037, ratio 7.79; equilibrium ratio for spot import 8.03, profit - 1126.11 [1] Lead - Spot price: domestic 16425, LME 1921, ratio 8.56; March price: domestic 16700, LME 1973, ratio 12.72; equilibrium ratio for spot import 8.53, profit 69.19 [3] Cross - period Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spread between next month and spot month 6810, between March and spot month 7090, between April and spot month 7140, between May and spot month 7190; theoretical spreads are 590, 1079, 1576, 2074 respectively [4] Zinc - Spread between next month and spot month 535, between March and spot month 585, between April and spot month 620, between May and spot month 590; theoretical spreads are 225, 356, 487, 619 respectively [4] Aluminum - Spread between next month and spot month 535, between March and spot month 615, between April and spot month 670, between May and spot month 720; theoretical spreads are 227, 356, 484, 613 respectively [4] Lead - Spread between next month and spot month 55, between March and spot month 115, between April and spot month 190, between May and spot month 265; theoretical spreads are 208, 312, 416, 520 respectively [4] Nickel - Spread between next month and spot month 5330, between March and spot month 5630, between April and spot month 5930, between May and spot month 5980 [4] Tin - Spread between 5 - 1 is - 770, theoretical spread is 7876 [4] Copper (Continuous Contracts) - Spread between current month contract and spot - 3620, between next month contract and spot 3190; theoretical spreads are - 223, 1328 respectively [4] Zinc (Continuous Contracts) - Spread between current month contract and spot - 645, between next month contract and spot - 110; theoretical spreads are 108, 253 (or 124, 340) respectively [4][5] Lead (Continuous Contracts) - Spread between current month contract and spot 160, between next month contract and spot 215; theoretical spreads are 140, 250 respectively [5] Cross - variety Arbitrage Tracking - Copper/zinc: Shanghai (three - continuous) 4.19, London (three - continuous) 4.04; Copper/aluminum: Shanghai 4.39, London 4.34; Copper/lead: Shanghai 6.27, London 6.86; Aluminum/zinc: Shanghai 0.96, London 0.93; Aluminum/lead: Shanghai 1.43, London 1.58; Lead/zinc: Shanghai 0.67, London 0.59 [7]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyester Data Weekly Report [1] - Author: He Xiaoqin (Senior Analyst), Qian Jiayin (Contact) from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Date: February 1, 2026 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Views - In the first half of 2026, PX is expected to be the strongest variety in the polyester industry chain [15] - Before the Spring Festival, the high - level volatility of PX increases, with limited downside space and a reverse spread of monthly differences. The PTA unilateral trend is strong before the holiday, with a 5 - 9 monthly difference reverse spread. MEG has a clear lower - level support, with limited upside rebound space [3][4][5] Summary by Directory PX Valuation and Profit - PX monthly spread weakens, with PX internal and external markets generally rising first and then falling, and PXN回调. The gasoline inventory continues to rise, the aromatics blending oil demand is weak, and the aromatics blending oil economy weakens [22][23][28] - The PX - MX spread reached a high of 170 US dollars/ton during the week, and the Asian MX blending oil economy decreased significantly. The toluene disproportionation unit profit improved significantly [41][50] Supply and Demand, and Inventory - Domestic production: The domestic production start - up rate is at a historical high. The 800,000 - ton PX unit of Sinochem Quanzhou restarted, and the domestic unit start - up rate rose to 89.2%. The December PX domestic production was 3.46 million tons [56][61] - Import: In December, the import volume was 930,000 tons. The Asian PX unit start - up rate this week was 81.2% (+0.2%). In November, PX imports from South Korea and Japan continued to increase, while those from Brunei decreased [63] - Inventory: In December, the Longzhong PX inventory was 4.45 million tons (+6) [89] PTA Valuation and Profit - The basis and monthly spread are weak. The PTA price has risen sharply, the basis has increased slightly, and the 5 - 9 monthly spread is weak due to increased supply pressure [96][97][101] - The PTA processing fee has been significantly repaired. The PTA spot processing fee has rebounded to 398 yuan/ton, and the polyester link profit is compressed by the upstream [105][106] Supply and Demand, and Inventory - Supply: The start - up rate remains at 76.6% without significant change. The 1 - million - ton unit of Sichuan Energy Investment recently restarted, the 2.5 - million - ton unit of Dushan Energy Phase II is expected to be overhauled at the end of January, and the 1.25 - million - ton unit of Zhuhai Ineos is shut down for maintenance [108] - Demand: The terminal orders of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving show differentiation. Export orders are good, but some re - flow orders have not increased significantly. Enterprises are cautious about pre - holiday stockpiling, and most enterprises have taken holidays [4] - Inventory: The total inventory is at a low level, and the inventory accumulation intensity will be relatively large in February [128] MEG Valuation and Profit - The unilateral price is in a volatile market. The relative valuation continues to decline, and Satellite Petrochemical will switch to produce plastics in February [148][154] - The profit of coal - based units is - 110 yuan/ton (+20). Oil - based units continue to be in a loss pattern, with the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol at - 1217 yuan/ton (-160), the profit of externally purchased ethylene - based ethylene glycol at - 187 yuan/ton (+30), the MTO profit at - 1601 (+20), and the profit of ethane cracking - based ethylene glycol at 366 (+15) [157] Supply and Demand, and Inventory - Supply: The start - up rate of units has risen to 74.4% (+1.3%). The 500,000 - ton unit of Sinochem Quanzhou and the 500,000 - ton unit of Ningbo Fude have restarted. From January to February, the ethylene glycol import volume will remain at a high level, with a monthly average of over 700,000 tons [166] - Inventory: Attention should be paid to the changes in units in Saudi Arabia and Taiwan. The port inventory data in East China is provided [170][176] Polyester Segment Start - up - The polyester start - up rate is 84.2% (-1.5%). Multiple sets of units have been overhauled, restarted, and some unit loads have been adjusted. The comprehensive polyester load has decreased. It is expected to be 88% in January, 80.5% in February, and 91% in March [182][185] Inventory - The inventory has increased slightly, but the pressure is not great [190][192] Export - From January to December, the total polyester export volume was 14.61 million tons, +13.5%. The total export volume of polyester filament was 4.29 million tons, +10.6%; the total export volume of polyester bottle chips was 6.46 million tons, +10.1%; the total export volume of polyester chips was 1.34 million tons, +21%; the total export volume of polyester staple fiber was 1.7 million tons, +28.2%; the total export volume of polyester film was 0.82 million tons, +15.5% [193] Profit - The losses of filament factories have expanded, while the profits of staple fiber and bottle chips are acceptable [195] Terminal: Weaving, Textile and Apparel Start - up - The start - up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 34% (-15%), and the start - up rate of texturing machines is 53% (-13%). Downstream texturing and weaving enterprises have entered the Spring Festival holiday season [217][219] Orders - Downstream orders are seasonally weak overall, but export orders are eye - catching, especially orders from the United States. Some enterprises reported that recent US clothing orders increased by 14% year - on - year, and Southeast Asian orders have also returned, but the overall order volume has not increased significantly [219] Inventory - The finished product inventory has decreased, and the grey fabric inventory has accumulated again. Weaving enterprises have stocked raw materials until the end of January [220][221] Retail and Export - China's textile and clothing retail: From January to December, it was 135.97 billion yuan, +3.5% [224] - China's textile and clothing export: From January to December, the cumulative export volume was 137.8 billion US dollars, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [230] - Overseas textile and clothing retail: The US and European clothing retail data have risen strongly. In October, US retail was 19.3 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year increase of 9.8%. In 2025 from January to October, US clothing retail was 180 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. In December, UK retail was 6.766 billion pounds, with a year - on - year increase of 5.8%. From January to December, UK retail was 50.6 billion pounds, with a year - on - year increase of 6.23% [234][238] - Overseas textile and clothing inventory: It has declined slightly month - on - month [240]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Report Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and lead on January 30, 2026 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot domestic price is 105125, LME price is 13820, and the ratio is 7.40; March domestic price is 109400, LME price is 13914, and the ratio is 7.41. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 7.88, with a profit of 1825.50, and the spot export profit is 4722.22 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot domestic price is 25290, LME price is 3440, and the ratio is 7.35; March domestic price is 26010, LME price is 3462, and the ratio is 4.90. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.28, with a loss of 3182.91 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot domestic price is 24860, LME price is 3276, and the ratio is 7.59; March domestic price is 25655, LME price is 3300, and the ratio is 7.62. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.29, with a loss of 2318.30 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot domestic price is 142750, LME price is 18503, and the ratio is 7.71. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.03, with a loss of 450.01 [1] - **Lead**: Spot domestic price is 16750, LME price is 1998, and the ratio is 8.39; March domestic price is 17255, LME price is 2046, and the ratio is 12.39. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.53, with a loss of 262.88 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next month, March, April, May and the spot month are 6440, 6730, 6930, 6930 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 615, 1129, 1651, 2173 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads between the next month, March, April, May and the spot month are 395, 455, 470, 450 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 231, 368, 504, 641 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads between the next month, March, April, May and the spot month are 40, 105, 150, 195 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 239, 379, 518, 658 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads between the next month, March, April, May and the spot month are 270, 340, 380, 390 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 210, 315, 421, 526 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads between the next month, March, April, May and the spot month are 3100, 3240, 3490, 3400 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is 840, and the theoretical spread is 9113 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are - 1485 and 4955 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 24 and 1543 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are 265 and 660 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 250 and 403 respectively [5] - **Lead**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are 165 and 435 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 156 and 268 respectively [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - consecutive contracts) are 4.21, 4.26, 6.34, 0.99, 1.49, 0.66 respectively, and in London (three - consecutive contracts) are 3.99, 4.23, 6.76, 0.94, 1.60, 0.59 respectively [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on January 29, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, with specific data on basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1][5][24][30][39][51]. 3. Summary by Category Power Coal - Basis data from January 22 to January 28, 2026, shows that on January 28, the basis was - 111 yuan/ton, compared to - 116 yuan/ton in the previous few days [1][2]. Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - Basis data for fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from January 22 to January 28, 2026, is provided, along with price ratios and basis values for INE crude oil [7]. Chemical Commodities - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from January 22 to January 28, 2026, shows fluctuations in basis values for each commodity [9]. - Inter - period spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented, including 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads [10]. - Inter - variety spreads for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from January 22 to January 28, 2026, are provided [10]. Black Metals - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from January 22 to January 28, 2026, shows changes in basis values [24]. - Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented, including 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month spreads [23]. - Inter - variety spreads for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from January 22 to January 28, 2026, are provided [23]. Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - Domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from January 22 to January 28, 2026, shows significant fluctuations [32]. London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on January 28, 2026, are provided [35]. Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from January 22 to January 28, 2026, shows changes in basis values [39]. - Inter - period spreads for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are presented, including 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads [39]. - Inter - variety spreads for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from January 22 to January 28, 2026, are provided [39]. Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 22 to January 28, 2026, shows fluctuations [51]. - Inter - period spreads for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including next - month to current - month and next - quarter to current - quarter spreads, are presented [51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on January 28, 2026, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads for different sectors such as power coal, energy and chemical, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - Basis data for power coal from January 21 - 27, 2026 shows that the basis on January 21 was - 115 yuan/ton, and from January 22 - 27 it was - 116 yuan/ton [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Energy Commodities**: Basis and price ratio data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from January 21 - 27, 2026 are provided. For example, on January 27, the basis of INE crude oil was - 11.28 yuan/ton [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from January 21 - 27, 2026 are presented. For instance, on January 27, the basis of rubber was - 355 yuan/ton [9]. - Inter - period spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber was - 600 yuan/ton [10]. - Inter - variety spreads for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from January 21 - 27, 2026 are shown. On January 27, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 1948 yuan/ton [10]. Black Metals - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from January 21 - 27, 2026 are provided. For example, on January 27, the basis of rebar was 114.0 yuan/ton [20]. - Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given. The 5 - 1 month spread of rebar was - 740 yuan/ton [19]. - Inter - variety spreads for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from January 21 - 27, 2026 are presented. On January 27, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.97 [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from January 21 - 27, 2026 are provided. On January 27, the basis of copper was - 1180 yuan/ton [27]. - **London Market**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on January 27, 2026 are given. For example, the LME spread of copper was (93.80) [31]. Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from January 21 - 27, 2026 are provided. On January 27, the basis of soybeans No.1 was - 204 yuan/ton [35]. - Inter - period spreads for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given. The 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 was - 43 yuan/ton [35]. - Inter - variety spreads for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from January 21 - 27, 2026 are presented. On January 27, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.90 [35]. Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 21 - 27, 2026 are provided. On January 27, the basis of CSI 300 was - 12.41 [47]. - Inter - period spreads for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. The next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 44.6 [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, there are no risk - free inter - term arbitrage opportunities for domestic gold, silver, and platinum futures as their term spreads are all less than the term arbitrage costs. However, there is a certain degree of positive term arbitrage opportunity for palladium, as the spread between the PD2608 and PD2612 contracts is 6.5 yuan/gram, slightly larger than the 4 - month term arbitrage cost of 5.48 yuan/gram [4][12]. - There are no statistically significant term arbitrage opportunities for domestic gold futures as the term far - near ratios are all within the 80% confidence interval. For silver futures, since the term far - near ratios are mostly below the 95% confidence interval, investors interested can focus on the statistical term arbitrage strategy of shorting near - month contracts and longing far - month contracts [4][16]. - There are no risk - free spot - futures arbitrage opportunities for domestic gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures as the spot - futures spreads are all less than the positive or negative spot - futures arbitrage costs. The spot - futures ratio of gold futures is within the 80% confidence interval, while that of silver futures is below the 95% confidence interval. Investors interested can focus on the term arbitrage opportunity of shorting silver TD and longing silver futures [4][23]. - From a statistical perspective, investors interested can focus on the cross - variety arbitrage opportunities of longing London platinum and shorting London silver, longing London gold and shorting London silver, and longing London palladium and shorting London silver. Also, considering the Shanghai gold - silver ratio has reached a historical low and is far below the 95% confidence interval, investors can focus on the cross - variety arbitrage opportunity of longing Shanghai gold and shorting Shanghai silver [4][29][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Inter - term Arbitrage - Inter - term arbitrage involves simultaneously going long on a certain month's contract of a futures variety and going short on a different month's contract of the same futures variety. Positive inter - term arbitrage may obtain risk - free returns through warehouse receipt delivery, and enterprises with long - term inventory can reduce inventory costs through reverse inter - term arbitrage. However, reverse inter - term arbitrage without a spot basis and all inter - term arbitrage based purely on statistical analysis are risky [6]. - The main factors affecting the positive inter - term arbitrage cost of gold are the capital cost, which fluctuates with the gold price and market interest rate. For silver, the main factor is also the capital cost, and the trading fee also accounts for a certain proportion. Similar situations apply to platinum and palladium [8][9][11]. - Currently, there are no risk - free inter - term arbitrage opportunities for domestic gold, silver, and platinum futures, but there is a positive term arbitrage opportunity for palladium [4][12]. - For gold and silver, the far - near ratios are used for statistical analysis. Currently, there are no statistically significant term arbitrage opportunities for gold, while for silver, investors can focus on the strategy of shorting near - month contracts and longing far - month contracts [13][16]. 3.2 Precious Metal Spot - Futures Arbitrage - Both positive and negative spot - futures arbitrage can be carried out for gold and silver. For platinum and palladium, only positive spot - futures arbitrage can be considered due to the inability to short - sell in the spot market [18][20]. - The main factor affecting the positive spot - futures arbitrage cost of precious metals is the capital cost, while for negative spot - futures arbitrage, in addition to the capital cost, the deferred compensation fee also has a significant impact [18][19][21]. - Currently, there are no risk - free spot - futures arbitrage opportunities for domestic gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures. Investors can focus on the term arbitrage opportunity of shorting silver TD and longing silver futures [4][23]. 3.3 Precious Metal Cross - variety Arbitrage - The fundamental basis of cross - variety arbitrage is the inter - connection between different precious metal varieties in supply or demand, which makes the price spreads/ratios fluctuate within a certain range, providing arbitrage opportunities [24]. - For London precious metals, currently, the gold - silver ratio is below the 90% confidence interval but within the 95% confidence interval, and investors can focus on cross - variety arbitrage opportunities such as longing platinum, gold, or palladium and shorting silver. For Shanghai precious metals, the gold - silver ratio has reached a historical low and is far below the 95% confidence interval, so investors can focus on the cross - variety arbitrage opportunity of longing Shanghai gold and shorting Shanghai silver [29][30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - After the volatility adjustment of platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange at the end of December, the price directions became clear again. Their upward drivers mainly come from the macro - level, with the weakening of the US dollar index and the market's bet on the decline of the US national fortune [1]. - In 2026, the fundamental outlook for platinum is stronger than that for palladium. The supply fluctuations of both are limited, and the comparison of their fundamentals is mainly from the consumption side. Palladium's consumption growth is expected to be insufficient due to the substitution of new - energy vehicles for traditional fuel - powered vehicles, while platinum has diversified consumption structures and increasing investment demand [2]. - Before the market liquidity tightens significantly, the main investment direction for platinum and palladium is to buy on dips. Given the stronger fundamentals of platinum, some investors prefer the cross - variety arbitrage of going long on platinum and short on palladium. Currently, the price spread between them is large enough to stimulate the substitution of platinum by palladium in the automotive and supply fields, and attention should be paid to the potential price increase of palladium and the timing of taking profits for the long - platinum - short - palladium strategy [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Performance - Since the volatility adjustment of platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange at the end of December, the price fluctuations have narrowed, showing a triangular consolidation pattern. Platinum prices converged to around 615 yuan/gram, and palladium prices to around 480 yuan/gram. Recently, platinum prices have risen by nearly 9%, and some palladium contracts have increased by over 3% [1]. Macro - level Drivers - Although the US no longer imposes additional tariffs on key resources, which eases the structural contradictions of platinum and palladium, after the US's actions such as the arrest of Maduro and Trump's mention of forcefully annexing Greenland, the US - EU relationship has deteriorated. The European countries are selling US Treasury bonds, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index. The market's bet on the decline of the US national fortune may further increase, and the balance between "money" and "goods" is tilting towards "goods", giving more premium space to platinum and palladium [1]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: The supply structures of platinum and palladium are quite different, but their supply fluctuations are relatively limited. High prices have stimulated the production enthusiasm of mines, and the impact of Western sanctions on Russian palladium exports to China is minimal [2]. - **Demand Side**: Over 80% of palladium's end - consumption is for automobile exhaust catalysts. With the accelerated substitution of new - energy vehicles for traditional fuel - powered vehicles, its consumption growth is expected to be insufficient, and the supply - demand gap will significantly narrow in 2026. Platinum has a more diversified consumption structure. Automobile exhaust catalysts account for only 40% of its consumption, and investment and jewelry demand account for 30%. With the rise in platinum prices, investment demand is increasing, and the prospects of commercial aerospace and large - scale application of hydrogen energy also bring good consumption expectations. In 2026, the supply - demand gap may further widen [2]. Investment Strategy - Before the market liquidity tightens significantly, the main strategy for platinum and palladium is to buy on dips. Some investors prefer the cross - variety arbitrage of going long on platinum and short on palladium. As of January 23, the price spread between platinum and palladium has reached 185 yuan/gram, which is large enough to stimulate the substitution of platinum by palladium in relevant fields. Attention should be paid to the potential price increase of palladium and the timing of taking profits for the long - platinum - short - palladium strategy [3].