美联储博斯蒂克：两次降息并非基准情形，预计通胀将具有粘性。 来源：滚动播报 ...

华尔街预计美联储的降息周期将暂停，直至5月美联储主席鲍威尔的任期结束。 "市场对此反应平淡，很大程度上是因为鲍威尔仅剩两次主持会议的机会。就他试图传递任 何前瞻指引而言，其效力存在一个明确的'到期日'。" 此前，就业市场呈现疲软迹象曾促使美联储在去年开启降息周期，经过九个月的观望后，于9月、10月 和12月连续三次会议各降息25个基点，将利率降至当前3.50%-3.75%的区间。 当前市场的核心关切在于，面对依然顽固的通胀压力，美联储是否能在今年晚些时候有条件重启降息周 期，从而继续为股市及整体经济提供必要的流动性支持。 内布拉斯加州奥马哈财富管理机构Orion首席投资官Tim Holland评论称： "我们认为当前经济表现尚可，但通胀仍具粘性，美联储维持利率不变是正确决定。如果鲍 威尔在其任内再次推动降息，我们将感到非常意外。" 野村证券发达市场经济首席分析师David Seif进一步指出： 在当地时间周三的议息会议上，美联储决定维持利率不变。市场普遍预期，这一暂停状态将至少持续至 现任主席鲍威尔卸任之时，投资者的关注焦点转向了下一任主席人选以及新一轮降息何时重启。 最新利率期货定价显示，市场已将下一次降息 ...

他在采访中明确指出："过去几个月债券市场表现亮眼，尤其是在通胀前景实现2%目标略显脆弱的情况 下。当前政府债券收益率水平明显偏低。"这一观点与市场主流预期形成鲜明对比——市场普遍认为物 价压力终将缓解，从而为央行降息创造政策空间，而他认为这种乐观预期可能忽略了通胀黏性对利率政 策的持续约束作用。 智通财经APP获悉，贝莱德公司基金经理汤姆·贝克尔指出，当前市场严重低估了美国与英国通胀持续 高企的潜在风险，基于此判断，他已逐步减持两国政府债券。作为管理规模达41亿美元的贝莱德战术机 会基金的联席负责人，贝克尔自去年底以来持续加码对美英长期国债的空头头寸布局。他表示，这一策 略源于对通胀粘性的研判——若物价水平持续高位运行，将显著制约央行降息空间，从而推高长期债券 收益率并压缩其价格上行潜力。 交易员目前定价反映了美联储和英国央行到今年年底将各降息约50个基点的预期。有关美国总统唐纳德 ·特朗普将任命一位政策立场比杰罗姆·鲍威尔更为鸽派的新美联储主席的猜测，也助长了对进一步降息 的押注。 然而，贝莱德管理层则认为当前市场对美联储和英国央行年内降息50个基点的预期过于乐观，现有债券 收益率未能充分补偿持续上行的通胀 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market demonstrates resilience as a core safe-haven asset amidst a complex global financial environment, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and sovereign debt risks attracting long-term capital inflows into precious metals [1][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical and Debt Market Influences - The recent volatility in the Japanese debt market, with long-term government bond yields rising over 25 basis points, is causing global ripple effects through financial leverage [4]. - Risk parity funds may be forced to reduce positions in response to this volatility, potentially triggering up to $130 billion in selling pressure in the U.S. bond market [4]. - This liquidity squeeze risk compels investors to seek more stable value anchors, with gold being the preferred choice [4]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - Global central bank gold purchases are providing solid support for gold prices, with the National Bank of Poland recently approving a plan to buy 150 tons of gold, and Bolivia's central bank resuming gold reserve purchases [2][4]. - This structural demand led to Comex February gold futures reaching a historical high of $4,891.10, indicating a revaluation of traditional reserve assets by central banks and opening up premium space for gold [2][4]. Group 3: Market Trends and Technical Analysis - As February approaches, the upcoming snap elections in Japan are expected to heighten global market volatility [5]. - Traditional stock and bond assets are losing their defensive attributes due to aggressive fiscal policies in major economies, while gold and silver are positioned as hard assets with natural advantages against inflation and debt crises [5]. - The bullish sentiment remains high, with gold prices stabilizing above the $4,700 support level and the next psychological resistance at $5,000 [5]. - Current market pullbacks are viewed as profit-taking within a high-level consolidation rather than a signal of a bull market's end, with potential for gold prices to surpass $5,000 soon [5].

US Macro - The US economy is characterized by a hot economy and a cold labor market, with signs of further increases in goods prices. The economic momentum is uneven, with the services PMI significantly above the boom-bust line, indicating sustained robust supply and demand, while manufacturing demand weakens. Accelerated inventory drawdowns and a sharp contraction in imports reflect an uncertain environment surrounding tariffs and economic policies. US employment remains subdued but has not lost resilience, with December non-farm payrolls falling short of market expectations while the unemployment rate outperformed expectations, primarily due to a decline in the labor force participation rate and a contraction in part-time employment [1][7][45]. Non-Farm Payroll Data - December's non-farm payrolls underperformed expectations, with 50,000 new jobs added, below the market consensus of 70,000. The unemployment rate was 4.4%, better than the expected 4.5%. The decline in the unemployment rate was driven by a falling labor force participation rate and reduced part-time employment. The labor participation rate was 62.4%, meeting market expectations [2][10][49]. - Average hourly earnings for non-farm employees grew by 3.76% year-over-year, exceeding the market expectation of 3.6%. However, this is not expected to significantly drive inflation as both average weekly hours and part-time employment declined [2][10][49]. - In the service sector, job gains were primarily driven by Education & Health Services and Leisure & Hospitality, with December seeing Leisure & Hospitality surpass Healthcare & Social Assistance for the first time, adding 47,000 and 38,500 jobs respectively. In the goods-producing sector, construction employment decreased by 11,000 jobs, while manufacturing employment continued to decline [3][10][49]. ISM PMI Data - The US Manufacturing and Services PMIs showed divergence, with the Services PMI expanding sharply to 54.4, indicating a strengthening expansion trend, while the Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9, marking the 10th consecutive month below the boom-bust line [4][27]. - The services sector exhibited robust supply and demand, supported by steady consumer spending and a rebound following the end of the government shutdown. The surge in the Services PMI was driven by New Orders, which increased by 5.0 points to 57.9, while New Export Orders reversed contraction, rising by 5.5 points to 54.2. Employment in the services sector returned to expansion for the first time in seven months, rising to 52.0 [4][27][48]. - Manufacturing demand weakened, with inventory drawdowns accelerating and imports contracting sharply, reflecting the uncertain environment of tariffs and economic policies. New Orders saw a slight rebound but remained significantly below the boom-bust line. Inventories were the main factor dragging the PMI lower, contributing to a decline in the overall PMI [5][27][48].

前言： 你若有缘看到金晟富的文章，相信你也肯定是看了无数篇的文章，寻找了无数个老师，却依旧做不好一 单的交易，我相信大家进来这个市场，追求的是长期稳健的收益，可现实往往让大家迷失了本心，偏离 了初衷。现在，是做出改变的时候了，找到属于自己的机会，晟富要做的就是用自己多年以来丰富的经 验和专业能力助你洞悉行情的涨跌，透过涨跌看透行情的本质。 从日线结构看，昨日收报一根长下影探底饱满反阳K，一般来讲，这种形态的企稳作用都相对强烈，也 意味着短期10均线位置基本确认完毕，这周的震荡区间下轨4400基本也就出来了，后续就看上轨4500的 突破，拿下之后或又展开新的高位区间或走趋势拉升；黄金4小时图来看：昨夜一波探底拉升之后，站 上了中轨和10均线，今日则双双成为顶底支撑，也就是守住4480-4460这个范围，此周期依然倾向于偏 强看涨；从小时线周期分析，价格下探4452后形成逐步抬升的低点，MACD指标在零轴上方维持金叉 状态，红柱温和放量，显示短期多头动能仍在延续；布林带轨道开口走平，价格依托布林中轨震荡上 行，当前运行至中轨与上轨之间，上轨4520附近存在初步压力，下轨4480则构成日内短期支撑；RSI指 标运行 ...

明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡利当地时间周一表示，美联储距离停止降息已非常接近，当前货币政策的关键在于平衡劳动力市场放缓与通胀水平偏高 之间的矛盾。他指出，目前的货币政策立场已非常接近中性水平，未来需根据数据变化判断是通胀问题更突出，还是劳动力市场更值得担忧，进而再决定调 整方向。 卡什卡利强调，对于美联储决策者而言，准确校准中性利率至关重要。目前联邦基金利率目标区间为百分之三点五至三点七五，距离美联储对中性利率的共 识仅约五十个基点。但他也坦言，通胀水平仍然偏高，而货币政策究竟对经济形成了多大的下行压力，仍是他心中最大的疑问。 凯德北京投资基金分析师认为，美联储内部对于是否在二零二六年继续降息仍存在分歧，政策路径将取决于劳动力市场与通胀数据的后续演变。卡什卡利的 表态反映了部分成员对通胀粘性的持续警惕，同时也显示出对经济可能放缓的谨慎关注。 他预计，未来一段时间美国劳动力市场将呈现"低招聘、低裁员"的态势，不过这一现象在中小企业中并不明显。谈及美联储内部时，卡什卡利表示，如果鲍 威尔在其任期结束后选择留任，他将表示欢迎。他认为鲍威尔表现非常出色，尽管没有人是完美的，但整体工作值得肯定，他希望鲍威尔能继续作 ...

Core Viewpoint and Target Price - The target price for gold is projected to reach a quarterly high of $4,400 per ounce in the first half of 2026, with a long-term price range of $3,500 to $4,400 per ounce, and potential peaks even higher [1] - The core judgment indicates that gold will benefit from Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and increased central bank and investment demand, while platinum and palladium are expected to lead the rise in precious metals, with silver potentially retreating to the mid-$40 range [1] Bullish Core Logic - Anticipation of a 100 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026 will lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, while a steepening yield curve and concerns over Fed independence will further enhance safe-haven buying demand [2] - High U.S. debt levels, de-dollarization, and the push for de-globalization are driving central banks to continue increasing gold holdings, with investors reallocating to commodities and sustained net inflows into gold ETFs indicating rising investment demand [2] - Limited supply growth and diversified demand (from central banks, investors, and industrial uses) are supporting prices, with the long-term price range moving up to $3,500 to $4,400 per ounce [2] Downside Risk Factors - Strengthening U.S. risk assets may lead to capital outflows from safe-haven assets, diminishing the attractiveness of gold allocations [3] - Resilient employment data and persistent inflation may result in the Federal Reserve cutting rates less than expected or pausing easing, which could strengthen the dollar and real interest rates, thereby suppressing gold prices [4] - Easing geopolitical tensions and a slowdown in de-dollarization may reduce gold's priority as a safe-haven and allocation asset [5] Market and Institutional Comparison - Various institutions have set different target prices for gold in 2026, with TD Securities projecting $4,400 per ounce based on rate cuts and central bank purchases, Deutsche Bank at a baseline of $4,450 per ounce with a peak of $4,950 per ounce due to strong central bank and ETF demand, and others indicating even higher targets based on similar factors [6] Key Operations and Observations - Monitoring the Federal Reserve's policy path and inflation data, particularly the extent and timing of rate cuts in 2026, is crucial as it serves as a core catalyst for gold prices [7] - Tracking central bank gold purchases and gold ETF fund flows will help assess the strength of physical and investment demand [8] - If gold prices retreat to around $3,600 per ounce, it is considered a favorable buying opportunity by TD Securities [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent divergence among Federal Reserve officials has led to market volatility, impacting gold prices significantly, with a daily fluctuation of nearly $100, yet still recording a weekly gain [1][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The market is currently focused on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, which will include delayed data from October and November due to government shutdowns, potentially providing clearer signals for the economy and employment [1][5]. - The internal conflict within the Federal Reserve has shifted market expectations from a one-sided view on easing policies, weakening the basis for a continued surge in gold prices [6][7]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the unresolved Russia-Ukraine situation and the indefinite freezing of Russian central bank assets by the EU, are contributing to a sustained demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [6][7]. - Additional regional conflicts, including the Thailand-Cambodia border situation and a severe terrorist attack in Sydney, Australia, are also maintaining a flow of risk-averse capital into the gold market [6][7]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technically, gold is expected to face resistance around the 4340-30 range; if this level holds, the market may enter a period of consolidation or await the non-farm data for direction [2][6]. - A sustained move above 4340 could negate the impact of recent price corrections, potentially leading to a renewed bullish trend, although this state may not be beneficial for trading strategies [2][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is anticipated to remain in a state of fluctuation until key economic data, including the non-farm payroll and CPI reports, are released, which will determine whether concerns about recession or persistent inflation dominate [7]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest selling gold at 4330-4332 with a stop loss at 4340, targeting a drop to the 4300-4280 range, while a hold above 4340 could lead to buying opportunities targeting 4360-4380 [3][7].

GDP数据公布后，英镑兑美元小幅下跌0.1%至1.337美元。交易员维持对下周降息25个基点的押注，概率维持在90%。 英国10月GDP意外收缩0.1%，加之通胀预期从两年高位回落，为英国央行下周重启降息周期提供有力支撑。疲弱的增长数据及缓和的价格压力正 推动市场将降息概率推升至90%。 英国国家统计局周五公布的数据显示，10月GDP环比下滑0.1%，低于路透调查经济学家预期的0.1%增长。这是英国经济过去七个月中实现增长后 再度萎缩，分析人士和英国统计局将这一放缓归因于人们对Rachel Reeves增税预算案引发的不确定性。 与此同时，英国央行最新调查显示，家庭对未来12个月通胀预期从8月份两年高位3.6%降至3.5%，五年期通胀预期也下降0.1个百分点至3.7%。这 一缓解为货币政策委员会提供了进一步宽松的空间。 通胀预期回落提振降息前景 英国央行密切跟踪的前瞻性通胀预期调查释放积极信号。调查显示，家庭对未来通胀的预期小幅回落，这被视为支持央行进一步降息的重要依 据。 Pantheon Macroeconomics首席英国经济学家Robert Wood表示，预期回落将让货币政策委员会感到宽慰，预计随着总 ...