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东方证券香港财富管理周报-2025-03-13
Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed outlook for the manufacturing and services sectors in the U.S., with manufacturing showing signs of weakness while services demonstrate resilience [4][3]. Core Insights - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for February was reported at 50.3, below expectations of 50.8, indicating a slight expansion in manufacturing activity. Notably, the new orders index fell by 6.5 percentage points, reflecting a significant decline in demand [4][3]. - In contrast, the ISM services PMI for February was reported at 53.5, exceeding expectations of 52.5, suggesting an acceleration in service sector expansion [4][3]. - The services employment index rose to 53.9, while the prices index increased by 2.2 percentage points to 62.6, indicating persistent cost pressures that are being passed on to consumers [3][4]. Summary by Sections Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing employment index and new orders index both saw significant declines, with the new orders index dropping to its lowest level since May of the previous year [4][8]. - The manufacturing prices index surged to 62.4, significantly higher than the expected 56.3, indicating accelerated price growth [4][3]. Services Sector - The services sector showed resilience with a PMI of 53.5, reflecting a faster expansion rate compared to previous months [4][3]. - The services new orders index saw a slight increase, while the employment index experienced its first decline in three months [8][3]. Inflation and Economic Outlook - The report highlights persistent inflationary pressures, with the manufacturing prices index remaining above 60 for three consecutive months, indicating sticky inflation in the U.S. economy [3][4]. - The overall economic outlook suggests a potential shift towards "stagflation" as manufacturing demand weakens while costs remain high [4][3].