Core Viewpoint - The current volatility in global stock, bond, currency, and precious metal markets indicates a highly concentrated expectation and liquidity, with a potential end to the era of ultra-loose monetary policy, as highlighted by the BIS warning [1][3]. Market Trends - As of December 8, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 2.92 basis points to 4.164%, nearing the 4.2% mark, with long-term yields in Japan and Germany also reaching new highs [1]. - The three major U.S. stock indices fell for the third consecutive trading day, with the S&P 500 index down 2.1% from its November peak [1]. - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.12% to 99.10, while most non-U.S. currencies faced downward pressure [1]. - International precious metal futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 0.54% to $4219.90 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 0.94% to $58.50 per ounce [1]. Federal Reserve Expectations - Market focus is on the Federal Reserve's December meeting, with an 84.8% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is only 15.2% [3]. - The anticipated rate cut may not signify the expected easing but could represent a tightening signal due to distorted market price signals [3]. Employment Data Impact - The U.S. ADP employment data for November showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs, the largest drop since March 2023, significantly below the expected increase of 40,000 jobs, with small businesses being the hardest hit [4][6]. Analyst Revisions - Following the weak employment data, major Wall Street firms like JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley have revised their forecasts, with Standard Chartered explicitly changing its prediction from "maintaining rates" to "a 25 basis point cut" [6]. - Nomura Securities has also adjusted its reports to support the rate cut, acknowledging previous misinterpretations of Fed Chair Powell's hawkish signals [6]. Market Pricing and Future Projections - The market has already priced in the rate cut, indicating that the anticipated easing may lack additional positive impact, leading to a focus on the 2026 policy path [7]. - The internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding hawkish and dovish stances is becoming more pronounced, with potential voting outcomes indicating a split [7]. - Analysts predict a rare voting pattern of "4 hawkish dissenting votes + 1 dovish dissenting vote" during the upcoming rate decision [7]. Economic Outlook - The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) survey indicates an upward revision of the median growth forecast for the U.S. economy in 2026 to 2%, with inflation expected to decrease to 2.6% and unemployment rising to 4.5% [10]. - The anticipated tightening of monetary policy is reflected in the bond market, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising by 26 basis points since late November [13]. - The stock market, particularly the S&P 500, has shown declines despite rising rate cut expectations, indicating concerns over liquidity tightening [13]. Liquidity Conditions - Recent trends in the U.S. repo market show tightening liquidity, with the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) reaching a high of 4.5% [15]. - The market's perception of liquidity measures as "countering liquidity shortages" rather than "active easing" reinforces the notion that a lack of incremental easing equates to tightening [15].

格隆汇12月3日｜William Blair的分析师Alexandra Symeonidi表示，黄金的上涨势头可能会受到挑战，如 果明年市场情绪改善，资产配置重新流向风险资产。她表示，虽然黄金期货的持仓量高于长期平均水 平，但远低于今年的峰值，这可能预示着在年初强劲上涨之后，黄金市场乐观情绪有所减弱。这位分析 师在一份报告中指出，在降息周期中通胀仍具粘性的情况下，投资者对黄金的配置可能会增加。 Symeonidi还认为，"央行对黄金的需求更具结构性，因为美国财政赤字一直在增加，而且新兴市场央行 配置黄金占外汇储备的比例偏低。" ...

当地时间11月19日，美联储公布了10月28日至29日的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪 要。会议纪要显示，决策者对12月是否继续降息存在较大分歧。 该纪要凸显美联储内部就通胀与失业哪一方对美国经济构成更大威胁存在巨大分歧，这也加大了12月利 率决策的不确定性。 中间派（包括鲍威尔、副主席杰斐逊等）则倾向观望，采取更耐心的方式进行政策调整。 传统货币政策框架要求"对症下药"——通过加息抑通胀、降息稳就业。但当前经济同时面临两方面压 力，使美联储陷入两难。激进加息可能加剧就业市场恶化，过早宽松或导致通胀再度反弹。这种"既要 抗通胀、又要保就业"的困境，被经济学家称为"轻度滞胀"。 根据最新公布的会议纪要，美联储决策层对通胀威胁的评估出现明显分化。部分与会者认为，剔除关税 因素后，当前通胀水平已接近政策目标。但更多委员强调，整体通胀率已持续超标运行，且缺乏明确证 据显示能在短期内可持续地回落至2%的目标区间。 值得关注的是，在10月底的议息会议上，尽管美联储做出了连续第二次降息25个基点的决定，但内部出 现双重异议：一位委员主张更大幅度的50个基点降息，另一位则坚持维持利率不变。这是自2019年以来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cut is now uncertain due to diverging views among officials regarding the health of the economy, persistent inflation, and weak job markets [1][3] Group 1: Diverging Opinions Among Federal Reserve Officials - Some policymakers have heightened concerns about persistent inflation, linking it to the recent focus on "affordability" during the elections [3] - Another faction emphasizes the risks of a weak job market, suggesting that low hiring and layoffs could worsen the current employment situation [3] - The internal division within the Federal Reserve reflects a complex economic outlook influenced by tariffs, AI advancements, immigration policy changes, and tax reforms [3] Group 2: Risks of Delayed Rate Cuts - If the Federal Reserve reduces the scale of interest rate cuts, high costs for housing and auto loans will persist, exacerbating public dissatisfaction with living costs [3][4] - Polls indicate that high mortgage and auto loan rates are contributing to widespread discontent among the populace [3] Group 3: Anticipated Opposition Votes in Upcoming Meetings - Analysts predict a significant number of dissenting votes in the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, regardless of whether a rate cut is decided [4] - If a rate cut occurs, dissenting votes could reach four to five, while maintaining rates could see three dissenting votes, marking a rare occurrence in the Fed's history [4] Group 4: Impact of Government Shutdown on Economic Data - The government shutdown has interrupted the release of economic data, complicating the Federal Reserve's data-dependent decision-making approach [6] - The latest employment data is stuck at August levels, and inflation data is only updated to September, creating challenges for the Fed [6] Group 5: Market Expectations and Stock Market Reactions - The probability of a rate cut in December has dropped to around 50%, down from nearly 94% a month ago, contributing to recent stock market corrections [7] - The current rate cut probability has slightly rebounded to 48.9% [7] Group 6: Diverging Views on Future Rate Cuts - After the Fed's second rate cut in October, Chairman Powell dampened expectations for further cuts, stating that December's cut is "not a foregone conclusion" [8] - Various regional Fed officials have expressed concerns about inflation, emphasizing the need to maintain rates around 3.9% to help bring inflation back to target [8] - Conversely, some officials argue that the weak job market poses a more significant risk and advocate for a December rate cut [8] Group 7: Key Economic Indicators and Political Pressures - The upcoming labor market data will be crucial in shaping the Fed's consensus on rate cuts [9] - Political pressures, including discussions about potential replacements for Chairman Powell, may influence the Fed's policy direction [9] Group 8: Institutional Perspectives - Citigroup predicts that weak labor market data will lead the Fed to initiate a rate cut in December, which is a key variable affecting the current stock market [10] - The end of the government shutdown is expected to improve market liquidity, creating a favorable environment for U.S. equities [10]

Core Viewpoint - There is a significant division within the Federal Reserve regarding whether to continue interest rate cuts in December, with concerns about persistent inflation and tariff effects versus worries about weak employment and slowing demand [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Disagreement - Some officials advocate for pausing interest rate cuts due to concerns over sticky inflation and tariff impacts [1] - Dovish members emphasize the importance of addressing weak employment and declining demand [1] - The government shutdown has interrupted key economic data, exacerbating the division among decision-makers [1] Group 2: Current Interest Rate Context - The current interest rate is in the range of 3.75% to 4% [1] - Market expectations indicate a slightly higher probability of a rate cut in December, despite the internal Fed conflict [1] - The situation reflects a rare "hawk-dove standoff" within the Federal Reserve in recent years [1]

Group 1: Gold Market - Last week, spot gold fell by $110.67, a decrease of 2.68%, closing at $4002.48, but it has seen a cumulative increase of 3.7% in October, marking the third consecutive month of gains [1] - Currently, gold is trading slightly higher around $4022 [1] Group 2: U.S. Government Shutdown - As of October 31, the U.S. government shutdown has lasted for a month, and if a temporary funding bill is not passed by November 5, it will break the record for the longest shutdown in U.S. history [4] - Approximately 42 million low-income individuals, disabled persons, and the elderly will lose access to food assistance programs starting November 1, exacerbating food security issues [4] - The ongoing political stalemate between the Democratic and Republican parties continues to hinder the passage of necessary funding legislation [4][5] Group 3: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increasing internal divisions regarding future interest rate cuts, with some officials advocating for a rate cut in December due to risks of slowing employment [6] - Market expectations for a rate cut in December have decreased, with the probability dropping from over 90% to approximately 63% [8] - Key economic data releases this week, including the ADP employment report and the ISM manufacturing index, will be closely monitored as they may influence the Fed's decision-making [9][11][12] Group 4: Economic Data and Market Sentiment - Economists predict that the October non-farm payrolls may show an increase of only about 50,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate potentially rising to 4.4% [11] - The ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to slightly rise to 49.5, but rising input costs and sales prices could heighten concerns about persistent inflation [12] - Overall, the stock market is in a delicate phase characterized by short-term optimism driven by earnings, while long-term risks remain [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to maintain the cash rate at 3.6% during its upcoming meeting, with no forward guidance anticipated due to increasing economic uncertainty [1][3]. Economic Indicators - The core inflation rate in Australia rose from a revised 0.7% in Q2 to 1% in Q3, reaching the upper limit of the RBA's target range of 2-3% [3]. - Domestic demand remains strong, driven by government tax cuts and energy subsidies, contributing to persistent inflation, particularly in services [3]. - Recent data indicates a rise in credit growth and record-high housing prices, suggesting that the financial environment is not overly tight [3]. Labor Market Conditions - The labor market shows signs of loosening, with employment growth slowing and the unemployment rate rising to 4.5%, the highest level since September 2021 [4]. - A report indicated that the number of private sector job advertisements fell for the fourth consecutive month, down 7.4% year-on-year, reflecting labor market weakness [4]. Future Projections - Some economists predict that Australia may face a situation similar to the U.S., where moderate economic growth and rising unemployment could lead to a cooling of prices, prompting the RBA to consider rate cuts [4]. - The RBA is expected to maintain its current policy until there is clear evidence of economic direction, with some forecasts suggesting two rate cuts in the next year, bringing the rate down to 3.1% [5].

Core Views - The Federal Reserve officials are engaged in a heated debate regarding the direction of monetary policy, with notable divisions on the decision to lower interest rates [1][5] Group 1: Hawkish Perspectives - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack oppose the recent rate cut decision, emphasizing that inflation risks have not fully dissipated and cautioning against aggressive rate cuts [3][4] - Logan highlights that while overall inflation is declining, core service prices and wage growth exhibit "sticky" characteristics, warning that excessive rate cuts could accelerate inflation, forcing the FOMC to tighten policy again [3] - Hammack points out that the current policy stance is close to neutral but not fully achieved, citing that the November core CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year, with service price increases still above pre-pandemic levels [3] Group 2: Dovish Perspectives - Fed Governor Christopher Waller advocates for a gradual approach to rate cuts, stating that current rates remain significantly above neutral levels, and further cuts would not be a drastic measure but rather a moderation of policy [4] - Waller notes that the labor market has shifted from overheating to balance, but warns of potential upward pressure on unemployment due to reduced job creation by new businesses [4] - He also mentions uncertainties in fiscal policy, indicating that large-scale tariffs or fiscal expansion could raise short-term inflation, while long-term economic slowdown and debt burdens may limit policy flexibility [4] Group 3: Powell's Position and Market Reaction - Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledges significant internal disagreement on the path of rate cuts, stating that the recent 25 basis point cut to 3.75%-4.00% was a cautious choice balancing employment and inflation risks [5] - Powell emphasizes that the decision for December will depend entirely on economic data over the next six weeks, highlighting three uncertainties: government shutdown impacts on Q4 GDP, tariff policy effects on prices, and potential deterioration in the labor market [5] - Following these statements, market expectations for a December rate cut have decreased sharply from 80% to 55%, with the dollar index rising above 104, indicating a shift in market sentiment [5]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns regarding the possibility of interest rate cuts this week and in December, indicating that such decisions are not guaranteed [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Concerns - Four Federal Reserve officials voiced their worries about the recent interest rate cut and the potential for another cut in December [1] - Kansas City Fed President Esther George voted against the 25 basis point cut, citing concerns over persistent inflation [1] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, both without voting rights this year, suggested they would oppose a rate cut if they had the opportunity [1] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Mester emphasized the need to maintain a restrictive policy stance to bring inflation back to target levels [1] - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, while supporting the 25 basis point cut, highlighted the importance of ensuring that the policy stance remains tight amid stubborn inflation across various sectors [1] - Bostic noted that each rate cut makes the justification for further easing less clear, as rates approach a neutral level that may not effectively curb price increases [1]

Core Insights - The September CPI data indicates persistent inflation, described as "sticky," but it is not out of control, which is viewed as a positive sign [1][2] - Core inflation rose by 0.2%, aligning with expectations, while the year-on-year increase stands at 3% [1][2] - Overall inflation rates met market consensus, although the year-on-year increase has slightly expanded, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures from tariffs that are diminishing consumer purchasing power [1][2] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points next week, indicating a shift from focusing on combating inflation to addressing the deterioration of the job market [1][2] - This suggests that further rate cuts may be anticipated in the future as the Fed adjusts its monetary policy approach [1][2]