Group 1 - The international silver spot price hit a new low, with COMEX gold futures down 3.08% at $4798.1 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 16.64% at $70.35 per ounce [1] - The significant drop in COMEX silver futures erased the gains accumulated over the previous three days, indicating a volatile market reaction [2] - The market's initial reaction was triggered by Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which alleviated concerns about the Fed's independence and strengthened the dollar, negatively impacting gold and silver prices [3] Group 2 - On January 30, the international precious metals market experienced its largest single-day drop since 1980, with silver falling over 36% and gold dropping more than 12% [3] - Following a brief rebound from February 2 to February 4, where COMEX silver futures increased by 0.98%, 10.27%, and 5.36%, the subsequent drop on February 5 negated these gains [2] - The CME's "FedWatch" indicated a 22.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by March, with a 77.3% chance of maintaining current rates, reflecting market expectations for monetary policy [4] Group 3 - The A-share non-ferrous metal sector faced continued pressure, with companies like Hunan Silver and Sichuan Gold experiencing significant declines, including trading halts [4] - Experts suggest that the adjustment in gold and silver prices is not over, advising investors against blindly trying to buy the dip and emphasizing the importance of market conditions and geopolitical factors [5] - The relationship between gold prices and the dollar is highlighted, with a strong dollar typically leading to weaker gold prices, indicating a complex interplay of economic factors affecting precious metals [5]

高盛外汇策略师Mike Cahill表示，仅凭沃什此前言论判断其政策取向是错误的，"愿意降息是他获得这 份工作的先决条件"。 智通财经2月5日讯（编辑 黄君芝）不出意外的话，美联储今年即将告别"鲍威尔时代"，迎来"沃什时 代"。但鉴于沃什过去鹰派的言论，许多分析人士担心美联储的"降息之路"就此打住。 然而，高盛似乎并不这么认为。该行在最新报告中指出，市场可能再次误判了这位美联储新主席的实际 立场，沃什领导的美联储未必会导致利率抬高，降息和量化宽松政策仍在考虑之中。 众所周知，降低利率可以降低失业率，但会导致通货膨胀，反之亦然。正是由于这种动态，即将卸任的 鲍威尔去年直到9月份才对利率问题采取行动，他担心降息会加剧通货膨胀。沃什上任后的利率路径无 疑是市场最关心的问题，高盛预计美联储今年将降息2次。 特朗普周三也指出，若其提名的美联储主席人选曾表达过加息意愿，那么这个人就不会获得这一工作机 会。他毫不怀疑利率 "很快就会下调"。 缩表问题 高盛还指出，该行不认为沃什会推动资产负债表大幅缩减，因美联储内部对"充足准备金"框架有广泛支 持，并直言激进缩表对风险资产破坏性太大。 在资产负债表问题上，沃什是个长期批评者 ...

Market Overview - The Nikkei average index significantly rose on February 3, reaching a new historical high since January 14, with an increase of 2065 points (4%) to close at 54720 points, marking the largest gain since the victory of Prime Minister Kishi in the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election in October 2025 [2][4] - The market is experiencing strong expectations for stock price increases, but there remains caution regarding risks, as indicated by the Nikkei average volatility index (VI) reaching 36, the highest level in about two months [5] Investor Sentiment - Investor psychology has improved, driven by the upcoming House of Representatives election on February 8, with a strong historical trend of buying before elections, as 21 out of the last 25 instances since 1952 saw the Nikkei average rise before voting [5] - The expectation that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party will secure a majority in the upcoming election has been particularly highlighted, contributing to a 2% increase in the index as of February 3 [5] External Influences - The rise in overseas stock markets, including a 1% increase in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, has also contributed to the positive sentiment in the Japanese market [5] - Strong performance in the U.S. manufacturing sector, as indicated by the ISM manufacturing index, has reinforced perceptions of a robust U.S. economy [5] Corporate Performance - Approximately 70% of Japanese listed companies reported increased final profits as of January 30, with the proportion of profit-increasing companies reaching the highest level in four years, driven by investments in generative AI [7] - Notable companies like Kyocera and TDK saw their stock prices rise by 12% after raising their earnings forecasts for the fiscal year ending in March 2026 [7] Market Dynamics - There is a notable reduction in short positions by investors who previously bet on stock price corrections, while those who missed the rally are beginning to buy in [7] - However, the price-to-earnings ratio (PER) based on the Nikkei average is approximately 20 times, the highest level in about 13 years excluding the COVID-19 pandemic, indicating potential overvaluation and susceptibility to profit-taking [7] - There is a clear trend of net selling among investors, with many choosing to reduce their holdings during the stock price surge [7]

周一夜盘时段，有色金属板块延续跌势。截至夜盘收盘，国际铜期货主力合约收跌1.11%，沪铜期货主力合约收跌1.01%，沪铝期货主力合约收跌2.12%， 沪锌期货主力合约收跌1.07%，沪铅期货主力合约收跌0.77%，沪镍期货主力合约收跌2.83%，沪锡期货主力合约收跌12.38%。 中信建投期货工业品首席研究员江露表示，"鹰派"候选人凯文·沃什被提名担任美联储新一任主席，使美联储货币政策收紧的预期加强，美元与美债收益 率飙升，以美元计价的有色金属惨遭空头打压。同时，伴随着国内春节假期临近，资金避险情绪大幅升温，诸多利空因素共振引发有色板块短期大幅回 调。 周一，在金银价格持续暴跌的带动下，有色金属板块也遭遇"抛售潮"。内盘方面，截至当日收盘，沪铜、沪铝、沪锡、沪镍、铝合金和国际铜期货主力合 约跌停，其余品种也不同幅度下挫。 | 沪镍 2603 | 129650 -11.00% -16030 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 ni2603 | | | | | 沪锡2603 | 392650 -11.00% -48530 | | | | 期货 sn2603 | | | | | ...

来源：北京日报客户端 2月2日，贵金属急跌行情仍未平息，多品种价格再度大幅跳水。其中，伦敦金现盘中一度失守4700、 4600、4500美元多个整数关口，距离跌穿4400美元也近在咫尺，盘中最大单日跌幅约10%。而就在金价 跌穿60日均线后，黄金也迎来明显反弹，截至18:00，伦敦金现价格回升至4700美元上方，日内跌幅收 窄至3.69%。自1月29日以来，伦敦金价自5598.75美元/盎司的历史高位跌去近700美元，三日内跌幅达 12.81%，行情的剧烈震荡也引发对后市方向的高度关注——黄金牛市能否延续？ 针对此次黄金暴跌行情，有市场分析认为，美国总统特朗普1月30日提名美国联邦储备委员会前理事凯 文·沃什为下任美联储主席，加剧了此次贵金属价格大跌。沃什曾公开批评量化宽松政策的副作用，认 为美联储需要与美国财政部在政策上更紧密地协作。 与此同时，美国劳工部1月30日公布2025年12月份和全年核心生产者价格指数（PPI）均高于经济学家此 前预期，显示通胀逐渐融入整体经济。生产者价格上涨可能迫使美联储维持"中性"货币政策的时间长于 预期，利空金价。叠加此前一个月来黄金价格暴涨，有分析人士认为，此次市场抛售在所 ...

关注债市修复行情的持续性 核心观点 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：杨杰峰 执业证号：S1250523060001 电话：18190773632 邮箱：yangjf@swsc.com.cn 分析师：叶昱宏 执业证号：S1250525070010 电话：18223492691 邮箱：yeyuh@swsc.com.cn [Table_Report 2026 年 02 月 02 日 证券研究报告•固定收益定期报告 债券市场跟踪周报（1.26-1.30） 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 S 2026年 1月，债券市场整体呈现为触底后的修复行情。2026年 1月，债券市 场在经历月初"股强债弱"的逆风期后，走出了一轮由政策预期驱动、配置力 量托底的修复行情。月初，权益市场"春季躁动"预期强烈，风险偏好快速上 行，对债市形成显著压制，收益率曲线呈现陡峭化上行。随着监管层对股市过 快上涨的"降温"表态抑制风险偏好以及央行持续性传达流动性呵护态度，债 市修复行情逐渐开启。1 月 19 日，央行结构性降息 25BP 推动利率中枢进一 步下行，虽然一季度总量降息落空可能性有所提升，但债市仍表现出较 ...

据环球网综合报道，据美国《华盛顿邮报》、"Mediaite"新闻网等媒体报道，美国总统特朗普当地时间1 月31日晚出席名流云集的"苜蓿草俱乐部"晚宴并发表讲话，其间他讲笑话，却多次遭遇冷场。 据介绍，特朗普讲了一些笑话但反响冷淡，现场多次陷入沉默。报道具体称，特朗普讲话中提到，自己 可能要提前结束演讲，因为他得去"看入侵格陵兰岛的行动"，随后承认这只是个玩笑。 出席 "苜蓿草俱乐部"晚宴后，特朗普在总统专机"空军一号"上和记者交谈（图源：环球网援引外媒） "我们不会入侵格陵兰岛，我们会买下它。"特朗普说，"我从来没打算让格陵兰岛成为第51个州。我想 让加拿大成为第51个州。格陵兰岛当第52个州，委内瑞拉可以是第53个。" 极目新闻综合环球网、新华社 （来源：极目新闻） 报道提到，特朗普还提到了他提名为下一任美联储主席的凯文·沃什，"如果他不降息，我就把他告到裤 子都不剩。"在停顿了一下后，特朗普又补充说，"我开玩笑的。" 《华盛顿邮报》称，当事后被记者问及这些言论时，特朗普回应说，"这是吐槽，这是喜剧之夜。"不过 他也补充说，他确实希望沃什能降息。 另据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普1月30日通过社交媒体宣布，提 ...

美国总统特朗普提名沃什(Kevin Warsh)任美联储主席，巴克莱早前发表报告评论，沃什较为鹰派，但有 助提升美联储独立性形象，以及较为克制的货币政策预期。巴克莱指沃什较为鹰派，理由是沃什自2011 年离开联美联储理事会后，长期批评美联储的量化宽松政策，显示其对货币政策立场偏向收紧、较不倾 向长期宽松，这与市场当时的鸽派预期形成对比。该行指，如果鲍威尔在5月主席任期结束后选择继续 留任理事(任期至2028年1月31日)，再加上沃什上任，美联储FOMC的鹰鸽派组成将难以大幅改变，特朗 普很难透过单一主席更换大幅转向鸽派，预期到2028年，鹰派和鸽派的比例将保持相对平衡。 ...

美股方面，三大股指小幅收跌，道琼斯工业平均指数跌0.36%，报48892.47点；标普500指数跌0.43%， 报6939.03点；纳斯达克指数跌0.94%，报23461.82点。 【财经要闻】 1、据新华社，2月1日出版的第3期《求是》杂志发表中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平 的重要文章《走好中国特色金融发展之路，建设金融强国》。文章指出，金融强国应当基于强大的经济 基础，具有领先世界的经济实力、科技实力和综合国力，同时具备一系列关键核心金融要素。一是拥有 强大的货币，在国际贸易投资和外汇市场广泛使用，具有全球储备货币地位。二是拥有强大的中央银 行，有能力做好货币政策调控和宏观审慎管理、及时有效防范化解系统性风险。三是拥有强大的金融机 构，运营效率高，抗风险能力强，门类齐全，具有全球布局能力和国际竞争力。四是拥有强大的国际金 融中心，能够吸引全球投资者，影响国际定价体系。五是拥有强大的金融监管，金融法治健全，在国际 金融规则制定中拥有强大话语权和影响力。六是拥有强大的金融人才队伍。 【市场数据】 1月30日收盘，上证综指跌0.96%，报4117.95点；科创50指数涨0.12%，报1509.4点 ...

Core Viewpoint - On January 30, gold prices experienced a significant reversal, marking the largest single-day decline in nearly 40 years after reaching a historical high the previous trading day [1] Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment has become polarized following the sharp decline in gold prices, with some early investors remaining calm due to unrealized gains, while others who did not enter the market feel relieved [2] - Discussions on investment platforms reflect anxiety, with topics such as whether to hold or sell amid the price drop gaining traction [2] - Some investors are taking a contrarian approach by gradually increasing their positions, indicating a complex emotional landscape among market participants [2] Factors Behind Price Decline - The sharp drop in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including profit-taking after a rapid increase of approximately 30% since the beginning of 2026 [3] - Increased margin requirements for gold futures trading have exacerbated the volatility, with exchanges raising margin ratios, leading to a chain reaction of selling [3] - The expectation of changes in monetary policy, particularly with the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, has added pressure on gold prices, as a stronger dollar negatively impacts gold [4] Institutional Perspectives - Various gold-themed ETFs have seen significant declines, with an average drop of over 7% on January 30, and some gold stock ETFs hitting their daily limit down [5] - Despite the recent volatility, there was a notable inflow of funds into related ETFs prior to the drop, indicating lingering optimism in the market [5] - Some institutions maintain a long-term bullish outlook on gold, citing factors such as ongoing de-dollarization, central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions, and inflation expectations as supportive for gold prices [6] - UBS has raised its gold price targets for March, June, and September 2026 from $5,000 to $6,200 per ounce, driven by stronger-than-expected demand [6]