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金信期货日刊-20250609
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 00:19
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - On June 6, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures market saw a significant increase, with the main contract rising nearly 4% and hitting a record high of 8,804 yuan/kg. The increase was driven by factors such as geopolitical risks, expectations of Fed rate cuts, growing industrial demand, and the undervaluation of silver relative to gold [3]. - The silver market remains uncertain. While geopolitical easing and a shift in Fed policy could curb price increases, long - term industrial demand from the new energy sector may support prices [4]. - The stock index is expected to continue a strong and volatile upward trend next Monday due to a phone call [7]. - Gold is in a short - term oscillatory pattern but is still bullish in the long run. It's advisable to buy on dips rather than chase the price [11][12]. - Iron ore is a strong black - series variety. Despite overvaluation risks due to weak reality, falling port inventories support the market, and a bullish and oscillatory view is appropriate [15][16]. - Glass needs the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy changes. Technically, it maintains a bullish and oscillatory view [17][18]. - Urea is expected to continue a weak adjustment in the short term, with a daily production of about 205,600 tons and an 87.23% operating rate, and slow agricultural demand [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Silver Futures - **Price Movement**: On June 6, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose nearly 4% to a record high of 8,804 yuan/kg [3]. - **Driving Factors**: Geopolitical risks, expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2025, increased industrial demand from the new energy sector, and the undervaluation of silver relative to gold [3]. - **Outlook**: Uncertainty exists. Short - term price increases may be curbed, but long - term industrial demand from new energy could support prices [4]. 3.2 Stock Index - **Market Outlook**: Expected to continue a strong and volatile upward trend next Monday due to a phone call [7]. 3.3 Gold - **Market Pattern**: Currently in a short - term oscillatory pattern, but bullish in the long run [12]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Buy on dips rather than chase the price [11]. 3.4 Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Despite overvaluation risks from weak reality, falling port inventories support the market, remaining a strong black - series variety [15][16]. - **Technical View**: A bullish and oscillatory view is appropriate as the support level was tested effectively today [15]. 3.5 Glass - **Market Condition**: Supply has no major cold - repair due to losses, high factory inventories, and weak downstream demand. It awaits real - estate stimulus or major policies [17][18]. - **Technical Outlook**: Maintains a bullish and oscillatory view with a high - closing positive line today [17]. 3.6 Urea - **Supply**: Domestic daily production is about 205,600 tons, with an operating rate of about 87.23% [19]. - **Demand**: Agricultural demand is slow, and downstream participation is limited [19]. - **Price Trend**: Expected to continue a weak adjustment in the short term [19].
贵金属新风口:白银狂飙9%,铂金能否年内冲击1200美元大关?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-08 03:49
Group 1 - The metal market has seen a simultaneous surge in silver and platinum prices, with silver reaching a 13-year high and platinum hitting a two-year high [1][3] - As of June 6, the spot silver price increased by 9.04% this week, reaching $35.9648 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose by 9.37% [1][3] - Platinum prices also reached $1152 per ounce, marking the highest level since March 2022, with a 1.7% intraday increase [3] Group 2 - The strong performance of precious metals has led to significant reactions in the domestic A-share market, with several silver-related stocks hitting the daily limit up [3] - The rise in silver and platinum prices is attributed to increased industrial demand for precious metals and heightened investor interest in safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainties [3][4] - The silver-to-gold ratio has surpassed 100, indicating that silver is significantly undervalued relative to gold, which is driving expectations for a price correction in silver [4] Group 3 - The industrial application of silver has notably increased, particularly in the photovoltaic industry, leading to a tight supply-demand situation [4] - Speculative funds are flowing into silver, increasing investment demand, as evidenced by rising non-commercial net long positions in COMEX silver futures [4] - Investors are advised to consider purchasing platinum and silver ETFs to participate in the current market trend, benefiting from low costs and flexible trading options [4]
沪银期货创出历史新高!白银、铂金大涨背后发生了什么?
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-06-06 12:15
Group 1 - Silver and platinum prices have surged, with silver reaching a high of $36.263 per ounce, the highest since February 2012, and platinum hitting $1172.59 per ounce, the highest in nearly two years [1][2] - Year-to-date, silver has increased by approximately 24% and platinum by 28%, comparable to gold's performance [1] - The rise in precious metals is attributed to geopolitical tensions, fluctuating tariff policies, and recovering demand, alongside technical factors driving price increases [1][2] Group 2 - The gold-silver ratio reached a historical high of 106 when gold prices surged to $3500 per ounce, prompting hedge funds to shift positions from gold to silver [2] - Historical trends indicate that when the gold-silver ratio exceeds 80, silver has a 70% probability of experiencing a price increase, with expectations of returning to a more reasonable range of 60-70 [2] - Strong physical silver demand from India and recovering platinum demand from China are contributing to the market's upward momentum [2][3] Group 3 - Economic recovery is expected to significantly boost industrial demand for silver, which is essential in various sectors such as electronics, photovoltaics, and automotive manufacturing [3] - Silver's role in clean energy technologies provides a solid fundamental support for its price increase [3] - Current market analysis suggests that silver's upward trend is likely to continue until a significant risk event disrupts the price trajectory [3]