Group 1: Market Overview - Copper prices have shown a narrow fluctuation since May, with market sentiment being cautious due to a tight supply from mines and weakening demand [2] - The macroeconomic environment lacks clear drivers, with potential tariff increases on copper following the U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, causing temporary price spikes [3] - The U.S. economy shows signs of stability with improved GDP and employment data, but concerns over fiscal deficits and credit risks keep market sentiment cautious [3] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Global copper mine production in March was 1.969 million tons, up 11.4% month-on-month and 3.68% year-on-year, with Chile's production at a four-year high [4] - Supply disruptions are noted, including a temporary halt in operations at the Kakula copper mine due to an earthquake, while other mines remain unaffected [4] - Domestic processing fees for copper remain low, with a recent figure of -$43.29 per ton, indicating ongoing supply tightness [5] Group 3: Production and Demand - Global refined copper production for January to March was 7.058 million tons, a 3.17% year-on-year increase, driven by growth in China, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and India [6] - China's electrolytic copper production in May reached 1.1383 million tons, a 12.86% year-on-year increase, but a decline in production is expected due to tight copper ore supply [6] - Demand from downstream sectors is weakening, with reduced operating rates in copper rod, pipe, and plate manufacturers, while cable manufacturers maintain higher rates due to existing orders [8] Group 4: Inventory and Pricing - LME copper inventory has decreased rapidly, with total stocks at 132,400 tons, raising concerns about short-term supply risks [7] - Domestic copper inventory is low, and the spot premium has decreased, indicating a tightening supply situation [9] - The market is experiencing a tug-of-war between tight supply and weakening demand, leading to expectations of continued price fluctuations in the short term [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Neutral; Arbitrage: Suspended; Option strategy: short put @ 74,000 yuan/ton [6][7] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to be in a volatile pattern, with an operating range of approximately 75,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton. Due to high copper prices and month - to - month spreads, downstream procurement is cautious, and inventory may still increase slightly. With the release of some delivery goods this week, it is difficult to maintain high premiums [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data 1.1 Futures Quotes - On May 22, 2025, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 78,010 yuan/ton and closed at 77,920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.23% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 77,730 yuan/ton and closed at 77,820 yuan/ton, a 0.12% decrease from the afternoon close [1] 1.2 Spot Situation - On May 22, SMM's 1 electrolytic copper spot was at a premium of 110 - 160 yuan/ton to the current 2506 contract, with an average premium of 135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Low - priced goods had good trading volume. Currently, low - priced goods have been mostly purchased, and warehouse receipts have significantly decreased, but warehouse inventory has not decreased as expected. The premium is expected to have limited upward movement [2] 1.3 Important Information Summaries - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The Trump tax reform bill passed the House of Representatives and is to be reviewed by the Senate. The US Senate voted to terminate California's ban on the sale of fuel - powered vehicles. Fed Governor Waller said that if tariffs decrease, the Fed may cut interest rates in the second half of 2025. Iran vowed to respond "devastatingly" to any Israeli aggression [3] - **Domestic**: The central bank will conduct 500 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations on May 23 [3] - **Mine End**: NGEx Minerals announced a new discovery in the Lunahuasi copper - gold project in Argentina, with high - grade copper - gold porphyry systems. Solaris Resources and Royal Gold reached a 200 million - dollar financing agreement for the Warintza copper - gold project in Ecuador [4] - **Smelting and Import**: In March 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.5135 million tons, consumption was 2.493 million tons, with a surplus of 20,500 tons. From January to March, the production was 7.2832 million tons, consumption was 7.0125 million tons, with a surplus of 270,800 tons [5] - **Consumption**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated narrowly, and downstream consumption had limited improvement. Downstream enterprises mainly made just - in - time purchases at low prices [5] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 1,925 tons to 166,525 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 9,464 tons to 31,754 tons. On May 19, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.399 million tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from the previous week [5] 2. Tables and Figures - The report provides 10 figures and 1 table, including TC prices, SMM1 copper premium quotes, price differences between refined and scrap copper, copper import profits and losses, and various inventory data [8] 3. Spot and Warehouse Receipt Data Table - The table shows data on copper prices, premiums, inventory, warehouse receipts, arbitrage, and import profitability for different time points (today, yesterday, last week, and one month ago) [29][30]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Neutral; Arbitrage: Suspended; Option strategy: short put @ 74,000 yuan/ton [6] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Overall, domestic inventories have increased since last week due to high copper prices and month spreads, and cautious downstream procurement. With some delivery goods flowing out this week, it's difficult to maintain high premiums and discounts. With limited new downstream orders, inventories may still increase slightly. Considering the rapid changes in macro - factors and the market's digestion of the US reaching trade agreements with multiple countries, copper prices are expected to be in a volatile pattern, ranging from 75,000 yuan/ton to 79,500 yuan/ton [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On May 21, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 77,880 yuan/ton and closed at 78,100 yuan/ton, up 0.72% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 77,750 yuan/ton and closed at 77,550 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - Yesterday morning, spot market quotes continued to decline. The price difference between flat - water copper and good copper was significant. Mainstream brands' premiums were reported at 230 - 260 yuan/ton. Downstream buyers were active in bargain - hunting. Some holders cut prices to 160 yuan/ton to rush for transactions, while brands like Xiangguang still quoted 220 - 240 yuan/ton. Jinchuan large - board premium remained firm at 300 yuan/ton. Non - registered copper was generally quoted around 100 yuan. The market trading sentiment was divided, with the shipping index dropping to 3.12 and the procurement index rising to 3.26. It's expected that imported goods will suppress premiums tomorrow, and if it falls below 100 yuan/ton, stronger procurement demand may be triggered [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical Aspects**: The demand for the 20 - year US Treasury bond auction was weak, and the yields of 20 - year and 30 - year US Treasury bonds rose above 5%, causing a sharp decline in US stocks. In May, the Fed started buying long - term bonds. The US House Speaker reached an agreement on the $40,000 state and local tax deduction limit, but the voting time for the tax bill is undecided. Geopolitically, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said he would fully control Gaza and reserve the right to act unilaterally against Iran. Many countries condemned the Israeli army for firing at diplomatic missions in the West Bank. Two Israeli sources said Israel is preparing to strike Iran's nuclear facilities quickly if US - Iran negotiations break down. Domestically, China and the ten ASEAN countries completed the negotiation of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 [3] - **Mine End**: On May 21, Central Asia Metals (CAML) announced to acquire New World Resources (NWR) for A$185 million to include the Antler copper project in Arizona, USA. CAML will acquire all shares at A$0.05 per share in cash and hold 100% equity in the Antler project after the transaction. The Antler project is a high - grade volcanic - hosted massive sulfide copper deposit. A pre - feasibility study (PFS) in 2025 outlined a 12 - year mine life, with an average annual payable copper - equivalent production of about 30,000 tons from the 2nd to the 11th year. The total mineral resource estimate is 14.2 million tons, with a copper - equivalent grade of 3.8%. The after - tax net present value is estimated to be $498 million at a 7% discount rate, the internal rate of return is over 30%, and the payback period is three years. The NWR board recommends shareholders to vote in favor of the transaction, and project licensing is in progress [4] - **Smelting and Import**: On May 20, Antofagasta started mid - year negotiations with Chinese and Japanese smelters. Due to the tight supply of copper concentrates, Chinese smelters may require a "zero - dollar" processing fee (TC/RCs) in the second half of 2025, a 100% drop from the 2024 benchmark price of $80/ton and may even turn negative. Antofagasta's processing fee with Chinese smelters in December last year was $21.25/ton. China's copper smelting capacity expansion has intensified the supply shortage. BMI data shows that China's smelting capacity is expected to reach 12.78 million tons in 2025, an 8% increase from last year and a 25% increase from 2021 [5] - **Consumption**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated narrowly. Near the end of the month, downstream consumption boost was limited. Due to some processing enterprises' rush to export, market demand was relatively stable. But with average overall downstream orders, downstream enterprises mainly made just - in - time purchases [5] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 3,575 tons to 168,825 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 4,520 tons to 41,218 tons. On May 19, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 139,200 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons from the previous week [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US leads to expectations of rushed exports, but the traditional consumption off - season is approaching. The increase in China's electrolytic copper social inventory may cause the furnace copper price to fluctuate widely. It is recommended that investors wait and see, and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of furnace copper, London copper, and US copper [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - On May 21, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,100 yuan, up 560 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 71,129 lots; the open interest was 163,320 lots, down 2,768 lots; the inventory was 41,218 tons, down 4,520 tons. The average price of SMN 1 electrolytic copper was 78,460 yuan, up 120 yuan [2] - The basis of Shanghai copper and spot premiums and discounts showed different changes, with the furnace copper basis down 440 yuan to 360 yuan, and spot premiums and discounts in different regions also changing [2] - The price difference between near - month and far - month contracts of Shanghai copper decreased to varying degrees, with the difference between near - month and continuous - first contracts down 60 yuan to 290 yuan [2] - The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price on May 20, 2025 was 9,554.5 dollars, and relevant inventory and price difference data also showed certain changes [2] - On May 21, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures was 4.6575 dollars, down 0.01 dollars from the previous day, and the total inventory was 173,023 tons, up 2,643 tons [2] Industry News - In April 2025, China's copper enameled wire export volume was 13,217.28 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.28% and a month - on - month increase of 5.67%. From January to April, the cumulative export volume was 45,256.14 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 27% [2] - On May 21, Central Asia Metals (CAML) announced a $119 million acquisition of Australian Mer World Resources (MR.), with the project expected to produce 30,000 tons of copper equivalent annually and start production around 2026 [2] - Ivanhoe Mines suspended operations at the Kaooor - Kakula copper mine due to earthquake activity on May 10, and operations may resume soon as seismic activity has significantly decreased [2] - Global copper mining giant Antofagasta initiated mid - year negotiations with Chinese and Japanese smelters. Smelters may demand a "0 - dollar" processing fee (TC/RC) in the second half of 2025, a 100% increase from the 2024 benchmark price [2] Production and Supply - The expansion project of the copper oxide ore at ACC Metals' Vədi.tepe multi - metal mine will start in the first quarter of 2026, with an initial annual output of 25,000 tons [3] - Freeport - McMoRan Indonesia was allowed to export 1.27 million tons of copper concentrate within 6 months but will be subject to higher export taxes [3] - The second - phase 150,000 - ton production capacity of the copper mine in Ecuador under Jiangxi Copper may be put into production in the second half of 2025 [3] - The second - phase 200,000 - ton/day construction project of Julong Copper Mine may be put into production by the end of 2026 [3] - The maintenance capacity of domestic smelters in May may increase month - on - month, which may lead to a decrease in the production and import of domestic crude copper in June [3] - The Kaooor - Kakula copper smelter may be completed and put into production in June 2025, with an annual output of 600,000 tons of anode copper [3] - The new anode copper production capacity of Yimen Copper Mine increased from 100,000 to 150,000 tons and was successfully put into production on April 12 [3] - The second - phase 150,000 - ton cathode copper project of Jiangxi Copper Baoyuan will start construction in Guizhou and reach a capacity of 260,000 tons after completion [3] - The second - phase 200,000 - ton project of Jinchuan Group's 400,000 - ton intelligent electrolytic copper project produced the first batch of high - purity cathode copper in March [3] Market Inventory - China's bonded - area electrolytic copper inventory decreased compared with last week, while the social inventory increased; LME's electrolytic copper inventory decreased, and COMEX's inventory increased [3] Downstream Market - High copper prices affected new orders, with the capacity utilization rate of China's refined copper (recycled copper rod) industry increasing; the raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper enterprises decreased (increased), and that of recycled copper rod enterprises remained flat (decreased) [3] - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper wire and cable industry decreased, and the order volume of copper foil packaging increased (slightly decreased) [3] - The capacity utilization rate of China's brass rod industry increased [3] - The easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US and other factors may lead to a month - on - month decline in the capacity utilization rate, production, import, and export of domestic copper processing enterprises [3]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing fluctuations with a slight decline in prices, influenced by macroeconomic factors and changes in supply and demand dynamics [1] Market Performance - On May 15, 2025, the main copper contract opened at 78,900 CNY/ton and closed at 77,870 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.36% from the previous close [1] - The night session saw the contract open at 78,160 CNY/ton and close at 78,490 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.13% [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic supply is expected to increase as the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) copper warehouse receipts rose by over 20,000 tons to more than 50,000 tons [1] - Peru's copper exports showed a recovery in Q1, with a total export value of 6.62 billion USD, marking a 23% increase year-on-year [1] - The U.S. is projected to export 600,000 tons of scrap copper in 2024, with over half going to China [1] Price and Inventory Trends - The LME warehouse receipts decreased by 4,075 tons to 184,650 tons, while SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 10,466 tons to 60,535 tons [1] - As of May 12, the domestic market's electrolytic copper inventory was 132,000 tons, a change of 8,900 tons from the previous week [1] Strategic Recommendations - The strategy for copper is cautiously bullish, with recommendations to buy on dips for hedging purposes [1] - The market is currently characterized by a backwardation structure, leading to weakened consumption as new orders remain subdued [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The real - estate market is gradually stabilizing, and the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide has increased year - on - year. In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, and the new order index was 49.2%, a 2.6 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing market demand [4][39]. - Global refined copper supply and consumption are both weak, with an overall slight surplus in copper supply and demand. Chinese copper smelters' TC and RC continue to decline significantly, and Chinese refined copper production keeps growing with an expanding growth rate recently. The spread between refined and scrap copper is gradually narrowing. Copper product output decreased month - on - month but continued to grow year - on - year. The terminal consumption market continued the positive trend [6][39]. - Shanghai copper inventory has decreased significantly. LME copper inventory has decreased slightly, while COMEX copper inventory has increased significantly. Overall, copper prices may show a volatile trend [7][39]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In early April, affected by US tariff policies, the price of the main Shanghai copper futures contract dropped significantly. As uncertainties were gradually released, the copper price rebounded and entered a volatile trend at the end of the month. The price range was about 71,140 - 78,480 yuan/ton. The price trend of the LME copper futures contract was similar to that of the main Shanghai copper futures contract, with an operating range of about 8,105 - 9,479 US dollars/ton [8]. 2. Macroeconomic Environment 2.1 Real - estate Data Continued to Stabilize - From January to March, national real - estate development investment was 1.9904 trillion yuan, a 9.9% year - on - year decrease; residential investment was 1.5133 trillion yuan, a 9.0% decrease. Real - estate development enterprises' housing construction area, new construction area, completion area, new commercial housing sales area, and sales volume all showed varying degrees of decline, but the decline in sales area and volume narrowed [12][14]. 2.2 The Total Profit of Industrial Enterprises above the Designated Size Nationwide Increased Year - on - Year - From January to March, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 1.50936 trillion yuan, a 0.8% year - on - year increase. Among them, state - owned holding enterprises' profit decreased by 1.4%, joint - stock enterprises' profit increased by 0.1%, foreign and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan - invested enterprises' profit increased by 2.8%, and private enterprises' profit decreased by 0.3%. Profits in different industries showed different trends [18][19]. 3. Supply Side 3.1 Rapid Growth in Refined Copper Production - In February 2025, global primary refined copper production was 1,822 thousand tons, recycled refined copper production was 378 thousand tons, and the total supply was 2,200 thousand tons, while consumption was 2,139 thousand tons, with an increase of 61 thousand tons. As of March 2025, monthly refined copper production was 1.248 million tons, an increase of 0.006 million tons from the previous month and an 8.6% year - on - year increase. As of April 29, 2025, the refined copper price in Shanghai Wumaom was 78,090 yuan/ton, and the scrap copper price in Foshan, Guangdong was 71,700 yuan/ton, with a refined - scrap spread of - 780 yuan/ton [23]. 4. Demand Side 4.1 Copper Product Output Increased Year - on - Year - In March 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.1252 million tons, showing year - on - year growth. The monthly investment in power grid construction was 95.6 billion yuan, a 24.8% year - on - year increase [31]. 5. Inventory Side 5.1 Shanghai Copper Inventory Decreased Significantly - As of April 30, 2025, the cathode copper inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 89,307 tons, a decrease of 27,446 tons from the previous week. As of April 28, 2025, LME copper inventory was 202,800 tons, a decrease of 650 tons from the previous trading day, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 35.26%. As of April 29, 2025, COMEX copper inventory was 137,759 tons, an increase of 2,615 tons from the previous trading day. As of April 28, 2025, the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 95,800 tons, a decrease of 15,400 tons from the previous week [35]. 6. Outlook 6.1 Analysis of Price Trend Factors - Factors affecting copper prices include Chinese economic policies (real - estate market stabilization, industrial enterprise profit growth), supply (slight surplus of global refined copper, growing copper production), demand (accelerated power grid investment, year - on - year growth of copper product output), and inventory (significant decrease in Shanghai copper inventory) [38]. 6.2 Outlook - The real - estate market continued to stabilize, and the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide increased year - on - year. Manufacturing market demand declined. Global refined copper supply and consumption were weak, with a slight surplus. Chinese refined copper production continued to grow, and the refined - scrap copper spread gradually narrowed. Copper product output decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The terminal consumption market continued to improve. Shanghai copper inventory decreased, LME copper inventory decreased slightly, and COMEX copper inventory increased significantly. Overall, copper prices may show a volatile trend [39].