Core Viewpoint - The domestic zinc market has experienced an upward trend in prices, driven by macroeconomic factors and increased trading activity in related metals [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai zinc futures contract (2603) opened at 24,715 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 24,880 CNY/ton and closing at 24,725 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of 160 CNY or 0.65% [1]. - The trading volume for the Shanghai zinc contract was 207,921 lots, an increase of 34,645 lots, while open interest rose by 1,507 lots to 121,627 lots [1]. - The latest price for London zinc was reported at 3,292.5 USD, up by 23.5 USD [1]. Group 2: Price Statistics - The ccmn comprehensive zinc price for 0 zinc was reported at 24,670-24,770 CNY/ton, with an average of 24,720 CNY, an increase of 70 CNY [1]. - The 1 zinc price ranged from 24,590 to 24,690 CNY/ton, averaging 24,640 CNY, also up by 70 CNY [1]. - In Guangdong, the 0 zinc price was reported at 24,440-24,740 CNY/ton, averaging 24,590 CNY, an increase of 100 CNY [1]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global zinc market deficit widened from 2,800 tons in October to 7,700 tons in November, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) [3]. - Domestic zinc supply is affected by winter production halts in northern mines, although the recent recovery in import zinc concentrate margins has reopened import windows [3]. - The overall trading atmosphere in the domestic market is stable, with a slight increase in transaction volumes, although demand remains cautious due to seasonal weather conditions [3].

需求阶段性走强，宏观继续推升锌价 中泰期货· 2026年1月26日 中泰期货研究所 王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 目 录 CONTENTS 1 02 价格 01 综述 03 供给：锌矿、锌锭 04 需求：加工、终端 05 库存 06 其他 综述 综述 | 产业数据 | | 项目 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 上期 | 示期 | 环比 | 环比率 | 综述 | | 在锌矿紧缺背景下,国内锌精矿加工费跌势持续,国产加工费跌至1500元/金 | | 锌精矿国产TC(元/金属吨) | 1500 | 1500 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 属吨后企稳。 | | 尽管随着前期国内冶炼厂减产和进口锌精矿比价的修复,国内锌精矿市场的供 | | | | | | | 需情绪近期有所回暖,但目前国产锌精矿加工费仅暂时出现止跌现象,并未发 进口矿贸易市场上,临近年末,市场矿贸易商多继续休假,周度进口锌精矿报 盘较少,整体成交较为清淡。 | | | | 国内锌精矿产量(月度) ...

基本面方面，1月21日消息，国际铅锌研究组织（ILZSG）数据显示，11月全球锌市场缺口从10月的 2800吨扩大至7700吨。国内方面，当前北方部分锌矿仍处于冬季停产状态，不过近期进口锌精矿亏损大 幅收窄并转为正值，矿进口窗口在时隔半年后重新开启。另外，目前冶炼厂不含硫酸和副产品的亏损扩 大，12月国内冶炼厂减产规模进一步扩大。随着国内冶炼厂减产以及进口锌精矿比价的修复，国内锌精 矿市场供需情绪近期有所回暖。但目前国产锌精矿加工费仅暂时止跌，尚未出现实质性反弹。消费端， 环保预警解除后，前期受限企业恢复生产，然而北方天气已进入严寒阶段，终端采购积极性不高，企业 对后续需求及春节前补货备库持谨慎态度，这在一定程度上限制了锌价上方空间。 整体来看，期市氛围回暖、周边品种普涨对锌价形成提振，且沪锌社库小幅去化提供了支撑，短期锌价 将呈现偏强震荡态势，今日现锌价格或上涨。 （长江有色金属网cjys.cn研发团队 0592-5668838） 【ccmn.cn摘要】锡镍领涨带动有色市场，隔周伦锌随板块收涨 1.11%；期市氛围回暖、周边品种普涨 提振锌价，且沪锌社库小幅去化提供支撑，今现锌或上涨。 【ccmn.cn锌期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking behavior in the spot market. However, social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period in the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported ores continues to rise, smelting profits are increasing, and smelting enthusiasm persists. The supply-side is expected to increase. Even during the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation is expected to continue, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are not met, zinc prices will face significant pressure. Zinc prices may be relatively weak even when other non-ferrous metals are strong, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$40.12/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 24,310 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 55 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 110 yuan/ton to 24,310 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 20 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 24,240 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -15 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On January 22, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,350 yuan/ton, closed at 24,400 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the day was 131,273 lots, and the open interest was 118,558 lots. The highest price during the day reached 24,485 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 24,225 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of January 22, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 118,800 tons, a decrease of 3,200 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 111,700 tons, a decrease of 150 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint - The report expects Shanghai zinc to undergo a volatile adjustment, with the price expected to be in the range of 24,200 - 24,700 yuan/ton. Upstream zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines are reducing production at the end of the year. Domestic smelters' competition for domestic ore procurement has increased, and processing fees at home and abroad have significantly decreased. Domestic smelter profits are shrinking, and production is expected to continue to be restricted. The export window may close again. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season, with the real estate sector dragging down, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors weakening. However, there are some bright spots in the automotive sector due to policy support. Downstream purchasers mainly buy on - demand at low prices. Recently, zinc prices have fallen, downstream procurement has improved, domestic inventories have decreased, LME zinc inventories are stable, and the spot premium remains low. Technically, positions have decreased, prices have adjusted, and the bullish sentiment is cautious [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,400 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the 02 - 03 month contract spread is - 45 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME three - month zinc quote is 3,175 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars. The total Shanghai zinc open interest is 218,500 lots, down 117 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 2,533 lots, up 1,407 lots. Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories are 76,311 tons, up 2,459 tons; LME inventories are 111,850 tons, down 450 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 24,310 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 24,340 yuan/ton, up 630 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is - 90 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread is - 40.12 US dollars/ton, up 3.45 US dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,140 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, down 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 20,300 tons, down 27,600 tons. The global zinc mine production value is 1.0666 million tons, down 31,000 tons. Domestic refined zinc production is 665,000 tons, up 40,000 tons. Zinc ore imports are 340,900 tons, down 164,500 tons [3] 3.4产业情况 - Refined zinc imports are 18,836.76 tons, down 3,840.75 tons; refined zinc exports are 8,518.67 tons, up 6,040.84 tons. Social zinc inventories are 1.122 million tons, up 58,000 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, up 20,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.42 million tons, up 140,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 534.567 million square meters, up 43.9531 million square meters; the housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, up 37.3212 million square meters. Automobile production is 3.519 million vehicles, up 240,000 vehicles; air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, down 3.8908 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 22.25%, down 2.49 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 22.26%, down 2.48 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 23.51%, up 0.05 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.74%, up 0.02 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - Trump's Davos speech: Greenland is a core US security interest, the US will not take it by force and seeks immediate negotiations. Later, Trump said that the US reached a "framework" agreement on Greenland with NATO and will not impose tariffs on Europe and Canada for the time being. Canadian Prime Minister Carney gave a speech saying that the rules - based order is dead, and middle - power countries should unite to resist coercion from some major powers. Macron called on Europe to like respect rather than bullying and introduce Chinese investment in key areas. The European Parliament announced an indefinite freeze on the review of the EU - US trade agreement. Trump said he may have selected a person to be the Fed chairman and hopes he is like Greenspan, and again hinted that Hassett is "out" [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures showed a pattern of rising first and then pulling back, with a weekly increase of 3.25% and an amplitude of 7.32%. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will be adjusted strongly, with the support level of MA5 to be focused on, and the price range is estimated to be between 24,500 - 25,700 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures rose first and then pulled back, with a weekly increase of 3.25% and an amplitude of 7.32%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 24,750 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomically, the central bank of China decided to lower the re - loan and rediscount rates by 25 basis points, indicating that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. In the United States, the number of initial jobless claims last week unexpectedly dropped to 198,000, the lowest since November last year, and the US dollar rebounded to a more than one - month high. Fundamentally, the import volume of upstream zinc ore is at a high level, but domestic zinc mines are reducing production at the end of the year. The competition among domestic smelters for purchasing domestic ores has intensified, and the processing fees at home and abroad have both dropped significantly. The profits of domestic smelters have shrunk, and it is expected that production will continue to be restricted. Recently, the price of LME zinc has pulled back, the Shanghai - London ratio has rebounded, and the export window may close again. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening, while the automotive and other fields have some bright spots due to policy support. The downstream market mainly purchases on - demand at low prices. Recently, the zinc price has risen rapidly, downstream purchases are scarce, the spot premium has been lowered, and domestic inventories have decreased slightly. LME zinc inventories have remained stable, and the spot premium has remained at a low level. Technically, the position has increased and the price is strong, with a strong bullish atmosphere, breaking through the upper edge of the upward channel [4]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - **Price Changes**: As of January 16, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai zinc was 24,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 780 yuan/ton or 3.25% compared with January 9, 2026. As of January 15, 2026, the closing price of LME zinc was 3,314.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 179.5 US dollars/ton or 5.73% compared with January 9, 2026 [7]. - **Net Position Adjustment**: As of January 16, 2026, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc futures was adjusted. The position volume of Shanghai zinc was 252,985 lots, an increase of 34,932 lots or 16.02% compared with January 9, 2026 [13]. - **Price Spreads**: As of January 16, 2026, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 825 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,185 yuan/ton compared with January 9, 2026. The lead - zinc futures price spread was 7,275 yuan/ton, an increase of 660 yuan/ton compared with January 9, 2026 [18]. - **Premium and Discount**: As of January 16, 2026, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 24,810 yuan/ton, an increase of 800 yuan/ton or 3.33% compared with January 9, 2026. The spot discount was 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton compared with last week. As of January 15, 2026, the price difference between the near - month and 3 - month contracts of LME zinc was - 27.62 US dollars/ton, an increase of 14.95 US dollars/ton compared with January 8, 2026 [23]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of January 15, 2026, the LME refined zinc inventory was 106,700 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons or 1.2% compared with January 8, 2026. As of January 16, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventory was 76,311 tons, an increase of 2,459 tons or 3.33% compared with last week. As of January 15, 2026, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 106,400 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons or 6.09% compared with January 8, 2026 [26]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Zinc Ore Production and Import**: In October 2025, the global zinc ore production was 1.1009 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.21% and a year - on - year increase of 4.87%. In November 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 519,018.96 tons, a month - on - month increase of 52.31% and a year - on - year increase of 14.06% [32]. 3.3.2 Supply Side - **Global Refined Zinc Supply Shortage**: In October 2025, the global refined zinc production was 1.2187 million tons, an increase of 108,400 tons or 9.76% compared with the same period last year. The global refined zinc consumption was 1.2193 million tons, an increase of 44,200 tons or 3.76% compared with the same period last year. The global refined zinc shortage was 600 tons, compared with a shortage of 64,800 tons in the same period last year. According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) report, in September 2024, the global zinc market supply - demand balance was - 35,700 tons [37][38]. - **Expected Decline in Refined Zinc Production**: In November 2025, the zinc production was 654,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative zinc output was 6.842 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5% [41]. - **Significant Increase in Refined Zinc Exports**: In November 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 18,229.93 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.15%. The export volume of refined zinc was 42,815.55 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8748.45% [45]. 3.3.3 Downstream - **Galvanized Sheet (Strip) Exports Stabilized and Rebounded**: From January to November 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 982,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.63%. In November 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 36,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.91%. The export volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 317,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% [48][49]. - **Decline in New Housing Starts**: From January to November 2025, the new housing start area was 534.567 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.58%. The housing completion area was 394.5393 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.58%. From January to November 2025, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 851.4519 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%. Among them, personal mortgage loans were 117.8591 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.1% [54][55]. - **Decline in Infrastructure Investment Growth Rate**: In November 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.9, a decrease of 0.52 compared with last month and a decrease of 0.61 compared with the same period last year. From January to November 2025, the infrastructure investment increased by 0.13% year - on - year [60][61]. - **Increase in Refrigerator and Air - Conditioner Production**: In November 2025, the refrigerator production was 9.442 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative refrigerator production was 99.342 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. In November 2025, the air - conditioner production was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.4%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 245.361 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% [63]. - **Stable and Improving Automobile Production and Sales**: In December 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 3,272,229 units, a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%. The production volume of Chinese automobiles was 3,295,965 units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.09% [68].

文 | 柳晓怡 来源 | 紫金天风有色研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 周四早间消息，LME暂停了韩国锌业KZ/YP锌及铅的交割业务。盘面受消息影响，一度上冲，沪锌 主力涨超25000元/吨一线，最高涨幅达4.21%。 据官方回复，KZ已于去年提交了其供应链责任报告，但某些方面未能达到LME的监管要求。KZ已提 交改进计划并正等待反馈，有望在4月14日前完成最终定稿。 我们认为，本身作为高升水品牌，KZ前往LME交割的货源并不多，另外，该规定或更多影响LME市 场与其他市场价差，并不会直接改变锌市场供需。 近期不管是技术面还是基本面，锌价都呈现超买/高估状态。 基本面来看，需求端，目前有色基本都面临高价对需求的抑制的问题。国内自元旦以来锌下游开工 低于季节性表现，自上周四以来现货升水持续下调。供应端，锌矿进口窗口持续敞口，到港量环比 显著回升，原料端宽松预期逐步升温。尽管锌矿加工费仍处于历史低位，但锌价中枢上移已对冶炼 厂利润形成实质性修复，当前仅硫酸副产品贡献的利润已推动炼厂盈利逼近盈亏平衡线。在此背景 下，需求端尚未形成有效支撑，资金面止盈诉求或逐步升温，成为短期锌价上行的重要制约因素。 因此 ...

Report Information - Report Title: LME no longer accepts zinc ingots from two South Korean companies, zinc price surges briefly [1] - Author: Sun Fangfang [1] - Date: January 15, 2026 [1] - Institution: Guotou Futures Research Institute [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The news that LME no longer accepts two South Korean enterprises' zinc ingot brands leads to a short - term rise in zinc prices, but it won't fundamentally affect the supply - demand balance. The short - term price increase is mainly sentiment - driven. Considering the current supply and demand situation, the zinc price at the beginning of 2026 may be the annual high, and relevant strategies are recommended [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Content News and Impact - Since April 14, 2026, LME will no longer accept the warehouse receipt registration of zinc brand KZ - SHG 99.995 and lead brand KA - LEAD produced by Korea Zinc Co., Ltd., and zinc brand YP - SHG produced by Young Poong Corporation. As of the morning close on January 15, 2026, the opening of LME zinc was higher, driving SHFE zinc to follow the increase. The LME zinc price reached up to $3355/ton, and the main SHFE zinc contract hit a high of 25,645 yuan/ton [2] Reasons for the Recent Strong Zinc Price - The export window is closed, overseas smelter increments are hard to materialize, and LME inventory has been stable at 100,000 tons recently. The news of LME not accepting the two South Korean companies' zinc ingot brands further stimulates the price increase, with the outer market driving the domestic market to follow [3] - Domestic smelters continue to cut production. At the beginning of the 15th Five - Year Plan, national subsidies continue. Zinc demand has strong short - term resilience, and domestic funds are actively long [3] - The aluminum price once exceeded the zinc price, and the low valuation of zinc attracted capital attention [3] - On the last trading day of the near - term SHFE zinc contracts, some funds may push up the delivery - month price, and the spread between the 01 - 02 contracts once exceeded 400 yuan/ton [3] 后市展望 - The zinc valuation has been rapidly revised up. SHFE zinc has recovered all losses in 2025, and the outer - market price has exceeded the 2024 high. Currently, the zinc concentrate supply is in a tight balance, and the domestic smelter's production cut is much less than in 2024. Although there is an expectation of a low - level recovery in consumption, the negative feedback of high prices on consumption is obvious. There is great pressure for a correction at the 25,500 yuan/ton level. In 2026, the production of large mines in China will gradually be released, and the global zinc concentrate supply growth rate is expected to be 4.8%, higher than the global zinc consumption growth rate of 2%. There is a possibility that the high price of SHFE zinc at the beginning of the year will be the annual high [4] Strategy - The volatility of SHFE zinc has risen sharply, the IV of out - of - the - money call options exceeds 40%, and there are only 11 trading days left until the expiration of the near - term options. It is recommended to sell ZN2602 - C - 27000. Entities are advised to conduct short - hedging at high prices, and it is recommended to short zinc in a unilateral operation [4]

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that zinc prices are showing a strong trend, despite a decrease in downstream orders and procurement enthusiasm in the spot market [3][10] Group 1: Important Data - LME zinc spot premium is at -19.35 USD/ton, while SMM Shanghai zinc spot price has changed by 240 CNY/ton to 24,570 CNY/ton, with a premium of 50 CNY/ton [2][9] - As of January 14, 2026, SMM zinc ingot inventory totals 118,300 tons, a decrease of 20 tons from the previous period, and LME zinc inventory is at 106,725 tons, down by 175 tons from the previous trading day [2][9] Group 2: Market Analysis - The zinc price is currently strong, but the spot market is experiencing weaker downstream orders and lower procurement enthusiasm, leading to a slight decline in spot premiums [3][10] - Smelters are seeing a slight increase in raw material inventory, which is affecting the procurement enthusiasm for domestic ore, while the import ore treatment charge (TC) continues to decline [3][10] - The overall profit for smelters is difficult to restore, and there is a possibility that first-quarter production may fall short of expectations, which could lead to a continued decrease in supply pressure [3][10] Group 3: Strategy - The strategy for trading is cautiously bullish, indicating a positive outlook on zinc prices despite current market conditions [4][11] Group 4: Arbitrage - The arbitrage strategy is neutral, suggesting a balanced approach to trading in the current market environment [5][12]

基本面方面，供应端，现有锌价利润刺激矿端投产，增量主要集中在国内。火烧云项目成为影响锌市供 需结构的关键因素，内外原料环境进一步分化，国内冶炼增量潜力大于海外。12月国内部分锌矿山开展 冬季常规检修，锌精矿加工费持续低位，国产矿供应紧张，冶炼厂抢购意愿强烈，部分市场参与者预计 下月国内锌矿加工费将进一步下行。预计2026年一季度TC博弈阶段，不排除出现超预期减产，这或成 为推动锌价上行的催化剂。需求端，1月国内终端企业赶工交付，锌需求有增量预期，沪锌社库连续七 周下降。截至12月31日，上期所库存数据显示，沪锌周度库存续降3170吨至69793吨，创4个月新低，为 锌价提供支撑。但终端消费表现平淡，锌锭出口窗口或偶有开启，进口窗口开启难度较大，且国内地产 疲软制约镀锌、压铸锌消费，目前增长仍依赖外销订单。海外需求在降息预期及基建投资支撑下有望温 和复苏。今日现货市场成交温和上升，持货商高报升水出货，下游按需入场，交投平稳，整体活跃度一 般。 综合来看，锌价反弹仍存压力，短期或仍受宏观面主导，预计沪锌价格核心运行区间在23000 - 24200 元/吨。 （长江有色金属网cjys.cn研发团队 0592-566 ...