Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking behavior in the spot market. However, social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period of the past five years. The spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported mines continues to rise, leading to higher smelting profits and sustained smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase. Even during the peak consumption season, the inventory accumulation in China is still expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend. Attention should be paid to the impact of overseas inventories. [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is $90.60 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 230 yuan/ton to 23,470 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 70 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 230 yuan/ton to 23,390 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -10 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 210 yuan/ton to 23,380 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -20 yuan/ton. [1] Futures Market - On December 15, 2025, the main contract of SHFE zinc opened at 23,480 yuan/ton, closed at 23,430 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 168,578 lots, and the position was 83,302 lots. The highest price during the day was 23,600 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 23,205 yuan/ton. [2] Inventory - As of December 15, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 125,700 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 64,475 tons, an increase of 2,550 tons from the previous trading day. [3]

行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 12 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 美联储宣布降息 25 个基点符合市场预期，FOMC 声明中体现将进一步调 整利率的幅度和时机，预计 26 和 27 年各降息一次，利好逐步消化，商品市场 看多氛围有所减弱，有色表现分化，锡、铜领涨，锌、镍小幅收跌。Zn601 在 2.3 万一线徘徊，收于 22995 元/吨，跌 70，跌幅 0.30%，缩量减仓。持仓结构 来看，01 合约前 20 席位多空双减，净多头减 6 手，02 合约多空双增，净空头 增 1570 手。基本面来看，TC 下行叠加矿端供应持续转紧，炼厂 1 ...

行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 11 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明- 2 - 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2512 | 23025 | 23080 | 23110 | 22970 | 15 | 0.07 | 3565 | -865 | | ...

日期 2025 年 12 月 9 日 行业 锌期货日报 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 数据来源： Wind ，建信期货研究发展部 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2512 | 23145 | 23270 | 23290 | 22930 | 195 | 0.85 | 4790 | - ...

有色金属周报-锌 下游观望情绪较重，锌价上方空间或有限 2025年12月8日 研究所 祁玉蓉 从业资格号：F03100031 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021060 TEL：010-8229 5006 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观：美联储降息预期增强，市场风险偏好提升，加之国 | | | | | 内政治局会议召开，宏观情绪整体偏暖。 | | | |  | 原料端：趋紧。国产周度TC均价环比降低200元/金属吨至 | | | | | 1,850元/金属吨，进口锌精矿指数环比下降3.5美元/干吨至 | | | | | 57.75美元/干吨。12月国内炼厂减产规模进一步扩大，对 | | | | | 锌精矿需求有所减少，但国内锌精矿供给同样偏紧，矿端 | | | | | 紧缺状况未见缓解，预计12月TC延续跌势。 | 宏观情绪偏暖，叠加供给端收缩， | | |  | 成本利润：TC持续下调，产业链利润再次从炼厂端转至矿 | 锌价走势偏强，但随着锌价不断 | 下方支撑稳 | | | 端，上周锌价走势偏强，加之副产品收益补充 ...

锌矿延续偏紧， 宏观氛围积极 锌月报 2025/12/05 张世骄（有色金属组） 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估 04 需求分析 02 宏观分析 05 供需库存 03 供给分析 06 价格展望 01 月度评估 月度评估 ◆ 产业数据：锌精矿国产TC2050元/金属吨，进口TC指数61美元/干吨。锌精矿港口库存27.9万实物吨，锌精矿工厂库存64.4万实物吨。镀锌结构 件周度开工率录得56.54%，原料库存1.5万吨，成品库存36.6万吨。压铸锌合金周度开工率录得51.30%，原料库存1.3万吨，成品库存1.0万吨。 氧化锌周度开工率录得57.37%，原料库存0.2万吨，成品库存0.6万吨。 ◆ 总体来看：锌矿显性库存抬升，但锌精矿TC延续下行，锌冶利润承压，部分高成本锌冶炼厂减产。下游开工率边际下滑，虽然国内锌锭社会库 存小幅下滑，但综合计算在途库存及工厂库存后国内锌锭总库存小幅抬升。近日伦锌月间价差再度抬升，沪锌前20净多持仓提高，推动锌价短 期偏强运行。但从中期来看，锌产业偏 ...

Core Viewpoint - The zinc market is experiencing a mixed scenario with prices showing slight increases in the short term, but overall demand remains weak, leading to potential downward pressure on prices in the near future [5]. Price Overview - On November 26, the spot price for 0 zinc ingots in Shanghai was quoted at 22,400.00 CNY/ton, which is a premium of 45.0 CNY/ton over the futures main price of 22,355.00 CNY/ton [1]. - A nationwide zinc price overview on the same date shows various market prices for 0 zinc ingots, with Shanghai prices at 22,450 CNY/ton and Guangdong at 22,190 CNY/ton [2]. Futures Market - The Shanghai zinc futures market closed on November 26 with the main contract at 22,355.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.04%. The highest price reached was 22,425.00 CNY/ton, while the lowest was 22,280.00 CNY/ton, with a trading volume of 96,212 lots [2]. Inventory Levels - As of November 25, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported zinc registered warrants at 44,950 tons, with a slight decrease in canceled warrants to 3,050 tons. Total zinc inventory increased by 575 tons to 48,000 tons [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a zinc warehouse receipt of 73,819 tons, which is an increase of 922 tons compared to the previous trading day [4]. Market Analysis - According to Hongyuan Futures research, domestic smelters are actively purchasing domestic ore due to economic considerations, maintaining a tight supply of domestic ore. The processing fees for domestic zinc concentrate have decreased to 2,350 CNY/metal ton, while the import zinc concentrate processing fee index has dropped to 73.05 USD/dry ton [5]. - The overall demand remains weak, particularly with outdoor construction in northern regions slowing down due to colder weather and environmental regulations affecting downstream operations. The zinc market fundamentals are still weak, and short-term prices may face pressure [5]. - In the medium term, there is an expectation of tightening at the ore end in the fourth quarter, which may provide some support for zinc prices, although the overall market remains cautious due to structural risks [5].

Report Information - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 19, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Macro cooling and continuous LME zinc warehousing led to a downward shift in the center of LME zinc. On the 18th, LME inventory increased by 3,550 tons to 39,975 tons, with warehousing in Singapore, Kaohsiung, and Hong Kong. The low - inventory concern eased, the Cash - 3M Back structure dropped to 104.97, and the SHFE/LME ratio recovered to 7.5. The domestic non - ferrous market continued to correct, and SHFE zinc broke below the middle Bollinger Band. The main contract closed at 22,310 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan or 0.58%. The 12 - 01 spread was - 20 yuan/ton [7]. - The intraday market weakened compared to the previous day, but the spot premium increased. The Shanghai market had a premium of 180 yuan/ton over the December contract, the Tianjin market reported a discount of 50 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market, and the Guangdong market reported a discount of 70 yuan/ton to the January 2026 contract. Some zinc ingot exports led to a significant decrease in inventory, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly [7]. - With the reduction of northern mines in China and the concentrated release of smelters' winter stockpiling demand, the supply of domestic zinc ore was tight. The panic buying by smelters pushed down the processing fees. SMM estimated that the refined zinc output in November might decline slightly month - on - month. The tightening of the ore end was transmitted to the ingot end, providing support for zinc prices. In the short term, zinc prices were expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton, and the current price was at the lower end of the range. Attention should be paid to the support at 22,200 yuan [7]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review - Futures market data: For SHFE zinc 2512, the opening price was 22,460 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,310 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,465 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,265 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan or 0.58%, with a position of 82,326 and a position change of 76,806. For SHFE zinc 2601, the opening price was 22,495 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,330 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,495 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,295 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan or 0.65%, with a position of 82,373 and a position change of - 9,077. For SHFE zinc 2602, the opening price was 22,540 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,345 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,540 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,305 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan or 0.73%, with a position of 29,010 and a position change of - 49,321 [7]. 2. Industry News - On November 18, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated in the range of 22,435 - 22,555 yuan/ton, double - swallow brand in the range of 22,455 - 22,575 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc in the range of 22,365 - 22,485 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 150 - 160 yuan/ton over the SMM average price, and there were few quotes against the market [8]. - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at around 22,435 - 22,475 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo quoted a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract and a premium of 80 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot. The mainstream in the Ningbo area quoted against the 2512 contract. In the first period, the pre - sale of Qilin brand quoted a delivered premium of 180 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract [8]. - In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc ingots were mainly traded in the range of 22,240 - 22,430 yuan/ton, Zijin brand in the range of 22,470 - 22,560 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc ingots around 22,170 - 22,270 yuan/ton. The Huludao brand was quoted at 23,320 yuan/ton. The common 0 zinc quoted a discount of 50 to a premium of 50 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract, and Zijin brand quoted a premium of 180 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract. The Tianjin market reported a discount of about 50 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market [8]. - In the Guangdong market, 0 zinc was mainly traded in the range of 22,215 - 22,350 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands quoted a discount of 70 - 25 yuan/ton to the 2601 contract and a discount of 50 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong widened. In the first period, holders of Qilin, Mengzi, Danxia, Anning, and Lanxing brands quoted a discount of 70 - 25 yuan/ton. In the second period, Qilin, Mengzi, Anning, and Lanxing brands quoted a discount of 70 - 35 yuan/ton to the net price [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report presented figures such as the weekly inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots (in ten thousand tons), LME zinc inventory (in tons), the price trends of zinc in two markets, and SHFE month - to - month spreads, with data sources including Wind and SMM [12][14]

Group 1: Zinc Supply Dynamics - Zinc ore supply is tightening marginally, with domestic zinc concentrate production in October at 330,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.3% [2] - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported that global zinc ore production in August was 1,097,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.2% and a year-on-year increase of 13.1% [2] - Domestic zinc smelting plants are actively purchasing local ore due to a significant drop in processing fees, which fell to 2,600 yuan per metal ton, down 1,300 yuan from August's peak [2] Group 2: Refined Zinc Production - Global refined zinc production in August was 1,227,000 tons, with a monthly surplus of 47,900 tons [3] - Domestic refined zinc production in October was 617,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 21% [3] - The tightening zinc ore supply may lead to a slight reduction in refined zinc production as smelting plants face profit pressures [3] Group 3: Demand Trends - Overall demand from downstream processing enterprises remains stable, with some replenishment observed in mid-October when zinc prices fell [4] - However, the rising zinc prices in November may suppress downstream demand, particularly in the galvanized pipe sector due to weak steel prices and pressures in real estate and infrastructure [4] - Orders in sectors like power transmission and photovoltaic supports have shown resilience, while environmental factors may impact operational rates as winter approaches [4] Group 4: Market Outlook - The macroeconomic environment requires attention to the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations and precious metal trends affecting zinc prices [4] - Despite a lack of significant tightness in the market, the marginal changes in supply dynamics are expected to provide support for zinc prices [4] - Domestic inventories are slowly declining, and the current market sentiment may weaken, leading to potential volatility in zinc prices [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, zinc prices may be under pressure due to factors such as weak consumption and the Fed's hawkish remarks dampening rate - cut expectations. Previous short positions can be held. [3] - In the medium - to - long term, the mine end remains tight, processing fees are likely to fall rather than rise, refinery operations may decline, and combined with export expectations, there is strong support below the zinc price. After a correction, long positions can be considered. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Zinc prices showed an oscillatory decline. The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.66% to 22,420 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract fell by 1.30% to 22,425 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) dropped by 1.70% to 3,014.5 US dollars/ton. [12] 3.2 TC Continues to Fall, Focus on Ingot - End Operation 3.2.1 Zinc Concentrate - As of November 14, the inventory of imported zinc ore at Lianyungang was 160,000 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The total inventory of 7 ports decreased by 43,000 tons to 305,700 tons. The CZSPT set the guidance range for the purchase US - dollar processing fee of imported zinc concentrate before the end of the first quarter of 2026 at 105 - 120 US dollars/dry ton. [30] - As of November 13, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 5,398 yuan/metal ton. In September, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 505,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 4.0081 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49%. [37] - Both domestic and imported TC for zinc concentrate continued to decline. [38] 3.2.2 Refined Zinc - Due to the oscillatory decline of zinc prices and the fall of TC, the production profit of refined zinc enterprises continued to decline. As of November 13, the production profit was - 1,338 yuan/ton. It is expected that the zinc ingot output in November will slightly decline to around 610,000 tons. [47] - The import profit window for refined zinc remained closed. As of November 14, the import profit was - 4,292.04 yuan/ton. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 258,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 61,600 tons. [51] 3.3 Environmental Restrictions Lifted, Galvanizing Operation Rate Rebounds - The galvanizing operation rate increased by 2.46 percentage points to 57.59%. The operation of enterprises affected by environmental restrictions has basically recovered. In terms of demand, the demand in the north is relatively flat, while that in the south is relatively strong, and export orders are relatively stable due to tariff negotiations. [57] - The raw material inventory of galvanizing enterprises increased due to high - level oscillatory zinc prices and large - scale enterprises' demand for long - term order goods. The finished product inventory also increased. [60][61] 3.4 Poor Demand, Die - Casting Zinc Alloy Operation Rate Declines - The average price of Zamak3 zinc alloy decreased by 0.64% to 23,165 yuan/ton, and the average price of Zamak5 zinc alloy decreased by 0.63% to 23,715 yuan/ton. [70] - The die - casting zinc alloy operation rate decreased by 0.65 percentage points to 50.3%. Some enterprises reduced production due to poor demand. [73] - The raw material inventory of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased as enterprises reduced spot purchases and consumed long - term orders at the beginning of the month. The finished product inventory increased as production and shipment slowed down. [76][77] 3.5 Slower Shipment, Zinc Oxide Finished Product Inventory Continues to Accumulate - The average price of zinc oxide (≥99.7%) decreased by 0.92% to 21,500 yuan/ton. [83] - The operation rate of zinc oxide enterprises decreased by 1.32 percentage points to 56.31%. Some northern enterprises were affected by environmental protection. In the terminal market, the tire factory's purchase of rubber - grade zinc oxide is relatively stable, but there is caution about the future tire export market. [86] - The raw material inventory of zinc oxide enterprises increased as some enterprises received raw material shipments. The finished product inventory slightly increased due to high - zinc - price - induced downstream wait - and - see sentiment and slower shipment. [89] 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory Continues to Improve 3.6.1 Inventory Status - As of November 13, the SMM zinc ingot inventory in three locations was 148,800 tons, showing a slight decline. The inventory in the bonded area was 3,800 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous period. [96] - As of November 14, the SHFE inventory was 100,900 tons, showing an increase. As of November 13, the LME inventory was 39,000 tons, continuing to rise. [99] 3.6.2 Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From March to September 2025, the monthly supply - demand balance of zinc showed fluctuations, with some months having a surplus and others a deficit. For example, in September 2025, the supply - demand balance was - 0.20 million tons. [105]