行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 4 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货7月3日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | | 价 | | | | | （%） | | | | | EC2508 | 1,894.9 | 1,915.0 | 1,896.9 | 1,882.1 | ...

中心 大宗商品近期波动较大，欧线宏观属性较强，近期博弈难度较高，部 分船司宣涨运价，关注挺价落地情况。特朗普政府并不打算延长关税 谈判期，目前现货市场价格区间已定，有小幅涨价试探市场，盘面小 幅反弹。综上述,我们认为,在地缘冲突下,博弈难度较大,建议轻 仓参与或观望。 7月2日主力合约2508收盘1883.5，涨幅为1.67%，成交量4.42万 手,持仓量3.63万手,较上日减手4141手。 市场多空博弈,或对现货运价涨价存在一定预期,整体氛围较为乐 观，盘面较强震荡。之后需对关税政策、中东局势以及现货运价情况 关注。 短期策略：基本面无明显转向情况下建议逢高试空，已建议2508合约 反弹至2000以上建议轻仓试空(200点以上的利润空间),空单可考 虑止盈,风险偏好者已建议2510合约1300以下轻仓试多,设置好止损 止盈。 套利策略：国际局势动荡背景下，波动较大，暂时以观望为主。 长期策略: 各合约已建议冲高止盈, 等待回调企稳后,在判断后续方向 跌涨停板：2506-2604合约调整为16%。 我司保证金：2506-2604合约调整为26%。 日内开仓限制: 2506-2604所有合约为100手。 202 ...

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 3 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货7月2日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2508 | 1,852.6 | 1,900.0 | 1,883.5 | 1,894.9 | 30.9 | 1.67 ...

SCFIS(欧线)指数季节性趋势 12000 100000 30 00 405 6000 40 00 2000 0 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 =2023 2021 = 2022 = -2024 · 202'5 EC远期曲线 EC期货合约价格走势 3500 3000 2500 20000 1500 1000 1200 500 1000 2508 2510 2542 2602 2604 理念价格 2506 20 25/5/14 2025 /5/20 20 25/7/1 月间升贴水 EC2508/2510 EC2506/2508 120% 110% 100% 90% 30% 70% Und Brid 2024 (终后后) erage(正第年份) 2024 (终行后) EC2510/2512 EC2506/2510 120% 110% 90% 30% 70% 60% 24 133 3 EC 2506/25 10 2510/25 12 nge(正常年份) 2024 (终行后) rage(正常年份) = 船司线上报价结构 (40GP) 船司线上报 ...

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 2 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货7月1日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2508 | 1,767.1 | 1,784.2 | 1,904.9 | 1,852.6 | 137.8 | 7.80 ...

黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2508 | 1,904.9 | 7.80% | 68,840 | 40,476 | 1,248 | 1.70 | | 0.83 | | 期货 | EC2510 | 1,383.8 | 3.28% | 21,666 | 31,506 | 1,385 | 0.69 | | 0.33 | | | EC2512 | 1,538.0 | 2.67% | 3,471 | 6,186 | 359 | 0.56 | | 0.28 | | | | | 本期 | | 2025/6/30 | 单位 | | 周涨幅 | | | | SCFIS： 欧洲航线 | | 2, ...

Core Viewpoint - The European shipping index futures have shown a significant rebound, with the main contract rising by 7.8% to 1904.9 points, contrasting with previous downward trends, indicating ongoing market speculation about the timing of peak freight rates in July and August and subsequent declines [2] Group 1: Market Trends - The European shipping market typically experiences a peak season in July and August due to strong demand from exporters preparing for Christmas, which usually drives freight rates up [3] - Despite the expected peak season, the European shipping index's August contract has been in a downward trend since June, influenced by macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics [3] - Analysts suggest that the recent decline in the August contract may be overly pessimistic, as European export demand remains resilient and supply is stable [3] Group 2: Freight Rate Adjustments - Major shipping companies have begun to lower their freight rates for July, with specific reductions noted from companies like CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd, indicating a potential peak in current rates [4] - The market is currently assessing the top position of freight rates, with expectations that clearer signals from the spot market will guide future price movements [4] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The overall freight rate center in the shipping market is expected to decline in the second half of the year due to increased supply and the delivery of new vessels [5][6] - The shipping market is projected to see a 6% growth in capacity in the latter half of 2023, which may exacerbate supply-demand imbalances and put downward pressure on rates [6] - The anticipated delivery of new vessels, estimated at 1.7 million TEU in the second half of the year, is expected to further intensify supply pressures [6] Group 4: Uncertainties - Potential uncertainties remain, including the expiration of tariff suspensions and geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which could impact shipping volumes and freight rates [7]

2025年7月1日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) SCFIS补涨，船司挺价难度仍较高，空单可考虑部分止盈，近期博弈难度较大，建议轻仓参与或观望。 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 6月30日 | 6月27日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）2123.24点，较上期上涨9.6% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1366.47点，较上期下跌1.13% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1619.19点，较上期下跌22.3% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1442.95点，较上期上涨11.03% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1553.68点，较上期下跌2.04%% | | 6月27日 | 6月27日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1861.51点，较上期下跌8.08点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1369.34点，较上期上涨2.0% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格2030USD/TEU, 较上期上涨10.63% | | | 上海出口集装箱运 ...

2025 年 7 月 1 日 集运指数（欧线）：暂时观望，关注 7 月下旬挺价 成色 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | EC2508 | 1,761.4 | -1.92% | 32,689 | 39,228 | 168 | 0.83 | | 1.01 | | | EC2510 | 1,339.0 | 0.31% | 10,051 | 30,121 | 401 | 0.33 | | 0.37 | | | EC2512 | 1,500.0 | 0.60% | 1,654 | 5,827 | -139 | 0.28 | | 0.62 | | | | 本期 | | 20 ...

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 1 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货6月30日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2506 | 1,886.6 | 1,889.0 | 1,888.5 | 1,889.1 | 1.9 | 0.10 ...