过去一段时间，关于"AI泡沫是否来临"的讨论在全球资本市场不断升温。随着大型科技企业加速扩张 GPU集群、拉升AI CapEx，而短期商业化收入尚未完全兑现，部分观点认为我们正重演 2000 年互联网 泡沫的轨迹。 然而，近期谷歌发布的Gemini3，以其在任务执行能力上的跃升，让这种"泡沫论"显得越来越脱节。若 将今年的技术拐点仍放在互联网范式中理解，难免低估这轮变革的本质。 AI不是互联网2.0，它不是信息流速的升级，而是生产力结构的重写。理解这一点，是判断趋势是否"泡 沫"的关键。 AI投资周期不等同于互联网投资周期 "泡沫论"常见的核心逻辑是：企业CapEx扩张过快 → 收入兑现不足 → 投资不可持续。这种逻辑在互联 网商业模型下是成立的，因为互联网的增长依赖用户行为的渗透和在线时长的增加，用户扩散后收入快 速爆发是常态。 然而AI的增长路径并不沿袭互联网范式。AI的增长不依赖用户规模，而依赖算力产能能力——模型能 力跃升、单GPU吞吐提升、推理成本下降、工作流自动化可规模化落地。 这些变量共同构成了一条"能力驱动"的曲线，而非"用户驱动"的曲线。因此，过度参照互联网投资周期 来判断AI的投入产出效率 ...

11月25日，日韩股市高开，韩国综合指数开盘大涨2.6%，随后涨幅收窄。 【导读】日韩股市高开，芯片概念股走强 | 首尔综合指数 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指 HQ.KOSPI | | | | | | 3903.65 +57.59 +1.50% | | | | | | 11-25 08:25:20 | | | | | | 今开 3942.36 最高 3946.61 | | | | | | 昨收 3846.06 最低 3897.16 | | | | | | 分时 日K 室K | 周K | 月K | 更多, | 0 | | 均价:3918.13 最新:3903.65 +57.59 +1.50% | | | | | | 8946.61 | | | | 2.61% | | 3846.06 | | | | 0.00% | | 3745.51 | | | | -2.61% | | 08:00 | | 11:15 | | 14:30 | | MACD = [12,26,9] MACD:0.071 DIFF :- 7.983 DEA :- 8.019 | | | ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the **AI industry** and its implications on the macroeconomic landscape, drawing parallels with historical trends in **real estate** and the **internet** [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **AI as an Emerging Industry**: AI is not merely a bubble but a necessary development path for emerging industries, similar to real estate and the internet. It plays a role in capital allocation during a rate-cutting cycle, contributing to localized prosperity [1][4]. - **Impact on Macro Strategy**: AI has the capability to influence macroeconomic strategies significantly. Companies like Nvidia have reached market capitalizations exceeding $5 trillion, indicating that ignoring AI in macro analysis is incomplete [5][6]. - **Debt Expansion and Market Concerns**: The current debt expansion in the AI sector raises market concerns, but this is a typical outcome of capital seeking profit. The relationship between the Fed's interest rate cuts and AI development is not directly causal [6][7]. - **Comparison with Other Bubbles**: The AI industry is not at the same bubble stage as the 1990s internet or the 2013-2015 mobile internet bubbles. Current conditions suggest a more pragmatic development phase for AI [8][9]. - **Sectoral Prosperity**: The AI industry's role has shifted from being a producer to a distributor of capital, leading to price increases in related sectors such as storage and metals, reminiscent of the real estate industry's elasticity [9][10]. Additional Important Points - **Cross-Border Capital Flows**: The ongoing Fed rate cuts and narrowing interest rate differentials are expected to lead to increased cross-border capital flows back to China, particularly by 2026, as AI takes a leading role in capital distribution [11][12]. - **Profit Margins and Supply Chain Effects**: High profit margins in AI companies are expected to spill over into other sectors, influencing supply chain pricing and contributing to inflation. However, the U.S. industrial system's reliance on imports complicates this dynamic [10][12]. - **Future Economic Environment**: The AI industry's overseas business correlates strongly with stock performance, indicating that companies with AI-related operations are more likely to achieve above-average returns. This trend is expected to reshape valuations across various industrial sectors by 2026 [12]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the AI industry's current status, its macroeconomic implications, and future trends.

资金全面流出的同时，仅ETF在净买入。周一至周四，除科创50ETF，其余宽基日均净流入规模超过上 周。周五宽基ETF均出现大幅净流入。 资金面的变化是市场调整的深层原因，同时也受到多重直接因素催化。第一，美国政府关门、降息预期 下调等引发流动性担忧。全球股市普遍下跌的同时，黄金白银等传统避险资产也同时下跌，国内股市调 整也未对债券形成明显利好。第二，AI泡沫论再度兴起亦短期压制风险偏好。周三盘后英伟达三季报 数据超预期，但随之而来的是财务数据质疑和AI泡沫论，周四、周五英伟达股价大幅下跌，国内科技 板块随之调整。第三，日历效应、股指期货交割等因素放大市场波动。周五市场情绪通常偏谨慎，叠加 11月21日当月股指期货期权交割日，市场波动有所放大。 年末资金分歧叠加事件催化带来情绪指标全面回落，VIX指数与国内股指期货基差等情绪指标显示市场 风险偏好有所降温。 此前该行推荐的均衡配置组合可以渡过纠结期，用与科技弱相关甚至负相关的行业进行对冲，例如：1) 金融：对冲科技震荡风险；2)顺周期中的化工；3)中美叙事转暖下创新药。 市场风格会重新聚焦科技，可能就在年内，大幅的调整将加快这个时点的到来。 该行在10月中旬以来 ...

Core Viewpoint - Industrial Fulian's stock price has experienced significant volatility, with a recent drop of 7.80% to 55.94 yuan per share, marking a two-month low and a cumulative decline of over 14% in the last three trading days. The company has denied rumors of a downward adjustment in its fourth-quarter performance targets, asserting that operations are proceeding as planned and customer demand remains strong [3][4]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Industrial Fulian reported revenue of 603.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.49 billion yuan, up 48.52%. In the third quarter alone, revenue reached 243.17 billion yuan, reflecting a 42.81% increase, while net profit surged by 62.04% to 10.37 billion yuan [5]. Market Dynamics - The company's stock price has seen a significant increase of over 170% year-to-date, but recent profit-taking has led to a decline of more than 30% since October 30. The performance of Industrial Fulian's stock may also be influenced by fluctuations in Nvidia's stock price amid discussions surrounding the "AI bubble" [4][5]. Product Development - Industrial Fulian is making progress with its new AI superchip platform, Vera Rubin, with multiple new products being developed in collaboration with partners. These products are expected to enhance computing power density, energy efficiency, and system reliability, becoming a core growth driver for the company's high-end AI server deliveries [4]. Shareholder Actions - In response to inquiries about stock buyback plans, the company indicated that the maximum buyback price was set at 20 yuan per share, which will be adjusted to 19.36 yuan after the 2024 annual equity distribution. The company plans to expedite the buyback process following a board meeting to adjust the buyback price limit [4].

孙立坚（复旦大学金融研究中心主任） 关于美联储12月降息预期和美股AI领域是否存在泡沫的讨论，是当前全球市场的焦点问题。金融市场的灵敏反应点集中在"利率路径、通胀锚 定、AI资本开支周期"三条主线上。若把这些线索合起来看，我们会发现：降息与否会改变收益率曲线与风险偏好，但更可能呈"结构性波动而 非系统性震荡"；至于美股AI板块是否存在泡沫，当前证据更接近"高景气+供给瓶颈的资本开支周期"，尚不足以定性为系统性泡沫。 首先，关于12月降息与否，美联储内部的主要分歧在于，一些官员认为，鉴于就业市场出现冷却迹象，有空间实施宽松政策；然而，另一方则 持谨慎态度。这种罕见的公开分歧，让市场在短期内陷入了波动和观望。 来源：21世纪经济报道 具体而言，若美联储降息，对美股可能短期会有一波提振，但并非万能药。降息通常会降低融资成本，提振市场情绪，尤其对利率敏感的小盘 股（它们通常持有更多浮动利率债务）和近期承压的成长股有利。但需注意，市场此前已部分消化降息预期，需警惕"利好出尽"。至于债市与 汇市方面，降息预期通常会导致美国国债收益率下滑，同时可能给美元带来一定的下行压力。相反，若美联储不降息，可能出现以下几种情 形：一是 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Decision - The discussion around the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut in December is a focal point for global markets, with key considerations being "interest rate path, inflation anchoring, and AI capital expenditure cycle" [2] - There is a notable division among Federal Reserve officials regarding the rate cut, with some advocating for easing due to signs of a cooling job market, while others remain cautious, leading to market volatility and uncertainty [2][3] Group 2: Impact of Rate Cut on Stock Market - A potential rate cut could provide a short-term boost to the U.S. stock market, particularly benefiting small-cap and growth stocks sensitive to interest rates, although the market has partially priced in these expectations [3] - If the Federal Reserve does not cut rates, it may lead to a pullback in high-valuation tech stocks and could attract capital inflows, supporting the dollar but pressuring overseas earnings for U.S. multinational companies [3] Group 3: AI Sector Bubble Debate - Concerns about a bubble in the U.S. AI sector stem from market structure and valuation mismatches, with a few AI giants like Nvidia and Microsoft driving significant index gains, indicating a potential imbalance [3][4] - Nvidia's stock price declined despite strong earnings growth, suggesting that high expectations had already been priced in, leading to profit-taking [4] - The influx of capital into unprofitable AI startups raises concerns about systemic risk, as valuations may not be supported by earnings [4] Group 4: Counterarguments to Bubble Claims - Some experts argue against the bubble narrative, citing that current valuations are supported by earnings, with the Nasdaq 100's expected P/E ratio at 28, significantly lower than the 89 during the internet bubble [4] - The number of IPOs and secondary offerings is much lower than during the peak of the internet bubble, indicating a more rational market sentiment [4] - The rapid adoption of AI technologies, such as ChatGPT, demonstrates real demand and potential for technological transformation [4] Group 5: Overall Market Dynamics - AI is currently a strong growth driver in non-residential investment in the U.S., contributing significantly to equipment investment and certain industrial chains, but labeling it as a bubble lacks systemic evidence [5] - A Federal Reserve rate cut could amplify volatility in the AI sector, with low rates potentially driving more capital into growth sectors, but concerns about economic weakness could raise doubts about future profitability [5][6] - The concentration of market gains among a few AI leaders poses risks, as any fundamental questioning of these companies could trigger widespread sell-offs, and liquidity issues in the banking system could exacerbate market panic [5][6]

货 金 融 市场情绪转弱，铝价高位回落 研 究 院 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 南京大学学士 弘 业 期 张天骜 研 究 院 美欧制造业PMI初值低于预期，美国消费者信心指数创历史新低，美联储12月降息预期上升至五成以上，市场情 绪明显好转。今日中日关系仍然紧张，市场关注俄乌系列谈判进展。日内美元上涨人民币小幅下跌，有色金属冲高回 落，市场情绪偏向谨慎。沪铝下跌，伦铝下跌，国内现货铝下跌。 业 期 货 金 融 数据上看，今日沪铝收盘报21380，现货报21360，现货较期货贴水-20点。本周沪铝大跌，现货贴水缩窄至-10 元，今日现货成交不佳。本周国内电解铝社会库存平稳，氧化铝库存小幅下降。上期所铝库存上升，现货需求一般。 LME库存稳定，LME现货贴水扩大至-31美元，海外现货需求不佳。人民币汇率本周小幅上涨，铝价沪伦比本周持平于 7.65，内外盘走势大体相当。 弘 技术上看，今日美原油小幅下跌，伦铝小幅下跌，在2803美元附近运行。沪铝今日下跌，收于21380，技术形态 偏弱。沪铝成交上升持仓下降，市场情绪偏向谨慎。本周国内电解铝社会库存上 ...

2025.11.24 本文字数：1314，阅读时长大约2.5分钟 作者 |第一财经郑栩彤 关于"AI泡沫论"的讨论仍在进行，美股多只算力相关个股股价震荡。上周英伟达发布超市场预期的最新季度财报后，该公司股价连续两日下跌。 A股的英伟达概念股工业富联近期股价也在震荡下行。10月30日到11月24日，工业富联股价已累计下跌30.77%，市值蒸发超4000亿元。截至11月24日收 盘，工业富联股价下跌7.8%。 工业富联第三季度营收和净利润则则创下单季度历史新高。第三季度营收2431.72亿元，同比增长42.81%，净利润103.73亿元，同比增长62.04%，前三季 度营收逼近去年全年营收。 但一些机构已在第三季度减持英伟达。对冲基金桥水在第三季度大幅减持芯片巨头英伟达，减持比例近三分之二。"硅谷风投教父"彼得·蒂尔旗下的基金 Thiel Macro Fund第三季度出售了约53.7万股英伟达股票，占其投资组合的近40%。 除了机构减持，英伟达与OpenAI的绑定关系也受到市场关注，英伟达此前计划助力OpenAI构建和部署至少10吉瓦的AI数据中心，这些数据中心包含数百 万块英伟达GPU。但OpenAI在大模型领 ...

摘要 过去一周，国内主要市场指数下跌，其中上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500 和中证 1000 涨跌幅分别为-2.7%、-3.73%、- 5.77%和-5.79%。 从中期来看，根据我们构建的宏观择时策略给出的信号，11 月份权益推荐仓位为 25%。拆分来看，模型对 11 月份经 济增长层面信号强度为 0%；而货币流动性层面信号强度为 50%。择时策略 2025 年年初至今收益率为 13.55%，同期 Wind 全 A 收益率为 25.61%。 过去一周市场宽幅波动，在海外流动性收紧下，价值因子表现良好。且随着市场波动放大，量价类因子表现量良好。 且我们可观察到，在市场弱势情况下，对于有潜在业绩支撑的板块更加偏好，导致一致预期因子表现良好。展望未来 一周，在宏观不确定仍较高的情况下，我们预估价值和量价类因子表现能有所延续。 风险提示 以上结果通过历史数据统计、建模和测算完成，在政策、市场环境发生变化时模型存在失效的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 微盘股指标监控：综合来看，当前轮动模型由于微盘股滚动 20 天斜率收正，茅指数为负斜率，当前轮动模型发出切 换至微盘股指数信号，中期配置微盘股指数的预期能有 ...