专题：2025基金行业年终大盘点：公募规模近36万亿元，主动权益重夺主场，"冠军基"揭榜倒计时 上周A股市场呈现先抑后扬的震荡修复格局，指数表现分化，结构上"沪强深弱"。在"扩大内需"政策预 期及高股息避险属性驱动下，消费、非银金融成为领涨主线，而此前活跃的AI应用、AI硬件有所回 调。周内A股交投活跃度有所下降，日均成交额降至1.76万亿元。市场风格方面，消费行业领涨而科技 板块有所回调，整体表现为：消费>金融>周期>成长。 金鹰基金表示，在国内年末资金调仓与政策催化背景下，资金在市场调整期向防御性与政策支持方向迁 移。数据方面，11月消费受高基数和政策透支影响明显放缓，固定资产投资延续负增长，房地产市场持 续低迷，外需则是少数亮点。但往明年年初看，货币发力和财政前置有望带动国内经济环比改善，两会 窗口亦会明确"十五五"规划重点工程项目和远期经济动能抓手。 本资料所引用的观点、分析及预测仅为个人观点，是其在目前特定市场情况下并基于一定的假设条件下 的分析和判断，并不意味着适合今后所有的市场状况，相关指数、行业等的过往表现不代表未来表现， 也不代表本公司旗下基金的业绩表现，不构成对阅读者的投资建议。基金过往业 ...

AI是否存在泡沫？对AI技术的监管该严还是松？如何确保这项技术发展始终服务于人的福祉？这些有 关AI的核心争论，或许能从"上善AI"的理念找到解答方向。 12月18日下午，南方都市报、南都数字经济治理研究中心在北京举办"第九届啄木鸟数据治理论坛"，主 题聚焦"AI安全边界：技术、信任与治理新秩序"。十四届全国政协委员、工业和信息化部原副部长王江 平以《上善AI：以对齐求善治》为题发表主旨演讲，他引用老子"上善若水"的理念，尝试勾勒中国AI治 理愿景。 12月18日，南都在京举办第九届啄木鸟数据治理论坛。 王江平认为，当前国际AI治理理念分歧较大，阵营化趋势明显，迫切需要一种东方古老智慧统一治理 愿景。国内AI监管同样需要一套科学、敏捷的框架体系，来平衡AI发展其间的激进与焦虑。 AI系统向"智能实体"转变，但治理领域进展有限 随着AI技术的演进和产业应用，AI治理问题日益显现。从AI生成"流浪汉入家"到AI仿冒名人带货，从 AI换脸拟声诈骗到未成年人过度沉迷聊天机器人……这些案例显示，当AI技术能力不断提升，安全边 界却在模糊。 王江平在演讲中提到，大模型加速落地的同时，由模型幻觉所引发的内容风险愈发成为热点 ...

Core Insights - The technology sector has undergone significant changes in 2025, with AI, chips, and new energy themes driving market trends. The debate over the AI bubble has resurfaced, making the investment landscape for 2026 a focal point for market participants [1][6]. Group 1: AI Bubble Discussion - The discussion around the AI bubble has evolved through three phases since 2023, with concerns gradually alleviated by ongoing capital expenditures and revenue growth from major cloud service providers (CSPs) [1][6]. - Fears regarding computational power deflation from late 2024 to mid-2025 have been mitigated by the North American market's continued success in model training [1][6]. - The investment cycle concerns at the end of 2025 have been eased as leading CSPs develop proprietary ASIC chips for training high-quality models [1][6]. Group 2: Current Stage of AI Industry - The AI industry is characterized as being in an early growth phase, with a more solid performance foundation compared to the 2000 internet cycle [2][7]. - The current market is focused on infrastructure development, with application monetization still in an exploratory phase, indicating significant future growth potential [2][7]. - Investors can assess the economic cycle of specific sectors through three dimensions: supply-demand dynamics, financial metrics, and performance indicators [2][7]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities and Challenges for 2026 - The upstream computational infrastructure segment presents strong investment opportunities, driven by a competitive landscape for computational resources [3][8]. - Challenges in this segment include supply chain bottlenecks and geopolitical uncertainties that could impact the entire industry [3][8]. - The midstream model or platform segment's key opportunity lies in the competitive positioning of platforms, with CSPs potentially monetizing their models through SaaS and PaaS [3][8]. Group 4: Downstream Application Opportunities - The downstream application segment shows promise, particularly in AI+SaaS applications for B2B, as improved efficiency can lead to stronger willingness to pay from enterprise users [4][9]. - Challenges in this segment include difficulties in commercializing AI applications, which may hinder customer willingness to pay if model capabilities are not closely integrated [4][9].

那么，影响究竟有多大呢？ 日本动了！ 12月19日午间，日本央行宣布，将基准利率从0.5%上调至0.75%，符合市场预期。利率水平创30年来新高，这也是2025年1月以后，日本央行11个月来再次进行加 息。 除了加息之外，另一个消息更值得重视。据彭博社消息，日本税改方案最终草案显示，自民党及其执政联盟伙伴维新会将同意从2027年1月起，将所有收入阶层的 所得税税率提高1个百分点。新增税收将用于满足日本的防务需求。 去年7月日本加息导致较大的流动性冲击。西部证券曹柳龙认为，主要是因为两个原因：一是大量活跃的"套息套汇"平仓引发流动性冲击；二是美国衰退交易则放大 流动性冲击。而当前最活跃的"套息套汇交易"基本已经平仓，日元加息导致流动性冲击的前提条件已经弱化。 不过，当前以美股为代表的全球股市已经6年"大水牛"，本身就有脆弱性，同时美国"AI泡沫论"的担忧又起，资金避险情绪较重，日元加息有可能成为诱发全球流动 性冲击的"催化剂"。这种流动性冲击大概率会倒逼美联储QE，所以全球股市很有可能会快速修复。 日本加息很难直接导致全球流动性冲击，但美股"AI泡沫论"担忧可能会放大日本加息的影响。因此，投资者很难预测全球是否 ...

Group 1 - The market is experiencing fluctuations between adjustments and rebounds, with mixed sentiments among investors regarding whether to cut losses or buy more [1] - The external environment is not optimistic, with the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut highlighting internal divisions, particularly concerning stagnant inflation and a cooling job market [2] - The A-share market has shown a structural performance with seamless transitions between sectors, leading to the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs despite some volatility [2] Group 2 - As the year-end approaches, there is a decrease in risk appetite among investors, which explains the recent market adjustments [3] - The stock-bond valuation ratio indicates that major indices are in a middle state, neither particularly cheap nor overly expensive, based on the PE-TTM and ten-year government bond yield [3] - The number of new individual stock accounts is not at a high level, suggesting that the current market conditions do not reflect the typical signals of a market peak [6] Group 3 - The core driving force behind the recent market rally since April 7 is attributed to positive domestic signals, including policy support for the capital market, technological innovation, and new domestic capital inflows [8] - Despite external influences and geopolitical tensions, the fundamental logic of the current market rally remains intact, encouraging a cautious yet confident outlook for medium to long-term investments [8]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on the 19th of this month, with limited impact on global liquidity due to previous rate hikes since March last year [1] - The most dangerous phase of liquidity shock has passed, as the futures market has already closed the most active "carry trade" positions, and the Federal Reserve's expansionary policy is stabilizing market liquidity expectations [1] - Concerns about the "AI bubble" in the US stock market and the overall vulnerability of the market may lead to a liquidity shock triggered by the yen's interest rate hike [1][2] Group 2 - The technology sector in the US stock market may experience adjustments that could prompt the Federal Reserve to resume quantitative easing, leading to a quick recovery in capital markets [2] - The outlook for major asset allocation remains positive for gold and RMB assets, driven by China's expanding export surplus and the potential for the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts, which will support the long-term appreciation of the RMB [2] Group 3 - The optical fiber and cable industry is showing signs of recovery, with prices entering an upward channel, as retail prices for scattered fibers have rebounded by approximately 15%-20% [3] - The demand for high-value products such as multimode and ultra-low loss fibers is surging due to the explosion of AI computing power, leading manufacturers to shift capacity towards high-end products [3][4] - The growth in overseas demand is driving a strong "volume and price increase" trend in exports, with export values for optical rods, fibers, and cables expected to grow by over 50% year-on-year by October 2025 [3] Group 4 - Domestic manufacturers are maintaining restraint in expanding core optical rod capacity due to previous years of capacity clearing and management, which will limit short-term supply amid rapidly increasing demand [4] - The mismatch between supply and demand in the context of sustained demand growth will support continued price increases in the optical fiber industry [4]

2025.12. 18 在今年9月10日以创纪录的涨幅刷新历史新高后，甲骨文股价便开始一路走低。本月以来，公司连遭 利空突袭，进一步加剧了外界对于人工智能行业前景和估值泡沫的担忧。 截至周三收盘，甲骨文报178.45美元，下跌5.4%，近三个月累计跌幅48.5%。 作为近两年推动美股 牛市的关键因素，该行业对于明年市场的走向依然至关重要。 甲骨文否认融资泡汤传闻 据媒体报道，蓝猫头鹰资本（Blue Owl Capital）为甲骨文公司密歇根州100亿美元数据中心项目 提供融资的计划宣告泡汤，知情人士指出，此事源于市场对甲骨文债务规模及支出水平的担忧。受该 消息影响，曾一度大热的这家人工智能（AI）概念股大幅跳水。不过，甲骨文随后对该报道予以否 认，并表示该项目正在稳步推进。 本文字数：2015，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 近几周来，与企业数据中心建设计划相关的高风险融资方案一直让投资者感到紧张不安。甲骨文在最 新季度财报文件中披露，截至11月30日，该公司未来15年在数据中心租赁及云服务容量方面的承诺 支出高达2480亿美元，较今年8月的数据增长了近148%。 美国证券交易委员会SEC文件 ...

在今年9月10日以创纪录的涨幅刷新历史新高后，甲骨文股价便开始一路走低。本月以来，公司连遭利 空突袭，进一步加剧了外界对于人工智能行业前景和估值泡沫的担忧。 截至周三收盘，甲骨文报178.45美元，下跌5.4%，近三个月累计跌幅48.5%。作为近两年推动美股牛市 的关键因素，该行业对于明年市场的走向依然至关重要。 甲骨文否认融资泡汤传闻 周三，其他与人工智能相关的个股也纷纷跟随下跌。芯片制造商博通下挫4.4%，近5个交易日累计跌幅 超20%，进入技术性熊市，超威半导体AMD跌幅超过4%，也陷入熊市泥潭。 "我们显然已经看到市场出现了非常明显的轮动，资金正从大盘成长股转向大盘价值股。我认为，这实 际上是投资者在为明年的市场走势调整仓位，转向更具防御性的配置。"扎克斯投资管理公司客户投资 组合经理马尔伯里（Brian Mulberry）表示，"当前市场真正的疑问是：'谁能从这些规模庞大的人工智 能投资中实现盈利？'" 马尔伯里预计，资金从高估值个股向 "估值更合理板块"的轮动趋势将持续至2026年。他认为，这一趋 势叠加货币政策的不确定性，可能会引发市场出现一定的波动。"在当前阶段，关注某些特定指标以判 断人工智 ...

该行业对于明年美股走向依然至关重要。 在今年9月10日以创纪录的涨幅刷新历史新高后，甲骨文股价便开始一路走低。本月以来，公司连遭利 空突袭，进一步加剧了外界对于人工智能行业前景和估值泡沫的担忧。 截至周三收盘，甲骨文报178.45美元，下跌5.4%，近三个月累计跌幅48.5%。作为近两年推动美股牛市 的关键因素，该行业对于明年市场的走向依然至关重要。 甲骨文否认融资泡汤传闻 据媒体报道，蓝猫头鹰资本（Blue Owl Capital）为甲骨文公司密歇根州100亿美元数据中心项目提供融 资的计划宣告泡汤，知情人士指出，此事源于市场对甲骨文债务规模及支出水平的担忧。受该消息影 响，曾一度大热的这家人工智能（AI）概念股大幅跳水。不过，甲骨文随后对该报道予以否认，并表 示该项目正在稳步推进。 近几周来，与企业数据中心建设计划相关的高风险融资方案一直让投资者感到紧张不安。甲骨文在最新 季度财报文件中披露，截至11月30日，该公司未来15年在数据中心租赁及云服务容量方面的承诺支出高 达2480亿美元，较今年8月的数据增长了近148%。 美国证券交易委员会SEC文件显示，这家云计算巨头在今年9月新发行了180亿美元债券。 ...

Core Conclusions - The report highlights the potential impact of Japan's interest rate hike on global liquidity, suggesting that while there are concerns, the actual shock may be limited due to previous adjustments in the market [7][8][9] - The medical device and healthcare sectors are expected to rebound, driven by innovation and international expansion, despite current pressures from macroeconomic factors [2][14] - The energy storage industry is poised for growth, supported by favorable policies and increasing demand, with key players identified for investment [3][18][19] Group 1: Strategy and Market Outlook - The report suggests a continued positive outlook for AH shares, with strategic allocations in government bonds and gold, while US stocks and bonds may remain volatile [1][13] - Japan's potential interest rate hike is seen as a catalyst for global liquidity concerns, but the actual impact may be mitigated by prior market adjustments and the current economic environment [7][8][9] Group 2: Medical Device and Healthcare Sector - The medical device sector is currently undervalued, with significant potential for recovery driven by innovation and government support for healthcare services [2][14] - Key areas of focus include domestic device upgrades, international market expansion, and the recovery of hospital services, with specific recommendations for investment in leading companies [14][15][16] Group 3: Energy Storage Industry - The energy storage sector is experiencing robust growth, with a projected global installed capacity of 329 GWh by 2025, reflecting an 87% year-on-year increase [19] - Key recommendations include investing in leading battery manufacturers and energy storage system providers, as demand continues to outpace supply [20][19] Group 4: Real Estate Market Analysis - The real estate market is facing challenges, with a notable decline in sales volume and prices, indicating ongoing pressure in the sector [21][22] - The report anticipates a continued low-level fluctuation in the market, with potential policy adjustments expected after the Spring Festival [23]