Core Viewpoint - Chinese stocks continue to benefit from the AI technology wave and ample liquidity, with reasonable valuations, although increased volatility is expected towards year-end, and no signals of a market peak have been observed, suggesting an overweight position [1] Group 1: Chinese Market Outlook - The recommendation is to maintain an overweight position in Chinese stocks due to the ongoing benefits from AI technology and liquidity [1] - Internal style within the Chinese market is becoming more balanced [1] Group 2: U.S. Market Outlook - The bullish logic for the U.S. stock market is similar, but concerns about high valuations and lower elasticity during the U.S. dollar depreciation cycle suggest a neutral position [1] - There is a significant risk in chasing high valuations in the U.S. market [1] Group 3: Bond Market Analysis - Chinese interest rates may continue to decline, but the valuation of Chinese bonds is considered expensive, limiting upside potential, leading to a recommendation for underweight [1] - U.S. Treasuries benefit from the Federal Reserve's easing cycle but face mid-term inflation and debt risks, resulting in a neutral stance [1] Group 4: Commodity and Gold Strategy - Commodities are recommended to be adjusted from underweight to neutral, as they can hedge against risks from changes in gold and stock trends and benefit from post-liquidity easing [1] - Gold is favored due to the Federal Reserve's easing cycle and restructuring of monetary order, but its valuation is considered expensive, suggesting an overweight position while advising against chasing prices and recommending accumulation on dips [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is entering a critical window, with the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session held from October 20 to 23, drawing significant market attention and prompting numerous brokerages to release research reports analyzing its potential impact on the capital market [1] Group 1: Market Trends and Opportunities - The capital market is expected to show a "long-term" and "steady" trend during the "15th Five-Year Plan," with key areas of focus including digital technology, space economy, high-end manufacturing, domestic consumption, and biotechnology [2] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to create investment opportunities driven by the restructuring of the global monetary system, the AI wave, and China's manufacturing advantages [2] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" may emphasize "investing in people," leading to significant market changes and opportunities in consumption, education, healthcare, and skills training [3] Group 2: Economic Growth and Policy Focus - The average GDP growth rate needs to be maintained at over 4.5% to achieve the goal of doubling GDP by 2035, with a focus on modernizing the industrial system and expanding domestic demand [4][5] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to prioritize policy measures that enhance investment efficiency, establish a comprehensive productivity index system, and ensure high-level security across various sectors [6] - The plan may further strengthen the focus on technology, with potential beneficiaries in sectors such as computing, electronics, and renewable energy [7] Group 3: Strategic Goals and Recommendations - The core strategic goals for the "15th Five-Year Plan" include maintaining reasonable economic growth, improving labor productivity, increasing R&D investment intensity, and enhancing green transformation efforts [8][9] - Six policy recommendations include building a modern industrial system centered on new productivity, deepening reform and opening up, promoting green low-carbon transformation, and enhancing governance efficiency [9][10] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a critical five-year period for achieving high-quality economic development, green transformation, and key sector reforms [12][13]

Report Title - Stock Index Monthly Report: The AI technology wave is still spreading, and domestic macro policies are worth looking forward to [2] Core Views - **Macro**: In the short term, macro disturbances at home and abroad will continue in October. Overseas, focus on the Fed's interest rate decision at the end of October and whether employment and inflation data support rate cuts. In China, there will be a series of macro events in October, and overall, short - term macro disturbances to the market will increase, but medium - to - long - term policy guidance is still bullish [4]. - **Mesoeconomics**: New home sales in the real estate market have recovered under policy stimulus and the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. The service industry is structurally differentiated and remains resilient at high levels. The profitability of cyclical enterprises recovers weakly, consumer subsidies restart, and manufacturing exports re - balance after tariff policy disturbances. The domestic economy remains in a weak reality stage, and attention should be paid to weak recovery opportunities under anti - involution and domestic demand - boosting policies [4]. - **Funds**: Domestic liquidity is generally loose, and overseas liquidity tends to be loose under the optimistic expectation of Fed rate cuts. The stock market has obtained leveraged funds and funds from the transfer of household deposits, but the pressure of restricted stock sales continues to increase, market divergence emerges, and it is more difficult to push the market higher after reaching a high level [4]. - **Valuation**: After a short - term sharp rise, the valuations of various indices have entered relatively high historical levels. The stock - bond risk premium at home and abroad is low, and the attractiveness of allocation funds is average [4]. - **Strategy**: Currently, the valuation of the broad - based index market is high, especially for the growth style. The risk premium index at home and abroad has dropped to a low level, and the attractiveness of the stock market has decreased marginally. However, excess liquidity has accelerated the entry of speculative funds. In October, with macro - policy expectations and the valuation switch in the fourth quarter, the cyclical style has room for a supplementary rise. Without significant macro - negatives, the market is expected to rise inertia - ally, but volatility and risks at high levels will increase. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy for stock indices in October, buy IF and IH on sharp drops, or focus on short - term arbitrage opportunities by going long on IH and IF and short on IM and IC [4]. Market Review Global Stock Market Performance - In the past month, the Hang Seng Tech Index led the rise, while the German stock market led the decline. The performance order is Hang Seng Tech > ChiNext Index > FTSE Emerging Markets > Dow Jones Index > Nikkei 225 > CSI 300 > NASDAQ > FTSE Europe > Shanghai Composite Index > German DAX [8]. Industry Performance - In the past month, the new energy sector led the rise, while the comprehensive finance sector led the decline. The order is new energy > non - ferrous metals > electronics > real estate > automobiles... > commercial retail > non - bank finance > military industry > banks > comprehensive finance [12]. Futures Performance - In the past month, the basis rates of the four major stock index futures (IH, IF, IC, and IM) changed by 0.04%, 0.15%, 1.15%, and 1.36% respectively, with the discounts of IC and IM narrowing significantly. The inter - period spread rates (between the current month and the next month) of the four major stock index futures changed by 0.05%, - 0.08%, - 0.09%, and - 0.12% respectively, with the inter - period discounts of IF, IC, and IM expanding slightly. The inter - period spread rates (between the next quarter and the current month) changed by 0%, 0.15%, 0.77%, and 0.73% respectively, with the long - term discounts of IC and IM converging significantly [20]. Fund Flows Margin Trading and Market - Stabilizing Funds - In September, margin trading funds inflowed 167.39 billion yuan to reach 2.43 trillion yuan. The proportion of margin trading balance to the circulating market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased significantly by 0.13% to 2.54%. The scale of passive stock ETF funds was 3,696.29 billion yuan, an increase of 190.78 billion yuan from the previous month. The share was 2062.01 billion shares, with a net subscription of 73.41 billion shares from the previous month, and a net subscription of 21.02 billion shares in the latest week, with the scale increasing by 88.37 billion yuan [23]. Industrial Capital - In September, equity financing was 155.34 billion yuan, with 8 companies. Among them, IPO financing was 10.63 billion yuan, private placement was 144.71 billion yuan, and convertible bond financing was 3.5 billion yuan. The equity financing scale rebounded significantly to a neutral level. The market value of restricted stock sales (including additional issuance, placement, rights issue, and equity incentives) in September was 305.54 billion yuan, a decrease of 233.77 billion yuan from the previous month, and it was the second consecutive month of reduction this year, with a cumulative reduction of 2,586.82 billion yuan this year [26]. Liquidity Monetary Injection - In September, the central bank's OMO reverse repurchase matured at 6,949.4 billion yuan, and the reverse repurchase injection was 7,339.6 billion yuan, with a net monetary injection of 39.02 billion yuan. The liquidity in the open - market business remained loose. The MLF injection in September was 600 billion yuan, and the maturity was 300 billion yuan, with a net injection of 30 billion yuan. MLF has had a net injection for 7 consecutive months, and the overall liquidity supply is relatively loose [28]. Monetary Demand - In August, the issuance of national bonds was 1,490.49 billion yuan, and the maturity was 762.12 billion yuan, with a net monetary demand of 728.37 billion yuan. The issuance of local bonds was 851.9 billion yuan, and the maturity was 405.9 billion yuan, with a net monetary demand of 446 billion yuan. The issuance of other bonds was 5,760.34 billion yuan, and the maturity was 5,825.27 billion yuan, with a net monetary demand of 64.92 billion yuan. The total bond market issuance was 8,102.74 billion yuan, and the maturity was 6,993.29 billion yuan, with a net monetary demand of 1,109.44 billion yuan. The debt financing demand in the bond market is strong, driven by the front - loading of financing demand for national and local government bonds [31]. Fund Prices - In September, DR007, R001, and SHIBOR overnight rates changed by - 7.8bp, 11.4bp, and 4.8bp respectively to 1.44%, 1.53%, and 1.38%. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit rebounded by 10.3bp, and the CD rate issued by joint - stock banks dropped by 1bp to 1.66%. The fund rate is significantly lower than the 1 - year MLF rate of 2% and slightly higher than the policy rate DR007 of 1.44%. The fund supply is loose, the debt financing demand is strong, and the fund price generally rebounded slightly at a low level [34]. Term Structure - In September, the yield of the 10 - year national bond changed by 1.9bp, the yield of the 5 - year national bond changed by - 2.4bp, and the yield of the 2 - year national bond changed by 8.6bp. The yield of the 10 - year policy - bank bond changed by 16.1bp, the yield of the 5 - year policy - bank bond changed by 3.2bp, and the yield of the 2 - year policy - bank bond changed by 4.7bp. Overall, the yield term structure flattened significantly in September. The credit spread between national bonds and policy - bank bonds widened significantly at both the long and short ends, highlighting a strong expectation of broad credit [38]. Sino - US Interest Rate Spread - In September, the yield of the US 10 - year Treasury bond changed by - 7.0bp to 4.18%, the inflation expectation changed by - 5.0bp to 2.34%, and the real interest rate changed by - 2.00bp to 1.84%. The price of risk assets strengthened due to the improvement of financial conditions. The 10 - 2Y spread of US Treasury bonds changed by - 8.00bp to 58.00bp. The inversion of the Sino - US interest rate spread narrowed by 8.92bp to - 232.30bp, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.1%. The US dollar against the RMB returned to a level slightly below the central range of the past three years and was supported [41]. Macroeconomic Fundamentals Real Estate Demand - As of October 2, the weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.4702 million square meters, a seasonal rebound from 1.906 million square meters in the previous week, returning to the neutral level of the same period. Compared with the same period in 2019 before the epidemic, it decreased by 17.1%. Second - hand housing sales decreased seasonally, with a significant month - on - month decline, and were at a relatively low level in the past seven years. The real estate market sales have generally recovered, and attention should be paid to whether macro policies in October will further boost the real estate market [44]. Service Industry Activities - As of August 29, the weekly average daily subway passenger volume in 28 large - and medium - sized cities across the country remained at a high level, reaching 84.23 million person - times, a year - on - year increase of 4.5% and a 51% increase compared with the same period in 2021. The economic activities in the service industry remained at a high level, mainly driven by the peak of the tourism season. The traffic congestion delay index in 100 cities rebounded slightly from the previous week, at a relatively high neutral level in the past three years. Overall, the economic activities in the service industry tend to grow naturally and steadily, with a slight strengthening in monthly changes [47]. Manufacturing Tracking - In September, the capacity utilization rate of the manufacturing industry rebounded comprehensively. The capacity utilization rate of steel mills changed by 0.63%, the capacity utilization rate of asphalt changed by 10.8%, the capacity utilization rate of cement clinker enterprises changed by 21.23%, the capacity utilization rate of coke enterprises changed by 1.77%, and the average operating rate of the chemical industry chain related to external demand changed by 1.44% from the previous week. On the one hand, the anti - involution policy led to an increase in capacity utilization; on the other hand, the domestic and external demand of the manufacturing industry continued to recover [51]. Freight and Passenger Flows - Freight and passenger flows remained at relatively high levels. The weekly marginal decline was observed in the fields of postal express delivery dominated by e - commerce and civil aviation flights dominated by tourism consumption. Highway transportation was relatively weak with limited growth, while railway transportation rebounded significantly, highlighting the re - balance of the manufacturing industry after the implementation of tariff policies, showing certain resilience [56]. Import and Export - In terms of exports, the tariff policies of the US against major countries have been finalized, and global trade has entered a re - balance stage. China's exports have continued to grow strongly. China and the US are expected to negotiate again at the end of October or early November to discuss whether to extend the tariff exemption period. After the counter - seasonal strength of exports in the third quarter, there may be pressure in the fourth quarter [59]. Overseas Situation - US inflation remained resilient in August, and high - frequency data in September showed that it may continue to be resilient. Although Fed officials mentioned preventive rate cuts, the financial market still maintains an optimistic expectation of Fed rate cuts. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice in 2025, with a total cut of about 50bp, at the points of October and December. The probability of a rate cut in October has increased to a high level of 92.5%, and the probability in December is also as high as 81.4%. The end - of - year interest rate after rate cuts is expected to be in the range of 3.5% - 3.75%. If the core inflation remains around 2.8%, the real interest rate is expected to drop to 1%, which will be beneficial to risk assets [66]. Other Analyses Valuation - The stock - bond risk premium was 2.56% last month, a decrease of 0.08% from the previous month, at the 43.9% quantile. The foreign capital risk premium index was 3.42%, a decrease of 0.21% from the previous month, at the 16.8% quantile. The attractiveness of foreign capital was at a relatively low level. The valuations of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were at the 86.8%, 86.7%, 98.9%, and 84.4% quantiles of the past five years respectively, and their relative valuations were not low. The valuation quantiles changed by - 3.7%, 2.4%, 4.5%, and 1.9% respectively from the previous month, and the attractiveness of each broad - based index continued to decline [68][70]. Quantitative Diagnosis - According to the seasonal law analysis, the stock market is in a stage of seasonal volatile rise and structural differentiation in October. The cyclical style is dominant, and the growth style generally fluctuates at a high level. Overall, the stock market has a good profit - making effect in October, and the style is easy to switch. Considering the high valuation of the growth style and the bullish macro - policy expectation in October, attention should be paid to the supplementary rise of the cyclical style and the opportunity of the growth style switching to AI applications. Buy IF and IH on sharp drops, and adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy for IC and IM [75].

Core Viewpoint - Fund managers are adopting different strategies in the current market, with a preference for right-side trading that focuses on high certainty and strong momentum in industry trends [1][2] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The strategy of high concentration and low turnover is favored to achieve long-term returns, requiring patience and a deep understanding of industry trends [2][4] - The focus is on identifying opportunities in the "1 to 10" phase of industry trends, which offers strong signals and rapid valuation expansion [2][3] Group 2: AI Industry Outlook - The AI industry is seen as being in the "1 to 10" phase, with clear buy signals and significant growth potential, as evidenced by the increasing capital expenditure and high growth rates in North American cloud services driven by AI [3][4] - Long-term investment in AI is encouraged, as the market is still in the early stages of the technology wave, with many applications yet to emerge [3][4] Group 3: Valuation Tolerance - Market tolerance for stock valuations is increasing, with acceptable ranges varying based on industry understanding and growth expectations [4][5] - The current high valuations in tech stocks are not viewed as bubbles, as they are supported by strong growth prospects and market conditions [4][5] Group 4: Focus on Core Industries - There is a strong emphasis on investing in core industries that reflect China's advantages, particularly in AI technology, robotics, and automotive intelligence [6][7] - The semiconductor sector is highlighted as having cyclical patterns, with a current upward trend driven by AI and new technologies, particularly favoring leading companies in wafer manufacturing [7][8]

长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 张璐 近日，"电子布"厂商宏和科技（603256.SH）动作频频，在资本市场上引发广泛关注。 9月19日晚，宏和科技发布公告，为满足公司全资子公司黄石宏和电子材料科技有限公司（以下简称"黄 石宏和"）业务经营需要，公司拟以债转股方式对黄石宏和进行增资3亿元，黄石宏和注册资本拟由7亿 元增加至10亿元。 宏和科技表示，黄石宏和为公司的全资子公司，本次增资将有助于进一步推进黄石宏和的业务发展，提 升公司整体实力。 2025年上半年，公司凭借高端产品批量交付实现业绩爆发，其营收、净利润分别同比增长35%、 10588%。 长江商报记者注意到，二级市场上，截至2025年9月22日，宏和科技股价报收40.3元/股，年内涨幅高达 382.63%，最新总市值达354.5亿元，市场预期持续向好。 根据公告，宏和科技拟以债转股方式对黄石宏和进行增资3亿元，黄石宏和注册资本拟由7亿元增加至10 亿元。 3亿债转股增资子公司拓业务 9月19日，宏和科技召开第四届董事会第九次会议，审议通过了《关于公司以债转股方式向全资子公司 增资的议案》。此次增资完成后，黄石宏和的注册资本将大幅提升，这有助于增强其资金 ...

Group 1 - On August 5, 2025, southbound capital transactions reached HKD 129.701 billion, accounting for 56.54% of the total turnover of the Hang Seng Index, with a net inflow of HKD 23.426 billion, setting a new single-day net buying record since April 9, 2025 [1] - The technology and non-essential consumer sectors topped the net buying list, indicating a growing confidence and allocation enthusiasm from southbound capital towards Hong Kong's technology and new economy sectors [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index has seen increased capital attention, with the Hang Seng Technology ETF (513130) attracting HKD 3.026 billion in the past week, averaging daily turnover of HKD 4.797 billion, making it the only product tracking the index to accumulate over HKD 2.6 billion during the same period [1] Group 2 - As of August 5, 2025, the Hang Seng Technology ETF (513130) reached a record size of HKD 30.907 billion and 4.2356 billion shares, marking historical highs and continuous growth over four trading days [2] - The ETF has a broad investor base, with over 160,000 investors holding it, making it one of the two ETFs tracking the Hang Seng Technology Index with more than 70,000 holders, reflecting strong market recognition [2] - Despite recent performance pressures due to a price war in the food delivery sector, positive signals are emerging as regulatory discussions have led to commitments from delivery platforms to standardize promotional behaviors, potentially alleviating negative impacts on the technology sector [2] Group 3 - The Hang Seng Technology ETF (513130) closely tracks the Hang Seng Technology Index, with its top five constituents being Tencent Holdings, NetEase, Xiaomi, Alibaba, and Kuaishou, representing competitive industry leaders across key sectors such as internet platforms, new energy vehicles, semiconductors, and AI [3] - With the support of southbound capital and the gradual implementation of "anti-involution" policies, adverse factors hindering the development of Hong Kong's technology sector are expected to diminish, suggesting a potential return of core investment value [3] - The current price-to-earnings ratio of the Hang Seng Technology Index is at a low of 22% over the past five years, indicating a significant investment window [3]

Group 1: Innovation Drug Sector Performance - The Innovation Drug ETF (560900) increased by 3.86%, with a turnover of 9.64% and a transaction volume of 3.1137 million yuan [1] - The CSI Innovation Drug Industry Index (931152) rose by 3.77%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Baili Tianheng (688506) up by 10.71%, Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (002317) up by 9.99%, and BeiGene (688235) up by 8.14% [1] - The ADA conference is highlighted as a significant platform for Chinese innovative drug companies to showcase their GLP-1 research capabilities, potentially boosting the GLP-1 industry chain [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Technology - Morgan Asset Management is integrating its "Global Vision Investment Technology" product line to assist investors in identifying quality technology companies globally amid a new wave of AI-driven technological advancements [2] - The actively managed Morgan Emerging Power Fund aims to capture emerging industry trends, while the Morgan Smart Connectivity Fund focuses on opportunities in the AI sector [2] - The Morgan Pacific Technology Fund selects quality technology companies in the Pacific region, indicating a strategic focus on high-growth sectors [2] Group 3: Passive Investment Products - The Morgan Hang Seng Technology ETF (QDII) allows for easy exposure to Hong Kong tech assets, while the Morgan CSI Innovation Drug Industry ETF (560900) provides access to Chinese innovative drug companies [3] - The Morgan NASDAQ 100 Index Fund (QDII) offers a straightforward way to invest in global technology leaders [3]

Global Economic Outlook - The United Nations projects global economic growth to slow to 2.4% in 2025, down from 2.9% in 2024, indicating a significant decline [1] - Global trade growth is expected to plummet from 3.3% in 2024 to 1.6% in 2025, with developing countries facing multiple challenges including reduced exports and tightening financing conditions [1] - Inflation is anticipated to be 3.6% in 2025, higher than earlier predictions, reflecting a deceleration in the overall decline of inflation levels [1] China Urban Planning - The newly released 2025 version of the "National Land Space Planning Urban Health Assessment Regulations" emphasizes a people-centered approach and introduces new indicators for urban planning [3] - The regulations aim to enhance urban infrastructure and ensure a balanced development of urban areas, addressing issues like traffic congestion and inadequate facilities [3][4] Japanese Economic Performance - Japan's economy contracted for the first time in a year, with a 0.2% decline in Q1 2025, contrasting with a 0.6% growth in the previous quarter [5] - The Bank of Japan has revised its GDP growth forecasts downwards for the next two fiscal years, reflecting ongoing economic challenges [5][6] UK Immigration Policy - The UK government has introduced stringent measures to reduce immigration, including tightening visa standards and extending the residency requirement for permanent residency [7][8] - The policy aims to address labor market imbalances and public service demands following a surge in immigration during the pandemic [8] Automotive Industry Performance - Geely Automobile reported a 264% increase in net profit for Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 72.495 billion yuan, driven by a record sales volume of 703,800 vehicles [9] - The company is undergoing strategic integration of its brands to enhance operational efficiency and market competitiveness [9][10] Alibaba Financial Results - Alibaba's revenue for the fiscal year 2025 was 996.347 billion yuan, a 6% increase year-on-year, with a notable performance in its core e-commerce and cloud services [11][12] - Despite growth in revenue, the company faces challenges in profitability due to high operational costs and external market pressures [11][12] NetEase Financial Performance - NetEase reported a 36% increase in net profit for Q1 2025, with total revenue of 28.8 billion yuan, primarily driven by its gaming segment [13] - The company is focusing on enhancing the performance of existing games while optimizing its marketing strategies to improve profitability [13][14]

Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing shifts in the global biopharmaceutical market due to multiple rounds of tariff changes initiated by the U.S., which are reshaping the industry landscape amid geopolitical uncertainties, accelerated merger trends, and the impact of AI technology [1]. Group 1: Event Overview - The ChinaBio International Cooperation Conference will feature a private dinner hosted by Bloomberg, focusing on the new dynamics of the U.S.-China biopharmaceutical landscape [1]. - The dinner will include a keynote speech on the new prospects for the biopharmaceutical industry in the "Trump 2.0" era and a thematic discussion on the development paths of Chinese pharmaceutical companies in light of geopolitical factors, merger trends, and AI technology [1]. Group 2: Key Speakers - Dr. Yang Dajun, co-founder, chairman, and CEO of Ascentage Pharma, will be a keynote speaker [1]. - Cao Ping, Senior Vice President and Chief Business Development Officer of Innovent Biologics, will also participate in the discussions [1].