PMI指数

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宏观经济周报-20250825
工银国际· 2025-08-25 07:16
Economic Performance - The ICHI Composite Economic Index shows continued expansion, indicating a strengthening economic momentum in China[1] - The Consumer Confidence Index has significantly risen, returning to the expansion zone and reaching a new high in nearly a month[1] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, supported by consumption policies[2] Investment and Production - Manufacturing investment grew by 6.2%, with high-tech industries seeing investment growth rates exceeding 15%[2] - The Production Index has improved significantly, with capacity utilization rates rising, contributing to economic growth[1] - Exports increased by 7.3% year-on-year, showcasing resilience in external trade despite a global slowdown[2] Employment and Inflation - The urban survey unemployment rate in July remained stable at 5.2%, consistent with the previous year[2] - In the UK, July CPI rose by 3.8%, the fastest increase in 18 months, driven by higher prices in travel and fuel[6] - The US labor market shows signs of cooling, with initial jobless claims rising to 235,000, the highest since June[6]
集运日报:悲观情绪略有修复,主力合约宽幅震荡,近期波动较大,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损。-20250815
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 06:14
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that due to the combination of geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the complexity of market games is high. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. Although the market's macro - sentiment has slightly recovered, the multi - empty game is intense, and the market is in a wide - range shock. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [2][5]. 3. Key Points by Content Freight Index - On August 11, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2235.48 points, down 2.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1082.14 points, down 4.2% from the previous period [3]. - On August 8, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1257.71 points, down 8.37% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1042.91 points, down 6.42% from the previous period [3]. - On August 8, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1489.68 points, down 61.06 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1961 USD/TEU, down 4.39% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 9.80% from the previous period [3]. - On August 8, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the European route was 1799.05 points, up 0.5% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 827.84 points, down 5.6% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - The eurozone's July manufacturing PMI was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7, and the previous value was 49.5; the service PMI was 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7, and the previous value was 50.5; the composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8, and the previous value was 50.6. The July SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5 [3]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - The US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7; the service PMI was 55.2, higher than the expected 53; the composite PMI was 54.6, a new high since December 2024 [4]. Market Conditions - On August 14, the main contract 2510 closed at 1359.5, down 0.18%, with a trading volume of 3.21 million lots and an open interest of 56,700 lots, a decrease of 4042 lots from the previous day [5]. - The market sentiment has slightly recovered, but due to the stabilization of market freight rates, the multi - empty game is intense, and the market is in a wide - range shock. After the close, except for the main contract, other contracts have increased [5]. Trade Policy - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has not made substantial progress, and the tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased [5]. Geopolitical Situation - On August 13, Hamas proposed a cease - fire request to Egypt, including asking Israel to agree in writing to permanently end the war and abandon any plan to occupy Gaza and provide international guarantees. Hamas negotiation representatives arrived in Egypt this week to restart the cease - fire and hostage release negotiations [5]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - preference investors, they can try to go long lightly around 1300 on the 2510 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation instability, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent trend [5]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [5]. - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [5]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5].
广发期货《金融》日报-20250812
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:33
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views The reports present daily data on various futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping futures, along with related indicators such as spreads, basis, and price ratios, to help investors understand market trends and price relationships. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Price Spreads**: Provides current values, changes from the previous day, 1 - year and all - time historical quantiles for various stock index futures spreads, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, covering both spot - futures spreads and inter - delivery spreads [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Presents ratios and their changes for different cross - variety combinations, such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., along with their historical quantiles [1]. Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Basis**: Shows the basis, its change, and the percentile since listing for different treasury bond futures (TS, TF, T, TL), as well as the internal rate of return (IRR) for TS [2]. - **Inter - Delivery Spreads**: Reports the inter - delivery spreads and their changes and historical percentiles for different treasury bond futures contracts [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Provides cross - variety spreads and their changes for different combinations of treasury bond futures [2]. Precious Metal Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Prices**: Presents domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, and their changes and percentage changes for gold and silver [4]. - **Basis**: Reports the basis, its change, and historical 1 - year quantiles for different combinations of precious metal spot and futures [4]. - **Price Ratios**: Shows price ratios and their changes for different precious metal combinations [4]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: Provides data on 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, 10 - year TIPS Treasury yields, the US dollar index, and the offshore RMB exchange rate, along with their changes [4]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: Reports inventory and holding data and their changes for precious metals in different markets [4]. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Spot Quotes**: Presents spot quotes and their changes for different shipping companies on the Shanghai - Europe route [6]. - **Container Shipping Indexes**: Provides settlement price indexes and their changes for different container shipping routes, as well as Shanghai export container freight rates and their changes [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Reports futures prices, their changes, and basis data for container shipping futures contracts [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Includes data on global container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators, monthly export amounts, and overseas economic indicators, along with their changes [6]. Overseas and Domestic Data/Information Report - **Overseas Data**: Lists economic indicators and financial events in the eurozone and the US, including economic sentiment indexes, inflation rates, and small - business confidence indexes [9]. - **Domestic Data**: Presents economic indicators and events in different domestic sectors, such as port inventories, to - port forecasts, and production - sales ratios [9].
集运日报:大宗市场整体偏暖,但班轮公司小幅下调运价,盘面冲高回落,近期波动较大,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损。-20250807
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 06:21
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bulk market is generally warm, but liner companies have slightly lowered freight rates. The market has fluctuated significantly recently, and it is not recommended to increase positions. Stop - loss should be set [2]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [5]. 3. Summary According to Related Content Market Indexes and Economic Data - On August 4, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 2297.86 points, down 0.8% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 1130.12 points, down 12.0%. On August 1, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 1087.66 points, down 2.06%; NCFI (European route) was 1372.67 points, down 3.53%; NCFI (US West route) was 1114.45 points, down 0.54% [3]. - On August 1, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI published price was 1550.74 points, down 41.85 points from the previous period; SCFI European route price was 2051 USD/TEU, down 1.86%; SCFI US West route was 2021 USD/FEU, down 2.23%. The China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 1232.29 points, down 2.3%; CCFI (European route) was 1789.50 points, up 0.1%; CCFI (US West route) was 876.57 points, down 0.5% [3]. - The eurozone's July manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the services PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7; the composite PMI preliminary value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8. The July SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [3]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7; the services PMI preliminary value was 55.2, higher than the expected 53; the Markit composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, the highest since December 2024 [4]. Policy and Market Situation - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, hitting re - export trade. The Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. The spot market price range is set, with a 25% small price increase to test the market, and the market rebounded slightly [5]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may mainly rebound. Risk - takers are advised to take light positions below 1300 in the 2510 contract (already with a profit margin of over 300 points) and take partial profits. For the EC2512 contract, light - position short - selling has been recommended, and profit - taking is advised. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international situation turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive arbitrage structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [5]. - Long - term strategy: For each contract, it is recommended to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then judge the subsequent trend [5]. Contract Information - On August 6, the main contract 2510 closed at 1420.1, up 0.64%, with a trading volume of 48,600 lots and an open interest of 54,400 lots, an increase of 2253 lots from the previous day [5]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5].
国际金融市场早知道:8月6日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-06 01:04
【资讯导读】 ·多家国际金融机构警示美股下跌风险 ·美国7月ISM非制造业指数不及预期 ·欧盟暂停对美关税反制多个成员国批评软弱 ·巴西拟就美加征关税提请世贸组织磋商 【市场资讯】 ·多家国际大型金融机构4日警示客户,随着美股上市企业估值高企遭遇美国经济数据不断恶化,应为美 股股价下跌做准备。美国摩根士丹利银行、德意志银行和美国埃弗科国际战略和投资集团当日均警告, 标准普尔500指数短期内面临下跌风险。 ·美联社-NORC公共事务研究中心一项最新民意调查显示,在物价持续上涨和对美国特朗普政府关税政 策影响普遍关注等因素作用下,大部分美国成年人为日用品价格感到焦虑。 ·美国7月ISM非制造业指数由前值50.8降至50.1,不及预期的51.5。新订单几乎接近停滞,就业萎缩,价 格指数则创2022年10月新高。另外,美国7月标普全球服务业PMI终值为55.7,创2024年12月以来最 高。 ·欧元区7月综合PMI终值为50.9,较6月的50.6小幅回升,并创四个月新高。西班牙、意大利、德国综合 PMI均有所增长,法国是唯一一个出现收缩的主要欧元区经济体。 ·欧盟委员会发言人奥洛夫·吉尔5日表示,欧盟决定暂停原定于8 ...
金十数据全球财经早餐 | 2025年8月6日
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-08-05 23:02
Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US non-manufacturing PMI unexpectedly declined from 50.8 in June to 50.1 in July, below the expected 51.5 [12] - The ISM new orders index fell from 51.3 in June to 50.3, marking the fourth consecutive month of contraction in export orders [12] Group 2: Market Performance - The US stock market saw declines across major indices, with the Dow Jones down 0.1%, S&P 500 down 0.49%, and Nasdaq down 0.65% [4] - In contrast, European indices mostly rose, with Germany's DAX30 up 0.37% and the UK FTSE 100 up 0.16% [4] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index increased by 0.68%, closing at 24,902.53 points, with a total market turnover of 229.39 billion HKD [4] Group 3: Commodity Prices - Spot gold prices rose by 0.22% to $3,380.86 per ounce, reaching a near two-week high [6] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 1.64% to $64.59 per barrel, marking a five-week low, while Brent crude oil dropped by 1.52% to $67.49 per barrel [6] Group 4: Government Policies - The Chinese government announced plans to gradually implement free preschool education, starting from the fall semester of 2025 [12] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is working to strengthen constraints on third-party market fraud [12]
美国7月ISM服务业PMI仅50.1,就业萎缩,价格创2022年10月新高
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-05 22:28
Core Viewpoint - The ISM services PMI data indicates a stagnating U.S. services sector due to weak demand and rising costs, leading to a reduction in workforce [1][4]. Group 1: PMI Data Analysis - The ISM non-manufacturing index for July is reported at 50.1, below the expected 51.5 and the previous value of 50.8, indicating near stagnation [1]. - The new orders index has dropped to 50.3, approaching a standstill [2]. - The employment index has decreased to 46.4, marking the fourth contraction in five months and one of the lowest levels since the pandemic [2]. Group 2: Price and Inventory Trends - The prices index for raw materials and services has risen to 69.9, the highest level since October 2022 [2]. - Backlogged orders have decreased for the fifth consecutive month, and inventory expansion has slowed, with the inventory sentiment index falling nearly 4 points to 53.2, the lowest since October of the previous year [2]. Group 3: Economic Context and Market Reaction - Analysts suggest that the ISM PMI data reflects a weak U.S. services economy grappling with higher tariffs, cautious consumer attitudes, and uncertainties from government policies [4]. - Following the PMI data release, U.S. stock markets turned negative, with the Nasdaq 100 dropping nearly 0.7% after previously gaining [5]. - The divergence between the ISM services PMI and the stronger Markit services PMI, which reported a final value of 55.7, indicates contrasting economic signals [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The overall business sentiment has declined, with manufacturing and services confidence weakening, suggesting potential downward risks for growth in the coming months [9]. - Despite the current economic challenges, there are indications of a potential rebound in growth driven by increased demand in the technology sector and financial services [8].
瑞达期货股指期货全景日报-20250805
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 08:28
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Core View of the Report - A - share major indices rose collectively, with large - cap blue - chip stocks slightly stronger than small and medium - cap stocks. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.96%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.59%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.39%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded significantly. The domestic economic fundamentals showed a decline in the official manufacturing PMI in July, and the decline in manufacturing sentiment had a negative impact on market sentiment. Although the US - China trade reached a 90 - day tariff truce extension, the market is expected to enter a wide - range shock due to the decline of the three domestic PMI indices in July and the lack of incremental policies after the Politburo meeting. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - IF main contract (2509) was at 4082.0, up 34.0; IF sub - main contract (2508) was at 4095.0, up 35.0. IH main contract (2509) was at 2791.0, up 23.0; IH sub - main contract (2508) was at 2789.4, up 22.2. IC main contract (2509) was at 6198.6, up 40.8; IC sub - main contract (2508) was at 6265.4, up 44.8. IM main contract (2509) was at 6682.0, up 59.4; IM sub - main contract (2508) was at 6754.4, up 60.0 [2]. - The spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1305.6, up 10.6; the IC - IF current - month contract spread was 2170.4, up 5.0 [2]. - The differences between quarterly and current - month contracts varied. For instance, IF current - quarter - current - month was - 44.0, down 0.4; IH current - quarter - current - month was 3.4, up 1.4 [2]. Futures Positions - IF top 20 net positions were - 28,119.00, up 31.0; IH top 20 net positions were - 15,955.00, down 81.0. IC top 20 net positions were - 14,642.00, up 452.0; IM top 20 net positions were - 48,013.00, up 1277.0 [2]. Spot Prices - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was at 4103.45, up 32.8; the Shanghai 50 was at 2790.73, up 21.3. The CSI 500 was at 6303.24, up 41.5; the CSI 1000 was at 6787.48, up 47.8 [2]. - The basis of each main contract also changed. For example, the IF main contract basis was - 21.4, down 3.5; the IH main contract basis was 0.3, down 0.7 [2]. Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume was 16,158.21 billion yuan, up 976.19 billion yuan; margin trading balance was 19,913.13 billion yuan, up 114.56 billion yuan. North - bound trading volume was 1946.91 billion yuan, down 229.21 billion yuan [2]. - The proportion of rising stocks was 72.04%, up 0.48%. Shibor was 1.315%, up 0.001% [2]. Industry News - In July, the domestic official manufacturing PMI declined from the previous month and had been in the contraction range for 4 consecutive months. The non - manufacturing PMI and the composite PMI were still above the boom - bust line but also declined from the previous values [2]. - US President Trump signed an executive order to impose tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on countries or regions that have not reached an agreement with the US, and the tariffs will take effect on August 7, 2025 [2]. - The US non - farm payrolls in July increased by only 73,000, the lowest in 9 months, far less than the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2% [2]. Key Data to Watch - China's July trade data will be released on August 7 at 9:30; July financial data will be released on August 8 at 16:00; July PPI and CPI will be released on August 9 at 9:30 [3].
集运日报:多数大宗商品持续下跌,观望情绪较浓,盘面宽幅震荡,近期波动较大,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损。-20250804
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 06:27
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is challenging, and it's recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [2] - Due to the complex situation, short - term trading strategies should be cautious, and long - term strategies should wait for the market to stabilize [3] 3. Summary by Related Content SCFIS, NCFI, and Other Shipping Indexes - On August 1st, compared with the previous period, the NCFI (composite index) was 1087.66 points, down 2.06%; the SCFIS (European route) was 2400.50 points, down 0.9%; the NCFI (European route) was 1372.67 points, down 3.53%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1301.81 points, up 2.8%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1114.45 points, down 0.54% [1] - Also on August 1st, the SCFI was 1550.74 points, down 41.85 points; the CCFI (composite index) was 1232.29 points, down 2.3%; the SCFI European route price was 2051 USD/TEU, down 1.86%; the CCFI (European route) was 1789.50 points, up 0.1%; the SCFI US West route was 2021 USD/FEU, down 2.23%; the CCFI (US West route) was 876.57 points, down 0.5% [1] Economic Data of Different Regions - The Eurozone's July manufacturing PMI initial value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the service industry PMI was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7; the composite PMI initial value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8. The July SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [1] - In July, the US manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (expected 52.7), the service industry PMI initial value was 55.2 (expected 53), and the composite PMI initial value was 54.6, a new high since December 2024 [2] - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2] Market and Policy Influences - Trump's tariff hikes on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, have increased the difficulty of the game in the shipping market. Some shipping companies have announced price increases, and the Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1st [2] - The spot market has set a price range and made small price increases to test the market, leading to a small rebound in the market [2] Trading and Contract Information - On August 1st, the main contract 2510 closed at 1424.0, with a decline of 0.29%, a trading volume of 35,700 lots, and an open interest of 52,400 lots, an increase of 558 lots from the previous day [2] - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to take partial profits from the long positions in the 2510 contract below 1300 and short the EC2512 contract lightly and take profits. Set stop - losses [3] - Arbitrage strategy: Amid international turmoil, the market shows a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with a light position [3] - Long - term strategy: It's recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [3] - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, and the company's margin for these contracts is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all 2508 - 2606 contracts is 100 lots [3]
股指期货周报-20250801
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 08:50
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices declined collectively this week, and the four stock index futures also weakened. Large-cap blue-chip stocks were weaker than small and mid-cap stocks. The market trading activity declined slightly compared to last week, and the total trading volume of northbound funds has been above 900 billion yuan for four consecutive weeks. The domestic economic fundamentals showed a decline in the official manufacturing PMI in July, which has been in the contraction range for four consecutive months. Although the non-manufacturing PMI and the composite PMI remained above the boom-bust line, they also declined from the previous values. The decline in manufacturing sentiment had a negative impact on market sentiment. In terms of trade, China and the US reached a 90-day tariff truce extension as scheduled. In terms of policy, the Politburo meeting in July did not announce more incremental policies, which was weaker than market expectations. Overall, the third trade negotiation provided more flexibility for the market, but the decline of the three PMI indices in July indicated that the economic recovery still faced certain challenges. After the Politburo meeting, due to the full reaction of the market to the meeting expectations, in the absence of more-than-expected policies, the market bulls may take profit actions, and the stock index is expected to enter a wide-range shock. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being. [6][98] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Futures: IF2509 had a weekly decline of 2.10%, IH2509 declined 1.52%, IC2509 dropped 1.80%, and IM2509 fell 0.95%. - Spot: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index declined 1.75%, the Shanghai 50 Index dropped 1.48%, the CSI 500 Index fell 1.37%, and the CSI 1000 Index declined 0.54%. [9] 3.2 News Overview - From January to June, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 3.4365 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. The operating income was 66.78 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. In June, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year-on-year. - From July 28th to 29th, China and the US held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, and the two sides agreed to extend the suspension of the 24% US reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures for 90 days. - The Politburo meeting pointed out that macro policies should continue to exert force and increase force in a timely manner, implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, release domestic demand potential, expand high-level opening up, and resolve local government debt risks. - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2% respectively, a decrease of 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. [12][13][14] 3.3 Weekly Market Data - Domestic Main Indices: The Shanghai Composite Index declined 0.94%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.58%, the STAR 50 Index declined 1.65%, the SME 100 Index dropped 1.95%, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.74%. - Overseas Main Indices: The S&P 500 declined 0.77%, the FTSE 100 rose 0.14%, the Hang Seng Index declined 3.47%, and the Nikkei 225 declined 1.58%. - Industry Sector Performance: Industry sectors generally declined, with coal and non-ferrous metals sectors weakening significantly, while pharmaceutical and biological, communication and other sectors rising against the trend. - Industry Sector Main Fund Flow: Industry main funds generally showed a net outflow, with large net outflows in the computer and non-ferrous metals sectors, and small net inflows in the banking and transportation sectors. - SHIBOR Short-term Interest Rate: The SHIBOR short-term interest rate declined, and the capital price was low. - Restricted Share Lifting and Northbound Capital: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 7.52 billion yuan in the secondary market, and the market value of restricted shares lifted was 88.748 billion yuan. Northbound funds had a total trading volume of 955.947 billion yuan. - Futures Basis: The basis of the IF, IH, and IC main contracts fluctuated weakly, while the basis of the IM main contract fluctuated. [17][18][22][26][30][33][41][44][50][54] 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - Outlook: The stock index is expected to enter a wide-range shock. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see for the time being. [98]