Core Viewpoint - Apple's FY3Q25 revenue and profit exceeded expectations, with a notable performance in iPhone, Mac, and services, marking the strongest quarterly revenue growth since FY1Q22 [3] Group 1: Financial Performance - FY3Q25 revenue reached $94.04 billion, a year-over-year increase of 10%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of $89.3 billion [3] - Gross margin for the quarter was 46.5%, at the upper end of the previous guidance of 45.5%-46.5%, primarily due to lower-than-expected tariff impacts [3] - Net profit for FY3Q25 was $23.43 billion, a year-over-year increase of 9.3%, with basic EPS of $1.57, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of $1.43 [3] Group 2: Future Guidance - For FY4Q25, Apple expects mid-to-high single-digit year-over-year revenue growth, which is above market expectations [4] - The company anticipates service revenue growth to remain around 13%, similar to FY3Q25, assuming stable global tariff policies and no significant macroeconomic deterioration [4] - Projected gross margin for the next quarter is between 46%-47%, despite an expected $1.1 billion increase in costs due to tariffs [4] Group 3: iPhone Performance - FY3Q25 iPhone revenue was $44.58 billion, a year-over-year increase of 13%, significantly above Bloomberg's consensus estimate of $40.22 billion [5] - Global iPhone shipments for 2Q25 were 46.4 million units, a year-over-year increase of 1.5%, outperforming the overall smartphone market [5] - The growth in iPhone revenue was driven by preemptive consumer demand due to tariff concerns and strong sales of the iPhone 16 series, particularly in the Greater China region, which saw a 4% year-over-year revenue increase [5]

当地时间7月27日，美国总统特朗普与欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩在苏格兰举行了会晤。会后，特朗普表 示，美国已与欧盟达成新贸易协议，对欧盟输美商品征收15%的关税。 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩称，15%税率是欧委会能够达成的最佳结果。此外，钢铁和铝、芯片、烈酒三 大关键领域的关税协议仍待定。 而且以法德为代表的欧盟诸国，一直是想脱离美国的掌控，与美国进行对等谈判。之前在支援乌克兰问 题上，特朗普单方面和俄罗斯谈，断供乌克兰。但欧盟不认这个邪，单方面支援乌克兰，结果乌克兰也 没崩溃，照样打下去了。 理论上如今在关税问题上，欧盟也效仿中国，对美国丝毫不让，那结果或许也会博得一个公平的关税税 率。但冯德莱恩此次对美谈判，直接"缴械投降"，15%的关税虽说不算离谱，但也是凭空白给美国人的 利润。而且后面的附加条件更是要人老命。 但这还没完，特朗普称："欧盟还承诺购买美国7500亿美元的能源产品，并在美追加投资6000亿美元。 此外，欧盟将大规模购买美国军事装备"。 这就是冯德莱恩和特朗普谈后的欧盟与美国对等关税谈判结果。结果出来后，欧盟各国领导人瞬间坐不 住了，直接开喷。 匈牙利总理欧尔班在28日播出的网络节目中表示，欧盟与美 ...

Market Performance - U.S. stock indices collectively fell over 2% this week, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq down 2.36%, 2.92%, and 2.17% respectively[11] - The German DAX, London FTSE 100, Nikkei 225, and Korea Composite Index also experienced declines of 3.27%, 0.57%, 1.58%, and 2.40% respectively[11] Economic Data - Non-farm payroll data was significantly below expectations, with a downward revision of 258,000 jobs in the previous two months, leading to increased concerns about economic momentum[5] - The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, consistent with expectations, primarily influenced by immigration effects[5] Federal Reserve Insights - The FOMC meeting maintained interest rates, with a cautious stance on potential rate cuts in September, dropping the probability of a cut below 40% initially[29] - Following the disappointing non-farm data, market expectations for a 25 basis point cut in September surged to 80.3%, with predictions for three rate cuts in total this year[29] Currency and Bond Market - The U.S. dollar index rose by 1.04% over the week, while the euro and Chinese yuan fell by 1.32% and 0.11% respectively[11] - U.S. Treasury yields saw significant declines, with the 2-year yield down 22 basis points and the 10-year yield down 17 basis points by August 1[12] Commodity Market - Gold prices increased by 0.93% amid rising inflation concerns due to tariffs, while copper prices plummeted by 23.88% following a 50% tariff announcement on certain copper products[13] - WTI crude oil prices rose by 3.37% during the week[13] Trade and Tariff Developments - President Trump announced new tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on various imports, with a 40% transit tax on transshipped goods, effective August 7[34] - Tariff concerns have heightened market volatility and investor caution, impacting overall market sentiment[11]

Core Viewpoint - Apple has successfully reversed its declining revenue trend in Greater China by implementing price reductions, leading to a record high revenue in Q2 of fiscal year 2025 [2][6]. Financial Performance - In Q2, Apple reported revenue of $94.036 billion, a 10% increase from $85.777 billion year-over-year, and a net profit of $23.434 billion, up 9% from $21.448 billion [2]. - Revenue from iPhone reached approximately $44.58 billion, a year-over-year growth of nearly 13.5%, while Mac revenue was $8.05 billion, growing 14.8%, and services revenue was $27.42 billion, up nearly 13.3% [2]. Market Dynamics - The growth in Q2 was partly driven by U.S. consumers purchasing devices ahead of tariff implementations, with approximately 1% of the growth attributed to this behavior [4][5]. - Apple incurred about $800 million in tariff costs in Q2, with expectations of these costs rising to $1.1 billion in the next quarter, posing challenges to profitability [5][6]. Regional Performance - Apple achieved a revenue of $15.369 billion in Greater China, marking a growth of over 4% from $14.728 billion year-over-year, successfully reversing a seven-quarter decline [6]. - The sales growth in Greater China was primarily attributed to increased iPhone sales and the impact of government subsidies on digital products [6][7]. Pricing Strategy - Apple has broken its tradition of avoiding price cuts, significantly reducing prices on flagship models like the iPhone 16 Pro to stimulate sales [7]. - The price reduction strategy has led to a surge in sales, with Apple regaining the top position in both sales volume and revenue during the 618 shopping festival [7]. Competitive Landscape - Concerns exist regarding the sustainability of sales driven by price reductions, as Apple currently lacks a fundamental advantage over Android competitors [8]. - The closure of an Apple Store in Dalian has raised market concerns about Apple's commitment to the Chinese market, although the company continues to expand its retail presence in other areas [8].

周度报告-黄金 美国 7 月非农爆冷，黄金震荡收涨 [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] 黄金：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 8 月 3 日 [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金涨 0.8%至 3363 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.22%，通胀 预期 2.33%，实际利率降至 1.88%，美元指数涨 1.54%至 99.1，标普 500 指数跌 2.36%，离岸人民币小幅贬值，沪金小幅溢价。 贵 金 属 金价先跌后涨最终收涨，随着 8 月 1 日对等关税生效日的带来， 美国陆续与贸易伙伴达成协议，墨西哥关税协议将延长 90 天，加 拿大关税从 25%升至 35%，韩国加征 15%关税，印度加征 255 关 税，中美搞成谈判意在将关税再度延长 90 天，上午实质进展。整 体而言关税引发的避险情绪有限，当前的不确定性远低于 4 月， 叠加美联储 7 月利率会议按兵不动，美联储主席鲍威尔表态鹰派， 黄金出现回调，一度跌破 3300 美金以及 60 日均线。但美联储内 部分歧巨大，鲍曼和沃勒两位理事投票降息，后续特朗普也将提 名更加倾向降息的人选。美国经济数据喜忧参半，首先是二季度 GDP 数 ...

欧洲央行管委Patsalides：欧元区经济表现出韧性。当前形势不确定主要因关税所致。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the significant downward revision of June non-farm data reflects substantial disruptions to the U.S. economy due to tariffs, suggesting that the resilience of the U.S. economy should not be overestimated, and the direction of interest rate cuts remains highly certain [2][4][17] - In July, non-farm employment increased by 73,000, which is below the expected 110,000, and the previous value was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, indicating pressure on the U.S. job market [6][11][22] - The unemployment rate in July rose to 4.2%, up from 4.1% in the previous month, while the average hourly wage increased by 3.9% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.8% [1][6][31] Group 2 - In July, the financial activities, healthcare, and retail sectors added 15,000, 79,000, and 16,000 jobs respectively, showing a stable demand in the service sector [3][22] - The manufacturing sector has seen negative job growth for three consecutive months, indicating insufficient production willingness among enterprises [3][22] - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.2% in July, down from 62.3% in the previous month, with a notable decline in employment willingness among younger demographics [26][31] Group 3 - The downward revision of June non-farm data was primarily due to significant adjustments in government, leisure, and hotel employment, which collectively accounted for a 90,000 downward revision, representing nearly 70% of the total revision [12][17] - The cumulative downward revision for May and June non-farm data reached 258,000, while the July employment figure of 73,000 is a significant drop compared to the average monthly increase of over 100,000 in the first quarter [4][17] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times in 2025, with an 80% probability for the first cut in September [4][21][37] Group 4 - The average hourly wage growth has shown an upward trend, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in July, higher than the previous 0.2% [37][39] - The service sector's job growth in July rebounded to 96,000, compared to a previous value of 16,000, indicating a relatively stable demand in the service industry [22][31] - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with second-quarter GDP growth at 3.0%, driven by a "import rush" effect, while core GDP growth has declined [18][22]

格隆汇8月3日｜当地时间8月2日，巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦发布最新财报。截至二季度末，伯克希尔 前五大持仓分别为美国运通、苹果、美国银行、可口可乐和雪佛龙。财报显示， 2025年第二季度实现 营收925.15亿美元，上年同期为936.53亿美元；归属于伯克希尔股东的净收益为123.70亿美元，上年同 期为303.48亿美元，净利润暴跌59%。财报显示，巴菲特的现金储备从3月底的3470亿美元小幅下降至 3441亿美元（约合人民币2.48万亿元），这是三年来首次减少。 巴菲特在财报中再次对特朗普的关税及其对旗下各业务的潜在影响发出严厉警告。伯克希尔在财报中表 示："这些事件的变化速度，包括由国际贸易政策和关税发展引发的紧张局势，在2025年上半年加快了 步伐。这些事件的最终结果仍存在相当大的不确定性。"公司补充道："很有可能会对我们大多数，甚至 是所有运营业务，以及我们持有的股票投资产生不利影响，从而显著影响我们的未来业绩。"财报显 示， 伯克希尔已连续第11个季度净卖出股票。此外，尽管公司股价从历史高点回落超过10%，但伯克 希尔在2025年上半年并未回购任何股票。 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the giant panda "Yuko" at Chongqing Zoo not being on display due to health concerns related to extreme high temperatures [1] - The zoo management confirmed that "Yuko" experienced heat stress but is currently recovering and will not be exhibited temporarily [1] - To protect the animals from high temperatures, the zoo will adjust outdoor exhibition schedules for some giant pandas and other animals based on temperature changes [1]

Employment Data Summary - In July 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, significantly below the expected 110,000, and the previous value was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000[1][11]. - The unemployment rate in July 2025 was 4.2%, matching expectations but up from the previous 4.1%[1][14]. - Average hourly earnings rose by 3.9% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.8% and revised from a previous increase of 3.7%[1][14]. Data Revision Insights - The June non-farm payrolls were revised down by a total of 258,000, with significant downward adjustments in government, leisure, and construction sectors, accounting for 90,000 of the total revision[2][12]. - The downward revision reflects the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy, indicating a decline in the accuracy of the "birth-death model" used for employment predictions[2][5]. Sector Performance - In July, the financial activities, education, and healthcare sectors added 15,000, 79,000, and 16,000 jobs respectively, showing stability in service sector demand[3][27]. - The goods-producing sector continued to show negative job growth for three consecutive months, indicating weak production intentions among businesses[3][28]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate fell to 62.2% in July, down from 62.3% in June, with a notable decline in employment willingness among younger demographics[4][35]. - The number of unemployed individuals increased by 221,000 in July, contributing to the rise in the U3 unemployment rate to 4.2%[4][35]. Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate rate cuts, with market predictions indicating three rate cuts in 2025, starting in September with an 83.4% probability[5][26]. - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with the second quarter GDP growth at 3.0%, driven by a "import rush" effect, but core GDP growth showing signs of decline[5][23].