Core Insights - Despite initial fears of inflation and recession due to tariffs, the actual impact has been less severe than anticipated, with the U.S. economy continuing to grow [1] - Tariff revenues collected by the U.S. Treasury are significantly lower than predicted, indicating that the expected benefits of tariffs have not materialized [1] Tariff Revenue and Effective Tax Rates - The effective average tax rate paid by companies is approximately 12.5%, which is lower than the estimated 17% statutory rate due to loopholes and exemptions [2] - Many companies have shifted production to countries with lower tariffs, such as Vietnam, Mexico, and Turkey, further reducing the effective tax rate [2] Corporate Strategies to Mitigate Tariff Costs - Companies are stockpiling inventory before tariffs take effect and utilizing bonded warehouses to minimize tariff costs [2] - U.S. companies have only passed a portion of the tariff costs onto consumers, with estimates suggesting that consumers have absorbed 50%-70% of the costs [3] Industry-Specific Insights - In the automotive sector, manufacturers are estimated to have absorbed about 80% of the tariff costs, only passing 20% onto consumers, due to higher profit margins post-pandemic [4] - Retailers, such as Aritzia, have shown resilience against tariff impacts, maintaining profitability despite facing high tariffs on imports [4] Consumer Behavior and Economic Outlook - Consumer spending remains robust, supported by a strong stock market and low unemployment, despite initial concerns about reduced consumer confidence [5] - Economists caution that the long-term effects of tariffs may still lead to increased costs for consumers as companies gradually raise prices [5]

11月1日，加拿大总理卡尼称，他已就安大略省投放的一则反关税广告向美国总统特朗普致歉。卡尼 称，这则广告播出前就已看过内容，并向安大略省省长表示不希望该广告推出。此前，特朗普因不满加 拿大的关税广告，宣布对加方征收10%额外关税。特朗普称广告中可能使用了人工智能，"欺骗性地"声 称美国前总统里根反对关税。特朗普表示，该广告误导公众，并表示此举属于"欺诈行为"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and closed lower on October 31, with an opening price of $4001.92 per ounce, a high of $4046.19, a low of $3989.09, and a closing price of $4012.84 [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - Federal Reserve Governor Milan indicated that restrictive policies pose risks to the labor market and predicted a potential rate cut in December [3] - Several Federal Reserve officials opposed the idea of a rate cut, with Dallas Fed President Logan stating that last week's decision to not cut rates was appropriate, and Kansas City Fed President Schmidt expressing concerns about economic growth and inflation [3] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested that if inflation continues to decline, the Federal Reserve should proceed with further rate cuts, noting that the preferred PCE inflation rate remains at 2.7% [4] - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 69.8%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 30.2% [5] Group 2: Government Shutdown and Negotiations - The U.S. government shutdown is entering a critical week, with Democratic senators urging President Trump to engage in negotiations to end the shutdown [3] - The negotiations include discussions on the upcoming expiration of the Affordable Care Act subsidies, which could significantly increase healthcare costs for millions of Americans [3] - President Trump emphasized the importance of tariffs in negotiations with other countries, stating that failure to utilize tariffs could lead to significant disadvantages for the U.S. [3] Group 3: Gold Market Analysis - International gold prices showed volatility, with the highest price reaching $4046 and the lowest at $3989 during the trading session [7] - The daily chart indicates a slight bearish trend, with short-term indicators showing a downward crossover, suggesting a potential peak [7] - The hourly chart reflects that gold prices are stabilizing below the 144-hour moving average resistance, indicating a short-term bearish outlook [7]

特朗普称不会出席本周最高法院就其全球关税措施合法性举行的听证会。最高法院定于周三审理特朗普对一家下级法院裁决提出的上诉。此前，联邦上诉法院裁定特朗普实施多项关税措施超越了总统的紧急权力范围。 https://t.co/IK0cjXdXyA ...

Core Insights - The holiday shopping season in the U.S. is expected to be impacted by tariffs, potentially costing consumers an additional $40.6 billion in 2024, which translates to an extra burden on holiday spending [1] Economic Impact - Tariffs were implemented by the Trump administration in April, contributing to persistent inflation rates between 2.5% and 3% [3] - Economists note that while inflation indicators like CPI and PCE are not skyrocketing, tariffs have prevented prices from decreasing, keeping inflation elevated [3] Corporate Response - Companies initially absorbed tariff costs by stockpiling inventory and compressing profit margins, but as holiday demand increases, they are now passing these costs onto consumers [5] - According to U.S. Bank economist Aditya Bhave, consumers are expected to bear 50% to 70% of the total tariff costs, with the remainder absorbed by businesses [6] Federal Reserve Concerns - The Federal Reserve aims to stabilize core inflation (excluding food and energy) at 2%, but this target has not been met since March 2021, with current rates remaining high [8] - U.S. Bank predicts that tariffs could increase the core PCE inflation rate by 0.5 percentage points, with September's inflation rate at 2.9% when tariffs are included, compared to 2.4% without [8] Consumer Sentiment - Rising prices for everyday items, such as coffee and furniture, are evident, with clothing prices increasing by 0.7% in September, affecting consumer perception of inflation [10] - Analysts from TD Cowen emphasize that even minor price increases in low-weight items can significantly impact consumer confidence, as frequent price changes create a more immediate perception of inflation [12] Seasonal Product Impact - Seasonal products, like artificial Christmas trees, exemplify how high tariffs can influence consumer perceptions of inflation during the holiday season [13]

2025.11. 01 对于特朗普的言论，加拿大总理卡尼在24日表示，加拿大随时准备与美国重启并推进贸易谈判，但无法控制美国 的贸易政策。 微信编辑 | 七三 第一财经持续追踪财经热点。若您掌握公司动态、行业趋势、金融事件等有价值的线索，欢迎提供。 专用邮箱： bianjibu@yicai.com 本文字数：400，阅读时长大约1分钟 封图 | 加拿大总理卡尼（资料图） 据央视新闻，11月1日，正在韩国庆州出席亚太经合组织第三十二次领导人非正式会议的加拿大总理卡尼表示， 他已就反关税广告向美国总统特朗普致歉。 此前报道 美国总统特朗普10月23日宣布，中止与加拿大的贸易谈判，原因是他对安大略省政府赞助的一条广告不满。特朗 普指责加拿大"欺骗性地"声称美国前总统里根反对关税。特朗普25日还称，由于加拿大安大略省投放针对美国上 调关税的电视广告，他打算对进口自加拿大的商品在现有关税基础上再加征10%关税。 （注：我们会对线索进行核实。您的隐私将严格保密。） 推荐阅读 美防长宣布：发动空袭 C l 大大大量 ■ A H Pete Hegseth ...

据央视新闻消息，当地时间10月31日，当被问及美国与加拿大是否将重启谈判时，美国总统特朗普表 示"不会"。 理卡尼 视觉中国 图 另据路透社报道，加拿大总理卡尼11月1日表示，他已就一则反关税广告向特朗普致歉。该广告引用了 美国前总统罗纳德·里根关于自由贸易的讲话，以此批评贸易壁垒。卡尼说，"我确实向特朗普总统道歉 了，他对此感到不满"。卡尼还表示"当美国准备好时"，贸易谈判将重启。 加拿大安大略省政府10月14日投放了一则广告，内容包括美前总统里根在1987年的一次电台讲话摘 录："关税只在短时间内有效……伤害所有美国工人和消费者。"该广告随后附加评论称，"高关税不可 避免地会导致外国报复，并引发激烈的贸易战。" 10月23日，里根基金会在公开声明中表示，上述广告歪曲了里根的原意，安大略省政府也没有获得该文 献的授权，该基金会正在考虑通过法律手段维权。 就在同一天（10月23日），特朗普宣布中止与加拿大的贸易谈判，指责加拿大"欺骗性地"声称美国前总 统里根反对关税。特朗普25日还称，由于加拿大安大略省投放针对美国上调关税的电视广告，他打算对 进口自加拿大的商品在现有关税基础上再加征10%关税。 智通财经记者 ...

来源：滚动播报 美联储理事米兰：不认为关税推高了通胀。 ...

Core Points - Canadian Prime Minister Carney apologized to U.S. President Trump regarding anti-tariff advertisements [2] - Trump announced on October 23 that he would suspend trade negotiations with Canada due to dissatisfaction with an advertisement sponsored by the Ontario government [3] - Trump accused Canada of misleadingly claiming that former U.S. President Reagan opposed tariffs [3] - Following the advertisement, Trump stated he plans to impose an additional 10% tariff on goods imported from Canada [3] - Carney expressed Canada's readiness to resume and advance trade negotiations with the U.S. but noted that Canada cannot control U.S. trade policy [3]

Core Insights - The impact of Trump's tariffs has been minimal so far, but it is expected to become more pronounced during the upcoming holiday shopping season as consumers will start to feel the price increases [1] - Economists predict that common inflation indicators like CPI and PCE will not see significant spikes, but tariffs will keep these indicators elevated during periods when they would typically decline [1][2] Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - Bank of America economists assert that tariffs have indeed raised consumer prices, despite initial minimal effects due to companies stockpiling goods and absorbing some costs [2] - The tariffs are projected to increase the core PCE index by approximately 0.5%, with September's inflation rate estimated at 2.9% under tariffs, compared to 2.4% without them [2] - The Federal Reserve aims to maintain core inflation at 2%, but this target has been exceeded since March 2021, complicating monetary policy decisions [2] Group 2: Consumer Experience and Price Sensitivity - Real-life inflation is reflected in rising prices of everyday items like coffee, furniture, and clothing, with clothing prices increasing by 0.7% in September [3] - Certain goods, despite having a small weight in the CPI, can disproportionately affect consumer confidence and perceptions of inflation, creating a feedback loop that further drives prices up [4] - Seasonal items, such as artificial Christmas trees imported from China, are expected to see significant price increases due to tariffs, impacting consumer sentiment during the holiday season [5]