| | | 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年5月7日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | 王泽辉 | Z0019938 | | 原田 | | | | | | | | | | | гнен | 4月30日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8240 | 8300 | -60 | -0.72% | | | 期价 | Y2509 | 7900 | 7982 | -82 | -1.03% | | | 墓差 | Y2509 | 340 | 318 | 22 | 6.92% | | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏5月 | 09+420 | 09+380 | 40 | - | | | 仓单 | | 5355 | 4005 | 1350 | 33.71% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | | | | 2月6日 | 4月30日 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 8620 | 8750 | -130 | -1.49% | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View After the May Day holiday, the oil and fat sector continued to decline, with palm oil leading the drop. The egg price gap dropped, and the apple price fluctuated greatly. Different agricultural products showed different trends due to various factors such as supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, and policies [2]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Palm Oil - Key points: The main 2509 contract of palm oil continued to decline after May Day. The production in the palm oil - producing areas increased smoothly, and the inventory was expected to rise. The domestic purchase volume increased and the cost decreased. Technical indicators showed weakness. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 7880 and resistance at 8000 [3][4] (2) Soybean Oil - Key points: The main 2509 contract of soybean oil oscillated and declined. The external market price dropped, and the domestic supply was expected to improve. Technical indicators turned weak. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 7714 and resistance at 7742 [5] (3) Soybean Meal - Key points: The main 2509 contract of soybean meal continued to decline with oscillations. The external market price was under pressure, and the domestic supply was expected to increase. Technical indicators were weak. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 2865 and resistance at 2930 [7] (4) Corn - Key points: The main 2507 contract of corn rose first and then fell with oscillations, but the upward trend remained unchanged. Factors such as low remaining grain, reduced imports, and increased demand supported the price. Technical indicators were strong. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - long position at low prices, with support at 2358 and resistance at 2384 [9] (5) Live Pigs - Key points: The 2509 contract of live pigs first declined and then rose with oscillations, but the downward trend remained. The supply pressure increased, and the demand support was insufficient. Technical indicators showed a downward trend. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position at high prices, with support at 13800 and resistance at 14000 [12] (6) Sugar - Key points: The main 2509 contract of sugar opened low and closed high with oscillations. Good sales and approaching peak consumption season supported the price. The price was still under the moving - average pressure. The recommended strategy was short - term trading, with support at 5866 and resistance at 5900 [13][15] (7) Eggs - Key points: The main 2506 contract of eggs continued to decline with a large gap. The supply was sufficient, and the demand decreased during the holiday. Technical indicators were weak. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 2852 and resistance at 2900 [16] (8) Cotton - Key points: The main 2509 contract of cotton opened high and closed low. The textile industry entered the off - season, and the demand was weak. Technical indicators showed a downward trend. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 12600 and resistance at 12800 [18] (9) Apples - Key points: The main 2510 contract of apples opened high and closed low with large fluctuations, but the upward trend remained. Good sales during the holiday, low inventory, and possible yield reduction supported the price. Technical indicators showed an upward trend. The recommended strategy was to hold a long position at low prices, with support at 7908 and resistance at 8000 [22] (10) Soybean No.1 - Key points: The main 2507 contract of soybean No.1 rebounded. The reduction of remaining grain supported the price. Technical indicators turned strong. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - long position, with support at 4176 and resistance at 4246 [23][26]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Operation ratings for different agricultural products: unclear ratings for "ななな" (soybean No.1), "女女女" (soybean meal), ☆☆☆ for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, and corn; ★☆★ for pig and egg [1] Core Views - Short - term attention should be paid to the supply pattern change of imported soybeans from tight to loose, and also to policy and supply - demand changes [2] - The soybean meal futures may be strong in the short - term, and its upward momentum will weaken when Brazilian soybean procurement speeds up and North American weather risks decrease [3] - The prices of soybean oil and palm oil will fluctuate repeatedly due to factors such as low procurement progress of Chinese third - quarter soybean shipments and palm oil's production increase period [4] - The downward space of rapeseed meal is limited, and investors can pay attention to later long - position opportunities [6] - The corn futures continue to rise, and the market situation may expand after the domestic grain - right conversion is completed [7] - The pig futures are weak, and attention should be paid to the decline space of spot prices as the number and weight of pig slaughter increase [8] - The egg price is expected to be weak in the long - term due to factors such as seasonal decline and capacity release [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The domestic soybean main contract significantly reduced positions before the holiday, and the reserve soybeans are still being released. After the May Day holiday, soybean supply will change from tight to loose, and short - term attention should be paid to policies and supply - demand [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Near the May Day holiday, soybean meal significantly reduced positions. After the holiday, the supply pattern will change, and attention should be paid to the pressure on spot and basis. The soybean meal futures may be strong in the short - term [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Before the May Day holiday, soybean oil and palm oil were relatively resistant to decline. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the pressure on soybean oil spot and basis. The prices of the two oils will fluctuate repeatedly [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - After the May Day holiday, the soybean shortage situation will ease. The proportion of soybean meal in feed is expected to decrease. The domestic inventory of rapeseed products has declined, and the downward space of rapeseed meal is limited [6] Corn - Corn futures continue to rise. The port inventory pressure has decreased, and the downstream processing capacity has recovered. There are differences among traders, and the market situation may expand [7] Pig - The pig futures are weak, and the 11 - month contract hit a new low. The spot price is stable. The number and weight of pig slaughter are expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the decline of spot prices [8] Egg - The egg spot price is weak, and the futures price declined before the holiday. After the holiday, the demand will be weak, and the egg price is expected to be weak in the long - term [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Fats and Oils - Palm oil: Affected by concerns over production growth, it fell below 4,000 ringgit and is expected to test the support at 3,500 ringgit in the long - term. In China, Dalian palm oil futures adjusted downward, with short - term support expected around 8,000 - 8,100 yuan. It's advisable to take profits before the May Day holiday [1]. - Soybean oil: The USDA monthly report lowered the US soybean oil's ending inventory, but the positive news has been reflected in the price. US biodiesel consumption has slowed down. In China, spot prices mostly fell, with some regions rising due to higher basis quotes. Factory supply is tight, and inventory is low, keeping spot quotes strong in the short - term [1]. Meal - The US soybean market is in a shock range, with no weather - related speculation yet and continuous demand concerns. Brazil's supply pressure is being realized, and China's soybean arrivals are abundant. Short - term domestic soybean meal is affected by slow customs clearance, with low oil mill operation rates and falling inventories. The basis has been rising, but the market's willingness to buy at high prices is limited. In May, the basis is expected to decline. Wait for the market to stabilize before considering long - term long positions [3]. Live Pigs - The previous entry of second - fattening pigs pushed up prices, but terminal follow - up is difficult. Recently, second - fattening transactions have declined, and pig prices have fallen. The fat - to - standard price difference is narrowing, and demand is weak. Pig prices are expected to remain in a shock pattern. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,000 - 14,800 yuan. Pay attention to second - fattening pig sales around May Day [5]. Corn - The market has strong bullish sentiment, and spot prices are rising. The remaining grain at the grassroots level is almost gone, and traders in the Northeast are strongly holding prices. In North China, farmers are reluctant to sell. The downstream has rigid demand for restocking, but high port inventories limit the upside. In the long - term, supply tightening and recovering demand will support corn prices, but new - season wheat substitution may cause short - term corrections. Be cautious when chasing up prices [7]. White Sugar - Brazil's new sugar - crushing season is starting, and Thailand's production is expected to increase. The market expects an increase in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, which will put long - term pressure on prices. ICE raw sugar will fluctuate between 17 - 20 cents per pound. Rain in Guangxi has alleviated the drought to some extent. The issuance of import licenses and import volume will dominate the market. Domestic supply and demand are loosening, and sugar prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock pattern [9]. Cotton - Cotton prices are mainly affected by macro factors. Pay attention to the development of the US - initiated tariff war. If tariffs are reduced in the short - term, it will be positive for the market; otherwise, it will be negative in the medium - term. Downstream demand is slightly weakening, and inventories are slightly accumulating, but the pressure is not large. Short - term domestic cotton prices may fluctuate. Keep an eye on macro trends [11]. Eggs - The national egg supply is relatively abundant, and demand is decreasing. The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying. Egg prices are expected to decline slightly this week and then stabilize [14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fats and Oils - **Soybean Oil**: On April 28, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,370 yuan, down 150 yuan (- 1.76%) from April 25. The futures price of Y2509 was 7,866 yuan, down 1.60%. The basis was - 128 yuan, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3,035 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong on April 28 was 9,080 yuan, down 150 yuan (- 1.63%) from April 25. The futures price of P2509 was 8,566 yuan, down 1.70%. The basis was 514 yuan, and the warehouse receipts were 0 [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of Jiangsu Grade 4 rapeseed oil on April 28 was 9,400 yuan, down 150 yuan (- 1.57%) from April 25. The futures price of O1509 was 9,305 yuan, down 1.65%. The basis was 95 yuan, and the warehouse receipts decreased from 1,634 to 1,357 [1]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3,500 yuan, down 300 yuan (- 7.89%) from the previous value. The futures price of M2509 was 2,985 yuan, down 1.52%. The basis was 515 yuan, down 33.03%. The warehouse receipts were 10,600, unchanged [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,580 yuan, down 60 yuan (- 2.27%) from the previous value. The futures price of RM2509 was 2,641 yuan, down 1.60%. The basis was - 61 yuan, down 38.64%. The warehouse receipts increased from 1,000 to 2,000 [3]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3,950 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the main soybean contract was 4,225 yuan, down 0.28%. The basis was - 275 yuan, up 4.18%. The warehouse receipts increased by 13.37% to 10,981 [3]. Live Pigs - **Futures**: The main contract price was 790 yuan/ton, up 2.60%. The price of the live - pig 2507 contract was 13,485 yuan, down 0.41%; the 2509 contract was 14,130 yuan, down 0.14%. The 7 - 9 spread was 645 yuan, up 5.74%. The main - contract positions increased by 1.48% to 73,369, and the warehouse receipts were 705 [5]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in Henan, Shandong, and other regions remained unchanged. The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 0.56% to 147,162 heads. The weekly white - strip price dropped by 100.00% to 0.00 yuan, the weekly piglet price dropped by 3.79% to 26.94 yuan/kg, the weekly sow price remained unchanged at 32.51 yuan/kg, the weekly slaughter weight increased by 0.29% to 128.94 kg, and the weekly self - breeding profit increased by 26.05% to 100 yuan [5]. Corn - **Corn**: The price of the corn 2507 contract was 2,361 yuan, up 1.07%. The Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price was 2,270 yuan, up 0.44%. The basis was - 91 yuan, down 19.74%. The 7 - 9 spread was - 19 yuan, unchanged. The positions increased by 3.12% to 2,305,598, and the warehouse receipts increased by 40.44% to 112,229 [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2507 contract was 2,721 yuan, up 0.44%. The Changchun spot price was 2,590 yuan, unchanged; the Weifang spot price was 2,760 yuan, unchanged. The basis was - 131 yuan, down 10.08%. The 7 - 9 spread was - 79 yuan, down 25.40%. The positions increased by 4.13% to 353,656, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 8,450 [7]. White Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the sugar 2505 contract was 6,189 yuan, up 0.23%; the 2509 contract was 5,977 yuan, up 0.05%. The ICE raw - sugar main contract was 17.83 cents/lb, down 1.82%. The 5 - 9 spread was 212 yuan, up 5.47%. The positions increased by 1.69% to 338,467 hands, the warehouse receipts were 28,756, unchanged, and the valid forecasts increased by 12.37% to 3,270 [9]. - **Spot**: The Nanning spot price was 6,220 yuan, up 0.16%; the Kunming spot price was 6,070 yuan, up 1.17%. The Nanning basis was 31 yuan, down 11.43%; the Kunming basis was - 119 yuan, up 32.00% [9]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the cotton 2505 contract was 12,675 yuan, down 0.39%; the 2509 contract was 12,950 yuan, down 0.31%. The ICE US cotton main contract was 67.56 cents/lb, down 1.66%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 275 yuan, down 3.77%. The positions decreased by 0.30% to 570,462 hands, the warehouse receipts decreased by 0.72% to 10,479, and the valid forecasts increased by 1.14% to 1,960 [11]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 13,998 yuan, unchanged; the CC Index of 3128B was 14,244 yuan, up 0.07%; the FC Index of M: 1% was 13,956 yuan, down 0.56%. The 3128B - 01 contract basis was 1,323 yuan, up 3.93%; the 3128B - 05 contract basis was 1,048 yuan, up 3.97%; the CC Index of 3128B - FC Index of M: 1% was 288 yuan, up 44.00% [11]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the egg 09 contract was 3,812 yuan/500KG, down 0.16%; the 05 contract was 3,133 yuan/500KG, down 0.98%. The 9 - 5 spread was 679 yuan, up 3.82%. The basis was 315 yuan, down 9.92% [14]. - **Related Prices**: The egg - laying chicken chick price was 4.25 yuan/feather, unchanged; the culled - chicken price was 5.19 yuan/jin, up 2.77%; the egg - to - feed ratio was 2.69, up 1.51%; the breeding profit was - 6.03 yuan/feather, up 29.39% [14].

2025年04月27日 国泰君安期货研究周报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：累库交易乏力，关注新边际变化 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：国际豆油支撑油脂价格 | 2 | | 豆粕：偏弱震荡，规避五一假期风险 | 7 | | 豆一：回调震荡，规避假期风险 | 7 | | 玉米：偏强运行 | 13 | | 白糖：关注内外价差机会 | 19 | | 棉花：需求驱动弱关注新疆天气 | 26 | | 生猪：累库空间缩窄，等待节后印证 | 33 | | 花生：有所回调 | 39 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 4 月 27 日 棕榈油：累库交易乏力，关注新边际变化 豆油：国际豆油支撑油脂价格 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：上周油脂板块交投激烈，棕榈油强现实弱预期的交易博弈近两月后，市场认为累库故事交易 暂时充分，因此随着印度边际需求改善的新变量，棕榈油触底反弹，并随着美豆油情绪利好继续大涨， 棕榈油 09 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Apple: Oscillating with an upward bias [4] - Red dates: Neutral [7] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Apple is in the traditional sales peak season, with improved terminal consumption of late Fuji apples. The inventory is at a five - year low, and the price is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend. New - season apples are in the flowering period, and weather factors may affect production. [3] - Red dates had a bumper harvest in 2024. The current spot and futures prices are at historical lows. The consumption off - season will last until September. The short - term spot price is expected to be stable, and attention should be paid to the growth of new - season red dates. [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2510 contract yesterday was 7,935 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton or 0.62% from the previous day. - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.30 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. [2] Market Analysis - The apple futures price rose yesterday. In the traditional peak season, merchants' purchasing enthusiasm is high, and terminal sales are stable. The remaining inventory is at a five - year low, and the de - stocking pressure is small. The price is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend this week. New - season apples are in the flowering period, and some areas have a certain expected reduction in production due to frost damage. [3] Strategy - Oscillating with an upward bias [4] Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Red Dates 2509 contract yesterday was 9,060 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton or 1.31% from the previous day. - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 8.30 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. [4][5] Market Analysis - The red dates futures price fell yesterday. The supply in the sales area is sufficient, and downstream buyers purchase as needed. The short - term spot price is expected to be stable. The market is in the consumption off - season, and attention should be paid to the growth of new - season red dates. [6] Strategy - Neutral [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: In Malaysia, the long - term view remains cautiously bearish as the current downward trend is well - maintained. In China, palm oil is expected to show a phased oscillatory upward trend due to low port inventories and slow customs clearance of soybeans. For soybean oil, CBOT soybean oil has upward momentum due to positive fundamentals in the US, while in China, supply is tight, supporting the basis price [1]. Cotton Industry - Short - term domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate slightly. Downstream demand is weak but has rigid needs, and there is some pressure and support for cotton prices. Attention should be paid to weather conditions in Xinjiang and macro - economic trends [2]. Sugar Industry - The international raw sugar market will oscillate widely between 17 - 20 cents per pound. The domestic sugar market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillatory pattern as it lacks effective driving factors, although there is resistance to price drops [3]. Egg Industry - The supply of eggs is mostly sufficient, and the downstream digestion speed is average. Egg prices are expected to rise slightly this week and then stabilize, with a possible decline later [5]. Meal Industry - The upward trend of US soybeans lacks sustainable drivers. Brazil's soybean supply pressure is increasing, and China's soybean arrivals will be abundant. In the short term, due to slow customs clearance, meal demand for pre - May Day stocking has boosted the basis price. Caution is advised in disk operations [7]. Corn Industry - In the short term, corn prices will oscillate within a range. There is support from reduced supply and increased demand for pre - May Day stocking, but the upside is limited by factors such as high inventories and the need to clear warehouses before the wheat harvest. In the long term, prices are expected to rise [10]. Pig Industry - Pig prices lack the power for continuous upward movement in the short term. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,000 - 14,800 yuan. Attention should be paid to the performance of second - fattening pigs' market supply around May Day [15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: On April 22, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,270 yuan, up 1.60% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2509 was 7,852 yuan, up 0.80%. The basis of Y2509 was 418 yuan, up 19.43%. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 9,000 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of P2509 was 8,568 yuan, up 0.33%. The basis of P2509 was 432 yuan, down 6.09%. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9,360 yuan, up 0.86%; the futures price of 01509 was 9,340 yuan, up 0.95%. The basis of 01509 was 20 yuan, down 28.57% [1]. Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: On April 23, the price of cotton 2505 was 12,565 yuan/ton, down 0.95%; the price of cotton 2509 was 12,795 yuan/ton, down 0.89%. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14,082 yuan, up 0.07%; the CC Index of 3128B was 14,218 yuan, up 0.06% [2]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: On April 23, the price of sugar 2505 was 6,154 yuan/ton, down 0.40%; the price of sugar 2509 was 5,978 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning was 6,210 yuan, unchanged; the price in Kunming was 6,050 yuan, down 0.08% [3]. Egg Industry - On April 23, the price of the egg 06 contract was 3,028 yuan/500KG, down 0.62%; the price of the egg 09 contract was 3,817 yuan/500KG, up 0.18% [5]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: On April 22, the spot price in Jiangsu was 3,520 yuan, up 2.03%; the futures price of M2509 was 3,054 yuan, up 0.30%. The basis of M2509 was 466 yuan, up 15.06%. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,540 yuan, up 0.79%; the futures price of RM2509 was 2,658 yuan, up 1.03%. The basis of RM2509 was - 118 yuan, down 6.31% [7]. Corn Industry - **Corn**: On April 23, the price of corn 2507 was 2,324 yuan/ton, up 0.96%; the 7 - 9 spread was - 23 yuan, up 20.69%. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2507 was 2,684 yuan/ton, up 1.21%; the 7 - 9 spread was - 67 yuan, up 4.29% [10]. Pig Industry - On April 23, the price of the pig 2507 contract was 13,670 yuan/ton, down 0.07%; the price of the pig 2509 contract was 14,485 yuan/ton, down 0.48%. The 7 - 9 spread was 815 yuan, down 6.86% [15].

天富期货有限公司 期货投资咨询业务许可 证监许可[2011]1450 号 本报告完成时间为 2025 年 4 月 22 日 18:00 来源：公开信息、同花顺 iFinD、东方财富 Choice 及钢联数据 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 观点和信息仅供参考之用 不构成任何人的投资建议 务必阅读文章末尾免责声明 作者：刘幸华 从业资格号：F03088692 交易咨询资格证号: Z0016646 豆油劲升、玉米大涨 一、农产品板块综述 油脂板块集体上扬,豆油领涨,因进口大豆到厂节奏偏慢,供需 错配导致油厂开机率偏低,加之五一备货需求提振,豆油需求较强, 库存下降,支撑豆油期价强劲走高,后市关注进口大豆入关和到厂情 况。玉米大幅上涨,基层余粮见底,进口玉米大豆下降,支撑玉米期 价大幅走高,后市或偏强运行。豆一亦大幅走高,因余粮见底,贸易 商挺价等支撑价格走高。自糖回落调整,受外盘下跌拖累,但国内白 糖销售较快,进口糖大幅下降,郑糖回落空间有限,后市仍有再升空 间。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 豆油:大幅上涨 焦点关注:豆油主力 2509 合约强劲上涨,受到产出下降、需求 旺盛的偏多影响: 1.进口大豆到港,但是海关检验检疫 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Apple: Oscillating with an upward bias [3] - Red dates: Neutral [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - Apple: In April, the apple market enters the traditional sales peak season. With the increase in low - price apple transactions in Shandong and more shipments from cold storages, and the improvement in market sales in distribution areas, the market's bullish sentiment prevails. The remaining inventory is at a five - year low, and the de - stocking pressure is small. The new - season apples in the western region are in the flowering period, and the overall flower volume is sufficient. Although there was a large - scale strong wind disaster in North China, the impact on the market is still to be observed. In the short term, the spot and futures prices of apples are expected to be optimistic [2]. - Red dates: In 2024, the red date harvest exceeded expectations, and the spot inventory is at a high level. The prices of both futures and spot are at historical lows. The peak consumption season is over, and the off - season will last until September. The current demand is weak, and there is limited room for price increase. However, the cost of warehouse receipts provides some support, and the downside is also limited. The new - season red dates have started to sprout, and the market focus will shift to their growth conditions. In the short term, the price of red dates is expected to be volatile [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 7,752 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous day [1]. - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 4.05 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.30 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Market Analysis - The apple futures price closed higher yesterday. As the main contract switched and the production area entered the traditional peak season, the enthusiasm of merchants to purchase increased. The new - season apples are in the flowering period. In the short term, the apple price is expected to remain stable, and the weather conditions in the production area need to be tracked. The current inventory is at a five - year low, and the de - stocking pressure is small. The new - season apples in the western region are in the flowering period, and the impact of strong winds on pollination and the impact of low - temperature weather in the main production areas need to be focused on [2]. Strategy - Oscillating with an upward bias [3] Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2509 contract yesterday was 9,485 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton or 1.01% from the previous day [3]. - Spot: The price of first - grade gray dates in Hebei was 8.30 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [3]. Market Analysis - The red date futures price closed higher yesterday. The supply of goods in the distribution area is sufficient. As the national weather warms up, the demand for warehousing increases, and the spot price is expected to remain stable. The 2024 red date harvest exceeded expectations, and the inventory is high. The peak consumption season is over, and the off - season will last until September. The new - season red dates have started to sprout, and the market focus will shift to their growth conditions [5]. Strategy - Neutral [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recently issued "Plan for Accelerating the Construction of an Agricultural Powerhouse (2024-2035)" by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council aims for significant progress in agricultural development by 2027, with a focus on enhancing food production capacity and ensuring self-sufficiency in key agricultural products [1] Group 1: Agricultural Production Capacity - By 2024, China's total grain production is projected to reach 14.13 trillion jin, marking the 21st consecutive year of bumper harvests and the first time surpassing the 1.4 trillion jin threshold, indicating strong resilience and potential in grain production [1] - The plan emphasizes the need for financial support to enhance comprehensive grain production capacity, targeting weak links such as independent breeding, agricultural machinery research and development, and technology transformation [1][2] Group 2: Financial Support and Risk Management - Financial support should also focus on upgrading and optimizing the grain industry chain through investments in storage logistics and agricultural product processing, which can increase the added value of grain and enhance production resilience [2] - Agricultural insurance is highlighted as a crucial risk management tool that can help farmers withstand natural disasters and market fluctuations, significantly reducing production risks [2] - The government is encouraged to implement policies that promote financial institutions to increase support for grain production, ensuring effective allocation of financial resources [2] Group 3: Integration of Finance and Agriculture - The deep integration of finance and grain production is expected to steadily enhance China's comprehensive grain production capacity [3]