Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In early 2026, the economic performance needs to be clarified, and domestic and foreign policies remain the focus. In 2025, there were concerns in both the US and Chinese economies. In the US, the focus was on the weak employment market and potential consumption risks, while in China, domestic demand was weak in Q3, and the recovery in Q4 under policy guidance needed to be observed. In the new year, the policy highlights affecting the US economy are the continuation of monetary easing and the intensity of subsequent fiscal spending. In China, the focus is on the effectiveness of stabilizing domestic demand and the policy efforts in promoting investment to stop falling and expanding the consumer market. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates slightly more than twice in 2026, currently a preventive rate cut. However, if the employment market weakens more than expected, such as a continuous rise in the unemployment rate, it will prompt the Fed to accelerate the rate - cut pace. Unconventional risks in 2026 come from the attitude of the newly - appointed Fed chair, and the impact of monetary policy in Q1 mainly depends on economic performance. There is an expectation of monetary policy easing in Q1, but it remains to be seen. In China, policies to stabilize growth will be gradually introduced at the beginning of the year. The first batch of 62.5 billion yuan in national subsidy funds for consumer goods trade - in programs in 2026 is less than the 81 billion yuan in the first batch in 2025. Based on the tone of the "two new policies" set by the Central Economic Work Conference, the overall investment rhythm in 2026 is expected to be more stable. The risk is that previous consumption demand has been released to some extent, and the high base in the first half of 2025 will put pressure on the year - on - year growth rate. Later, attention should be paid to the scale of the government's on - budget fiscal deficit, ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, and local government special bonds during the Two Sessions. At the beginning of the year, policy expectations are strong, but lacking specific data support, and overall sentiment is expected to fluctuate but remain relatively stable [2]. - Precious metals are fluctuating at high levels, and the upward trend has not been broken. Before the New Year's Day holiday, the prices of precious metals, gold and silver, fluctuated significantly, mainly due to some long - positions leaving the market and the adjustment of margins for COMEX gold and silver. After the holiday, with the increase in risk - aversion sentiment and investors re - entering the market, precious metal prices continued to rise in early January, and the previous high at the end of December needs to be broken. The grand narrative logic affecting precious metal prices has not changed. Frequent global geopolitical risks, alleviated but not eliminated tariff risks, dollar credit risks, government debt risks, and the Fed's continued rate - cut rhythm still have a bullish impact on precious metals. After a continuous rise in December, the silver price fluctuated significantly before the New Year's Day holiday, and the market sentiment recovered and became stronger again after the holiday. The mid - term upward trend of COMEX gold and silver has not been broken. The support for the COMEX gold main contract is around 4270 - 4300, and for the silver main contract, it is around 69 - 70. In the short term, the market sentiment after the holiday remains bullish, but the risks are that a too - rapid price increase may trigger another margin adjustment for COMEX gold and silver, and there is short - term pressure from the annual weight adjustment of the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM). Therefore, gold and silver prices still face significant fluctuation risks. In early January, the market is still trading on geopolitical risks and monetary easing expectations. After the geopolitical risks ease, the market's focus will shift to the performance of US economic data and the corresponding changes in monetary policy expectations, which will affect short - term market fluctuations. In conclusion, at the beginning of the year, the gold and silver prices need to re - evaluate the influencing factors to determine the price direction after the short - term consolidation. It is expected to be bullish. The short - term support for the Shanghai gold main contract is 980, and for the Shanghai silver main contract, it is 17000 [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic - The Fed has no significant rate - cut expectation in January, and the market expects the next rate cut to be around March. New economic data in the US will be released in early January, including the ISM manufacturing PMI index, non - farm payroll data, and the unemployment rate. It is expected that the economic data will not affect the January monetary policy decision, and the probability of a rate cut in January is low. However, it will affect the probability of a rate cut in March, which is currently around 50%. As time passes, the expectation of a rate cut in March may change significantly under the influence of US economic data [6]. - US employment data is at risk of weakness, but the degree of weakness needs to be determined. Since the second half of 2025, the US labor market has continued to weaken. The monthly new non - farm payrolls have fluctuated significantly, and there have been months with negative new additions. The unemployment rate has gradually risen from a low of 4.1% in June 2025, especially rising to 4.6% in December. If this unemployment rate persists, it may trigger the Sahm Rule again. Therefore, the unemployment rate performance in the next two months is very important. If it rises further, it may accelerate the Fed's rate - cut pace [9]. - The upward amplitude of inflation is temporarily limited. Although inflation has risen in the second half of 2025, the amplitude is temporarily limited and does not currently affect the monetary policy rhythm. From this perspective, the short - term performance of the employment market has a more significant impact on monetary policy. In November 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of the US CPI and core CPI were 2.7% and 2.6% respectively, down from Q3 [13]. - The US manufacturing PMI index is at a low level. In the second half of 2025, the US manufacturing PMI index was at a low level. Overall, the cyclical pattern of the manufacturing PMI index is less obvious, and it fluctuates at a low level. In terms of inventory, the manufacturing inventory growth rate rebounded slightly in Q3, but the inventory growth rates of wholesalers and retailers declined, and there was no consistent inventory replenishment process. Therefore, it is difficult for the manufacturing industry to have an unexpectedly good recovery. Later, attention should be paid to whether the weakening impact of the previous government shutdown and the continuation of monetary policy easing in Q1 to Q2 will have a positive impact on inventory and the manufacturing industry [16]. - The medium - and long - term interest rates of US Treasury bonds are generally stable and have not declined significantly. Although the Fed cut interest rates continuously from Q3 to Q4 in 2025, driving down the short - term interest rate level, the long - term interest rate level remained generally stable. The 10 - year US Treasury bond interest rate fluctuated in a narrow range of 4.0% - 4.2% in Q4. Concerns about the sustainability of the sovereign debt of European and American governments and the weakening of the attractiveness of US Treasury bonds under the dollar credit risk have supported the performance of US Treasury bond interest rates. Precious metals have become more attractive as a safe - haven asset than the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, driving the continuous strength of gold and silver prices in December [20]. - The US dollar index is oscillating at a low level and is expected to gradually break out of the oscillation range. Since the second half of 2025, the US dollar index has stopped its continuous rapid decline and has been oscillating in a narrow range of 96 - 100. Whether the US dollar index can break out of the oscillation range depends on whether the US economy can gradually recover under the influence of monetary easing and whether the US can form a new dominant position to curb the risk of de - dollarization. Currently, such a trend has not been observed, and continuous attention should be paid to the performance of US economic data and whether the US's influence in the Americas region will be further strengthened [24]. - In China, the manufacturing PMI index rebounded in December 2025. After the Sino - US economic and trade relations became tense again in October 2025, the Chinese economy gradually recovered in November and December, and domestic policies also played a role in stabilizing growth. The implementation of policy - based financial tools led to a certain recovery in the manufacturing industry. Based on the December manufacturing PMI index, it is expected that the investment growth rate will recover to some extent. Attention should be paid to the industrial added value, investment, and consumption data to be released in the middle of the month [27]. - It is expected that the total new social financing in 2025 will reach 36 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of over 10%. The total new social financing in 2025 was relatively large, expected to reach 36 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the 32.3 trillion yuan in 2024. However, the growth structure and investment rhythm affected the annual economic performance. The increase in social financing in 2025 mainly came from local government bonds, and the year - on - year increase in RMB loans decreased. The overall investment rhythm of social financing also showed a pattern of high in the first half and low in the second half, with the single - month new social financing in August - October significantly less than the same period last year. Attention should be paid to whether the implementation of policy - based financial tools in Q4 2025 will drive an increase in the credit growth rate [31]. - In Q4 2025, the real - estate sales were weak, and housing prices declined month - on - month. The new and second - hand housing transactions in 2025 were significantly weaker than the same period last year, mainly in Q4. Although real - estate stabilization policies were continuously introduced from Q3 to Q4 in 2025, there were no unexpectedly large - scale reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate cuts. The new and second - hand housing transactions declined in both volume and price compared to the same period last year, which will affect the real - estate investment performance at the beginning of 2026. Therefore, promoting infrastructure and manufacturing investment and stimulating consumption have become the focus of policies at the beginning of the year [34]. - In 2026, the first - batch funds for the trade - in program were released, and the annual investment rhythm is expected to be more even. The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Notice on Implementing the Large - scale Equipment Upgrading and Consumer Goods Trade - in Policy in 2026", officially releasing the national subsidy plan for 2026. The first - batch scale of 62.5 billion yuan to support consumer goods trade - in is less than the 81 billion yuan in the first batch in 2025. However, based on the tone of the "two new policies" set by the Central Economic Work Conference, compared with the situation in 2025 when most of the funds were invested in the first three quarters, especially the first half, the overall investment rhythm in 2026 is expected to be more stable. Therefore, the smaller first - batch investment scale in 2026 does not mean a reduction in the annual scale. The scope of the trade - in subsidy has changed, and the subsidy standards have been further optimized. There is a new subsidy for purchasing new smart products, and the coverage has been expanded to include "elevator installation in old communities" and "off - line commercial facilities such as commercial complexes". However, the number of household appliance subsidy categories has been reduced from 12 to 6. For the subsidy amount, the car subsidy has been adjusted from a fixed amount to a percentage, the single - piece subsidy ceiling for household appliances has been adjusted from 2000 yuan to 1500 yuan, and only first - level energy - consuming products are eligible for the subsidy. The trade - in of electric bicycles and home - improvement consumer goods is no longer included. Overall, the subsidy is still at a certain scale and will help stabilize the consumer market in the new year, in line with the "insisting on domestic - demand - led and deeply implementing the special action to boost consumption" mentioned in the economic work conference. It is expected that the investment rhythm in 2026 will be more stable. The risk is that the implementation of the "two new policies" from the second half of 2024 to 2025 has released some consumption demand, and the high base in the first half of 2025 will put pressure on the year - on - year consumption growth rate [38][39]. - The profits of Chinese industrial enterprises improved from the end of Q3 to the beginning of Q4 in 2025 but weakened again in the second half of Q4. From July to September 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises improved, mainly due to the increase in the prices of some commodities driven by anti - involution. In October, the PPI growth rate did not further increase significantly, and the operating income growth rate of industrial enterprises also declined, affecting the profit performance of industrial enterprises. In November, the single - month profit of industrial enterprises was negative, dragging the cumulative year - on - year growth rate from January to November down to 0.1%, compared with a peak of 3.2% in September [40]. - The RMB has appreciated continuously against the US dollar, and the subsequent economic growth expectation remains the main influencing factor. Since Q4, the long - term Treasury bond yields in both China and the US have remained stable, so the yield spread has not changed significantly. In terms of economic growth expectations, the US has not shown obvious signs of recovery and is performing weakly. In China, investment and consumption have also declined. Therefore, there has been no significant change in economic growth expectations or Treasury bond yield levels. The Fed cut interest rates continuously from Q3 to Q4, while China did not adjust the benchmark interest rate. As a result, the RMB has appreciated against the US dollar, rising from around 7.12 to around 6.98 [43]. Precious Metals - In 2025, the annual increase in the SPDR gold holdings was significant. In 2025, the holdings of the world's largest physical gold fund, SPDR, ended four consecutive years of negative growth since 2021. The annual increase was about 198 tons, and the year - end holdings reached about 1070 tons. The increase in holdings mainly occurred in several stages: from early March to mid - April, from late May to late June, from late September to mid - October, and from late December [47]. - The annual increase in the SLV silver holdings was significant in 2025. The holdings of the physical silver fund, SLV, have had positive growth for the second consecutive year. In 2025, the increase was about 2068 tons, compared with 772 tons in 2024, which is also the largest annual increase in recent years except for 2020 when the increase was 6099 tons. From the perspective of physical fund holdings, the increase in price has boosted investment demand. However, neither the gold nor the silver physical fund holdings have returned to their previous peak levels. Therefore, there is still room for an increase in holdings. The increase in investment demand is usually complementary to the price trend and reinforces each other. Subsequently, the price trend will still affect the holdings, and an increase in holdings will in turn strengthen the price strength [50]. - The gold inventory in futures exchanges remained generally stable in December 2025. In December 2025, the changes in the COMEX futures inventory and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory were both small, showing a slight increase. However, there were significant changes in the inventories of the two exchanges in 2025. At the beginning of the year, due to market concerns about the US imposing tariffs on gold and silver, the inventory was transferred to COMEX. The COMEX inventory rose from about 550 tons at the end of 2024 to about 1247 tons in early October 2025 and then declined, reaching about 1132 tons at the end of December. The SHFE inventory rose from about 15 tons in May 2025 to 97.7 tons at the end of December [52]. - The COMEX silver inventory decreased in December, while the silver inventories in the SHFE and the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) increased slightly. The rapid increase in COMEX silver inventory started at the beginning of 2025, rising from about 9800 tons at the end of 2024 to about 16543 tons in early October 2025. At the same time, the maximum decline in the SHFE gold inventory in 2025 was about 900 tons, and it recovered slightly in December but remained at a low level overall. The SGE silver inventory was relatively stable, with a slight increase at the end of 2025 compared to the beginning. The domestic exchange inventories are at a low level, while the COMEX silver inventory is at a multi - year high. Concerns about tariff increases and the US adding silver to the critical minerals list have contributed to the increase in the COMEX silver inventory [55]. - Regarding the COMEX gold futures positions, although the gold price reached a new high at the end of December 2025, the total gold positions and non - commercial long positions increased, but they were lower than the levels at the gold price peak from late September to early October 2025. The non - commercial short positions were generally at a low level, and the market structure remained bullish. However, the non - commercial net long positions at the end of December were lower than those from September to early October, indicating a slightly weaker bullish sentiment [58]. - Regarding the COMEX silver futures positions, in December 2025, the silver price rose unexpectedly. The non - commercial short positions were at a low level and did not strongly resist the upward trend. The non - commercial long positions increased, but the increase was limited. The total positions remained generally stable from mid - November to December [61

转自：新华财经 来源：全国银行间同业拆借中心 新华财经北京1月6日电（刘润榕）人民银行6日开展162亿元7天期逆回购操作操作利率1.40%，与此前持平；鉴于当日有3125亿元7天期逆回购到 期，公开市场实现净回笼2963亿元。 上海银行间同业拆放利率（Shibor）延续窄幅震荡。具体来看，隔夜Shibor下跌0.10BP，报1.2630%；7天Shibor下跌0.10BP，报1.4220%；14天 Shibor上涨0.80BP，报1.4650%。 上海银行间同业拆放利率（1月6日） 银行间质押式回购市场方面，短期资金利率整体波动不大。具体看，DR001、R001加权平均利率分别与此前持平、下行0.1BP，报1.2628%、 1.3302%，成交额分别增加3247亿元、10123亿元；DR007、R007加权平均利率分别上行0.1BP、0.7BP，报1.4326%、1.493%，成交额分别减少105 亿元、增加655亿元；DR014、R014加权平均利率分别上行1.4BP、1.5BP，报1.4481%、1.5238%，成交额分别减少54亿元、3亿元。 货币市场利率（1月6日） 来源：全国银行间同业拆借中心 据上 ...

重要资讯 1、中国人民银行召开2026年工作会议，强调继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，把促进经济高质量发展、 物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具。同时再次提及了 备受市场关注的"向非银机构提供流动性的机制性安排"一事，央行通稿中提出"建立在特定情景下向非 银机构提供流动性的机制性安排，发挥好两项支持资本市场的货币政策工具作用"。 2、上海市发布20条措施鼓励外商投资企业境内再投资，支持企业按规定申请国家超长期特别国债，在 重点领域开展大规模设备更新项目投资，取消外商投资性公司使用境内贷款限制。 2、中国医药拟以5.25亿元现金收购上海则正医药70%股权，交易完成后则正医药将成为其控股子公 司，旨在提升医药研发创新领域综合实力。 3、蓝思科技是强脑科技的战略投资者，独家承接了其核心硬件模组的量产。 4、圣阳股份拟以7447.08万元收购深圳达人高科电子有限公司51%股权，以拓展储能BMS布局。 5、紫金矿业因有色金属等价格上涨，2025年业绩预增等因素，股价连涨四天，市值首次突破万亿元大 关。 6、创远信科并购重组材料被北交所正式受理，拟收购微宇天导100%股权。 3、国家外 ...

（原标题：央行重大部署！将抓好七大重点工作） 来源：中国人民银行 2026年中国人民银行工作会议1月5日-6日召开。会议以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，深 入学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会和中央经济工作会议精神，总结2025年工作，分析当前形势，研究中国 人民银行"十五五"改革发展规划，部署2026年工作。中国人民银行党委书记、行长潘功胜出席会议并讲 话，朱鹤新、曲吉山、宣昌能、陆磊、陶玲、邹澜出席会议。 会议认为，2025年以来，面对复杂严峻的国内外经济金融形势，中国人民银行坚决落实党中央、国务院 决策部署，在执行好存量货币政策基础上，推出新的一揽子货币政策措施，有力支持实体经济稳定增长 和金融市场平稳运行，持续深化金融供给侧结构性改革，稳妥处置重点领域金融风险，积极推动全球金 融治理改革完善，纵深推进全面从严治党，各项工作迈上新台阶。 一是坚持宏观思维，从系统视角统筹谋划中国人民银行重大业务和改革事项。加快完善中央银行制度， 组织研究制定"六大核心要素"建设重点工作、货币政策和宏观审慎政策框架构建、金融市场建设发展、 人民币国际化等，制定具体工作方案并动态评估完善。 二是坚持专业务实精准，适度宽松的 ...

中国人民银行1月6日消息，2026年中国人民银行工作会议1月5日—6日召开。会议提出，把促进经济高 质量发展、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持 流动性充裕，保持社会融资条件相对宽松，引导金融总量合理增长、信贷投放均衡，使社会融资规模、 货币供应量增长同经济增长和价格总水平预期目标相匹配。 四是稳妥化解重点领域金融风险。继续做好金融支持融资平台债务风险化解工作，稳妥有序推进融资平 台退出。推进重点地区和重点机构风险处置，强化中小金融机构风险识别和早期纠正。充分发挥中央银 行宏观审慎管理和维护金融稳定功能，完善宏观审慎和金融稳定管理工具箱。完善金融市场监测指标体 系，探索开展金融市场宏观审慎管理。建立在特定情景下向非银机构提供流动性的机制性安排，发挥好 两项支持资本市场的货币政策工具作用。强化金融市场监管执法，持续打击金融市场违法违规活动。 五是持续深化金融改革和对外开放。加强对银行间债券市场、货币市场、外汇市场、票据市场、黄金市 场及有关衍生品的监督管理。强化金融基础设施统筹监管。深化金融市场高水平开放，继续优化"债券 通""互换通"机制安排。支持上海国际金融中心 ...

来源：中国人民银行 2026年中国人民银行工作会议1月5日-6日召开。会议以习近平新时代 中国特色社会主义思想为指导，深入学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会和中央经 济工作会议精神，总结2025年工作，分析当前形势，研究中国人民银行"十 五五"改革发展规划，部署2026年工作。中国人民银行党委书记、行长潘功 胜出席会议并讲话，朱鹤新、曲吉山、宣昌能、陆磊、陶玲、邹澜出席会 议。 会议认为， 2025年以来，面对复杂严峻的国内外经济金融形势，中国人 民银行坚决落实党中央、国务院决策部署，在执行好存量货币政策基础上，推 出新的一揽子货币政策措施，有力支持实体经济稳定增长和金融市场平稳运 行，持续深化金融供给侧结构性改革，稳妥处置重点领域金融风险，积极推动 全球金融治理改革完善，纵深推进全面从严治党，各项工作迈上新台阶。 一是坚持宏观思维，从系统视角统筹谋划中国人民银行重大业务和改革事 项。 加快完善中央银行制度，组织研究制定"六大核心要素"建设重点工作、货 币政策和宏观审慎政策框架构建、金融市场建设发展、人民币国际化等，制定 具体工作方案并动态评估完善。 二是坚持专业务实精准，适度宽松的货币政策发力显效。 强化中国人民银 ...

来源：滚动播报 Candriam多资产全球负责人Nadege Dufosse在一份报告中表示，全球利率市场正从主要经济体同步货币 宽松的阶段过渡到差异化正常化的阶段。这使得各大国家的货币政策处于不同的阶段。在这种环境下， Candriam倾向于将久期主要作为一种对冲手段，专注于相对价值和曲线布局，而非单纯的久期风险。她 表示，美联储可能会将利率稳定在中性水平，从而导致美债收益率曲线出现温和的重新变陡。欧洲央行 应谨慎行事，暂时维持利率不变，而日本央行则通过加息来实现政策正常化。 ...

2026年中国人民银行工作会议1月5日-6日召开。会议以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，深 入学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会和中央经济工作会议精神，总结2025年工作，分析当前形势，研究中国 人民银行"十五五"改革发展规划，部署2026年工作。中国人民银行党委书记、行长潘功胜出席会议并讲 话，朱鹤新、曲吉山、宣昌能、陆磊、陶玲、邹澜出席会议。 会议认为，2025年以来，面对复杂严峻的国内外经济金融形势，中国人民银行坚决落实党中央、国务院 决策部署，在执行好存量货币政策基础上，推出新的一揽子货币政策措施，有力支持实体经济稳定增长 和金融市场平稳运行，持续深化金融供给侧结构性改革，稳妥处置重点领域金融风险，积极推动全球金 融治理改革完善，纵深推进全面从严治党，各项工作迈上新台阶。 一是坚持宏观思维，从系统视角统筹谋划中国人民银行重大业务和改革事项。加快完善中央银行制度， 组织研究制定"六大核心要素"建设重点工作、货币政策和宏观审慎政策框架构建、金融市场建设发展、 人民币国际化等，制定具体工作方案并动态评估完善。 二是坚持专业务实精准，适度宽松的货币政策发力显效。强化中国人民银行政策与市场关切的交集度和 针对性 ...

(本文来自第一财经) 2026年中国人民银行工作会议1月5日-6日召开。会议强调，要继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策。把促进 经济高质量发展、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工 具，保持流动性充裕，保持社会融资条件相对宽松，引导金融总量合理增长、信贷投放均衡，使社会融 资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长和价格总水平预期目标相匹配。畅通货币政策传导机制，发挥好政 策利率引导作用，做好利率政策执行和监督，促进社会综合融资成本低位运行。有序扩大明示企业贷款 综合融资成本工作覆盖面，推动明示个人贷款综合融资成本。保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本 稳定，防范汇率超调风险。 ...

2026年中国人民银行工作会议1月5日-6日召开。会议以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，深 入学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会和中央经济工作会议精神，总结2025年工作，分析当前形势，研究中国 人民银行"十五五"改革发展规划，部署2026年工作。中国人民银行党委书记、行长潘功胜出席会议并讲 话，朱鹤新、曲吉山、宣昌能、陆磊、陶玲、邹澜出席会议。 会议认为，2025年以来，面对复杂严峻的国内外经济金融形势，中国人民银行坚决落实党中央、国务院 决策部署，在执行好存量货币政策基础上，推出新的一揽子货币政策措施，有力支持实体经济稳定增长 和金融市场平稳运行，持续深化金融供给侧结构性改革，稳妥处置重点领域金融风险，积极推动全球金 融治理改革完善，纵深推进全面从严治党，各项工作迈上新台阶。 一是坚持宏观思维，从系统视角统筹谋划中国人民银行重大业务和改革事项。加快完善中央银行制度， 组织研究制定"六大核心要素"建设重点工作、货币政策和宏观审慎政策框架构建、金融市场建设发展、 人民币国际化等，制定具体工作方案并动态评估完善。 二是坚持专业务实精准，适度宽松的货币政策发力显效。强化中国人民银行政策与市场关切的交集度和 针对性 ...