Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View On November 13, 2025, all four major stock index futures contracts for the current month rose. However, the total trading volume of stock index futures declined on this trading day, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. Additionally, the total positions of all four major stock index futures decreased. [1][2] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **CSI 300 and Related Futures**: The CSI 300 index closed at 4702.07, up 1.21%. Among its futures contracts, IF2511 closed at 4693.6, up 1.07% with a basis of -8.47; IF2512 closed at 4677, up 1.06% with a basis of -25.07; IF2603 closed at 4645.8, up 1.00% with a basis of -56.27; IF2606 closed at 4601.4, up 1.01% with a basis of -100.67. [1] - **SSE 50 and Related Futures**: The SSE 50 index closed at 3073.67, up 0.96%. Among its futures contracts, IH2511 closed at 3072.6, up 0.81% with a basis of -1.07; IH2512 closed at 3068.8, up 0.81% with a basis of -4.87; IH2603 closed at 3064, up 0.83% with a basis of -9.67; IH2606 closed at 3059.6, up 0.99% with a basis of -14.07. [1] - **CSI 500 and Related Futures**: The CSI 500 index closed at 7355.29, up 1.55%. Among its futures contracts, IC2511 closed at 7335.4, up 1.63% with a basis of -19.89; IC2512 closed at 7269, up 1.71% with a basis of -86.29; IC2603 closed at 7087.4, up 1.64% with a basis of -267.89; IC2606 closed at 6885.4, up 1.61% with a basis of -469.89. [1] - **CSI 1000 and Related Futures**: The CSI 1000 index closed at 7590.58, up 1.39%. Among its futures contracts, IM2511 closed at 7566, up 1.60% with a basis of -24.58; IM2512 closed at 7478.4, up 1.67% with a basis of -112.18; IM2603 closed at 7246, up 1.60% with a basis of -344.58; IM2606 closed at 7012, up 1.57% with a basis of -578.58. [1] b) Trading Volume and Position Changes - **Trading Volume**: The total trading volume of IF decreased by 8821 lots, IH decreased by 1184 lots, IC decreased by 13405 lots, and IM decreased by 29092 lots. [2] - **Positions**: The total positions of IF decreased by 13919 lots, IH decreased by 1167 lots, IC decreased by 19353 lots, and IM decreased by 20677 lots. [2] c) Top 20 Member Position Changes - **IF Contracts**: For IF2511, long positions decreased by 3207 lots and short positions decreased by 2753 lots; for IF2512, long positions decreased by 4944 lots; for IF2603, long positions decreased by 1419 lots and short positions decreased by 1558 lots; for IF2606, long positions decreased by 8 lots and short positions increased by 70 lots. [5] - **IH Contracts**: For IH2511, long positions decreased by 194 lots and short positions increased by 64 lots; for IH2512, long positions decreased by 1093 lots and short positions decreased by 442 lots; for IH2603, long positions decreased by 14 lots and short positions decreased by 96 lots. [5] - **IC Contracts**: For IC2511, long positions decreased by 4850 lots and short positions decreased by 4795 lots; for IC2512, long positions decreased by 8355 lots; for IC2603, long positions decreased by 179 lots and short positions decreased by 568 lots; for IC2606, long positions decreased by 451 lots and short positions decreased by 673 lots. [5] - **IM Contracts**: For IM2511, long positions decreased by 5732 lots and short positions decreased by 5208 lots; for IM2512, long positions decreased by 5868 lots and short positions decreased by 6259 lots; for IM2603, long positions decreased by 1923 lots and short positions decreased by 2516 lots. [5] d) Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and the trend intensity of IC and IM is also 1. [6] - **Important Drivers**: The Ministry of Commerce held a regular press conference, and the spokesperson mentioned the results of the China-US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, including agricultural product trade. The US government ended its 43 - day shutdown after the President signed a temporary appropriation bill. China's new social financing in October was 810 billion yuan, new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap widened. China's CSRC Chairman Wu Qing visited financial regulatory authorities in France and Brazil and had discussions with international institutional investors. The A - share market opened lower and closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.73% to 4029.5 points, a ten - year high. [6][7][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall stance of Fed officials on November 14 was hawkish, but it couldn't change the trend of further monetary - policy easing. After the retirement of Atlanta Fed President Bostic, Trump is expected to appoint a dovish voting member, bringing a "dovish tilt" to the Fed and undermining its independence. In the early stage of the Fed's current easing cycle, it is advisable to buy silver on dips. The gold - silver ratio still has room for further downward correction. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 937 - 1001 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 11734 - 13000 yuan/kilogram [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On November 14, Shanghai gold rose 0.11% to 956.96 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.40% to 12405.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4174.50 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver at 52.23 dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 4.11%, and the US dollar index was 99.16 [2]. 3.2 Fed Officials' Stances - Cleveland Fed President Hammack believed that a certain degree of tightening was needed to continue to put pressure on inflation. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, known as the "hawk king", thought the Fed should not have kept interest rates unchanged at the previous meeting. St. Louis Fed President Musalem was slightly neutral, supporting rate cuts to protect the labor market but advocating caution [2]. 3.3 Policy Expectations - Atlanta Fed President Bostic will retire in February next year. After his retirement, Trump is expected to appoint a dovish voting member, which will bring a "dovish tilt" to the Fed's policy decisions until 2027 [3]. 3.4 Investment Strategies - In the early stage of the Fed's easing cycle, it is recommended to buy silver on dips. The gold - silver ratio has room for further downward correction. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 937 - 1001 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 11734 - 13000 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3.5 Key Data of Gold and Silver - **Gold**: COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) on November 13 was 4174.50 dollars/ounce, down 0.64% from the previous day; trading volume was 30.25 million lots, up 8.80%; inventory was 1168 tons, down 0.01%. SHFE gold's closing price (active contract) was 961.22 yuan/gram, up 1.63%; trading volume was 52.98 million lots, up 26.50%; inventory was 90.43 tons, up 0.90% [5]. - **Silver**: COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) on November 13 was 52.23 dollars/ounce, down 1.88% from the previous day; trading volume was 251.01 million lots, up 69.49%; inventory was 14815 tons, down 0.39%. SHFE silver's closing price (active contract) was 12588.00 yuan/kilogram, up 4.27%; trading volume was 78.30 million lots, up 4.23%; inventory was 584.01 tons, up 0.16% [5].

11月13日，央行公布10月金融统计数据。广义货币（M2）和社会融资规模增速均保持在较高水平，持 续为经济回升向好创造适宜的货币金融环境。 具体看，2025年10月末，M2余额335.13万亿元，同比增长8.2%，比上年同期高0.8个百分点，在上年同 期基数提高的背景下，仍保持较高增速。 社会融资规模存量437.72万亿元，同比增长8.5%，比上年同期高0.7个百分点。1至10月，社会融资规模 增量为30.9万亿元，同比多增3.83万亿元。 "总体来看，M2和社会融资规模增速均保持在较高水平，持续为经济回升向好创造适宜的货币金融环 境。其中，广义货币（M2）余额335.13万亿元，同比增长8.2%，比上年同期高0.8个百分点，在上年同 期基数提高的背景下，仍保持较高增速。"业内专家表示。 图片来源：视觉中国 来源：北京日报客户端 记者：潘福达 该团队称，综合考虑近期外部环境及国内经济金融形势变化，着眼于稳定今年四季度及明年一季度宏观 经济运行，更大力度促进房地产市场止跌回稳，年底前货币政策将进一步加力。 数量型政策方面，在近期央行持续通过买断式逆回购、MLF（中期借贷便利）等政策工具向市场注入 中期流动性，并 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook emphasized that inflation pressures remain severe, with expectations that inflation rates will stay above the 2% policy target for the next 2 to 3 years, advocating for a restrictive monetary policy to maintain the Fed's credibility [1] Group 1: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Cook highlighted the challenges faced by the Fed in balancing its dual mandate of inflation and employment, describing the current monetary policy environment as difficult [1] - She noted that while recent economic performance seems unaffected by Fed policies, service inflation is concerning, and upcoming tariffs may further elevate inflation rates early next year [1] - Cook made a seemingly contradictory assessment of the current policy stance, stating that monetary policy is nearly non-restrictive, yet there is a need to maintain some degree of tightening to alleviate inflation pressures [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Response - Cook indicated that the recent rise in neutral interest rates suggests that even if nominal rates remain unchanged, the actual policy stance could become more accommodative [1] - Regarding the dollar's performance, she reassured that the recent weakening of the dollar is not alarming, as it is a correction from an extremely strong position, bringing it closer to its theoretical fair value [1] Group 3: Employment and Technological Impact - On the employment front, Cook described the current job market as seemingly balanced but still concerning, with the unemployment rate near its highest level and a softening job market posing challenges for the Fed's employment mandate [2] - She reiterated the importance of the Fed's independence in achieving employment and inflation goals, asserting that political factors do not influence monetary policy decisions [2] - Cook expressed caution regarding the impact of emerging technologies, stating it is premature to assess the effects of artificial intelligence, suggesting that time will reveal whether valuations of AI companies are justified [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has faced criticism, necessitating clear and transparent communication regarding changes in bond holdings and policy intentions [1] - The balance sheet serves multiple functions, including regulating bank reserves and supporting monetary policy implementation, and should be adjusted dynamically based on financial system needs [1] - The Fed is nearing the end of a three-year balance sheet reduction plan and is discussing the potential need to restart bond purchases to ensure alignment between bank reserves and system demand [1] Group 2 - There is cautious optimism regarding the U.S. economic outlook, with a significant reduction in uncertainty, although concerns about a slowdown in the labor market are increasing [2] - Inflation is decreasing but remains persistent, particularly in the services sector, and the Fed aims to reduce inflation to 2% while maintaining the credibility of this target [2] - The impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on employment is not yet clear, with no significant reports of job losses attributed to AI, and it is believed that AI investments will not create a bubble similar to the tulip mania [2] - The balance of policy risks is expected to be heavily tilted towards inflation until mid-2025, after which it may begin to shift towards a more balanced state [2]

广义货币（M_2）和社会融资规模增速保持较高水平、贷款规模合理增长、信贷结构持续优化、贷 款利率保持低位……中国人民银行11月13日公布的10月份金融统计数据报告显示，适度宽松的货币政策 持续显效，货币金融条件相对宽松，我国经济高质量发展有着坚实支撑。 融资渠道日益多元 初步统计，今年10月末社会融资规模存量为437.72万亿元，同比增长8.5%；前10个月社会融资规模 增量累计为30.9万亿元，比上年同期多3.83万亿元。 据市场人士测算，今年前10个月，政府债券累计发行规模约22万亿元，比去年同期多近4万亿元， 企业发债融资也高于去年同期。"国债和特殊再融资债券等政府债券发行进度较快、企业债券发行热度 较高，对社会融资规模增长形成重要支撑。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，今年超长期特别国债 发行规模从去年的1万亿元扩大至1.3万亿元，首发时间比去年提前约一个月，发行完毕时间也相应提 前，体现出财政政策对经济增长及需求拉动的支持，也带动了社会融资规模增长。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬认为，加大政府债券发行规模，能够支持重大项目建设和国家重大 战略实施，助力扩大需求、支撑经济。同时，不少政府债券用于置换融 ...

新华财经北京11月14日电美联储理事克里斯托弗·穆萨莱姆（Christopher Waller）周四发表讲话，明确表 示当前货币政策立场"更接近中性，而非适度紧缩"，并指出在此背景下进一步放松政策的空间"有限"， 前提是避免政策变得"过度宽松"。 穆萨莱姆强调："展望未来，我们需要谨慎行事。"他指出，当前通胀率仍高达3%，显著高于美联储2% 的长期目标，因此"需要继续对高于目标的通胀保持压力"，同时兼顾对劳动力市场的支持。 关于通胀前景，穆萨莱姆预测，在"采取适当的货币政策"的前提下，通胀将"从明年下半年开始下降"。 他同时提到，关税带来的价格压力预计也将在同期消退。 在金融环境方面，穆萨莱姆称"银行体系状况良好"，并指出"非常宽松的金融条件和放松监管是利好因 素"。但他亦提醒，除数据中心相关投资外，"其他领域的投资一直较为低迷"，且企业因不确定性"正在 缩减招聘规模"。 对于近期技术变革的影响，穆萨莱姆表示，人工智能确实在"提高生产力的同时取代工人"，但他怀 疑"大多数已宣布的裁员与人工智能无关，更可能是普通的自动化技术"所致。 （文章来源：新华财经） 尽管此前支持降息以保护就业市场，穆萨莱姆表示，随着经济 ...

Core Viewpoint - The monetary policy outlook for 2026 indicates a continuation of a moderately accommodative stance, with a shift in the path of easing measures [1] Economic Outlook - China's economy is expected to maintain stable growth in 2026, with a moderate recovery in prices [1] - The RMB exchange rate is projected to show a steady appreciation [1] Monetary Policy Goals - The primary objectives of monetary policy will focus on full employment and financial stability [1] Easing Pathways - The pathways for monetary easing will revolve around three main lines: stabilizing expectations, preventing risks, and coordinating with fiscal policy [1] - A reduction in policy interest rates by 10-20 basis points is anticipated for the year [1] - There will be an enhancement in the efficiency of monetary policy transmission, leading to a simultaneous decrease in deposit and loan rates [1] - A 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut is expected to reduce bank costs [1] Central Bank Actions - The central bank has resumed purchasing government bonds, which is expected to be the most significant pathway for implementing monetary easing in 2026 [1] - The central bank's balance sheet is projected to show steady expansion in 2026 [1]

与哈马克态度相似，圣路易斯联储主席穆萨勒姆也呼吁在继续降息方面保持谨慎。他支持此前的降息举 措，认为有助于支撑劳动力市场，但强调当前通胀仍高于美联储目标，政策仍需保持一定的限制性。穆 萨勒姆表示："我们必须谨慎前行，因为进一步宽松的空间有限，过度降息可能会让货币政策变得过于 宽松。"他认为当前政策处于"略微偏紧与中性之间"，既要抑制通胀，也要适度支持就业。 ...

Core Points - The White House warns that the federal government shutdown may permanently affect the release of October's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and employment data, leading to incomplete information for the Federal Reserve's decision-making [1][2] - The temporary funding bill passed by Congress is set to expire at the end of January, indicating that the risk of another government shutdown remains [1] Group 1 - The White House press secretary stated that even if the government shutdown ends, the October CPI and employment data may be irreparably compromised, resulting in the Federal Reserve being "in the dark" during critical decision-making periods [1] - During the shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics was largely inactive, affecting its data collection and reporting functions, which delayed the release of September's employment data and led to a rushed compilation of CPI data [1] - The Labor Statistics Bureau had to recall some employees who were on unpaid leave due to the shutdown to complete the necessary reports [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold a monetary policy meeting in the second week of December, and if the October CPI and employment data are not released, the Fed may have to make decisions based on incomplete information [2]