金老虎：黄金冲顶4642后跳水！是狂欢反转，还是回调冷静？ 昨天，黄金市场绝对上演了一出惊心动魄的"大戏"。看着K线在午夜三点冲上4642美元的巅峰，那种心 跳加速的感觉，相信咱们做黄金的人都懂。仿佛所有人都在欢呼，新的时代来了！然而，市场永远不缺 意外。今天开盘后的回落，特别是从4632掉头向下的这一波，又让不少人心头一紧。 这上蹿下跳的行情，到底在搞什么名堂？是上车的机会，还是离场的信号？ 抛开那些冷冰冰的数据，咱们好好唠唠这背后的门道。 一、 昨天的疯狂：为什么能冲上4642？ 昨天那波从4589到4642的拉升，不是无缘无故的，是几股力量拧成了一股绳： 1：首先是凌晨美国CPI数据给了多头底气，12月核心CPI环比仅涨0.2%，低于预期的0.3%，虽然整体 通胀仍稳在2.7%，但核心指标降温让市场押注美联储降息节奏不会滞后，美元指数承压走软，以美元 计价的黄金自然获得支撑反弹； 来源：金老虎首席分析师 今天的下跌，说实话，我并不觉得意外。这就像是人跑得太快了，总要停下来喘口气。 1："落袋为安"的收割潮： 这是最直接的原因。4642是一个历史性的高位，对于很多在低位（比如 4000、4200）就埋伏进 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. long-term Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield at 4.14% and the 30-year yield at a one-month low of 4.79%, driven by rising market risk aversion and geopolitical concerns [1] - The U.K. bond market strengthened, with the 10-year U.K. bond yield dropping to a new low of 4.35%, reflecting pessimism about the U.K. economic growth outlook [1] - The U.S. stock market has seen declines for two consecutive days, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices falling by 0.53% and 1.00%, respectively [1] Group 2 - The U.S. White House announced a 25% import tariff on certain semiconductor products starting January 15 [1] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for November 2025 showed a seasonally adjusted month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures at the production level [1] - Energy prices surged by 4.6% month-on-month, contributing over 80% to the overall commodity price increase, with gasoline prices rising by 10.5% [2] Group 3 - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 rose by 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous month's increase and exceeding market expectations [2] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 2.6% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to the previous month [2] - Retail and food service sales in the U.S. for November 2025 reached $735.9 billion, a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, surpassing market consensus expectations [3]

美国劳工部在当日盘前发布的数据显示，美国2025年11月生产者价格指数环比增加0.2%，而市场预期 和前月环比涨幅均为0.3%；该指数同比涨幅为3%，前月涨幅和市场预期均为2.7%。扣除食品和能源， 11月核心生产者价格指数环比上涨0.2%，与市场预期一致，但高于前月的0.1%；该核心指数同比涨幅 为3%，高于前月的2.6%。 美国全国地产经纪商协会当日发布的数据显示，美国2025年12月现房销售年率为435万套，高于市场预 期的423万套和前一月的414万套。 新华财经纽约1月14日电（记者刘亚南）由于科技权重股和金融股走低拖累，纽约股市三大股指14日早 间高开，早盘震荡走低，尾盘跌幅收窄，收盘时纽约股市三大股指均下跌。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日下跌42.36点，收于49149.63点，跌幅为0.09%；标准 普尔500种股票指数下跌37.14点，收于6926.6点，跌幅为0.53%；纳斯达克综合指数下跌238.123点，收 于23471.749点，跌幅为1.00%。 板块方面，标普500指数十一大板块六涨五跌。能源板块和必需消费品板块分别以2.26%和1.18%涨幅领 涨，非必需消费品 ...

申万宏源宏观 数据点评 | 通胀，风险暂时可控——2025年12月美国CPI数据点评（申万宏观·赵伟团队） 原创 阅读全文 ...

2026.01.15 本文字数：2139，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 樊志菁 此前，英伟达凭借人工智能概念股热潮，一直在全球金融市场占据领先地位。但长期被视为传统避险资 产的白银，依托贵金属属性与工业实用价值的双重加持，上演了一场出人意料的逆袭。 从历史上看，黄金一直是这两种贵金属中价值更高的品种，在金融与贸易领域常被奉为 "金本位"的标 杆。然而，随着市场趋势与工业需求的转变，白银的价值正在被挖掘。 据企业市值数据平台companiesmarketcap 显示，持续创下历史新高的白银，在周三市值突破5万亿美 元，超过英伟达成功跻身全球价值第二高的资产，仅次于黄金。 首先通胀会侵蚀纸币储蓄的价值，促使更多人投向白银等有形资产。而地缘政治不确定性以及最新升级 的美联储独立性担忧的局面，可能会为白银价格进一步冲高创造必要条件。 全球央行与政府政策对贵金属的价值有着显著影响。历史上，央行一直将黄金作为储备资产，但如今部 分投资者和政府对白银的兴趣正日益浓厚。若央行采取行动丰富储备资产组合，也可能增加对白银的需 求，从而影响其市场价格。 推动白银这一轮涨势的并非只有避险资产需求。供需平衡是一个不可忽视的因素 ...

对于美联储内部决策分歧(12月降息25基点遭三位官员反对)，卡什卡利认为，下一任主席的可信度关键 在于其在委员会中的说服力，需依靠数据和分析赢得投票，而非行政指令。 【最新国际黄金行情解析】 黄金价格在小周期内呈现较为明显的4600-4640区间波动特征，此区间内应以逢低做多、看涨回升为主 要操作思路，重点关注4600上下的支撑位置。 摘要今日周四(1月15日)亚盘时段，国际黄金最新报价为1030.14元/克，较前一交易日下跌6.59元，跌幅 0.64%，日内呈现高开低走走势。当日开盘价报1036.52元/克，盘中最高触及1037.79元/克，最低下探至 1027.03元/克。 今日周四(1月15日)亚盘时段，国际黄金最新报价为1030.14元/克，较前一交易日下跌6.59元，跌幅 0.64%，日内呈现高开低走走势。当日开盘价报1036.52元/克，盘中最高触及1037.79元/克，最低下探至 1027.03元/克。 【要闻速递】 明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利近日就美联储独立性问题发声，称特朗普政府过去一年针对美联储的行 动"本质上是关于货币政策的"。在司法部向美联储送达大陪审团传票、启动针对主席鲍威尔的刑事 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, individual commodity ratings can be inferred from the trend strength: - **Positive Outlook**: Gold, Silver, Copper, Tin, Aluminum, PX, PTA, MEG, Synthetic Rubber, Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil [2][9][19][23][62][73][124] - **Neutral Outlook**: Platinum, Palladium, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Carbonate Lithium, Industrial Silicon, Polycrystalline Silicon, Iron Ore, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Ferrosilicon, Manganese Silicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Steam Coal, Logs, Short - Fiber, Bottle Chips, Pure Benzene, Soybean Meal, Soybean, Corn, Cotton, Eggs, Peanuts [26][30][31][36][39][40][43][45][49][53][57][59][142][150][158][159][162][170][175][182] - **Negative Outlook**: Zinc, PVC, Caustic Soda, Rubber, Benzene Ethylene, Soda Ash, LPG, Propylene, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Sugar, Live Pigs [12][121][81][70][103][107][112][113][153][166][178] Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities in the futures market, including their price trends, fundamental data, and market news. It suggests that investors should pay attention to factors such as supply - demand balance, cost support, and geopolitical events when making investment decisions. For example, for PX and PTA, although the supply is relatively loose, the cost - end support from oil prices may drive the prices up, but the decline in downstream demand needs to be monitored [68]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. The price is affected by factors such as the US economic data and the Fed's interest - rate policy [5]. - **Silver**: Reached a new high. The price shows a strong upward trend [5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The strengthening of LME spot premium supports the price. The global copper demand is expected to increase significantly by 2040, but the production of some major copper producers has declined [9][11]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the upper - level pressure. The price is affected by factors such as inventory changes and macro - news [12]. - **Lead**: The decrease in overseas inventory supports the price. The market is influenced by macro - economic data and industry news [16]. - **Tin**: Strong upward movement. The price has increased significantly [19]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillating strongly. Alumina is in range - bound oscillation, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [23]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - Related**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East affects the oil price, which in turn impacts the prices of related chemical products such as PX, PTA, and MEG [62]. - **PTA**: The polyester production - cut plan has increased, and attention should be paid to the implementation strength. The price is influenced by cost and downstream demand [62]. - **MEG**: The downside space of valuation is limited [62]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: There are doubts about Indonesia's B50 policy, and the POGO is expected to shrink [63]. - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillating, waiting for the progress of China - Canada trade events [65]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot price [67]. - **Sugar**: Weak operation [68]. - **Cotton**: Continuing the adjustment trend [69]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East; weak operation. The price is affected by factors such as shipping capacity, demand, and spot freight rates [126].

在持续通胀、美元走弱、各国央行需求上升以及投资者在经济不确定性中寻求避险资产等多重因素的 共同作用下，大量资金正涌入白银市场。那么，白银何时可以跨越近在咫尺的100美元呢？ 2026.01. 15 本文字数：2139，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 周三，今年势如破竹的白银期货价格再次大涨，连续攻克90-93共四个整数关口。过去五年间，白银 价格稳步攀升，2025年开启的这轮涨势尤为引人注目，区间累计涨幅已超过200%。 历史性超越 据企业市值数据平台companiesmarketcap 显示，持续创下历史新高的白银，在周三市值突破5万亿美 元，超过英伟达成功跻身全球价值第二高的资产，仅次于黄金。 此前，英伟达凭借人工智能概念股热潮，一直在全球金融市场占据领先地位。但长期被视为传统避险 资产的白银，依托贵金属属性与工业实用价值的双重加持，上演了一场出人意料的逆袭。 从历史上看，黄金一直是这两种贵金属中价值更高的品种，在金融与贸易领域常被奉为 "金本位"的 标杆。然而，随着市场趋势与工业需求的转变，白银的价值正在被挖掘。 首先通胀会侵蚀纸币储蓄的价值，促使更多人投向白银等有形资产。而地缘政治不确 ...

最新公布的 CPI 数据再次印证了许多美国家庭在 2025 年的切身感受：通胀虽已远离疫情期间的高点，但价格压力依然挥之不去。根据 CBS News 报道，美 国 12 月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨 2.7%，与 11 月持平，也基本符合市场预期。 这一 CPI 读数为 2025 年画下句点。尽管整体经济表现出一定韧性，就业市场保持稳定，但持续上涨的生活成本仍对消费者形成明显挤压。对政策制定者、 投资者以及普通家庭而言，CPI 依旧是衡量经济健康状况的关键指标。 原因之一在于零售商吸收了部分成本压力，从而抑制了 CPI 的进一步上行。这也反映出 CPI 并非单一政策变量的直接结果，而是多方力量博弈后的综合体 现。 CPI 用于衡量一篮子常见消费品和服务价格的变化，包括食品、住房、服装与交通等。12 月 CPI 同比上涨 2.7%，略高于 FactSet 调查中经济学家预计的 2.6%。 根据 CBS News，这一结果表明，通胀在年末并未进一步缓解，而是进入相对"黏性"的阶段。价格上涨并非全面扩散，而是集中在部分核心消费领域，使得 CPI 所反映的通胀体验因人而异。 从宏观角度来看，12 月 CPI 反 ...

Market Overview - Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened lower, with the Nikkei 225 index down 0.56% at 54039.40 points and the KOSPI down 0.27% at 4710.28 points [1] - US stock indices closed lower on January 14, with the Dow Jones down 42.36 points (0.09%) at 49149.63 points, the Nasdaq down 238.12 points (1.00%) at 23471.75 points, and the S&P 500 down 37.14 points (0.53%) at 6926.99 points [1] - Metal prices continued their strong upward trend, with spot silver rising over 7% on January 14, surpassing $93, and year-to-date gains exceeding 28%. Spot gold reached a historical high of $4643 per ounce [1] International Macro - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 3% year-on-year increase in PPI for November 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, matching expectations. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, also rose 3% year-on-year [3] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated that economic activity in most regions of the US has recently increased, with stable employment conditions but persistent inflationary pressures [3] - The White House announced a 25% import tariff on certain semiconductor products starting January 15 [3] Central Bank Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve has become a focal point for the market, with multiple officials emphasizing its importance for long-term inflation rates. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee highlighted that a lack of central bank independence could lead to rising inflation [4] - European Central Bank officials warned that undermining the Fed's independence could increase inflation and threaten financial stability [4] Institutional Views - Citigroup has raised its short-term price forecasts for gold and silver due to heightened geopolitical risks, physical shortages, and renewed uncertainty regarding the Fed's independence. The target price for gold has been increased to $5000 per ounce and for silver to $100 per ounce [5]