9月5日，深圳发布新一轮楼市调控政策，新政通过分区优化住房限购、放宽企业购房限制、统一信贷政策等组合拳，在一定程度上激活了市场情绪。如今新政实施 已满一周时间，从市场反馈与核心数据来看，政策的短期刺激效应已初步显现。 市场仍以价换量 据深圳贝壳研究院监测，新政后九天（9月6日至9月14日），贝壳深圳合作门店二手房签约量较8月同期增长64%。分区域来看，政策放宽力度与成交增幅呈现强烈 关联，其中盐田区在限购全面取消后，成交量迎来强势上涨，增幅高达217%；罗湖区紧随其后，因其放开购房套数限制，同比增长157%。 记者发现，除了盐田区和罗湖区，包括宝安、龙岗、福田等区的二手房成交量也有较大幅度的上升。深圳市房地产中介协会最新公布的数据显示，上周全市二手房 （含自助）录得1554套，环比增长15.4%，反映出深圳楼市新政对市场有明显拉动作用。深圳贝壳研究院院长肖小平指出，在新政带动下，深圳房地产市场的潜在 购房需求正在被加快激活，"金九"热度正持续上升。 近日，记者走访罗湖区多家房产二手房中介门店和新楼项目，发现客户咨询量和市场热度有所回暖。多位资深二手房中介经理对记者表示，目前的二手房市场还 是"以价换量"，业主 ...

单有所释放；同时持货商出货意愿较高，国内市场保持去库趋势，现货升水持稳。技术面，持仓减量价格 回调，多空交投分歧，关注MA5支撑。操作上，建议暂时观望，或逢回调轻仓做多。 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 免责声明 不锈钢产业日报 2025-09-16 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12970 | -100 10-11月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -115 | -5 -3043 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -16843 | -1804 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 130786 | | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 95745 | -604 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 13850 | 50 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9600 | 0 | ...

Group 1: Market Recovery - The real estate sector is experiencing a recovery with leading companies like Vanke A showing significant stock performance, achieving an 8-day consecutive rise with a total increase of 7.81%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index's 2.55% during the same period [1] - Other major players such as China Vanke, Gemdale, and Poly Developments have also seen stock price increases of 12.66%, 3.37%, and 6.73% respectively over the past 8 trading days, all surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index [1] - More than 28 companies in the real estate development sector have recorded a cumulative stock price increase of over 10% since September, accounting for more than 30% of the sector [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - Vanke A reported a revenue of 105.32 billion yuan and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 11.95 billion yuan for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year decrease of 26.2% and 21.3% respectively [1] - The company has successfully repaid 24.39 billion yuan of public debt by the end of August and has no foreign public debt due before 2027 [1] Group 3: Debt Restructuring - As of August 2025, 20 domestic real estate companies have received approval for debt restructuring, with a total debt restructuring scale exceeding 1.2 trillion yuan [2] - Vanke A, Country Garden, and Sunac China have seen their debt levels decrease by more than 10% compared to the end of June 2024 [2] Group 4: Policy Support - Various cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, have introduced new policies since late August to stimulate housing consumption, contributing to the recovery of leading real estate companies' stock prices [2] - Approximately 190 cities have implemented nearly 440 real estate optimization policies this year [2] Group 5: Market Sentiment - The real estate market in first-tier cities is showing signs of stabilization, with a narrowing decline in new home prices, attributed to ongoing policy support [3] - The real estate brokerage industry's sentiment index rose by 2.8 to 47.26 in August, marking the largest single-month increase of the year [3]

大同证券近日发布煤炭行业周报：本周，重大活动结束后，煤炭产量增加，随着天气转 凉，电煤进入淡季，非电煤迎来旺季，叠加国庆节来临，下游备货需求有望释放，预计煤炭 价格企稳回升。煤炭产量逐渐恢复，但终端需求疲软，焦煤价格走低，随着"金九银十"和国 庆假期来临，下游钢焦企业或启动补库，有望支撑煤价止跌企稳。 以下为研究报告摘要： 权益市场以涨为主，煤炭板块跑输指数。8月，核心CPI同比上涨0.9%，涨幅连续第4个 月扩大，PPI同比下降2.9%，降幅比上月收窄0.7个百分点，消费市场总体平稳，部分行业供 需逐步改善，美国8月非农数据不及预期，导致美联储9月降息概率飙升，市场呈先抑后扬态 势，平均成交2.3万亿元，量能降低，市场轮动加剧，煤炭跑输大盘指数。 综合上述分析，动力煤方面，重大活动结束后，抑制煤炭产能释放因素减轻，煤炭产量 增加，随着天气转凉，电煤进入淡季，非电煤迎来旺季，叠加国庆节来临，下游备货需求有 望释放，预计煤炭价格企稳回升。炼焦煤方面，煤炭主产区产量逐渐恢复，但终端需求疲 软，焦煤价格走低，随着"金九银十"和国庆假期来临，下游钢焦企业或启动补库，有望支撑 煤价止跌企稳。二级市场方面，8月，核心CP ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The performance of finished products is expected to be weak with a downward - shifting center of gravity, showing an oscillatory and consolidating trend [1][2] - Aluminum ingot prices are expected to be supported by macro - expectations, with short - term price strength. Attention should be paid to inventory consumption during the peak season [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown will affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output; Anhui short - process steel mills' shutdown will affect a daily output of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [2] - Finished products prices continued to decline, and the market was pessimistic under the pattern of weak supply and demand. Winter storage was sluggish this year, providing little price support [2] Aluminum Ingot - Aluminum prices were strong yesterday. Investors are waiting for the Fed to resume interest rate cuts, and Trump called for faster monetary policy easing. China's industrial growth in August supported aluminum demand [1] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained high, with a slight increase in the industry's operating rate. The proportion of molten aluminum is expected to rise slightly [2] - Alumina prices fluctuated narrowly, and the immediate cost of electrolytic aluminum changed little. Although the weekly cost decreased, the demand improved, and the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises rose by 0.4 percentage points to 62.1% [2] - On September 15, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas increased. The inflection point of inventory reduction in September needs further observation [2]

Core Insights - The automotive market is experiencing a surge in new car launches, with at least 30 new models expected in September alone, marking the beginning of a competitive sales season in the fourth quarter [1] - The new car releases span various price ranges from 50,000 to 500,000 yuan, intensifying competition across the entire passenger vehicle market [2] - Promotional strategies, including price cuts and financing offers, are being implemented by multiple automakers to stimulate demand during this peak sales period [3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "Golden September and Silver October" period is traditionally a peak time for car purchases, with the National Day holiday seen as a critical window for boosting sales [4] - The upcoming changes in tax policies for electric vehicles are prompting consumers to accelerate their purchasing decisions, as the exemption on vehicle purchase tax will be reduced starting January 2026 [4] - Regional auto shows during the National Day holiday are expected to further energize market activity, with over ten cities hosting events that could stimulate local consumption [5] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - New models targeting entry-level and economic segments are being launched to attract young consumers, while the competition in the 200,000 to 300,000 yuan range is particularly fierce, exemplified by the pre-sale success of the new Aion M7 [2] - Luxury brands are also adapting to local consumer preferences, with new energy products being introduced to challenge traditional luxury offerings [2] - The automotive industry is entering a phase of high-intensity competition, where product strength, user experience, and differentiation will be crucial for brands to stand out amidst the influx of new vehicles [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Bullish in the medium to long term, recommend buying on dips for stock indices; hold a wait-and-see attitude for treasury bonds [1][5] - Black building materials: Range trading for coking coal and rebar; recommend buying on dips for glass [1][7][8] - Non-ferrous metals: Wait-and-see or hold long positions on dips for copper, with short-term trading; recommend buying on dips after a pullback for aluminum; recommend waiting or shorting on rallies for nickel; range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][10][16][17] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, urea, and methanol are expected to trade in a range; rubber is expected to trade with a bullish bias; polyolefins are expected to trade in a wide range; recommend an arbitrage strategy of shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract for soda ash [1][20][23][31][33] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn, PTA are expected to trade in a range; apples are expected to trade with a bullish bias; jujubes are expected to trade with a bearish bias [1][37][39] - Agricultural and livestock products: Recommend shorting on rallies for hogs and eggs; corn is expected to trade in a range; soybean meal is expected to trade in a range; oils are expected to trade with a bullish bias [1][41][43][47] Core Views - The A-share market is in a structural bull market, with the logic of the liquidity bull market remaining unchanged. The market has formed a "bull market mindset," and one should not easily use the experience and rules of a sideways or bear market as signals [5] - The bond market is expected to remain weak in the short term, and any rebound should be treated as a short-term rally [5] - The glass market is expected to strengthen in the short term, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the arrival of the peak season [9] - The copper market is expected to remain strong in the short term, supported by the weakening US dollar and the expected improvement in domestic demand [10] - The aluminum market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [12] - The nickel market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend in the medium to long term, due to the expected increase in supply and the weakening demand [16] - The tin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [16] - The silver and gold markets are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [17][18] - The PVC market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [20] - The caustic soda market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in demand and the reduction in supply [23] - The styrene market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the weakening demand and the high inventory [25] - The rubber market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [27] - The urea market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [28] - The methanol market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [31] - The polyolefin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [33] - The soda ash market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [36] - The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [37] - The PTA market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [38] - The apple market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [39] - The jujube market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [40] - The hog market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [41] - The egg market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [42] - The corn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [43] - The soybean meal market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [46] - The oil market is expected to remain strong in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [47] Summary by Category Macro-finance - Stock indices: The A-share market is in a structural bull market, with the logic of the liquidity bull market remaining unchanged. The market has formed a "bull market mindset," and one should not easily use the experience and rules of a sideways or bear market as signals. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [5] - Treasury bonds: The bond market is expected to remain weak in the short term, and any rebound should be treated as a short-term rally. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [5] Black building materials - Coking coal: The coking coal market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [7] - Rebar: The rebar market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [7] - Glass: The glass market is expected to strengthen in the short term, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the arrival of the peak season. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [9] Non-ferrous metals - Copper: The copper market is expected to remain strong in the short term, supported by the weakening US dollar and the expected improvement in domestic demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [10] - Aluminum: The aluminum market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [12] - Nickel: The nickel market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend in the medium to long term, due to the expected increase in supply and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [16] - Tin: The tin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [16] - Silver and gold: The silver and gold markets are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [17][18] Energy and chemicals - PVC: The PVC market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [20] - Caustic soda: The caustic soda market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [23] - Styrene: The styrene market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the weakening demand and the high inventory. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [25] - Rubber: The rubber market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [27] - Urea: The urea market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [28] - Methanol: The methanol market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [31] - Polyolefins: The polyolefin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [33] - Soda ash: The soda ash market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [36] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [37] - PTA: The PTA market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [38] - Apples: The apple market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [39] - Jujubes: The jujube market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [40] Agricultural and livestock products - Hogs: The hog market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [41] - Eggs: The egg market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [42] - Corn: The corn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [43] - Soybean meal: The soybean meal market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [46] - Oils: The oil market is expected to remain strong in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [47]

Group 1 - The automotive market is experiencing a surge in new car launches, with at least 30 new models expected to be released in September alone, marking the beginning of a competitive sales season in the fourth quarter [1] - The new car launches cover a wide price range from 50,000 to 500,000 yuan, intensifying competition across the entire passenger vehicle market [2] - Several automakers are implementing promotional strategies, including price reductions and financing offers, to stimulate demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" sales period [3] Group 2 - The "Golden September and Silver October" period is traditionally a peak time for car purchases, with the upcoming National Day holiday seen as a critical window for boosting sales [4] - The impending changes to tax policies for electric vehicles are prompting consumers to accelerate their purchasing decisions, as the exemption on vehicle purchase tax will be reduced starting January 2026 [4] - Multiple regional auto shows during the National Day holiday are expected to further energize the market, with over ten cities hosting events that could stimulate local consumption [5] Group 3 - The current competitive landscape in the Chinese automotive market requires companies to focus on product strength, user experience, and differentiation to succeed, rather than relying solely on price promotions [5]

Group 1 - The automotive market is entering a peak period for new car launches, with at least 30 new models expected to be released in September alone, including notable models from various brands [1] - The "Golden September and Silver October" sales period is traditionally a peak time for consumers to purchase vehicles, and many automakers are intensifying their efforts to capture market share before the end of the year [1][4] Group 2 - The new car launches cover a wide price range from 50,000 to 500,000 yuan, indicating a competitive landscape across the entire passenger vehicle market [2] - In the entry-level and economy segments around 100,000 yuan, several models are set to launch, targeting young consumers with high cost-performance ratios [2] - The competition is particularly fierce in the 200,000 to 300,000 yuan segment, with the new Aion M7 achieving over 100,000 pre-orders within an hour of its pre-sale launch [2] Group 3 - Multiple automakers are reintroducing promotional policies, leading to a new wave of price reductions, with Tesla recently lowering prices on its Model 3 and Model Y [3] - Experts predict a 10% year-on-year increase in sales for October, driven by the influx of new models and the potential for consumers to advance their purchasing plans due to expiring tax exemptions on electric vehicles [3][4] Group 4 - The tightening of policy windows is prompting consumers to make purchases sooner, as the exemption for vehicle purchase tax for electric vehicles will end in 2025, leading to increased costs for consumers [4] - The upcoming National Day holiday is expected to further stimulate market activity, with numerous regional auto shows planned across major cities [5] Group 5 - The current competitive landscape in the Chinese automotive market requires automakers to focus on product strength, user experience, and differentiation to succeed beyond just price promotions [5] - The ability to stand out with solid product offerings will be crucial for automakers to navigate the industry reshuffling and embrace future opportunities [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no explicit industry investment rating provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: The risk appetite of funds has improved, and the industry is waiting for the confirmation of the peak demand in the peak season. There is a possibility of improvement in both supply and demand of steel during the "Golden September and Silver October" season. However, there are concerns about the high inventory of building materials. Futures prices are neutrally valued, and the price upward - driving force is not strong for now. Attention should be paid to whether the peak - season demand can accelerate in the next two weeks [2]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment has improved, but there are still hidden concerns in the fundamentals. The industry has turned from loss to profit, with increased supply. Terminal demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" needs to be verified, and there is a risk of a decline in iron - water and electric - furnace start - up rates, which may impact the demand for the two alloys [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The expectation of coal - mine over - production inspection has resurfaced. The second round of coke price cuts has been implemented. Although the black fundamentals are weakening marginally, the bottom support for coking coal and coke is relatively strong under the influence of domestic policy expectations and overseas interest - rate cuts. Pre - holiday inventory replenishment is approaching, and the previous long positions should be held [5]. - **Iron Ore**: During the inventory - replenishment period, iron ore has support, but its price increase height depends on the strength of steel demand. The supply of iron ore is expected to increase in the second half of the year, which will suppress the price increase. A long - at - low strategy is maintained in the long term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On September 15, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3205.00 yuan/ton with a 42.00 yuan increase (1.33% increase), HC2605 at 3374.00 yuan/ton with a 29.00 yuan increase (0.87% increase), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3136.00 yuan/ton with a 29.00 yuan increase (0.93% increase), HC2601 at 3370.00 yuan/ton with a 29.00 yuan increase (0.87% increase) [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spread between RB2601 and RB2605 was - 69.00 yuan/ton on September 15, with a - 13.00 yuan change. The roll - screw spread was 234.00 yuan/ton, with a - 3.00 yuan change. The screw - ore ratio was 3.94, with a 0.03 change, etc. [1] Spot Market - **Steel**: The spot price of Shanghai thread steel (HRB400 20mm) was 3260.00 yuan/ton on September 15, with a 12.50 yuan increase. The spot price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3420.00 yuan/ton, with a 10.00 yuan increase [1]. - **Alloys and Other Materials**: The spot price of Qingdao Port super - special powder was 700.00 yuan/ton on September 15, with a 9.00 yuan increase. The spot price of Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke (ex - warehouse) was 1480.00 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. Investment Strategies - **Steel**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. Pay attention to the contraction of the roll - screw spread of the 01 contract for disk arbitrage. Consider reverse arbitrage for spot - futures trading (end - user buying hedging) [7]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Industrial customers should pay attention to spot - futures positive arbitrage [7]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Hold the previous long positions [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Continue the strategy of going long at low prices [7].