Group 1 - The current spot gold price has risen slightly to $3303 per ounce before the non-farm payroll report [1] - The US Dollar Index (DXY) has seen a short-term increase of nearly 10 points, reaching 100.23 [1] Group 2 - The movements in spot gold and the US Dollar Index indicate market reactions ahead of significant economic data releases [2]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a technical rebound during Asian trading on Thursday, recovering from a significant drop the previous day, and successfully stabilized above the 100-day moving average [1][3] - Prior to this rebound, gold prices had fallen sharply to approximately $3,270, reaching a one-month low due to the impact of the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision [1] - The relative strength index (RSI) turned bearish, indicating that momentum favored sellers, as gold prices dipped below $3,300 per ounce and hit a three-week low [3] Group 2 - In the context of trade negotiations, Trump announced a 15% tariff on South Korean imports and a punitive 25% tariff on Indian imports, criticizing India's purchases of Russian energy and weapons [2] - Economists expressed concerns that the last-minute push for trade agreements could lead to greater economic costs for the countries involved, as they rush to avoid higher tariffs [2] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce reported constructive discussions between China and the U.S. regarding trade relations and macroeconomic policies, emphasizing the importance of continued dialogue and cooperation [2]

Core Insights - The US dollar index experienced a significant decline, trading around 96.37, while gold prices rose to approximately 3310.23 USD/oz, marking a 1.06% increase [1][2]. Economic Analysis - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated no specific preference regarding discussions on interest rate cuts in the upcoming September meeting. This, combined with better-than-expected US macroeconomic data, led to a rise in the dollar index to a two-month high, negatively impacting non-yielding assets like gold [3]. - Investors are awaiting new data, particularly the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which has provided some support for gold prices as dollar bulls have paused their aggressive strategies [3][4]. - Despite pressure from President Donald Trump and allies to lower borrowing costs, the Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time. This decision faced dissent from two board members, marking the first occurrence of dual dissenting votes since 1993 [3]. Employment and GDP Data - The Automatic Data Processing report indicated that 104,000 jobs were added in the US private sector in July, contrasting with a revised decrease of 23,000 jobs in the previous month. Additionally, the US Commerce Department reported a 3.0% annualized GDP growth rate for Q2, reversing a contraction of 0.5% in Q1 [4]. Gold Price Movement - Gold prices fell below an ascending triangle pattern on July 25, and the subsequent decline fulfilled the measured drop from the triangle consolidation. A rebound began from the lower boundary of the range, but upward movement is constrained by bearish moving averages, necessitating a stabilization period for the 10, 20, and 50 EMA before a renewed bullish attack can occur [5].

Core Viewpoint - The divergence between hawkish and dovish views within the Federal Reserve is intensifying, leading to a weak performance in gold prices, which are currently fluctuating between 3300 and 3350 [3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Divergence - The Federal Reserve's July meeting maintained interest rates, but notable internal dissent emerged, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point cut, while Powell emphasized no decisions had been made regarding September rates [3]. - The core disagreement stems from differing economic outlooks: hawks are concerned about inflation persistence due to tariffs, while doves focus on marginal deterioration in the job market [3]. Group 2: Market Expectations - The probability of a rate cut in September has decreased from 68% in June to 45%, although the market still anticipates at least one cut this year [4]. - Fluctuations in market expectations have caused gold to be influenced by both "policy expectation trading" and "actual data validation," leading to significant price movements [4]. Group 3: Commodity Market Interactions - A stronger dollar and increased risk appetite have impacted other commodity prices, with oil prices rising over 3% and drawing funds away from precious metals [6]. - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields has diminished gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold's price has shown a downward trend, breaking below the previous support level of 3345, with a focus on the 3250 support level [8]. - Technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook, with moving averages indicating downward momentum and Bollinger Bands showing a downward trend [8].

Group 1 - The spot gold market has attracted significant investor attention, with prices fluctuating between $3320 and $3335, and currently priced at $3331 per ounce, reflecting a slight increase of 0.14% from the previous day [1] - Gold prices have notably broken through the important level of $3330 per ounce, reaching a peak of $3333.93 per ounce during the trading session [1] Group 2 - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to witness a rare occurrence where multiple board members may cast dissenting votes, with members Waller and Bowman publicly supporting interest rate cuts, contrasting with Chairman Powell's cautious stance [2] - The influence of the Trump administration on the Federal Reserve is becoming increasingly evident, potentially ending the consensus culture that has existed since the 1990s [3] - Historical data indicates that collective dissent among Federal Reserve board members is extremely rare, with the last occurrence dating back to 1993 [2][3] Group 3 - The technical analysis of gold prices shows a complex situation, with previous declines indicating increased bearish momentum, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered the oversold territory, suggesting potential short-term rebound [4] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $3328 - $3330 and $3348 - $3350, while $3300 serves as a significant support level [4]

"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos发表文章称，本周的美联储会议可能会有两位理事持不同意见，这是30多 年来（或者说连续259次政策会议）从未出现过的情况。 鲍威尔和他的部分同事已经表示倾向于在本周的会议上保持观望态度，而潜在的反对者——美联储理事 沃勒和鲍曼——恰好是特朗普总统任命的两名人选。两人都表示支持降息，特朗普也公开要求降息。 值得注意的是，二人均为特朗普任命的官员，而特朗普近期频繁施压美联储，不仅突访总部、公开批评 鲍威尔领导力，更在鲍威尔明年5月任期结束前引发继任者角逐。 历史数据显示，美联储理事集体异议极为罕见，上一次出现还要追溯至1993年，此后的259次会议均未 再现这一场景。 美联储将于北京时间周四凌晨02:00公布利率决议，02:30鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。外界普遍预计，在 7月29日至30日的会议结束时，政策制定者将连续第五次维持利率不变。然而，几乎铁定将再度"按兵不 动"的美联储，却可能遭遇三十多年来最为嘹亮的"反对声"。 除沃勒和鲍曼外，其他成员均未表露出在本次会议上降息的倾向。6月会议纪要显示，部分官员甚至主 张今年不降息。本次会议上，理事阿德里安娜·库格勒（Adrian ...

Core Viewpoint - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. is recognized as the largest private gold producer in China, with a strong focus on gold mining and sales globally, and has been given a "Buy" rating in a recent research report [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company operates four precious metal mines domestically, with the Five Dragon Mine and Jilong Shanzizi Mine being the core contributors to its gold output, maintaining stable annual production and significant exploration results [1] - Internationally, the company manages two precious metal mines, with the Saipan Mine being a key player in gold production and the Vasa Mine acquired in 2022 expected to be a major source of future gold increments [1][2] Group 2: Resource and Cost Management - The company possesses excellent resource endowments and outstanding cost control capabilities, with its domestic mines being high-grade deposits that are rare in the domestic gold market, leading to top-tier profitability [2] - The company has a strategic focus on cost control, which has significantly improved its profitability and debt management, laying a solid foundation for future resource expansion and mergers [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - Short-term gold prices may face pressure, but the downside potential is limited, with expected upward momentum in the fourth quarter driven by anticipated liquidity easing from the Federal Reserve's policy shift [3] - The long-term outlook suggests that the U.S. debt burden exacerbated by the "Big and Beautiful Act" could provide potential opportunities for gold prices to trend upward [3] Group 4: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 12.205 billion yuan, 14.104 billion yuan, and 15.279 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to be 3.692 billion yuan, 4.311 billion yuan, and 4.886 billion yuan for the same years [4] - The current market valuation corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 13.76, 11.78, and 10.4 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, supporting the "Buy" rating based on future growth prospects [4] Group 5: Analyst Ratings - In the last 90 days, eight institutions have rated the stock, with seven "Buy" ratings and one "Hold" rating, and the average target price among institutions is 40.09 yuan [8]

从7月23日至28日，COMEX黄金期货价格连续4个交易日下跌，最低触及3300美元/盎司，28日收报 3310.0美元/盎司。 周生生足金饰品标价994元/克，较7月23日1029元/克的价格下跌35元/克；老庙黄金足金饰品标价995元/ 克，较23日1023元/克的价格下跌28元/克；周大福足金饰品标价998元/克，较23日1023元/克的价格下跌 25元/克。 编辑：孙懿辞 初审：梁爽 复审：曹光宇 终审：臧立 与此同时，现货黄金也从7月22日的3431高点后连续4个交易日下跌，7月28日收盘报3314.440美元/盎 司，6天跌超110美元/盎司。 7月29日，国内金饰价格跟跌，多品牌金饰价格均跌破千元。 金价短期下行，受到多重因素影响。专家提醒，未来黄金价格走势充满不确定性，投资者需谨慎。 ◆来源：中国经济网、国是直通车、中新经纬 ...

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Core Viewpoint - Domestic and international gold prices are experiencing downward pressure due to a favorable US-EU trade agreement and a strong US dollar, which diminishes gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3][4][5]. Group 1: Domestic Gold Price - As of 8:30 AM, the domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 770.84 CNY per gram, down 0.31% [1]. Group 2: International Gold Price - The international gold price is reported at 3307.4 USD per ounce, down 0.08% [2]. Group 3: Influencing Factors on Gold Prices - The US and EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, alleviating fears of a larger trade war and enhancing market optimism, which reduces the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - The strong performance of the US dollar, which rose 1% to a one-week high, makes gold more expensive for overseas buyers, further decreasing its attractiveness [4]. - Ongoing US-China trade negotiations are expected to provide limited breakthroughs, maintaining some uncertainty in the market, which may offer slight support for gold prices despite the downward pressures from the US-EU agreement and the strong dollar [5].