Economic Indicators - China's July Caixin/S&P Global Services PMI reached 52.6, exceeding expectations of 50.4 [1] - The Composite PMI registered 50.8 [1] - China's July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.5, below the anticipated 50.4 [2] Service Sector Performance - Service sector new business volume experienced a notable increase, marking a one-year high [1] - The improvement was attributed to enhanced basic demand and successful business expansion [1] - Foreign demand rebounded for the first time in three months, driven by increased tourism and stable trade conditions, leading to the highest export order growth since February [1] Manufacturing Sector Performance - China's manufacturing output experienced its second decline since October 2023 [3] - Surveyed companies attributed the production decrease to a slowdown in new order growth [3] - Manufacturers reported weak foreign demand, with new export orders contracting for the fourth consecutive month and at an accelerated pace compared to June [3] Cost Pressure - Average input costs continued to rise in July due to increased raw material, fuel, and payroll expenses [1]

（文章来源：第一财经） 中国香港7月标普全球制造业PMI为49.2，前值47.8。 ...

01 PART ONE 主要观点 PMI 2012 31 2025-08-04 F3014717 Z0013223 | 影响因素 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 本周国内大宗商品大幅走弱，其中，工业品、农产品同步下跌。主要原因一是美国如期在8月1日征收关税，二是美联储按兵不动，基调偏鹰，压制市场的风险偏 | | | 好；三是，国内政策预期明显降温，一方面增量政策预期落空，另一方面反内卷政策低于预期。 1）当地时间7月31日，特朗普签署"进一步修改对等关税税率"行政令，确定了对多个国家和地区征收的10%~41%不等的新对等关税税率，并于8月7日正式生效。 | | | 2）美国联邦公开市场委员会以9票赞成，2票反对，连续第五次会议维持利率在4.25%-4.50%区间不变。此前金融市场普遍预期央行将在9月降息，但鲍威尔认为经 济未来面临的部分风险有所上升，并对此表示"下结论为时尚早"，被解读为鹰派表态。3）美国二季度实际GDP环比大幅回升同比持平于2.0%，其中居民消费、 | | | 非住宅投资增长势头较为强劲，净出口逆差收窄，呈现出超预期的总体韧性。4）7月非农数据显示美国劳动力市场正 ...

宏观扰动增大 有色金属整体保持震荡 有色金属基础周报 2025-08-04 主要品种观点综述 | | | 美国6月核心PCE物价指数同比2.8%，创4个月新高，美联储7月如期维持利率不变，但美联储内部现30年未见的立场分歧，鲍威尔重申谨慎立场， | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 强调"尚未就9月会议做出决定，将依据未来数据谨慎决策"，进一步降温9月降息的预期；但ADP就业人数出炉，较前值及预期大幅下滑，美国 | | | | 高位震荡 | 经济可能在更大范围内走弱，因此市场则对9月降息报乐观态势。美国宣布只对铜材等半成品加关税，不涉及阴极铜和废铜等原料，纽约铜深跌。 | 区间交易 | | 铜 | 77000-79000 | 沪伦铜跟随走弱。国内行业反内卷与稳增长政策效应持续释放，铜供应端地震等扰动因素不断，低库存亦为铜价提供高位支撑，但当前铜产业仍 | 或观望 | | | | 处于淡季，铜材加工产能利用率走弱，下游采购需求难有明显增加。同时，美铜进口关税明晰后，海外市场库存回升明显，国内库存或面临回流 | | | | | 压力。8月初是国内外宏观数据密集公布时间，铜价宏观影 ...

Market Performance - Hang Seng Index closed at 24,507 points, down 265 points or 1.1%[1] - Shanghai Composite Index ended at 3,559 points, down 13 points or 0.37%[2] - S&P 500 Index fell by 101 points or 1.6%, closing at 6,238 points[3] Economic Indicators - PBOC conducted a 126 billion RMB reverse repo operation at a rate of 1.4%[2] - China's July manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.5, below expectations[2] - U.S. July non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, significantly below expectations[3] Sector Performance - A-share indices showed mixed performance with military and brokerage stocks declining, while traditional Chinese medicine and photovoltaic sectors rose[2] - BYD reported July production of 317,892 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%[5] - Xinyi Glass reported a 9.7% decline in revenue to 9.821 billion RMB for the six months ending June[5] OPEC+ Decisions - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, totaling approximately 2.5 million barrels per day, accounting for about 2.4% of global demand[4]

工业硅周报 反内卷情绪降温，工业硅大幅回落 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周工业硅大幅回落，主因国内反内卷情绪降温，光伏中 下游产业链主动收缩产能对硅料需求形成挤压，美国对等 关税落地拖累经济增长前景和全球工业品总需求。供应来 看，新疆地区开工率维持48%，川滇地区开工率回升至3成 附近，内蒙和甘肃产量弱稳运行，供应端仍在继续收缩； 从需求侧来看，多晶硅市场主要以历史订单补单成交为 主，上周价格稳定在45元/千克左右；硅片市场受原料成 本大幅抬升继续推涨报价，但当前售价并不能完全覆盖成 本，受出口退税影响电池订单短期持续向好；光伏电池市 场受集中式项目订单显著下降影响，价格上行空间有限， Topcon183N上周成交区间继续上行至0.29-0.3元/瓦，厂 商扩产意愿较为谨慎；组件端国内呈现有价无市格局，分 布式组件需求难有增量，仅靠HJT大尺寸组件溢价程度相 对较高出货较为坚挺，若原料不再继续走高，组件或进入 震荡走弱阶段，社会库存上周升至54万吨，工业硅现货市 场因盘面高位大幅回落受到承压。 ⚫ 整体来看，国内商品市场反内卷情绪有所降温，美国对等 关税落地或拖累全球经济增长，中国7月官方制造业PMI边 际萎缩拖累 ...

Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" policy has boosted prices, but supply and demand performance appears counterintuitive [3][8] - The manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.3%, exceeding the average decline since 2017 [3][8] - The increase in commodity prices is reflected in the raw material purchase price index (+3.1 percentage points to 51.5%) and the factory price index (+2.1 percentage points to 48.3%) [3][8] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI has marginally declined, with production and new order indices both decreasing [5][34] - The production index fell by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, while the new order index dropped by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4% [5][34] - The new export order index decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 47.1%, indicating a slowdown in market demand [5][38] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI fell by 0.4 percentage points to 50.1%, primarily due to a significant decline in the construction PMI [45] - The construction PMI decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 50.6%, with the new order index dropping sharply by 2.2 percentage points to 42.7% [6][61] - The service sector PMI showed a slight decline, with the new order index remaining weak at 46.3% [49] Key Industries - High-energy-consuming industries have shown production strength despite price increases, with the steel industry PMI rising by 4.6 percentage points [4][21] - The equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries experienced declines in PMI, falling by 1.1 and 0.9 percentage points to 50.3% and 49.5%, respectively [4][21] - Investment demand has weakened significantly, contrasting with the strong production performance in high-energy-consuming sectors [24][72] Future Outlook - The political bureau meeting in July emphasized the need for further implementation of the "anti-involution" policy, particularly focusing on the downstream effects and marginal changes in domestic demand [30][72] - The current situation indicates that the "anti-involution" policy in the upstream sectors still requires further advancement [30][72]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The capital rate in July continued to decline, and the capital market was relatively friendly. It is expected that the capital rate in August will likely maintain a stable and slightly loose pattern [2][6] Group 3: Summary of July Review - Most term capital rates declined in July. The operating centers of DR007 and DR014 decreased by 6bp and 8bp respectively, and those of R001, R007, and R014 decreased by 4bp, 10bp, and 12bp respectively. The deviation of DR007 from the policy rate also narrowed [2][12] - The number of days when DR007 dropped below "policy rate + 10bp" increased significantly in July, rising from 5% in previous months to 45% [2][13] - The central bank continued to support the capital market in July. The total capital injection through reverse repurchase, MLF, and outright reverse repurchase was 48.8 billion, with the net injection scale being the second - highest in the same period since 2018. The capital injection during the tax period was the highest in the same period since 2018, and a large - scale reverse repurchase was carried out after the unexpected tightening of capital rates on July 24 [2][14] - The rapid decline in the bill rediscount rate may indicate poor credit demand in July. Banks may use bill financing to increase credit scale, which reduces the consumption of excess reserves and benefits the capital market [3][19] - The yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit fluctuated. The R007 - DR007 spread reached a new low in the same period since 2019 [21] Group 4: Summary of August Outlook - The market's expectation for further loosening of the capital market in the future is not strong, but the capital rate in August may still maintain a stable and slightly loose pattern [4][6] - Whether the capital market will experience "secondary tightening" is crucial for the bond market. The current bond market adjustment is mainly driven by price increase expectations. If the capital follows and tightens, it will form an additional negative factor [4][32] - Historically, commodity price increases do not necessarily lead to synchronous increases in capital prices. There were cases in 2017, 2018, and 2021 where the building materials composite index rose while the capital rate remained flat or declined [4][33] - The current social financing and exchange rate situations are different from those in the first quarter. Social financing is likely to decline in the second half of the year, and the exchange rate pressure has significantly eased [5][39] - The PMI indicates that the current fundamentals are weaker than those in the first quarter. Since 2024, the capital rate has been more sensitive to fundamental changes. The recent decline in high - frequency fundamental signals suggests that there is no upward risk for the capital rate [5][43] - The net financing pressure of government bonds in August will increase slightly compared to July, but the overall liquidity gap will narrow. Assuming the central bank conducts equal - amount roll - overs of maturing monetary tools, the estimated excess reserve ratio in August will decline [44][47]

瑞霆狗（RatingDog）宣布与标普全球达成协议，获得“标普全球中国PMI”（原财新PMI）的独家冠名权，指数将正式更名为“RatingDog中国PMI”。更名后的指数将继续于每月首个工作日（制造业PMI）和第三个工作日（服务业PMI）发布。🗒️Ratingdog第一大股东为中证信用，由东吴证券、国泰君安、广发证券、安信证券等35家机构合资成立。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):中国7月标普全球制造业PMI录得49.5，预期50.4，前值50.4。(财新7月起终止对标普中国PMI的冠名)标普全球市场：中国制造业自2023年10月后第二次录得产量下降，调查企业反映新订单增速放缓，厂商相应减产。厂商反映外需疲软，新出口订单已连续4个月收缩，且较6月加剧。https://t.co/4eWCWIpcNz https://t.co/2px2vIDPvj ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In July, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - The new orders index for manufacturing was at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from last month, reflecting weakened market demand [1] - Despite the short-term slowdown, the production index remained at 50.5%, indicating expansion for three consecutive months [1] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point [4] - The construction sector experienced a slowdown, with the business activity index at 50.6%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points [4] - Service sector activity remained stable, with the business activity index at 50%, a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points [4] Group 3: Price Trends - The main raw materials purchasing price index rose to 51.5%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points, marking the first rise above the critical point since March [2] - The ex-factory price index was at 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market prices [2] Group 4: Business Expectations - Manufacturing enterprises showed optimism for future market conditions, with the production and business activity expectation index at 52.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from last month [3] - Non-manufacturing enterprises maintained a stable optimistic outlook, with the business activity expectation index at 55.8%, up 0.2 percentage points [4]