摘要 人民币汇率短期内或难破 7，尽管中美资产回报率差距缩小，但央行可 能在关键点位干预，以避免过度波动，当前中国基本面尚不支持过高人 民币汇率。 季节性结汇对人民币汇率有显著影响，年初和年底较为明显，助推短期 升值，但不会改变长期基本方向，仅加剧短期波动。 "中国版本套息交易"影响中国版块和结构表现，企业根据国内外资产回 报决策，资金回流对外资占款产生影响，并推动 M1 增速上升，央行需 关注和调控。 央行可能在关键点位干预，防止人民币过度波动，如 7.2、7.3 等点位， 避免自我强化效应，并密切监控市场，适时干预以确保稳定。 2025 年上半年人民币汇率预计难破 7，因中国尚未准备好迎接强势人民 币，且套息交易导致波动较大，央行对汇率把控严格。 长期来看，人民币国际化可能导致黄金价格大幅下跌，因强势国际货币 会削弱黄金作为避险资产的需求，但短期内不会发生显著变化。 2026 年，建议做空美债和做多铜。长期来看，美债利率最终将会上升， 而铜价在经济复苏和需求增加的背景下仍有上涨空间，铜金比是重要指 标。 Q&A 近期人民币汇率升值的原因是什么？这种升值趋势是否会持续？ 近期人民币汇率升值的主要原因包括季节 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China has revised the rules for the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), effective from February 1, 2026, requiring direct participants to maintain zero balances in their accounts and prohibiting overdrafts [1] - The Hong Kong government aims to enhance offshore RMB liquidity, improve financial infrastructure, and diversify investment products and risk management tools to promote the internationalization of the RMB [1] - Japan's cabinet has approved a preliminary budget for fiscal year 2026 totaling 122.31 trillion yen, with expectations of achieving a primary fiscal surplus for the first time in 28 years [1] Group 2 - The Central Bank of Uruguay has implemented measures to boost confidence in its currency, including increasing capital requirements for dollar loans and eliminating certain peso deposit reserve requirements [1] - Syria will initiate a currency replacement process starting January 1, 2026, with a 90-day transition period during which the old and new Syrian pounds will circulate concurrently at a conversion rate of 1:100 [1] Group 3 - The Bank of Thailand plans to strengthen scrutiny of capital inflows exceeding $200,000, citing concerns that overheated gold trading could destabilize the economy [2] - The Central Bank of Russia intends to sell foreign currency worth 102.2 billion rubles daily to maintain exchange rate stability, in addition to separate interventions by the Ministry of Finance [2] Group 4 - Tokyo's core CPI increased by 2.3% year-on-year in December, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a relief in inflationary pressures [3] - Japan's industrial output fell by 2.6% month-on-month in November, exceeding the expected decline of 2%, reflecting challenges in economic growth [4] - Japan's retail sales rose by 1% year-on-year in November, slightly above expectations, demonstrating resilience in the consumer market [5] Group 5 - In 2025, U.S. companies raised nearly $1.7 trillion through the issuance of investment-grade bonds, driven primarily by a surge in AI infrastructure investments, although this has raised concerns about potential bubbles [5] Group 6 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.04% to 4870.97 points, the S&P 500 fell by 0.03% to 6929.94 points, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.09% to 23593.1 points [6] Group 7 - COMEX gold futures rose by 1.31% to $4562.00 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 11.15% to $79.68 per ounce [7] Group 8 - The main contract for U.S. oil fell by 2.43% to $56.93 per barrel, and the main contract for Brent crude oil decreased by 2.15% [8] Group 9 - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 2.65 basis points to 3.479%, the 3-year yield fell by 2.81 basis points to 3.530%, the 5-year yield dropped by 2.24 basis points to 3.696%, the 10-year yield declined by 0.78 basis points to 4.128%, while the 30-year yield increased by 2.12 basis points to 4.816% [9] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.12% to 98.03, with the euro and pound both declining against the dollar [9]

市场概述 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 华见早安之声 周五，圣诞节后首个交易日，美股大盘在历史高位附近缩量横盘，贵金属表现"疯狂"，金银铜铂金均创历史新高。 美股三大指数微跌，罗素小盘股指跌幅靠前。恐慌指数VIX跌至14下方。特斯拉跌2.1%、领跌科技七巨头。 俄乌冲突迎来和平曙光，WTI原油较日高下挫3.7%。 要闻 2026年全国两会召开时间来了：政协3月4日，人大3月5日。 财政部：2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策，扩大财政支出盘子，继续支持消费品以旧换新。 中国11月规模以上工业企业利润同比下降13.1%，前11个月同比微增，高技术制造业利润增速加快。工业生产和利润率的下滑是利润增速收窄的 主因。 美债收益率全周基本收平。 美元轻微反弹0.08%。离岸人民币盘整于7.0整数关口附近。 加密货币冲高转跌。比特币日内一度涨破8.9万美元，随后较日高一度下挫3.2%。以太坊逼近3000美元后转跌。 黄金现货大涨逾1%，盘中刷新历史高点至4550美元上方，白银飙升10%，站上79美元。现货铂金上涨8%至每盎司2,413.62美元，创新高。COMEX铜期货 涨5.01%。 香港财 ...

接近年底，人民币汇率强势破7，创下15个月以来的新高，根据数据显示，自今年4月以来，人民币的累计甚至幅度达到了6%，打破了两年多的震荡格局， 然而也将一个问题摆在了投资者面前，是人民币更强了，还是美元更虚了？ 实际上，二者皆有，而这其中，美元更虚或占上风，美元的虚，离不开狂飙的美债。 债务规模呈现极度扩张态势：当前，美国联邦政府债务总额已突破38万亿美元关口，且其增长速率极为迅猛，而从经济行为模式来看，这类似于个人过度依 赖信用卡消费的情形——债务余额持续攀升，利息负担日益加重，而同期收入增长却近乎停滞。 更关键的是，美国实行联邦制，在此体制下，诸多州政府正通过立法举措或公开声明的方式，明确表达其不愿为联邦政府的债务问题承担连带责任的态度， 这也就意味着，当前的美国呈现出一种颇为特殊的态势：联邦政府的债务规模持续攀升，而地方政府却在竭力"厘清权责边界"。 不过对于地方政府来说，并不是不想，而是心有余而力不足，实际上，美国诸多地方政府亦已深陷严峻的财政窘境，其财政困境程度丝毫不逊色于英国—— 目前英国已有半数地方政府宣告破产。 但问题的关键在于，美元贬值的代价并非局限于美国本土，而是会向全球范围外溢，这会导致全 ...

12月28日，香港特区政府财政司司长陈茂波在随笔中表示，展望明年，香港经济可望保持良好的势头。 市场普遍预期环球经济即使动力放缓，但仍可维持温和扩张，而内地以至亚洲整体仍是主要的增长引 擎，这些都将继续为香港经济提供重要支撑。此外，市场一般预计息率下调，也有利营商及投资气氛。 人工智能将定义未来各经济体的核心竞争力、重塑全球经济格局。香港正加快培育人工智能作为香港核 心产业，并以"AI+"战略赋能传统产业升级转型。香港会从算力、算法、数据、应用开发、资金支持以 及人才培育等六个方面推动其发展。在生物医药方面，香港的优势则更为明显，香港会继续吸引更多世 界级药企和医疗科研机构落户香港，并建立"第一层审批"药械注册机制，巩固香港作为区域医疗研发中 心的地位。 事实上，香港经济已连续第三年保持增长势头，拉动经济的三头马车今年来均有良好表现。整体出口在 今年首三季表现亮眼，继续是增长的主要贡献力量。固定资本投资今年首三季上升2.5%，单计第三季 度升幅更扩大至4.3%，是四个季度以来表现最好的一季，主要是受机器、电子设备、软件及其他设备 和知识产权产品的投资大升所支持，相信与企业普遍积极自动化、数据化和数字化有关。至 ...

12月28日，香港特区政府财政司司长陈茂波发表司长随笔《昂首迈向新一年》。 2025年即将成为过去，回望这一年，我们克服了不少挑战。即使外围发展不明朗，但本地资 产市场表现仍进一步改善、资金持续流入，访港旅客人数增加，整体出口和固定资本投资表 现良好，本地消费亦趋稳，估计本港今年经济增长将加速至3.2%，略高于年初时的预测。 总的来说，出口和投资表现良好，是带动经济的主要动力，而股市和楼市「价量齐升」，也 巩固了市场的正向预期。 资产市场方面，港股表现亮丽，连续第二年上升，截至上周，恒生指数收报25,818点，较去 年底升约29%，以升幅计，将是自2017年以来表现最好的年份，在全球主要股市中表现亦名 列前茅。这升势有着活跃的成交量支撑，新股集资额按年上升超过两倍；大市交投及上市后 的后续融资额均按年增加约一倍。今年首十一个月，港股平均每日成交额接近2,600亿元。 IPO集资额高踞全球第一，截至本月中已超过2,700亿元，其中四家的上市集资额更排在今年 全球十大新股之列。同期，已上市企业后续融资额超过5,100亿港元。资产及财富管理业务 方面，今年首九个月，在香港注册成立的证监会认可基金的资金净流入超过41 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong government aims to enhance the functionality and connotation of its international financial center [1] - The government plans to strengthen its competitive edge in the financial market by attracting high-quality companies from Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and the Global South to list in Hong Kong [1] - There is a focus on diversifying the financial market by accelerating the development of fixed income and currency markets, green finance, and fintech, as well as exploring new opportunities in commodity trading and international gold transactions [1] Group 2 - The position of the Renminbi in global cross-border trade and investment is increasing, with Hong Kong being positioned as an offshore Renminbi business hub [1] - The government will support the cautious advancement of Renminbi internationalization through three main strategies: enhancing offshore Renminbi liquidity, optimizing financial infrastructure, and enriching investment products and risk management tools [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong government aims to enhance its role as an international financial center by aligning with national development strategies and expanding its financial market offerings [1] Group 1: Financial Market Development - The government plans to strengthen the competitiveness of the stock market to attract high-quality companies from Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and the Global South to list in Hong Kong [1] - There is an emphasis on diversifying the financial market by accelerating the development of fixed income and currency markets, green finance, and fintech [1] - New opportunities will be explored, including commodity trading and international gold trading [1] Group 2: RMB Internationalization - The position of the Renminbi (RMB) in global cross-border trade and investment is increasing, with Hong Kong positioned as an offshore RMB business hub [1] - The government will support the cautious advancement of RMB internationalization through three main areas: enhancing offshore RMB liquidity, optimizing financial infrastructure, and enriching investment products and risk management tools [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong SAR government aims to enhance its status as an international financial center by improving its financial market competitiveness and attracting high-quality companies from various regions to list in Hong Kong [1] Group 1: Financial Market Development - The government plans to strengthen its advantages in financial markets, particularly in the stock market, to attract companies from Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and the Global South [1] - There is an emphasis on diversifying the local financial market by accelerating the development of fixed income and currency markets, green finance, and financial technology [1] - The government is also looking to explore new opportunities in commodity trading and international gold trading [1] Group 2: Renminbi Internationalization - The position of the Renminbi in global cross-border trade and investment is increasing, and Hong Kong is positioned as an offshore Renminbi business hub [1] - The government will support the cautious advancement of Renminbi internationalization through three main strategies: enhancing offshore Renminbi liquidity, optimizing related financial infrastructure, and enriching investment products and risk management tools [1]

二级速览： 中资美元债二级市场涨跌不一，截至12月26日，Markit iBoxx中资美元债综合指数周度上行0.06%，报251.26；投资级美元债指数周度上涨0.08%， 报244.35；高收益美元债指数周度下跌0.14%，报 241.3。地产美元债指数周度涨0.12%，报178.37；城投美元债指数周度下跌0.01%，报153.9；金融 美元债指数周度下跌0.06%，报290.9。 基准利差： 截至12月26日，中美10年期基准国债利差缩小至229.47bp，较前一周缩小2.13bp。 评级异动： 近两周市场情况 一级市场： 据新华财经统计，近两周（12月15日至12月26日）共发行12笔中资离岸债券，其中包括6笔离岸人民币债券和6笔美元债券，发行规模分别为430.58 亿元人民币和2.96亿美元。近两周发行方式为直接发行的债券共9只，担保发行2只，"直接发行+担保"的1只。 在离岸人民币债券领域，近两周人民币债券单笔发行最大规模为10.5亿元人民币，由南安市发展投资集团有限公司发行。近两周人民币债券发行最 高票息为6.9%，由淄博高新国有资本投资有限公司发行。 在中资美元债券市场，近两周美元债券单笔最大 ...