Employment Data Summary - In July 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, significantly below the expected 110,000, and the previous value was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000[1][11]. - The unemployment rate in July 2025 was 4.2%, matching expectations but up from the previous 4.1%[1][14]. - Average hourly earnings rose by 3.9% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.8% and revised from a previous increase of 3.7%[1][14]. Data Revision Insights - The June non-farm payrolls were revised down by a total of 258,000, with significant downward adjustments in government, leisure, and construction sectors, accounting for 90,000 of the total revision[2][12]. - The downward revision reflects the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy, indicating a decline in the accuracy of the "birth-death model" used for employment predictions[2][5]. Sector Performance - In July, the financial activities, education, and healthcare sectors added 15,000, 79,000, and 16,000 jobs respectively, showing stability in service sector demand[3][27]. - The goods-producing sector continued to show negative job growth for three consecutive months, indicating weak production intentions among businesses[3][28]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate fell to 62.2% in July, down from 62.3% in June, with a notable decline in employment willingness among younger demographics[4][35]. - The number of unemployed individuals increased by 221,000 in July, contributing to the rise in the U3 unemployment rate to 4.2%[4][35]. Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate rate cuts, with market predictions indicating three rate cuts in 2025, starting in September with an 83.4% probability[5][26]. - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with the second quarter GDP growth at 3.0%, driven by a "import rush" effect, but core GDP growth showing signs of decline[5][23].

魔术师幻想操控"关税帽子"，终遭魔咒反噬。帽子沉重落下，砸在美国民众脚边——六月通胀意外飙升，创数月最大涨幅，灼 痛日常生活。这场损人害己的戏法，终以狼狈收场。当虚假魔棒失灵，山姆大叔还剩什么真实力量？ （文章来源：中国新闻网） 国际社会早已洞穿"魔术"真相。各国看清其极限施压是虚张声势，所谓经贸外交实为赤裸裸的讹诈。"不可预判"的美国，其"不 可信任"的烙印深植人心，昔日山姆大叔挥舞魔棒号令天下的幻象，如今只剩国际信誉加速崩塌的漫天烟尘。 近日，美国政府再挥"魔术棒"，向20多国及欧盟发出8月1日加征关税的"最后通牒"，胁迫各国戴上"关税帽子"。自四月"对等关 税"开锣，这场关税"魔术秀"充满矛盾与荒诞，主演者的反复无常已成唯一"定式"。 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京8月2日电 美国劳工局最新公布的7月非农就业报告远低于预期，再加上美联储理事辞职的消息，投资者纷纷重新评估美联 储9月份息的可能性，一时间避险资金大量涌入，除1个月和2个月短债外，其余美债收益率均在周五（8月1日）出现暴跌行情。 据美国财政部数据，截至当天收盘，2年期美债收益率暴跌25BPs至3.698%，这是自2024年8月2日以来的最大单日跌幅；10年期美债收益 率下跌14BPs至4.236%，30年期美债收益率回落8BPs至4.837%。2年期美债与10年期美债收益率利差走阔9BPs至54BPs。 盘后数据显示，在一天之内，短期短期债券收益率就抹去了7月份以来的所有涨幅。 Pivotus Partners首席市场策略师理查德•法尔表示，债券收益率下跌和经济数据持续恶化，突显出他所称的股市高企估值与实际情况之间 越来越脱节的现象。 数据公布前，美债收益率在周五盘前曾全线上扬，其中2年期美债收益率涨0.2BP至3.953%，10年期美债收益率涨3BPs至4.39%，30年期 国债收益率涨3.6BPs至4.921%。而在7月非农就业数据弱于预期、5月和6月数据被大幅下调后，美债收益 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts remains uncertain, with Chairman Powell considering the legacy of his policies and the balance between tight and loose monetary policy [1][17]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain its policy rate, citing that inflation is slightly above target and the job market remains strong, with an unemployment rate of 4.1% [4][6]. - There were two dissenting votes in the recent meeting, marking the first occurrence since 1993, indicating differing views on the necessity of rate cuts [1][4]. - Powell emphasized that the current monetary policy is slightly restrictive, and future decisions will depend on upcoming inflation and employment data [4][7]. Group 2: Tariff Impact - Recent government tariffs have generated significant revenue, with monthly collections reaching $30 billion, but the impact on consumer prices is still being assessed [5][11]. - The Fed is adopting a "wait and see" approach regarding the impact of tariffs on core consumer prices, aiming to prevent temporary price increases from becoming persistent inflation [5][8]. - Powell noted that the effects of tariffs on prices may take time to materialize, and the Fed is focused on ensuring that any price impacts do not lead to sustained inflation [5][11]. Group 3: Employment and Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy showed a GDP growth of 1.2% in the first half of the year, a decline from the previous year's 2.5%, while the job market remains stable with low unemployment [9][10]. - There is a concern that the balance between job demand and supply is weakening, which could indicate underlying risks in the employment market [10][11]. - The Fed's dual mandate focuses on achieving full employment and price stability, rather than solely on economic growth [9][10]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Independence - Powell reiterated the importance of the Fed's independence from political pressures, especially in light of recent calls from President Trump for rate cuts [15][16]. - The Fed aims to focus on economic data and risk assessments rather than political influences, which is crucial for maintaining credibility in monetary policy [15][16]. - The independence of the Fed is seen as vital for effective economic governance, ensuring that monetary decisions are made based on economic conditions rather than political motivations [15][16].

Group 1 - European stock indices experienced a decline due to concerns over tariffs impacting global economic growth, with the FTSE 100 down 0.70%, CAC 40 down 2.91%, and DAX down 2.66% [3] - International oil prices fell on Friday influenced by potential production increases from OPEC and its allies, with light crude oil futures down 2.79% and Brent crude down 2.83% [6] - Despite the drop on Friday, U.S. oil prices saw a cumulative increase of 3.33% for the week, while Brent oil rose by 1.80% [6] Group 2 - International gold prices rose over 1% on Friday, driven by disappointing U.S. employment data and increased market demand for safe-haven assets, closing at $3,399.80 per ounce, a 1.53% increase [9] - For the week, international gold prices accumulated a rise of 1.92% [9]

YouGov调查：多数美国人认为关税损害美国消费者；只有22%的人归咎于外国制造商。 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000 jobs last month, falling short of the expected increase of 104,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% [3] - The employment growth for the previous two months was significantly revised downwards, causing surprise among analysts [3] - Employment growth has been concentrated in previously understaffed sectors such as healthcare and social assistance, with a steady decline in the breadth of job creation in recent months [3] Stock Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices fell sharply, with the Dow Jones down 542.40 points (1.23%) to 43,588.58, the Nasdaq down 2.24% to 20,650.13, and the S&P 500 down 1.60% to 6,238.01 [1] - Amazon's stock dropped by 8.3% due to lower-than-expected revenue guidance for the third quarter [5] - Other major tech stocks also performed poorly, with Apple down 2.5%, Nvidia down 2.3%, and Tesla and Microsoft down 1.8% [6] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply, with the two-year yield dropping by 26.5 basis points to 3.7% and the ten-year yield down by 15.1 basis points to 4.22% [4] - The probability of a rate cut in September surged to over 80% according to the FedWatch tool [4] Consumer Sentiment - The University of Michigan's survey indicated that U.S. consumer confidence rose for the second consecutive month in July, although overall market sentiment remains negative [3] Commodity Market - Gold prices surged due to increased risk aversion, with October contracts surpassing $3,400, marking a 2.02% increase [8] - Oil prices were pressured by economic uncertainty and OPEC+ production increase expectations, with WTI crude down 2.79% to $67.33 per barrel and Brent crude down 2.83% to $69.67 per barrel [7]

铜价刚刚经历了有史以来最惨烈的一天。但美国经济疲软再加上大宗商品历史价格走势，这意味着铜价 或许还有进一步下跌的空间。 "商品在高点之后出现剧烈回调是非常普遍的现象。"McGlone指出，"铜在突破5美元之后，为何不能回 到3美元？近二十年来，这个金属的价格大多围绕3美元震荡。" Britannia Global Markets金属主管Neil Welsh表示："这一转变有望为铜市场重新注入一定的确定性，让 市场重新聚焦于基本面，而不是此前以新闻标题为导向的短期交易行为。" 不过，即便市场回归基本面，铜的基本面也显得岌岌可危。尽管铜价近期因电力需求增长而受到提振， 铜仍是最具经济敏感性的商品之一，其走势与中美经济增长前景高度挂钩。 本周早些时候，美联储选择维持利率不变。但在周五就业数据远逊预期后，市场对于9月降息的预期急 剧升温。 从历史价格走势来看，铜价目前的飙升也引发了一些不安。彭博高级商品策略师Mike McGlone指出， 美铜近期走势颇似2008年金融危机前夕的原油。当时原油价格因经济错位快速升至147美元的历史高 位，随后却因房市泡沫破裂跌至32美元。如今油价仍徘徊在68美元左右，仅为当年高点的一 ...

Core Insights - Amazon's shares fell by 8.3% amid broader market declines, despite beating Wall Street expectations in Q2 financials [1][2] - The company's Q2 earnings were $1.68 per share on $167.70 billion in sales, surpassing the expected $1.33 per share on $162.09 billion [2] - Amazon Web Services (AWS) experienced 18% year-over-year growth, which is significantly lower than competitors like Microsoft Azure (39%) and Google Cloud (32%) [3] - New tariffs signed by President Trump, ranging from 10% to 41%, have negatively impacted Amazon's stock due to its reliance on international trade [5] - Despite challenges, Amazon remains highly profitable with substantial growth potential [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a low impact from Trump's tariffs on its business operations [1] Group 1 - The company assesses that the tariffs will not significantly affect its overall performance [1] - The management believes that the current market conditions and demand will mitigate potential negative effects from the tariffs [1]