有多少人到现在还以为：美国国债，依旧是"天下最安全的资产"？ 2月，有美国金融界人士公开鼓吹，要靠一项"终极方案"破解当前的债务困局——让美元主动贬值300%，一次性抹去所有美债，彻底摆脱债务枷锁。 没人能确定这只是极端言论，还是美国暗中酝酿的计划，毕竟当下的美国，早已被堆积如山的国债逼到了绝境。 截至2026年2月，美国国债总额已飙升至38.5万亿美元，远超其2024年29.18万亿美元的国内生产总值，债务占GDP比重突破126%，创下历史新高。 这一数字的增长速度，比过去25年的平均增速快了一倍还多，每增加1万亿美元债务的周期，已经缩短到5个月。 2025年7月，美国政府签署相关法案，新增近5万亿美元的发债空间，这一操作看似缓解了短期压力，实则进一步推高债务规模，动摇了全球市场对美债的信 心。 三大国际评级机构早已相继剥夺美国的3A评级，美债的信用根基正在加速崩塌。 在常规手段失灵的情况下，"美元主动贬值300%"的极端构想被搬上台面。 按照这一构想，美国通过大量印钞、放弃汇率管控等方式，让美元兑全球主要货币大幅贬值，最终实现"债务清零"——用大幅贬值后的"废纸美元"，偿还此 前发行的所有美债。 债务的压 ...

2026年春节前，黄金市场出现了一个让所有人纠结的现象：国际金价在5060美元上下晃悠，国内基础金价死死钉 在1120元/克上方，而周大福、老庙黄金这些金店里的首饰，标价已经稳稳站在了1550元到1560元一克。 一边是价 格横在那里几天不动，另一边是朋友圈、微信群里每天刷屏问"还能不能再等等？ 会不会跌？ "。 这种高位横盘 的行情，把很多想买金过年、结婚、送礼的人，心都磨得够呛。 2026年2月12日，农历腊月二十五，距离春节只剩几天。 如果你走进任何一家品牌金店，会发现价格牌上的数字 依然坚挺。 老庙黄金的足金报价是1562元/克，比前一天还微涨了0.77%。 周生生报1556元/克，周大福、老凤 祥、周大生这些主流品牌，价格都锁在1550元/克左右。 和这些"一线品牌"形成鲜明对比的，是像菜百首饰这样的 店铺，报价1528元/克，太阳金店和百泰黄金的价格则在1449到1452元/克之间。 光是品牌之间的价差，最高就能 达到113元一克。 这意味着，同样是买一个30克的金手镯，在不同品牌的柜台前，你最终要付的钱可能相差超过3000块。 但如果你 转身走进工商银行或者建设银行，情况又完全不同。 工行的"如 ...

地缘政治风险从短期扰动变成了长期定价因素。 美伊冲突、中东局势、俄乌战争，这些事件不再引发金价的短线 波动后迅速回落，而是持续推高金价的定价中枢。 2026年1月，美国与伊朗、格陵兰岛及部分欧洲地区地缘政治 紧张升级，持续激发投资者对黄金的兴趣。 反过来，只要一有和谈消息，比如美委突然说要坐下来谈，金价当天 就可能下跌5.68%。 这说明当前价格很虚，靠的是"万一出事"的预期，而不是"已经出事"的事实。 金价冲上4985美元，不是牛市，而是全球美元信用体系松动的警报。 2026年2月13日，国际金价在剧烈震荡中触 及4985美元，随后又回落至4950美元附近徘徊。 这种价格走势与历史上任何一次黄金牛市都截然不同。 一个月前 的1月29日，金价曾飙升至每盎司5598.75美元的历史巅峰，但随后三天内直线下挫，最低探至4402.06美元，跌幅 超过21%。 市场像坐上了过山车，而驱动它的，不再是简单的供需关系。 价格的剧烈波动成了常态。 2026年1月，伦敦金现价格单月上涨了13.01%，首次站上5000美元大关。 但这种飙升 伴随着极端的日内震荡。 1月30日，伦敦金现遭遇了40年来最大单日跌幅，下跌超过9.2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Chifeng Gold's stock price is primarily attributed to significant fluctuations in international gold prices and the outflow of leveraged funds, despite the company's strong fundamental performance and growth prospects [2][3][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of February 13, 2026, Chifeng Gold's stock closed at 37.30 yuan, down 2.48%, with a trading volume of 1.852 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 2.95% [1]. - Over the past five trading days, the stock has increased by 0.78%, but it has risen by 15.48% over the last twenty trading days, while the precious metals sector has declined by 2.63% and the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 1.26% [1]. - The stock experienced a trading range on February 13, with a high of 38.23 yuan and a low of 37.25 yuan, resulting in a volatility of 2.56% [1]. Group 2: Market Influences - On February 12, 2026 (Eastern Time), spot gold prices fell by 3.26% to $4918.36 per ounce, while silver plummeted by 10.89%, driven by algorithmic trading and forced liquidation by investors to meet liquidity needs [2]. - As of February 13, 2026, Chifeng Gold's financing balance has decreased for five consecutive days, totaling a reduction of 210 million yuan, a decline of 9.71%, indicating heightened risk aversion among leveraged investors [2]. - The stock price fell below the 20-day moving average of 39.25 yuan on February 13, with the MACD histogram dropping to -1.266 and the KDJ indicator J line at 48.39, suggesting weak short-term technical indicators [2]. Group 3: Company Fundamentals - Chifeng Gold reported a 140.98% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the third quarter of 2025, with a total net profit of 2.058 billion yuan for the first three quarters, reflecting an 86.21% increase [3]. - The company's revenue grew by 38.91% year-on-year, benefiting from rising gold prices [3]. - Long-term outlook remains positive, with institutions like BNP Paribas citing geopolitical risks, central bank gold purchases, and de-dollarization trends as supportive of long-term gold price increases, with some target prices reaching $6000 per ounce [3]. - Financial structure has improved, with cash and cash equivalents rising to 4.995 billion yuan and total liabilities decreasing to 7.946 billion yuan by the end of the third quarter of 2025, alongside a net cash flow from operating activities of 3.036 billion yuan, up 51.54% year-on-year [3]. Group 4: Event Impact - The recent stock price decline is mainly influenced by short-term external market volatility and funding behaviors, characterized as a "risk-off" scenario driven by algorithmic trading sell-offs [4]. - Domestic gold stocks closely follow international gold price movements, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au(T+D) reaching a high of 1136.5 yuan per gram on February 13, before retreating alongside international market corrections [4].

（来源：中国宁波网） 转自：中国宁波网 黄金、白银强劲反弹。 当地时间2月13日，现货黄金涨2.39%，重回5000美元上方，报5042.205美元/盎司，今年以来涨 16.76%；现货白银涨2.81%，报77.338美元/盎司，今年以来涨8.05%。 国际贵金属期货周五同样普遍收涨，Wind数据显示，COMEX黄金期货涨2.33%，报5063.80美元/盎司， 本周累计上涨1.51%；COMEX白银期货，涨2.10%报77.27美元/盎司，本周累计下跌0.33%。黄金价格在 经历史诗级暴跌后，已连续第二周价格回升，但白银价格仍在持续下行。 高盛资产管理公司多行业固定收益投资主管Lindsay Rosner表示，鉴于美国1月CPI数据并未如担忧那般 强劲，美联储的"正常化"降息路径似乎更加清晰。这将取决于就业市场是否继续呈现改善迹象，因为美 联储对劳动力市场疲软的敏感度很高，预期美联储今年将降息两次，下一次降息或将在今年6月份进 行。 此外，地缘政治方面的局势演变也支撑了贵金属资产吸引力。据央视新闻报道，当地时间2月13日，美 国总统特朗普证实，美军将向中东地区派出第二个航空母舰打击群，以此施压伊朗同美国达成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has stabilized as prices have stopped declining after a significant drop, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1][3][6]. Domestic Gold Prices - The domestic base gold price is approximately 1123 CNY per gram, with bank investment gold bars priced between 1136 CNY and 1141 CNY per gram [1][3]. - Brand jewelry stores like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang are selling gold jewelry at prices ranging from 1550 CNY to 1560 CNY per gram [1][4][6]. - The gold buyback price from dealers is around 1088 CNY per gram, indicating a significant loss for consumers when selling back [1][6]. International Gold Prices - International spot gold prices are fluctuating between 5056 USD and 5095 USD per ounce, with COMEX futures around 5105 USD [3][7]. - Gold prices have rebounded from a low of over 4400 USD after a drop from 5600 USD at the end of January, reflecting reduced panic in the market [3][7]. Market Dynamics - The stabilization in gold prices is attributed to technical recovery needs after a sharp decline and strong U.S. employment data that altered interest rate expectations [6][7]. - Central banks continue to purchase gold, with China's central bank increasing reserves by 40,000 ounces in January 2026, marking the 15th consecutive month of increases [7][9]. Price Predictions - Various institutions have differing views on future gold prices, with optimistic forecasts suggesting prices could reach 6000 USD by the end of 2026, while cautious predictions suggest a range of 4800 USD to 5200 USD [9][10]. - The World Gold Council indicates that 95% of surveyed central banks expect to continue increasing gold reserves, highlighting a structural shift in asset allocation [18]. Consumer Behavior - For consumers purchasing gold for jewelry, the high prices are less of a concern due to the intrinsic value of the items, while investment buyers are advised to consider different tools like bank gold bars or ETFs [10][12]. - The gold recovery market is complex, with consumers advised to be cautious of misleading offers and to ensure proper verification of gold purity [13]. Market Risks - The volatility in the gold market is significant, with recent fluctuations prompting increased margin requirements from exchanges to mitigate risks [16][19]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains a critical factor influencing gold prices, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts in 2026 [19][21].

野村证券国际美国利率策略主管Jonathan Cohn表示，通胀数据带来的积极反应受到就业市场持续改善前景的限制，因为这削弱了美联储进 一步降息的必要性。 "这再次表明，美联储更敏感的仍是就业这一政策目标。"Cohn还提到，"我认为，本周我们看到金融市场上的一部分重新定价（抛售），其 实更多是风险情绪转弱，而不是经济数据本身所致。" 高盛资产管理公司多行业固定收益投资主管Lindsay Rosner表示，鉴于美国1月CPI数据并未如担忧那般强劲，美联储的"正常化"降息路径似 乎更加清晰。这将取决于就业市场是否继续呈现改善迹象，因为美联储对劳动力市场疲软的敏感度很高，预期美联储今年将降息两次，下 一次降息或将在今年6月份进行。 此外，地缘政治方面的局势演变也支撑了贵金属资产吸引力。据央视新闻报道，当地时间2月13日，美国总统特朗普证实，美军将向中东地 区派出第二个航空母舰打击群，以此施压伊朗同美国达成协议。 黄金、白银强劲反弹。 当地时间2月13日，现货黄金涨2.39%，重回5000美元上方，报5042.205美元/盎司，今年以来涨16.76%；现货白银涨2.81%，报77.338美元/ 盎司，今年以来涨8.0 ...

回顾近期美元指数走势，2026年伊始，美元便陷入持续弱势格局，整体呈现"震荡下行、小幅反弹"的波动特征。从摘要6的历史行情数据来看，美元指数主 连从1月初的98.170逐步震荡走低，1月27日单日大跌1.282个基点，跌至95.575的近期低位;随后虽有小幅反弹，1月30日收于97.030.但反弹力度微弱，未能改 变整体弱势格局。1月29日，受特朗普关于美元的表态影响，美元指数单日下跌1.3%，录得2025年4月以来最大单日跌幅，跌至近四年来最低水平，进一步 奠定了年内弱势基调。进入2月以来，美元指数维持在96.5-97.2区间窄幅震荡，多空双方陷入僵持，而2月14日的微跌，正是这种僵持格局的延续，也是市场 对美联储降息预期逐步升温的直接反应。 2026年2月14日，全球外汇市场整体呈现温和震荡态势，衡量美元对六种主要货币汇率强弱的美元指数小幅走低，延续了近期的弱势格局，成为当日汇市的 核心看点。截至纽约汇市尾市，美元指数微跌0.01%，收于96.922.日内最高触及96.985.最低下探至96.871.波动幅度仅0.114个基点，交投活跃度较前一交易日 有所回落，成交量约2.8万手，持仓量维持在3.3万手附 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the evolution of the international monetary order and the opportunities it presents for China, as articulated by Dr. Miao Yanliang, a senior strategist at CICC [2][12]. Research Origin - The interest in the international monetary system began in 2005 during a class at Princeton University, where Dr. Miao was encouraged by Professor Peter Kenen, a leading expert in the field [4]. - Dr. Miao's career has been centered around the international monetary order, having worked at the International Monetary Fund and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange [4]. Research Development - In early 2023, Dr. Miao completed a book titled "The Game of Confidence: Modern Central Banks and Macroeconomics," which received positive feedback, prompting him to consider writing another book titled "The Order of Money" [5]. - The rapid changes in the global landscape, including the AI revolution and shifts in U.S. trade policy, have created a unique opportunity for research on the international monetary order [5][14]. Key Observations - In June 2025, Dr. Miao presented at a strategy meeting, stating that the forces driving the reconstruction of the international monetary order are significantly stronger than the basic fundamentals of any single country or market [6]. - He noted that the restructuring is moving towards fragmentation and diversification, with capital returning to its home countries, as evidenced by the decline in Chinese holdings of U.S. stocks from $383 billion to $329 billion [7]. Research Methodology - Dr. Miao's insights are based on extensive research and validation through interactions with central banks and investment institutions, including participation in high-level conferences [9][10]. - He emphasizes the importance of cross-verifying perspectives from academic, market, and policy viewpoints to strengthen his research conclusions [11]. Conclusion on Currency Competition - The article concludes that the highest form of competition among nations is currency competition, which relies on trust supported by economic, financial, institutional, and technological factors [13]. - The article highlights the significance of advancing the internationalization of the Renminbi, especially during strategic windows of opportunity [14][16]. Research Series Overview - The article lists a series of research reports focusing on various aspects of the international monetary system, including the role of the Renminbi, the dynamics of gold pricing, and the implications of de-dollarization [20].

当地时间2月13日，美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道琼斯工业指数涨0.1%报49500.93点，标普500指数涨 0.05%报6836.17点，纳斯达克指数跌0.22%报22546.67点。本周，道琼斯工业指数跌1.23%，标普500指 数跌1.39%，纳斯达克指数跌2.1%。 美国CPI数据公布后，市场对美联储降息的概率预期上升，美元指数回落，支撑贵金属资产吸引力。 COMEX黄金期货涨2.33%报5063.80美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨2.10%报77.27美元/盎司。 欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一，德国DAX指数涨0.25%报24914.88点，法国CAC40指数跌0.35%报8311.74 点，英国富时100指数涨0.42%报10446.35点。本周，德国DAX指数涨0.78%，法国CAC40指数涨 0.46%，英国富时100指数涨0.74%。 中概股涨跌不一，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌0.10%，万得中概科技龙头指数涨0.15%。热门中概股方 面，再鼎医药涨超6%，腾讯音乐涨逾4%，百胜中国涨超3%，涂鸦智能涨逾2%，禾赛科技涨超2%，网 易涨逾2%。跌幅方面，晶科能源跌近3%，阿特斯太阳能跌超2%，金山 ...