智通财经APP获悉，据分析人士透露，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普正考虑对那些与其收购格陵兰岛计划相 关的欧洲国家加征10%的关税。这一动向加剧了美国政策走向的不确定性，受此影响，彭博美元现货指 数在亚洲交易时段下滑0.1%，铜价也因此重拾上涨态势。 与此同时，欧洲货币获得一定支撑，其中，在避险资产需求上升的推动下，瑞士法郎的表现优于其他十 国集团货币，欧元也从近两个月来的最低点反弹回升。 戴维·福雷斯特(David Forrester)，法国农业信贷银行(Credit Agricole CIB)驻新加坡高级策略师表示，特 朗普的关税威胁再度引发了"抛售美元"的交易。市场还将关注"TACO交易"，因为特朗普可能将关税威 胁作为谈判策略。这将为美元提供一些支撑。 在特朗普2026年的总统任期内，欧元将成为不断加剧的地缘政治风险的最大输家之一。关税可能会给欧 元区经济带来周期性逆风，并进一步削弱对俄罗斯结束在乌克兰战争的压力。 克里斯·韦斯顿(Chris Weston)，Pepperstone集团有限公司研究部主管则称，市场动态表明，包括美元在 内的美国资产如今的政治风险溢价大幅上升。这将迫使外国投资者减少或降低对美国资 ...

贝森特在全国广播公司（NBC）《与媒体见面》节目中指出，在地缘政治棋局里，取得格陵兰岛的控 制权具有关键意义。就在前一天，美国总统特朗普誓言要对反对美国收购格陵兰岛的欧盟成员国加征关 税，其中就包括长期以来一直是美国最坚定盟友之一的丹麦。 美国财政部长斯科特・贝森特（Scott Bessent）于上周日表示，欧洲的"软弱"使得美国掌控格陵兰岛对 全球稳定而言至关重要。与此同时，部分美国议员正对特朗普政府试图收购这块丹麦所属北极领土的举 动发出警告。 "我们是全球最强大的国家，"贝森特称，"欧洲展现的是软弱，而美国展现的是力量。" 随着美国与欧盟的紧张局势在上周日不断升级，贝森特表示，他相信欧洲领导人最终会"接受"美国掌控 格陵兰岛的提议。"我认为欧洲人会明白，这一安排对格陵兰岛最有利、对欧洲最有利，同时也对美国 最有利。" 这位美国财长称，他最近没有与特朗普讨论过是否仍在考虑动用紧急权力以武力夺取格陵兰岛。但肯塔 基州共和党籍参议员、美国参议院国土安全委员会主席兰德・保罗（Rand Paul）认为，采取这种做 法"荒诞至极"，因为格陵兰岛根本不存在所谓的紧急状态。 "财政部长声称这么做是为了防范紧急状态的发生 ...

Core Insights - The global official gold reserves reached approximately $3.69 trillion by the end of Q3 2025, accounting for 28.9% of total official reserves, marking the highest level since 2000 [4][20][12] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves fell to 56.92%, the lowest since 1995, continuing a trend of being below 60% for over ten consecutive quarters [7][20] - China's central bank has been actively increasing its gold reserves, with a total of 7.415 million ounces (approximately 2306.32 tons) as of the end of December 2025, marking the 14th consecutive month of gold accumulation [3][10] Global Gold Reserve Trends - Global central banks have been net buyers of gold for 15 consecutive years, with significant purchases recorded in 2022 (1081.9 tons), 2023 (1050.8 tons), and 2024 (1044.6 tons) [5][14] - Emerging market central banks, particularly from Turkey and China, have been the primary drivers of gold purchases, with Turkey buying 148 tons in 2022 and China leading in 2023 with 225 tons [5][16] - The total gold purchases by central banks in the first three quarters of 2025 amounted to 634 tons, indicating a strong demand despite a slight decrease compared to previous years [6][15] Shifts in Reserve Asset Composition - The increasing share of gold in global reserves reflects a strategic shift among central banks towards diversifying away from dollar-denominated assets, driven by geopolitical tensions and the need for risk management [7][19] - The World Gold Council's survey indicated that over 90% of central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in 2026, with more than 70% anticipating a decline in the dollar's share of global reserves over the next five years [27][28] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The gold market is expected to remain robust, with predictions of continued price increases due to central bank purchases and macroeconomic factors such as U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical risks [8][28] - Analysts forecast that central bank gold purchases will remain a long-term trend, with expectations of around 755 tons in 2026, despite a decrease from the peak levels seen in 2022-2024 [28][33] - The potential for gold price volatility exists, particularly if retail investor behavior shifts, but central bank demand is expected to provide a stabilizing influence on the market [30][32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical tensions have intensified due to the Trump administration's threat of military action against Iran, and the expectation of Hassett becoming the Fed Chair has changed, causing precious metal prices to remain strong. The Fed held its December FOMC meeting, cutting interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and initiating a reserve management - style balance - sheet expansion. The US employment situation has slowed down, and Powell stated that changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut rates. With the expected change in Hassett's appointment, the market anticipates fewer rate cuts this year. US economic data has shown a downward trend, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization trends remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are expected to rise. The lease rates of platinum and palladium remain high, and their prices are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the US November PCE data to be released on Thursday [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Gold: Due to the Trump administration's threat of military action against Iran, geopolitical tensions have risen, and the expectation of Hassett becoming the Fed Chair has changed. Gold prices have shown a strong - side oscillation. As of last Friday, COMEX gold closed at $4,601 per ounce, up 1.8% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4,650, and the lower support level is $4,500 [6]. - Silver: Due to the same factors and the continued shortage of silver spot, silver prices have risen strongly. As of last Friday, the weekly gain was 12.7%, closing at $90 per ounce. The lower support level is $87, and the upper resistance level is $95 [9]. 3.2 Weekly View - Precious metal prices will continue to be strong. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in December and started balance - sheet expansion. The US employment situation is weakening, and the expected change in Hassett's appointment has led to a decrease in the expected number of rate cuts this year. US economic data is deteriorating, and there are concerns about the fiscal situation and Fed independence. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization trends remain. Silver spot is in short supply, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are expected to rise. Platinum and palladium prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the US November PCE data on Thursday [11]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - Economic data: The US December CPI annual rate (unadjusted) was 2.7%, in line with expectations and the previous value; the US November PPI annual rate was 3%, higher than the expected 2.7% and the previous value of 2.7%; the US November retail sales monthly rate was 0.6%, higher than the expected 0.4% and the previous value of 0; the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending January 10 was 1.98 million, lower than the expected 2.15 million and the previous value of 2.08 million [23]. 3.4 Current Week's Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies - Kansas City Fed President Schmid opposed rate cuts, stating that inflation is "overheating" and that Trump's policies will boost economic momentum, putting upward pressure on prices. He saw little reason for further rate cuts and emphasized the Fed's independence. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US unexpectedly decreased last week, possibly due to challenges in seasonal adjustment. The number decreased by 9,000 to 1.98 million, lower than the expected 2.15 million. - President Trump hesitated to nominate Kevin Hassett as the Fed Chair, hoping he would continue as a White House advisor, increasing the uncertainty of finding the next Fed Chair [24]. 3.5 Inventory - Gold: COMEX inventory decreased by 5,474.74 kg to 1,123,953 kg this week, while SHFE inventory increased by 2,400 kg to 100,053 kg. - Silver: COMEX inventory decreased by 329,201.37 kg to 13,348,267.37 kg, while SHFE inventory increased by 6,581 kg to 626,843 kg [13]. 3.6 Fund Holdings - As of January 13, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 230,463 contracts, an increase of 16,720 contracts from last week. - The net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 30,625 contracts, an increase of 2,093 contracts from last week [13]. 3.7 This Week's Focus - On Thursday, January 22, at 23:00, the US November PCE price index annual rate will be released. - On Friday, January 23, at 22:45, the preliminary value of the US January SPGI manufacturing PMI will be released [35].

在您继续阅读这篇文章之前，麻烦您先点击一下关注，这样不仅能方便您参与讨论和分享，还能带给您不一样的参与感。感谢您的支持！编辑：[太阳]中国 近年来大刀阔斧地减持美债，其持仓量已经下降至6826亿美元，创下自2008年以来的历史新低。这背后的意义远非偶然，它与中国黄金储备的暴涨相呼应， 构成了清晰的去美元化路线图。当全球最大债主开始清仓，美元霸权的根基也在悄然震荡。 美国财政部数据显示，2023年11月，中国减持了61亿美元美债，现持有美债总额已降至6826亿美元。这一数字意味着自2008年金融危机以来，中国的美债持 仓已经达到了18年来的最低水平。简单来说，过去十几年间，中国持有美债的规模几乎已经减半，而且这一趋势还在持续。如此大的变化，显然并非偶然， 而是一个长时间累积的过程。 回顾一下中国美债的持有历史，2000年代初期，中国曾是美国最大的债主，最多时持有超过1.3万亿美元美债。那个时期，美国不断加大发债规模，中国也 大规模购买美债，全球美元体系一度显得如铁打般稳固。然而，时至今日，十多年过去，中国对美债的持仓几乎已经腰斩，并且持续减持。这不仅仅是短期 的情绪反应，而是一个长期的趋势变化。 同时，另一组数 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced fluctuations last week, initially rising due to escalating U.S.-Iran relations and increasing interest rate cut expectations, reaching a high of $4,650 before dropping to $4,539 as tensions eased [1] - COMEX gold futures closed the week up 2.23% at $4,601.1 per ounce, while the Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) rose 2.73% and the Gold Stock ETF (159562) increased by 6.42% [1] - President Trump indicated that Iran has committed to stopping violence, leading to a significant reduction in risk premiums associated with geopolitical tensions, which had previously driven gold and silver prices higher [1] Group 2 - Analysis suggests that the global dollar reserve ratio continued to decline in Q2, and the U.S. fiscal deficit is growing, indicating a trend towards de-dollarization that benefits gold's monetary attributes [2] - It is expected that real interest rates will continue to decline by 2026, providing further medium-term support for gold [2] - Domestic demand for physical gold may be significantly impacted by new tax policies, and a potential decline in gold jewelry demand by 2026 needs to be monitored, particularly regarding central bank purchases and investment demand [2]

2026年开年以来，有色金属板块持续活跃。今日早盘，有色矿业指数(931892)探底回升，现货黄金涨破 4690美元/盎司，续创新高。在全球流动性宽松、国内政策加码、新兴需求爆发的多重共振下，有色金 属赛道正迎来黄金投资窗口。 宏观层面，美联储2025年三次降息后，2026年宽松预期延续，弱美元环境降低大宗商品持有成本，利好 有色金属板块。 国内层面，八部门《有色金属行业稳增长工作方案》明确加强锂、镍等资源勘查，推动再生金属产能突 破，为行业发展提供政策支撑。 西部证券表示有色金属行业迎多重机遇，全球流动性宽松支撑价格，AI、高端装备制造加速需求增 长，地缘安全溢价推动商品价格重估，我国收储计划强化资源品战略价值，贵金属呈易涨难跌特征。 西部证券指出，当前大宗商品和有色金属的底层逻辑是交易美联储QE。在康波萧条期，大宗商品超级 周期的底层逻辑是交易美元信用裂痕，也就是泛滥的美元流动性会更加泛滥。2026年，美联储QE会导 致美元流动性加速泛滥，强化康波萧条期的商品超级周期，具有货币属性和安全属性的金、银、铜、锂 将得到系统性重估。有色金属的核心逻辑在于全球再工业化与去美元化叙事下，康波的年轮指引大宗商 品"走 ...

在全球经济的舞台上，中国和美国犹如两位巨人，时而互相合作，时而针锋相对。在这样的背景之下，最近中国减持美国国债的决策引发了不少关注，成为 了当下国际金融市场的热点。这一举动不仅是单纯的经济行为，更是中美关系、全球风险及未来战略博弈的一部分。 按理说，作为世界第二大经济体和美国国债的最大持有国，中国减持美债似乎是一项出乎意料的举动。根据数据显示，中国于去年11月的美债持有量降至 6826亿美元，创下自2008年以来的最低水平，减少幅度为61亿美元。而与此同时，美国国债的外资总持有额却达到9.36万亿美元的历史新高，显现出大多数 国家依然选择拥抱美债的趋势。那么，为何中国会在此时选择减持？ 首先，我们必须关注到的是中美之间不断升级的经济和地缘政治摩擦。当前美国的财政赤字已经触及到了一个危险的边缘。摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙 的警告尤为刺耳：美国的财政状况已经不再乐观，2025年，单是国债利息支出就将达到2760亿美元，而2026财年的赤字将高达2万亿美元。面对如此巨大的 财政压力，继续持有美债，尤其是大量持有，显然不是明智之举。中国显然意识到了这一点，随之作出了"战略撤退"的判断。 我们正站在一个新的历史交汇点 ...

中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF（517400）。 1月19日，黄金基金ETF（518800）涨超1%，资金面看，近10日资金净流入超14亿元，地缘冲突持续， 黄金投资价值凸显 华西证券表示，地缘冲突持续，委内瑞拉地区局势紧张，俄乌地区仍未达成一致，格陵兰岛问题持续发 酵。全球范围内"去美元化"趋势的加速，共同推动了央行和投资者持续购金。长期看，全球货币与债务 担忧，使得黄金受益于债务和货币宽松的交易方向，美国债务总额已突破38.5万亿美元，"大而美"法案 的通过预计提高美国3.4万亿美元财政赤字，美国联邦政府在2025财年的预算赤字为1.8万亿美元，尽管 关税收入大幅增长，但与2024财年总体相比变化不大。全球多国财政赤字处于高位，降息趋势下国债利 率上涨，体现对债务规模的担忧，看好未来黄金价格。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化 ...

资金面看，矿业ETF（561330）近20日资金净流入超10亿元，有色金属或迎超级周期。 西部证券指出，当前大宗商品和有色金属的底层逻辑是交易美联储QE。在康波萧条期，大宗商品超级 周期的底层逻辑是交易美元信用裂痕，也就是泛滥的美元流动性会更加泛滥。2026年，美联储QE会导 致美元流动性加速泛滥，强化康波萧条期的商品超级周期，具有货币属性和安全属性的金、银、铜、锂 将得到系统性重估。有色金属的核心逻辑在于全球再工业化与去美元化叙事下，康波的年轮指引大宗商 品"走向1978"。 矿业ETF（561330）跟踪的是有色矿业指数（931892），该指数从市场中选取涉及铜、铝、铅锌、稀有 金属等矿产资源开发业务的相关企业证券作为指数样本，以反映有色金属矿采选行业的整体表现。根据 wind数据，2025年全年，矿业ETF（561330）年内涨幅全市场ETF第三，有色类ETF第一，具备龙头更 集中，【黄金+铜+稀土】占比更高的特点。 风险提示：数据来源：wind，矿业ETF2025年涨幅106.11%，在有色板块10只ETF中排名第一。提及个 股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参考， ...