城市与区域治理研究院 苏志勇/文 4月16日，国家统计局发布国民经济运行情况和房地产相关数据。一季度国内生产总值同比增长5.4%，超出市场预期，国民经济实现良好开局。商品房销 售面积、商品房销售额、房地产开发到位资金等各项指标跌幅明显收窄；70个大中城市新建商品住宅和二手住宅销售价格跌幅明显收窄；一线城市新房价 格环比稳步回升，二手住宅价格环比由降转升。数据显示，房地产主要指标呈现积极变化，止跌回稳趋势明显。 2025年全国两会首次将"稳住楼市"写入政府工作报告，将"持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳"列为经济工作总体目标。在存量政策逐渐显效和增量政策持 续加码作用下，一季度房地产多项指标持续改善，为全面实现止跌回稳的目标奠定了良好基础。 房地产多项指标"拐头向上" 根据国家统计局数据，1~3月份，新建商品房销售面积21869万平方米，同比下降3.0%，降幅比1~2月份收窄2.1个百分点。新建商品房销售额20798亿元， 下降2.1%，降幅收窄0.5个百分点。3月末，商品房待售面积78664万平方米，比2月末减少1227万平方米。其中住宅待售面积减少1017万平方米。 价格方面，截至3月末，全国70个大中城市新房 ...

行 业 及 产 业 房地产 业 研 究 行 业 点 评 标配(维持) 证 券 研 究 报 告 马燕 15901097973 S0400524090001 mayan@cdzq.com 2025 年 04 月 17 日 房地产：政策效应初显，市场分化 延续 研报摘要： / 行 事件：2025 年 4 月 16 日，国家统计局发布 2025 年 3 月份商品住宅销售价格变动情况 统计数据，70 个大中城市中，有 24 城新建商品住宅价格环比上涨，2 月为 18 城；环 比看，上海涨幅 0.7%领跑，北广深分别跌 0.2%、跌 0.1%、涨 0.1%。 房地产与大盘对比走势： 商品住宅整体止跌回稳态势明显，一线城市复苏表现分化。在去年 9 月底"止跌回稳" 政策的利好下，房地产市场基本面持续改善，房价指标进一步改善。根据统计局数据， 3 月，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格同比下降 2.8%，降幅比上月收窄 0.2 个百分点； 环比上涨 0.1%，涨幅与上月相同。上海和深圳环比分别为 5.7%、-3.9%分别上涨 0.7% 和 0.1%，北京和广州分别下降 0.2%和 0.1%。一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比由上月 下降 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][66]. Core Viewpoints - The sales performance in March 2025 showed continued marginal improvement, with a narrowing year-on-year decline in scale [4][5]. - The decline in new housing prices has narrowed across various city tiers, with first-tier cities experiencing a positive month-on-month price change for five consecutive months [4][20]. - The decline in development investment and funds available to real estate companies has slightly widened [4][39]. - New construction and completion metrics have shown significant fluctuations, but the year-on-year decline has notably narrowed [4][47]. - The report anticipates that future real estate policies will be crucial for stabilizing the market, with potential measures such as inventory reduction policies expected to be gradually implemented [4][62]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first three months of 2025, the total sales amount for commercial housing was 20,798 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%, while the sales area was 21,869 million square meters, down 3.0% year-on-year [3][5]. - In March alone, the sales amount was 10,539 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, and the sales area was 11,123 million square meters, down 0.9% year-on-year [5]. Investment and Financing - Real estate development investment in the first three months of 2025 was 19,904 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%, while funds available to real estate companies were 24,729 billion yuan, down 3.7% year-on-year [3][39]. - In March, the development investment was 9,184 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.0%, and the funds available were 9,152 billion yuan, down 3.9% year-on-year [39]. Construction Metrics - The new construction area in the first three months of 2025 was 12,996 million square meters, down 24.4% year-on-year, while the completion area was 13,060 million square meters, down 14.3% year-on-year [3][47]. - In March, the new construction area was 6,382 million square meters, down 18.1% year-on-year, and the completion area was 4,296 million square meters, down 11.5% year-on-year [47]. Price Trends - The average selling price of new commercial housing in the first three months of 2025 was 9,510 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [20]. - In March, the average selling price was 9,475 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% [20].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate market, suggesting a recovery trend supported by policy measures and demand release [5][20]. Core Insights - The real estate market showed signs of stabilization and recovery in Q1 2025, driven by strong policy support and the release of housing demand [5][20]. - The secondary housing market has become the main driver of recovery, with significant increases in transaction volumes compared to new homes [6][21]. - New homes in first-tier cities exhibit resilience, particularly high-quality projects that continue to sell well despite overall market trends [7][25]. - The interaction between new home sales and land auctions has created a positive feedback loop, enhancing market confidence [11][34]. - Ongoing policy support, including the relaxation of purchase restrictions, has been crucial for market performance, especially in core cities [12][37]. Summary by Sections Secondary Housing Market - The secondary housing market has seen a notable increase in transaction activity, with a 45% year-on-year rise in transactions in first-tier cities from January to March 2025 [6][21]. - In March 2025, daily average transactions in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showed significant growth compared to the previous year, indicating a strong recovery [21][22]. - Price stability in the secondary market is essential for boosting buyer confidence and overall market recovery [6][21]. New Housing Market - High-quality new homes in first-tier cities are performing well, with notable sales figures reported for premium projects [7][25]. - The shift in buyer preferences towards quality living spaces is evident, with safety, comfort, and sustainability becoming key considerations [7][25][28]. - New housing supply is increasingly focused on larger units, reflecting a growing demand for improved living conditions [31][32]. Market Dynamics - The recovery in new home sales has positively impacted land auction activities, leading to increased competition and higher land prices [11][34]. - The average premium rates for land auctions in major cities have risen significantly, indicating renewed confidence among developers [11][34]. Policy Support - The relaxation of purchase restrictions in core cities has played a vital role in the market's recovery, with significant increases in new home sales reported [12][37]. - The introduction of housing vouchers and urban village renovations is expected to further stimulate demand and improve market conditions [38][40].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the real estate sector, indicating a potential recovery in the market with a focus on demand stimulation and policy support [5][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that new home transaction volumes have shown a mixed performance, with a decrease in week-on-week transactions but an increase year-on-year, indicating a potential recovery trend [17][18]. - The inventory of new homes has decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year, suggesting improved absorption rates in the market [40][29]. - The land market has experienced a rise in transaction volumes and prices, indicating increased developer interest despite a year-on-year decline in volume [62][65]. Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Home Market, Second-hand Market, and Inventory Tracking - New home transaction volume in 40 cities was 24,000 units, down 25.4% week-on-week but up 20.3% year-on-year. The transaction area was 2.774 million square meters, down 25.8% week-on-week but up 22.1% year-on-year [18][26]. - The inventory of new homes in 12 cities was 790,000 units, down 44.6% month-on-month and down 15.8% year-on-year, indicating a tightening market [29][37]. - The second-hand home market saw a transaction volume of 19,000 units, down 24.2% week-on-week but up 48.8% year-on-year, with a transaction area of 170,000 square meters, down 25.3% week-on-week but up 33.2% year-on-year [45][52]. 2. Land Market Tracking - The total land transaction area across 100 cities was 17.867 million square meters, up 33.4% month-on-month but down 22.2% year-on-year. The total land transaction price was 79.09 billion yuan, up 113.4% month-on-month and up 62.5% year-on-year [62][65]. - The average land price was 4,426.87 yuan per square meter, up 60.0% month-on-month and up 108.8% year-on-year, indicating strong demand for land despite fluctuations in volume [64][66]. 3. Policy and Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of demand-side policies to stabilize the real estate market, suggesting that the recovery will depend on further easing measures and the pace of urban renewal projects [5][6]. - Recommended investment targets include companies with strong fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms showing significant breakthroughs, and those benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand market [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Views - The real estate market is showing signs of improvement with sales continuing to recover and various policy relaxations being introduced across multiple regions [1] - The report highlights a significant increase in year-on-year sales for both new and second-hand homes, indicating a positive trend in the market [1][2] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The real estate sector saw a decline of 1.3% last week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind All A Index, which fell by 1.8% and 2.0%, respectively [62] - In the new housing market, 36 cities recorded a total transaction area of 2.355 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 28.4% but a year-on-year increase of 17.0% [13] - The second-hand housing market in 15 cities saw a transaction area of 1.619 million square meters, down 21.7% month-on-month but up 56.9% year-on-year [21] 2. Inventory and Absorption - The cumulative inventory of new homes in 13 cities is 76.621 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.6% [35] - The absorption cycle for new homes in these cities is 15.8 months, showing a slight improvement compared to previous periods [35] 3. Land Market - From March 31 to April 6, 2025, the land transaction area across 100 cities was 1.974 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 15.5% but a year-on-year increase of 103.0% [50] - The average land price was 825 RMB per square meter, down 69.0% month-on-month and 12.4% year-on-year [50] 4. Investment Recommendations - For real estate development, the report recommends companies such as China Resources Land, Poly Developments, and Binjiang Group, with a focus on companies with strong shareholder backing [8] - In property management, recommended companies include China Resources Vientiane Life, Greentown Service, and Poly Property [8] - For real estate brokerage, the report suggests focusing on leading platforms like Beike and regional leaders like I Love My Home [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [6] Core Insights - In the first three months of 2025, the top 100 real estate companies experienced a year-on-year decline in total sales of 7.3%, with a significant increase in the decline compared to the previous two months [1][2] - The report highlights that the real estate market is expected to stabilize in high-capacity cities due to the implementation of various supportive policies [4][64] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In March 2025, the top 10 real estate companies reported total sales of 177.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 15.6% [1] - Cumulatively, from January to March 2025, the top 100 companies had total sales of 784.7 billion yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year [2][35] - The average year-on-year sales growth for 48 out of the top 50 companies in March 2025 was 35.5%, with a median of 1.4% [41] Market Trends - The report notes that the sales concentration among the top 100 companies increased year-on-year, indicating a trend towards market consolidation [49] - The report identifies eight out of twenty mainstream companies that showed positive year-on-year sales growth in March 2025, with notable performances from China State Construction and Yuexiu Property [3][53] Policy Impact - The report discusses the impact of various government policies aimed at revitalizing the real estate market, including adjustments to mortgage rates and down payment ratios [4][64] - It suggests that the ongoing implementation of these policies will enhance local government autonomy in real estate regulation, leading to further regional differentiation [4][64] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading real estate companies with strong regional development capabilities and those actively participating in urban renewal projects [5][64] - It also highlights the potential of commercial public REITs that possess rich resources in existing commercial real estate [5][64]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in sales performance among the top 100 real estate companies in China during the first quarter of 2025, with a total sales amount of 810.1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 9.8% [1] - Poly Developments ranked first in sales with a cumulative total of 63 billion yuan, followed by Greentown China and China Resources Land with 52.39 billion yuan and 51.2 billion yuan respectively [1] - The number of companies with cumulative sales exceeding 10 billion yuan decreased by 4 to 17, while those exceeding 5 billion yuan decreased by 2 to 38 [1] Group 2 - In contrast, first and second-tier cities showed strong sales performance in March, with Beijing's top three projects generating approximately 22.5 billion yuan [2] - Shanghai also maintained high sales, with a luxury project achieving a total sales amount of 9.234 billion yuan shortly after its launch [2] - The market has shown signs of recovery, with new home sales in key cities maintaining a positive trend for two consecutive quarters, indicating a stabilization in the market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is undergoing a deep adjustment, but recent policy measures have led to a stabilization in sales and prices, indicating an important window for recovery and breakthrough in the industry [3][4]. Company Strategy - The company emphasizes the need for enhanced capabilities in precise investment, refined operations, and high-quality products as the market enters a lean development phase [3]. - For 2025, the company will adhere to a principle of cautious investment, focusing on cash flow safety while optimizing land reserves and structural adjustments [3][4]. Investment Performance - In the previous year, the company acquired 29 projects with an equity investment of 52.6 billion, maintaining a top-three position in investment intensity, with 94% of investments in first- and second-tier cities [4]. - The company aims to increase inventory turnover and leverage central government support to enhance land utilization, achieving a significant resource exchange effect [4]. Financial Highlights - The company reported a total saleable resource of 500.9 billion for 2025, with 89% located in high-energy first- and second-tier cities, and residential products making up 77% [5]. - In 2024, the company achieved a contract amount of 261.1 billion, accounting for 2.7% of national housing sales, ranking third in the industry; total revenue reached 278.8 billion, an 11% year-on-year increase, while net profit decreased by 18.5% to 25.58 billion [5]. - The company’s comprehensive gross margin stands at 21.6%, with a net interest-bearing debt ratio of 31.9% and a weighted average financing cost reduced to 3.11% [5].

投资建议：2025年1-2月房地产开发投资10720亿元，同比下降9.80%，降幅较 2024年收窄 0.80pct。2025 年开年来，楼市逐渐修复，房企投资意愿有所改善。开工端：2025年1-2月新开工面积6614万方，同比 下降29.60%，降幅较2024年扩大，主要受季节性因素影响。竣工端：2025 年 1-2 月竣工面积8764万 方，同比下降15.60%，同比降幅较上月收窄12.10pct,竣工同比降幅显著收窄。随着楼市逐渐修复，房企 的投资意愿或将逐渐改善。 资金：累计到位资金降幅显著收窄。2025年1-2月房企到位资金 15577亿元，同比下降3.60%，降幅较 2024 年全年收窄 13.40pct。其中 1-2月国内贷款为 2954 亿元，同比下降6.10%；自筹资金 5233亿元，同 比下降2.10%,定金及预付款4577 亿元，同比下降0.9%，个人按揭贷款1945 亿元，同比下降 11.70%。针 对融资侧和企业端的政策逐渐出台，城市房地产融资协调机制于 2024年1月成立，截至 2025年3月5日， 房地产融资协调机制目前审批贷款超过6万亿元，房企流动性压力有望进一步缓解。 中国银 ...