Report Overview - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: November 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Coke and coking coal futures have stopped rising due to accelerated steel production cuts, but the spot market still has strong support. The market may experience periodic corrections, but overall it is relatively resistant to decline. Future attention should be paid to the impact of rising temperatures on coal demand and the support of steel profit repair expectations on the coking coal market [10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Performance - On November 3, the main contract 2601 of coke futures oscillated lower for three consecutive trading days, while the main contract 2601 of coking coal futures oscillated within a range and was relatively resistant to decline. The closing price of coke futures contract J2601 was 1771.5 yuan/ton, down 1.17%; the closing price of coking coal futures contract JM2601 was 1284.5 yuan/ton, down 0.85% [5] - In the black - series futures on November 3, in terms of the long - short positions of the top 20 in each contract, the long - short deviation degrees of different contracts varied. For example, the long - short deviation degree of SS2512 was 6.89%, and that of I2601 was - 3.74% [6] 3.2 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - On November 3, the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1570 yuan/ton, with no change. The low - sulfur main coking coal prices in different regions showed different changes, with increases in Tangshan, Heze, and Pingdingshan [8] - The daily KDJ indicator of the coke 2601 contract continued to decline after a dead - cross the previous day, and the daily KDJ indicator of the coking coal 2601 contract had a dead - cross. The daily MACD red bar of the coke 2601 contract began to narrow, and that of the coking coal 2601 contract continued to narrow [8] 3.3 Market Outlook - Recently, the coke production of independent coking enterprises has significantly declined, and the coke inventories of ports and independent coking enterprises are generally low, leading to the third round of price increases in the coke spot market. Due to low - temperature weather in most northern regions and stricter coal mine safety production inspections, coal prices have generally risen. Although the import of coking coal has recovered, it was still down by more than 6% year - on - year from January to September, and the spot price of coking coal has significantly increased [10] 3.4 Industry News - Huaxin Steel adheres to a lean production and low - inventory operation strategy. The iron ore inventory cycle is about 22 - 25 days, and the coal and coke inventory is about 10 - 15 days. The proportion of long - term coking coal contracts is about 60%. In the third quarter, the long - term coking coal contracts increased by about 50 yuan/ton compared with the second quarter, and the market coal increased by about 100 - 200 yuan/ton [11] - On November 3, the freight rates from Liulin to Tangshan, Ganqimaodu to Tangshan, and Xiaoyi to Rizhao showed different trends. The freight rates from Liulin to Tangshan and Ganqimaodu to Tangshan were flat, while the freight rate from Xiaoyi to Rizhao increased by 11 yuan/ton compared with last week [11] - In the third quarter of 2025, Yankuang Energy's revenue was 38.259 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.26%; the net profit was 2.288 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 36.60%. The revenue in the first three quarters was 104.957 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.64% [11] - On November 3, Mongolia's ER Company's coking coal was auctioned online. The starting price of Meng 3 clean coal was 800 yuan/ton, and all 12,800 tons were sold at a price of 1040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous auction on the 31st [11] - From October 27 to November 2, the global iron ore shipments were 32.138 million tons, a decrease of 1.745 million tons compared with the previous period. The shipments from Australia and Brazil were 27.592 million tons, a decrease of 1.667 million tons [11] - In October this year, India's total power generation decreased by 6% year - on - year to 142.45 billion kWh, and the coal - fired power generation decreased by 13.2% year - on - year to 98.38 billion kWh [12] - On November 1, Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry released the reference prices for thermal coal in the first half of November 2025, with most prices lower than those in the second half of October [12] 3.5 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data graphs, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the spot price of main coking coal, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, the national daily average pig iron output, the coke and coking coal inventories in ports, steel mills, and coking plants, and the basis of coke and coking coal contracts [14][18][19][26][32]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report No explicit core view is presented in the provided content. The report mainly offers data on the market situation of synthetic rubber, including price, volume, basis, and profit information for BR and BD. 3. Summary by Related Catalog BR (Cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber) - **Futures Information**: On November 3, the BR主力合约(12) price was 10360, down 225 from the previous day and 445 from the previous week. The open interest was 37796, down 3692 from the previous day and 10822 from the previous week. The trading volume was 149850, up 31566 from the previous day and 37414 from the previous week. The warrant quantity remained at 8580, with no daily or weekly change. The long - short ratio was 22.03, down 2 from the previous day and 6 from the previous week [3]. - **Basis/Spread/Inter - Variety Spread**: The cis - butadiene basis was 140, down 25 from the previous day and 5 from the previous week. The styrene - butadiene basis was 740, up 125 from the previous day. The 12 - 01 spread was 30, up 45 from the previous week. The 01 - 02 spread was 5, up 15 from the previous day and 15 from the previous week. The RU - BR spread was 4735, up 235 from the previous day and 180 from the previous week. The NR - BR spread was 1840, up 195 from the previous day and 115 from the previous week [3]. - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 10500, down 250 from the previous day and 450 from the previous week. The Transfar market price was 10350, down 250 from the previous day and 550 from the previous week. The Qilu ex - factory price was 10500, down 500 from the previous day and 500 from the previous week. The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1450, with no daily change and down 25 from the previous week. The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1700, with no daily or weekly change [3]. - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was 961, up 10 from the previous day and 320 from the previous week. The import profit was - 1666, down 260 from the previous day and 277 from the previous week. The export profit was 2315, up 227 from the previous day and 419 from the previous week [3]. BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 7195, down 255 from the previous day and 755 from the previous week. The Jiangsu market price was 7200, down 200 from the previous day and 700 from the previous week. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 7200, down 300 from the previous day and 1000 from the previous week. The CFR China price was 850, down 60 from the previous day and 110 from the previous week [3]. - **Profit**: The carbon - four extraction profit was not available for calculation on November 3. The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 1376, down 312 from the previous day and 742 from the previous week. The import profit was 215, up 276 from the previous day and 167 from the previous week. The export profit was - 294, up 37 from the previous day and - 193 from the previous week. The Japanese production profit was 1238, down 275 from the previous day and 275 from the previous week. The ABS production profit and SBS production profit data were partially unavailable [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 3, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,284.5, down 0.85%. The market should be treated as a wide - range oscillation. The mine's start - up rate has declined slightly for two consecutive weeks due to safety inspections, and the inventory is at a neutral level. The start - up rate of coal washing plants has decreased, while the middle and downstream are replenishing stocks, and the total inventory shows a seasonal upward trend [2]. - On November 3, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1,771.5, down 1.17%. The market should be treated as a wide - range oscillation driven by cost. The demand side shows a seasonal decline in hot metal production, and the total coke inventory is higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 32 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价为1,284.50元/吨，环比下跌1.50元；J主力合约收盘价为1,771.50元/吨，环比下跌5.50元 [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量为954,896.00手，环比减少3,107.00手；J期货合约持仓量为50,255.00手，环比增加377.00手 [2]. - 焦煤前20名合约净持仓为 - 62,214.00手，环比减少5,683.00手；焦炭前20名合约净持仓为 - 5,533.00手，环比增加127.00手 [2]. - JM5 - 1月合约价差为63.00元/吨，环比下跌5.00元；J5 - 1月合约价差为137.00元/吨，环比下跌2.50元 [2]. - 焦煤仓单为500.00张，环比增加500.00张；焦炭仓单为2,070.00张，环比无变化 [2]. Spot Market - 干其毛都蒙5原煤价格为1,170.00元/吨，环比无变化；唐山一级冶金焦价格为1,775.00元/吨，环比上涨55.00元 [2]. - 俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货（CFR）价格为157.50美元/湿吨，环比无变化；日照港准一级冶金焦价格为1,570.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元 [2]. - 京唐港澳大利亚进口主焦煤价格为1,700.00元/吨，环比无变化；天津港一级冶金焦价格为1,670.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元 [2]. - 京唐港山西产主焦煤价格为1,760.00元/吨，环比无变化；天津港准一级冶金焦价格为1,570.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元 [2]. - 山西晋中灵石中硫主焦价格为1,520.00元/吨，环比无变化；内蒙古乌海产焦煤出厂价为1,280.00元/吨，环比无变化 [2]. - JM主力合约基差为235.50元/吨，环比上涨1.50元；J主力合约基差为3.50元/吨，环比上涨60.50元 [2]. Upstream Situation - 314家独立洗煤厂精煤产量为26.50万吨，环比减少0.20万吨；314家独立洗煤厂精煤库存为284.40万吨，环比减少5.20万吨 [2]. - 314家独立洗煤厂产能利用率为0.37%，环比无变化；原煤产量为41,150.50万吨，环比增加2,100.80万吨 [2]. - 煤及褐煤进口量为4,600.00万吨，环比增加326.00万吨；523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量为190.30万吨，环比减少0.60万吨 [2]. - 16个港口进口焦煤库存为513.89万吨，环比增加6.71万吨；焦炭18个港口库存为269.90万吨，环比增加9.11万吨 [2]. - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤总库存为1,052.70万吨，环比增加23.00万吨；独立焦企全样本焦炭库存为59.87万吨，环比增加1.23万吨 [2]. - 全国247家钢厂炼焦煤库存为796.32万吨，环比增加13.36万吨；全国247家样本钢厂焦炭库存为629.05万吨，环比减少4.11万吨 [2]. - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数为12.96天，环比增加0.19天；247家样本钢厂焦炭可用天数为11.57天，环比增加0.50天 [2]. - 炼焦煤进口量为1,092.36万吨，环比增加76.14万吨；焦炭及半焦炭出口量为54.00万吨，环比减少1.00万吨 [2]. - 炼焦煤产量为3,696.86万吨，环比减少392.52万吨；独立焦企产能利用率为73.44%，环比减少0.03% [2]. - 独立焦化厂吨焦盈利情况为 - 32.00元/吨，环比增加9.00元；焦炭产量为4,255.60万吨，环比减少4.10万吨 [2]. National Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为81.73%，环比减少3.00%；247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率为88.59%，环比减少1.33% [2]. - 粗钢产量为7,349.01万吨，环比减少387.84万吨 [2]. Industry News - On October 31, the Yunnan Iron and Steel Industry Anti - Involution Seminar was held in Kunming. Representatives from major steel enterprises in the province attended, emphasizing that anti - involution is the common responsibility of the entire industry and a long - term strategic choice [2]. - The president of the China Animal Husbandry Association stated that high - quality development in the pig breeding industry does not exclude competition. Enterprises must innovate, reduce grain consumption, and control pig production capacity. Government departments need to intervene in the disorderly involution - style competition in the industry [2]. - Since October 1, the US government shutdown has set the second - longest record. Over one million US military soldiers face salary payment problems, and about 42 million people in the US may face food shortages in November. The shutdown may last until late November [2].

| 湘脂 | | 业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年11月3日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [201] 1292号 | | | | 王澄辉 | Z0019938 | | 原田 | | | | | | | | | | | 10月31日 | 10月30日 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | | 现价 | | 江苏一级 | 8400 | 8400 | 0 | 0.00% | | 期价 | | Y2601 | 8128 | 8168 | -40 | -0.49% | | 星差 | | Y2601 | 272 | 232 | 40 | 17.24% | | 现货基差报价 | | 江苏1月 | 01+250 | 01+250 | 0 | - | | 它車 | | | 27644 | 27644 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | | | | 10月31日 | 10月30日 | 涨跌 | 旅跌幅 | | 现价 | | 广东24度 | 8700 | 8750 | =50 | -0.57% | | ...

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View Supply-wise, rain in the producing areas continued until the end of the month, causing raw material prices to rise, which provided short-term support for rubber prices. In the long run, there was still an expectation of increased supply. Demand-wise, semi-steel tire companies maintained stable production, while some all-steel tire companies had rising inventories. Overnight, the Fed's hawkish stance on the December interest rate cut pressured rubber prices in the short term. If raw material supply increased smoothly, rubber prices might decline further; otherwise, they were expected to trade between 15,000 - 15,500 yuan/ton [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On October 30, the price of Yunnan Guofu standard rubber (SCRWF) was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day. The basis of the whole process was -600 yuan/ton, up 31.43%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 14,950 yuan/ton, down 1.32%. The non-standard price difference was -450 yuan/ton, up 5.26%. The FOB intermediate price of cup rubber in the international market was 53.25 Thai baht/kg, down 0.19%. The FOB intermediate price of glue in the international market was 55.50 Thai baht/kg, up 0.91%. The price of natural rubber blocks in Xishuangbanna was 13,000 yuan/ton, up 1.56%. The price of natural rubber glue in Xishuangbanna was 14,100 yuan/ton, up 2.17%. The mainstream market price of raw materials in Hainan was 13,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: On October 30, the 9 - 1 spread was 150 yuan/ton, up 3.45% from the previous day. The 1 - 5 spread was -90 yuan/ton, down 12.50%. The 5 - 9 spread was -60 yuan/ton, up 7.69% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, Thailand's production was 458,800 tons, down 0.43% from the previous month. Indonesia's production was 189,000 tons, down 4.30%. India's production was 500,000 tons, up 11.11%. China's production data was not provided. The weekly operating rate of semi-steel tires was 73.41%, down 0.26 percentage points. The weekly operating rate of all-steel tires was 65.34%, down 0.24 percentage points. In August, domestic tire production was 102.954 million pieces, up 9.10%. In September, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 5.63 million pieces, down 10.65%. In August, the total import volume of natural rubber was 595,900 tons, up 14.41%. In September, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) was 740,000 tons, up 12.12%. The daily production cost of dry rubber (STR20) in Thailand was 13,327 yuan/ton, up 0.08%. The daily production profit of dry rubber (STR20) in Thailand was -572 yuan/ton, down 35.22%. The daily production cost of dry rubber (RSS3) in Thailand was 16,414 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The daily production profit of dry rubber (RSS3) in Thailand was 2,186 yuan/ton, down 1.18% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of October 30, the bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) was 432,229 tons, down 1.20% from the previous day. The factory warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 42,640 tons, up 6.28%. The出库 rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao was 4.94%, down 1.50 percentage points. The warehousing rate of dry rubber in general trade in Qingdao was 11.61%, up 1.99 percentage points. The出库 rate of dry rubber in general trade in Qingdao was 12.69%, up 3.11 percentage points [1]. Group 2: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The log futures market was under pressure due to a significant increase in supply at the port, insufficient downstream orders, and falling prices at surrounding ports. However, the relatively low futures price and the obvious inversion of domestic and foreign prices provided some support for import costs, limiting the downside space. Overall, the log futures market was expected to remain weakly volatile [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 30, the prices of log futures contracts LG2511, LG2601, LG2603, and LG2605 were 763.5, 786, 802, and 818.5 yuan/cubic meter respectively, with changes of -1.17%, -0.13%, -0.31%, and -0.12% from the previous day. The 11 - 01 spread was -22.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 6.5 yuan from the previous day. The 11 - 03 spread was -38.5 yuan/cubic meter. The 11 - contract basis was -3.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 9 yuan from the previous day. The 01 - contract basis was -26 yuan/cubic meter, up 1 yuan from the previous day. The prices of 3.9A small, medium, and large radiata pine at Rizhao Port were 710, 760, and 880 yuan/cubic meter respectively, unchanged from the previous day. The prices of 4A small, medium, and large radiata pine at Taicang Port were 710, 770, and 820 yuan/cubic meter respectively, with the small and medium radiata pine prices down 1.39% and 1.28% respectively. The price of spruce 11.8 at Rizhao Port was 1,180 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day. The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine was 115 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day. The CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce was 125 euros/JAS cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day [3]. - **Cost: Import Cost Calculation**: On October 30, the RMB/USD exchange rate was 7.100, up 0.003 from the previous day. The import theoretical cost, calculated with a 15% over - length allowance, was 802.74 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.30 yuan from the previous day [3]. - **Supply**: In September, the port shipping volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 1.766 million cubic meters, up 6.00% from August. The number of departing ships was 46, up 4.55% from August [3]. - **Inventory: Main Port Inventory**: As of October 24, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 2.84 million cubic meters, down 80,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The inventory in Shandong was 1.865 million cubic meters, up 1.03%. The inventory in Jiangsu was 786,900 cubic meters, down 11.32% [3]. - **Demand: Average Daily Outbound Volume**: As of October 24, the average daily outbound volume in China was 64,400 cubic meters, up 2% from the previous week. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong was 34,200 cubic meters, up 4%. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu was 23,300 cubic meters, down 4% [3]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View For soda ash, the macro - level leaders' meeting had a negative impact on the commodity market, and the previous rebound ended abruptly. The supply was at a high level, and the demand was mainly driven by rigid needs. The market was still under pressure, and investors were advised to wait for a rebound to short. For glass, the macro - level situation also had a negative impact. The spot sales improved recently, driving the futures market to stabilize and rebound. However, the deep - processing orders were still weak, and the industry needed to clear excess capacity in the long run. Investors were advised to close previous short positions and look for short - term long opportunities by monitoring the spot market [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: On October 31, the spot prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China were 1,130, 1,250, 1,120, and 1,210 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged from the previous day. The prices of glass contracts 2505 and 2509 were 1,243 and 1,327 yuan/ton respectively, down 2.81% and 2.21% from the previous day. The 05 - contract basis was -113 yuan/ton, up 24.16% from the previous day [4]. - **Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: On October 31, the spot prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China were 1,300, 1,250, 1,250, and 950 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged from the previous day. The prices of soda ash contracts 2505 and 2509 were 1,324 and 1,382 yuan/ton respectively, down 1.71% and 1.34% from the previous day. The 05 - contract basis was -24 yuan/ton, up 48.94% from the previous day [4]. - **Supply**: On October 31, the soda ash operating rate was 86.89%, down 1.72 percentage points from October 24. The weekly soda ash production was 757,600 tons, down 1.71%. The daily melting volume of float glass was 161,300 tons, unchanged. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was 88,540 tons, down 0.84%. The mainstream price of 3.2mm coated glass was 19.50 yuan, down 2.50% [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 31, the glass factory warehouse inventory was 65.79 million weight boxes, up 4.72% from October 24. The soda ash factory warehouse inventory was 170,200 tons, up 2.54%. The soda ash delivery warehouse inventory was 676,900 tons, down 3.18%. The number of days of soda ash inventory in glass factories was 20.4 days, unchanged [4]. - **Real Estate Data (Year - on - Year)**: In the current period, the new construction area was -0.09%, up 0.09 percentage points from the previous period. The construction area was 0.05%, down 2.43 percentage points. The completion area was -0.22%, down 0.03 percentage points. The sales area was -6.55%, down 6.50 percentage points [4]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, and the futures price rose first and then fell back 15 yuan/ton, closing at 9,155 yuan/ton. The increase in weekly supply and the decrease in demand might lead to inventory accumulation, putting pressure on prices. The opening of the arbitrage window in East China might bring hedging opportunities. The rise in coking coal prices might drive up the futures price of industrial silicon. Overall, the price of industrial silicon was expected to fluctuate at a low level, with a main price range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis**: On October 30, the price of East China oxygen - enriched SI5530 industrial silicon was 9,320 yuan/ton, up 1.07% from the previous day. The basis (based on oxygen - enriched SI5530) was 295 yuan/ton, up 63.89%. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The basis (based on SI4210) was -255 yuan/ton, up 20.31%. The price of Xinjiang 99 - grade industrial silicon was 8,750 yuan/ton, up 0.57%. The basis (in Xinjiang) was 385 yuan/ton, up 19.70% [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: On October 30, the 2511 - 2512 spread was -385 yuan/ton, down 2.60% from the previous day. The 2512 - 2601 spread was 30 yuan/ton, up 200.00%. The 2601 - 2602 spread was -10 yuan/ton, down 66.67%. The 2602 - 2603 spread was 10 yuan/ton, up 128.57%. The 2603 - 2604 spread was -10 yuan/ton, down 133.33% [5]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The national industrial silicon production was 420,800 tons, up 9.10% from the previous month. Xinjiang's production was 203,200 tons, up 19.78%. Yunnan's production was 58,100 tons, up 2.41%. Sichuan's production was 52,900 tons, down 1.49%. The national operating rate was 61.94%, up 10.86 percentage points. Xinjiang's operating rate was 74.00%, up 22.09 percentage points. Yunnan's operating rate was 41.71%, down 11.99 percentage points. Sichuan's operating rate was 44.94%, up 1.47 percentage points. The production of organic silicon DMC was 210,200 tons, down 5.78%. The production of polysilicon was 130,000 tons, down 1.29%. The production of recycled aluminum alloy was 661,000 tons, up 7.48%. The export volume of industrial silicon was 70,200 tons, down 8.36% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of October 30, the factory warehouse inventory in Xinjiang was 108,100 tons, down 0.28% from the previous day. The factory warehouse inventory in Yunnan was 34,600 tons, up 1.47%. The factory warehouse inventory in Sichuan was 25,200 tons, unchanged. The social inventory was 558,000 tons, down 0.18%. The warehouse receipt inventory was 237,100 tons, up 0.15%. The non - warehouse receipt inventory was 321,000 tons, down 0.42% [5]. Group 5: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The spot price of polysilicon decreased slightly by 50 yuan/ton to 52,300 yuan/ton, and the futures price fluctuated and fell 40 yuan/ton, closing at 54,950 yuan/ton. With the shutdown of production capacity in Southwest China, the production in November was expected to drop to about 120,000 tons. The weekly production of polysilicon and silicon wafers decreased by 3 - 4%. Although the silicon wafer production schedule increased, the downstream procurement decreased, leading to an increase in inventory. Currently, polysilicon prices were mainly in high - level consolidation. Attention should be paid to the establishment of platform companies, production control, and whether there would be an increase in downstream orders. Since the futures price was higher than the spot average price, further significant price increases would depend on the hedging and arbitrage space of upstream enterprises. Also, the implementation of follow - up measures or policies should be monitored [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On October 30, the average price of N - type polysilicon re - feedstock was 52,300 yuan/kg, down 0.10

Report Overview - Research Variety: Caustic Soda - Report Cycle: Daily - Date: October 29, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The caustic soda futures price oscillated and consolidated today, while the spot price remained weakly stable. Most chlor-alkali enterprises are operating at normal loads, and the demand side remains lukewarm. The enthusiasm of downstream operators and traders to enter the market is not high. It is expected that the caustic soda futures market may maintain a weakly oscillating pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the purchasing situation of major downstream industries and macro sentiment in the future [14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On October 29, 2025, the main caustic soda contract, Caustic Soda 2601, maintained an oscillating trend. The closing price was 2,361 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 0.21% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume increased by 34,000 lots compared to the previous day, with a total trading volume of 302,000 lots. The open interest was 134,000 lots, an increase of 1,952 lots from the previous day [2] 3.1.2 Variety Prices - Today, 12 caustic soda futures contracts oscillated and consolidated. The total open interest of the variety was 212,800 lots, an increase of 8,561 lots from the previous trading day. Among them, the open interest of the active contract, Caustic Soda 2601, increased by 1,952 lots, and the capital inflow was 34.8 million yuan [5] 3.1.3 Related Quotes - Today, the put options of the main caustic soda contract SH601 performed stronger than the call options, with overall limited fluctuations [8] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong Province remained weak today. Most enterprises' inventories increased at the end of the month, and the sales were poor. The mainstream transaction price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in southwestern Shandong was 790 - 830 yuan/ton, 750 - 810 yuan/ton in central and eastern Shandong, and 790 - 860 yuan/ton in northern Shandong. The mainstream transaction price of 50% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in central and eastern Shandong was 1,210 - 1,330 yuan/ton [10] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry News - The prices of liquid caustic soda and liquid chlorine in Shandong Province were stable today, and the chlor-alkali profit was 583 yuan/ton [12] 3.3.2 Technical Analysis - Today, the main caustic soda futures contract closed with a small positive line, maintaining a low-level oscillation. The price was suppressed by the 10-day moving average [12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 30, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2601 closed at 9,155 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.94%. The position increased by 7,102 lots to 228,000 lots. The reference price of industrial silicon spot by Baichuan was 9,554 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 285 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2601 closed at 54,950 yuan/ton, with an intraday decrease of 0.15%. The position increased by 7,622 lots to 126,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was 52,500 yuan/ton, with the spot discount narrowing to 490 yuan/ton [2]. - Due to production cuts in the southwest and silicon factories holding back supplies and raising prices, along with rising costs of silicon coal and electricity, the operating center of industrial silicon has moved upward. Due to the quota arrangement of the industry association, production cuts in silicon wafers after November are basically certain. Although the weekly production schedule of silicon wafers has increased significantly, the current high output is more likely to be a stage of concentrated production rush before the enterprise quota, and cannot be confirmed as a signal of actual demand improvement. The last week of October may be the stage of a production rush in the industry [2]. - Recently, the industry announced that 17 enterprises have signed for the production capacity storage platform. Coupled with the fact that downstream procurement has exceeded upstream output for the first time, it supports polysilicon to continue to operate strongly [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 9,155 yuan/ton, while the near - month contract increased by 5 yuan/ton to 9,185 yuan/ton. Among the spot prices, the price of some grades such as 421 silicon in some regions increased slightly, and the spot discount narrowed from - 330 yuan/ton to - 285 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 72 to 47,410, the factory inventory increased by 400 to 262,500 tons, and the social inventory increased by 400 to 445,500 tons [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the near - month contract decreased by 370 yuan/ton to 52,490 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various types of polysilicon remained stable, and the spot discount narrowed from - 860 yuan/ton to - 490 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 210 to 9,330, and the inventory in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 2.4 to 28.26 tons [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The spot price of DMC in the East China market remained stable at 11,000 yuan/ton, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,700 yuan/ton to 13,500 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Chart Analysis 2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][8][13]. 2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [15][17]. 2.3 Inventory - Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, social warehouses, DMC, and polysilicon [23][27]. 2.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon [31][33][38]. 3. Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, a senior researcher with over a decade of commodity research experience; Wang Heng, who focuses on aluminum and silicon research; and Zhu Xi, who focuses on lithium and nickel research [40][41].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Polyolefins follow the trend of crude oil. The overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, and demand is steadily released. Currently, the supply - demand pressure of polyolefins is temporarily limited. After a short - term rebound in the market, it may start to fluctuate in the future [2]. Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September were 6729, 6968, and 7030 respectively, with price drops of - 41, - 45, and - 39 compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 214616, 21528, and 268 respectively. The January - May, May - September, and September - January spreads were - 62, - 36, and 98 respectively, with changes from the previous values [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September were 7066, 6651, and 6721 respectively, with price drops of - 34, - 44, and - 33 compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 237497, 32465, and 619 respectively. The January - May, May - September, and September - January spreads were - 70, - 8, and 78 respectively, with changes from the previous values [2]. Spot Market - **Raw Materials and (Semi -) Products**: The current values of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and plastic film were 2221, 5940, 550, 5600, 6460, and 8700 respectively, with some changes compared to the previous values [2]. - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets for LL were 7000 - 7500, 6900 - 7150, and 7200 - 7500 respectively; for PP, they were 6550 - 6650, 6450 - 6550, and 6500 - 6650 respectively, remaining the same as the previous values [2]. Market News - On Thursday (October 30), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for December 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $60.57 per barrel, up $0.09 or 0.15% from the previous trading day. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.00 per barrel, up $0.08 or 0.12% from the previous trading day [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report PVC and Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market has weak demand support in the short - term due to high supply, low downstream alumina prices, and shrinking industry profits. However, there may be support in the medium - to long - term as the demand procurement cycle approaches and there may be concentrated stocking in the fourth quarter and more alumina production in the first quarter of next year [1]. - The PVC market is expected to continue the logic of a lackluster peak season. The supply has returned to a high level as some maintenance enterprises resumed production this week, while domestic downstream demand remains low, and the cost side provides only bottom - line support [1]. Polyester Industry - For PX, the short - term supply is stable with some plant overhauls offset by toluene and xylene supplements. The demand has strengthened slightly but the overall expectation is weak, and the cost support from oil prices is limited [2]. - For PTA, the spot basis is weak due to increased device loads and new production, and the expected rebound is under pressure [2]. - For ethylene glycol, the upward momentum is weakening due to port inventory changes, refinery maintenance, and falling oil prices. The far - month supply - demand structure is weak, and there is significant upward pressure [2]. - For short - fiber, the supply is high, the demand has improved marginally but the downstream's willingness to chase price increases is low. The cost support is limited, and the price is expected to face pressure in the rebound, although it is relatively stronger than raw materials due to low inventory [2]. - For bottle - chips, the demand is in the traditional off - season, and it is likely to enter a seasonal inventory accumulation period. The price mainly follows the cost side, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply of pure benzene in China is abundant with device restarts and new capacity expectations. The demand support is limited as most downstream products are in the red and some secondary - downstream inventories are high. The overall supply - demand expectation is loose, and the price drive is limited [5]. - Styrene is under pressure from inventory and industry profits. Although there are more planned and unplanned device shutdowns, new production from some plants maintains supply pressure. The demand support is limited as downstream industries mainly make rigid purchases due to high finished - product inventories. The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the rebound is expected to face pressure [5]. Methanol - The port methanol market is under significant pressure due to high inventory and weak demand, resulting in a decline in both price and basis. The inland market has weak sales as producers offer discounts and downstream buyers are hesitant. The demand side is weak as multiple MTO units reduce loads and plan more maintenance. The short - term price is expected to continue to decline, and attention should be paid to port inventory reduction and overseas gas restriction expectations [7][8]. Polyolefins - For PP, the supply recovery is slow due to more unplanned maintenance. For PE, the maintenance is peaking, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand side has improved with rising downstream operating rates, especially in the agricultural film sector. Both inventories are decreasing. The 01 contract still has inventory pressure, while the 05 contract may offer long - term low - buying opportunities [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC and Caustic Soda Prices - The price of Shandong 32% and 50% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged on October 30 compared to October 29. The price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 0.9% [1]. - Among futures, SH2509 increased by 0.4%, SH2601 decreased by 1.9%, V2509 decreased by - 0.3%, and V2601 decreased by - 0.2% [1]. Supply - The caustic soda industry's operating rate increased by 0.1% to 85.6% on October 24 compared to October 17, and the Shandong sample operating rate increased by 3.2% to 86.6%. The total PVC operating rate decreased by 1.9% to 73.7% [1]. Demand - The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda, such as the viscose staple fiber industry, remained unchanged, while the printing and dyeing industry's operating rate increased by 0.8%. For PVC, the operating rates of downstream products such as pipes and profiles increased, and the pre - sales volume increased by 14.4% [1]. Inventory - The liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories and Shandong decreased by 3.8% and 8.1% respectively. The PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 7.4%, and the total social inventory decreased by 0.3% [1]. Polyester Industry Upstream Prices - PX futures 2512 decreased by 0.8%, PX12 - PX01 decreased by 1.7%, and the PX - crude oil spread decreased by 0.5% on October 30 compared to October 29 [2]. Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - The cash flow of FDY150/96 increased by - 0.5%, the polyester bottle - chip processing fee increased by 5.3%, and the bottle - chip futures PR2601 price decreased by 1.0% [2]. Operating Rates - The PTA operating rate increased by 2.1% to 78.8%, the MEG comprehensive operating rate decreased by 5.0% to 73.3%, and the direct - spinning short - fiber operating rate remained unchanged at 94.3% [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (December) increased by 0.1%, WTI crude oil (December) increased by 0.1%, and CFR Japan naphtha increased by 0.3% on October 30 compared to October 29 [5]. Product Prices and Spreads - The pure benzene East - China spot price decreased by 0.4%, the styrene East - China spot price decreased by 1.2%, and the EB cash flow (non - integrated) decreased by 36.0% [5]. Operating Rates - The domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 3.6% to 72.7%, the styrene operating rate decreased by 3.7% to 69.3%, and the downstream PS operating rate remained unchanged at 53.8% [5]. Inventory - The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 14.1% to 8.50 tons, and the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 4.7% to 19.30 tons [5]. Methanol Prices - MA2601 decreased by 2.17% to 2208 yuan/ton, MA2605 decreased by 1.59% to 2284 yuan/ton, and the port Taicang spot price decreased by 1.14% to 2175 yuan/ton on October 30 compared to October 29 [6]. Inventory - The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 4.36% to 37.606%, the port inventory decreased by 0.38% to 150.6 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.53% to 188.3% [7]. Operating Rates - The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.09% to 75.78%, the upstream overseas enterprise operating rate decreased by 2.37% to 73.3%, and the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate increased by 7.63% to 84.06% [8]. Polyolefins Prices - L2601 decreased by 0.58% to 7015, PP2601 decreased by 0.51% to 6651, and the East - China PP拉丝 spot price decreased by 0.76% to 6510 on October 30 compared to October 29 [10]. Operating Rates - The PE device operating rate decreased by 0.37% to 81.5%, the PE downstream weighted operating rate increased by 1.85% to 45.8%, the PP device operating rate decreased by 2.9% to 75.9%, and the PP powder device operating rate increased by 7.1% to 41.4% [10]. Inventory - The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 19.16% to 41.6 tons, the PE social inventory decreased by 0.04% to 54.5 tons, the PP enterprise inventory decreased by 6.80% to 59.56 tons, and the PP trader inventory decreased by 10.48% to 21.4 tons [10].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: October 31, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Oil prices are adjusting again, asphalt supply and demand are weak, and prices may fall again [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: BU2601 opened at 3276 yuan/ton, closed at 3254 yuan/ton, with a high of 3281 yuan/ton, a low of 3247 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.40%, and a trading volume of 16.08 million lots; BU2512 opened at 3291 yuan/ton, closed at 3295 yuan/ton, with a high of 3295 yuan/ton, a low of 3260 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.4%, and a trading volume of 2.1 million lots [6] - Spot Market: In North China, asphalt spot prices fell; in South China, they rose slightly; in other regions, they were relatively stable. Crude oil and asphalt futures prices fluctuated downward, negatively affecting the spot market sentiment [6] - Supply: Some refineries have production reduction or suspension plans, but others are increasing production, and the overall operating load rate is expected to remain flat [6] - Demand: Demand is seasonally weakening. In the Northeast and Northwest, road projects are ending, and rigid demand is shrinking rapidly; in North China and Shandong, only key projects support demand, while small and medium - sized projects have low demand; in the South, construction is stable but demand is weak due to slow resource consumption. Lack of funds restricts project progress, and actual demand is weaker than expected [6] Group 5: Industry News - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt is 3200 - 3620 yuan/ton, remaining stable. Rigid demand is seasonally declining, market sentiment is cautious and bearish, and some high - end quotes are falling [8] - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt is 3370 - 3580 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. Sinopec's production plan reduction boosts the market, but terminal demand growth is insufficient, and the market is cautious [8] Group 6: Data Overview - Data on asphalt cracking, social inventory, daily operating rate, Shandong comprehensive profit, factory inventory, and warehouse receipts are presented, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][16][24]