2025 年 06 月 30 日 资料来源：SMM、同花顺 ifind、钢联、国泰君安期货研究所 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期 货 研 究 期货研究 铝：高位震荡，关注下游负反馈传导 氧化铝：横盘小涨 铝合金：成本支撑 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20580 | 135 | 115 | ર૦ર | -255 | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20580 | ー | ー | ー | l | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2595 | 10 | 34 | 114 | -94 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 204284 | 51874 | 111071 | 97842 | 78926 ...

2 硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2025年6月29日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 硅铁&锰硅观点：板块价格提振，矿端助推成本重心上移 | 基本面 | 条 | 硅 | 硅 | 铁 | 锰 | 目 | 当期值 | 当期值 | 比 | 同 | 比 | 比 | 同 | 比 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 环 | 环 | 周产量（周） ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 1）CBOT 玉米下跌。6 月 27 日当周 CBOT 玉米期货下跌 6.74%。美国中西部地区天气温暖且多雨，为 大豆和玉米作物创造了理想的生长条件，而巴西农民预计将在今年早些时候大豆产量创纪录之后，迎来二 季玉米丰收。市场关注下周一美国农业部公布的种植面积、季度库存和作物进展周报。 2）小麦价格上涨，进口玉米准备开拍。截至 6 月 27 日当周，中储粮网共进行行 1 场玉米竞价采购交 易，计划采购数量 2000 吨，实际成交数 量 2000 吨，成交率 100%，较上周持平；共进行 14 场玉米竞价 销售交易，计划销售数量 94685 吨，实际成交数量 85438 吨，成交率 90.23%，较上周减少 5.20%；共 进行 7 场玉米购销双向竞价交易，计划交易数量 76715 吨，实际成交数量 69181 吨，成交率 90.18%， 较上周增加 34.02%；共进行 0 场进口玉米及整理物竞价销售交易，计划销售 数量 0 吨，实际成交数量 0 吨，成交率 0。截至 6 月 26 日，全国小麦均价为 2439 元/吨。受托市政策启动影响，基层粮商惜售情绪 升温，叠加中储粮等储备库补库 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon futures price rebounded on June 25, 2025, while the spot price remained stable. The fundamentals are still weak, with an increase in supply and limited growth in terminal consumption. The recent strong performance of the futures market is mainly due to the expected increase in polysilicon production and market sentiment. Attention should be paid to potential industry policies [1]. - The polysilicon futures market maintained a volatile pattern on June 25, 2025, and the spot price remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased slightly, and the production increased weekly. However, the consumption side weakened, leading to a weak fundamental situation [3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On June 25, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rebounded. The main contract 2509 opened at 7,450 yuan/ton and closed at 7,555 yuan/ton, up 1.55% from the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract was 306,644 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on June 26 was 53,263 lots, a decrease of 307 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 8,000 - 8,300 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 8,400 - 9,000 yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 7,500 - 7,700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 7,500 - 7,700 yuan/ton [1]. - The price of organic silicon DMC rebounded slightly, with a quotation of 10,300 - 10,600 yuan/ton. The organic silicon industry has high production capacity pressure, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement [1]. - **Strategy** - For unilateral trading, use range - bound operations, and upstream producers can sell hedging at high prices when appropriate. There are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On June 25, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2508 maintained a volatile pattern, opening at 31,000 yuan/ton and closing at 30,625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.59% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 80,107 lots (72,286 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 146,141 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 30.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 28.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 27.00 - 30.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 33.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 31.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg [3]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased slightly, with the latest polysilicon inventory at 26.20 (a week - on - week decrease of 4.70%), and the silicon wafer inventory at 18.74GW (a week - on - week decrease of 3.10%). The weekly polysilicon production was 24,500.00 tons (a week - on - week increase of 2.94%), and the silicon wafer production was 12.90GW (a week - on - week decrease of 1.53%) [3]. - **Strategy** - The futures market continued to be weak, and the spot trading was average. The fundamentals are weak due to the resumption of production in the southwest during the wet season and the planned start - up in some northwest bases. For unilateral trading, use range - bound operations and sell hedging at high prices. There are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6]. Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.89 yuan/piece (- 0.01 yuan/piece), N - type 210mm was 1.23 yuan/piece (- 0.03 yuan/piece), and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.03 yuan/piece (- 0.02 yuan/piece) [5]. - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells was 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.25 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.26 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells was 0.37 yuan/W [5]. - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.70 - 0.70 yuan/W [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating provided in the report Core View - The domestic PP market declined by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. PP futures fluctuated weakly, suppressing the spot market trading atmosphere. Some petrochemical enterprises lowered their factory prices, weakening the cost - side support for goods. Traders focused on shipping, and their quotes slightly loosened to promote transactions. Downstream terminal orders did not follow up well, and the willingness to purchase raw materials was insufficient. The overall real - trading atmosphere was average, but the low - priced resources in some areas had relatively good transactions [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2509 was 7084, with a daily decline of 0.42%. The trading volume was 268,911, and the open interest decreased by 24,092 [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of the 09 contract was 46 (previous day: 56), and the spread between the 09 - 01 contracts was 58 (previous day: 47) [1] - **Spot Price Data**: In North China, the spot price was 7060 - 7180 yuan/ton (previous day: 7080 - 7230 yuan/ton); in East China, it was 7130 - 7250 yuan/ton (previous day: 7130 - 7300 yuan/ton); in South China, it was 7150 - 7250 yuan/ton (previous day: 7160 - 7300 yuan/ton) [1] Spot News - The domestic PP market declined by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. PP futures' weak fluctuation suppressed the spot market. Some petrochemical enterprises cut prices, weakening cost support. Traders aimed to sell, and downstream demand was weak, but low - priced resources in some areas had good sales [2] Trend Intensity - The PP trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend [2]

期 货 研 究 2025 年 06 月 26 日 铝：高位震荡 氧化铝：小幅反弹 铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铝合金基本面数据更新 | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20355 | 40 | -325 | 225 | -265 | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20345 | - | - | l | l | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2567 | -2 | 20 | 82 | -101 | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 117377 | -19256 | -18225 | -18597 | -1011 | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 254015 | 3930 | 55392 | 49958 | 71086 | | 电解铝 LME铝3M成交量 | 18997 | -9759 | 2000 ...

豆粕生猪：进口成本三连降 豆粕期现齐跌 宋歌 songge@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03112006 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018625 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 美白朗宗 JIDGHI FILTURES | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 東位 | マ日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 6月25日 | 元/吨 | 3030 | 3069 | -39.00 | -1.27% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 6月25日 | 元/吨 | 2723 | 2747 | -24.00 | -0.87% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 6月25日 | 元/吨 | 2993 | 3037 | -44.00 | -1.45% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 6月25日 | 元/吨 | 2327 | 2374 | -47.00 | -1.98% | | | CZCE菜籽柏: 05 ...

玉米系产业日报 2025-06-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | -12 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) 玉米月间价差(9-1):(日,元/吨) -4 玉米淀粉月间价差(7-9):(日,元/吨) | 2377 104 | 吨) | 2732 -48 | 55 19 | | | 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) 675 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | 997031 | | 135312 | 64913 | | 期货市场 | 26902 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米淀粉(日, | | | | | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米(日,手) | -47173 | | -8048 | -3377 | | | 注册仓单量:黄玉米(日,手) -620 注册仓单量:玉米淀粉(日,手) | 219477 | 手) | 23463 | -170 | | | 主力合约CS-C价差(日,元/吨) | 355 ...

菜籽系产业日报 2025-06-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9476 | -96 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2588 | -74 | | | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 74 | -20 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) | 261 | -27 | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 345260 | -27394 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 550961 | 34339 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 25071 | -10058 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -13119 | -34004 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 100 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 24014 | -697 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 706.1 | -18.3 期货收盘 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025 年 06 月 25 日 铝：偏弱运行 氧化铝：底部震荡 铝合金：淡季走深 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20315 | -50 | -145 | 130 | -315 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20270 | ー | l | l | l | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2568 | -24 | 23 | ୧୨ | -55 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 136633 | -44423 | 34935 | -33905 | 20834 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 250085 | -3512 | 51141 | 49202 | ...