Market Overview - The A-share market showed a positive trend today, with major indices mostly rising. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.72% to close at 3559.72 points, while the Shenzhen Component rose by 0.86% to 11007.49 points. The ChiNext Index saw a slight increase of 0.87%, closing at 2296.88 points. Overall, 4002 stocks rose, 1291 fell, and 121 remained unchanged, with a total trading volume of 17000 billion yuan, an increase of 1289.37 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][2]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, all sectors except for banking, comprehensive, computer, and home appliances experienced gains today. The leading sectors included construction materials, construction decoration, steel, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and coal [1]. - The top-performing concept sectors included cement manufacturing, water conservancy and hydropower construction, major infrastructure projects in the west, excavators, robotics, rare earths, and various infrastructure-related sectors [2].

Market Trends & Industry Dynamics - China's rare earth magnet exports surged by 660% in June 2025, but only reached half of the normal supply [1] - China is quietly issuing rare earth quotas but blocking data for national security reasons, posing a potential crisis for the electric vehicle industry [1] Investment Opportunities & Potential Risks - Tesla's stock price reached $329.65, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 181.44, leading to questions of overvaluation [1] - Using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model, the valuation of Tesla's automotive, Robotaxi, and Optimus robot businesses could potentially reach $238 trillion by 2035 [1] Company & Key People - Trump threatened to terminate billions of dollars in contracts with SpaceX, stemming from disagreements over economic policies and SpaceX's role with NASA [1] - Musk unexpectedly voiced support for Trump, denouncing fake news allegations [1] Products & Services - JOWUA offers a 5% discount with the code BIGFISH95 on products such as hidden screen storage bases, car headrests, CCS2 dual-use mobile chargers (32A/7kW) with NEMA 14-50 adapters, folding electric scooters, and tire inflator charging kits [1]

Group 1 - Northern Rare Earth (600111) has seen its stock price increase by 6.49% [1] - The Rare Earth ETF (159713) holds 13.88% of Northern Rare Earth, with its current increase at 3.06% [1] - The stock has experienced three consecutive days of gains, reaching a 120-day high [1] Group 2 - The trading volume for Northern Rare Earth reached 65.19 million yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 21.09%, adding 9.35 million shares [1]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a steady rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3534.48 points, up by 0.5%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 10913.84 points, up by 0.37% [1][10] - A total of 22 out of 30 sectors in the CITIC first-level industry rose, with non-ferrous metals, steel, and basic chemicals leading the gains, while media, comprehensive finance, and electronics saw significant declines [1][10] - The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 15,933 billion yuan, showing a slight increase compared to the previous day [1][10] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down by 0.32%, the S&P 500 down by 0.01%, and the Nasdaq up by 0.05% [2][10] - Tesla's stock rose over 3%, while 3M and American Express saw declines of more than 3% and 2%, respectively [2][10] - Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with Hesai Technology increasing by over 8% [2][10] Key News - The opening ceremony for the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project was attended by Li Qiang, marking the commencement of the project [3][12] - A total of 16 central enterprises signed 75 industrial project investment agreements with the Tibet Autonomous Region, amounting to 317.54 billion yuan, focusing on clean energy, green minerals, and infrastructure [11][14] - The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo concluded in Beijing, with over 1,200 participating enterprises and institutions, and more than 60,000 cooperation agreements reached [15]

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth of China's retail sales, which are approximately 80% of the United States in absolute terms, and exceed the US in terms of purchasing power by 1.6 times according to World Bank data [4] - The establishment of the new state-owned enterprise, China Yajiang Group, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan, indicates a strong push for infrastructure and industrial development [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation in future industries such as humanoid robots, metaverse, and brain-computer interfaces, as promoted by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [6] Industry Updates - The National Export Control Work Coordination Mechanism has initiated a special action to combat the smuggling of strategic minerals, impacting related stocks such as Northern Rare Earth and Dongfang Zuoye [6] - The report notes that the market is experiencing a shift towards value investing, with large-cap stocks showing a trend of upward movement, replacing pure concept speculation [10] - The rare earth sector is leading the market rally, driven by government policies on illegal exports and new mineral discoveries, alongside increased demand for humanoid robots [10] Company Focus - China Unicom is exploring the layout of a 100,000-card computing cluster, aiming for a computing scale of 45 EFLOPS by the end of the year [8] - Betta Pharmaceuticals is advancing its clinical projects targeting the KRAS gene, with plans to submit clinical trial applications soon [8] - Luxshare Precision has commenced construction of its robotics headquarters project in Changshu, with a total investment of 5 billion yuan, expected to achieve an annual output value of 10 billion yuan upon reaching full production [8] - Yinlun Machinery has delivered its liquid cooling system for data centers as scheduled, with expectations for accelerated order acquisition due to high investments in digital energy thermal management [8]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has effectively broken through the "turning loss resistance level" of approximately 3450 points, indicating a bullish market phase, although making profits remains challenging [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Historical data suggests that when the market breaks through the turning loss resistance level, it often enters a bull market phase driven by fundamental improvements, particularly in corporate earnings [3]. - The current market sentiment has shifted from loss recovery to profit expectation, leading to increased investor confidence and potential for further capital inflow into stocks and funds [3]. - The A-share market has seen new concepts emerging, such as the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project and assessments of aging petrochemical facilities, indicating evolving investment themes [1][16]. Group 2: Sector Highlights - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project officially commenced on July 19, 2025, with significant government backing, which may enhance investment opportunities in the hydropower sector [10]. - The active participation of Huawei in the AI computing sector is highlighted by its upcoming showcase at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference, which could drive interest in related technology stocks [7][8]. - Recent price increases in rare earth metals have been noted, with auction prices reaching 572,000 yuan per ton, indicating a potential investment opportunity in the materials sector [9]. Group 3: Financial Trends - The A-share market experienced a net sell-off of 33.514 billion yuan, marking the largest weekly net sell-off in four weeks, with significant outflows from sectors such as non-bank financials and media [25]. - Conversely, the automotive sector attracted a net inflow of 12.105 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest in this industry [26]. - The overall market sentiment reflects a mixed outlook, with certain sectors like chemicals and automobiles showing signs of recovery, while others remain in decline [30][31]. Group 4: Industry Insights - The petrochemical industry is undergoing assessments of aging facilities, with a significant portion of production capacity being over 20 years old, which may lead to modernization efforts and investment opportunities [16][17]. - The government is focusing on high-quality development in the non-ferrous metals sector, emphasizing resource efficiency and deep processing to enhance supply quality [18]. - The solar industry has seen a notable increase in silicon wafer prices, with some products experiencing price hikes of up to 22.09%, indicating a bullish trend in renewable energy investments [19].

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年7月18日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 延续偏强，预计阶段性调整结束 市场回顾 今日股指偏强运行，大盘股指走势强于中小盘股指。从资金面来看，两市成交额上涨316.74亿元。期指均放 量上涨。 重要资讯 1. 美国6月零售销售环比增长0.6%，高于市场预期的0.1%，前值为下降0.9%。分析指出，美国6月零售销售 反弹强于预期，部分增长可能反映出受关税影响的部分商品价格上涨。 2. 商务部："十五五"期间将继续减少服务消费领域的限制性措施。 3. 中新社7月17日从中国地质大学获悉，该校联合内蒙古自治区地质调查研究院，在内蒙古白云鄂博矿床主 矿矿段的矿体中部，发现一种新稀土矿物，命名为"钕黄河矿"。 核心观点 今日股指延续偏强运行，两市成交额小幅放量，大盘股指偏强。板块方面，受一则新稀土矿物被发现消息影 响，今日稀土板块领涨。从期货指标来看，由于近月合约今日到期基差变动幅度大增，因此抛开近月合约情 况，今日各品种期指合约基差均上涨，市场情绪持续向好。目前市场无明显利空信息，预计此轮阶段性调整 结束 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a positive trend today, with major indices mostly rising. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.50% to close at 3534.48 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.37% to 10913.84 points, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.34% to finish at 2277.15 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1571 billion yuan, an increase of 31.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][14]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the leading sectors included non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, steel, coal, and transportation, with respective increases of 2.10%, 1.36%, 1.34%, 0.94%, and 0.90%. Conversely, the media, electronics, light manufacturing, public utilities, and telecommunications sectors experienced declines, with decreases of 0.98%, 0.49%, 0.41%, 0.35%, and 0.31% respectively [1][14]. Concept Sector Performance - The top-performing concept sectors today included rare earths, rare metals, lithium mining, rare earth permanent magnets, and small metals, among others. Notable sectors that experienced pullbacks included marketing communication, dairy, and online gaming [2][11].

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains relatively stable, with the blast furnace operating rate maintaining at 0.7% year-on-year [2][5][8] - The chemical production chain shows a slight decline, with soda ash and PTA operating rates down by 2.6 percentage points to 6% and 0.9 percentage points to 1.3% respectively [2][15] - The automotive sector's semi-steel tire operating rate is still below last year's level, up by 2.7 percentage points to -6.3% [2][15] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows a mixed performance, with the nationwide grinding operating rate down by 2.4 percentage points to 3.7% [2][27] - Cement shipment rates remain low, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2% to 3% [2][27] - Asphalt operating rates have seen a recovery, up by 0.6 percentage points to 7.4% [2][35] Group 3: Real Estate Transactions - Real estate transactions are at a low point, with the average daily transaction area for new homes down by 19.1% year-on-year, despite a 13.1% increase [2][44] - First-tier cities continue to see a decline in transactions, down by 18.6% to 39.9% [2][44] - Third-tier cities show significant improvement, with transaction volumes up by 72.4% to 17% [2][44] Group 4: Transportation and Shipping - National railway and highway freight volumes have decreased, with year-on-year declines of 1.3% to 1.2% and 0.9% to 0.8% respectively [2][54] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput have also shown a decline, down by 9.3% to 6.8% and 4.7% to 0.9% respectively [2][54] - The overall intensity of human mobility remains high, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 2% to 12.6% [2][63] Group 5: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are mixed, with pork and vegetable prices rising by 0.1% and 0.8% respectively, while egg and fruit prices fell by 2.2% and 0.1% [3][85] - Industrial product prices have generally increased, with the South China industrial price index rising by 1.1% [3][93] - The energy and chemical price index increased by 1.3%, while the metal price index rose by 0.7% [3][93]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the market rotation is in a consolidation phase, with a focus on core assets in the Beijing Stock Exchange (北交所) related to technology and new consumption [10][15]. - The North Exchange 50 Index increased by 0.41%, while the specialized index rose by 0.07%. However, the average daily trading volume decreased by 23% [10][22]. - The report highlights a shift in A-share market hotspots from large-cap bank stocks to mid-cap core assets, with significant gains in sectors such as real estate, steel, building materials, and power equipment [10][11]. Group 2 - The report notes that 178 stocks in the North Exchange rose, while 87 fell, resulting in a rise-to-fall ratio of 2.05. The top gainers included Guoyi Bidding (+70.62%) and Benlang New Materials (+35.14%) [41][42]. - The average PE (TTM) for the North Exchange is reported at 96.79 times, with a median of 52.52 times, indicating a higher valuation compared to other exchanges [27][28]. - The trading volume for the North Exchange was 50.89 billion shares, with a trading value of 107.76 billion yuan, both showing a decrease compared to the previous week [28][22]. Group 3 - The report mentions that there were no new listings on the North Exchange this week, with a total of 268 companies currently listed [33][38]. - The new three-board market saw 6 new listings and 2 delistings, with a total of 6063 companies listed as of July 11, 2025 [52][54]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring key companies such as Jinbo Biology, Norseland, and Kangbit, which are considered core assets in the North Exchange [15].