Core Viewpoint - Bank of America anticipates significant capital inflows into emerging markets at the beginning of next year, driven by a shift of funds away from U.S. assets [1] Group 1: Emerging Market Outlook - Emerging markets are showing resilience, leading to expectations of increased capital inflows [1] - Optimism is expected to rise as the impact of trade tensions is perceived to be limited [1] - Even small-scale diversified investment flows from the U.S. could have a substantial effect on emerging markets [1] Group 2: Investment Drivers - Factors contributing to the positive outlook for emerging markets include a weaker dollar, potential for further interest rate cuts by central banks, and historically low allocation of global funds to emerging markets [1] - Key beneficiaries of foreign capital inflows are identified as Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Turkey, and Poland [1]

Core Viewpoint - Emerging markets are expected to see a significant inflow of funds in early next year, driven by signs of resilience in these economies and a shift of capital away from U.S. assets [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - There are increasing signs that emerging economies are resilient, which is likely to boost investor confidence [1] - The impact of trade tensions on the economy is expected to be limited, leading to a more optimistic outlook for early next year [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The emerging market asset class is anticipated to benefit from a weaker dollar and the potential for further interest rate cuts by central banks [1] - Global funds are currently underweight in emerging markets, indicating a historical low allocation that could change with the anticipated inflow [1]

Core Viewpoint - The price of silver futures in Shanghai surged, breaking the 10,000 yuan per kilogram mark, reaching a historical high since the contract's inception, driven by factors such as catch-up demand, supply-demand dynamics, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] Group 1: Price Movement - On September 12, the Shanghai silver main contract price rose significantly, closing at 10,035 yuan per kilogram, with a gain of 2.36% [1] - The contract reached an intraday high above 10,000 yuan per kilogram, marking a record high for the contract [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Price - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to multiple factors: 1. Catch-up demand relative to gold, with many investors buying silver for arbitrage [1] 2. Clear industrial demand driven by the growth of solar panel production [1] 3. A decline in the credibility of the US dollar, prompting sovereign nations to seek new monetary anchors, which supports the rise in gold prices and consequently silver [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Impact - Expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September are seen as supportive for precious metal prices, with a weaker dollar likely to boost gold and silver prices [2] - The differentiation between industrial metals and precious metals is noted, where precious metals like gold and silver may benefit from being perceived as safe-haven assets, while industrial metals could face adverse effects [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current surge in global gold prices, reaching historical highs, raises questions about whether it is a suitable time to invest in gold, with various factors contributing to this trend [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Global gold prices, including domestic physical gold, futures, and international London gold, are consistently hitting historical highs, with Hong Kong's gold trading volume also reaching record levels [1]. - The recent U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, moving from a 25 basis point reduction to a 50 basis point reduction, have provided strong support for gold prices [1]. - The weakening U.S. dollar, coupled with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has driven investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset [1]. Group 2: Inflation and Central Bank Actions - Persistent global inflation, economic contraction, and currency depreciation are underlying factors supporting the long-term rise in gold prices, with central banks worldwide, including China's, continuously increasing their gold reserves [1]. - The market sentiment indicates that while current conditions favor gold, there is a cautionary note that once positive news is fully priced in, it could lead to a downturn [3]. Group 3: Price Predictions and Market Sentiment - Short-term predictions suggest that gold could reach a pressure point of $3,700 per ounce, but there is a possibility of a technical adjustment thereafter, with a support range between $3,700 and $3,550 [3][4]. - The current market environment is characterized by a struggle between bullish and bearish sentiments, as evidenced by recent fluctuations in international gold prices [4].

Core Viewpoint - UBS significantly raises its gold price forecast, citing expectations of Federal Reserve easing, a weaker dollar, and geopolitical risks as factors that indicate the gold bull market is far from over [1] Price Forecast - UBS has increased its gold price target for the end of 2025 by $300 to $3,800 per ounce and raised its mid-2026 forecast by $200 to $3,900 per ounce [1] - The gold market has shown strong upward momentum, reaching a historical high of $3,673.95 per ounce recently, with a year-to-date increase of over 39% [1] Investment Demand - UBS's analysis indicates a rapid increase in investment demand for gold, predicting that total holdings in gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will exceed 3,900 tons by the end of 2025, nearing the historical record of 3,915 tons set in October 2020 [2] Macro Environment - The core logic behind UBS's bullish outlook on gold is based on macroeconomic conditions, anticipating that the Federal Reserve will enter a rate-cutting cycle, which would weaken the dollar and enhance the appeal of gold priced in dollars [3] - Geopolitical risks and the policy divergence between the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve are key factors boosting gold's safe-haven value [3] - The report highlights President Trump's preference for low interest rates as a supportive factor for gold prices, as gold traditionally performs well in low-rate environments [3] Central Bank Demand - Global central bank demand for gold is expected to remain strong, with UBS forecasting purchases to be between 900 to 950 tons this year, slightly below last year's record of over 1,000 tons, indicating continued confidence in gold as a reserve asset [3]

矿业股在开盘交易中领涨富时100指数。黄金和白银开采商Fresnillo涨幅居前，股价上涨约4%。英美资 源、Endeavour Mining和嘉能可均上涨约2%。金价上涨0.5%，至每盎司3653美元；银价上涨1.3%，至 每盎司42.1美元。Swissquote Bank分析师Ipek Ozkardeskaya表示，金价受益于投资者押注美联储将开始 降息、美元走弱以及持续的地缘政治紧张局势。她补充称，美国周四公布的经济数据已为美联储下周降 息开了"绿灯"。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold has about 5% upside potential by 2025, driven by strong central bank purchases and changing investor perceptions of gold as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold has risen over 38% this year, while silver has increased by 42%, indicating significant market changes [1]. - Central bank gold purchases are strong, with gold's share in reserves surpassing U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time since 1996, reinforcing gold's long-term value [1]. - In August alone, gold ETFs saw inflows of $5 billion, marking the highest year-to-date inflow since 2020, reflecting renewed interest from institutional investors [1]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Despite being a non-yielding asset, gold's appeal remains resilient as inflation in major economies exceeds targets, with investors betting on upcoming interest rate cuts by central banks, which could further boost gold prices [1][2]. - Morgan Stanley expects gold prices to reach a peak of $3,800 per ounce by the end of the year [1]. Group 3: Jewelry Demand and Market Risks - Jewelry demand, which constitutes 40% of gold demand and 34% of silver demand, is showing signs of fatigue, with Q2 gold jewelry demand hitting the lowest level since Q3 2020 due to high prices [2]. - The outlook for jewelry demand remains uncertain, which could impact the overall precious metals market [2]. Group 4: Future Projections and Currency Impact - Morgan Stanley's economists predict that the Federal Reserve will initiate its first rate cut since December 2024 in September, historically leading to average price increases of 6% for gold and 4% for silver within 60 days [2]. - A weaker U.S. dollar is expected to enhance gold's affordability in global markets, with signs of improved gold and silver imports in India as the country plans tax reforms [2].

智通财经APP获悉，瑞银最新报告指出，在全球经济放缓、美联储政策转向、美元走弱的大背景下，新 兴市场正迎来战术性配置窗口，尤其是中国股市，将领跑本轮反弹。 瑞银预计，美联储将在2024年底前降息100个基点，远超目前市场定价的68个基点。这一宽松预期将推 动美元走弱，从而为新兴市场资产提供支撑。历史数据显示，美元每贬值1%，新兴市场股市平均上涨 3%。此外，美国实际收益率的下降、新兴市场自身货币政策的宽松，以及相对美股的估值折扣，均为 新兴市场资产提供了战术性机会。 在固收策略方面，瑞银强调，中国与其他新兴市场国家的增长与通胀周期正在脱钩。中国出口强劲、财 政整固力度大，使其在全球利率下行周期中表现相对独立。这也解释了为何欧洲、日本等发达市场的30 年期国债收益率大跌，对新兴市场市场影响有限，墨西哥和泰国的30年期国债收益率年内反而下跌超过 125个基点。 不过，瑞银也提醒，美元进一步走弱可能需以美国经济衰退预期升温为代价，这可能对当前流行的新兴 市场套利交易构成挑战。尤其是中国信贷增长、新兴市场出口表现和整体风险偏好已被提前兑现，市场 的上行空间可能受限。 瑞银预计，新兴市场整体通胀将继续回落，支持各国央行 ...

例如，印度和越南正分别在服务业和制造业领域取得良好发展，墨西哥和巴西展现出货币政策的纪律 性，智利强大的金融体系则为其增加了稳定性。此外，部分新兴市场的通胀率已回落至新冠疫情前水 平，降息周期已经开启。比如，墨西哥今年已降息五次，印尼降息四次，波兰降息三次。 贝莱德智库提到，美联储即将实施降息，尽管其认为降息幅度有限，但这将为新兴市场央行提供更多的 货币政策宽松空间，因为跟随美联储的政策步伐可以降低本国货币贬值的风险。该机构认为，当前是锁 定匈牙利、捷克、南非、巴西、墨西哥和哥伦比亚的本币债券收益率的较好机会。 贝莱德智库发文称，今年以来新兴市场表现亮眼。固收方面，全球新兴市场债券回报率近9%，而美国 国债回报率仅为4.5%。股票方面，MSCI新兴市场指数上涨20%，远超代表发达市场的MSCI世界指数 14%的涨幅。美元走弱、经济韧性及颠覆性趋势共同驱动了新兴市场的表现。由于不同国家的表现存在 分化，因此需要进行优选布局。贝莱德智库对整体新兴市场股票持中性观点，同时挖掘具有亮点的领 域，并看好新兴市场本币债券。 美元走弱推动了今年新兴市场资产的回报增长。相关数据显示，今年美元对主要货币汇率贬值约10%， 而许 ...

最近一段时间呢就是美元走得很弱，就是因为美国的这个就业数据啊非常的不好，然后美国现在各种投 行都是在唱空美元，实际上9月降息的预期就非常的大。和讯投顾史月波分析，几个关键点，一个是周 四的晚上，就是咱们的凌晨，美国那边要最后公布一个数据，就是CPI当然如果它特别特别高，那可能 对降息可能会产生影响。那如果还算正常，那大概率本月就会降息，那么降息的最后的决策时间是在19 号的凌晨2点的那个议息会议，就是本周四和下周五是期指交割。那么市场现在就是美国那边呢就是对 于美债最近是很厉害，就是它在交易美联储降息的预期息越往下降，债的需求越大，所以无论是30年的 还是10年期的，美债最近都是走牛。 ...