Group 1 - The Brazilian stock index rose by 0.59%, while the Brazilian real appreciated by 0.22% against the US dollar, closing at 5.5673 reais [1] - Brazilian President Lula stated that there is currently no tariff war between Brazil and the United States [1] - The potential for a trade war exists if US President Trump does not change his attitude towards Brazil [1]

| 能源 日报 | /// > 国経期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年07月21日 | 操作评级 | | | | 高明宇 首席分析师 | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | | | F0302201 Z0012038 | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | 李祖智 中级分析师 | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | | F3063857 Z0016599 | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | | | 【原油】 隔夜国际油价反弹,SC09合约日内涨2.57%。伊拉克能源官员声明称近期无人机袭击已导致库尔德斯坦无油产 量减少14-15万桶/天，欧盟通过第18轮对俄罗斯能源制裁方案,供应担忧有所升温。但考虑到近期原油现货升 贴水及月差均未进一步走强,或显示强现实因素对油价的上行驱动减弱,7月贸易战的利空风险依然存在，油价 短期或难以突破震荡格局。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油 ...

明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 | | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | 2025/7/21 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | | | 环比 | | | | EC主力收盘价 72.3↑ EC次主力收盘价 | 2291.900 | | 1592.7 | | -38.40↓ | | 期货盘面 | EC2508-EC2510价差 +46.30↑ EC2508-EC2512价差 | 699.20 | | 549.70 | | +74.80↑ | | | EC合约基差 -47.44↓ | 108.60 | | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | -879↓ | 14037 | | | | | | | SCF ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest holdings of Zhu Shaoxing's fund, FuGuo TianHui Selected Growth Mixed Fund, show significant changes in stock positions and reflect the current market conditions and investment strategies [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Holdings - As of the end of Q2 2025, Zhu Shaoxing's stock position is at 94.05%, with the top ten holdings accounting for 34.98% of the fund's net value [2]. - The top ten holdings include Guizhou Moutai, Ningbo Bank, Spring Power, Midea Group, Ruifeng New Materials, CATL, Jerry Holdings, Binjiang Group, Guangdong Hongda, and Blue Sky Technology [2]. - New entries in the top ten holdings for Q2 include Jerry Holdings, Guangdong Hongda, and Blue Sky Technology, while positions in Ningbo Bank, Spring Power, Midea Group, CATL, and Binjiang Group were reduced [2]. Group 2: Market Analysis - In Q2, the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.25%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.34%, following a period of significant market volatility due to escalating trade tensions [3]. - The market experienced a recovery after a sharp decline caused by trade conflicts, with expectations of a negotiated resolution to the trade issues [3]. - The current A-share market is viewed as attractive in terms of long-term valuation, with equity assets positioned well in terms of risk-reward [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The fund aims to focus on high-quality stocks with strong corporate governance and management, believing these companies are more likely to create value for investors in the future [4]. - The investment strategy emphasizes patience in collecting shares of companies with significant growth potential, rather than attempting to predict short-term market trends [4]. - The fund's performance is linked to sharing the capital market gains derived from the growth of the underlying companies [4].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S.-EU trade negotiations are at a stalemate, with the U.S. imposing a hard deadline of August 1 for new tariffs unless a trade agreement is reached [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Position - U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross emphasized that new tariffs on the EU will begin on August 1, marking a firm deadline for negotiations [1][2]. - The U.S. is pushing for a higher baseline tariff of 15% or more, which exceeds the previously accepted 10% by the EU [3][4]. - The U.S. administration has repeatedly delayed the tariff deadline, but the latest statement indicates no further extensions will be granted [2]. Group 2: EU Response - The EU is preparing for a robust countermeasure, including potential tariffs on over $100 billion worth of U.S. exports and the use of unprecedented "Anti-Coercion Instrument" (ACI) to respond to U.S. economic pressure [5]. - Germany, traditionally inclined towards a quick agreement with the U.S., has shifted its stance to support a stronger response alongside France and other member states [4][5]. - The EU had previously been close to an agreement that included a 10% baseline tariff and increased purchases of U.S. energy products and semiconductors, but negotiations have stalled due to U.S. demands for higher tariffs [3][4].

Group 1 - The current US-China confrontation is likened to an unexpected encounter battle, where both sides are unprepared and the initial situation is chaotic [1] - The US, despite its intentions to contain China, is not fully prepared for the confrontation due to internal issues such as hollowed-out industries and high debt [2][4] - China has been focused on peaceful development and gradually improving its industrial chain, benefiting from its relationship with the US in the past [2][4] Group 2 - The trade war initiated by the US is just the beginning, as the global market remains resilient and dependent on Chinese goods [6] - The US's attempts to decouple from China have proven ineffective, with ongoing trade between the two nations [6] - The technology war, particularly against companies like Huawei, has inadvertently spurred China's technological independence and innovation [6][7] Group 3 - The US's financial dominance is being challenged as its frequent use of sanctions and asset seizures raises global concerns about the safety of holding wealth in US dollars [9] - The rise of alternative payment systems, such as the digital yuan and cross-border payment systems, indicates a shift towards de-dollarization [9][10] - The ongoing battles in trade, technology, and finance represent a broader restructuring of global economic rules rather than isolated conflicts [10] Group 4 - The current standoff indicates that the US's strategies have not succeeded in undermining China, which has developed strong domestic markets and financial defenses [11] - The confrontation has evolved into a protracted struggle, emphasizing the importance of internal capabilities for both nations [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complex interplay between the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, rising inflation, and geopolitical tensions, highlighting the challenges faced by the U.S. economy and the potential implications for global markets. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Dallas Fed President Logan's hawkish comments indicate that interest rates must remain restrictive for at least 6 to 12 months, dampening market hopes for rate cuts [3] - The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year, marking a four-month high, with core CPI increasing by 2.9%, exceeding the Fed's 2% target [3] - The internal divisions within the Fed are evident, with some officials advocating for immediate rate cuts while others express concerns about inflation driven by tariffs [7] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The "super core inflation" excluding food, energy, and housing rose by 0.12%, significantly higher than the previous months, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [7] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed no month-on-month growth, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024, suggesting a complex inflation landscape [9] - The U.S. Treasury's net issuance of bonds reached $1.2 trillion in Q2, a record for non-crisis periods, indicating significant supply pressure in the bond market [9] Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Policies - The U.S. government announced a 19% tariff on Indonesian products, escalating trade tensions, while Mexico's president criticized U.S. policies regarding fentanyl [4] - The EU is preparing to impose additional tariffs on $84 billion worth of U.S. imports if trade negotiations fail, reflecting rising global trade tensions [9] - Trump's administration's actions, including potential tariffs on Russia, further complicate the global trade landscape [9] Group 4: Market Reactions and Investor Sentiment - Following the announcement of the PPI, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell, and the dollar index dropped, indicating cautious investor sentiment regarding inflation [9] - Gold prices experienced volatility, reflecting market uncertainty and potential reactions to changes in Fed leadership [10] - The market's response to Trump's potential dismissal of Powell was marked by significant fluctuations, highlighting the sensitivity of financial markets to political developments [8][10]

– 欧盟各国代表最快本周开会，制定在贸易谈判失败的情况下对美反制方案。美国据悉要求对几乎所有欧盟商品征收10%以上的统一关税，仅对航空等少数 产品给予豁免。 国际新闻 – 特朗普政府据悉将在未来两周推进特定行业关税计划，准备依次宣布对铜、木材、芯片、关键矿产和药品的关税安排。 | 12 7 0 | 4 1.28096 | 0.28078 4 | 0 11 6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0 | . | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | HOSE | Profit | Commissions Page | BARROO DESECRETE | SHAR | Tomore There | 80 | -56.70 | | | | | | | | | | | DOW | -567.0 | -0.51 | 0.00 | 274,06 | 0 | 309. ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news highlights the decline of the USD/JPY exchange rate, currently trading around 148, influenced by rising inflation in Japan and potential changes in monetary policy by the Bank of Japan [1] - Tokyo's core CPI rose by 3.6% year-on-year, marking a two-year high, which strengthens market expectations for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [1] - The U.S. decision to impose a 25% tariff on Japanese goods, particularly automobiles, casts a shadow over Japan's economic outlook, potentially limiting export growth and overall economic performance [1] Group 2 - The USD/JPY has key support levels between 148.00 and 148.70, with a potential drop below 148.70 leading to a retest of earlier upward trends or the 147.54 level [2] - Resistance levels are identified at the 200-day moving average (149.63) and the psychological level of 150.00, with a further target at the March high of 151.30 if momentum continues [2] - Current indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD show bullish signals, suggesting a short-term upward momentum, with a recommendation for buying on dips while being cautious of potential overbought conditions near 151.30 [2]

Report Summary Investment Rating - The investment rating for the LLDPE industry is "interval shock" [1] Core View - In the context of anti - inflation in the US and anti - deflation in China, plastics are in an interval shock market. The fundamentals of polyethylene have not improved significantly, with increasing supply pressure and weak demand, so the later trend pressure is still large [2] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures: The closing price of L2509 yesterday was 7216, with a daily increase of 0.10%. The trading volume was 262,918, and the open interest decreased by 8562 [1] - Basis and Spread: The basis of the 09 contract was - 136 yesterday, and the 09 - 01 contract spread was - 27 [1] - Spot Prices: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 7080 yuan/ton, 7150 yuan/ton, and 7250 yuan/ton respectively yesterday [1] 2. Spot News - The market price of LLDPE fluctuated slightly, with a range of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The linear futures opened higher and fluctuated, then declined in the afternoon. The market atmosphere was average, and downstream demand was limited [1] 3. Market Condition Analysis - Macro: Domestically, the overall commodity sentiment is strong due to anti - involution, while externally, there is a risk of an unexpected trade war in August. Plastics are in an interval shock market [2] - Supply: In July, the maintenance volume will be less than that in June. The new production capacity of domestic PE devices in the third quarter is expected to be 1.6 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers is 78.68%, an increase of 0.89 percentage points [2] - Demand: The downstream of polyethylene is in the off - season. Terminal orders are weak, and enterprises are cautious in stocking. The overall start - up rate of the shed film industry is low, and the procurement enthusiasm of agricultural film dealers is not high [3] 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]