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油料产业风险管理日报-20250624
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 13:40
Report Overview - The report is the Oilseed Industry Risk Management Daily, dated June 24, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The hype sentiment in the external market's previous trading of the oil logic has weakened with the decline of crude oil. The US soybean is approaching the time - node for confirming the planting area, and the weather conditions in the producing areas should be continuously monitored after the announcement. The real - world pressure in the domestic market will continue to suppress the upward space of the near - month spot and the futures market, while the supply gap and weather - related speculation logic for the far - month contracts still exist. Therefore, reverse spreads and buying far - month contracts on dips are suitable strategies [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 5.9%. For rapeseed meal, the price range is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1551 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.1961 [3] - **Hedging Strategies**: - For traders with high protein inventory worried about falling meal prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] - Feed mills with low regular purchase inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in purchase costs in advance [3] - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] Core Contradictions - The external market's oil - trading logic hype has weakened with the decline of crude oil. The US soybean is approaching the planting - area confirmation time. In the domestic market, near - month prices are suppressed by real - world pressure, while far - month contracts have supply - gap and weather - speculation factors [4] 利多解读 - No content provided 利空解读 - Supply - side pressure is the main factor suppressing the spot market. As the soybean meal 07 contract approaches the delivery month, the spot pressure will be reflected in the near - month futures through warehouse - receipt registration, likely leading to a weak performance of the soybean meal 09 contract. The supply of soybean raw materials is abundant, oil - mill operating rates are rising, and extraction has increased month - on - month, with some areas urging提货 [6] - In terms of arrivals, 11.5 million tons are expected in July and 9.5 million tons in August. Supply in the third quarter remains abundant, and the supply gap in the fourth quarter depends on Sino - US relations [6] - Rapeseed meal inventory is being depleted slowly, and the downstream finds adding rapeseed meal lack cost - effectiveness. The market's reaction to the news of the WTO establishing a panel to investigate Sino - Canadian tariff issues is inelastic, and the rapeseed meal market will mainly follow the soybean meal market with a weak outlook [6] Futures Price - **Soybean Meal Futures**: The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3069, down 4 (- 0.13%); soybean meal 05 is 2747, down 6 (- 0.22%); soybean meal 09 is 3037, unchanged (0%) [7] - **Rapeseed Meal Futures**: The closing price of rapeseed meal 01 is 2374, down 4 (- 0.17%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2375, down 10 (- 0.42%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2662, up 5 (0.19%) [10] - **Other Futures**: The closing price of CBOT yellow soybeans is 1046.5, unchanged (0%); the offshore RMB is 7.1801, down 0.0201 (- 0.28%) [10] Spread - **Soybean Meal Spread**: M01 - 05 is 322, up 2; M05 - 09 is - 290, down 6; M09 - 01 is - 32, up 4 [11] - **Rapeseed Meal Spread**: RM01 - 05 is - 1, up 6; RM05 - 09 is - 287, down 15; RM09 - 01 is 288, up 9 [11] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 2900, down 20, and the basis is - 137, down 20. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2619, down 2, and the basis is - 38, up 20. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 281, down 20, and the futures spread is 375, down 5 [11] Import Cost and Profit - **Import Cost**: The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4632.1082 yuan/ton, up 6.4408 yuan/ton and down 0.0108 yuan/ton week - on - week. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3830.16 yuan/ton, down 39.56 yuan/ton and up 11.47 yuan/ton week - on - week [12] - **Profit**: The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 777.3132 yuan/ton, up 6.4408 yuan/ton and up 18.4175 yuan/ton week - on - week. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 202.901 yuan/ton, down 15.9385 yuan/ton and down 0.152 yuan/ton week - on - week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the futures market is 125 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton and up 111 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot profit is 118 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton and up 110 yuan/ton week - on - week [12]
中国驻美大使谢锋:中国的主权安全发展利益是不可逾越的红线,相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢是必须恪守的原则
news flash· 2025-06-19 05:36
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ambassador to the U.S., Xie Feng, emphasized that China's sovereignty, security, and development interests are non-negotiable red lines, advocating for mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation as essential principles in U.S.-China relations [1] Group 1: Current State of U.S.-China Relations - U.S.-China relations are at a critical juncture, presenting two distinct paths: cooperation for mutual benefit or mutual harm [1] - The recent phone call between President Xi Jinping and President Trump was highlighted as a pivotal moment for steering U.S.-China relations in the right direction [1] Group 2: Economic Cooperation - Economic cooperation has been described as the ballast of U.S.-China relations, with the business community playing a vital role in practical cooperation [1] - The U.S.-China Trade National Committee is recognized as a leader in fostering economic relations between the two countries [1]
中国驻美大使谢锋:中国的主权安全发展利益是不可逾越的红线
news flash· 2025-06-19 05:35
中国驻美大使谢锋:中国的主权安全发展利益是不可逾越的红线 金十数据6月19日讯,据中国驻美大使馆网站消息,2025年6月18日,中国驻美国大使谢锋应邀出席美中 贸易全国委员会2025年度庆典晚宴并发表演讲。谢锋指出,当前中美关系正处在关键节点,合作共赢还 是两败俱伤,是摆在我们面前两条截然不同的航道。我们要坚持元首战略引领,不折不扣落实两国元首 通话重要共识。坚持对话合作正确方向,增进外交、经贸、军队、执法等各领域交流。中方有诚意但讲 原则,中国的主权安全发展利益是不可逾越的红线,相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢是必须恪守的原 则。希望美方同中方相向而行,做伙伴而非当对手,彼此成就而非相互伤害,共同探索新时期中美正确 相处之道。 (日月谭天) ...
“特朗普和马斯克闹掰,只会让中国更加不信任美国总统”
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-06-17 08:30
在特朗普开启第二个总统任期后,马斯克成为其政府中最引人瞩目的人物之一。但随着美国政府效率部 工作和特朗普关税政策的推进,他和特朗普阁僚之间的矛盾不断升级。 6月初,马斯克公开抨击特朗普的"大而美"税改法案,两人的矛盾被摆上台面。马斯克随后曝出关于特 朗普的"猛料",特朗普则一度威胁要取消特斯拉的政府补贴与合同。 【文/观察者网 王恺雯】美国总统特朗普和特斯拉首席执行官马斯克近期因美国税改法案公开撕破脸。 香港《南华早报》6月17日刊文,指出特朗普对待昔日盟友马斯克的方式凸显了他的不可预测性,这会 加深中国对他的怀疑,从而在同美国打交道时更为谨慎。 马斯克是特朗普2024年总统竞选的最大的政治捐助者,两人的关系在特朗普第二次竞选总统时进入了一 段"蜜月期",马斯克曾称自己是特朗普的"第一拍档"(first buddy)。 虽然双方的争执后来有所缓和,马斯克也主动"示好",但《南华早报》指出,此事可能加深了中国人对 特朗普是一个反复无常、出尔反尔政客的印象。外交观察人士认为,这意味着中国在和特朗普打交道时 会保持警惕和谨慎。 特朗普去年胜选后,他多次与马斯克一起接见来访的外国领导人。 社交媒体 清华大学战略与安全 ...
中信证券:二季度经济有望延续较快增长
news flash· 2025-06-17 00:22
Core Viewpoint - In May, industrial and service sector production maintained rapid growth, with domestic consumption performing better than expected, while external demand slightly declined due to short-term factors [1] Group 1: Production and Demand Analysis - In May, the growth rate of industrial added value slightly decreased, primarily due to improved industrial production in late May following eased US-China negotiations [1] - The "618 shopping festival" and the policy of replacing old consumer goods significantly boosted the retail sales growth in May, although investment growth fell short of market expectations [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Looking ahead, the current easing of US-China relations following the Geneva Joint Statement suggests that the second quarter GDP is likely to achieve rapid growth [1] - Key variables to monitor in the second half of the year include the intensity of export shipments and the resilience of consumer spending [1] - Recent central government policies aimed at stabilizing employment, increasing income, and improving livelihoods, along with the anticipated implementation of policy financial tools, are expected to support the economy in the second half of the year [1]
“低能量美式阅兵”,网友看呆了
券商中国· 2025-06-16 04:21
暴增超370%!A股,重磅信号! 深夜突发,闪崩! 重大转变!美国下令:暂停! 午后,突发!集体飙涨! 当地时间6月14日,美国政府于首都华盛顿举行阅兵式,以纪念美国陆军成立250周年。 然而,阅兵式上的美军行军队伍因精神面貌萎靡,遭到网友疯狂吐槽"低能量"。还有网民称美军的行进队列步 伐不一,调侃称"美军走出了'多元化'的步伐"。 来源:环球时报 责编:罗晓霞 校对:苏焕文 百万用户都在看 李成钢:中美就落实两国元首通话共识及日内瓦会谈共识达成框架 违法和不良信息举报电话:0755-83514034 邮箱:bwb@stcn.com ...
特朗普称中美关系非常好 外交部回应
news flash· 2025-06-12 06:39
智通财经6月12日电,据环球时报,外交部发言人林剑12日主持例行记者会。英国天空新闻记者提问, 美国总统特朗普在社交平台上发表帖文表示,中美之间的关系非常好。请问发言人是否同意他的观点? 林剑对此表示,中方一向本着相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢的精神,看待和处理中美关系。我们在对 美关系上的立场是一贯的、明确的。 特朗普称中美关系非常好 外交部回应 ...
宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20250611
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 03:22
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term trends of gold and nickel are both in a volatile state, with an intraday view of being weakly volatile, and the reference view is to wait and see [1]. - For gold, due to the easing of Sino - US relations, the gold price is under pressure, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to continue to weaken [1][3]. - For nickel, the upstream is strong and the downstream is weak, and the nickel price may run weakly after breaking through the key level [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Trends**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weakly volatile; Reference view: wait and see [1]. - **Driving Logic**: After the Sino - US Geneva meeting on May 12, Sino - US relations tend to ease, putting pressure on the gold price. The gold - silver ratio declined significantly in June due to the rise of silver, and it is expected to continue to weaken [3]. Nickel - **Price Trends**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weakly volatile; Reference view: wait and see [1]. - **Driving Logic**: The upstream ore end is tight, the downstream demand is weak, the domestic nickel inventory is decreasing from a high level while the overseas inventory is rising. After the nickel price breaks below the 122,000 mark, the futures price may run weakly [5].
五矿期货农产品早报-20250611
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 02:54
农产品早报 2025-06-11 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号:F0273729 交易咨询号:Z0002942 邮箱:wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号:F03116327 交易咨询号:Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号:F03114441 交易咨询号:Z0022498 电话:028-86133280 邮箱:sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周二美豆小幅收涨,美豆局部干旱及中美接触有所助力,不过美豆总体优良率较高限制涨幅。周二国内 豆粕现货小幅下跌,因压榨量处于高位,供应宽松,华东低价报 2820 元/吨,国内豆粕成交较弱,开机 率较高,不过提货较好,下游仍在补库。后续大豆、豆粕库存预计仍然维持累库趋势,不过由于前期开 机延迟等,油厂库存压力相对后移。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好,覆盖大部分产区,不过爱荷华州及以北降雨偏少。巴西升贴水涨跌互现, 或因销售进度偏慢,但雷亚尔升值提供支撑。25/26 年度美豆面积下降,单产的扰动使得总产量容易下 调,美豆如果没有宏观走弱的驱动,新年度可能是震荡筑底的过程。不 ...
政策与大类资产配置周观察:赛点2.0仍处于第三阶段攻坚
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-06-10 03:43
Group 1: Domestic Policy Developments - The phone call between President Xi Jinping and President Trump on June 5 aimed to recalibrate the direction of China-US relations, emphasizing the importance of dialogue and cooperation to resolve economic issues [10][11][12] - Premier Li Qiang's conversation with Canadian Prime Minister Carney on June 6 highlighted the desire to improve China-Canada relations, focusing on mutual opportunities rather than threats [12][13] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The OECD's latest economic outlook report predicts global economic growth rates of 2.9% for both 2025 and 2026, a downward revision from previous forecasts due to increased trade barriers and economic policy uncertainties [15][22] - The report indicates that the US economy is expected to grow by 1.6% and 1.5% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with inflation rates projected to be 3.2% and 2.8% for the same years [15][21] Group 3: Equity Market Analysis - Following the easing of trade tensions due to the US-China dialogue, major A-share indices rebounded, with the ChiNext and Shenzhen Composite Index rising by 2.3% and 1.8%, respectively [24] - The net inflow of southbound funds reached 13.681 billion yuan during the week, indicating positive market sentiment [24] Group 4: Fixed Income Market Analysis - The central bank's net withdrawal of 671.7 billion yuan since June has contributed to a more relaxed liquidity environment, with the DR007 rate remaining below 1.6% [46] - The ten-year government bond yield was recorded at 1.66% as of June 6, reflecting stable interest rates in the fixed income market [46] Group 5: Commodity Market Insights - The commodity market saw fluctuations, with non-ferrous metals rebounding and crude oil prices continuing to rise, while pork prices experienced a decline [4] - The IEA has predicted a decline in global oil demand, which may impact related sectors [4] Group 6: Financial Policy Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved Central Huijin's control over eight companies, enhancing its influence in the financial sector [25] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange held a meeting focused on high dividend returns and enhancing the value of listed companies, indicating a push for improved corporate governance [26][27]