Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run in a relatively strong manner in the short - term and intraday, with a mid - term view of consolidation [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Change**: On the night session of Monday, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures slightly rose 0.25% to 15760 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Situation**: With the weakening of previous macro - driving forces, the rubber market has returned to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and domestic producing areas are also continuously releasing new rubber output, resulting in high supply pressure. However, the domestic heavy - truck sales data and new - car production and sales data for August are better than market expectations, showing a significant year - on - year increase. Driven by the improvement of demand factors, it is expected that the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures may maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend on Tuesday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Change**: On the night session of Monday, the 2509 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures slightly declined 0.17% to 11720 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Situation**: With the weakening of previous macro - driving forces, synthetic rubber has returned to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the operating load of domestic synthetic rubber plants is stable, and supply pressure remains. However, the domestic heavy - truck sales data and new - car production and sales data for August are better than market expectations, showing a significant year - on - year increase. Driven by the improvement of demand factors, it is expected that the 2509 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures may maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend on Tuesday [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The price of domestic thermal coal has been strong this week, and it is expected to continue to strengthen this summer. The resonance of multiple favorable factors, such as peak season and anti - involution policy disturbances, has driven the coal price to run strongly [4]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Main Varieties Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Price Performance**: As of August 7, the quotation of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 674 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 22 yuan/ton, and the increase rate continued to expand compared with last week. Since the low point in late June, the FOB price of 5500K at the port has increased by 64 yuan/ton in total, with a growth rate of 10.5% [4]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The supply of domestic thermal coal has been running smoothly this week. The peak season of thermal coal demand has performed well. The capacity utilization rate of non - power cement clinker is significantly higher than that of the same period last year. Coupled with the anti - involution rectification work in the coal industry boosting market sentiment, the atmosphere in the pit - mouth and port coal markets is still hot. The replenishment demand of downstream power plants continues to be released, and the enthusiasm of traders for hauling is high [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of August 7, the total inventory of thermal coal at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2.4819 billion tons, basically unchanged week - on - week and slightly lower than the inventory of the same period last year by 22400 tons. Since this summer, the coal inventory at northern ports has decreased by 834400 tons in total from the inventory peak in May, and the inventory in the intermediate link has been effectively reduced, supporting the coal price to stop falling and rebound [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that domestic commodity futures mostly rose on August 11, with significant increases in lithium carbonate, polysilicon, and industrial silicon [1] - Lithium carbonate reached a limit increase of 8%, while polysilicon and industrial silicon rose over 6% and 4% respectively [1] - Other commodities such as red dates, coking coal, rubber, palm oil, caustic soda, and coke also saw increases of over 2%, while rubber, stainless steel, apples, and hot-rolled coils rose over 1% [1] Group 2 - On the downside, eggs fell over 3%, and the shipping index for Europe dropped over 2% [1] - Additionally, commodities like soybean meal, crude oil, and fuel oil experienced declines of over 1% [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 8 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：本周，国内动力煤价格维持强势运行，截至 8 月 7 日，秦皇岛港 5500K 动力煤报价 674 元/吨，周环比上涨 22 元/吨，涨幅较上周继续扩大。动力煤自 6 月下旬低点以来，5500K 港口平 仓价已累计上涨 64 元/吨，涨幅达到 10.5%。供需方面，本周国内动力煤供应平稳运行，电煤需 求旺季表现良好，非电端水泥熟料产能利用率显著高于去年同期，叠加煤炭行业反内卷整治工作 提振市场情绪，坑口、港口煤市氛围依然火热，下游电厂补 ...

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 8 月 11 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 策略参考 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：由于本周美国农业部报告预期偏空，短期美豆在缺乏天气题材和出口低迷的拖累下，期价持续 承压于 1000 美分整数关口。国内豆类市场内强外弱格局持续，交易围绕近弱远强的供应预期和成本推动 展开，远期大豆成本抬升构成豆粕价格的重要支撑，短期豆粕期价有望保持易涨难跌走势。 品种：棕榈油(P) 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概 ...

原油系领跌玻璃纯碱表现疲弱 因俄美两国元首有望近期会晤，俄乌和谈有向好预期，地缘政治紧张情绪进一步降温，叠加OPEC+持 续增产以及石油消费将季节性转弱背景下，隔夜油价表现疲弱，带动国内原油系全线收跌，其中沥青增 仓破位下行，基本面方面，据南华期货分析，沥青供给端受山东部分炼厂复工带动，供给增加。而需求 端因华南、华东区域台风天气以及华北降雨抑制了需求释放，同时资金短缺尚未改善，旺季需求不及预 期。 玻璃、纯碱连续三天收跌，尽管煤炭现货价格上涨，对相关品种有成本支撑作用，但随着其涨幅收窄， 相关品种情绪边际转弱。基本面方面，银河期货分析称，纯碱供应增加，需求稳定，回归累库趋势，中 游货源释放，下游消耗前期库存，市场流动现货增加，现货下跌收基差；玻璃方面，随着期货价格下 跌，期限商货源释放，负反馈于现货市场，经过这一轮双月级别的上涨行情，无论是中游还是下游库存 都相对充足，短期补库意愿不强，且深加工订单未有明显好转，原片企业出货不佳，多数企业为促进出 货下调价格。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京8月8日电（郭洲洋、左元）8月8日，碳酸锂涨超7%，红枣涨超3%，菜粕涨超2%，苹果涨 超1%；SC原油、低硫燃 ...

| 品种 | 结算价(8月8日) | 结算价(8月1日) | 涨跌值 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 1219.5 | 1115 | 104.5 | 9.37% | | 碳酸锂 | 75000 | 68860 | 6140 | 8.92% | | 天然橡胶 | 15500 | 14440 | 1060 | 7.34% | | 纯碱 | 1336 | 1254 | 82 | 6.54% | | 沪银 | 9277 | 8923 | 354 | 3.97% | | 红枣 | 11310 | 10880 | 430 | 3.95% | | 菜籽粕 | 2763 | 2679 | 84 | 3.14% | | 苹果 | 8022 | 7791 | 231 | 2.96% | | 豆油 | 8396 | 8228 | 168 | 2.04% | | 豆二 | 3743 | 3670 | 73 | 1.99% | | 沪金 | 785.82 | 770.9 | 14.92 | 1.94% | | 焦炭 | 1648.5 | 1617.5 | 31 | 1.92 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity futures market experienced a decline, with more commodities falling than rising, indicating a bearish trend in the market [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Fuel oil and LU fuel dropped over 2%, reflecting significant losses in these sectors [1]. - Asphalt and glass saw declines exceeding 1%, contributing to the overall downward trend [1]. - Starch and PTA experienced slight decreases, indicating a mixed performance among various commodities [1]. Group 2: Notable Gains - Lithium carbonate surged over 7%, marking a strong performance in this commodity [1]. - Red dates increased by more than 3%, showing positive market sentiment in this area [1]. - Other commodities such as soybean meal and apples rose over 1%, indicating some resilience in specific sectors [1].

人民财讯8月8日电，国内商品期货开盘，碳酸锂主力合约涨超2%，菜粕涨超1%。氧化铝跌超2%，玻 璃、纯碱、原油跌超1%。 ...

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market opened with significant movements, including lithium carbonate, coking coal, and aluminum oxide contracts rising over 1% [1] - Conversely, soybean meal, European shipping rates, and caustic soda contracts experienced declines exceeding 1% [1]