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养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20250801
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 10:18
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Report's Core View - **Soybean Oil**: The improvement of weather in the main soybean - producing areas in the US has led to a decline in US soybeans, dragging down domestic beans. There is no obvious progress in soybean imports from the Sino - US economic and trade talks. The export of about one million tons of soybean oil from China, fewer oilseed purchases in the fourth quarter, and an increase in direct imports of protein meal are expected to converge the oil mill's profit, which is beneficial to the price of oils. It is recommended to buy on dips for the soybean oil 2601 contract. Support is at 8000 - 8030 yuan/ton, and resistance is at 8400 - 8450 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Since July, the procurement and arrival of rapeseed in China have decreased, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory has declined from its high. However, it is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years. With fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter, there is an expectation of future inventory reduction. The import profit of new - crop rapeseed is okay, but the uncertainty of China - Canada trade relations remains. It is advisable to trade within a range, buy on dips, and exit long positions at high levels. Support is at 9300 - 9330, and resistance is at 9683 - 9790 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: High - frequency data shows good production of Malaysian palm oil but weak export demand, increasing the inventory pressure in July. The willingness of the origin to support prices has weakened, improving the domestic import profit and increasing domestic inventory. The upward momentum of the futures price has weakened, with a short - term need for shock adjustment. Indonesia's palm oil production is lower than expected, and its inventory is at a low level. The US biodiesel policy is beneficial to the long - term demand for US soybean oil. From the perspective of the international soybean - palm oil price difference, palm oil is cost - effective, and there is restocking demand from India and China. There is support below the futures price. Indonesia is preparing for the B50 biodiesel test, potentially beneficial to the long - term price. It is recommended to buy on dips. Support is at 8704 - 8796, and resistance is at 9480 - 9490 [4]. - **Soybean No. 2 and Soybean Meal**: There is no obvious progress in soybean imports from the Sino - US economic and trade talks. The improvement of the good - rate of US soybeans and favorable weather in the main producing areas have led to a bottom - building of CBOT soybean futures prices. The increase in imports of low - priced soybean meal from Argentina and the promotion of soybean meal reduction and substitution in China have led to a continuous decline in soybean meal prices. It is recommended to wait and see for now. The support for the main soybean meal contract is at 2930 - 2950 yuan/ton, and the resistance is at 3080 - 3100 yuan/ton. The soybean No. 2 main 09 contract is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with resistance at 3750 - 3800 and support at 3550 - 3560 yuan/ton [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Rapeseed meal shows a situation of both weak supply and demand. The cost - effectiveness of rapeseed meal is poor, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the third quarter. It is recommended to buy on dips. Support is at 2600 - 2621, and resistance is at 2791 - 2855 [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The external market is under pressure from the harvest in South America and the expected increase in US corn planting area. The domestic market is in a game between the release of old - crop corn and tight supply in some areas. It is recommended to reduce short positions on dips. The support for the corn 09 contract is at 2250 - 2260, and the resistance is at 2430 - 2450. For the corn starch 09 contract, the support is at 2600 - 2620, and the resistance is at 2830 - 2840 [5]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The gradual listing of new soybeans has increased supply, suppressing domestic soybean prices. It is recommended to wait and see for the main soybean No. 1 contract. The resistance for the 09 contract is at 4250 - 4300 yuan/ton, and the support is at 4000 - 4030 yuan/ton [6]. - **Peanut**: The low carry - over inventory of old - crop peanuts, the impact of the civil unrest in Sudan and the delay of port opening in Senegal on imports, and the high - level planting area and expected increase in yield of new - crop peanuts have different impacts on different contracts. It is recommended to take partial profit on short positions near the support level. The support for the 10 contract is at 8004 - 8020, and the resistance is at 8392 - 8398 [6]. - **Live Pig**: The futures price of live pigs is near - strong and far - weak. The spot price is likely to rise seasonally in August. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies for the 09 contract and wait for an opportunity to buy the 2511 contract on dips after the market cools down and the spot price rises [7]. - **Egg**: The egg 08 futures price has fallen back to the spot price, and the 09 contract has broken through the range. It is recommended to be cautious about short - selling, pay attention to the positive spread between September and January, and aggressive investors can buy the 09 contract on dips. The reference range is 3500 - 3800 points [8]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Part One: Sector Strategy Recommendations a. Market Analysis - **Oilseeds**: Soybean No. 1 09 is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see; Soybean No. 2 09 is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see; Peanut 10 is expected to be weakly bearish, and it is recommended to take partial profit on short positions [11]. - **Oils**: Soybean oil 01 is expected to be strongly bullish, and it is recommended to buy on dips; Rapeseed oil 09 is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to buy on dips; Palm 09 is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and it is recommended to buy on dips [11]. - **Protein**: Soybean meal 09 is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see; Rapeseed meal 09 is expected to be strongly bullish, and it is recommended to buy on dips [11]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn 09 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and it is recommended to reduce short positions on dips; Corn starch 09 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and it is recommended to reduce short positions on dips [11]. - **Livestock**: Live pig 09 is expected to rebound, and it is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies; Egg 09 is expected to find the bottom, and it is recommended to buy on dips [11]. b. Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - month Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see for most varieties, except for the positive spread for soybean meal 11 - 1 and the positive spread for live pig 9 - 1 and egg 9 - 1 [12][13]. - **Inter - commodity Arbitrage**: For oils, it is recommended to be bearish on 09 soybean oil - palm oil, bullish on 09 rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and wait and see for 09 rapeseed oil - palm oil; For protein, 09 soybean meal - rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate at a low level; For the oil - meal ratio, it is recommended to go long on the 09 soybean oil - meal ratio and wait and see for the 09 rapeseed oil - meal ratio; For energy and by - products, it is recommended to wait and see for 09 starch - corn [13]. c. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies There are data on spot prices, price changes, and basis changes for various varieties, but no specific strategies are mentioned other than the data presentation [14]. Part Two: Key Data Tracking Tables a. Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: There are data on the import cost of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping dates [16]. - **Weekly Data**: There are data on the inventory and operating rate of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [18]. b. Feed - **Daily Data**: There are data on the import cost of corn from different countries and different months [18]. - **Weekly Data**: There are data on the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [19]. c. Livestock - There are daily and weekly data on live pigs and eggs, including spot prices, production, consumption, and profit - related data [20][21][22][23][24]. Part Three: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock End (Live Pigs and Eggs)**: There are charts showing the closing price of the main live pig contract, the closing price of the main egg contract, spot prices, and other related data [25][28][29][34]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: There are charts showing the production, export, inventory, and other data of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [37][47][51]. - **Feed End**: There are charts showing the inventory, consumption, and profit - related data of corn, corn starch, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal [55][57][59]. Part Four: Options Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock, and Oils There are charts showing the historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [71][72]. Part Five: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils There are charts showing the warehouse receipt situation of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs [74][76][79].
浙商期货首届“保值方”套保模拟大赛正式启动
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-08-01 01:31
据悉,本次大赛核心亮点在于实战性及专业性。 此次大赛不仅是浙商期货三十年专业积淀与"数智化"创新成果的集中展示,更为产业客户搭建了一个学 习、实践和提升风险管理能力的优质平台。大赛报名通道于8月1日正式开启,8月25日截止。产业客户 可通过浙商期货官方渠道了解详情并组队参与,共同体验金融数智平台"保值方"管理价格风险、实现稳 健经营的高效路径。(参赛报名热线:400-700-5186、0571-28995635) 值此公司成立三十周年之际,浙商期货有限公司于2025年8月至12月举办首届"保值方"套期保值模拟大 赛。本次大赛由浙商期货和期货日报联合举办,旨在响应期货行业服务实体经济的号召,积极发挥期货 公司功能性作用,助力企业进一步提升市场风险管理能力,为企业高质量发展保驾护航。 整个赛事涵盖方案提交、策略执行、总结及评审等环节,并邀请期货行业知名专家组成评委会进行评 审。大赛结束后评选优胜参赛团队并给予丰厚现金奖励,每支参赛团队均可获赠大赛纪念礼品。 大赛面向产业客户,以团队形式(每队3~10人)组队展开角逐,参赛队伍将在期货仿真交易市场环境 中,运用交易所主流商品期货及期权合约,依托"保值方"系统为其设定 ...
【私募调研记录】复胜资产调研德福科技、雅化集团
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-08-01 00:06
Group 1: Defu Technology - Defu Technology has acquired Luxembourg Copper Foil, positioning itself among the global leaders in high-end IT copper foil production. Luxembourg Copper Foil, established in 1960, is the only non-Japanese high-end IT copper foil manufacturer globally, with an annual production capacity of 16,800 tons. Its core products include HVLP and DTH [1] - The projected revenue for Luxembourg Copper Foil in 2024 is €134 million, with a net profit of -€370,000. In Q1 2025, the expected revenue is €45 million, with a net profit of €1.67 million, indicating a quarterly turnaround [1] - Defu Technology's total production capacity for electrolytic copper foil has increased to 191,000 tons per year, making it the global leader. The company plans to accelerate technology resource integration to enhance profitability, with a research and development investment of ¥183 million in 2024 and the addition of 17 new invention patents [1] Group 2: Yahua Group - Yahua Group is a major producer of lithium salt products, particularly battery-grade lithium hydroxide, with industry-leading production technology and equipment. The company’s product quality exceeds national standards, making it a core supplier for leading global automotive and battery manufacturers [2] - The company has established long-term agreements with key clients, including Tesla, LGES, and CATL, with top clients accounting for 90% of revenue. A significant portion of orders comes from international clients [2] - Yahua Group has diversified its lithium ore sourcing through self-controlled mines and external purchases, including the Kamativi lithium mine in Zimbabwe and the Lijiagou lithium mine in Sichuan. The company also has a civil explosives business covering over 20 provinces in China and countries like Australia, New Zealand, and Zimbabwe [2] - In 2024, Yahua Group plans to hedge against price fluctuations in lithium salt products through futures contracts for lithium carbonate, continuing to adjust its hedging strategy based on production plans and market conditions [2]
【私募调研记录】正圆投资调研维力医疗、晶科能源等3只个股(附名单)
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-08-01 00:06
Group 1: Weili Medical - Weili Medical reported that its overseas production costs are slightly higher than domestic ones, but savings on shipping and storage are expected to keep gross margins stable [1] - The gross margin for urology products exceeds 70%, driven by domestic brand effects, import substitution, and overseas market expansion [1] - The company has increased its efforts to export urology products since 2023, resulting in significant growth in external sales revenue over the past two years [1] - Production capacity is concentrated in five cities, with new factories being built in Indonesia and Mexico to mitigate geopolitical risks and enhance automation levels [1] Group 2: JinkoSolar - JinkoSolar emphasized the need to control new capacity in the photovoltaic industry to address intense competition and guide prices back to rational levels [2] - The company is making progress in upgrading high-power products, with partial deliveries of products over 640W expected in Q3, and a majority of orders transitioning to these products next year [2] - JinkoSolar anticipates that its TOPCon capacity will reach 670W next year, with potential for 680-700W in the next 2-3 years, and aims to improve battery mass production efficiency to over 28% [2] - The global photovoltaic market demand remains stable, with a return to normal demand in China and rapid growth in emerging overseas markets, leading to stable component prices [2] Group 3: Yahua Group - Yahua Group is a leading producer of lithium salt products, particularly battery-grade lithium hydroxide, with industry-leading production technology and stable product quality [3] - The company serves major global automotive and battery manufacturers, with top clients like Tesla, LGES, and CATL accounting for 90% of revenue [3] - Yahua has established a diversified supply chain for lithium ore, including self-controlled mines in Zimbabwe and Sichuan, as well as long-term purchase agreements for external sources [3] - The company’s civil explosives business covers over 20 provinces in China and extends to countries like Australia, New Zealand, and Zimbabwe [3] - In 2024, Yahua plans to hedge against price fluctuations in lithium salt products through futures contracts for lithium carbonate [3] Group 4: Institutional Overview - Shenzhen Zhengyuan Investment was established in 2015 in the Qianhai Free Trade Zone and obtained a private securities investment fund license in the same year [4] - The firm has a professional research team, rich investment experience, and a comprehensive risk management system [4] - Zhengyuan focuses on the transformation and upgrading of the Chinese economy, aiming to connect social capital with quality industries to achieve asset preservation and appreciation for clients [4]
思看科技: 中信证券股份有限公司关于思看科技(杭州)股份有限公司开展外汇衍生品交易业务的核查意见
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-07-31 16:38
中信证券股份有限公司 关于思看科技(杭州)股份有限公司 开展外汇衍生品交易业务的核查意见 中信证券股份有限公司(以下简称"中信证券"或"保荐人")作为思看科 技(杭州)股份有限公司(以下简称"思看科技"或"公司")首次公开发行股 票并在科创板上市及持续督导的保荐人,根据《证券发行上市保荐业务管理办法》 《上海证券交易所科创板股票上市规则》《上海证券交易所科创板上市公司自律 监管指引第 1 号—规范运作》等有关规定,对思看科技开展外汇衍生品交易业务 事项进行了审慎核查,具体情况如下: 一、交易情况概述 (一)交易目的 公司及控股子公司存在部分进出口业务涉及外汇结算,为减少外汇汇率波动 带来的风险,降低汇率波动对公司经营业绩的影响,增强公司财务稳健性,公司 拟适当开展外汇衍生品交易业务。公司及控股子公司开展的外汇衍生品交易品种 均为与基础业务密切相关的外汇衍生产品或组合,公司不会从事以投机和套利为 目的的衍生品交易。 (二)交易金额及期限 公司及控股子公司拟使用自有资金开展预计交易额度不超过 1,500 万美元 (或等值人民币)的外汇衍生品业务。上述交易额度自公司第二届董事会第一次 会议审议通过之日起 12 个月 ...
道道全: 2025年半年度报告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-07-31 16:05
Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the financial performance and operational strategies of Daodaoquan Grain and Oil Co., Ltd. for the first half of 2025, showcasing a slight increase in revenue and significant growth in net profit, driven by effective cost management and market development strategies [1][5]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the reporting period reached CNY 2,792,439,603.13, representing a 1.16% increase compared to CNY 2,760,461,625.24 in the same period last year [5][14]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders increased significantly, with a net profit of CNY 156,992,250.92, marking a 428.51% increase from CNY 29,704,835.94 in the previous year [5][14]. - Basic and diluted earnings per share rose to CNY 0.53, up 562.50% from CNY 0.08 [5][14]. - The total assets of the company at the end of the reporting period were CNY 4,447,542,959.43, a 10.19% increase from CNY 4,036,196,359.98 at the end of the previous year [5][14]. Business Overview - The main products of the company include packaged edible vegetable oils, primarily rapeseed oil, which is a leading brand in the domestic market [6][7]. - The company operates under a dual sales model, combining agency and direct sales, with a focus on both traditional retail and e-commerce platforms [7][9]. - The company has maintained a stable market position, leveraging its brand recognition and operational efficiency to drive sales growth [7][8]. Market Position and Strategy - Daodaoquan is recognized as a national key leading enterprise in agricultural industrialization, with a strong market share in the rapeseed oil segment [8][12]. - The company has a robust distribution network with 1,397 regional distributors, enhancing its market reach and consumer access [12][13]. - The company emphasizes brand management and quality control, having established a comprehensive quality assurance system and obtained relevant certifications [12][13]. Operational Highlights - The company reported a decrease in sales expenses by 27.26% to CNY 61,555,819.07, indicating improved cost management [14]. - The gross profit margin for packaged oil products increased to 20.53%, reflecting effective pricing strategies and cost control measures [10][14]. - The company has introduced new products, including high oleic rapeseed oil and other specialty oils, to enhance its product portfolio and competitiveness [9][10].
“硅”“锂”后轮到铂族金属 广期所将尽快推动铂、钯期货上市
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-07-31 15:36
Core Viewpoint - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFE) is seeking public opinion on the upcoming launch of platinum and palladium futures and options contracts, addressing the urgent hedging needs of industry players due to significant price volatility in recent years [1][2][6]. Group 1: Futures and Options Launch - GFE has announced the public consultation for platinum and palladium futures and options contracts, with a deadline for feedback set for August 7, 2025 [5]. - Platinum and palladium futures will have no alternative delivery products and will implement a brand delivery system, requiring delivery products to be registered brands published by the exchange [4][11]. - The trading codes for platinum and palladium futures are "PT" and "PD," respectively, with a contract size of 1000 grams per lot and a minimum price fluctuation of 0.05 yuan per gram [13]. Group 2: Market Context and Demand - Platinum and palladium are crucial raw materials in the new energy sector, particularly in fiberglass and hydrogen energy applications, and are considered scarce resources globally [6]. - The demand for hedging in the industry has become urgent due to significant fluctuations in the spot prices of platinum and palladium in recent years [6]. - GFE has previously launched futures for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, indicating a focus on supporting green and low-carbon development [7][10]. Group 3: Delivery and Trading Rules - The delivery method for platinum and palladium futures will follow established practices in the futures market, including physical delivery and various delivery options [13]. - The quality standards for delivery will be based on national and international standards, with specific indicators for purity and impurity levels [13]. - The holding limits for positions will vary based on the trading volume, with specific limits set for both platinum and palladium contracts [14].
深圳华强:关于公司及控股子公司开展套期保值型衍生品交易业务的公告
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Zhi Sheng· 2025-07-31 13:45
(编辑 任世碧) 证券日报网讯 7月31日晚间,深圳华强发布公告称,公司及控股子公司拟开展的套期保值型衍生品交易 业务预计任一交易日持有的最高合约价值不超过1.10亿美元或等值币种,预计动用的交易保证金和权利 金上限(包括为交易而提供的担保物价值、预计占用的金融机构授信额度、为应急措施所预留的保证金 等)不超过1,400万美元或等值币种。上述额度在董事会审议通过之日起12个月内可滚动使用,但期限 内任一时点的交易金额(含前述交易的收益进行再交易的相关金额)将不超过已审议额度。公司于2025 年7月31日召开董事会会议审议通过了上述事项。上述事项无需提交公司股东大会审议。 ...
雅化集团(002497) - 002497雅化集团投资者关系管理信息20250731
2025-07-31 09:28
Group 1: Company Overview - Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group is a leading producer of lithium salt products, particularly battery-grade lithium hydroxide, with industry-leading production technology and automation [2] - The company has a strong market position in the civil explosives industry, ranking fourth in total production value as of 2024, with electronic detonator sales leading the industry for several consecutive years [2] Group 2: Lithium Business - The company has established a diversified lithium resource assurance system through self-controlled and purchased mines, with a processing capacity of 2.3 million tons of raw ore annually from the Kamativi lithium mine in Zimbabwe [4] - Major customers for lithium salts include global leaders such as TESLA, LGES, and domestic companies like CATL, with top clients accounting for 90% of revenue as of 2024 [3] Group 3: Civil Explosives Business - The civil explosives business covers multiple regions including Sichuan, Tibet, Xinjiang, and extends to international markets such as Australia and Zimbabwe [5][6] - The company is focused on expanding its mining service business in overseas markets while maintaining strong relationships with large domestic clients [2] Group 4: Risk Management - The company employs futures contracts for lithium carbonate to hedge against price fluctuations, aiming to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [6]
引导国有企业参与期货市场 河北证监局举办主题培训会
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-07-30 01:53
Core Viewpoint - The training organized by Hebei Securities Regulatory Bureau, Hebei Provincial Financial Office, and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange aims to enhance the understanding of local government and state-owned enterprises regarding the futures market, thereby promoting their active participation in risk management through futures trading [1][2]. Group 1: Training Objectives and Participants - The training is the first joint initiative aimed at local government departments to improve their understanding of futures business and create a favorable environment for state-owned enterprises in Hebei to engage in the futures market [2]. - Over 130 representatives from various sectors including finance, taxation, auditing, and state-owned enterprises participated in the training [1]. Group 2: Industry Context and Challenges - Hebei, as a traditional industrial province, has significant potential in utilizing the futures market due to its leading production in coal, steel, glass, corn, and eggs [1]. - The volatility of commodity prices has increased the demand for risk management among enterprises, highlighting a gap in their capabilities to effectively hedge against risks [1]. Group 3: Training Content and Outcomes - The training covered topics such as the functions of the futures derivatives market, risk management models for enterprises, and compliance in financial handling and auditing of futures derivatives [2]. - Practical experiences were shared by companies like Zhongnong Group and Zhengda Glass, which received positive feedback from participants [2]. Group 4: Future Plans - The Hebei Securities Regulatory Bureau plans to strengthen collaboration with local governments and futures exchanges to implement national policies aimed at enhancing the role of the futures market in supporting the real economy [2].