以下文章来源于公募排排网 ，作者排排产品研究中心 公募排排网 . 看财经、查排名、买基金，就上公募排排网，申购费低至0.001折。 引言 12月25日，离岸市场人民币汇率持续走强，升破7.0大关，为2024年9月以来首次； 在岸人民币最高升至7.0047，美元指数跌破98，非美货 币整体走强。 图1：美元指数今年以来持续走弱 数据来源：公募排排网；截止日期：2025年12月25日 一、人民币为何在年底明显走强 从驱动因素看，本轮人民币升值并非偶然，而是外部环境与内部因素共振的结果。 外部方面，美元走弱成为直接催化剂。 在美联储政策预期转向宽松的背景下，美元指数自 12 月中旬以来持续回落。叠加美国政治层面对"更宽松 货币政策"的频繁表态，市场对美元中期走势的信心下降，带动包括人民币在内的非美货币普遍走强。 本文首发于公众号"公募排排网"。（点击↑↑上图查看详情） 对基金投资而言，人民币汇率走强，可继续关注以下几个方向： 1、A股核心资产与高分红板块： 汇率稳定有助于改善风险偏好，外资关注度可能提升。可关注以沪深300、中证500为代表的核心资产指数基 金，以及红利指数、央企红利相关ETF。 内部方面，外汇供需 ...

Core Insights - The FOF (Fund of Funds) market is experiencing a stark contrast, with public FOFs seeing a strong recovery while FOF wealth management products are facing a downturn [2][11] - Public FOFs have surged nearly 80% in scale this year, reaching a record high of 2366.51 billion yuan, recovering losses from the past three years [3][4] - In contrast, only 9 new FOF wealth management products were launched this year, marking a significant decline in issuance compared to previous years [10][11] Public FOF Performance - As of December 25, 2025, the public FOF market consists of 546 funds managed by 82 fund managers, with a total scale of 2366.51 billion yuan, surpassing the 2360 billion yuan mark [3][8] - The public FOF market has seen a year-on-year increase of 1035.01 billion yuan, representing a growth rate of 77.73% [3][4] - The number of new public FOFs established this year reached 89, with an issuance volume of 827.16 million units, second only to the 2021 peak [3][7] Factors Driving Public FOF Recovery - The recovery of public FOFs is attributed to a favorable market environment, strong performance of equity assets, and a design that aligns with investor risk preferences [2][5] - Public FOFs have shifted from merely selecting fund managers to a multi-asset allocation strategy, which helps in risk diversification and meets the demand for stability among investors [5][6] - Institutional capital influx has also contributed to the growth of public FOF issuance, reversing the downward trend observed in the previous three years [2][5] Disparity Between Public FOFs and FOF Wealth Management Products - The stark difference in performance between public FOFs and FOF wealth management products is attributed to their operational models and market conditions [11] - FOF wealth management products have seen a significant drop in issuance, with only 9 new products launched in 2025, compared to a peak of 123 products issued between 2020 and 2022 [10][11] - The decline in FOF wealth management products is linked to liquidity constraints and unmet investor expectations due to regulatory impacts [11] Market Concentration and Competitive Landscape - The public FOF market exhibits a "Matthew Effect," where approximately 12% of fund managers control nearly 60% of the market share, indicating a trend towards concentration [8][9] - Leading fund managers benefit from strong research teams and established asset allocation frameworks, making it difficult for smaller institutions to compete [8][9] - The dominance of top managers is reinforced by regulatory advantages and the ability to attract long-term capital through products like pension-targeted FOFs [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changing dynamics of wealth management in light of declining interest rates and increased market volatility, emphasizing the need for strategic asset allocation rather than mere trading [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The concept of "quality assets" is highlighted, defined by sustained demand and relatively limited supply, which applies to both traditional consumer goods and emerging sectors like AI and semiconductors [3]. - The importance of returning to the fundamentals of supply and demand and maintaining independent judgment is emphasized as a key strategy for navigating market cycles [3]. Group 2: Asset Management Strategies - The discussion includes the significance of asset allocation, advocating for a gradient strategy that starts with defensive assets before moving to more aggressive investments [5]. - The "pyramid accumulation strategy" is introduced, where investors gradually increase their positions in risk assets during market downturns, with specific thresholds for adding to positions to manage risk [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The article contrasts the regulatory environments of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, noting that Hong Kong's more accommodating regulations allow for greater innovation and the emergence of significant companies [7][8]. - The impact of anti-involution policies on industry development is discussed, particularly in the context of the photovoltaic industry, where government intervention is seen as necessary to alleviate competitive pressures [10].

华尔街老将埃德.亚德尼(Ed Yardeni)一直是本十年最乐观的市场叙事之一——"咆哮的二十年代"的先行 倡导者。他认为，这一时代将由经济韧性、强劲的企业盈利，以及与数字革命和人工智能相关的生产率 提升所驱动。 在近期一次访谈中，亚德尼重申了他的两大预测：标普500指数在2026年达到7700点，并在2029年达到 10000点。但更引人注目的是他并行的另一个预测：黄金价格也可能在本十年末达到每盎司10000美元。 标普10000点路线图：先看盈利，再看市盈率 亚德尼的10000点预测并非一个空洞的口号，而是一条基于盈利和估值的路径。 他的出发点是标普500指数今年的每股经营盈利大约在270美元附近，明年将升至约300-310美元(他指出 市场共识预期已在此区间)。在此基础上，他的长期框架认为盈利可以持续显著增长——每年增加"数十 美元"——到2030年可能达到约500美元每股。 如果2029年末的市场展望2030年盈利，并应用大约20倍的市盈率(他的粗略区间为18-22倍)，则会接近那 个标题数字：500美元×20=10000点 在他看来，关键问题不在于盈利能否增长——亚德尼认为在利润率保持稳健的情况下这 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking wealth management business is facing challenges, including insufficient participation in the new economy and declining returns on pure fixed-income products. Institutions need to develop competitive "fixed-income plus" products and enhance trust among distributors and investors to adapt to economic transformation and capitalize on opportunities in capital markets [1][2][5]. Group 1: Necessity of Wealth Management Business Transformation - The attractiveness of fixed-income products is declining, necessitating the creation of more competitive offerings. The average monthly yield of wealth management products is projected to drop to around 2.0% by Q3 2025, down from 2.65% in 2024, indicating a decrease of 65 basis points [2]. - In contrast, equity assets are showing increasing returns, with the annual growth of the Wind All A index at 10.0% in 2024 and 26.4% from January to October 2025. The historical annualized return for the index over the past 20 years is 12.0%, suggesting that increasing equity allocations can enhance long-term returns for wealth management products [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy for Wealth Management - The transformation of fixed-income products should focus on credit exploration, duration strategies, and leverage strategies to enhance portfolio returns while managing risk preferences of investors [6]. - Diversifying into equity assets can theoretically improve overall portfolio returns. Historical data shows that holding the Wind All A index over 20 years yields an annualized return of 12.0%, compared to 4.0% for the China Bond Composite Index [8][9]. Group 3: Timing and Selection Strategies - Timing strategies can further enhance portfolio returns by adjusting asset allocations based on economic cycles. A constructed economic cycle indicator shows a positive correlation with GDP growth and a negative correlation with bond yields [13][16]. - Implementing a timing strategy based on economic cycles can improve returns, with a simulated portfolio yielding an average annualized return of 5.08%, significantly outperforming a pure bond portfolio [16][18]. Group 4: Liability Side Transformation - The transformation on the liability side focuses on enhancing recognition and trust in "fixed-income plus" products among distribution channels and investors. This requires a dual approach of improving investment strategies and making necessary adjustments on the product side [22]. - Lengthening the investment duration of "fixed-income plus" products can help reduce loss risks and improve returns. Data indicates that extending the investment period from 9 months to 15 months leads to higher median returns and lower loss probabilities across various strategies [23][24]. Group 5: Overall Transformation Strategy - The transformation of the banking wealth management business is a lengthy process that requires enhancing investment capabilities through asset allocation, timing, and selection strategies to develop competitive "fixed-income plus" products. Additionally, building trust among distribution channels and investors is crucial for scaling these products [25].

离岸人民币兑美元汇率一举升破7.0关口，创下2024年9月以来新高。这一变化不仅刷屏财经圈，更与每个普通人的钱包息息相关。人民币为何大幅升值？未 来走势如何？普通人该如何应对？一文说清！ 美元走弱成主因 美联储降息预期升温，美元指数跌破100，带动非美货币普遍升值。市场对2026年美联储继续降息的押注，进一步削弱美元吸引力。 中国经济韧性支撑 出口超预期增长、贸易顺差扩大至1万亿美元，叠加资本市场对国际资本的吸引力增强，为人民币提供基本面支撑。 年末结汇潮推波助澜 外贸企业年底集中将美元收入兑换成人民币，短期需求激增加速汇率上行。 1. 换汇成本大降，留学生家庭迎来利好 2. 美元存款"倒亏钱"，理财需谨慎 留学、旅游更省钱：当前换10万美元比6月节省约1.7万元，赴美留学、旅游开支显著降低。 海淘党狂喜：进口商品价格下降，电子产品、奢侈品性价比提升。 杭州张凯年初存8400美元，到期后人民币计价反亏1033元；购买美国国债的收益也被汇率波动吞噬。 建议：持有美元资产者可考虑分批换回人民币，或配置黄金、A股等对冲风险。 人民币购买力提升，核心城市房产、黄金等抗通胀资产可能吸引更多资金流入。 注意：央行强调"房 ...

一、国际金价屡创新高 据21世纪经济报道的消息，在经过10月底和11月初的短暂回调后，全球黄金价格再创新高。12月23日，COMEX黄金价格突破4500美元/盎司，相较年初上涨 约70%。 最近一段时间，如果要问什么东西上涨的最为疯狂，黄金肯定是其中的佼佼者，就在国际金价屡创新高的时候，面对着持续上涨的黄金价格，让人不禁想问 在这样的情况下普通人还能买黄金吗？ 更重要的是，黄金不会像纸币那样因政府滥发而贬值，也不会像股票那样因企业破产而归零。它的稀缺性、不可复制性和全球通用性，使其天然具备抗通 胀、抗危机的能力。正因如此，即便在数字资产风起云涌的今天，黄金依然是全球央行、主权基金乃至普通家庭资产配置中不可或缺的一环。 二、普通人现在还能买黄金吗？ 其次，黄金也是独立于信用货币的可靠资产。美元虽然仍是全球最主要的储备货币，但其本质是建立在美国国家信用之上的法定货币。一旦美国财政赤字失 控、债务规模膨胀或政治稳定性受损，美元的信用基础就可能动摇。近年来，全球"去美元化"趋势悄然兴起，多国央行持续增持黄金储备，正是对这一风险 的主动对冲。黄金则不同，它不需要任何中央银行背书，也不受单一经济体政策左右。无论是在战争、 ...

从市场环境来看，这一阶段的典型特征在于： 方向不缺，但确定性不足。 在此背景下，单一依赖权益贝塔的策略，胜率与盈亏比均面临 考验，而具备多资产、多方向参与能力的CTA策略，其配置价值随之提升。 可参考： 最新私募CTA收益榜揭晓！洛书、量道、宏锡居前三！ 利量排球网 1-11月CTA收益十强私募 (管理规模:50亿以上) 引言 在经历了前期单边上涨后，进入三季度以来，权益市场逐步转向高波动、弱趋势的震荡格局。以上证指数、沪深300为代表的主要股指， 在区间内反复拉锯，趋势持续性明显下降，投资者的赚钱效应随之减弱。 图1：A股宽基指数下半年以来振幅波动加大 数据来源:私募管理人(经托管复核)/托管人,整理自私募排排网,截至2025年11月 底。仅统计在私募排排网至少有3只期货及衍生品策略产品有今年1-11月业绩展示 且符合排名的私募,按旗下期货及衍生品策略产品今年1-11月收益均值排名。 首发:私募排排网公众号 | 排名 | 公司简称 | 核心策略 | 公司规模 | 实控人 | 符合排名规则的 期货及衍生品 | 规模合计 1-11月收益 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

"不同于一般投资品，黄金具备商品属性、金融属性、投资属性等特点。影响黄金价格走势的不只是供 需基本面，还受到货币政策、对冲风险、对冲通胀等多重因素影响。"中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研 究员刘英表示，投资需求增加，特别是各国央行持续购金在短期内将强化黄金供需，或将推动金价上 行。 国际金价连日来持续走高。金饰价格也一路上扬，有品牌足金饰品报价突破每克1400元，足金999回收 价每克近1000元。 当前，黄金在全球资产配置中的多元化价值与风险对冲功能，已被全球投资者和政策制定者重新认知并 重视。 业内人士认为，地缘政治紧张局势加剧、市场预期美联储进一步降息是黄金价格上涨的主要原因。各国 央行持续购买黄金以及黄金交易所交易基金（ETF）的资金流入也推高了黄金价格。 世界黄金协会日前发布的报告指出，推动2025年这一轮黄金强势上涨的重要因素，包括地缘政治与经济 不确定性加剧、美元走弱以及持续上涨的金价势能。 金价上涨，引发市场对短期风险的关注。上海黄金交易所23日发布《关于继续加强近期市场风险控制工 作的通知》指出，近期影响市场不稳定的因素较多，贵金属价格波动剧烈。请会员提高风险防范意识， 继续做好风险应急预案，维 ...

来自第三方机构私募排排网的最新数据显示，截至12月12日，有业绩记录的近1500只私募多资产策略产 品，今年以来平均收益率达19.55%，其中超九成产品实现正收益。此外，一线私募机构的相关产品收 益率普遍高于30%，连续第二年交出令人满意的答卷。2026年宏观环境错综复杂，部分资产价格持续走 高的几率较大。近期，中国证券报记者调研了多家在多资产策略领域具有代表性的私募机构，试图勾勒 出它们新一年的配置脉络与策略演进方向。 ● 本报记者 王辉 光亮2025：多资产协同奏效 "今年我们组合的收益，大约六成来自商品，三成来自权益，其余来自其他资产与交易。"上海一家中型 宏观策略私募的负责人赵远（化名）复盘其2025年操作时总结说。他的团队在年初便重仓配置了黄金与 铜，准确把握了全球避险情绪升温与再通胀交易的主线，这两类资产全年贡献了主要利润。然而，谈及 A股，他略显遗憾，"我们对上半年科技股的凌厉上涨预估不足，配置偏保守，错过了部分机会。这正 好说明，单一资产的胜负难以预测，但多资产配置能确保你不会错过整个市场的贝塔。另外，年末白银 和其他一些贵金属的暴涨完全出人意料，但我们并不遗憾，多资产配置的最终收益，并不能寄 ...