行 业 及 产 业 农林牧渔 2025 年 05 月 08 日 券 研 究 报 告 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱珺逸 (8621)23297818× zhujy@swsresearch.com 畜禽养殖业绩兑现，宠物食品延续高增 看好 ——农林牧渔行业 2024 年报&2025 年一季报总结 本期投资提示： 深 度 证 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 证券分析师 ⚫ 养殖业业绩兑现，宠物食品景气延续，农林牧渔行业 2024 年业绩同比大幅扭亏为盈。2024 年，申万农 林牧渔重点跟踪的上市公司合计实现归母净利润 396.48 亿元，同比大幅扭亏为盈。其中，子行业净利润 增速位居前列的有：生猪养殖（+321%）、肉鸡养殖（+261%）、种业（+130%）等。2025Q1 板块 内上市公司业绩延续兑 ...

新疆天蕴有机农业有限公司工作人员进行三文鱼的分拣、切割、包装等工序。（刘露 摄） 近年来，新疆尼勒克县立足本地丰富的水资源优势，将自然之水转变为发展"活水"，大力 发展冷水鱼养殖产业，并利用科技赋能，为渔业发展提供有力支撑。 现如今，尼勒克县已发展集高品质三文鱼生态养殖技术开发与应用，储存、保鲜、加工与 综合利用为一体，以绿色生态环保型网箱养殖发展为主要模式的生态综合渔业，产品更是畅销 国内外市场，让新疆的冷水鱼变"热产业"。 新疆天蕴有机农业有限公司捕捞工人在捕捞三文鱼。（刘露 摄） 在加工端，生产车间工人们正紧张有序地进行三文鱼的分拣、切割、包装等工序。吴冬介 绍，企业引进了三文鱼智能分割加工技术，是目前国际最先进的三文鱼深加工生产线；在运营 管理环节，启用了先进的管理系统，实现了生产、销售、采购、库存、物流、结算等全过程的 精准管理。2025年，公司将继续坚持创新驱动，加大研发投入，开发更多符合市场需求的新产 品，重点推出三文鱼肉松、多种口味热熏等新产品，持续扩宽国内线上线下零售市场和海外市 场。同时，公司将持续加强食品安全监督管理，确保产品质量安全。 "作为高新技术企业，公司已获得专利60余项，目前拥 ...

【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端尚未进行降重，实则利空后市；②后续出栏 量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑有限；多 头：①屠企入库尚未结束能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格坚挺，说明供需不像空 头想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐进入生猪 消费旺季；④玉米豆粕涨价可能抬升生猪养殖成本。 【策略建议】 1、观点：短期猪价或震荡，中长期来看猪价或仍有新低可能； 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从母猪、仔猪数据看，2025年二三四季度生猪出栏量均充裕，猪价暂无大 涨基础； 2）二三季度需求对猪价的支撑偏弱，难以支持猪价有明显涨幅； 3）现下生猪出栏体重仍在增加，说明养殖端仍在累库，利空后市，若后面出现 集中降重，猪价或出现新低； 4）虽然我们认为中长期看现货仍有新低可能，但由于其不确定性较高，且短期 ...

Core Insights - The swine industry is entering a phase of high-quality development, focusing on improving the productivity of breeding sows and reducing costs while increasing efficiency [1][2] - The supply of pigs cannot be solely predicted by the number of breeding sows; performance improvements must also be considered to estimate supply increments [1] - The presence of speculators in the swine farming industry has increased due to various factors, including financial pressure and high price volatility [1] Group 1: Breeding and Production - In 2024, the pig output in Fujian is projected to be 16.5258 million heads, a decrease of 2.5% year-on-year, ranking 16th in the country [2] - The breeding sow inventory in Fujian is estimated to be between 700,000 and 750,000 heads, with many new breeding farms established in recent years [2] - A core breeding enterprise emphasizes balanced breeding principles, achieving significant improvements in growth performance metrics for "American" Duroc pigs [3][4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - In Jiangxi, the pig output for 2024 is expected to be 30.356 million heads, with a significant portion of production based on a company-plus-farmer model [5] - The second fattening group has become increasingly important, with trade merchants actively participating in this segment [5][6] - The average weight of pigs for second fattening has shifted to 120-125 kg, influenced by breed upgrades and lower feed prices [7] Group 3: Health Concerns - The outbreak of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea (PED) has raised concerns, particularly affecting piglets and potentially leading to significant mortality rates [8] - The impact of common pig diseases is expected to remain low this year, with strict environmental regulations and disease management practices in place [9] - The assessment of production losses due to PED varies, with mainstream estimates suggesting a 5% loss [8]

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformation of traditional pig farming into a smart, large-scale operation at the Tun Island Livestock Breeding Base, supported by financial assistance from Postal Savings Bank [1][3]. Group 1: Smart Farming Transformation - The farm has adopted advanced technologies, including a Danish automatic feeding system, air filtration systems, and waste treatment processes, leading to significant operational efficiencies [2]. - The farm occupies 100 acres and features ten smart pig houses, with an expected annual output of 10,000 pigs [2]. - Post-automation, labor costs have decreased by 40%, feed utilization has improved by 15%, and the time to market has been reduced by 10 days, resulting in a 30% increase in overall efficiency [2]. Group 2: Financial Support and Innovation - The farm received a loan of 7 million yuan from Postal Savings Bank, which was crucial for the purchase of expensive smart equipment [3]. - The bank's innovative "project loan" product allows for quick access to funds, with loans disbursed within three working days for viable projects [3]. - The bank aims to enhance financial services for rural revitalization, with a projected growth rate of 35.49% for agricultural loans and 12.45% for inclusive agricultural loans in 2024 [3]. Group 3: Technological Collaboration - The farm collaborates with Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences to establish a comprehensive technical system for breeding and disease prevention, ensuring high-quality meat production [4]. - The farm aims to create a modern agricultural complex that integrates breeding and processing, with aspirations to establish the "Tun Island" brand as a well-known agricultural product in the province [4].

养殖业节粮行动，是养殖业高质量发展的关键战役，更关乎饲料粮安全的战略转型。需要技术创新与理 念升级并重，推动养殖业从"资源消耗型"走向"高效可持续型"，构建更有韧性的粮食安全体系。 当前，我国养殖行业存在饲料资源有效利用不足的问题。在保障粮食等重要农产品稳定安全供给前提 下，持续推进饲料粮减量替代是有效破解之道。农业农村部办公厅近日印发《养殖业节粮行动实施方 案》，提出统筹推进提效节粮、开源节粮、优化结构节粮三大措施，降低对玉米、大豆的依赖，增强粮 食供应链韧性，提升养殖业竞争力，实现资源高效利用与行业可持续发展双赢。 我国是粮食大国也是养殖大国，饲料粮占粮食消费总量的40%以上。由于传统养殖方式较粗放，饲料粮 浪费也较为严重。例如，生产环节以人工饲喂为主，人工投喂撒漏率高，过量投料普遍存在。饲料配方 营养配比失衡，存在蛋白质过剩、能量不足问题，未建立动态营养调控体系，育雏期与育肥期"一料到 底"，阶段营养不匹配。饲料粮替代原料不足，过度依赖玉米、大豆，农作物秸秆、酒糟、沼渣沼液、 餐厨垃圾、昆虫蛋白、藻类蛋白等非粮饲料利用率低。受品种性能制约，低效品种饲料转化率低，寄生 虫病等问题进一步降低养殖效益。饲料粮 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company focuses on enhancing core competitiveness and reducing breeding costs while adapting to changing consumer demands [1] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 206 million, a year-on-year increase of 157.47% [2] - In 2024, the company listed 516 million yellow feather broilers, a 12.95% increase year-on-year; 1.298 million pigs, a 51.80% increase; and 2.0963 million geese, a 21.73% increase [2] - The company reported a total revenue of 17.725 billion, a 15.44% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.521 billion, marking a turnaround from losses [2] Business Segments - The core business of the company is yellow feather broiler breeding, slaughtering, and sales, contributing 81.98% of total revenue with sales of 14.531 billion, an 8.01% increase year-on-year [2] - The pig farming segment generated 2.927 billion in sales, a 76.51% increase year-on-year, accounting for 16.51% of total revenue [2] Industry Insights - The overall pig farming industry has turned profitable in 2024 after a period of losses, with expectations of continued profitability in 2025 despite potential price declines [3] - The industry is expected to see increased concentration, with companies focusing on product development, brand building, and cost control [3] Cost Management - The company has reduced the complete cost of pig farming to below 6.50 per kg and the complete cost of yellow feather broilers to below 5.5 per kg [3] - Effective cost management is deemed essential for achieving good profitability in the breeding industry [3]

Group 1 - The company achieved a turnaround in net profit for 2024, with a year-on-year increase in revenue of 16.68% to 104.92 billion yuan and a net profit of 9.23 billion yuan [1] - The improvement in profitability is attributed to the recovery in meat pig prices and better livestock production performance, with estimated comprehensive costs for pig farming in Q1 2025 around 12.6-12.8 yuan/kg, a decrease of nearly 0.8 yuan/kg from the previous quarter [1] - The company has a competitive advantage in pig farming, with selling prices approximately 0.5 yuan/kg higher than peers, leading to superior profitability per head [1] Group 2 - The company's financial situation is strong, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 51.45% as of Q1 2025, a decrease of 1.69 percentage points from the end of 2024, and cash reserves of 5.781 billion yuan, up 29.62% from the end of 2024 [2] - The company plans to expand production steadily, with a fixed asset investment of about 5 billion yuan in 2025, focusing on the construction and upgrading of pig farms, chicken farms, slaughterhouses, and egg-laying facilities [2] - In 2024, the company sold 30.1827 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 14.93%, and 1.208 billion chickens, a growth of 2.09%, with sales targets for 2025 set at 33-35 million pigs and a growth of 5% or more for chicken sales [2]

【市场动态】 1、5月6日，生猪注册仓单705手； 生猪日报 | 2025-05-07 另存为PDF 分享 【期价震荡调整】 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月合约受后续出栏有望增加影响 偏弱运行； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日增仓1030手，持仓约7.08万手，最高价13970元/ 吨，最低价13855元/吨，收盘于13960元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端尚未进行降重，实则利空后市；②后续出栏 量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑有限；多 头：①屠企入库尚未结束能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格坚挺，说明供需不像空 头想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐进入生猪 消费旺季；④玉米豆粕涨价可能抬升生猪养殖成本。 【策略建议】 1、观点：短期猪价或震荡，中长期来看猪价或仍有新低可能； 2、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The livestock farming sector is experiencing a positive trend, with an extended profit period expected for pig farming, driven by improved demand and favorable pricing dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 7, 2025, the China Livestock Breeding Index (930707) increased by 0.20%, with key stocks such as Shengnong Development (002299) rising by 1.89% and Yiduoli (300381) by 1.75% [1]. - The Livestock ETF (516760) rose by 0.16%, with a recent price of 0.63 yuan, and has seen a cumulative increase of 7.19% over the past three months, ranking in the top 25% among comparable funds [1]. - The average price of pork in national wholesale markets reached 20.96 yuan/kg on May 6, 2025, marking a 1.8% increase compared to pre-holiday levels [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, pig farming enterprises are projected to generate revenues of 437 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.28%, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise by 337.73% to 32 billion yuan [1]. - In Q1 2025, pig farming enterprises achieved revenues of 107.88 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.69% year-on-year increase, with industry net profit reaching 7.91 billion yuan, up 236.12% year-on-year [1]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of Q2 2025, domestic demand for pigs is showing marginal improvement, with price support and a gradual transition into a phase of price increases [2]. - External factors, including rising feed raw material prices due to tariffs and increased costs of imported meat, are also contributing to favorable pricing for pigs [2]. Group 4: Valuation Metrics - The Livestock ETF, which tracks the China Livestock Breeding Index, has a current price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of 12.38, placing it in the 1.74% percentile over the past year, indicating a valuation lower than 98.26% of the time in the last year [2]. - The China Livestock Breeding Index includes companies involved in livestock feed, veterinary drugs, and livestock farming, reflecting the overall performance of related listed companies [2]. Group 5: Top Weighted Stocks - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Livestock Breeding Index include Haida Group (002311), Muyuan Foods (002714), and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), collectively accounting for 69.38% of the index [2].