报告要点 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨家用电器 [Table_Title] 营收增长提速，盈利呈现弹性—家电行业 2024 年报&2025 年一季报综述 [Table_Summary] 在内销有国补助力，外销新兴市场强劲增长势能延续的背景下，家电行业整体经营趋势加速向 上，其中仅厨电受地产影响仍处于阶段盘整当中。站在当前时点，美国关税政策或有持续反复、 扰动的可能性，我们建议在不确定性中把握确定性，围绕对美净敞口较低以及内销有国补政策 加持，业绩增长确定性较高的细分行业优质龙头进行布局。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈亮 SAC：S0490517070017 SFC：BUW408 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 家用电器 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 营收增长提速，盈利呈现弹性 2] —家电行业 2024 年报&2025 年一季报综述 [Table_Summary2] 整体：收入增长提速，盈利持续改善 2024A/2024Q4/2025Q1 家电行业样本公司营收分别同比+5.23%/+8.37%/+ ...

" 财报发布当日，三大电商平台618活动同时开启，流量宽度成为 胜负手。 " 作者丨王薇 编辑丨梁辰 长达五十多分钟的分析师问答环节中，京东首席执行官许冉用了近乎一半的时间回答有关外卖的问题。可 惜的是，当日订单量未能突破2万单的关口。 5月13日港股收盘后，京东集团披露2025年一季度业绩报告显示好于预期。这家公司正面临着国内激烈的 行业竞争和国际贸易的不确定性，但消费者信心的改善推动季度营收和利润双增。不过，官方并未在财报 中披露有关外卖的具体业务数据，只是将其单独罗列在新业务板块中进行介绍。 该公司披露，一季度调整后净利润（不包括股权激励、长期投资公允价值变动等）为128亿元人民币，同 比增长约为43%。营收同比增长15.8%，约为3011亿元人民币。这一数据超过了FactSet调查的分析师预 期。受此消息影响，京东美股开盘后股价涨幅超过5%，5月14日港股以3.36%的涨幅收盘。 业绩发布当日晚间20时，京东心动购物季开启。其竞争对手阿里巴巴旗下电商平台淘天集团和字节跳动旗 下抖音电商也于当日相继宣布618活动开启。尽管许冉在电话会议上表示，京东仍以5月31日作为正式开 始日，但受访券商分析师表示，心 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price reduction of the iPhone 16 series by Apple ahead of the "6·18" shopping festival is aimed at boosting sales in the Chinese market and responding to competitive pressures from domestic smartphone brands [2][6][7]. Pricing Strategy - Apple has issued a price adjustment notice to its channel partners, with the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max seeing price cuts exceeding 1,000 yuan across all storage versions [2][3]. - The iPhone 16 Pro starts at 6,499 yuan, while the Pro Max starts at 8,599 yuan, with reductions of 1,500 yuan and 1,400 yuan respectively compared to official prices [3]. - The iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus have also seen price reductions of 1,000 yuan, with additional government subsidies available [3][5]. E-commerce Promotions - Major e-commerce platforms like Tmall and JD.com have launched their "6·18" promotions early, with significant discounts on the iPhone 16 series, particularly the Pro versions [4][5]. - Tmall's official Apple Store is offering the iPhone 16 Pro 128GB at a promotional price of 5,499 yuan after a 2,000 yuan discount and a 500 yuan government subsidy [5]. Market Context - The "6·18" shopping festival is a critical sales period for smartphone manufacturers, with Apple aiming to leverage this event to enhance its market performance [4][6]. - Despite the price cuts and promotional efforts, Apple's performance in the Chinese market has been declining, with a reported 9% drop in shipments year-on-year in Q1 2025 [7]. Competitive Landscape - The price reductions are also a strategic move to counter the competitive pressure from domestic brands, as Android manufacturers are also launching their own promotions during the "6·18" festival [8][9]. - Other brands like Vivo and OPPO are offering substantial discounts and subsidies, indicating a highly competitive market environment [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to see revenue growth starting from Q2 2025, driven by domestic consumption stimulus and government subsidies, despite a slight revenue decline in Q1 2025 due to policy transitions [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 11.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 9% [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 473 million yuan in 2024, with a total payout including interim dividends reaching 945 million yuan, corresponding to a dividend yield of 5% [1]. - The gross profit margins for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 are projected to be 48% and 53%, respectively, showing an increase of 0.8 and 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Group 2: Market Trends - The overall retail sales in the kitchen and bathroom sector for 2024 are estimated at 176.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.7%, with essential products like hoods and water heaters showing a 10% increase [2]. - The company has restructured its product matrix into three main business segments: kitchen air environment products, cooking products, and cleaning storage products [2]. Group 3: Product Performance - Key product categories maintaining growth in 2024 include hoods (+2.51%), stoves (+3.96%), integrated machines (+2.4%), dishwashers (+4.22%), and water heaters (+5.47%) [3]. - The company is expanding its brand portfolio to address increasing replacement demand, launching the "Starry" series to target the mid-price segment and enhancing its main brand with AI cooking models [3]. Group 4: Cash Flow and Liabilities - The company's contract liabilities increased by 18% year-on-year in Q1 2025, indicating strong payment enthusiasm from distributors [4]. - Operating cash flow for 2024 was a net inflow of 1.66 billion yuan, exceeding performance expectations [4]. Group 5: Future Projections - The company has introduced a stock option incentive plan for 2025, aiming for a return on equity (ROE) of no less than 13% or revenue growth rates exceeding industry averages from 2024 [5]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.68 billion, 1.77 billion, and 1.85 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 7%, 5%, and 5%, respectively [5].

5月13日，词条#国补版iPhone 16 Pro被抢空#登上微博热搜，引起网友热议。 记者了解到，被"抢空"的机型为iPhone 16 Pro 128GB。尽管京东已进行多轮补货，但该款机型仍处于"一 机难求"的状态。这一抢购热潮背后，国补政策与618大促的叠加效应发挥了关键作用。 『京东 京东峰 又好又使宜 y 京东 618 买苹果 领惊喜劳还叠国补 现货开卖 买苹果 上京东 国家补贴 买 iPhone 16 Pro 水 京东医室 5499元 型底 至高立省 2500 元 京东618 又好又便宜 打开京乐APP搜一攫 Q 苹果惊喜秀 一京东 5月10日，苹果向渠道商下发了调价通知，宣布iPhone 16 Pro Max、iPhone 16 Pro将降价，降幅超过千 元。5月11日，京东平台自营相关产品开始调价。 研究机构IDC数据显示，2025年第一季度，中国智能手机市场出货量同比增长3.3%，达7160万部。市场 排名中，小米、华为、OPPO和vivo占据前四位，而苹果以980万台的出货量位列第五，同比下滑9%，成 为头部品牌中唯一出现负增长的厂商。苹果公司发布的第二财季业绩也显示，其在大中华区营收为 ...

Core Viewpoint - JD.com reported a strong Q1 2025 performance with a total revenue growth of 16% and an adjusted operating profit growth of 31%, primarily driven by self-operated electronic products and government subsidies [1][6][16]. Revenue Growth - The self-operated electronic products accounted for nearly 50% of total revenue, with a growth rate of 17%, significantly contributing to profit increase [1][16]. - The overall revenue for the quarter reached RMB 3,011 million, marking a 16% year-on-year increase, with the retail segment growing by 16.3% [5][29]. - Platform service revenue, including 3P commission and advertising, grew by 16% to RMB 233 million, indicating that government subsidies were a key driver for traffic and sales [22][16]. Profitability - The operating profit for the quarter reached RMB 105 billion, with an operating profit margin of 3.5%, reflecting a nearly 40% year-on-year increase [2][40]. - The gross profit margin improved from 16.2% to 16.8%, primarily due to the increase in the margin of the retail business [3][38]. - The company maintained controlled marketing expenses, which grew by only 14% compared to the 16% revenue growth, indicating effective cost management [39][40]. Shareholder Returns - JD.com announced a share buyback program of USD 5 billion from August 2024 to August 2027, with USD 1.5 billion already utilized, leaving USD 3.5 billion available [3][4]. - The expected shareholder return rate is around 10%, which is considered attractive given the current stock price [7][12]. Cash Reserves - The company reported a net cash position of USD 22 billion, providing sufficient financial capacity to support the buyback program [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The revenue and profit growth were significantly influenced by government subsidies, particularly in the electronic products sector, which may not be sustainable in the long term [8][10]. - The competitive landscape remains challenging, with concerns about the sustainability of growth driven by subsidies and the potential impact of new business ventures like food delivery [11][12].

Market Overview - In Q1 2025, China's tablet market showed strong growth, with total shipments reaching 8.52 million units, a year-on-year increase of 19.5% [1] - The consumer market led this growth, driven by the "National Subsidy" policy, with shipments increasing by 21.5% to over 8 million units, while the commercial market saw a decline of 5.3% to 510,000 units [2] Brand Performance - Huawei maintained its leading position with a year-on-year shipment growth of 13.6%, supported by its strategic product positioning in the consumer market [3][4] - Apple ranked second with nearly 10% growth, benefiting from updates to its iPad product line and the "National Subsidy" incentives [3] - Xiaomi experienced the fastest growth among the top five brands at 56.8%, attributed to its enhanced brand presence and diverse channel strategies [4] - Honor and Lenovo ranked fourth and fifth, with year-on-year growth of 25.5% and 45.7%, respectively, driven by their focus on mid-range products and strong performance in both consumer and commercial markets [4] Policy Impact - The "National Subsidy" policy significantly boosted the tablet market, encouraging manufacturers to enhance their product offerings in the mid-to-low price segments [5] - This policy reduced consumer costs and increased the availability of high-quality tablets, benefiting both consumers and manufacturers [5] Future Trends - Despite uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment, the release of new products and ongoing e-commerce promotions are expected to sustain market momentum [6] - Continuous technological advancements and diverse consumer demands will present both opportunities and challenges for manufacturers [7] - Companies need to innovate and adapt their market strategies to navigate potential risks and challenges in the evolving landscape [7] Conclusion - The Chinese tablet market demonstrated robust growth in Q1 2025, driven by consumer demand and the "National Subsidy" policy [8] - Brand competition remains fierce, with Huawei leading and Xiaomi showing rapid growth [8] - The market is poised for continued growth, supported by new product launches and promotional activities [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][26] Core Views - The company experienced a slight decline in revenue in Q1 2025, with a revenue of 0.82 billion, down 0.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.04 billion, down 10.9% year-on-year. The decline in revenue is attributed to the pressure from the real estate sector and weak consumer demand, but the impact was mitigated by the implementation of national subsidy policies [1][2][3] - The company has initiated a deep transformation in domestic retail since Q4 2024, which, combined with the effects of national subsidies, has led to a significant narrowing of revenue decline in Q1 2025 [1][4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 6 yuan for every 10 shares, with a payout ratio of 67.95%, an increase of 16.6 percentage points year-on-year [1][4] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 5.26 billion, down 14.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.39 billion, down 35.2% year-on-year. The revenue for Q4 2024 was 1.58 billion, down 27.7% year-on-year [1][5] - The revenue breakdown for 2024 shows a decline in various segments: distribution (-18.9%), direct sales (-0.8%), bulk sales (-16.2%), and overseas sales (+37.3%). In Q1 2025, the revenue changes were -25.0% for distribution, +205.8% for direct sales, -55.8% for bulk sales, and +3.5% for overseas sales [2][4] Margin and Cost Control - The gross margin for 2024 was 36.3%, down 0.8 percentage points, and the net margin was 7.3%, down 2.4 percentage points. In Q1 2025, the gross margin further decreased to 32.2%, down 5.1 percentage points [3][4] - The company effectively controlled expenses in Q1 2025, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios at 17.1%, 7.2%, 4.9%, and 0.2%, respectively, showing a year-on-year decrease [3][4] Future Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast has been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 0.42 billion, 0.47 billion, and 0.52 billion, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 9.0%, 12.6%, and 10.7% [4][5] - The diluted EPS for the same years is projected to be 0.96, 1.08, and 1.20 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11, 10, and 9 times [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue and profit growth for 2024 and Q1 2025, driven by government subsidies and expanding overseas markets [1][2][3][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 16.54 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 810 million, up 31.7% [1][3]. - Q4 2024 revenue reached 6.32 billion, growing 27.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 190 million, a staggering increase of 2178.0% [1][3]. - For Q1 2025, revenue was 3.86 billion, reflecting an 11.1% year-on-year growth, and net profit was 470 million, up 59.4% [1][3]. Profitability Improvement - The company's gross margin improved by 1.9 percentage points to 46.5% in 2024, attributed to supply chain optimization and strong sales of high-margin products [3]. - In Q1 2025, gross and net profit margins increased by 2.5 and 3.7 percentage points to 49.7% and 12.3%, respectively, driven by the higher proportion of new products [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The government subsidy policy significantly boosted domestic demand, with the cleaning appliance sector seeing online sales growth of 43.9% in Q4 2024 [2][4]. - The company is well-positioned in both domestic and international markets, with European revenues growing by 51.6% and 64.0% for its brands in 2024 [4]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its operational improvement, with strong domestic demand and ongoing international expansion [4]. - The company has committed to distributing at least 30% of its annual distributable profits in cash from 2025 to 2027, indicating strong investment value [4].

Summary of Zhibang Home's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zhibang Home - **Industry**: Home Furnishing and Interior Design Key Points and Arguments Domestic Retail Business - In Q1 2025, domestic retail business continued to decline, but the rate of decline narrowed both year-on-year and month-on-month due to management adjustments and a flattened organizational structure implemented in 2024 [2][4] - The company has adjusted the pricing system for franchisees based on province-level management, improving store quality [2][4] - Retail orders in April showed a reduced decline, primarily driven by retail contributions, although the mass market remains a significant drag [2][11] Domestic Real Estate Engineering Business - The domestic real estate engineering business saw a significant drop in signed orders in Q1 and April due to order reassessment and changes in payment conditions [2][5] - The company is exploring a shift towards corporate clients, apartments, and other sectors to mitigate the decline [5][6] Overseas Business - The overseas business is impacted by US-China tariffs, but the Middle East market is developing rapidly, with expected growth exceeding initial estimates [2][7] - The Australian market remains stable, contributing positively to overall overseas business growth [2][7] National Subsidy Policy - National subsidy policies primarily benefit franchisees with local subsidies, while inter-provincial subsidies are limited and discreet [2][8] - The company has confirmed sufficient total subsidy quotas for the year, but the release pace will be adjusted based on government assessments [8] Market Competition and Pricing - The industry is experiencing intense price competition, but national subsidy policies are expected to stabilize prices after a rebound in sales [3][13] - Economic downturn has led to a decline in unit prices for cabinets and wardrobes, with the company aiming to increase average transaction value and customer traffic to achieve revenue growth in 2025 [3][20] Franchisee Participation and Challenges - In Hefei, the subsidy policy is not fully open, leading to about 50% participation from franchisees, with some opting for other companies' policies [9][10] - Franchisees are considering costs and may withdraw from inter-provincial subsidy policies if local order issues can be resolved [10] Profitability and Margin Analysis - Q1 gross margin fluctuations were linked to store adjustments and support measures, with full payment contracts leading to lower gross margins [12] - Despite sales price stability, increased revenue has resulted in lower gross margins, but net profit levels remain unchanged [12] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing core competitiveness through internal improvements, business structure adjustments, and expanding product categories [27][28] - Efforts are being made to improve the quality of stores and restore franchisee confidence while accelerating overseas market expansion [27][28] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about future growth despite current challenges, believing that adjustments in B-end business structure and enhancements in C-end business will lead to improved operational quality and reduced risk exposure [28] - Plans for 2025 include increasing retail revenue through higher average transaction values and customer traffic, with a focus on integrated store layouts [20] Supply Chain Collaboration - Zhibang Home is open to sharing supply chain resources with capable partners to enhance market competitiveness and drive overall performance growth [29][30]