最近，北京、天津、河北、浙江等多个省市密集发布"十五五"规划建议。 从各地规划建议内容来看，均提出要加快构建房地产发展新模式，优化保障性住房供给，建设安全舒适绿色智慧的"好房子"。在此基础上，各地细则又有 不同，但整体与全国"十五五"规划建议基本一致，这将是接下来五年着力推进的重点工作。 自二十届四中全会定调"推动房地产高质量发展"、中央"十五五"规划建议明确高质量发展的六大重点任务，行业的转型路线图正从中央的宏大叙事，加速 向地方的精细化落地转变。 高质量发展仍是核心关键词 各地陆续发布的"十五五"规划建议，是对中央"构建房地产新发展模式"战略的坚决落实，河北、内蒙古、福建、黑龙江等省份明确指出"推动房地产高质 量发展。" 从具体内容来看，围绕以下四大主要关键词展开： 加快构建房地产发展新模式 优化保障性住房供给 建设安全舒适绿色智慧的"好房子" 建立房屋全生命周期安全管理制度 地方规划共同描绘的，是一个供需平衡、风险可控、注重品质的行业新发展模式。 其核心逻辑在于，通过 "市场+保障" 的双轨供应体系，聚焦 "好房子" 建设，并强化 "全生命周期管理"，推动行业从"开发"向"运营与服务"延伸，最终实 现高 ...

加快构建房地产发展新模式将有哪些发力点？住房城乡建设部政策研究中心副主任浦湛表示，完善相关基础制度，提升"人、房、地、钱"四 类要素资源的配置效果，是推动新模式落地的关键举措之一。立足于城市内涵式发展和城市更新大场景，房地产要形成产品与服务优质、供应体 系健全、要素配置合理、监管制度规范、行业经营稳健的高质量发展格局。 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出，推动房地产高质量发展。加快构建房地产发展新模式，完善商品 房开发、融资、销售等基础制度。 浙江工业大学中国住房和房地产研究院院长虞晓芬说，适应我国房地产市场供求关系发生重大变化的新形势，加快构建房地产发展新模式， 是促进房地产市场平稳健康发展的治本之策。 《建议》提出"优化保障性住房供给""因城施策增加改善性住房供给""建设安全舒适绿色智慧的'好房子'，实施房屋品质提升工程和物业服务 质量提升行动"等举措。 新华社音视频部制作 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The report emphasizes that real estate is a crucial asset allocation and investment direction for Chinese households, and stabilizing housing prices is significant for facilitating economic circulation. The policy environment is expected to strengthen further, promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector [4][41] - The report highlights the potential for a wave of development in high-quality residential properties due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure. Additionally, the sentiment in the Hong Kong private residential market is gradually recovering, indicating a new round of value reassessment for Hong Kong developers [4] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.6%, the ChiNext Index by 4.5%, and the CSI 300 Index by 1.6%. The real estate sector (Shenwan) increased by 0.7% during the week [4][7] - The top five stocks in terms of growth were Wantong Development (+19.3%), *ST Nan Zhi (+12.6%), Xinhua Group (+10.5%), Zhangjiang Hi-Tech (+9.7%), and Tianbao Infrastructure (+9.2%). The bottom five were Huaxia Happiness (-14.9%), Jingji Zhino (-14.8%), Vanke A (-11.2%), Hefei Urban Construction (-9.8%), and Jindi Group (-6.2%) [4][7] New Housing Transactions - In the week of November 22-28, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 2.06 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 9.8% but a year-on-year decrease of 51.1% [11] - For November (up to the week of November 28), new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 7.24 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 0.8% but a year-on-year decrease of 43.1% [15] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the week of November 22-28, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 202,000 square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 0.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 18.5% [26] - For November (up to the week of November 28), second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 8 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 27.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 19.2% [31] Industry News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has introduced a draft for the pilot program of commercial real estate investment trusts (REITs) to promote high-quality development in the REITs market and support the construction of a new model for real estate development [2][41] - Various local governments are implementing policies to enhance housing affordability and stimulate the real estate market, such as increasing the loan limits for purchasing high-quality residential properties in cities like Xuzhou and Changzhou [41] Company Announcements - Notable financing activities include China Merchants Shekou issuing bonds up to 5.04 billion yuan with a fixed interest rate of 1.77% for three years, and Poly Developments issuing medium-term notes with varying maturities and interest rates [44][45]

先说大致的方向： 时间轴锁定在 2025—2035 年。 判断的基础不是"玄学预言"，而是几条已经写进现实的数据与大致政策： 人口见顶、城镇化放缓、房地产投资和销售连续多年下行、政策主基调从"刺激"变为"换挡"和"重构新 模式"。 下面分几个维度展开。 一、总方向：从"地产时代"进入"后地产时代" 过去二十年，房地产几乎是中国经济的"国民发动机"： 投资拉动 GDP，土地支撑财政，房贷撑起银行资产，人均两套的预期撑起居民杠杆。 房地产不会回到上一轮那种"闭眼涨"的黄金时代； 也不会在全国范围内集体崩盘成废墟； 更大的概率是——从经济中心退位，变成一个重要但普通的行业：总量收缩、结构分化、区域极 端不均衡。 这一轮危机后，中央给出的新提法，不是"再搞一轮大刺激"，而是： 抓好保障性住房、城中村改造、"平急两用"公共基础设施建设三大工程，构建房地产发展新 模式。 这句话的潜台词是：旧模式救不回来了，只能换一套玩法。 未来10年的大趋势可以概括成四个字："退位、换挡"。 二、城市格局：强者更强，弱者长期"阴跌" 未来10年，房地产不再是"全国一盘棋"，而是城市分化的放大器。 1. 全国层面：城市化继续走，但已经进入 ...

其中提到，推动房地产高质量发展。加快构建房地产发展新模式，完善房地产开发、融资、销售等制度 机制。优化保障性住房供给，满足城镇工薪群体和各类困难家庭基本住房需求。因城施策增加改善性住 房供给。建设安全舒适绿色智慧的"好房子"，实施房屋品质提升工程和物业服务质量提升行动。加强房 屋全生命周期安全管理，支持老旧住房自主更新、原拆原建。 加强房屋全生命周期安全管理，支持老旧住房自主更新、原拆原建。 11月20日，福建省发布《中共福建省委关于制定福建省国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建 议》。 ...

加快发展保障性住房，满足城镇工薪群体和各类困难家庭基本住房需求，因城施策增加改善性住房供给 近日，黑龙江省人民政府发布《中共黑龙江省委关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建 议》。 其中指出，推动房地产高质量发展。加快构建房地产发展新模式，完善商品房开发、融资、销售等基础 制度。优化住房供应结构，加快发展保障性住房，满足城镇工薪群体和各类困难家庭基本住房需求，因 城施策增加改善性住房供给。适应高寒地区特点，建设安全舒适绿色智慧的"好房子"，实施房屋品质提 升工程和物业服务质量提升行动，加强房屋使用全生命周期安全管理。 ...

鼓励社会资本参与盘活存量资产。建立房屋全生命周期安全管理制度。 11月17日，宁夏回族自治区发布《中共宁夏回族自治区委员会关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五 年规划的建议》。 其中提到，实现更高水平住有所居。推动房地产高质量发展，加快构建房地产发展新模式，完善商品房 开发、融资、销售等基础制度。因城施策优化房地产市场调控政策，促进房地产市场持续健康发展。加 大保障性住房供给力度，更好满足城镇工薪群体和各类困难家庭基本住房需求。有效增加改善性住房供 给。统筹"好房子"建设和老房子改造，实施房屋品质提升工程和物业服务质量提升行动。开展停工房屋 建设项目和闲置房屋资产处置化解攻坚行动，鼓励社会资本参与盘活存量资产。建立房屋全生命周期安 全管理制度。 ...

建立房屋安全体检、房屋安全管理资金、房屋质量安全保险等全生命周期安全管理制度。 建议指出，推动房地产高质量发展。加快构建房地产发展新模式，完善商品房开发、融资、销售等基础 制度。坚持以需定建、以需定购，优化保障性住房供给，满足城镇工薪群体和各类困难家庭基本住房需 求，因城施策增加改善性住房供给。建设安全舒适绿色智慧的"好房子"，实施房屋品质提升工程和物业 服务质量提升行动。建立房屋安全体检、房屋安全管理资金、房屋质量安全保险等全生命周期安全管理 制度。 11月24日，《中共河北省委关于制定河北省国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》公布。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of commercial real estate REITs in China is seen as a timely and necessary step to revitalize the real estate market, allowing ordinary investors to participate and providing developers with liquidity options [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Context - The Chinese public REITs market has developed steadily over the past five years, with 77 listed REITs raising a total of 207 billion yuan and a total market capitalization of 220.1 billion yuan as of November 27 [2]. - The total market size of commercial real estate in China is approximately 5.93 trillion USD (around 42 trillion yuan) as of Q3 2025, indicating a significant opportunity for REITs to enhance financing channels [2][4]. Group 2: Benefits of Commercial Real Estate REITs - Commercial real estate REITs will provide channels for asset exit and capital recovery for real estate companies, helping to reduce debt and optimize capital structures [3]. - They will enhance operational flexibility for real estate firms, allowing them to participate in asset management while retaining control over their assets [3]. - The introduction of REITs will link the value of commercial real estate to operational metrics, encouraging better management practices through market oversight [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Framework - The announcement outlines four main aspects: product definition, fund registration and management requirements, the role of fund managers and professional institutions, and regulatory responsibilities [6]. - The regulatory framework for commercial real estate REITs will be based on existing infrastructure REITs guidelines, ensuring a structured approach to asset compliance and operational capabilities [7][8]. Group 4: Investment Appeal - Public REITs are required to distribute a significant portion of their profits as cash dividends, making them an attractive option for investors seeking stable cash flow [9]. - The potential for higher dividend yields in commercial real estate REITs is anticipated due to their market-driven nature, which may attract investors despite inherent risks [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of commercial real estate REITs in China marks a significant expansion of the REITs market, transitioning from infrastructure to commercial real estate, and is seen as a key measure for high-quality market development [1][3]. Group 1: Market Expansion and Development - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is soliciting opinions on the pilot program for commercial real estate REITs, indicating a formal expansion into this sector [1]. - The pilot program aims to create standardized financial solutions to revitalize existing assets and establish a new model for real estate development [1][3]. - The existing infrastructure REITs market has laid a solid foundation, with 77 products listed and a cumulative financing scale of 207 billion yuan, validating the REITs model's feasibility in China [3][4]. Group 2: Strategic Significance - The introduction of commercial real estate REITs is expected to facilitate a transformation in the real estate sector from a high-leverage, high-turnover model to a long-term holding and professional operation model [4][11]. - The pilot program addresses the urgent need for liquidity in the commercial real estate sector, allowing substantial assets to be converted into standardized financial products [4][5]. - The program is anticipated to create a virtuous cycle of investment, enabling a closed loop of development, REITs listing, capital recovery, and reinvestment [4][5]. Group 3: Regulatory Framework - The pilot program emphasizes a market-oriented and legal framework, ensuring continuity and stability in regulations to facilitate a smooth integration into the existing market system [6][8]. - Fund managers are required to take an active role in asset management, shifting from passive holders to proactive managers, which necessitates a professional team with expertise in commercial real estate [7][8]. - Clear asset admission standards are established to ensure that only high-quality, cash-flow-generating assets are included, thereby protecting investor interests [7][8]. Group 4: Dual-Track Development - The introduction of commercial real estate REITs signifies a dual-track development strategy, allowing both infrastructure and commercial real estate REITs to coexist and complement each other [9][10]. - Infrastructure REITs are characterized by stable cash flows and lower volatility, while commercial real estate REITs are more sensitive to market conditions, providing growth potential [10][11]. - This dual-track approach is expected to enhance financial services for key economic sectors, promoting urban commercial space improvement and consumption upgrades [11].