2025 年 06 月 19 日 铝：偏强震荡 氧化铝：关注减产检修情况 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 铝、氧化铝基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20680 | 220 | 430 | રરૂ રા | -165 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20645 | l | ー | l | । | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2545 | 0 | 29 | ୧1 | -159 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 135602 | 33904 | -63041 | -372 | -34933 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 198623 | -321 | 3995 | -5434 | 26584 | | | 电解铝 | LME铝3M成交量 | 2 ...

2025年06月19日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：海内外供应偏紧，趋势走强，月差正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：成本支撑，基差月差正套 | 2 | | MEG：伊朗多套装置停车，短期偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：地缘问题反复，偏强运行 | 7 | | 沥青：跟随原油高位震荡 | 9 | | LLDPE：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 | 11 | | PP：现货上涨，成交一般 | 13 | | 烧碱：现货承压，期货补贴水 | 14 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 16 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 18 | | 甲醇：偏强运行 | 19 | | 尿素：涨势趋缓 | 21 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：短期宽幅震荡 | 24 | | PVC：短期震荡，趋势仍有压力 | 27 | | 燃料油：夜盘震荡走弱，预计短期强势暂缓 | 29 | | 低硫燃料油：调整走势延续，外盘现货高低硫价差小幅反弹 | 29 | | 集运指数（欧线）：暂时震荡市，08多单、10空单酌情持有 | 30 | | 短纤：关注成本 ...

【6月17日尿素盘面反弹，后续行情受多因素影响】6月17日，尿素盘面继续反弹近4%，上游工厂价格 不同幅度上调。市场情绪被连日反弹的期货价格提涨，下游成交气氛转好。本周上涨受伊以冲突影响， 国际尿素供应扰动预期刺激国内价格上涨。 基本面看，供给端日产维持在20万吨以上，中长期窄幅波 动，压制行情上方空间。需求端，农需备肥好转，东北玉米追肥将展开，华北农需预计下月启动；复合 肥工厂开工负荷下降，成品库存去化受阻，对原料尿素需求承接力弱。上周厂内库存增加，出口订单企 业主动累库，月底出口货物释放后库存压力将缓解。 综合而言，尿素基本面宽松，本次反弹因价格低 位贸易商拿货增加及伊以冲突刺激能化板块走强，多为市场情绪主导，基本面未明显好转，盘面反弹难 形成持续看涨行情，但后续农需启动、出口缓解供应压力，上下空间有限。 期货方面，尿素主力2509 合约1730元/吨高开高走，收于1774元/吨，涨3.99%，持仓量285825手。前二十名主力持仓席位中，多 头+6383手，空头-8785手。国泰君安净多单增加4697手、中泰期货净多单减少5624手；方正中期净空单 减少7504手，海通期货净空单减少2377手。 202 ...

2025 年 06 月 18 日 铝：震荡偏强 氧化铝：大幅反弹 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 铝、氧化铝基本面数据更新 | | | T | T-1 | 1-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20460 | રેર | 480 | 275 | -435 | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20585 | ー | ー | l | -1 | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2545 | 28 | ર્સ | 46 | -142 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 101698 | -54378 | -47511 | -68840 | -19418 | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 198944 | -235R | 14639 | -1939 | 3138 | | 电解铝 | LME铝3M成交量 | 29269 | 13291 | 11372 ...

棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-06-17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13525 | -5 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19775 | 10 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -36649 | 2758 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -42 | 55 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 533546 | -3983 主力合约持仓量:棉纱(日,手) | 20701 | 329 | | | 仓单数量:棉花(日,张) 中国棉花价格指数:CCIndex:3128B(日,元 | 10682 | -43 仓单数量:棉纱(日,张) | 2 | 0 | | /吨) | 中国进口棉价格指数:FCIndexM:1%关税( | 14862 | 42 中国纱线价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32支(日, 元/吨) | 20300 | 0 | | 现货市场 | | 13691 | 17 到港价:进口棉纱价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 17, the SM2509 contract closed at 5,536 yuan/ton, up 0.25%, and the Inner Mongolia silicon-manganese spot was reported at 5,430 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. From January to May, the national real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%. Fundamentally, manufacturers' production cuts have led to the operating rate reaching a low level in the same period, but the overall inventory is still high. In terms of cost, the port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 198,000 tons this period. The downstream hot metal output has peaked and declined, and the raw material coal has stopped falling and rebounded, improving the pessimistic sentiment. In terms of profit, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia is -170 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia it is -400 yuan/ton. In the market, steel mills are cautious in purchasing, and the tender price continues to decline. Technically, the 4-hour cycle K-line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the market should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On June 17, the SF2509 contract closed at 5,264 yuan/ton, up 0.88%, and the Ningxia ferrosilicon spot was reported at 5,210 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. It is expected that by 2040, China's nuclear power installed capacity will reach 200 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for about 10% of power generation. In terms of demand, the current production profit of ferroalloys is negative, the settlement electricity price in Ningxia has been reduced, and the cost support has weakened. The overall expectation of steel demand is still weak. Pay attention to the market sentiment disturbance under the change of tariff policies. In terms of profit, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia is -430 yuan/ton. Technically, the 4-hour cycle K-line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the market should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM main contract closing price: 5,536 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton; SF main contract closing price: 5,264 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton [2]. - SM futures contract open interest: 608,735 lots, down 8,358 lots; SF futures contract open interest: 427,046 lots, down 5,487 lots [2]. - Net positions of the top 20 in manganese-silicon: -29,234 lots, down 2,400 lots; net positions of the top 20 in ferrosilicon: -25,934 lots, down 1,661 lots [2]. - SM 1 - 9 month contract spread: 24 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; SF 1 - 9 month contract spread: -34 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. - SM warehouse receipts: 95,641 lots, down 527 lots; SF warehouse receipts: 15,161 lots, down 32 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese-silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,430 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,260 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. - Guizhou manganese-silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,110 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [2]. - Yunnan manganese-silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,210 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [2]. - Manganese-silicon index average: 5,423 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton; SF main contract basis: -54 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan/ton [2]. - SM main contract basis: -106 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 lump at Tianjin Port: 31 yuan/ton-degree, unchanged; silica (98%, Northwest): 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke: 900 yuan/ton, unchanged; semi-coke (medium material, Shenmu): 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory: 4.401 million tons, up 198,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese-silicon enterprise operating rate: 35.3%, up 0.27 percentage points; ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate: 31.35%, down 1.43 percentage points [2]. - Manganese-silicon supply: 173,390 tons, up 1,505 tons; ferrosilicon supply: 95,100 tons, down 2,200 tons [2]. - Manganese-silicon manufacturers' inventory: 195,900 tons, up 9,300 tons; ferrosilicon manufacturers' inventory: 69,900 tons, up 2,200 tons [2]. - Manganese-silicon inventory days of national steel mills: 15.15 days, down 0.29 days; ferrosilicon inventory days of national steel mills: 15.20 days, down 0.24 days [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Demand for manganese-silicon from five major steel types: 122,153 tons, down 3,640 tons; demand for ferrosilicon from five major steel types: 19,607.8 tons, down 716.9 tons [2]. - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills: 83.39%, down 0.15 percentage points; blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 90.56%, down 0.07 percentage points [2]. - Crude steel production: 86.55 million tons, up 531,000 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In May, according to the National Bureau of Statistics' 70 - city housing price data, housing prices in all tiers of cities decreased month-on-month. New home prices in first - and second - tier cities both decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, and second - hand home prices in first - tier cities decreased by 0.7% month-on-month, with the decline expanding by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The year-on-year decline in housing prices in all tiers of cities continued to narrow [2]. - From January to May, national real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%; the floor area under construction was 6.2502 trillion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%; the newly started floor area was 231.84 million square meters, a decrease of 22.8%; the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 353.15 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%; the sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 340.91 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8%. At the end of May, the floor area of commercial housing for sale was 774.27 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 7.15 million square meters [2]. - The Swiss government lowered its economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026. The export - oriented economy is facing the impact of the global trade war. The Swiss economic growth rate in 2025 is expected to be 1.3%, lower than the 1.4% forecast by the government in March. The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) also lowered its 2026 economic growth forecast from 1.6% to 1.2%, and exports are expected to decline [2].

2025年06月17日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：中期价格承压 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：聚酯大规模检修，中期价格承压 | 2 | | MEG：多PTA空MEG减仓 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：地缘问题反复，震荡运行 | 7 | | 沥青：跟随原油高位震荡 | 9 | | LLDPE：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 | 11 | | PP：价格上涨，刚需成交 | 13 | | 烧碱：现货承压，期货补贴水 | 14 | | 纸浆：震荡偏弱 | 16 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 18 | | 甲醇：短期偏强运行 | 19 | | 尿素：地缘问题反复，偏强运行 | 21 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 23 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 24 | | LPG：地缘不确定性增加，盘面支撑走弱 | 25 | | PVC：短期震荡，趋势仍有压力 | 28 | | 燃料油：夜盘回撤，预计短期强势暂缓 | 30 | | 低硫燃料油：短线转弱，外盘现货高低硫价差小幅收窄 | 30 | | 集运指数（欧线）：08震荡走势，10空单持有 | ...

原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月16日 Z0019556 | 为主,本月主力将移仓至09合约,可关注月差变化。 | | --- | | 数据来源:海关总署、木联数据、Wind、厂发期货研究所。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。 | | 免责声明 | | 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料， 但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映 | | 研究人员的不同观点、见解及分析方法，并不代表广发期货或其时候机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中部信息或所霖 | | 达贴意见并不构成所述品种买卖部出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给厂友期货持定客户及其他专业人士，版权归 | | 广发期货所有，未经广发期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为"广发期货"。 | | DISSIO | 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 新西兰→中日韩 关注微信公众号 | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 6 月 15 日 玉米：高位震荡 尹恺宜 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019456 yinkaiyi@gtht.com 报告导读： （1） 玉米市场回顾 现货市场，6 月 13 日当周，玉米现货上涨。据汇易网统计，截至 6 月 13 日，全国玉米均价 2405.69 元/吨，较前一周 2387.84 元/吨上涨 18 元/吨。山东深加工 2420-2520 元/吨，禽料玉米 2420-2450 元 /吨，猪料玉米 2460-2500 元/吨，河南 2400-2460 元/吨，河北 2420-2480 元/吨。黑龙江深加工干粮 收购 2200-2250 元/吨，吉林深加工玉米主流收购 2210-2250 元/吨，内蒙古深加工玉米主流收购 2240- 2330 元/吨。北方玉米集港价格 2280-2320 元/吨（挂牌），水分 14.5%-15%，广东蛇口散船 2430-2450 元/吨。 期货市场，6 月 13 日当周盘面上涨。港口现货价格涨幅较大，市场心态得到提振，北方港口库存继 续去化，价格上涨。主力合约（C2507）最高价 2387 元/吨，最低 2338 元/吨，收盘价 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an industrial silicon and polysilicon market weekly report, covering the period from June 5th to June 13th, 2025 [2] - It provides an analysis of the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets, including price trends, supply and demand, and inventory levels - Recommendations for trading strategies are also given Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Industrial silicon prices rose 0.75% this week, with the market sentiment warming up as it approached the cash - cost price of large manufacturers. However, the 07 contract is expected to have limited performance next week, while the 08 contract has seen a significant increase in short positions [7] - Polysilicon prices fell 3.01% this week, continuing the previous week's decline due to the bankruptcy of US energy storage companies and the subsequent decline in downstream photovoltaic prices [7] - In the industrial silicon market, supply is increasing as Yunnan and Sichuan enter the rainy season, and demand from downstream industries shows a flat trend overall. The large number of warehouse receipts has brought significant delivery pressure to the market [7] - In the polysilicon market, supply is decreasing as all manufacturers are operating at reduced capacity, and demand is weak due to factors such as reduced downstream photovoltaic component production and high inventory levels [7] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Performance**: Industrial silicon rose 0.75% this week, while polysilicon fell 3.01% [7] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: For industrial silicon, supply is increasing as large enterprises ramp up production during the rainy season, and downstream demand from organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy shows a flat trend. For polysilicon, supply is decreasing as manufacturers operate at reduced capacity, and demand is weak due to factors such as reduced downstream production and high inventory [7] - **Trading Recommendations**: Industrial silicon's main contract is expected to trade in a range of 6800 - 7800, with a stop - loss range of 6500 - 8000. Polysilicon's main contract is expected to trade in a range of 32500 - 39000, with a stop - loss range of 32000 - 42000 [7] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Trends**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices fell this week. Industrial silicon's spot price was flat, and its basis weakened. Polysilicon's spot price decreased, and its basis also weakened [8][13][17] - **Futures Market**: Industrial silicon's production and capacity utilization increased this week, with a national production of about 70,600 tons and a capacity utilization rate of 48.62% [21][22] 3. Industry Situation - **Raw Materials**: Industrial silicon raw material prices fell, and most manufacturers' production costs were not supported [25] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's warehouse receipts and social inventory decreased this week, but the overall inventory pressure remained high [30][32] - **Downstream Industries**: - Organic silicon production and operating rates increased, but its profit decreased due to falling spot prices. It is expected that production will continue to increase [35][39][41] - Aluminum alloy prices fell, and inventory increased, making it difficult to drive industrial silicon demand [47][49] - Silicon wafer prices fell, which dragged down polysilicon demand. Battery cell prices were flat, and demand was unclear [54][56] - **Cost and Production**: Polysilicon's production cost remained flat, and its production is expected to decline gradually. In May 2025, China's polysilicon production was 97,355 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59% [60][62]