焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/10/27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1263.50 | +15.00↑ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1779.50 | +22.00↑ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 927240.00 | +2232.00↑ | J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 50013.00 | +241.00↑ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -64871.00 | -5917.00↓ | 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -4476.00 | -484.00↓ | | | JM5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 62.50 | -1.50↓ | J5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 130.50 | +1.00↑ | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） | 100.00 | 0.00 | 焦炭仓单（日，张） | 2070.00 | 0.00 | | | 干其毛都蒙 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. Instead, it gives individual ratings for different commodities, such as "follow oil price rebound, short PXN on rallies" for paraxylene, "long PX short PTA, unilateral trend rebound" for PTA, etc. [2] Core Views - The report analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, and investment suggestions for various energy and chemical commodities. It takes into account factors like supply and demand, production capacity, inventory, and macro - economic events to evaluate the price trends of each commodity. For example, for some commodities, it expects short - term rebounds due to factors like improved demand expectations or cost support, while for others, it anticipates long - term downward pressure due to high supply and weak demand [2][7][39] Summary by Commodity Paraxylene (PX) - **Price Trend**: Unilateral price short - term rebound, PXN short on rallies [2][7] - **Fundamentals**: This week, there were few changes in PX devices. Domestic device operating rate was 85.9% (+1%), and Asian overall load operating rate was 78.5% (+0.5%). Next week, some devices will restart or postpone maintenance. PX supply is slightly tight, and PTA load has increased [7] Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) - **Price Trend**: Unilateral trend is strong in the short - term [2][8] - **Fundamentals**: New devices have started operation, and some devices have adjusted their loads. Polyester load remains stable, downstream orders have improved, and inventory has decreased. Market demand expectations are positive [8] Monoethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Price Trend**: Short - term rebound, positive basis and calendar spread arbitrage [2][9] - **Fundamentals**: Oil - based plant operating rate has decreased, and import arrivals are lower than expected. Some devices are under maintenance, and coal - based device profits are negative [9] Rubber - **Price Trend**: Sideways movement [2][10] - **Fundamentals**: Futures trading volume has increased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices have risen slightly. China's natural rubber imports in October are expected to decrease, and tire production capacity utilization has increased [11][13] Synthetic Rubber - **Price Trend**: Central price moves up supported by macro - sentiment [2][14] - **Fundamentals**: Futures trading volume has increased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices of some products have risen. But the industry faces high supply pressure, and inventory has increased. However, due to many maintenance plans in November, the fundamentals are expected to improve marginally [14][17] Asphalt - **Price Trend**: Follow oil price fluctuations [2][19] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have risen slightly, trading volume and positions have decreased. Spot prices in some regions have increased, refinery operating rate has increased slightly, and inventory has changed little [19][32] Linear Low - Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) - **Price Trend**: Mainly sideways [2][34] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have decreased slightly, trading volume has decreased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices have fluctuated slightly. Raw material oil prices have rebounded, but supply pressure will increase in the future [34][35] Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Trend**: Weak trend [2][38] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices are flat, trading volume has decreased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices have risen slightly. Trade war, oil price, high supply, and low downstream profits jointly form downward pressure, but there is a short - term rebound due to factors like oil price rebound and supply reduction [38][39] Caustic Soda - **Price Trend**: Far - month valuation is suppressed [2][42] - **Fundamentals**: Alumina enterprises' high inventory puts pressure on caustic soda spot prices. Although there is new demand in some regions, the impact of alumina production reduction cannot be ignored, and cost has decreased [42][44] Pulp - **Price Trend**: Sideways movement [2][48] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have decreased slightly, trading volume has decreased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices are stable. Supply pressure persists, and demand is weak [49][50] Glass - **Price Trend**: Raw sheet prices are stable [2][52] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have decreased slightly, trading volume has increased, and positions have increased. Spot prices are stable, and downstream orders are average [53] Methanol - **Price Trend**: Sideways movement [2][55] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have decreased, trading volume has decreased, and positions have increased. Spot prices are stable. Port inventory has increased slightly, and the market is under supply pressure, but there is support from port logistics [56][58] Urea - **Price Trend**: Sideways movement [2][60] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have risen slightly, trading volume has increased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices have risen slightly. Short - term rebound is due to macro - events and increased demand from compound fertilizer factories, but long - term pressure remains due to high supply and weak demand [61][63] Soda Ash - **Price Trend**: Spot market changes little [2][65] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have risen slightly, trading volume has increased, and positions have increased. Spot prices are stable. Device supply has increased slightly, and downstream demand is average [66] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Price Trend**: Limited upward drive, focus on cost changes [2][68] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have risen, trading volume and positions have changed. Some industrial device operating rates have increased. CP paper prices have decreased [68][72] Propylene - **Price Trend**: Short - term weak sideways due to loose supply and demand [2][68] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have decreased slightly, trading volume and positions have changed. Spot prices have decreased slightly, and supply and demand are relatively loose [68] Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price Trend**: Low - level sideways [2][75] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices are weak, and spot prices are stable. Supply is expected to increase, demand is weak, inventory is high, and export growth may slow down [75] Fuel Oil - **Price Trend**: Uptrend continues, strong in the short - term [2][78] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have risen, trading volume and positions have changed. Spot prices in various regions have increased, and the price difference between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil has decreased [78] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Price Trend**: Weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to shrink [2][78] - **Fundamentals**: Similar to fuel oil, but the price increase is relatively smaller [78] Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Price Trend**: Sideways consolidation [2][80] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have changed, trading volume and positions have changed. Freight rates of some routes have increased, and shipping capacity has changed [80]

| 杨鈜汉 | | --- | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | | yanghonghan@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 2025 年 10 月 24 日 尿素：宏观支撑，短期反弹 | | 项 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,638 | 1,621 | 1 7 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,630 | 1,617 | 1 3 | | | 尿素主力 | 成交量 | （手） | 147,829 | 121,985 | 25844 | | | （01合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 298,840 | 312,046 | -13206 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 5,484 | 5,556 | -72 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 481,912 | 394,584 | 87328 | | | 基 差 | | 山东地区基差 | -88 | -81 | - 7 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 23, the JM2601 contract closed at 1258.5, up 5.14%. The spot price of Tangshan Meng 5 coking coal was reported at 1460, equivalent to 1240 on the futures market. Due to political unrest in Mongolia affecting port clearance vehicle numbers and supply - side disturbances, the market sentiment was positive. The mine - end开工率 declined due to safety inspections, with neutral inventory, while the coal washery开工率 increased for two consecutive weeks, and inventory was expected to rise seasonally. Technically, the daily K - line was above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a wide - range volatile operation [2]. - On October 23, the J2601 contract closed at 1768.0, up 4.21%. The coke price increase was implemented on October 1. In terms of the macro - aspect, the EU's 19th round of sanctions against Russia would include four companies involved in circumventing Western sanctions in the Chinese oil industry. In terms of fundamentals, the hot metal output this period was 240.95 tons, a decrease of 0.59 tons, with high - level fluctuations. The total coke inventory was higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 13 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line was above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a wide - range volatile operation driven by costs [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价 was 1258.50 yuan/ton, up 49.00; J主力合约收盘价 was 1768.00 yuan/ton, up 58.50 [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量 was 939022.00 hands, up 106904.00; J期货合约持仓量 was 49180.00 hands, up 1686.00 [2]. - The net position of the top 20 JM contracts was - 47469.00 hands, up 30131.00; the net position of the top 20 J contracts was - 3935.00 hands, up 19.00 [2]. - The JM5 - 1 month contract spread was 66.50 yuan/ton, down 8.50; the J5 - 1 month contract spread was 128.00 yuan/ton, down 17.00 [2]. - The JM warehouse receipt was 100.00 (down 100.00); the J warehouse receipt was 2070.00 (unchanged) [2]. - The price of Ganqimao Du Meng 5 raw coal increased by 6.00 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 155.00 US dollars/wet ton, up 2.50 [2]. - The price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke was 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Jingtang Port Australian imported main coking coal was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced main coking coal was 1710.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur main coking coal was 1450.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal was 1230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The JM主力合约基差 was 191.50 yuan/ton, down 49.00; the J主力合约基差 was - 48.00 yuan/ton, down 58.50 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washeries was 26.70 million tons, up 0.60; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washeries was 289.60 million tons, down 0.80 [2]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washeries was 0.37%, up 0.01; the monthly raw coal output was 41150.50 million tons, up 2100.80 [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 4600.00 million tons, up 326.00; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 191.00 million tons, down 5.10 [2]. - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 488.16 million tons, down 19.31; the weekly inventory of coking coal at independent coking enterprises (full - sample) was 997.37 million tons, up 38.31; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports was 252.65 million tons, up 0.06; the weekly inventory of coke at independent coking enterprises (full - sample) was 57.29 million tons, down 6.55 [2]. - The weekly inventory of coking coal at 247 steel mills nationwide was 788.32 million tons, up 7.19; the weekly inventory of coke at 247 sample steel mills was 639.44 million tons, down 11.38 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises (full - sample) was 12.90 days, up 0.24; the weekly available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills was 11.19 days, down 0.23 [2]. - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 1092.36 million tons, up 76.14; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 54.00 million tons, down 1.00 [2]. - The monthly output of coking coal was 3696.86 million tons, down 392.52; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 75.18%, up 0.05 [2]. - The weekly profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 13.00 yuan/ton, down 22.00 [2]. - The monthly output of coke was 4255.60 million tons, down 4.10 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 84.25%, unchanged; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.31%, down 0.22 [2]. - The monthly crude steel output was 7349.01 million tons, down 387.84 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Some open - pit coal mines in Wuhai and Qipanjing stopped production due to slope treatment and resource restructuring. With stricter environmental inspections, the shipment of operating coal mines was restricted, but the impact on output was small. The safety inspection in Qipanjing affected production, reducing the supply of raw coking coal in the Wuhai market. The online auction of coal showed a premium, and the price of clean coal was planned to increase [2]. - Political unrest in Mongolia affected port clearance vehicle numbers, causing supply - side disturbances and positive market sentiment [2]. - The EU's 19th round of sanctions against Russia would include four companies involved in circumventing Western sanctions in the Chinese oil industry [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 23, the SM2601 contract was reported at 5,818, up 0.41%. On the spot side, the Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon - manganese spot was reported at 5,580. Fundamentally, inventory rebounded rapidly, production continued to decline slightly at a high level, and inventory increased for three consecutive weeks. On the cost side, the port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 9.3 tons. On the demand side, hot - metal production fluctuated at a high level. In terms of profit, the Inner Mongolia spot profit was - 130 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit was - 270 yuan/ton. In the market, the mainstream steel procurement price was 5,820 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 180 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line was above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On October 23, the SF2601 contract was reported at 5,574, up 0.94%. On the spot side, the Ningxia ferrosilicon spot was reported at 5,250, up 10 yuan/ton. Macroscopically, the US government shutdown entered the 22nd day, the second - longest on record, and the unemployment rate might rise temporarily. In terms of supply and demand, manufacturers' production mostly remained normal, delivering previous orders. Most manufacturers had hedged in the early stage, and the inventory was at a neutral level. Lanthanum coke stabilized, and the short - term cost was supported. In terms of profit, the Inner Mongolia spot profit was - 415 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit was - 330 yuan/ton. In the market, in September, HBIS's 75B ferrosilicon tender price was 5,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton from the previous round. Technically, the daily K - line was above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价为5,818元/吨，环比上涨8元；SF主力合约收盘价为5,574元/吨，环比上涨36元[2]. - SM期货合约持仓量为549,668手，环比减少8,517手；SF期货合约持仓量为374,830手，环比减少9,875手[2]. - 锰硅前20名净持仓为 - 60,487手，环比减少7,204手；硅铁前20名净持仓为 - 26,168手，环比增加294手[2]. - SM5 - 1月合约价差为42元/吨，环比上涨4元；SF5 - 1月合约价差为58元/吨，环比下降2元[2]. - SM仓单为45,836张，环比减少456张；SF仓单为11,184张，环比增加173张[2]. 3.2 Spot Market - 内蒙古锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,580元/吨，贵州锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,600元/吨，云南锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,600元/吨，环比均无变化；宁夏硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,250元/吨，环比上涨10元，内蒙古硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,300元/吨，青海硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,160元/吨，环比无变化[2]. - 锰硅指数均值为5,640元/吨，环比下降31.9元；SF主力合约基差为 - 324元/吨，环比下降26元；SM主力合约基差为 - 238元/吨，环比下降8元[2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - 南非矿Mn38块天津港价格为24元/吨度，硅石（98%西北）价格为210元/吨，内蒙古乌海二级冶金焦价格为1,150元/吨，环比均无变化；兰炭（中料神木）价格为780元/吨，环比上涨20元[2]. - 锰矿港口库存为436.4万吨，环比减少9.3万吨[2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 锰硅企业开工率为43.28%，环比上涨0.09%；硅铁企业开工率为35.48%，环比下降0.46%[2]. - 锰硅供应为208,810吨，环比增加4,585吨；硅铁供应为112,800吨，环比减少3,000吨[2]. - 锰硅厂家库存为262,500吨，环比增加20,000吨；硅铁厂家库存为69,080吨，环比增加3,050吨[2]. - 锰硅全国钢厂库存为15.93天，环比增加0.95天；硅铁全国钢厂库存为15.52天，环比增加0.85天[2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - 五大钢种锰硅需求为121,113吨，环比减少960吨；五大钢种硅铁需求为19,572.52吨，环比减少182.08吨[2]. - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为84.25%，环比无变化；247家钢厂高炉产能利用率为90.31%，环比下降0.22%[2]. - 粗钢产量为7,349.01万吨，环比减少387.84万吨[2]. 3.6 Industry News - Trump cancelled his meeting with Putin in Budapest. The US lifted key restrictions on Ukraine's use of long - range missiles. The US imposed sanctions on two major Russian oil companies for the first time since Trump took office, and oil prices rose 4% during the session[2]. - India and the US are close to reaching a trade agreement, with tariffs reduced from 50% to 15%[2]. - Minister of Industry and Information Technology Li Lecheng said that some traditional driving forces in China are weakening, and new driving forces are still being cultivated and strengthened, not fully able to make up for the decline of traditional driving forces. The driving force should come from innovation and reform[2]. - On October 22, most of the open - pit coal mines in Wuhai and Qipanjing with a capacity of about 28.3 million tons were shut down due to slope treatment and resource restructuring. Only three fire - fighting project coal mines in Wuda District were still in normal production. Recently, local environmental inspections have become stricter, restricting the shipment of producing coal mines, but having little impact on production. In addition, safety inspections in Qipanjing have affected production, with some over - producing coal mines suspending production and shipment. The supply of coking coal raw coal in the Wuhai market has decreased, and the online auction of some coal types has seen a premium of 50 - 235 yuan/ton, with upstream sentiment improving and coking coal quotes also planning to rise[2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Alumina: Bottom consolidation [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Views - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy in both the futures and spot markets, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, inventories, and corporate profitability [1] - The U.S. government shutdown may cause a temporary increase in the unemployment rate, and India and the U.S. are close to reaching a trade agreement with a significant reduction in tariffs [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum** - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main - contract was 21,045 yuan, up 80 yuan compared to T - 1 [1] - The LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2,806 dollars, up 25 dollars compared to T - 1 [1] - The LME注销仓单占比 was 15.93%, down 0.28% compared to T - 1 [1] - **Alumina** - The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main - contract was 2,829 yuan, up 19 yuan compared to T - 1 [1] - The trading volume of the Shanghai Alumina main - contract was 268,015, up 34,165 compared to T - 1 [1] - **Aluminum Alloy** - The closing price of the aluminum alloy main - contract was 20,515 yuan, up 105 yuan compared to T - 5 [1] - The trading volume of the aluminum alloy main - contract was 3,313, up 92 compared to T - 1 [1] Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum** - The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 620,000 tons, unchanged compared to T - 1 [1] - The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit and loss was 4,887.86 yuan, up 21.55 yuan compared to T - 1 [1] - **Alumina** - The domestic average alumina price was 2,935 yuan, down 5 yuan compared to T - 1 [1] - The alumina Lianyungang CIF price in dollars/ton was 341, down 2 dollars compared to T - 1 [1] - **Aluminum Bauxite** - The price of Guinea - imported bauxite (Al:43 - 45%, Si:2 - 3%) was 73 dollars/ton, unchanged compared to T - 1 [1] Other Information - The U.S. government shutdown has entered the 22nd day, and the unemployment rate may rise temporarily. After the government re - opens, the unemployment rate is expected to fall back to 4.3%. Morgan Stanley estimates that 750,000 federal employees will be furloughed daily, which may "technically" push up the unemployment rate by 44 basis points [2] - India and the U.S. are close to reaching a trade agreement. India may agree to gradually reduce oil imports from Russia in exchange for U.S. tariff concessions. The goal is to increase bilateral trade to 50 billion dollars by 2030, and the first - phase results of the agreement are expected to be finalized between October and November [2] - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner. The prices of these products are influenced by factors such as international oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment. Crude oil shows signs of stabilizing, and short - term prices may be repaired. Although the fundamentals of PTA have improved slightly due to warm - keeping demand, its price will still follow the cost. The PR market has sufficient supply and stable demand, and its price also follows the cost [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream Prices**: On October 22, 2025, the futures settlement prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil were $58.50/barrel and $62.59/barrel, up 2.20% and 2.07% respectively. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $551.50/ton, up 2.13%. The prices of various PX - related products also showed different degrees of increase, with the PX CFR China main port price at $798.00/ton, up 1.83% [1]. - **PTA Prices**: The CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4482 yuan/ton, up 1.54%. The spot price of domestic PTA was 545 yuan/ton, up 1.30%. The CCFEI price index of PTA inner - market was 4370 yuan/ton, up 1.04%, while the outer - market index was $589.00/ton, down 0.17% [1]. - **PX Prices**: The CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 6450 yuan/ton, up 1.86%. The domestic spot price of PX was 6224 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. The PXN spread was $246.50/ton, up 1.16%, and the PX - MX spread was $125.50/ton, up 7.11% [1]. - **PR Prices**: The CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 5600 yuan/ton, up 1.19%. The mainstream market prices of polyester bottle - chips in East China and South China were 5670 yuan/ton and 5720 yuan/ton, up 0.71% and 1.06% respectively [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The CCFEI price indices of most downstream products such as polyester fibers were stable, except for the price index of polyester short - fibers, which was 6310 yuan/ton, up 0.48% [2]. Operating Conditions - The operating rates of the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms, remained unchanged on October 22, 2025. The production - sales ratios of polyester products varied, with the production - sales ratio of polyester filaments at 53.33%, down 32.88 percentage points, while those of polyester short - fibers and polyester chips were 107.77% and 141.10%, up 41.19 and 47.57 percentage points respectively [1]. Device Information - A 700,000 - ton PX device in Northeast China has been under maintenance since September 18, with an expected maintenance period of about 45 days [2]. Important News and Logic - **PX**: International oil prices continued to rise on October 22, 2025, supported by the tense relationship between the US and Venezuela and the US plan to purchase oil to replenish the strategic reserve. Although the cost - driving effect was average, domestic refinery maintenance plans led to expectations of supply reduction. The demand side of PTA was okay, but market trading was cautious. The PX2601 contract closed at 6450 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA**: The cost support of PTA slightly recovered. The TA2601 contract closed at 4482 yuan/ton. Although the PTA factory had low profits, it did not further reduce production. The polyester filament production - sales were booming on Tuesday, and the potential reduction of a PX device in East China boosted the market. However, new PTA devices were about to start trials or restart, and the weaving orders were unstable with high坯布 inventory [2]. - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang market was 5620 - 5720 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. The rebound of PTA and bottle - chip futures pushed up the supply - side quotes, but downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand, and the market trading atmosphere was average. The PR2601 contract closed at 5600 yuan/ton [2].

Report Summary Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views - **Oils and Fats**: Overall, a phase of bearish sentiment is maintained. Palm oil may test the support around 9000 yuan, and the market is expected to gradually stabilize if it can find support at this level. Soybean oil has a mix of bullish and bearish factors, and the domestic futures market may maintain a narrow - range shock adjustment. The spot basis quotation may have limited fluctuation space [1]. - **Sugar**: The raw sugar price has limited rebound momentum due to supply expectations. It is expected to fluctuate between 15 - 16 cents per pound. The 9 - month production and sales data is moderately bearish, and the market is expected to maintain a shock - weak pattern [3][4]. - **Meal Products**: The spot price of domestic soybean meal is expected to have limited upward movement this year, but the downward space is also limited. If the market does not purchase US soybeans, the M2601 contract has support around 2900, and attention should be paid to the uncertainty of arrivals [6]. - **Pigs**: In the long - term, the supply pressure of pigs in the fourth quarter will continue to be released, and the pig price is not optimistic. The policy - driven industry capacity reduction effect needs time to materialize, and the spot price is expected to face pressure until the first half of next year. The short - term disk operation may be strong, but the upward space is limited [9]. - **Corn**: In the short - term, the slow increase in corn supply supports the price, but it is under pressure from the supply side. The disk is expected to maintain a low - level shock [12][14]. - **Cotton**: In the short - term, cotton prices will fluctuate within a range. The Zhengzhou cotton main contract has cost support at low levels, but there is also increasing hedging pressure above 13500 - 13600. The downstream terminal demand is weak, but textile enterprises have demand for cotton raw materials at current prices [15]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is expected to rise slightly this week and then stabilize for observation, but there is still overall pressure due to sufficient supply and improving demand [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On October 22, compared with October 21, the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased to varying degrees. The basis of soybean oil and rapeseed oil decreased, while the basis of palm oil increased. The cross - period spreads of various oils also changed, with the palm oil cross - period spread increasing significantly [1]. - **Market Influencing Factors**: For palm oil, the high production in the first 20 days has a negative impact on the market, and the end - of - month inventory estimate and the MPOB report are key factors. For soybean oil, factors such as US inventory changes, Brazilian biodiesel policies, and domestic market competition all affect the market [1]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On October 22, the prices of sugar futures and spot decreased. The production and sales data showed an increase in production and sales, but the sales rate decreased slightly. The import price of Brazilian sugar decreased, and the price difference with domestic sugar also changed [3]. - **Influencing Factors**: The supply pressure from Brazil and the market's attention to the production prospects of India and Thailand affect the raw sugar price. The 9 - month production and sales data and new sugar pre - sale prices affect the domestic sugar market [3][4]. Meal Products - **Price and Inventory**: The prices of domestic soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans showed minor changes. The inventory of domestic soybeans and soybean meal is still at a high level, and the recent purchase has slowed down due to poor crushing margins [6]. - **Market Influencing Factors**: The improvement of the US soybean export expectation, the smooth sowing of Brazilian new - crop soybeans, and the high domestic soybean import volume all affect the market. The uncertainty of soybean arrivals also needs attention [6]. Pigs - **Market Conditions**: On October 22, the futures price of pigs decreased slightly, while the spot price increased. The slaughter volume increased slightly, and the prices of piglets, sows, and other indicators also changed. The breeding profit decreased significantly [9]. - **Influencing Factors**: The short - term rebound of pig prices is mainly due to secondary fattening, but the long - term supply pressure is still large, and the policy - driven capacity reduction effect needs time to be reflected [9]. Corn - **Price and Inventory**: On October 22, the price of corn futures decreased, and the basis increased. The inventory of corn and corn starch changed, with the corn warehouse receipt increasing significantly [12]. - **Market Influencing Factors**: The weather in different regions affects the corn harvest and price. The demand side is relatively cautious, and the subsequent procurement intention of deep - processing and feed enterprises will increase [12][14]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On October 22, the price of cotton futures decreased slightly, and the spot price increased slightly. The commercial inventory increased significantly, while the industrial inventory decreased slightly. The import volume increased [15]. - **Influencing Factors**: The firm purchase price of Xinjiang machine - picked seed cotton provides cost support, but the weak downstream terminal demand and increasing hedging pressure limit the upward space of cotton prices [15]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: On October 22, the price of egg futures decreased, and the spot price remained unchanged. The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings remained unchanged, and the price of culled chickens decreased. The egg - to - feed ratio and breeding profit decreased [18][19]. - **Influencing Factors**: The high inventory of laying hens, the improvement of egg - laying rate and egg weight, and the increasing demand from downstream trade - ups all affect the egg price [19].

免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1209.50 | +32.50↑ J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1709.50 | +37.50↑ | | | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 832118.00 | +3293.00↑ J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 47494.00 | -62.00↓ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -77600.00 | +15892.00↑ 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -3954.00 | -154.00↓ | | | JM5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 75.00 | +2.00↑ J5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 145.00 | -0.50↓ | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） 干其毛都蒙5原煤（日，元/吨） | 200.00 1089.00 | 0.00 焦炭仓单（日，张） -26.00↓ 唐山一级冶金焦（日，元/吨） | 2070.00 1720 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term L2601 is expected to strengthen with oil prices, with a daily operating range projected to be around 6870 - 7030. The PE production and capacity utilization are expected to rise slightly. The overall inventory pressure is not significant. The cost of oil - made LLDPE decreases with international oil prices, and the oil - made profit recovers; the coal - made cost drops slightly, and the loss deepens. The downstream shed film is in the peak season, while the new orders for the packaging film are limited [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing prices of polyethylene futures contracts increased, with the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contract closing prices at 6936 yuan/ton, 6978 yuan/ton, and 7009 yuan/ton respectively, up 53 yuan/ton, 61 yuan/ton, and 57 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 234079 lots, down 52219 lots, and the open interest was 549864 lots, down 12101 lots. The 1 - 5 spread was - 42, down 8. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 77933 lots, up 2926 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6983.48 yuan/ton, down 8.26 yuan/ton, and in East China was 7131.43 yuan/ton, down 13.57 yuan/ton. The basis was 100.48, down 12.26 [2]. Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 58.33 US dollars/barrel, down 0.99 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 537 US dollars/ton, down 8.5 US dollars. The mid - price of ethylene CFR in Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia remained unchanged at 771 US dollars/ton and 781 US dollars/ton respectively [2]. Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate was 81.76%, down 2.19%. From October 10th to 16th, the PE output decreased by 2.05% to 65.06 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.19% to 81.76% [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of polyethylene packaging film, pipes, and agricultural film were 52.19% (down 0.7%), 32% (up 0.33%), and 42.89% (up 7.28%) respectively. From October 10th to 16th, the average operating rate of Chinese polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.55%, and the overall operating rate of agricultural film increased by 7.3% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of polyethylene were 8.29% (up 0.78%) and 7.68% (up 0.34%) respectively. The implied volatilities of at - the - money put and call options were 11.27%, down 0.91% [2]. Industry News - As of October 22nd, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene manufacturers was 51.46 tons, down 2.81% from the previous period; as of October 17th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 54.54 tons, down 0.05% from the previous period. From October 11th to 17th, the cost of oil - made LLDPE decreased by 3.34% to 7166 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 140.29 yuan/ton to - 80.71 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - made LLDPE decreased by 0.86% to 6507 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 76.15 yuan/ton to 494.14 yuan/ton [2]. Outlook - Tianjin Petrochemical, Guoneng Ningxia Coal Industry, and Daqing Petrochemical are scheduled for maintenance this week, and the previously short - stopped units will gradually restart. The PE output and capacity utilization are expected to rise slightly. In October, there are few new shutdown units, and new production capacity is about to come on stream, resulting in high supply pressure. The downstream shed film is in the peak season, and the orders and operating rate are rising to the annual high; the new orders for the packaging film are limited, and the units are expected to operate stably. Due to the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the possible deterioration of the Venezuelan situation, international oil prices have risen significantly. In the short term, L2601 is expected to strengthen with oil prices, with a daily operating range of around 6870 - 7030 [2].