Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory build - up, and the overall inventory build - up rate has widened month - on - month. Overseas standard rubber arrivals are increasing while mixed rubber arrivals are slightly decreasing. Downstream tire manufacturers are cautious in replenishing stocks, with a mostly wait - and - see purchasing sentiment and low overall outbound volume. In terms of demand, the resumption of production by previously overhauled enterprises has driven a month - on - month increase in the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week. Entering the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises is slow, and most enterprises are in a state of flexible production control, limiting the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. With the continuous rise of finished product inventory, there is a possibility of individual enterprises undergoing maintenance or reducing production in the later stage. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,500 in the short term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,150 - 12,650 in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,390 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,570 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is 0 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber is 0 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,820 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 146,495 lots, up 14,415 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 61,828 lots, up 2,594 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 30,266 lots, up 1,040 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 11,485 lots, up 428 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 87,160 tons, up 2,900 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 59,573 tons, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Vietnam 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,835 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,830 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 is 10,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 270 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 720 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,930 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 545 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 53.8 US dollars/ton, up 10.6 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 126,100 tons, up 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 256,400 tons, down 61,100 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 64.07%, up 0.57 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 71.57%, up 0.65 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 40.58 days, up 1.07 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 45.51 days, up 0.56 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 13.36%, up 0.67 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 14.76%, up 0.45 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.51%, down 0.2 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.51%, down 0.2 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 498,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,200 tons, an increase of 2.08%. The bonded area inventory was 77,500 tons, an increase of 4.88%; the general trade inventory was 421,400 tons, an increase of 1.58%. As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a month - on - month increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points [2].

油料日报 | 2025-12-17 豆一受终端消费低迷压制，花生油料交投难有起色 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2601合约4090.00元/吨，较前日变化-40.00元/吨，幅度-0.97%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A01+110，较前日变化+40，幅度32.14%。 策略 中性 风险 无 花生观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘花生2601合约7962.00元/吨，较前日变化-90.00元/吨，幅度-1.12%。现货方面，花生现货均价 8105.00元/吨，环比变化-40.00元/吨，幅度-0.49%，现货基差PK01-1162.00，环比变化+90.00，幅度-7.19%。 市场资讯汇总：现货方面：昨日，全国花生市场通货米均价4.07元/斤，下跌0.01元/斤，其中，河南麦茬白沙通货 米好货3.5-3.9元/斤不等、8筛精米4.25-4.4元/斤，豫、鲁、冀大花生通货米3.4-4.5元/斤，辽宁、吉林白沙通货米4.6-4.8 元/斤、8筛精米5.1-5.25元/斤，花育23通货米4.4元/斤左右，以质论价。油厂油料米合同采购报价6800-7600元/吨， 部分工厂报价上调50元/吨，严控指标 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-12-17 单边：中性，短期观望为主 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 油价波动、宏观政策、关税政策、港口装船延迟、炼厂装置检修超预期等。 原油端大幅下跌，LPG市场相对坚挺 市场分析 1、\t12月16日地区价格：山东市场，4380-4480；东北市场，4080-4300；华北市场，4300-4420；华东市场，4320-4475； 沿江市场，4640-4960；西北市场，4150-4400；华南市场，4390-4550。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2026年1月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷600美元/吨，跌5美元/吨，丁烷590美元/吨，跌5美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4664元/吨，跌42元/吨，丁烷4586元/吨，跌42元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年1月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷594美元/吨，跌5美元/吨，丁烷584美元/吨，跌5美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4617元/吨，跌42元/吨，丁烷4539元/吨，跌43元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 虽然原油价格出现大幅下跌，但LPG外盘表现相对坚挺，到岸成本受到一定支撑。现 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of Reports Red Dates - Red dates' "weak reality" of high inventory and weak consumption of old stock dominates, combined with the new - season production reduction being less than expected and the loosening of cost support. The recent sales area has more arrivals and less shipments, with no obvious peak - season features. The short - term trend is a wide - range low - level oscillation. Future focus should be on post - Spring Festival inventory levels, 2026 planting area, and early - stage weather forecasts [1]. Live Pigs - Spot prices are stable, and with the increasing pickling demand in the South, the downward support has strengthened. There is high uncertainty in the December - January market. On one hand, the recent increase in the epidemic may suppress the spot market; on the other hand, secondary fattening may support prices. Although the monthly slaughter volume is increasing month - on - month, it is lower than expected. The spot is expected to continue to bottom out. In a situation of loose supply and demand, the futures price has difficulty rising continuously. Attention should be paid to the epidemic situation and its potential to cause early slaughter and over - consume post - holiday supply [4]. Meal Products - The U.S. soybeans lack trading highlights, and China's demand has been fully traded. South American new - season soybeans are being planted smoothly with good hydrothermal conditions and a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. Early - sown soybeans will be listed in January, continuously suppressing U.S. soybeans. The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose pattern, and the space for speculating on supply gaps has narrowed. Recently, the market is speculating on the extension of soybean customs clearance time, and the auctions have had good results, supporting the 1 - 5 positive spread. In the short - term, there is a sentiment to hold up prices in the spot market, but the spot pressure remains. There is no driving force for a single - sided trend, and the room for the positive spread to continue to strengthen is limited. Attention should be paid to the risk of a decline [7]. Corn and Corn Starch - In the northeast, farmers have a sentiment of holding up prices, and the producing - area prices are stable. Traders are more willing to sell due to the decline in futures prices, leading to an increase in the supply at northern ports and a slight decline in prices. Attention should be paid to the continuity of arrivals at northern ports. In North China, farmers adjust their selling behavior according to price changes, and the number of arriving vehicles is acceptable, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range. On the demand side, deep - processing enterprises' inventory is increasing slowly and they purchase as needed; feed enterprises' demand is rising, and forward - order purchases are increasing. In the short - term, the increase in supply causes the futures price to weaken, but the increase is limited, and due to farmers' price - holding sentiment and the need of low - inventory enterprises to replenish inventory, the decline range is restricted. Attention should be paid to the selling rhythm and downstream inventory replenishment [8]. Fats and Oils - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures market is in a volatile downward trend due to concerns about potential year - end inventory growth to 2.9 million tons and a slowdown in exports. Attention should be paid to whether it can stop falling and rebound after finding support around Friday. The overall view is that the near - term is weak and the long - term is strong. The domestic palm oil futures market is also in a volatile downward trend, with a short - term weakening trend and breaking through the previous low. Affected by the decline of Malaysian palm oil, it still has the pressure to further weaken and is looking for support in the 8,200 - 8,300 yuan range. - **Soybean Oil**: The U.S. EPA is expected to finalize the 2026 Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) next year. Processors' enthusiasm for large - scale biodiesel production may decline, which may reduce the industrial consumption of U.S. soybean oil and drag down CBOT soybean oil. In China, the National Grain and Oil Trading Center planned to auction 513,800 tons of imported soybeans, with 323,100 tons actually sold at an average price of 3,852.08 yuan/ton and a transaction ratio of 62.88%. However, the released amount of soybeans is limited. As January approaches and the Spring Festival stocking is about to start, the factory's soybean oil inventory is expected to continue to decrease, which will support the basis quote. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The U.S. EPA's delay in finalizing the 2026 RVO has caused the U.S. soybean oil futures price to decline, dragging down the domestic vegetable oil market, including rapeseed oil. The market is still digesting the news of COFCO's purchase of Canadian rapeseed, increasing concerns about future supply pressure. The market sentiment is weak, and the rapeseed oil price has broken through the previous low. Attention should be paid to whether the 05 contract can find support at 9,000 yuan [12]. Sugar - The ICE raw sugar futures closed down because the Brazilian weather is favorable for the growth of the next - season sugarcane. Although the sugar production and cane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region in December are much lower than last year, the expectation of a loose supply remains. As Brazil is approaching the end of the harvest season, it has little impact on the market. Overall, the loose supply outlook restricts the rebound of raw sugar prices, and the price is in a bearish pattern. In China, the sugar - making pace in the main producing areas is accelerating. Affected by the increasing supply, the futures price is weakening. Sugar - making groups have slightly lowered their prices, and the new sugar has entered the market. However, the market trading atmosphere is still tepid, and the spot trading is average. Currently lacking positive factors, the price has no power to rebound and is expected to maintain a weak trend [14]. Cotton - The ICE cotton futures closed down due to weak exports and an expected increase in supply. The U.S. cotton export sales have decreased. Overall, U.S. cotton maintains a volatile market. In China, the market expects a decline in the next - year's planting area in Xinjiang, with an optimistic long - term outlook. However, the downstream industry is weak, with the inventory of finished products continuing to accumulate, and the profits and cash flow of spinning enterprises are deteriorating. But the overall pressure on the downstream industry is still acceptable, and spinning enterprises have a rigid demand for cotton, limiting the downside space of cotton prices. However, the constraints on cotton prices are increasing, and there is pressure on the upside. Attention should be paid to the resistance level around 14,050 - 14,100 [17]. Eggs - Egg prices have been rising from a low level, leading to farmers' reluctance to sell and a continuous decrease in the slaughter of old hens. Based on previous chick - replenishment data, the number of newly - laying hens is decreasing, but the overall inventory improvement is not obvious. Coupled with the recent cooling being conducive to egg storage, the egg supply is still sufficient. There are not many positive factors in the market, and the sales in high - price areas are slow, causing prices to decline. In low - price areas, the expectation of price increases is rising, and the transaction has improved. The sales speed varies in different markets, and prices are adjusting stably. According to the latest survey, on December 16, 2025, the production - link inventory decreased by 1.05%, and the circulation - link inventory decreased by 2.24%. Traders are mainly selling goods, and the sales in some high - price areas are slightly slow. However, the market's expectation of price increases has stimulated farmers' reluctance to sell and terminal replenishment. Considering the sufficient supply, the price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Red Dates Futures - **Futures Prices**: The prices of red dates 2601, 2605 (main contract), and 2609 all decreased, with declines of 1.62%, 0.66%, and 0.59% respectively. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 170%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 1.61%. - **Spot Prices**: The Cangzhou special - grade, first - grade, and second - grade spot prices were 9,670 yuan/ton, 8,600 yuan/ton, and 7,200 yuan/ton respectively, with the special - grade price decreasing by 0.92% [1]. - **Basis and Inventory**: The basis of Cangzhou special - grade and main contract decreased by 22.22%. The total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts increased by 22.09% [1]. Live Pigs - **Futures Prices**: The price of the main contract basis decreased by 31.03%. The prices of live pigs 2605 and 2603 increased by 0.21% and 0.40% respectively, and the 3 - 5 spread increased by 3.33%. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in different regions such as Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan showed different trends. The sample - point daily slaughter volume decreased by 0.33%, and the weekly piglet price decreased by 2.94% [4]. Meal Products - **Soybean Meal**: The Jiangsu spot price increased by 0.32%, the M2605 futures price increased by 0.69%, and the basis decreased by 2.63%. The Brazilian 2 - month shipping - date import - crushing profit decreased by 22.9%. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The Jiangsu spot price decreased by 0.83%, the RM2605 futures price increased by 0.77%, and the basis decreased by 48.10%. The Canadian 1 - month shipping - date import - crushing profit increased by 1.18%. - **Soybeans**: The prices of Harbin soybeans and Jiangsu imported soybeans remained unchanged. The futures prices of soybean - 1 and soybean - 2 main contracts decreased by 0.97% and 0.63% respectively [7]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The prices of corn 2601 and the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price decreased by 0.36% and 1.29% respectively. The basis decreased by 23.91%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 12.50%. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 decreased by 0.44%, the basis increased by 14.29%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 2.38% [8]. Fats and Oils - **Soybean Oil**: The Jiangsu first - grade spot price decreased by 0.47%, the Y2605 futures price decreased by 0.61%, and the basis increased by 3.05%. - **Palm Oil**: The Guangdong 24 - degree spot price decreased by 0.82%, the P2605 futures price decreased by 0.96%, and the basis increased by 20.69%. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The Jiangsu third - grade spot price decreased by 2.23%, the OI605 futures price decreased by 1.33%, and the basis decreased by 21.59% [12]. Sugar - **Futures Prices**: The prices of sugar 2601 and 2605 decreased by 1.49% and 1.42% respectively. The ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.54%. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased by 0.37% and 0.66% respectively. The national sugar production and sales decreased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory decreased [14]. Cotton - **Futures Prices**: The prices of cotton 2605 and 2601 decreased by 0.32% and 0.43% respectively. The ICE U.S. cotton main contract decreased by 1.25%. - **Spot Prices**: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index 3128B increased by 0.56% and 0.46% respectively. The industrial inventory increased slightly, and the textile exports showed different trends [17]. Eggs - **Futures Prices**: The prices of egg 01 and 02 contracts decreased by 0.26% and 0.48% respectively. - **Spot Prices**: The egg - producing - area price decreased by 0.41%, the egg - chick price decreased by 1.75%, and the culled - hen price increased by 2.85% [19].

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: December 17, 2025 [3] Report Content BR (Cis - Polybutadiene Rubber) Futures Market - On December 16, the BR main contract (12) was at 10,930, up 85 from the previous day and 355 for the week [4]. - Open interest reached 101,056, an increase of 3,013 from the previous day and 20,510 for the week [4]. - Trading volume was 140,807, a decrease of 69,256 from the previous day but an increase of 13,815 for the week [4]. - Warehouse receipt quantity remained at 19,180, with no change from the previous day and an increase of 160 for the week [4]. - The long - short ratio was 26.34, up 1 from the previous day and 5 for the week [4]. Basis/Spread/Inter - Variety - The cis - polybutadiene basis was - 180, down 85 from the previous day and 125 for the week [4]. - The butadiene basis was 270, down 85 from the previous day and 175 for the week [4]. - The 02 - 03 spread was - 25, up 5 from the previous day and down 10 for the week [4]. - The 03 - 04 spread was - 25, unchanged from the previous day and down 10 for the week [4]. - The RU - BR spread was 4,240, down 115 from the previous day and 370 for the week [4]. - The NR - BR spread was 1,455, down 60 from the previous day and 210 for the week [4]. Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 10,750, unchanged from the previous day and up 200 for the week [4]. - The Transfar market price was 10,650, unchanged from the previous day and up 150 for the week [4]. - The Qilu ex - factory price was 10,700, up 100 from the previous day and 100 for the week [4]. - CFR Northeast Asia was 1,350, up 25 from the previous day and 25 for the week [4]. - CFR Southeast Asia was 1,600, unchanged from the previous day and for the week [4]. Profit - Spot processing profit was 543, up 92 from the previous day but down 259 for the week [4]. - Import profit was - 503, down 199 from the previous day but up 26 for the week [4]. - Export profit was 1,280, unchanged from the previous day and down 199 for the week [4]. BD (Butadiene) Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 7,850, down 90 from the previous day and up 450 for the week [4]. - The Jiangsu market price was 7,625 [4]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 7,550, unchanged from the previous day and up 350 for the week [4]. - CFR China was 870, unchanged from the previous day and up 10 for the week [4]. Profit - Ethylene cracking profit was N/A [4]. - C4 extraction profit was N/A [4]. - Butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 1,259, up 375 [4]. - Import profit was 547, up 25 from the previous day and 311 for the week [4]. - Export profit was - 1,287, down 22 from the previous day and up 226 for the week [4]. Production Profit - Styrene - butadiene production profit was 1,288, up 100 from the previous day and down 163 for the week [4]. - ABS production profit was N/A [4]. - SBS production profit was - 465, unchanged from the previous day and down 45 for the week [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the recent operation of PTA plants has been stable. Some polyester factories have made phased replenishments, driving the strengthening of the spot basis. The futures market fluctuates with the cost side. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate with the cost side in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a certain range. Attention should be paid to the oil price trend and downstream load [5]. - For MEG, at low prices, some domestic ethylene - based MEG plants have reduced their loads, and the weekly start - up rate has dropped below 70%. With the restart and load increase of Zhengdaikai, the start - up rate will moderately recover. The arrival of foreign MEG ships this week has returned to normal, and the upward trend of port inventory can be moderately alleviated. Fundamentally, MEG shows a loose balance due to supply contraction this month, but there is a lack of confidence and obvious driving force in the market under the medium - and long - term inventory accumulation expectation. It is expected that MEG will be adjusted at a low level in the near future, and attention should be paid to the cost side and plant changes [6]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - No relevant content provided 2.每日提示 - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average, the spot basis was relatively strong, and individual polyester factories replenished their stocks. Individual mainstream suppliers offered far - term cargoes. The December cargo was mainly traded at a discount of about 20 points to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range at 4600 - 4640. The current mainstream spot basis is at 01 - 20. The spot price is 4615, the 01 contract basis is - 13, and the futures price is at a premium. The PTA factory inventory is 3.86 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract is decreasing [5]. - MEG: On Monday, the ethylene glycol futures opened higher and traded in a narrow range, and the market negotiation was average. The price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated in a narrow range. The spot negotiation and trading this week and next week were carried out at a discount of 10 - 24 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, and some traders were actively involved in spot quoting. In the US dollar market, the center of the ethylene glycol outer market strengthened. Recently arrived cargoes were traded at around 430 - 431 US dollars/ton, and individual traders participated in inquiries. The cargoes for shipment at the end of December and in January were negotiated at 434 - 435 US dollars/ton, and those for shipment at the end of January and in February were negotiated at around 438 - 439 US dollars/ton. The trading volume in the market was weak. The spot price is 3640, the 01 contract basis is - 11, and the futures price is at a premium. The total inventory in the East China region is 75.8 tons, an increase of 3.8 tons compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract is increasing [6]. 3.今日关注 - No relevant content provided 4.基本面数据 - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, PTA consumption, total demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the EG production, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, EG consumption, total demand, port inventory, and inventory change from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. - Price: It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, polyester filaments, and polyester staple fibers from December 11 to December 15, 2025, as well as the changes in basis, spreads, and processing fees [12]. 5.影响因素总结 - Positive factors: A 500,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Zhejiang has been shut down for maintenance as planned recently, and it is expected to restart around the end of January. A 400,000 - ton/year MEG plant in South China has been shut down for maintenance today, with a preliminary planned maintenance period of about 10 days [8]. - Negative factors: A 250,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan has been restarted after a short - term shutdown in late November. A 260,000 - ton PX plant in Japan has been restarted as planned last weekend after a shutdown in early October [9].

财达期货｜生猪玉米周报 财达期货｜生猪、玉米周报 2025-12-15 需求利好支撑生猪，玉米盘面高位震荡 研究员 姓名：田金莲 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 7 页 财达期货｜生猪玉米周报 F3046737 Z0015545 生猪 上周生猪期货低位反弹，H2603 合约报收 11325 元/吨，较前 周结算价上涨 1.75%。 从业资格号： 投资咨询号： 现货方面，全国外三元生猪市场价为 11.53 元/公斤，环比上 涨 0.02 元/公斤。利润方面，截至 12 月 12 日，自繁自养生猪养殖 利润为-163.34 元/头，环比增加 4.35 元/头；外购仔猪养殖利润 为-240.69 元/头，环比增加 18.7 元/头；猪粮比价为 4.91，周环 比下降 0.04。 上周全国生猪现货价格先跌后稳，养殖场出栏量逐步增加，二 育散户大猪陆续出栏，同时部分地区的猪场出现点状散发疫情，一 定程度上加快了局部出栏节奏，生猪价格偏弱调整。下半周随着价 格下跌，散户认卖度降低，叠加南方腌腊陆续开启，屠宰量小幅增 加，生猪价格止跌趋稳。目前来看，供应维持正常出栏节奏，部分 地区二育补栏积极性提升，叠加 ...

Group 1: Sugar Investment Rating Not provided Core View The sugar market is expected to remain weak next week due to a lack of positive factors and weak price rebound. The supply outlook is loose, which restricts the rebound of raw sugar prices. The increase in supply has led to a decline in futures prices and a subsequent drop in basis sugar prices. [2] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar futures contracts have generally declined, while the ICE raw sugar主力 has increased slightly. The main contract's open interest has increased, and the number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts remains unchanged. [2] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices have decreased, and the basis has changed. The price of imported Brazilian sugar has increased, and the spread between imported and domestic sugar has also changed. [2] - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative production and sales of sugar have decreased year - on - year, and the national sales rate has declined, while the sales rate in Guangxi has increased. Industrial inventories in most regions have decreased, except for an increase in Yunnan. Sugar imports have increased. [2] Group 2: Cotton Investment Rating Not provided Core View Internationally, US cotton maintains a volatile market. Domestically, the market expects a decline in Xinjiang's planting area next year, with a long - term optimistic outlook. However, the downstream industry is weak, and cotton prices face some upward pressure. [5] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of some cotton futures contracts has declined slightly, and the open interest of the main contract has decreased. The number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts has increased. [5] - **Spot Market**: Some spot prices have increased, and the basis has also changed. [5] - **Industry Situation**: The shortage has increased, industrial inventories have increased slightly, imports have decreased, and the inventory in bonded areas has decreased. The inventory of the textile industry has decreased year - on - year, and the inventory days of yarn and grey cloth have changed. Cotton outbound shipments have increased, while the processing profit of spinning enterprises has decreased. Retail sales and export volumes in the textile and clothing industries have increased. [5] Group 3: Corn Investment Rating Not provided Core View The current grain sales progress is relatively fast, but the effective market circulation of grain is limited. The price is relatively stable in the short term due to factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell and low terminal inventory, but the supply pressure restricts the upward space of corn prices. [7] Summary by Directory - **Corn**: The price of the corn 2601 contract at Jinzhou Port has declined slightly, and the basis has increased. The 1 - 5 spread remains unchanged. The price at Shekou Port remains stable, and the north - south trade profit remains unchanged. The arrival - at - port duty - paid price has decreased slightly, and the import profit has increased. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning has decreased significantly, the open interest has decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased. [7] - **Corn Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2601 contract has increased slightly, and the spot prices in Changchun and Weifang remain unchanged. The basis has decreased, the 1 - 5 spread has increased, the 01 - contract spread between starch and corn has increased, and the profit of Shandong starch has increased. The open interest has decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [7] Group 4: Oils Investment Rating Not provided Core View For palm oil, there is a risk of further decline after breaking through the 4000 - ringgit support. Dalian palm oil futures are in a weak and volatile adjustment. For soybean oil, the potential reduction in US biodiesel production is negative for CBOT soybean oil, but the rebound of BMD palm oil provides some support. The domestic supply is sufficient, and the demand is limited, but the decline in basis quotes may be limited in the short term. [10] Summary by Directory - **Palm Oil**: The price of palm oil has declined, and the basis has changed. The import cost has decreased, and the import profit has increased. The number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [10] - **Soybean Oil**: The price of soybean oil remains unchanged, and the basis has increased. The supply of domestic factories is sufficient, and the demand is limited. [10] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of rapeseed oil has increased slightly, and the basis has also changed. [10] Group 5: Pigs Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price of pigs is stable, and the downward support has increased with the increase in southern curing demand. However, there is great uncertainty in the December - January market due to factors such as the increase in the epidemic and the potential entry of secondary fattening, and the overall supply pressure is still large. [12] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The prices of some pig futures contracts have increased, and the 3 - 5 spread has changed. The open interest of the main contract has increased, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [12] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices in different regions have changed, and the slaughter volume of sample points has increased. The weekly prices of pork strips remain unchanged, while the prices of piglets and sows have decreased slightly. The average slaughter weight has decreased slightly, and the breeding profits of self - breeding and purchased pigs have increased. The number of fertile sows has decreased. [12] Group 6: Eggs Investment Rating Not provided Core View The egg market is expected to be in a state of oversupply this week. Egg prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, but the downward space is limited due to insufficient terminal demand. [15] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The prices of egg futures contracts have declined, and the basis has increased. The 1 - 2 spread has decreased. [15] - **Spot Market**: The price of eggs in the producing areas has decreased slightly, the price of egg - laying chicken seedlings has decreased, the price of culled chickens has increased, the egg - to - feed ratio has increased, and the breeding profit has increased. [15] - **Industry Situation**: The number of culled chickens has decreased slightly, and the number of newly - laying hens is still low. The inventory of laying hens is still at a high level, and the inventories at all links in the industry chain need to be digested. The terminal consumption is lower than expected, and the downstream purchasing sentiment has declined. [15] Group 7: Meal Investment Rating Not provided Core View US soybeans lack trading highlights, and the market is not optimistic about the medium - and long - term price of US soybeans. The domestic soybean meal supply is loose, but there is a sentiment of supporting prices in the market, and attention should be paid to the performance of the 1 - 5 positive spread. [17] Summary by Directory - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of soybean meal has increased, the futures price has increased slightly, and the basis has increased. The import crushing profit has increased, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [17] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price of rapeseed meal remains unchanged, the futures price has increased, and the basis has decreased. The import crushing profit has decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts is zero. [17] - **Soybeans**: The spot price of soybeans in Harbin remains unchanged, the futures price has decreased, and the basis has increased. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remains unchanged, the futures price has decreased slightly, and the basis has increased. The number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [17]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 15 日 纸浆：宽幅震荡 20251215 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.534 | 5. 586 | -52 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5,540 | 5.520 | +20 | | | | 成交量(手) | 482, 936 | 833.491 | -350, 555 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 204. 480 | 204. 699 | -219 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 198, 979 | 198, 115 | +864 | | | | 前20名会员净持仓(手) | -18, 685 | -13, 750 | -4.935 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 银星-期货主力 | 66 | 14 | +52 | | | | 金鱼-期货主力(非标) | -884 | -936 | +52 | | | 月差 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical futures, including trends, fundamentals, and market news for each product [2]. - Overall, the market shows a mixed trend, with some products in a high - level or low - level shock state, while others face supply - demand pressures or have short - term rebound opportunities. Summary by Product PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: In a high - level shock market. Demand is seasonally weakening, but supply remains tight. The upside space is limited due to weakening demand and the end of the blending logic. The recommended operation range is 6550 - 7000, and some hedging positions should be closed [2][10]. - **PTA**: In a high - level shock market. The cost - side PX supply is tight, but polyester is accumulating inventory and incurring losses, so the upside space is limited. The recommended operation range is 4500 - 4800, and some hedging positions should be closed [2][11]. - **MEG**: The unexpected load reduction improves the inventory accumulation pressure, and there is short - term support below. The price has reached the cost line of most production devices, and some factories have stopped operating [2][11]. Rubber - In a shock operation state. The price has a small increase, and the inventory has increased. The trend strength is neutral [12]. Synthetic Rubber - The shock center moves up. The inventory of domestic butadiene rubber has decreased slightly, and the supply of butadiene has decreased marginally. The industry is under pressure but supported by valuation [15][18]. Asphalt - Affected by the rising situation in Venezuela. The price shows a shock trend, with changes in production capacity utilization and inventory in different regions [19][30]. LLDPE - Unilateral decline, with limited basis strengthening. The futures price is under pressure, and the demand is weakening. The supply pressure from high - capacity and weak demand needs to be concerned in the medium term [33][34]. PP - Under upstream selling pressure, with the price difference between powder and granular materials inverted. The cost support is limited, the demand is weak, and it is expected to continue the weak trend. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [37][38]. Caustic Soda - Short - term rebound, but still under pressure later. Although the futures price rebounded due to macro and alumina factors, it is still in a high - production and high - inventory pattern, and the demand is difficult to support [40][41]. Pulp - In a wide - range shock state. The upward momentum comes from external cost and supply tightening expectations, while the downward pressure comes from high domestic inventory and weak terminal demand [44][47]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The futures price has a slight decline, and the spot price shows mixed trends in different regions. The northern region is affected by snowfall [52]. Methanol - Shock rebound. The port inventory is decreasing, and the fundamentals have improved. However, the MTO fundamentals are weak, and there is a price limit above, while the cost provides support below [54][58]. Urea - Short - term shock operation. The enterprise inventory is decreasing, and the fundamentals have improved marginally. The policy and cost form a support below, and there is a pressure level above [60][62]. Styrene - Short - term shock. The pure benzene market is in a shock state, with weak current situation and strong future expectations. The styrene downstream is in a high - start, high - inventory, and medium - profit pattern [63][64]. Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The enterprise production is stable, and the downstream demand is flat, with poor procurement enthusiasm [67][68]. LPG - Short - term shock, with a downward trend in the long term. The price shows a shock trend, and there are changes in PDH and other operating rates [71][72]. Propylene - Short - term narrow - range adjustment. The price and relevant operating rates show certain changes [72]. PVC - Low - level shock. The market is in a high - production and high - inventory pattern, and there is a short - term rebound expectation, but the large - scale production reduction expectation may occur after the 03 contract [80][81]. Fuel Oil - The night - session rebounds, temporarily getting rid of the weak state. The low - sulfur fuel oil is weaker than the high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the external market rebounds slightly [83]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Short - term sentiment is optimistic, and it is in a medium - term shock market. The freight rate index shows an upward trend, and there are changes in shipping capacity and schedules [85]. Short - fiber and Bottle - chip - Medium - term pressure. It is recommended to hold long PTA and short short - fiber/bottle - chip positions. The futures prices are in a low - level shock state, and the spot prices show certain changes [94][95]. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see. The spot price is stable, and the market demand is weak, with strong wait - and - see sentiment [97][98]. Pure Benzene - Short - term shock. The port inventory has increased, and the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and overseas market conditions [102][103].