贵金属日报 2026-01-05 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 内盘截至节前最后一个交易日，沪金跌 0.85 %，报 977.56 元/克，沪银跌 4.27 %，报 17074.00 元/千克；外盘截至 1 月 2 日，COMEX 金报 4341.90 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 72.27 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.19%，美元指数报 98.41 ； 贵金属，尤其是白银价格在加速上涨阶段已经充分体现了哈塞特或沃什就任的货币政策预期。 而在明年一季度，仍在鲍威尔领导下的美联储，其宽松步伐将会显著放缓。12 月份联储议息 会议宣布进行降息和扩表的"双宽操作"，但点阵图所显示的 2026 年降息预期仅为一次，当 前联储已在过去三次议息会议中进行连续的降息操作，在一月份进一步宽松的可能性较小。我 们预计，一季度整体的联储货币政策表态将会边际转紧。而这对于贵金属价格形成宏观层面的 利空因素。而在现货数据方面，截至 1 月 4 日，白银一月期隐含 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-01-05 期货研究报告 二、商品投资参考 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251231 | 2025/12 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.10 | 49.20 | 50.10 | | 20251231 | 2025/12 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.20 | 49.50 | 52.20 | | 20251215 | 2025/11 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 24888.00 8178.00 | 23288.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251212 | 2025/11 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 10.60 | 12.70 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, China's economy is expected to experience a structural adjustment with a focus on sustainable growth, supported by proactive fiscal and monetary policies [1][4]. Economic Growth and Indicators - The overall economic performance in 2025 laid a solid foundation for 2026, with GDP growth expected around 5.1% [2]. - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December 2025 showed manufacturing PMI at 50.1%, non-manufacturing PMI at 50.2%, and composite PMI at 50.7%, indicating a recovery in economic sentiment [2]. Structural Adjustments and New Economic Drivers - In 2026, the "three new economies" (new industries, new business formats, and new business models) are projected to surpass the real estate economy in GDP contribution for the first time [3]. - The focus will shift from absolute growth to structural adjustments, with policies aimed at enhancing consumption patterns and boosting consumer confidence [3]. Fiscal Policy Initiatives - The central government plans to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, including the issuance of long-term special bonds and consumer subsidies to stimulate demand [4]. - The first batch of 62.5 billion yuan in special bonds was allocated before the New Year to support consumption during peak periods [4]. Monetary Policy Directions - The People's Bank of China is expected to continue with interest rate cuts, potentially reducing rates by 0.3 percentage points in 2026 [5]. - Structural monetary policies will focus on directing financial resources towards innovation, manufacturing upgrades, and supporting small and micro enterprises [5]. Policy Coordination and Long-term Growth - Recent policy measures are designed to address current economic challenges while laying a foundation for long-term growth through investment in new productive forces and social welfare [6]. - The coordinated approach of fiscal and monetary policies aims to activate domestic demand and accelerate industrial upgrades [6].

Economic Outlook - The global economy is at a critical juncture, with a potential slowdown in recovery expected by 2026, characterized by weakening momentum, increased risks, and intertwined challenges [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts a decrease in global economic growth rate to 3.1% in 2026, down by 0.1 percentage points from 2025, with developed economies growing at 1.6% and emerging markets at 4.0% [2][4] Trade and Demand - Global trade faces significant challenges, with the World Trade Organization (WTO) forecasting a sharp decline in global goods trade growth from 2.4% in 2025 to 0.5% in 2026, nearly stagnating [2][3] - The contraction in global demand, particularly from North America and Asia, is a major drag on international trade, compounded by the rise of trade protectionism [3] Fiscal Policy - Global fiscal policies are expected to continue expanding, with IMF projecting fiscal deficits for developed economies to rise to 4.9% of GDP and 5.9% for emerging markets in 2026 [4] - Governments face challenges in fiscal consolidation due to weak economic growth and political pressures, leading to a gradual adjustment strategy [4] Monetary Policy - Central banks are entering a phase of highly differentiated and uncertain monetary policy paths, with the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan taking cautious approaches, while the Federal Reserve's policy direction remains a key source of global uncertainty [5] Financial Risks - The overall risk in international financial markets is rising, with interconnectedness heightening the potential for rapid risk transmission [6] - The erosion of the credit foundation of the US dollar and US Treasury bonds poses deep-seated threats to global financial stability, exacerbated by rising debt levels and pressures on monetary policy independence [7] Inflation Outlook - Global inflation is projected to decline in 2025, but uncertainties will increase in 2026, with IMF forecasting CPI growth rates of 4.2% globally, 2.5% for developed economies, and 5.3% for emerging markets [7] - Major economies, particularly the US, face potential inflation rebound risks due to previous unilateral tariff policies and political pressures for short-term economic growth [7] China's Economic Role - In 2026, China is expected to contribute approximately 30% to global economic growth, maintaining its role as a stabilizing force in the global economy [8]

2026年已经启幕，中国经济站在了新的发展起点上。今年我国经济将呈现怎样的走势？财政政策、货币 政策又将如何为经济增长保驾护航？《证券日报》记者就此采访了多位首席经济学家，进行深入解读。 经济增长重在结构性调整 政策持续激活内需增长动力 近期召开的中央经济工作会议指出，"要继续实施更加积极的财政政策""要继续实施适度宽松的货币政 策"。 "财政政策方面，全国财政工作会议细化落实举措，超长期特别国债发行与国补落地见效。"温彬认为， 2025年12月27日至28日，全国财政工作会议在北京召开，明确"2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政 策"。"更加积极"导向既体现在资金规模扩容，更凸显于资金使用效益提升。 政策落地层面，超长期特别国债已率先发力，首批625亿元资金于元旦前下达，精准覆盖岁末年初消费 旺季。国补政策同步落地，明确消费品以旧换新补贴标准，将汽车补贴调整为按价格比例发放、家电补 贴聚焦高能效产品，同时扩大数码智能产品补贴范围，通过统一全国补贴标准助力全国统一大市场建 设，政策从阶段性稳增长措施转向内需体系常态化安排。 "2026年适度宽松的货币政策将有两个主要方向。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对记者表示， ...

利多出尽，关注价格高位 回落风险 贵金属月报 2025/01/04 0755-23375141 zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 钟俊轩（宏观金融组） CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及行情展望 04 宏观经济数据 02 市场回顾 05 贵金属价差 03 利率与流动性 06 贵金属库存 01 月度评估及行情展望 月度总结 沪金指数前期在三角收敛末端向上突破，但当前短期上涨趋势已被破坏，在价格下跌的同时持仓量显著回落， 国际金价短期来看仍具备一定的回调空间，关注下方943元/克一线支撑。 资料来源：文华财经、五矿期货研究中心 ◆ 月度行情总结：本月贵金属价格呈现加速上涨后的冲高回落态势，国际银价表现尤为突出，12月1日至30日，COMEX白银主力合约价格上涨 25.5%至76.02美元/盎司，在盘中触及82.67美元/盎司的历史新高。同期沪银主力合约价格上涨25.71%至17074元/千克，并在盘中触及19998 元/千克的历史新高。对比之下，国际金价的涨幅则相对有限，统计期内COMEX黄金主力合约价格上涨2.2%至4352.3美元/盎 ...

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Treasury bond futures market showed a pattern of oscillating downward, the yield curve became steeper, and the TL contract broke below the support platform. In the medium term, due to reasons such as the relatively restrained monetary policy of the central bank, the change in inflation expectations, the orientation of long - and medium - term capital entry into the market, and the inability to falsify the 14th Five - Year Plan policy expectations, the view of an overall oscillating and bearish trend is maintained [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - This week, the Treasury bond futures market showed an oscillating downward pattern, with the yield curve becoming steeper and the TL contract breaking below the support platform. In the medium term, due to factors like the central bank's relatively restrained monetary policy, inflation expectation change, long - and medium - term capital inflow orientation, and unfalsifiable 14th Five - Year Plan policy expectations, the overall view is oscillating and bearish [1][3]. - The market showed a differentiated feature of short - end stability and increased long - end volatility this week. Short - end interest rates were supported by loose liquidity, while the long - end was pressured by policy expectations. After the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Office proposed to implement a "more proactive fiscal policy" in 2026 on December 25th, market concerns about the supply pressure of ultra - long bonds increased. Currently, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds has risen to a nearly two - year high, and the value of the ultra - long end is emerging [5]. 3.2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking - Not provided 3.3. Seat Analysis - On December 29th, the market opening was expected to trigger a quantitative selling signal, leading to an increase in trading volume. Private funds reduced their positions intraday, intensifying the position reduction of allocation - type institutions. Currently, the cost - effectiveness of the ultra - long end is gradually emerging, and various institutions have a slight willingness to test positions intraday [10].

中国银河证券研究表示，中央经济工作会议指出，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。全国财政工作会议 对2026年财政政策进行了进一步部署。当前，国内经济底层逻辑正在从土地财政全面转向因地制宜发展 新质生产力，这个过程中财政政策的重要性愈发显现。从2023年内增发国债到2024年发行超长期特别国 债再到2025年提高狭义赤字率，财政政策在新旧动能转换过程中发挥了重要作用。展望2026年，中国银 河证券认为财政政策呈现以下特征：一是扩大支出盘子，保持必要支出强度，预计广义赤字率与2025年 基本持平；二是优化支出方向，尤其加大对于内需和科技的支持力度，灵活运用超长期特别国债和财政 贴息等工具；三是财政靠前发力，保持"早发快用"节奏，力争"十五五"元年取得良好开局。 ...

Group 1 - China will become the first economy to pay interest on central bank digital currency, with the digital yuan framework set to launch on January 1, 2026, transitioning from "digital cash" to "digital deposit currency" [1] - The People's Bank of China will implement a reduction in the interest rates for existing housing loans starting January 1, 2026, with first-time home buyers seeing rates drop to 2.1% for loans under five years and 2.6% for loans over five years [1] - The 2026 national subsidy plan has been officially released, with 62.5 billion yuan allocated for consumer goods replacement and upgrades, including new categories like smart glasses and smart home products [2] Group 2 - A significant policy change in the real estate market will lower the value-added tax on the sale of homes held for less than two years from 5% to 3%, effective January 1, 2026, which is expected to increase transaction activity in the second-hand housing market [3] - Multiple public fund institutions have released optimistic investment strategies for 2026, highlighting technology as a key investment theme, with expectations for improved overall corporate performance [2] - Silver has emerged as a standout asset in 2025, with a cumulative increase of approximately 147%, significantly outperforming gold, and analysts expect the factors supporting silver prices to remain relevant in 2026 [3]