Group 1: Monetary Data Overview - As of the end of July, the broad money supply (M2) reached 329.94 trillion yuan, growing by 8.8% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 111.06 trillion yuan, up by 5.6% year-on-year, and the currency in circulation (M0) was 13.28 trillion yuan, increasing by 11.8% year-on-year [1] - In the first seven months of 2025, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, and the total social financing scale increased by 23.99 trillion yuan, which is 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] - RMB deposits rose by 18.44 trillion yuan in the first seven months of 2025, indicating strong financial support for the real economy [1] Group 2: Government Bond Issuance and Fiscal Policy - The issuance of government bonds has accelerated, with a total of 13.3 trillion yuan issued in the first half of the year, including 7.89 trillion yuan in national bonds, a 36% increase year-on-year [2] - The proactive fiscal policy, combined with the accommodative monetary policy, has led to a reasonable growth in social financing scale and monetary credit [2] - The increase in government leverage is seen as a way to optimize the macro leverage structure while stabilizing corporate and household leverage [3] Group 3: Credit Data Analysis - Recent credit data fluctuations are influenced by seasonal factors, with July typically being a low month for credit growth [4] - It is important to analyze loan data from multiple dimensions, including cumulative growth and balance growth rates, rather than just monthly increments [5] - As of the end of July, the total RMB loan balance was 268.51 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9%, indicating stable support for the real economy [6] Group 4: Credit Structure Optimization - The structure of credit is continuously improving, with inclusive small and micro loans growing by 11.8% year-on-year and medium to long-term loans for the manufacturing sector increasing by 8.5% [6] - The financial policies are increasingly aligned with the economic structure transformation, emphasizing the quality of credit allocation [6] - The focus on key areas such as technology innovation, consumption, green finance, and inclusive finance is expected to continue driving reasonable credit growth throughout the year [7]

下半年如何把握"稳"与"进" 编者按行至半山不停步，船到中流更奋楫。继7月30日召开的中共中央政治局会议对下半年经济工作作出一系列重要部署后，7月31日召开的国务院常务会 议强调，要锚定全年发展目标任务，加力提升宏观政策效能，持续攻坚破解难题，下更大力气抓好党中央决策部署的贯彻落实。近期，国家发展改革委、 工业和信息化部、财政部、中国人民银行、人力资源和社会保障部、中国证监会等多部门召开年中会议，围绕各自领域作出具体部署。下半年经济工作有 哪些重点？如何着力抓好"四稳"？对此，中国经济时报邀请知名智库专家深入解读、把脉献策。 核心观点 下半年除了包括财政政策和货币政策在内的宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力外，还要加强与就业、产业、区域、贸易、环保、监管等政策的协调配合，打 好政策"组合拳"，发挥政策协同合力效应，促进政策从"最初一公里"到"最后一公里"的衔接畅通，为下半年巩固拓展经济回升向好势头创造条件。 ■余淼杰 今年下半年宏观政策的关键词是持续发力、适时加力。近日召开的中共中央政治局会议提出"保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性""强化宏观政策 取向一致性"，要求"宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力"。这无疑为下 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The downward trend of the yield central tendency in the bond market is difficult to reverse in the long - term due to economic pressure, but it may first decline and then rise in the short - term [4][29] - The macro - environment is still favorable for the bond market, with the possibility of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the central bank will maintain liquidity [24][29] - The resumption of VAT collection on the interest income of government bonds and other bonds has multiple meanings and will affect the bond market [6] Summary by Directory Hot - Spot Review - Starting from August 8, 2025, VAT will be resumed on the interest income of newly issued national, local, and financial bonds. The VAT rate for banks, insurance, and securities self - operating departments will change from 0 to 6%, and for public funds and other asset management products, from 0 to 3% [6] - The resumption has three meanings: releasing incremental fiscal space to ease fiscal pressure (estimated to increase annual fiscal revenue by 200 - 410 billion yuan), optimizing the bond market tax policy and strengthening the benchmark function of national bond yields, and optimizing resource allocation by guiding funds to other fields and narrowing the spreads between old and new bonds and credit spreads [6][7][9] July Interest Rate Operation Review Funds and Liquidity Monitoring - In July, the central bank's open - market operations were relatively loose, with a net capital injection of 488 billion yuan, but a decrease of 365.9 billion yuan compared to the previous month. The central bank increased reverse - repurchase operations at times of tight liquidity [11] - The central tendency of capital interest rates declined. The DR007 central tendency was 1.516%, a 6.17 - BP decline from the previous month, and the R007 central tendency was 1.5296%, a 10.35 - BP decline. The DR007 - R007 spread was at a historically low level, indicating looser non - bank liquidity [12][14] Interest - Bearing Bond Yield Review - The 10 - year national bond yield central tendency increased. At the end of the month, it reached 1.7044%, a 5.75 - BP increase from the previous month's end, and the central tendency increased by 2.66 BP to 1.68%. The term spread widened by 1.7 BP to 32.37 BP [16] - In July, the trading volume of interest - bearing bonds increased by 5.25 trillion yuan to 28.18 trillion yuan. The trading volume of national bonds increased by 1.39 trillion yuan, local bonds decreased by 195.833 billion yuan, and policy - financial bonds increased by 4.06 trillion yuan [16] Follow - up Outlook Macro - environment - The central tendency of national bond yields may continue to decline, but short - term incremental policies may drive yields up. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decline from the previous month. Consumption and investment in June showed marginal cooling [22] - The central government will accelerate the issuance and use of government bonds, and the NDRC will promote the establishment of new policy - based financial instruments, which may improve macro - data but have a negative impact on the bond market [22] Monetary Policy - The central bank will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy. There is a need for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts due to high real interest rates. The Fed may cut interest rates in the third quarter, providing space for China's monetary policy easing. The central tendency of yields may decline further this year [24] - In the short - term, the central bank will maintain liquidity by increasing open - market operations despite the accelerated issuance of government bonds [24] Bond Market Strategy - The short - term adjustment of the interest - income tax rate on national bonds may lead to a rush to buy old bonds, driving yields down, and then the yield central tendency may rise due to the tax premium [28] - The stock market's anti - involution trend and the NDRC's new policies may increase market risk appetite and have a negative impact on bond yields [29] - Enterprises planning to issue bonds can consider starting in late Q3 to reduce financing costs [29]

财政部24日发布的《2021年中国财政政策执行情况报告》显示，2021年，全国一般公共预算收入首 次突破20万亿元，达到20.25万亿元，比上年增长10.7%，与2019年相比增长6.4%，完成收入预算并有一 定超收。其中，中央一般公共预算收入9.15万亿元，同比增长10.5%；地方一般公共预算本级收入11.1 万亿元，同比增长10.9%。 报告指出，2022年，积极的财政政策要提升效能，更加注重精准、可持续，重点做好六个方面工 作：一是实施更大力度减税降费，增强市场主体活力。围绕中小微企业、个体工商户和制造业等重点行 业，坚持以阶段性政策为主，与制度性措施相结合，兼顾财政承受能力和助企需要，实施更大力度的减 税降费。二是保持适当支出强度，提高支出精准度。财政赤字保持在合理水平，扩大财政支出规模。大 力优化支出结构，重点支持科技攻关、生态环保、基本民生、区域重大战略、现代农业和国家"十四 五"规划重大项目。三是合理安排地方政府专项债券，支持重点项目建设。四是加大中央对地方转移支 付，兜牢基层"三保"底线。五是坚持党政机关过紧日子，节俭办一切事业。六是严肃财经纪律，整饬财 经秩序。 报告显示，受经济稳定恢复和价 ...

得益于货币政策与财政政策协同发力，近期市场资金面更加宽松。一些代表性货币市场利率指标纷 纷下行，自发实现"降息"效果。 另外，中泰证券、天风证券等机构分析，央行加快上缴结存利润等因素可能在4月中上旬资金面改善过 程中发挥重要作用。央行于3月表示，今年将向中央财政上缴结存利润，总额超1万亿元。据新华社报 道，截至4月中旬，央行已上缴6000亿元，主要用于留抵退税和向地方政府转移支付，相当于投放基础 货币6000亿元。"央行上缴利润，带来流动性超常规投放。"天风证券首席固收分析师孙彬彬说。 随着货币市场利率集体下行，其运行中枢下移，与政策利率的倒挂加重。据统计，4月，DR007和1年期 股份行同业存单利率的月度平均值分别为1.82%、2.48%，分别比3月降低27个基点和14个基点，分别比 7天期央行逆回购利率和1年期中期借贷便利（MLF）利率低28个基点和37个基点。 "货币市场利率已自发地'降息'"，4月央行政策利率未见下调，但有市场人士这样评论货币市场利率下 台阶的现象。 形成共振 资金面宽松成为近期市场参与者的共同感受。他们认为，这主要是货币政策与财政政策协同发力的结 果。 一方面，货币投放多措并举。4月 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank is expected to continue using targeted structural monetary policy tools to support enterprises affected by the pandemic, with a focus on increasing loan support for private enterprises to restore effective financing demand and assist in reshaping the industrial chain [2][3] - The possibility of lowering the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is anticipated, as it would have a significant impact on stabilizing housing loans and expectations, especially given the current weak credit structure [3] - The monetary policy will also focus on stabilizing employment, prices, and promoting domestic demand while mitigating risks, which requires support for struggling industries and enhancing effective investment [3] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Developments - Fiscal policy is expected to continue to be strengthened in the second half of the year, with the issuance of special bonds reaching 34,062 billion yuan in the first half, completing 98.7% of the allocated quota [4] - There is potential for increasing the issuance of special bonds or advancing the issuance of next year's special bonds to address economic pressures [4][5] - The use of special bonds is anticipated to accelerate, with expectations for infrastructure investment and tax reductions to alleviate fiscal pressure [5][6]

Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth - China's fiscal policy has shifted to a more proactive stance, with increased funding and support aimed at stimulating consumption and investment [2][3] - The government has allocated 300 billion yuan in special bonds to support the consumption upgrade policy, which is an increase of 150 billion yuan from the previous year [2] - In the first half of the year, over 66 million consumers participated in the consumption upgrade program, purchasing more than 109 million units of 12 categories of home appliances [2] Group 2: Investment in Infrastructure and Technology - The Guangdong Shantou International Textile City project received 190 million yuan in local government special bond funding, facilitating its progress [3] - The government has arranged 200 billion yuan in long-term special bonds for equipment upgrades, which is an increase of 50 billion yuan from last year, benefiting approximately 7,500 projects [5] - The Shandong Province New Momentum Fund has invested over 30 billion yuan in more than 390 projects in digital economy and artificial intelligence sectors [7] Group 3: Support for Employment and Livelihood - In Nanchong City, 1.14 billion yuan in entrepreneurial guarantee loans were issued, supporting 378 individuals to start businesses and creating 27,500 jobs [8] - Nationally, social security and employment expenditures reached 24,504 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2% [9] - The focus on enhancing the quality of life through fiscal spending is expected to stimulate economic growth and create a positive cycle between economic development and livelihood improvement [9]

新华社北京7月25日电 题：充分释放财政政策推动高质量发展的效能 新华社记者申铖 【纠错】 【责任编辑:施歌】 财政政策是宏观调控的关键工具。近年来，在世界经济复苏乏力的大背景下，财政政策在很多国家 宏观调控工具箱中的主体地位日益凸显，成为推动经济行稳致远的关键手段。 积极发挥财政政策护航经济"稳"的重要功能。赤字水平和赤字规模均为近年最高，上半年新增地方 政府专项债券发行超2万亿元，下达1620亿元超长期特别国债资金推动消费品以旧换新，中央金融机构 注资特别国债发行，债务置换政策落实落细……面对复杂的国内外形势，今年我国财政政策从"积极"转 向"更加积极"，政策力度更大、强度更高，在扩投资、促消费、防风险等方面持续发力。展望后续，国 际环境仍然复杂多变、不稳定性不确定性增加，要根据形势变化和经济情景变化相机抉择、"开准药 方"，将更加积极的财政政策用好用足。 积极发挥财政政策推动发展"进"的关键作用。持续强化对教育和科技的支持，上半年教育、科学技 术支出同比增长5.9%、9.1%；完善各项惠企助企政策；进一步完善横向生态保护补偿机制……今年以 来，财政更加着力"增后劲"，推动高质量发展"成色"更足。当前，" ...

贷款期限结构得到改善 央行数据显示，6月份，人民币贷款增加2.81万亿元，同比多增6867亿元。 具体到6月份来看，人民币贷款增加2.81万亿元，同比多增6867亿元；社会融资规模增量为5.17万亿 元，比上年同期多1.47万亿元。这两项数据也创下历史同期新高。 民生银行首席经济学家温彬在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，随着各项稳增长政策落地实施， 金融机构持续加大对实体经济支持力度，信贷有效需求显著回升，信贷结构明显优化，6月份金融数据 整体超出市场预期，预示宏观经济继续复苏向好。 7月11日，中国人民银行（以下简称"央行"）发布2022年上半年金融数据。上半年，人民币贷款增 加13.68万亿元，同比多增9192亿元；社会融资规模增量累计为21万亿元，比上年同期多3.2万亿元。6月 末，广义货币(M2)余额258.15万亿元，同比增长11.4%。 6月份，企（事）业单位中长期贷款增加约1.45万亿元，同比逆转上月少增局面。 "这显示出企业资本开支类支出景气度有所回升。"温彬表示，6月份稳增长配套政策应出尽出，基 建融资力度强化，政策性银行调增8000亿元信贷额度，地方专项债加快发行并推动尽快形成实物工作 量 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the implementation of a "more proactive fiscal policy" to ensure stable economic operation and enhance fiscal spending efficiency [1][3] - The government aims to maintain a high level of fiscal spending by expanding the fiscal deficit and increasing government debt, which can directly promote economic growth and boost market confidence [1][2] - There is a need to optimize and adjust fiscal and tax policies to ensure resources are concentrated in key areas, thereby improving the effectiveness of fiscal spending [1][2] Group 2 - The article highlights the importance of deepening the legal, standardized, scientific, and standardized management of fiscal policies to achieve greater results with the same level of spending [2][3] - Emphasis is placed on performance management and the establishment of a performance evaluation system to supervise and assess the effectiveness of fiscal fund usage [2][3] - The need for fiscal discipline is stressed, particularly in addressing local government violations regarding guarantees and debt [2][3] Group 3 - The proactive fiscal policy faces challenges such as short-term effects, diminishing policy impacts, and increasing revenue-expenditure contradictions [3][4] - The article suggests that fiscal policy should support innovative development in "pilot" regions to drive high-quality development across all areas [4][5] - Recommendations include enhancing the quality of fiscal resources and optimizing the structure of fiscal spending to ensure a more proactive approach [5][6] Group 4 - The article advocates for a long-term perspective in fiscal policy implementation, emphasizing the need for sustainable economic and fiscal development [3][4] - It suggests that local governments should manage state-owned resources effectively and utilize various methods to optimize asset management [5][6] - The importance of investing in human capital through supportive policies for employment and housing is highlighted as a means to stimulate consumption and economic growth [6]