瑞银全球财富管理公司的Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi：我们预计随着贸易和财政政策相关的新闻不断出 现，市场将继续进一步波动。 我们仍预期美股在未来12个月将会上涨，但今年近期内的涨幅可能较为有限。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal policy in China has been actively implemented in the first four months of 2023, with a significant increase in fiscal expenditure compared to revenue, supporting economic resilience in April [2][3]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first four months of 2023, the total national broad fiscal revenue reached 93,202 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 1.3%, while broad fiscal expenditure was 119,717 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of about 7.2% [2][5]. - The fiscal revenue shortfall compared to expenditure was approximately 26,515 billion yuan, which represents a year-on-year increase of about 54% [2][5]. - The general public budget expenditure was 93,581 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, slightly above the annual budget growth rate of 4.4% [3][4]. Government Debt and Financing - The government has accelerated bond issuance to support fiscal expenditure, with net financing of government bonds reaching 48,500 billion yuan in the first four months, an increase of 35,800 billion yuan year-on-year [6][9]. - Local government bond issuance totaled approximately 35,354 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of about 84%, the highest in recent years [6][9]. Economic Support Measures - The fiscal expenditure has been directed towards social security, employment, and education, with social security and employment spending around 17,000 billion yuan, up 8.5% year-on-year, and education spending approximately 15,000 billion yuan, up 7.4% year-on-year [4][5]. - Infrastructure investment has shown stable growth at 5.8%, supported by the acceleration of local government special bond issuance [4][5]. Future Outlook - The central government has indicated a need for more proactive macroeconomic policies, including the acceleration of local government special bonds and long-term special bonds [9][12]. - Experts predict that the fiscal policy will continue to be a crucial support for economic resilience in the second quarter, with potential for new debt policies to be introduced later in the year [12][13].

亚洲时段5月29日（周四），国际金价延续弱势震荡，纸黄金价格盘中下探750.72元/克，截至发稿时报 757.85元/克，日内跌幅0.61%。市场对美联储6月降息的预期已降至冰点，联邦基金利率期货显示，6月降 息概率仅存2.2%，7月降息概率也回落至24%，交易员押注美联储最可能在9月启动宽松周期。 降息预期降温施压金价避险属性遭遇双重考验 技术面：关键支撑阻力区间明确警惕短期回调风险 从盘面看，纸黄金日线级别呈现震荡回落态势，上方需密切关注785-795元/克区域阻力，该区间汇集前期 高点及布林带上轨压力。下方重要支撑则聚焦730-740元/克区间，若失守该区域，可能打开进一步回调空 间。技术指标方面，MACD高位死叉、RSI指标自超买区域回落，显示短期调整压力尚未释放完毕。 后市展望：降息交易或延后黄金配置需择时 当前市场正处于"经济数据验证期"与"政策预期修正期"的双重叠加阶段。建议投资者重点关注两大变量： 一是美联储官员后续讲话对通胀表述的边际变化，二是核心PCE数据能否确认通胀下行趋势。在降息时点 进一步明晰前，黄金或维持高位宽幅震荡，配置机会需等待技术面与基本面共振节点。 财政政策不确定性叠加经济 ...

Macroeconomic Overview - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that the Trump administration's "Day of Liberation" tariff policy exceeded its authority, leading to a suspension of its implementation, emphasizing that presidential trade management powers cannot surpass those granted to Congress by the Constitution [1] - This lawsuit, initiated by five small import businesses, marks the first significant legal challenge against the tariff policy, with seven similar lawsuits ongoing [1] - The ruling has alleviated market concerns regarding the trade war, resulting in a rise in U.S. stock index futures, with the Nasdaq futures increasing by 1.8% [1] - The dollar index surpassed the 100 mark, reflecting a positive market sentiment following Trump's postponement of tariffs on the EU and an agreement with China to reduce tariffs [1] - The Federal Reserve's May meeting minutes indicate officials are grappling with the dual challenges of rising inflation and unemployment, with a 60% probability of a rate cut in September [1] - Despite gold prices rising by 26% this year, the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve has suppressed gold prices [1] - Consumer confidence data exceeded expectations, reinforcing a robust economic outlook, while investors are focused on upcoming GDP, PCE data, and fiscal policy developments [1] Dollar Index - On Wednesday, the dollar index showed an upward trend, reaching a high of 99.933 and a low of 99.414, closing at 99.865 [2] - The market exhibited a bullish sentiment after a brief period of fluctuation, with a significant rise in the U.S. trading session [2] - Key resistance levels to watch include 100.20, with a focus on whether the index can maintain this level [2] - The weekly analysis indicates resistance at 101.70, suggesting a potential bearish trend in the medium term [2] Gold Market - Gold prices experienced a decline on Wednesday, with a high of 3325 and a low of 3276.48, closing at 3288.35 [4] - The market showed a bearish trend after testing key resistance levels, leading to a significant downward movement [4] - Current support levels are identified at 3270, with a focus on potential further declines if this level is breached [5] Euro/USD - The Euro/USD pair showed a downward trend on Wednesday, with a low of 1.1283 and a high of 1.1344, closing at 1.1289 [6] - The market remains under pressure due to resistance levels, indicating a bearish outlook [6] - Long-term support is noted at 1.0800, while short-term focus is on the 1.1130 area [6] Key Financial Data and Events - Upcoming key financial events include the Bank of England Governor Bailey's speech, Canadian current account data, U.S. initial jobless claims, and revisions to U.S. GDP [11]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently influenced by the rebound of the US dollar index and a decrease in international trade tensions, with a focus on US fiscal and monetary policy outlooks. Short-term gold prices are constrained by the dollar, interest rate expectations, and economic data, while long-term trends remain bullish due to potential declines in real yields under the Federal Reserve's easing policies [1][3]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced significant fluctuations, with a peak at 3315 before a rapid decline, reaching a low of 3250 after a major sell-off triggered by the halt of tariff policies [1][3]. - The daily chart indicates a bearish trend with a recorded daily candle, but prices remain above key support levels, suggesting a potential for stabilization and a bullish outlook in the longer term [4]. - Short-term indicators show a V-shaped recovery after touching 3250, with resistance levels identified at 3280-3290 and support at 3230-3220 [4]. Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices are also experiencing volatility, influenced by industrial demand and macroeconomic factors. Key support is at 32.5, with resistance at 34. A failure to hold the support could lead to a drop to 31.50 [6]. - The recommendation for silver trading is to focus on buying on dips while considering selling on rebounds, with short-term resistance at 33.20-33.35 and support at 32.65-32.50 [6].

-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——震荡偏弱 焦煤——震荡偏弱 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 煤焦现货再次下调，盘面增仓下行 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 29 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 相关资讯： 1. 美国联邦法院当地时间 5 月 28 日阻止了美国总统特朗普在 4 月 2 号宣布的关税政 策生效，并裁定其对美国出口多于进口的国家征收全面关税的行为越权。 焦煤： 现货下调，期货下行。蒙 5#主焦煤报 920 元/吨(-50)。活跃合约报 779 元/吨(-20.5)。 基差 161 元/吨(-29.5)，9-1 ...

黄金1小时均线继续死叉向下的空头发散，昨天我们就说了，一旦黄金1小时均线形成死叉向下，那么新 的下跌空间将打开，果然如期继续大跌，黄金空头现在气势正盛，反弹就是给继续空的机会。前几天我 们也开始说黄金已经开始有头肩顶结构的雏形，现在跌破头肩顶结构的颈线位，那么黄金短期顶部形态 确立，黄金颈线位阻力3285一线压制下都是逢高继续空。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上金晟富建 议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注3323-3325一线阻力，下方短期重点关注3280-3250 一线支撑，各位朋友一定要跟上节奏。要控制好仓位及止损问题、严格设止损，切勿抗单操作。具体点 位以盘中实时为主，欢迎前来体验，交流实时行情，进群关注实时单。 换资前言： 方向不对，努力白费，能让你生气的行情，说明你还没有驾驭的能力，震荡的时候想单边，单边的时候 想反转，你的习惯将是你最大的弱点，不要总是与行情对着干，多总结经验，暂时的失利，不代表什 么，经验靠积累，一个优秀的分析师会让你少走很多弯路。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周四（5月29日）亚市早盘，现货黄金震荡下跌，一度跳水逾30美元，失守325 ...

（原标题：蒋飞：论降息的重要性） ???核心观点 自5月8日央行降息以来，对今年剩余月份是否继续降息的讨论仍未结束。乐观者认为经济已经企稳，不 再需要降息这种"激进"的货币政策；悲观者认为稳经济压力持续存在，降息周期并未结束。本文我们将 通过这次降息，来讨论降息的重要性。 从当下稳经济的角度出发，降息顺应了资金供需变化的要求，起到稳定房地产市场的作用，提振国内投 资和消费以对冲外需不确定性。当然这种降息更是兑现了长期降息大周期的趋势，在人口、债务、经济 结构等影响中长期基本面因素改善之前的必然选择。 但降息解决不了利率传导不畅、杠杆率持续走高、银行净息差不断缩窄、国内外利差扩大的问题。我们 认为降息是货币政策工具箱里的一种，宏观调控不单单只有货币政策，不能对降息苛刻太多。 我国目前仍有降息空间。根据我们在《财政政策和货币政策的配合（2）》的测算，要让2025年政府杠 杆率不增加，实际利率应该下降至0.32%。这与今年一季度实际利率4.52%（金融机构贷款加权平均利 率：一般贷款-GDP平减指数）相差仍然很大，相对应的政府杠杆率继续上升了2.4个百分点至63.2%。 而在《中国财政可持续性研究》中我们发现，中国 ...

一、宏观动态 宏观政策：财政政策更积极，赤字率提至4%，专项债限额4.4万亿，超长期特别国债1.3万亿；货币政策适度宽松，央行一季度净投放3.02万亿元，3月MLF 改革，利率市场化再进一步。 宏观数据：经济景气回升，3月综合PMI 51.4%，投资消费回暖，社融增量创同期新高，但进出口承压，通胀温和，M1-M2剪刀差扩大。 基准利率：10年期国债收益率震荡上行，受经济预期、政策及资金面影响，3月因MLF改革等因素波动。 人民币汇率：对美元升值，对欧元、日元贬值，受中美政策、贸易顺差等因素影响。 二、债券市场 一级市场：发行规模12.19万亿元，同比增21.8%，地方政府债增69.07%，信用债发行降5.07%，成本双降，产业债中公用事业增108.53%，城投债发行收 缩，央企融资提升，民企净流出。 二级市场：信用债成交环比降18.3%，利差整体收窄但震荡大，产业债多数行业利差收窄，城投债仅河北微升，整体收窄30.15bp。 三、违约与评级调整 违约：1家企业首次违约，2家展期，违约金额20亿元，集中于汽车零售和多元金融行业。 评级调整：国内上调10家（城投占半），国际上调3家；国内下调7家，国际下调11家， ...

Group 1 - The international gold market experienced significant selling pressure, with spot gold prices dropping below the critical psychological level of $3300 per ounce, reaching a low of $3390 due to a rebound in the US dollar index and easing international trade tensions [2] - Despite a slight recovery to around $3308 driven by bargain buying, market attention remains focused on international trade dynamics, US fiscal policy outlook, and Federal Reserve monetary policy [2] - Short-term gold price movements are influenced by the US dollar, interest rate expectations, and economic data, with the $3300 level being crucial for market sentiment [2] Group 2 - The gold price faced downward pressure as it tested trendline resistance multiple times without breaking, leading to a decline and breaking the support level at $3320 [4] - On the daily chart, gold prices are consolidating at high levels around $3350, with MACD indicators showing bearish pressure, and the Bollinger Band's middle line support at $3287 is critical [4] - The four-hour chart indicates a shift from a five-wave to a three-wave structure, suggesting a corrective phase, with key resistance at $3320 and potential further declines towards the $3270-$3250 range [5]