2025.12. 12 本文字数：3533，阅读时长大约6分钟 此前多位接受第一财经采访的专家表示，明年财政赤字率预计将不会低于2025年的4%，并继续适度 增加发行超长期特别国债、地方政府专项债券等，使得明年新增政府债务规模超过2025年的约12万 亿元，比如可能在13万亿元至16万亿元。此举将扩大财政支出，比如明年全国一般公共预算支出有 望超过30万亿元，增速在4%~5%左右，发挥财政政策稳增长、扩内需、惠民生的重要作用。 作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 陈益刊 杜川 一年一度的中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向 上，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力 度，提升宏观经济治理效能。 会议部署了八大重点任务，包括坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场；坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新 动能；坚持改革攻坚，增强高质量发展动力活力；坚持对外开放，推动多领域合作共赢；坚持协调发 展，促进城乡融合和区域联动；坚持"双碳"引领，推动全面绿色转型；坚持民生为大，努力为人民群 众多办实事；坚持守牢底线，积极稳妥化解重点领域风险。 "坚持内需主导， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After the Fed's interest rate cut, the US dollar index fell, and commodities generally strengthened, with gold, silver, and copper rising significantly, while oil prices continued to adjust under the expectation of loose supply and demand. In China, the central economic work conference emphasized "seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency," and the policy in 2026 will still focus on "stability" [2][3]. - The continued strengthening of the interest rate cut expectation supported the rise of precious metals, and the silver price reached a new high. The central economic work conference released positive signals, and the copper price is expected to continue to run strongly at a high level in the short term. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to inventory reduction, while the alumina price continues to be weak due to oversupply [4][6][8]. - The zinc price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the tightening of zinc ore supply and the decline of social inventory. The lead price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate due to low inventory and differentiated consumption. The tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to favorable fundamentals [12][13][14]. - The industrial silicon price is expected to decline weakly due to the weakening of demand. The steel price is expected to fluctuate due to general industrial data. The iron ore price is expected to be under pressure due to strong supply and weak demand. The double - coke price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the weakening of demand in the off - season [16][17][18]. - The soybean meal futures are expected to stop falling and stabilize and enter a shock operation due to good soybean auction results. The palm oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to the rise of rapeseed oil and the expected increase in palm oil inventory [21][24]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomics - Overseas: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 44,000 to 236,000, the largest single - week increase in four and a half years. The stock market showed a differentiated trend, and the US dollar index fell to 98.1 after the Fed's interest rate cut [2]. - Domestic: The central economic work conference emphasized "seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency," and the policy in 2026 will still focus on "stability." The A - share market fell on Thursday, and the bond market continued to rebound and repair [3]. Precious Metals - On Thursday, international precious metal futures continued to rise. COMEX gold futures rose 2.00% to $4309.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 4.83% to $63.98 per ounce. The market's bet on the continued interest rate cut in January was strengthened, and the silver price reached a new high, driving the synchronous rise of gold, platinum, and palladium [4]. Copper - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai copper continued to rise, and LME copper broke through the $11,800 line. The macro environment at home and abroad improved, and the supply of concentrates continued to tighten. It is expected that the copper price will continue to run strongly at a high level in the short term [6][7]. Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 21,970 yuan per ton, up 0.23%. The aluminum ingot inventory continued to decline, mainly due to transportation problems in the northwest. The low inventory supported the aluminum price to fluctuate strongly [8]. Alumina - On Thursday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2,469 yuan per ton, down 1.4%. The alumina market is in an oversupply pattern, and the market short - selling atmosphere is strong, so the price continues to be weak [10]. Cast Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 20,965 yuan per ton, up 0.36%. The raw material supply is tight, the consumption is weak, and the demand side is waiting and seeing. It is expected that the cast aluminum price will fluctuate at a high level [11]. Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc first rose and then fell during the day and rebounded sharply at night. The supply of zinc ore continued to tighten, the processing fees at home and abroad were under pressure, and the social inventory decreased. It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate strongly in the short term [12]. Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated narrowly during the day and sideways at night. The production of primary and secondary lead smelters decreased, and the social inventory was at a low level, but the consumption was differentiated. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate and consolidate [13]. Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated narrowly during the day and closed up at night. The supply of tin ore was affected by the conflict in Congo - Kinshasa, and the demand for AI semiconductors was optimistic. It is expected that the tin price will fluctuate strongly [14]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, industrial silicon fluctuated narrowly. The supply is converging, and the demand is weakening. The establishment of a polysilicon platform company may drag down the short - term demand. It is expected that the industrial silicon price will decline weakly [15][16]. Steel (Spiral and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures fluctuated and fell. The industrial data was average, and the supply and demand were both weak. It is expected that the steel price will fluctuate [17]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures fluctuated and fell. The demand was weak, the supply was strong, and the inventory increased. It is expected that the iron ore price will be under pressure [18]. Double - Coke (Coking Coal and Coke) - On Thursday, double - coke futures fluctuated weakly. The demand in the off - season was weak, the supply was strong, and the inventory increased. It is expected that the double - coke price will fluctuate weakly [19]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the 05 contract of soybean meal closed flat, and the 05 contract of rapeseed meal rose 0.35%. The soybean auction results were good, and there was news that the customs clearance time of imported soybeans might be extended. It is expected that the soybean meal futures will stop falling and stabilize and enter a shock operation [20][21]. Palm Oil - On Thursday, the 01 contract of palm oil rose 0.44%. The production of Malaysian palm oil in early December increased, and the inventory was expected to rise. The rapeseed oil price rose due to quarantine problems. It is expected that the palm oil price will fluctuate within a range [23][24].

1. 据新华社，中央经济工作会议在北京举行，会议指出，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规 模和支出总量，加强财政科学管理，优化财政支出结构，规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策。灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工 具。着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房等。 2. 国家矿山安全监察局河南局对渑池县梁家洼煤业有限责任公司进行现场监察发现，该矿存在重大事故隐患仍然进行生产。 国家矿山安全监察局河南局依法作出责令停产整顿2日的行政处罚（矿安监豫煤监察执法四处罚〔2025〕112101号）。 3. 据蒙古国相关媒体报道，蒙古国政府在12月10日的政府会议上就增加2026年煤炭出口做出多项决议。2026年蒙古国煤炭出 口计划9000万吨，2027年随着边境铁路的投入运营，煤炭出口量将努力达到1亿吨。 4. 花旗：随着经合组织库存逐渐累积，油价可能在2026年第一季度前进一步回落至均价60美元/桶。预测布伦特原油价格在 2025年底将跌至60美元/桶，现对2026年油价转为中性展望。预计布伦特原油年均价为62美元/桶，全年价格主要维持在55-65 美元/桶区 ...

中信证券表示，2025年中央经济工作会议提出要"苦练内功"，预计2026年财政政策将继续保持支持力度，内需主导、创新驱动和改革攻坚将是重点任务。债 市方面，预计2026年初债市的胜率和赔率将有阶段性上修，反映出市场对政策的积极预期。整体来看，政策的灵活性和高效性将为债市提供支撑。 基准国债ETF（511100）跟踪上证基准做市国债指数，选取上交所基准做市品种名单范围内的全部国债作为成分券，目前指数在各个关键性久期上选取1-3 只券，其中20年4只、30年7只、3年、10年各3只、1年、50年、5年、2年各2只，对应组合整体久期为9.37，是偏向综合性的中期国债指数。 截至2025年12月12日9:44，基准国债ETF(511100)上涨0.08%， 冲击4连涨。流动性方面，截至12月11日，基准国债ETF近1周日均成交111.40亿元。资金流入 方面，基准国债ETF近5个交易日合计"吸金"1069.68万元，最新规模达111.31亿元。 从收益能力看，截至2025年12月11日，基准国债ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为2.67%，最长连涨月数为9个月，最长连涨涨幅为6.94%，涨跌月数比为 15/8，年盈利百 ...

杨志勇表示，明年我国将继续实施更加积极的财政政策，这和今年的财政政策取向一以贯之，财政在国 家治理中的基础和重要支柱作用将得到进一步发挥。"加强财政科学管理"等安排，将更充分地释放和提 升财政政策效能，更好护航经济运行、推动经济增长目标的实现。 新华社北京12月11日电 宏观政策是护航经济稳定运行的重要手段。12月10日至11日举行的中央经济工 作会议提出，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，并明确要继续实施更加积极的财政政策，要继续实施适度 宽松的货币政策。 做好明年经济工作，政策取向备受关注。会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提 质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。 "明年的政策取向释放出'更加积极有为'的鲜明信号。"中国财政科学研究院院长杨志勇表示，宏观政策 加大调控力度，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，将更好引导发展预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量 的合理增长，为实现"十五五"良好开局打牢基础。 "保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量""加强财政科学管理"……会议明确了财政政策发力方 向。 在货币政策方面，会议也作出明确安排："把促进经 ...

2026年经济工作怎么干？ 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议（下称"会议"）在北京举行，为明年经济工作提供明确指引。 会议认为，做好新形势下经济工作，"必须充分挖掘经济潜能，必须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举，必 须做到既'放得活'又'管得好'，必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑 战。" 会议强调，做好明年经济工作，要"坚持稳中求进工作总基调"。同时，会议要求，"推动经济实现质的 有效提升和量的合理增长，保持社会和谐稳定，实现'十五五'良好开局。" 会议通稿发布之际，《财经》邀请中泰国际首席经济学家李迅雷、摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自 强、中信证券首席经济学家明明开展对话，展望2026年政策动向，并对部分重点举措进行解读。 在政策取向上，会议提出，要"坚持稳中求进、提质增效"，"加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度"。具体而 言，要继续实施"更加积极的财政政策"和"适度宽松的货币政策"。 对此，三位首席经济学家均认为，2026年财政政策有望加力，同时进一步强化"投资于人"和支持消费。 货币政策方面，三位首席均认为，明年降准降息仍有空间。其中，邢自强认为，明年政策利率有望下调 10个-20 ...

中央经济工作会议于10日至11日在北京召开，会议总结2025年经济工作，分析当前经济形势，部署2026 年经济工作。 值得注意的是，会议五次提到"金融"。会议明确要"引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小 微企业等重点领域"，同时还要"继续发挥新型政策性金融工具作用""创新科技金融服务"并"深入推进中 小金融机构减量提质"，为2026年金融工作指明了方向。 财政货币政策继续协同发力 会议明确，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，加强财政 科学管理，优化财政支出结构，规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策。重视解决地方财政困难，兜牢基层"三 保"底线。严肃财经纪律，坚持党政机关过紧日子。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬认为，会议明确"保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量"，与明 年经济工作要"提质增效"的整体基调相互呼应。温彬预计，在"更加积极"的财政政策取向下，2026年新 增政府债务规模或进一步提升至12.5万亿元左右，以支撑广义财政支出强度、兜牢基层"三保"底线；赤 字率维持在4.0%左右水平，对应赤字规模约为5.9万亿元，较上年增加约2000亿元，增加部分主要由中 央承担 ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 华西证券指出，如果将2025年的财政与货币政策节奏线性外推，债市内部或难形成明确的共识方向，市 场对通胀回升的担忧和"严监管"的推进，2026年债市可能延续25年偏弱的震荡格局，这也是当前市场较 为一致的预期。然而，一致性预期总是容易被打破。2026年可能变化的方向：一是宽财政向稳财政的转 变，如果经济增速目标下降，对应的财政赤字率也可能同步回落，由此对债券市场来说，政府债的供给 压力减轻；二是稳货币能否过渡为宽货币，进而推动债市表现超出预期。货币政策主动发力，可能需要 一些自下而上的风险事件发酵，如果没有外部因素的刺激，货币政策可能还是以稳为主。2026全年债市 行情的关键，是等待货币政策的实质性变化。从节奏上看，或是"前慢后快"，一季度（或春节前）蛰 伏，等待货币政策的变化，及消化潜在的通胀担忧，二、三季度出击，进而容易形成全年低点。 ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 中信建投研报解读2025年中央经济工作会议，财政政策延续更加积极的政策基调，总体表述偏稳。货币 政策把"物价合理回升"写进总要求，价格和传导机制被放在更加突出的位置。内需主导和国内大市场仍 是发力的关键抓手。将以制度性增收为基础进一步提振消费，明确提出推动投资止跌回稳，直面投资下 行压力。科技和产业政策方面，把建设国际科创中心和重点产业链作为两大抓手，对AI+、数字贸易、 绿色贸易、海洋经济、新型能源体系等重点产业提出了明确指向。 ...

中信建投研报解读2025年中央经济工作会议，财政政策延续更加积极的政策基调，总体表述偏稳。货币 政策把"物价合理回升"写进总要求，价格和传导机制被放在更加突出的位置。内需主导和国内大市场仍 是发力的关键抓手。将以制度性增收为基础进一步提振消费，明确提出推动投资止跌回稳，直面投资下 行压力。科技和产业政策方面，把建设国际科创中心和重点产业链作为两大抓手，对AI+、数字贸易、 绿色贸易、 海洋经济、新型能源体系等重点产业提出了明确指向。 ...