摘要周一(12月22日)欧盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4398.55一线上方，截至发稿，伦敦金暂报4410.29美 元/盎司，上涨1.67%，最高触及4419.86美元/盎司，最低下探4336.91美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短线 偏向震荡走势。 此外，房地产市场数据也间接影响黄金走势。11月美国成屋销售环比小幅增长0.5%，折合年率413万 户，但经济不确定性和高抵押贷款利率抑制了需求，库存触及八个月低点。这反映出消费者信心低迷， 密西根大学12月消费者信心指数终值为52.9，低于预期，进一步佐证了经济放缓的迹象。 地缘方面，以色列-伊朗冲突持续以及美委紧张局势升级所引发的避险需求可能进一步推动黄金属上 涨。值得注意的是，在不确定时期，交易员寻求能够保值的资产，这支撑了黄金价格。 周一(12月22日)欧盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4398.55一线上方，截至发稿，伦敦金暂报4410.29美元/盎 司，上涨1.67%，最高触及4419.86美元/盎司，最低下探4336.91美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短线偏向 震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 美联储官员观点不一为黄金走势增添了不确定性，美联储理事米兰重申应降息以应对就业市场 ...

黄金白银股盘前上涨，哈莫尼黄金涨4.4%，科尔黛伦矿业、金田涨3.6%，泛美白银涨3.4%，纽曼矿 业、巴里克矿业、埃氏金业涨2.5%。消息面上，受市场对美联储进一步降息的预期、持续的避险需求 以及美元走软的提振，现货黄金突破4420美元/盎司，屡创新高，年内累计上涨超68%；现货白银价格 突破69美元/盎司，亦创新高，年内累计上涨超140%。 美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：山上 ...

北京时间周一(12月22日)欧盘时段，美元指数交投于98.502附近，现货白银目前交投于68.87美元/盎司， 今日开盘于67.32美元/盎司，截至发稿白银价格最高上探69.44美元/盎司，最低触及67.26美元/盎司，基 本面关注明晚美国补发第三季度的GDP增速初值。 中东局势方面，据NBC新闻报道，以色列官员越来越担心伊朗正在扩大其弹道导弹计划的生产，该计 划在今年早些时候被以色列的军事袭击破坏。据一名直接了解该计划的人士和四名了解该计划的前美国 官员透露，以色列官员正准备向特朗普汇报再次攻击伊朗的选择。 另外伦敦的市场仍然紧张，预计这种紧张将持续到2026年。再加上更高的失业率(4.6%)和更疲软的收益 率，美联储明年突然有了更大的降息空间。 【晚间白银交易策略】 白银价格在早盘中交易中飙升，突破了关键阻力位，同时其在EMA50上方交易所代表的动态压力持续 存在，短期内主要看涨趋势主导，交易伴随着支撑性趋势线，同时相对强弱指标出现积极信号。尽管达 到了超买水平。 白银小时图上的相对强弱指数(RSI)位于70关口上方，表明情况可能会有所延长。100小时移动均线攀升 至65.57美元，价格保持在其上方，保持 ...

黄金白银股盘前上涨，哈莫尼黄金涨4.4%，科尔黛伦矿业、金田涨3.6%，泛美白银涨3.4%，纽曼矿 业、巴里克矿业、埃氏金业涨2.5%。消息面上，受市场对美联储进一步降息的预期、持续的避险需求 以及美元走软的提振，现货黄金突破4420美元/盎司，屡创新高，年内累计上涨超68%；现货白银价格 突破69美元/盎司，亦创新高，年内累计上涨超140%。(格隆汇) ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching historical highs, is driven by macroeconomic factors, geopolitical risks, and increased demand from central banks and investors [1][4][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of December 22, the London spot gold price has surpassed $4,400 per ounce, marking a 67% increase from early 2025 when it was below $2,600 [1]. - International gold prices have shown a volatile upward trend since early December, with a cumulative increase of approximately 4% since the beginning of the month [2]. - COMEX gold prices reached a new historical high of $4,425 per ounce on December 22, indicating strong market momentum [4]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The U.S. labor market data, including a higher-than-expected non-farm employment increase and a rising unemployment rate, has led to expectations of a dovish monetary policy in 2026, supporting gold prices [2]. - Central banks globally have continued to increase their gold holdings, with a net addition of 1,045 tons in 2024, providing fundamental support for gold prices [4]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Long-term projections suggest that gold prices could exceed $4,750 to $4,900 per ounce by 2026, driven by persistent demand and limited supply [5]. - The market anticipates a structural imbalance between rigid demand and elastic supply, which will continue to support gold prices in the coming years [5]. - However, there are concerns about potential market corrections and geopolitical developments that could impact gold prices in the short term, with expectations of a trading range between $4,250 and $4,550 per ounce [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for gold prices to continue rising through 2026, driven by several key factors including U.S. interest rate expectations, global economic deficits, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks [1][3]. Group 1: Current Gold Market Overview - In 2023, gold prices stabilized above $2,000 per ounce and surged past $4,000 in early October [3]. - Domestic gold prices have also increased, with gold jewelry exceeding 1,100 RMB per gram and gold bars surpassing 1,040 RMB per gram [3]. Group 2: Factors Supporting Gold Price Increase - **U.S. Interest Rate Expectations**: There is a 35% probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in January 2024, influenced by a lower-than-expected CPI of 2.7% and rising unemployment at 4.6% [5][7]. - **Global Economic Deficits**: The U.S. federal deficit is projected to exceed $1.8 trillion in 2025, with Japan's government debt at 260% of GDP, indicating a trend of increasing national debts [7][9]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Global official gold reserves reached 36,274 tons by Q2 2025, with significant purchases from countries like Poland and China, indicating a long-term strategic demand for gold [9][11]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: Ongoing global tensions in various regions are likely to increase the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [11]. Group 3: Institutional Predictions and Investment Strategies - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2026 to $4,900 per ounce, while Citigroup suggests a potential challenge to $5,000 in the medium to long term [17]. - Despite the long-term bullish outlook, short-term volatility is expected due to the rapid increase in gold prices from $3,000 to $4,000 this year [17][20].

Group 1 - As of January 1, 2025, the international gold price is reported at $2625.27 per ounce, while domestic gold prices are at 614.8 yuan per gram [1] - On December 22, 2025, the international gold market saw a significant increase, with spot gold prices surpassing the previous record of $4381.484 per ounce, reaching $4403.02 per ounce, marking a daily increase of over 1% [3] - The domestic gold price also rose, with spot gold reaching 990 yuan per gram, reflecting an annual increase of over 67% [3] Group 2 - The physical gold market is experiencing heightened activity, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang raising their gold prices, with daily increases exceeding 0.2% [5] - Gold-related stocks are performing well, with Hong Kong's Lingbao Gold and China National Gold rising over 6%, and A-shares like Western Gold and Shandong Gold increasing nearly 5% [5] Group 3 - The gold bull market has been prominent this year, with London gold prices increasing over 68%, achieving more than 50 historical highs and a return rate exceeding 60%, making it one of the best-performing assets globally [6] - Factors driving this surge include the restructuring of the global monetary credit system, accelerated de-dollarization, and central banks' continuous gold purchases, with China's central bank increasing its gold reserves for 13 consecutive months [6] Group 4 - Institutions are optimistic about the long-term upward trend in gold prices, with forecasts suggesting potential new highs in January 2026, and price targets reaching $4700 per ounce [8] - Goldman Sachs predicts a 14% increase in gold prices by December 2026, potentially reaching $4900 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and ongoing demand for gold as a hedge [10]

【低波动属性契合当下避险需求】 "低波动"是该策略另一关键特征。指数通过编制方法筛选历史波动较低的股票，使组合整体波动性显著低于港股大盘。 在宏观不确定性犹存、市场情绪偏谨慎的时期，这一追求稳健收益、控制回撤的特性，恰好满足了资金的避险与"求 稳"诉求，成为投资组合中理想的 "压舱石"。 【展望与配置价值】 临近岁末，具备高股息与低波动双重特征的资产成为资金重点布局方向。截至12月19日，港股红利低波ETF(520550)已 连续22个交易日获得资金净流入，年内累计净流入规模近10亿元人民币，显示出资金对其作为市场"避风港"策略的坚定 看好。 【高股息与低估值构成核心优势】 资金持续涌入的核心驱动力在于其突出的估值吸引力与股息回报。该ETF跟踪的指数最新股息率已攀升至接近7%的高 位，在全球主要市场中表现领先。这一收益水平在当前利率环境下显得尤为稀缺和具有吸引力。其成分股主要集中于经 营稳定、现金流充沛的金融、能源、公用事业等行业，经过市场调整后，形成了 "高股息、低估值" 的显著配置价值。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 综合而言，资金的持续流入反映了市场在经济复苏预期趋于理性、无风险利率下行的宏观背景 ...

消息面解读： 周一(12月22日)：国际黄金开盘先行走强，受美联储降息预期增强的提振，以及5日均线的买盘推动；虽然美 元指数早盘低开后直接走强，短期偏向回升反弹，但走势处于200日均线下方，周图及月图仍未展现出趋势性 的反转行情，因而短期走强，对于金价压力有限，方向上则是利好金价。日内无重点关注数据，将延续上周利 好因素，以及周二的美国第三季度实际GDP年化季率初值和美国10月耐用品订单月率等的预期降低，而利好金 价，故此，周初金价偏向反弹走强，操作保持低多看涨即可。 黄金走势分析： 早上开盘，黄金继续上涨，在地缘消息的影响下，再次体现出避险需求，趋势作用明显，本周依旧维持前期的 看法不变，保持多头趋势看涨，但随时注意调整的空间，所以，主思路还是低多，辅助看法是找准高点做空。 目前黄金收盘在4370附近，在相对价位中，目前是绝对的高位，上周高点在4375，历史高点在4385，所以，剧 烈关键点也就差一点点，那么，周初就关注上方高点的得失，关键点位不破，周内肯定有调整空间，调整力度 不大就看震荡，调整力度过大，有可能会在节前有市场抛盘行为，加大了调整的风险，所以，本周黄金目前是 强势，但也要谨慎对待随时的调整空 ...

12月22日，沪深两市延续温和反弹，通信、有色金属、电子板块涨幅靠前。截至11点15分，金 ETF(159834.SZ)涨1.20%。银河证券分析指出，黄金ETF配置价值凸显，核心逻辑在于：第一，美联储 连续降息周期确立，2025年末利率预期维持低位，真实利率下行持续降低黄金持有成本；第二，宏观环 境不确定性强化避险属性，在美国政策分歧加剧、日本央行加息触发套息交易逆转、全球权益市场承压 背景下，黄金作为非美资产的避险锚定作用突出；第三，工业属性与金融属性分化，下周原油及铜等工 业品受通缩交易压制，黄金作为纯金融资产将独享流动性宽松预期溢价。此外，白银虽对经济敏感度更 高，但黄金在分散系统性风险方面更具稳定性。长期看，全球央行购金趋势延续，叠加地缘因素常态化 扰动，黄金价格中枢有望维持高位。建议重点关注黄金ETF的战略配置机会，把握流动性宽松与避险需 求共振的投资窗口。展望后市，建议关注金ETF(159834.SZ)的配置机会。 资讯所属栏目还有更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 ...