证 券 研 究 报 告 有色金属行业周报（20260119-20260123） 避险升温&美联储独立性危机，金银价格再 推荐（维持） 创新高 ❑ 一、工业金属 ❑ 行业观点 2：受淡季影响和宏观扰动，铝价或震荡运行 ❑ 事件：根据钢联，1 月 23 日，SHFE 铜铝价格比为 4.18，LME 铜铝价格比为 4.08；库存看，截至 1 月 22 日，国内铝锭现货库存 76.8 万吨，环比上周四增 加 1.9 万吨，环比本周一增加 0.4 万吨，铝棒库存 22.95 万吨，环比上周四增 加 1.6 万吨，环比本周一增加 0.5 万吨；1 月 23 日 LME 库存 50.73 万吨，环 比本周一增加 22275 吨，环比上周五增加 19275 吨。从下游看，根据阿拉丁数 据，本周国内铝板带行业产能利用率为 70.39%，较上周下降 0.36 个百分点； 国内铝箔行业产能利用率为 75.52%，较上周上涨 0.77 个百分点。 观点：我们认为铝短期进入消费淡季，淡季效应在逐步显性，但是长期基本面 和宏观叙事大逻辑暂未改变，对铝价支撑强。当前看铝基本面：一是未来几年 供给刚性明显，电力扰动存量项目减产预期持续强化， ...

Core Viewpoint - The international silver price has surged dramatically, reaching historic highs, with both futures and spot prices exceeding $100 per ounce, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets and industrial applications [9][10]. Group 1: Silver Price Surge - As of January 23, 2026, the silver sales price reached 24.03 yuan per gram, with a cumulative increase of over 37% [1]. - The silver price has more than tripled since 2023, significantly increasing the recovery value of silver products [7]. - The silver price has risen over 40% in 2026 alone, reflecting strong market dynamics [9]. Group 2: Consumer Experiences - A case study from Chengdu highlights a consumer who purchased a diamond ring and received a silver thermos cup as a promotional gift; the cup's recovery value has now surpassed that of the ring due to the surge in silver prices [3][5]. - The jewelry store confirmed that promotional silver products have become increasingly valuable, with the cost of silver rising from 4-5 yuan per gram to current levels, making previously low-cost items now worth significantly more [7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The rise in silver prices is attributed to geopolitical uncertainties, increased industrial demand, and a growing fear of missing out among retail investors [10]. - In 2025, silver outperformed gold, with a nearly 150% increase in price compared to gold's 60% rise, marking the highest annual growth since 1979 [10]. - Analysts predict that silver prices could reach $120 per ounce in the near future, indicating continued bullish sentiment in the market [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that silver prices have surged, with both New York Commodity Exchange silver futures and London spot silver prices surpassing $100 per ounce, marking a historical high, and showing an increase of over 40% in 2026 [1] - The rise in silver prices is attributed to ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties, increased industrial demand, and a "fear of missing out" sentiment among retail investors, alongside structural supply gaps [1] - Analysts project that silver prices could reach a target of $120 per ounce by 2026 [1] Group 2 - The gold market is also experiencing significant price increases, with February gold futures reaching a historical high of nearly $4990 per ounce, approaching the $5000 mark [2] - Bank of America has raised its gold price target to $6000 per ounce, indicating a bullish outlook among major institutions [2]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have reached historic highs, with both futures and spot prices surpassing $100 per ounce, driven by ongoing safe-haven demand and technical buying, marking a more than 40% increase in 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current high silver prices are attributed to extreme geopolitical and economic uncertainties globally [1] - Silver is seen as a convenient way for investors to capitalize on the precious metals boom due to high gold prices [1] - Increased industrial demand, retail investor "fear of missing out," safe-haven appeal, and structural supply gaps are expected to further drive silver prices upward [1] Group 2: Future Projections - Looking ahead, silver prices are projected to potentially reach a target price of $120 per ounce by 2026 [1] Group 3: Related Market Movements - The gold futures market also saw significant activity, with February gold futures reaching a historic high of nearly $4990 per ounce, close to the $5000 mark [2] - Bank of America has raised its near-term gold price target to $6000 per ounce, indicating a bullish outlook among major institutions [2]

Core Insights - International silver prices have surpassed $100 per ounce, reaching a historic high, driven by significant market dynamics and geopolitical factors [1] Price Movement - Silver prices have increased dramatically, starting from under $30 per ounce at the beginning of 2025 to over $80 by December 28, marking a yearly increase of over 175% [1] - The price of silver futures on the New York Commodity Exchange exceeded $50 per ounce in October 2025, a level not seen since 1980, with prices doubling within two months [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver market has experienced a structural shortage for five consecutive years, with supply at 32,100 tons and demand at 35,700 tons in 2025, where industrial silver accounts for 60% of total demand [1] - Silver's dual role as both a precious metal and an industrial raw material has led to increased demand, particularly in high-tech industries such as AI data centers and electric vehicle manufacturing [1] - The supply of silver is primarily a byproduct of mining copper, lead, and zinc, making it difficult to rapidly increase supply in response to rising demand [1] Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical tensions and the U.S. imposition of tariffs have heightened market uncertainty, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like silver [1] - The phenomenon of "de-dollarization" has been observed, with central banks selling U.S. Treasury bonds and increasing gold reserves, contributing to fluctuations in the dollar index and boosting precious metal prices [1] - Analysts suggest that geopolitical instability and a generally weak dollar are key drivers behind the recent surge in silver prices [1] Market Outlook - If the fundamental supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical tensions remain unchanged, silver prices are expected to continue fluctuating at high levels [1] - The rise in silver prices reflects broader economic instability and the challenges of rebalancing in the global economy [1]

Market Performance - On January 23, COMEX silver futures rose by 7.15%, closing at $103.26 per ounce[2] - COMEX gold futures increased by 1.42%, closing at $4983.10 per ounce[2] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, including U.S. military movements towards Iran, have heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver[2] - The weakening of the U.S. dollar, which fell by 1.88% to a value of 97.51, contributed to the rise in precious metals[2] Market Expectations - The likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut on January 28 is nearly zero, with expectations for the first cut in June 2026[2] - Short-term bullish sentiment in the silver and gold markets is increasing, with silver surpassing the $100 per ounce mark and gold approaching $5000 per ounce[2] Risk Management - Despite a positive long-term outlook, short-term volatility may increase, prompting exchanges to potentially raise margin requirements and limit new positions[2] - Investors are advised to maintain long positions while managing risk effectively[2]

Group 1 - Silver prices have surpassed $100 per ounce for the first time, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets and retail market enthusiasm [1] - Spot silver rose over 7.0% to $103.32 per ounce, marking a historical high, with a weekly increase of 14.65% [1] - COMEX silver futures increased by 6.93% to $103.055 per ounce, also reaching a historical high, with a weekly gain of 16.48% [3] Group 2 - The global silver market has been in a supply shortage for five consecutive years, leading to a surge in retail buying as prices rise [4] - The recent price increase is attributed to tensions between the U.S. and European allies, and stalled negotiations regarding the Ukraine conflict, which have heightened safe-haven demand [5] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have further boosted demand for silver as a safe-haven asset [5] Group 3 - The photovoltaic industry has been a major consumer of silver due to its excellent conductivity [5] - However, rising prices have prompted some companies to reduce their silver usage [5] - According to Shanghai Metal Network, the consumption of silver in the photovoltaic sector is expected to decline by approximately 17% this year due to the use of alternative materials and a slowdown in global photovoltaic installation growth [6]

Group 1: Gold and Silver Market - The February 2026 gold futures price on the New York Commodity Exchange closed at $4983.00 per ounce, with an increase of 1.42% [1] - Continued safe-haven demand and chart-based buying, along with strong bullish technical indicators, are driving gold and silver prices higher [1] - International gold prices are approaching $5000 per ounce, while silver prices have surged past $100 per ounce, both reaching historical highs [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan raised its inflation expectations, leading to an increase in short-term bond yields, while long-term bond pressures are easing after significant sell-offs earlier in the week [1] - The Bank of Japan maintained its policy interest rate at 0.75% and adjusted four out of six inflation expectations in its latest quarterly outlook report, indicating potential future increases in borrowing costs [1] - Mixed economic data was released, with the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for January 2026 at 56.4, up from 52.9 in December but down from 71.7 in January 2025 [2] - The preliminary services PMI for January was reported at 52.5, unchanged from December, while the manufacturing PMI slightly improved to 51.9 from 51.8 in December [2]

此前，市场担忧白银可能被纳入美国关税范围，引发金属大量紧急运往纽约，并在去年10月于伦敦触发了一次历史性的"逼空行情"。 本周白银的进一步上涨，部分源于美国与欧洲盟友关系出现裂痕；旨在结束俄乌冲突的谈判尚未取得突破；持续的中东紧张局势也进一步推 高了避险需求。 贵金属价格还受到另一重利好支撑——特朗普表示，他已经完成了下一任美联储主席的面试工作，此举重新引发市场对央行独立性的担忧。 今日凌晨， 随着地缘政治风险与美元走弱，贵金属继续狂飙，叠加工业需求， 现货白银涨超7%，最高报约103美元/盎司，再创历史新高记 录， 在去年录得耀眼的147%年度最佳涨幅后今年以来延续涨势，本月迄今已涨超40%，多方势头只增不减。令人惊叹的不只是幅度，更 是神速——纽约白银自2025年4月的28美元起步，仅用9个多月便一举突破100美元大关，涨幅超260%。 随着美国总统特朗普开启第二个白宫任期，围绕贸易、地缘政治以及货币政策的不确定性不断上升，投资者对白银等贵金属的需求明显升 温。 随着价格持续走高，散户买盘明显涌入，投资者将白银视为相对便宜的"黄金替代 品 "；尤其在美国，抢购热潮甚至令部分经销商不堪重 负。 事实上 ， ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surpassed $100 per ounce for the first time, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets and retail market enthusiasm, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 40% [1] Group 1: Price Movement - On Friday, spot silver surged by 4.2%, reaching $100.29 per ounce [1] - Silver prices have more than doubled since 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The global silver market has been in a state of supply shortage for five consecutive years [1] - Retail buying has rapidly increased as prices continue to rise [1] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Recent tensions between the U.S. and European allies, along with stalled negotiations to end the Ukraine conflict, have further boosted safe-haven demand [1] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have also contributed to increased demand for silver [1] Group 4: Industry Impact - The photovoltaic (PV) industry remains a major consumer of silver due to its excellent conductivity [1] - However, rising prices have led some companies to reduce their silver usage [1] - According to Shanghai Metal Network, silver consumption in the PV industry is expected to decline by approximately 17% this year due to the use of alternative materials and a slowdown in global PV installation growth expectations [1]