转自：期货日报 地缘局势方面，中东局势出现缓和信号。10月13日，特朗普和20多国领导人出席沙姆沙伊赫和平峰会， 埃及、美国、土耳其和卡塔尔领导人签署一份文件，为停火协议提供担保。以色列、哈马斯也正在就加 沙计划的第二阶段进行谈判。然而加沙地区的深层次矛盾仍未解决，考虑到俄乌冲突持续、巴基斯坦与 阿富汗边境地区发生交火等其他事件，全球地缘风险仍处于高位。 对贵金属构成支撑的另一核心支柱，来自市场对美联储加速转向宽松的强烈预期。美联储主席鲍威尔10 月14日讲话释放"鸽派"信号，暗示可能在未来几个月停止收缩资产负债表，承认就业下行风险可能已经 上升，保留10月降息的可能性。美联储在10月8日公布9月议息纪要，纪要显示大多数官员认为在今年剩 余时间内进一步放松政策可能是合适的，不过也应关注通胀前景上行的风险。少数官员对降息持保留态 度，新任美联储理事米兰作为激进派代表则主张9月大幅降息50BP。海外市场预计，本年度美联储大概 率在10月、12月各降息1次。目前，据CME"美联储观察"的预测，美联储10月降息25BP的概率为 95.67%，直至12月累计降息50BP的概率为94.64%。这反映了海外市场对美联储将采 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a significant "short squeeze" leading to a historic price surge, with silver prices reaching a 45-year high due to extreme supply shortages and increased demand for physical silver [2][5][10]. Silver Market Dynamics - The current COMEX silver futures price rose by 3.76% to $52.525 per ounce, while London silver spot prices surpassed $53 per ounce, marking a monthly increase of over 12% and an annual increase exceeding 80% [2]. - The total holdings of major overseas silver ETFs increased from 24,957 tons on February 6 to 28,484 tons on October 13, reflecting a 14.13% rise, while the LBMA silver inventory was only 24,581 tons, indicating a significant supply shortage [2][3]. - Since mid-2019, the freely available silver inventory in London has plummeted by 75% from approximately 850 million ounces to around 200 million ounces, creating immense pressure on short positions [4]. Rental Rates and Delivery Pressures - The rental rate for one-month silver in London surged to over 30%, with overnight borrowing costs exceeding 100% at times, indicating the high cost of borrowing silver for delivery [4][6]. - The "short squeeze" is driven by two main factors: a surge in delivery demand for COMEX silver futures and a historically low level of available silver inventory, which has made it difficult to meet sudden large-scale withdrawal demands [5][6]. Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The current market conditions have led to a situation where the spot price of silver is trading at a premium over futures prices, reflecting a willingness to pay higher prices for immediate physical delivery [5][6]. - The trading volume for silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange in September was 27.51 million contracts, a 125.59% increase month-over-month, indicating heightened market activity [9]. Broader Precious Metals Context - Gold prices also reached a new high of $4,200.23 per ounce, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global trade tensions [10]. - The strong performance of silver is attributed to robust industrial demand from sectors such as consumer electronics, electric vehicles, and photovoltaics, which has outpaced that of gold [11]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while silver prices have reached historic highs, there may be a risk of short-term price corrections due to the influx of physical silver into London and potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy [12]. - The macroeconomic fundamentals supporting precious metal prices, such as ongoing central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks, remain intact, suggesting that the upward price trend may continue despite potential volatility [12].

Core Point - The article discusses the potential cooling of gold prices, highlighting three key signals that may indicate a turning point for the market [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a critical factor influencing gold prices, with current high prices largely driven by strong expectations for interest rate cuts [2] - A divergence between market expectations and official statements from the Fed poses risks, as seen in past instances where over-optimistic rate cut expectations led to significant price drops [2] - Historical patterns show that tightening monetary policy by the Fed has historically been detrimental to gold prices, with examples from 1980 and 2013 illustrating this relationship [2] Group 2: Dollar Credit and Safe-Haven Demand - The long-term pricing of gold is closely tied to the credibility of the US dollar, while short-term fluctuations are heavily influenced by safe-haven demand [3] - A recovery in dollar credit could diminish gold's appeal as an alternative asset, particularly if the US effectively reduces its fiscal deficit [3] - The retreat of safe-haven demand can lead to short-term selling pressure on gold, as evidenced by historical instances where geopolitical tensions eased, resulting in price declines [4] Group 3: Market Signals - Current market indicators suggest a potential short-term turning point, with noticeable signs of capital withdrawal from gold investments [5] - A decline in open interest in gold futures and a reduction in holdings in major gold ETFs indicate that large investors are exiting positions, contrasting with retail investors who are still buying [5] - Technical analysis shows a divergence in momentum indicators, suggesting weakening buying pressure, with critical support levels potentially at risk of being breached [5][6] Conclusion - The article concludes that a short-term correction in gold prices is likely, driven by signals from the Federal Reserve, changes in dollar credit, and market dynamics [8] - Despite potential short-term declines, the long-term outlook for gold remains supported by strategic purchases by central banks and ongoing uncertainties in the global economy [8]

Group 1 - The prices of U.S. Treasury bonds have risen slightly due to market expectations of continued interest rate declines and heightened demand for safer assets amid escalating U.S.-China trade tensions [1][3] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by 2 basis points to 4.01%, potentially reaching its lowest level since early April if it drops below 4% [1][3] - The yield on the 2-year Treasury bond decreased by 1 basis point to 3.47%, nearing levels not seen in three years [1][3] Group 2 - Since the escalation of trade negotiation tensions last week, the prices of U.S. Treasury bonds have increased, with yields cumulatively dropping over 10 basis points [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed may consider another rate cut later this month due to signs of economic weakness, which further supported U.S. Treasury prices [3] - Global bond markets have also strengthened, with strong demand for Japan's 20-year bonds and optimism surrounding French bonds amid political stability [3] Group 3 - According to Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone, current U.S. Treasury yield levels suggest that investors expect the federal funds rate to decrease from approximately 4.25% to 3% by mid-next year [3] - Brown noted that unless there are renewed fears of economic growth due to potential tariffs proposed by Trump, yields are unlikely to drop significantly further [4] - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming manufacturing data and speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers [4] Group 4 - Due to the ongoing government shutdown causing data delays, key inflation data originally scheduled for release on Wednesday has been postponed to October 24 [5]

来源：经观APP 黄金目前的价位还能再买吗？资金正在用行动投票。10月15日，国际金价再创历史新高，纽约期金突破 4200美元/盎司。黄金走势将会如何？对于普通投资者而言，是机会还是风险？截至发稿前，COMEX黄 金为4228美元/盎司。 国际金价以令人瞩目的速度持续攀升。继10月7日突破4000美元/盎司关口后，仅一周多时间，便于10月 15日成功站上4200美元/盎司，再度刷新历史纪录。 在10月7日的文章（《黄金突破4000美元，是周期顶点还是新起点？》）中，我们提问，这是黄金的周 期顶点还是新起点？并给出观点：金价或有进一步的上涨空间。其逻辑在于：黄金作为最终支付手段和 信用锚定资产，其战略意义正被重新评估。历史上，黄金储备与主权货币信用密切相关。在布雷顿森林 体系解体后，黄金虽不再与美元直接挂钩，但其作为"无国籍货币"的属性，使其在危机时期始终具备不 可替代的流动性与信任基础。 地缘政治风险的持续发酵与宏观经济前景的不确定性，共同构筑了金价坚实的避险基础。中美贸易摩擦 再现升级苗头，叠加美国政府仍未完全解除的停摆危机，持续推高市场的忧虑情绪。东方金诚研究发展 部高级副总监白雪对此分析，当前中美贸易战 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices continue to rise, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to global trade tensions [1] Group 1: Gold Price Movements - London spot gold prices reached a new high of $4200.23 per ounce during trading [1] - As of 15:10 Beijing time, London spot gold was reported at $4200.14 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.4% [1] - New York commodity exchange's December gold futures were trading above $4200 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.32% [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Geopolitical and economic uncertainties, expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and a surge in gold purchases by central banks of major economies have contributed to the rise in international gold prices [1] - The increase in gold ETF holdings has also played a significant role in driving up gold prices, which have surged over 55% this year [1] Group 3: Future Price Predictions - Analysts from Bank of America and Société Générale predict that gold prices could reach $5000 per ounce by 2026 [1] - Standard Chartered has raised its average gold price forecast for next year to $4488 per ounce [1]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have surpassed $4,100 per ounce for the first time, marking a year-to-date increase of over 50%, making it one of the best-performing assets globally [1] Group 1: Price Movement - The recent surge in gold prices began in late August, with London spot gold prices rising more than 23.2% from August 21 to October 14 [1] Group 2: Driving Factors - Increased global risk aversion and declining confidence in the US dollar are the main drivers behind the current rise in gold prices [1] - The expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the US government shutdown, and geopolitical tensions have catalyzed safe-haven trading [1] - Continuous gold purchases by central banks worldwide have also been a key factor in driving up gold prices [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - Most market institutions predict that gold prices may continue to strengthen, supported by potential further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, high US government debt burdens, and increasing geopolitical risks [1] - According to the World Gold Council, global official gold reserves increased by 166 tons in the second quarter, reaching historical highs [1]

Core Insights - The current gold market is experiencing a strong cycle driven by "safe-haven demand + policy expectations," with technical breakthroughs opening up upward space after reaching historical highs [2] - Geopolitical tensions and Federal Reserve policy movements are key variables influencing short-term gold prices [2] - The global economic trend of "de-dollarization" and restructuring of the monetary credit system will continue to strengthen gold's strategic position in the medium to long term [2] Price Movements - As of October 15, 2025, spot gold prices surged by 1% to $4,186.61, while New York futures rose to $4,205.80, setting a new historical high [1] - The latest international gold spot price is $4,184 per ounce, equivalent to approximately ¥958 per gram [2] - Gold T+D is reported at ¥953.8 per gram, up by ¥11.95, a rise of 1.27% [3] - Shanghai gold main contract is priced at ¥956.74 per gram, increasing by ¥16.1, a rise of 1.71%, also reaching a historical high [3] Retail Prices - Retail prices for physical gold from brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang exceed ¥1,230 per gram, with daily increases ranging from 1.65% to 1.99% [3] - Bank investment gold bar prices range between ¥959 and ¥988 per gram, with increases of 0.73% to 2.54% [3]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing increased risk aversion due to rising trade concerns and geopolitical tensions, leading to a decline in the USD/JPY exchange rate below 151.50, with a focus on whether the 151.20 support level will hold [1] - Asian countries have announced special port fees on US vessels and tightened export controls, exacerbating fears of a deteriorating global trade environment, while President Trump threatens to impose tariffs up to 100% on goods from Asian countries [1] - The US government shutdown has entered its third week, with a temporary funding bill pushed by Republicans failing to pass, contributing to ongoing fiscal deadlock [1] Group 2 - The recent dissolution of the ruling coalition in Japan has created political uncertainty, leading to expectations that the Bank of Japan may delay its planned interest rate hikes, which could limit the appreciation of the yen [2] - Technical analysis indicates that after a strong upward trend, the USD/JPY exchange rate has paused, with a long bearish candle suggesting a potential reversal, which may lead to a rebound in the yen [3] - Key observation points for the USD/JPY exchange rate include 152.10 as a significant level, with support at 151.00, which is the high from August 1 and the low of the recent bearish candle [3]

近期，金价屡创新高。截至10月14日11时41分，现货 黄金 （伦敦金现）报4162.12美元/盎司，涨幅为 0.95%。此前，10月13日晚间，现货黄金站上4100美元/盎司关口，年内每盎司上涨超1400美元，涨幅超 56%，涨幅超过1980年以来的所有年份。受国际金价影响，10月14日国内珠宝品牌足金首饰价格也出现 上涨。从已更新的情况来看，当天 周生生 、 周大福 、老庙黄金等足金 饰品 价格已站上1200元/克的高 位。社交媒体上"囤金"热潮涌动，投资者跟风追高情绪升温。在此背景下， 建设 银行 、 工商银行 等 多家银行密集发布 贵金属 风险提示。 金价上涨的行情还能走多远？金价冲高后会不会回调？此时买入合不合适？且看记者的相关调查采访。 最新行情: 短暂下跌后重拾升势 年内已涨超56% 近日，黄金价格持续创新高。10月8日，黄金价格历史性地突破4000美元/盎司大关。10月9日，COMEX 黄金经历大跌后，10月10日又重拾升势并再次突破4000美元关口。10月13日晚间，金价持续走高，其 中，COMEX黄金12月合约升破4100美元/盎司，涨2.5%；现货黄金报4082.09美元/盎司，涨1.6 ...