Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - During the week of September 8 - 12, 2025, the PTA price in the futures market showed an oscillatory correction. The TA spot price was mainly adjusted oscillatory under the influence of international oil prices. The operating rate of TA factories rebounded to around 75%. There is an expected increase in supply. The current main market contradiction is the insufficient demand for crude oil, and the weak rebound momentum of crude oil may affect the rebound of TA prices [1] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Price - Due to weak energy prices and technical support, international oil prices are weak, making it difficult to support futures prices. The PTA main 01 contract fell 0.51%, with the highest price reaching 4,712 yuan/ton and the lowest dropping to 4,620 yuan/ton, finally closing at 4,648 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the PTA main 01 contract last week was 2,692,505 lots, and the trading volume continued to decline, with the market enthusiasm weakening [2] 1.2 Variety Market - The weekly PTA futures market continued to show a situation where far - month contracts were relatively strong. The price fluctuations of far - month contracts remained relatively stable, above 4,700 yuan/ton. The price of TA2510 was relatively low, indicating that the spot price was relatively weak, and market pessimism still existed. With a relatively high absolute inventory level and large fundamental market pressure, in the context of weak international energy, near - month contracts may continue to follow the spot to stay weak [4] 2. Spot Market 2.1 Spot Market - The PTA market in East China showed a range - bound trend. The decline rate of TA spot slowed down as international oil prices rebounded over the weekend. The negotiation atmosphere in the PTA spot market was cautious, with few actual purchases from the polyester end. The basis was running weakly. The offer of main port goods for this week and next week was at a discount of about 75 yuan/ton to the futures TA2601. The spot negotiation price was between 4,580 - 4,630 yuan/ton. The average basis in major domestic production areas remained around - 80 yuan/ton, and actual procurement was still weak [6][7] 2.2 Basis Data - The spot price remained weak this week, with a negative and relatively weak basis. The futures price was at a premium, and the spot market was relatively pessimistic. On one hand, the absolute inventory level of PTA was still high, and the spot pressure was large. On the other hand, the technical support of international oil prices was insufficient, resulting in insufficient cost support. The far - month contracts had relatively high energy demand in the cold season, promoting price premiums [8] 2.3 Registered Warehouse Receipts - According to Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange data, the number of registered PTA warehouse receipts continued to decline last week, and the decline accelerated. As of September 12, it dropped to 9,893 lots. In addition to seasonal factors, the continuous decrease in warehouse receipts reflects that the current futures - spot price difference and delivery cost are not sufficient to stimulate hedging motivation, and the cancellation of warehouse receipts has increased [10] 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Fundamental Influencing Factors - TA inventory has been reduced, but the supply of TA has rebounded, and the efficiency of future inventory reduction may decrease. With insufficient energy cost support and weak demand, crude oil prices are oscillating weakly. In the current weak supply - demand cycle, the upward momentum of energy in the future is insufficient, which may suppress the rebound of TA prices. The operating rate of factories has rebounded, and there may be an increase in supply after the maintenance in some production areas is completed [12] 3.2 Technical Analysis - On the weekly K - line, the buying power is insufficient, the trading volume is shrinking, and the follow - up momentum is weak, which may continue the oscillatory and weak state. The current main 01 contract may continue to oscillate and consolidate, accumulating market momentum, and the technical support has weakened. The main risk is the insufficient support of energy prices, which may drive the TA market to weaken [13] 4. Market Outlook - Entering the "Golden September and Silver October" period, the expected influence on the TA market is gradually expanding. In the short - term, the price will mainly fluctuate with energy. In the long - term, the market may trade based on the logic of interest rate cuts. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates is increasing, which may gradually improve market expectations. Overseas energy prices are weak, and technically, the support is still weak, so there is still pressure for TA to follow and adjust. Currently, crude oil is relatively weak, and without cost support, it is difficult for TA to achieve a continuous rebound. Considering the uncertainty of crude oil prices and the relatively high inventory level of TA, it is expected that the PTA futures market will continue to oscillate [15][17]

Core Viewpoint - In August, the sales prices of commercial residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China showed a month-on-month decline, but the year-on-year decline continued to narrow, indicating a potential stabilization in the real estate market [1][2]. Price Changes - In first-tier cities, new commercial residential property prices decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1]. - Second-tier cities saw new commercial residential property prices decrease by 0.3% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points [1]. - Third-tier cities experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.4% in new commercial residential property prices, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points [1]. - Second-hand residential property prices in first-tier cities decreased by 1.0% month-on-month, remaining unchanged from the previous month [1]. - Second-tier cities' second-hand residential property prices decreased by 0.6% month-on-month, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points [1]. - Third-tier cities' second-hand residential property prices decreased by 0.5% month-on-month, remaining unchanged from the previous month [1]. Investment and Sales Data - From January to August, national real estate development investment reached 60,309 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 12.9% [1]. - The sales area of new commercial residential properties from January to August was 57,304 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 4.7% [1]. - The sales revenue of new commercial residential properties was 55,015 billion yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year [1]. Market Outlook - The deputy director of the Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, Yan Yujin, emphasized the need for local governments to actively implement measures to boost the real estate market during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, aiming to stabilize the market and stimulate housing demand [1].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Shanghai shows a notable performance amidst a differentiated adjustment in the national market, with new residential prices increasing while second-hand prices decline [1][4]. Group 1: New Residential Market - In August, Shanghai was the only first-tier city to experience a month-on-month increase in new residential prices, rising by 0.4%, compared to a 0.3% increase in July, while the year-on-year growth slightly decreased from 6.1% to 5.9% [1][2]. - The influx of high-quality improvement-type housing in core areas of Shanghai has significantly boosted sales, with some popular projects experiencing immediate sales upon launch, contributing to the overall price increase [3]. - Policy incentives, such as the relaxation of purchase restrictions and lower mortgage rates, have instilled confidence in buyers, further stimulating demand in the new housing market [3][6]. Group 2: Second-hand Residential Market - The second-hand housing market in Shanghai saw a month-on-month decline of 1.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, reflecting a broader trend of adjustment across the national market [4][5]. - Despite the overall decline, certain segments of the second-hand market, particularly larger residential communities and properties near transit lines, are showing signs of stabilization in transactions and prices [5]. - The overall market sentiment is improving, as indicated by a 2.8% increase in the real estate agency industry’s prosperity index, suggesting a gradual recovery in market demand [5]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The market is expected to end the downward trend observed since June, with an anticipated increase in transaction volumes during the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" [6]. - Long-term prospects include accelerated progress in affordable housing refinancing and demand release from urban village redevelopment, which are expected to inject new momentum into the market [6].

9月15日，国家统计局公布2025年8月份70个大中城市住房价格指数。8月，武汉新房、二手房价格降幅同步收窄。其中，新建商品住 房价格环比降幅较上月收窄0.2个百分点，同比降幅较上月收窄0.3个百分点；二手住房环比降幅也较上月收窄0.2个百分点。专家分析指 出，武汉8月房地产市场虽处传统淡季，但从数据来看，降幅仍在持续收窄，可见市场信心提振明显，呈现回暖态势。 15日上午10时30分，长江日报记者探访位于武昌滨江板块的武汉城建·江南岸项目看到，洽谈区座无虚席，样板间参观需排队取号，置 业顾问步履匆匆，水吧饮品供应不断，整个空间人声鼎沸却秩序井然，购房者热情高涨。记者在样板间采访的短短半个小时内，就先后来 了四五组看房人群。 该项目销售负责人丁涛介绍，自8月15日起开放营销中心，当月来访约2100组，9月首周来访646组。9月13日开盘推出142套住宅，仅2 个小时就销售90％，销售额突破5.08亿元，成为该板块热度最高的项目之一。"我们的来访客群以30至45岁、改善型购房为主，他们对居住 品质要求特别高。" 架空层被打造成儿童游乐区。记者冷靖华 摄 "我更喜欢143平方米户型的可变空间设计，符合'好房子'的特 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the real estate market is expected to end the downward trend since June and see a recovery in transaction volume with the arrival of the traditional peak season "Golden September and Silver October" and favorable policies [1][8] - In August, Shanghai's new residential prices increased by 0.4% month-on-month, expanding from a 0.3% increase in July, while the year-on-year growth slightly decreased from 6.1% to 5.9%, indicating a strong performance in the real estate market [1][3] - The second-hand housing market in Shanghai saw a month-on-month decline of 1.0% and a year-on-year decline of 2.6%, reflecting a broader trend of adjustment in the national second-hand housing market [5][7] Group 2 - The increase in new home prices in Shanghai is attributed to the concentration of high-quality improvement-type housing in core areas and the relaxation of purchase restrictions outside the outer ring, which has effectively activated market demand [3][7] - The real estate market is showing signs of bottoming out, with the real estate brokerage industry prosperity index rising by 2.8% to 47.26 in August, marking the largest monthly increase of the year [7][8] - The market is expected to gain new momentum from the acceleration of the implementation of affordable housing refinancing and the monetization of urban village renovations, which will inject new vitality into the market [8]

Group 1 - In August, housing prices in 70 major cities in China showed a month-on-month decline, but the year-on-year decline continued to narrow [1][2] - First-tier cities saw new residential prices decrease by 0.1% month-on-month, with Shanghai increasing by 0.4% while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced declines of 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.4% respectively [1] - Second-tier cities' new residential prices fell by 0.3% month-on-month, and third-tier cities saw a 0.4% decline, with the latter's decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points [1] Group 2 - Year-on-year, first-tier cities' new residential prices decreased by 0.9%, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Second and third-tier cities experienced year-on-year declines of 2.4% and 3.7% respectively, with both declines also narrowing [1] - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with an increase in the real estate agency industry index by 2.8 to 47.26, marking the largest monthly increase this year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is showing signs of stabilization despite fluctuations due to domestic and international factors, with a reduction in inventory and a narrowing decline in sales and prices [3][4]. Sales Performance - From January to August 2023, the total sales area of new commercial housing reached 57,304 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%. The sales amount was 55,015 billion yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year [3]. - As of the end of August, the unsold commercial housing area was 76,169 million square meters, a decrease of 3.17 million square meters from the end of July, indicating a continuous reduction in inventory for six months [3]. Price Trends - In August, new residential sales prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, while second-tier and third-tier cities saw declines of 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. Year-on-year declines were 0.9%, 2.4%, and 3.7% for the three tiers [4][5]. - The number of cities with rising new home prices increased to 9 in August, compared to 6 in July, indicating a potential recovery in certain markets [4][5]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - The reduction in unsold housing inventory is seen as beneficial for balancing supply and demand, with some projects entering the completed phase, enhancing sales potential [3][5]. - The narrowing year-on-year price decline suggests that the market is moving towards a bottoming process, with some properties showing signs of price stabilization [5]. Policy Impact - Various policies have been introduced at both central and local levels to stimulate the market, including optimized purchase restrictions in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai [6]. - Following the new policies, Shenzhen reported a 19% week-on-week increase in second-hand housing transactions, indicating a positive market response [6]. Market Outlook - The market is entering the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October," with expectations for increased activity as developers accelerate project launches, particularly for new products [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market is experiencing intense supply - demand competition and is expected to trade in a range. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season has arrived, with downstream polyolefin operating rates improving month - on - month, especially in the agricultural film sector. However, due to supply pressure and weakening crude oil prices, polyolefin prices have been declining. Terminal demand is still improving, and there is an expectation of price increase in the future. It is expected that the LL main contract will trade between 7200 - 7500, the PP will trade between 6900 - 7200, and the LP spread will widen [8]. - The supply - demand contradiction in plastics has eased, and there is strong support at the bottom. For PP, the upward trend faces significant pressure, and it is expected to be weak and fluctuate in the short term [8][9][47]. Summary by Directory Plastic 1. Market Review - On September 12, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7169 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.05%. The average prices of LDPE, HDPE, and LLDPE in South China all decreased slightly. The LLDPE South China basis widened, and the 9 - 1 month spread narrowed [10]. 2. Key Data Tracking - **Month - spread**: On September 12, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 12 yuan/ton (unchanged), the 5 - 9 month spread was 131 yuan/ton (+40), and the 9 - 1 month spread was - 119 yuan/ton (-40) [18]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of various types of plastics in different regions showed different degrees of decline [19][20]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil closed at $62.11 per barrel, up $0.14 from last week, and Brent crude oil closed at $66.88 per barrel, up $1.21 from last week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1050 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [22]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 220 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton from last week, and the profit of coal - based PE was 931 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton [26]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of polyethylene production in China this week was 78.04%, down 2.51 percentage points from last week, and the weekly output was 61.28 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.11%. The maintenance loss this week was 14.62 tons, an increase of 2.29 tons from last week [30]. - **2025 Production Plan**: A total of 15 projects are planned to be put into production in 2025, with a total capacity of 613 tons [33]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' devices are under maintenance, and the maintenance time of some devices is uncertain [34]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of domestic agricultural films this week was 24.12%, up 3.94% from last week; the operating rate of PE packaging films was 51.30%, up 0.82% from last week, and the operating rate of PE pipes was 31.67%, up 1.34% from last week [36]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear films is the highest, accounting for 32.8%, and the difference from the annual average level is 2.7%. The difference between low - pressure injection molding and the annual average data is obvious, currently accounting for 8.5%, and the difference from the annual average level is 3.7% [41]. - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 56.03 tons, a decrease of 0.02 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04% [42]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 12, the number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 12,525 lots, an increase of 4,262 lots from last week [45]. PP 1. Market Review - On September 12, the closing price of the PP main contract was 6913 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton from last week. The prices of various PP products across the country also decreased [48][51]. 2. Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of PP granules, PP powder, PE, PVC powder, PVC paste, and PS all showed different degrees of change compared with the previous period [53]. - **Basis**: On September 12, the spot price of PP reported by Shengyi was 7106.67 yuan/ton (-0.09%). The PP basis was 194 yuan/ton (+41), and the basis widened. The 9 - 1 month spread was - 126 yuan/ton (-14), and the month spread narrowed [55]. - **Month - spread**: On September 12, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 23 yuan/ton (-8), the 5 - 9 month spread was 149 yuan/ton (+22), and the 9 - 1 month spread was - 126 yuan/ton (-14) [64]. - **Cost**: The same as the cost data of plastics, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices increased, and the price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port decreased [66]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 322.17 yuan/ton, an increase of 67.84 yuan/ton from last week, and the profit of coal - based PP was 490.20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.73 yuan/ton from last week [70]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises this week was 76.83%, down 3.08 percentage points from last week. The weekly output of PP granules was 78.67 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.35%, and the weekly output of PP powder was 5.99 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.87% [73]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many PP production lines of various enterprises are under maintenance, and the maintenance time of some devices is uncertain [77]. - **Demand**: The average downstream operating rate this week was 50.86% (+0.63). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 43.10% (+0.40), the operating rate of BOPP was 61.55% (+0.12%), the operating rate of injection molding was 58.06% (+0.08%), and the operating rate of pipes was 36.67% (+0.17%) [79]. - **Import and Export Profit**: This week, the PP import profit was - 500.86 US dollars/ton, an increase of 83.04 US dollars/ton compared with last week, and the export profit was - 3.60 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.40 US dollars/ton compared with last week [84]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic PP inventory was 57.51 tons (-1.17%); the inventory of the two major oil companies decreased by 0.99% month - on - month; the inventory of traders increased by 4.97% month - on - month; and the port inventory increased by 0.68% month - on - month. The finished product inventory of large - scale plastic - weaving enterprises was 1026.30 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.30%, and the BOPP raw material inventory was 9.52 days, a month - on - month increase of 6.25% [88][92]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On September 12, the number of PP warehouse receipts was 13,706 lots, a decrease of 43 lots from last week [96].

国家统计局的数据显示，8月份，70个大中城市中，新房价格环比上涨城市增加，一、二线城市新房价 格同环比降幅收窄。 数据显示，8月份，一线城市新房价格环比下降0.1%，降幅比上月收窄0.1个百分点。其中，上海上涨 0.4%，北京、广州和深圳分别下降0.4%、0.2%和0.4%。二线城市新房价格环比下降0.3%，降幅收窄0.1 个百分点。三线城市新房价格环比下降0.4%，降幅扩大0.1个百分点。 从二手房来看，8月份，一线城市二手房价环比下降1.0%，降幅与上月相同。其中，北京、上海、广州 和深圳分别下降1.2%、1.0%、0.9%和0.8%。二线城市二手房价格环比下降0.6%，降幅扩大0.1个百分 点。三线城市二手房价格环比下降0.5%，降幅与上月相同。 8月份，新房价格环比上涨的城市有9个，比上月增加3个。其中，上海、杭州、宜昌涨幅均为0.4%，并 列第一；南宁涨幅为0.3%，位列第二；沈阳、合肥、吉林涨幅均为0.2%，并列第三。另外，二手房价 环比上涨的城市只有长春1个，涨幅为0.1%。 同比来看，8月份，一线城市新房价格同比下降0.9%，降幅比上月收窄0.2个百分点。其中，上海上涨 5.9%，北京、广州和 ...

Core Insights - The national real estate market in August continued to show a differentiated adjustment trend, with policy benefits gradually becoming evident and market confidence showing positive changes, indicating a clearer market bottom and laying the foundation for the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - In first-tier cities, the decline in new home prices has shown signs of narrowing, with new residential sales prices decreasing by 0.1% month-on-month, a reduction of 0.1 percentage points compared to July, indicating resilience in core city markets [1] - Shanghai experienced a month-on-month increase in new home prices of 0.4%, attributed to the concentration of quality improvement-type housing in core areas and the relaxation of purchase restrictions in outer areas, which effectively stimulated demand [1] Group 2: Three-tier City Challenges - Third-tier cities face significant inventory pressure due to previous years' stimulus policies leading to oversupply, and the support for these cities is relatively weaker compared to first and second-tier cities, limiting their self-adjustment capabilities [1] - Although measures such as converting existing housing into affordable housing have alleviated some inventory pressure, the direct effects of policies are gradually weakening due to continuously decreasing demand [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The real estate brokerage industry’s prosperity index rose by 2.8 to 47.26 in August, marking the largest single-month increase of the year, with new and second-hand housing search heat slightly increasing by 0.6 and 1.0 respectively compared to July, signaling positive market sentiment [2] - It is anticipated that September may end the downward trend observed since June, with transaction volumes expected to rebound as the traditional peak season approaches, supported by favorable policies [2] - In the medium to long term, the acceleration of the implementation of affordable housing refinancing and the monetization of urban village renovations are expected to inject new momentum into the market [2]