Market Overview - Domestic precious metal futures experienced an overall increase, with the main Shanghai gold price at 785.14 CNY per gram, up by 0.47%, and the main Shanghai silver price at 8215.00 CNY per kilogram, up by 0.12% [1] - In contrast, international precious metal futures saw a decline, with COMEX gold priced at 3325.80 USD per ounce, down by 0.86%, and COMEX silver at 33.34 USD per ounce, down by 0.18% [1] Price Movement - On April 29, 2025, the opening, highest, and lowest prices for the main Shanghai gold were 782.90 CNY, 794.66 CNY, and 780.52 CNY per gram respectively [2] - The main Shanghai silver had opening, highest, and lowest prices of 8190.00 CNY, 8258.00 CNY, and 8176.00 CNY per kilogram respectively [2] - For COMEX gold, the opening, highest, and lowest prices were 3354.90 USD, 3359.30 USD, and 3314.80 USD per ounce respectively [2] - COMEX silver had opening, highest, and lowest prices of 33.40 USD, 33.50 USD, and 33.10 USD per ounce respectively [2] Economic Context - Recent observations indicate that U.S. President Trump's "pain threshold" is becoming a key factor limiting his potential market disruptions, as he has retreated from aggressive stances in response to financial market pressures [3] - Trump's concessions include postponing a planned tariff policy for 90 days after bond market volatility and retracting threats to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell amid declines in the stock market, bond market, and U.S. dollar [3] - These adjustments reflect the reality of economic interests, as stock market performance impacts his political image and public pensions, while bond market stability is crucial for government financing and his signature tax cuts [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - As of April 28, 2025, COMEX gold closed at 3354.8 USD per ounce, with a gain of 1.71%, while domestic SHFE gold closed at 793.68 CNY per gram, up by 1.57% [4] - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in May is 91.1%, with an 8.9% chance of a 25 basis point cut [4] - The likelihood of the Fed keeping rates unchanged until June is 37.4%, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut probability of 57.3% and a 50 basis point cut probability of 5.3% [4]

原油：多空交织反复，油价震荡反弹 正信期货原油周报 20250428 研究员：付馨苇 从业资格编号：F03101045 Email: fuxw@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 研究员：赵婷 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 内容要点 Ø 宏观方面：美国关税政策仍存不确定性，美伊谈判结果的反复也加剧市场波动。据CME"美联储观察" ：美联储5月 维持当前利率不变的概率为91.7%，降息25个基点的概率为8.3%。美联储6月维持当前利率不变的概率为37.3%，降息 25个基点的概率为57.8%，降息50个基点的概率为4.9%。 Ø 供应端：地缘方面，美国对伊朗制裁措施还未完全落地，关注美伊暂定于5月3日举行的高级别会议，其结果将决定 制裁力度。欧佩克方面，欧佩克及其减产同盟国希望考虑在6月份继续加快石油产量增长，虽有成员国根据前期超产 情况提交补偿计划，但哈萨克斯坦称产油国利益大于同盟国利益，补偿减产或难落地，关注5月5日欧佩克会议。 Ø 需求端：美国油品即将进入季节性旺季，炼化端因提前备货开工率回升，美汽油裂解价差季 ...

银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 4 月 28 日星期一 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：上周五，贵金属回吐前日涨幅。鉴于避险情绪降温和美元坚挺 | | 研究员：王伟 | 伦敦金收跌 0.9%，报 3318.62 美元/盎司。伦敦银在 33 美元关口波动，最终收跌 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 1.53%，报 33.1 元/盎司。受外盘驱动，沪金主力合约收跌 0.77%，报 785.34 元/克，沪 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 银主力合约收跌 0.93%，报 8217 元/千克。 | | | 2.美元指数：美元指数横向盘整，最终收涨 0.09%，报 99.47。 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 3.美债收益率：10 年期美债收益率回落，收报 4.26%。 | | 期货从业证号：F03110758 | 4.人民币汇 ...

更新时间：2025年04月28日08时11分 | 原油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 指标 较上日 较上周 | | 单位 | 4月25日 | | | | | | 绝对值 百分比 绝对值 百分比 | | | | | | | | | Sc 2.70 原油期货 | | 元/桶 | 496.10 | | 0.55% | 5.40 | 1.10% | | 0.40 | WTI | 美元/桶 | 63.17 | | 0.64% | #N/A | #N/A | | 0.41 | Brent | 美元/桶 | 66.91 | | 0.62% | #N/A | #N/A | | 0.01 | Sc-WTI | 美元/桶 | 5.67 | | 0.09% | #N/A | #N/A | | 内外价差 | Sc-Brent | 美元/桶 | 1.93 | -0.00 | -0.26% | #N/A | #N/A | | 1.81 | Brent-WTI | 美元/桶 | 3.74 | | 93.32% | #N/A ...

智通财经4月28日电，据CME"美联储观察"： 美联储5月维持利率不变的概率为90.3%，降息25个基点的 概率为9.7%。美联储到6月维持利率不变的概率为35.5%，累计降息25个基点的概率为58.6%，累计降息 50个基点的概率为5.9%。 美联储5月维持利率不变的概率为90.3% ...

【锌】五一假期临近，市场备货意愿一般。基本面来看，秘鲁一大型铜矿出现异动，叠加国内社库持续 录减，情绪转好与库存低位暂支撑锌价；但传统旺季临近尾声，镀锌下游订单低于往年同期水平，需求 疲软令锌价承压。整体看下周锌价或延续震荡区间，关注2.24-2.32万。 【锡】本周现货锡价震荡上行，周涨幅2.33%。宏观面来看，周初市场对美联储独立性存疑，美元承压 低位运行，叠加特朗普对华关税态度缓和，市场紧张情绪有所缓解，带动锡价重心上移。基本面来看， 刚果（金）Bisie锡矿虽已恢复运营，但需要一定时间进行转化，叠加佤邦虽于周三开展曼相矿山复工 复产座谈会，但具体复产时间不定，短期供紧格局难改，支撑锡价。需求端看，近期锡价小幅上涨，但 镀锡板及锡化工产品市场需求平稳。关注佤邦复产情况以及宏观面消息。预计下周锡价延续震荡走势， 关注锡价25.5-27万区间。 【镍】本周内镍铁主流报价在975-1000元/镍点之间，市场成交价格持续走低。镍板现货方面，持货商 积极出货，下游用家刚需采购，实际成交一般。精炼镍两市库存压力犹存，不锈钢成品需求尚未见大幅 好转，印尼镍产品增税新政下落地，下周现货镍价或有小幅走高，建议关注12.5 ...

Inflation Data - The core CPI inflation rate in the U.S. fell to 0.06% in March, down 0.17 percentage points from February, significantly below the market expectation of 0.3%[1] - Overall CPI growth turned negative at -0.05% in March, down from 0.22% in February, also below the market expectation of 0.1%[1] - Year-on-year, the overall CPI and core CPI decreased by 0.4 and 0.3 percentage points to 2.4% and 2.8%, respectively[1] Employment Data - Non-farm payrolls increased by 228,000 in March, exceeding market expectations of 140,000 and significantly up from 117,000 in February[2] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.15% in March, compared to 4.14% in February[2] Tariff Impact - The weighted average tariff rate in the U.S. increased from 20.5% to 25.9% since Trump's administration, potentially raising inflation by 1.1 to 2.3 percentage points[3] - If the "reciprocal tariff" policy is fully implemented, the inflation impact could rise to 1.4 to 2.7 percentage points[3] Interest Rate Outlook - The forecast remains for 2-3 rate cuts of 25 basis points each throughout the year, although uncertainty due to tariff policies has increased[4] - The Federal Reserve may need to observe the situation before making decisions, as tariffs could push inflation higher[5] Economic Risks - Risks include slow rate cuts leading to recession and the potential for stagflation due to aggressive tariff policies[6]